Going based off a memo at work today.
SO the SSA benefits question is really important in doing the math. They should download their report from SSA and take a look. But $5k a month if they start drawing benefits at age 67 is probably about right.
They estimate that they want to spend 8k a month in retirement. That leaves funding from age 63 (when the payout ends) until 67, or 4 years. And then $3k a month after that.
$8k *12 months/year *4 years = $384,000.
A $3k per month annuity for the rest of their lives is about $600k (a quote for what $100,000 payment would generate is at https://www.blueprintincome.com/income-annuities-quotes/immediate?birthDate=11-15-1963"eRunId=234ab3bd-8b4e-4e23-8aa4-4e88854c5a66&refundAtDeath=false&joint=true&jointBirthDate=11-21-1961&fundType=TRADITIONAL_IRA)
(Note that I wouldn't necessarily suggest getting a huge life annuity, but that gives you a sense of what it would cost to get guaranteed income. Note however there is no inflation adjustment)
Their retirement savings is well higher than that. Plus the $100k they have in cash now. Plus whatever he'd earn above the cost of health care. Plus the equity in the house.
Run some more precise numbers. But back of the envelope this looks easily doable.
>U.S. CONSIDERING RAISING TARIFF ON RUSSIAN ALUMINUM TO 200%; NO DECISION MADE, NO ANNOUNCEMENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK -U.S. OFFICIAL $AA
^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-02-06 ^16:04:59 ^EST-0500
Lol coulda bought better time. Im in way to early
I tried the alcohol cult. I even tried the crack cult. I kind of like my simple AA cult.
I am a speculative investor that likes taking high-risk high-reward plays.
Based off this, I have decided to buy 'AA' rated US government bonds instead of the usual 'AAA' ones for a 0.04% higher yield.
AA is a great resource lmao
You shouldnt hold them. Switch sides and make easy money, bulls are idiots buying the "dip" after aa fucking 13 year raging bull market
They will lose
Yeah and you're fucking wrong. You said half of bonds and then referred to AAA and AA rates, but AAA and AA corps are way, way less than half of the universe. And MSFT is a AAA name. So what the fuck do you think you're proving here beyond being illiterate?
TDF work well for tax-advantaged accounts while you’re in your accumulation phase. Once you’re close to retirement (or in retirement), I believe it makes most sense to manually directly control your AA, for the very reason that you control which assets you sell and which you hold.
To add to this, Enron heavily relied upon Arthur Andersen's sterling reputation for auditing to dupe investors. As a member of the Big Five auditing firms, this was a Big Deal. They did this by paying Arthur Andersen Consulting ludicrous amounts of money in "consulting fees". AAC then went and talked to the boring, reliable, auditing side of their business and conveyed that they shouldnt look too closely at the goose that was laying golden eggs (in the form of consulting fees).
Investors looked at Arthur Andersen's audits (which prior to Enron were one step below Jesus auditing your books), saw an unqualified audit, and looked no further.
After Enron imploded, Arthur Andersen became insolvent and the Big Five became the Big Four. Barbara Toffler wrote a great book called "Final Accounting" on the auditing and accounting side of this working for AA as its consulting arm completely screwed investors and bankrupted itself.
I thought the apes were specifically the ones still holding AMC and begging AA to stop diluting on them?
>I very strongly believe the US economy will go down (already is) and I also very strongly believe liquidity will continue declining and be a huge problem (money supply already dropping).
Short term yes, long term no, unless the US fails as a country to maintain it's AA+/AAA credit rating and the USD drops from being the worlds reserve currency.
The 7-10% returns of the S+P500 Index are typically annualized over 30+ years, not YoY.
Short term (12-18 months) I agree with you that we'll see a decline, as we're still vastly past where we should be (~3200-3600) based off both 7 (since 2016, high end) and 15 (2009, low end) year trends. A new trend did start in 2020 which puts the bottom higher @ closer to ~3650/3700, so I'd expect this to be a short term PT for a bottom (SPY 360-365) unless we create a new trend.
QT hasn't really started either, with the FED only having shed ~600B from it's hyper inflated 9T balance sheet since it's peak last April. They still have nearly 2.5T more to go by 2025, or around 100B/mo if they want to reach their target.
Lots of pain in the near term, especially with the job market ridiculously strong still. If unemployment spikes the FED may be forced to pivot on rates or at least hold off on QT for a while. Current rally is likely a fallacy/massive trap/shorts taking profits and repositioning from last year- the macroeconomic conditions don't make any sense for us to be back into a bull market yet.
I really respect both you and /u/UseNo1231 for posting screenshots.
I'ma go on the record and say he wins. but mad respect to you.
Since I'm allowed to post images have a picture of smoker lungs
Uhhh...says it's an inverse head and shoulders, shows me a symmetrical triangle...
No 50 large
Uber $40. Calls
I was thinking of putting this position down at open on Monday. GD has received Billions of confirmed contracts through government and private sectors in just the last week (that I’ve been able to read about)
I’d like your opinion.
’’😏😏😏💨💨💨💨💨💨👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👌👋👋👋👉🤫👈🖕🤡😈al thread _d1e8a61bb0b4862aa05c7eaeb5bf8de9474673e4f4cc4509822bc0c2875150_t500x500.jpeg
Position: Long Stock in El Chapo Gucci, Inc. Symbol: $LTSE MoCo Position: Long Stock in El Chapo Gucci, Inc. Symbol: $LTSE
Difference between thus and AA is that Adanis audit firm employs like 11 people for a 100 billion dollar company, there is no way 11 people can do an audit. AA was huge even by today's standard and was reputable up until the enron issue. In fact many of AA former partners are in the C suite e.g. UNH
He decided not to blow out his candles.
What you are describing happened in 99/00. The equity risk premium went to 0 and some investors upped their bond AA in response to it, including Bogle.
It is AA or NA for debt. It is a proven plan based on simple steps that anyone could use.
Where most seasoned money people actually have a problem with Dave's plan is the after you are out of debt part. The investing, credit card phobia, debt phobia, and religious stuff turn a lit of people away.
These are at current inflated market prices and they’re still sub 200k there were plenty 2010-2013 Lambo models in 2017-2018 between $150-175k that weren’t 570s.
2015 610 Huracan for $189k at dealer: https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=670467096
2017 Huracan for $199k at dealer: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/0cbae274-ed7a-4331-8aca-aa54e76cdae2/
2018 Huracan Spyder 179k at dealer: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/5643530e-4bed-4655-898d-18705d75db9a/
2016 610 $199k at dealer: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/fa3dd739-d5e6-439b-92ae-d6cdd4745255/
You just gotta shop around, if you’re looking for something with 1000-3000 miles on it, yeah you’re going to pay $250-400k for it. But theres tons of stuff out there in the 10-20k mile range for well under 200k, and incredibly well maintained.
I’ve been a car trader for going on 25 years, over that time I’ve owned just about one car from every manufacturer at one point or another, from american muscle to the most obscure European and Asian cars.
You have to be patient, willing to shop around, and haggle deals. I once went back and forth on the price of a 69 GTO Judge all original garage kept with only 9,200 miles on it for 2 years before I got it for the price I wanted.
But the further you are away from expiration, the more impact your delta as opposed to gamma will have for deep in the money options. Aa a result, you are not benefitting as much from convexity, albeit you are not paying as much for it in terms of theta.
I got a great haircut earlier where the dude took his time, great little barber shop, even cleaned up my facial hair and jaw/neck stranglers from not shaving for a little bit, and shampooed my hair then forming cream
Want to guess how much it costed?
$5.39 (once converted).
Tipped $1.08 (once converted) after.
Eggs? $1.99 for a carton of AA. Not even the cheapest ones either.
America is for suckers
I mean the FED could also mint the trillion dollar coin or whatever, the point is that just that Biden having to utilise executive powers will really rattle markets. Last time it happened under Obama the US was downgraded from AAA to AA.
What are they going to do? Entry level? There are companies that try to place people in positions that suit their special needs. If that is possible. There are training centers that again, put effort into placing people. There are schools, trade associations all that allow for free postings. Where are you? There are likely a local government agency or charity that works very hard to get people jobs. And you get to interact with the community. What do you do? Do you have a church? Do you go to AA? Do you go to trivia night? Tell the people you know that you are hiring, and they will suggest people that they like.
What’s going on with AMC. I thought AA was trying to hold it down.
Thank you so much this makes a lot of sense. I’m considering just scrapping the bonds all together and buying equities with the proceeds in the taxable. As far as harvesting the loss, is that something that is automatically calculated when selling at a capital loss or does it need to be reported somehow. Also, I might be out of luck harvesting the loss because I played around with my allocation a couple months ago a lot because things got out of whack when I bought more shares and had to end up buying/selling all of my ETFs to regain my desired AA. This may have triggered a wash sale so I’m not sure if I sell at a loss again if it’ll do anything.
PS5 has better AAA exclusives but with Microsoft’s gamepass they are churning out better and more AA games. Both companies are trying different strategies
well I tried to post to wallstreetbets but the gain is not 5,000 via options or 10k via stock since this is week 1. Anyway, here are results of my etrade core portfolio 1000.00 (initial balalnce) automated trading account, week 1 results. This is my lazy or rather laid back way of trading!
ETFs are slightly more tax efficient in your standard brokerage account. no mess up there.
take some time to organize your different portfolios. ALL of your different accounts 401k/IRA/taxable should sum up to your ideal asset allocation. for example:
work 401k can be 100% VTI
personal IRA can be 100%bonds
taxable can be 100% VXUS
if the dollar amounts line up with your AA; as goofy as this looks its perfect!
now most people cant get their different accounts perfectly aligned due to limited cash.....so portfolios might look like
401k = vti + vxus
IRA = vti + bonds
taxable = vti + vxus
Was this already covered?
Idk, it pays to be a bear sometimes though
thanks, yea it is kinda a weird headspace to be in, and good to know, i don’t think i’ll fly AA ever again
I will see you at the 7 am AA meeting prior to the casino opening up
Oof sorry to hear that. Being stuck is the strangest travel experiences. I’ve had more bad experiences with AA than any other carrier. Well, except United Air. 😅
Some gain porn for the day, here’s to not losing money for once.
No that other Steve ... Steve Waz.... One of the founders of AA I believe
extreme bets huh?
Downsize, and lay off the drugs(if you'rereligious or even believe a little, now is the time to get close to God). I was in your exact same spot brother. My company was barely maintaining and I was doing 8 balls of cocaine in 2 days. I'm going to link you my motivation playlist on Youtube. I want you to watch and listen. At home, in the car, in your earphones, whenever possible really. Do it for a week, just 1 whole wee. Promise me you will brother? Also, you're going to have to make the tough choice of having to fire some people, and live off less. I know you can't just quit drugs cold turkey, but scale it back day by day with the end goal of quitting completely. I didn't go to AA or anything, I simply told myself "no" again and again and again. There were definitely moments where I slipped up, went and grabbed a little gram for the night like a fool, but, I was no longer high and locked in my room away from my family all day. I was up, out, and alive. What you're doing is not living my friend, you're decomposing and rotting yourself with the drugs. Believe me! Say no, downsize, and try to take a small weekend vacation and try to come back to your senses. Look at yourself and think about how much better you were before the drugs. I also recommend praying every morning and every night. Thanking God for what you do have is important.
Better luck getting a therapist or going to AA.
149 kinda a pussy strike
Guess how much eggs are where I’m at (hint, far from Estados unidos)
For a carton of 12. Grade AA
Place your guesses below then reveal a see in spoiler. No cheating
#>!$1.99 USD, once converted. at todays rate. Travel credit card has no international fees :)!<
I sold some, and increased my Google Earnings play.
Here is your proof regard. 🤡
Just wanted to say thanks. After reading your post a few days ago I used the spare $40 in my account to buy 1 call. Good luck on your journey!
Thank you for this call!!!! Lots of hate in the comments but I’m glad I followed this, thank you for sharing your journey.
Made another $50k in the time it took you to bash someone else's post.
He called it fr
they're selling bonds. https://phxcapitalgroup.com/invest/
a bond is a loan. similar to a CD at the bank. they're very legit and very legal.
you give a loan to a company or government agency. your money is locked up for a period of time. they pay you a regular amount called the 'yield' or the 'coupon payment'. usually it's fixed-rate and usually pays 2x a year. at the end of the term, you get back the principle amount you lent the company.
bonds are usually considered safer than stocks. but there are risks.
one risk is 'default risk', if the company goes bankrupt or goes out of business you might not get back 100% of your bond. this is why you need to look for the bond rating, there are companies that estimate how stable a bond issuer is. AAA-rated is the best, AA is a little worse and down to BBB is the lowest bracket of 'investment grade' bonds. Anything BB or lower is considered a 'junk bond' or 'high yield debt'. these have higher default risk, these pay higher yield but there's also higher default risk.
the second risk with bonds is 'interest rate risk'. imagine you buy a bond that pays 4% for 5 years. now if the same issuer offers new bonds at 5% for 5 years, your old bond is less valuable.
the investors page for PHX group says they're high-yield bonds so lower than BBB rated. I'd stay away.
there are better options. you can buy bonds from the US Treasury Department that are as close to zero risk as we have in this world and IIRC they're paying ~4% or more for 12 months.
>that cut out the middle man
How confident are you that your asset allocation plan is THE exact best asset allocation for you?
Yeah, I'm not real confident of that for me either. I think I'm close, but I could easily be a few percentage points off. So, it really doesn't matter if my actual AA strays a bit from my plan.
OTOH, I'm retired & I like playing with my spreadsheets, so I rebalance quarterly. & the market knocks it out of whack the next day.
Bogle took his equity AA down before the 2000 crash.
I live in Los Angeles and if I had to go to San Diego every week, I'd much rather take the 2.5 hour drive. Getting to the airport right before departure so you aren't standing around, going through security, waiting at the gate, taxing for take off, flying, landing, deplaning, and then getting a car to drop you off at work will likely take just as long; a single delay is going to take much longer.
Status and miles are much easier to acquire now (relative to pre-pandemic). I fly with AA, they switched to spend based status a year ago with "loyalty points," and you can basically rack up status and miles by just spending money. There's also an even bigger bonus by getting points from hotel/car/travel bookings too.
My point is though, if you make enough money, what matters is your time, and spending money at a "problem" to maximize your time is worth it if you have the disposable income. If OP wants to save those 6 hours somewhere else by using the additional funds, lots of things can be done. Hire cleaners, get a laundry wash and fold service, use grocery/home shopping services, buy everything from Amazon, etc... Pay money to get all of the minutia out of your life so you can maximize your remaining time to do whatever you want.
I knew it was better to get aa hooker than buying puts 🤡
Either play the fed meeting or go to an AA meeting. I need some advice!
>then when the windfall comes from the sale of the company I just throw all of that in VTSAX (keeping some liquid of course, paying off the mortgage, etc).
Are you asking about this particular asset allocation or are you asking about the practical aspects of whether or not you can chuck all the money in a brokerage account?
If it's the former, I would personally go with a more conservative AA to focus on wealth preservation rather than maximum appreciation. You've already won the game.
If it's the latter, yes you can just put the money in a normal brokerage account. That's not so much money you need to consider anything special like some weird offshore bank in the Caymans.
Bonus answer to a question you didn't ask: be sure to structure the sale to minimize your tax bill. You probably already know that, but it's so much money that it bears repeating.
I'm not clear on what you're asking.
If rebalancing means you have less in an asset that later goes up, you won't gain as much.
If exchanging between funds means you have money in cash for awhile (even a day) & the assets you're buying go up in that time, you'll pay that higher price. (I usually rebalance by exchanging mutual funds, do I sell 1 & buy the other at the same time.)
Rebalancing is mostly about managing risks, not maximizing returns. I determine how much risk I want to take & set my asset allocation plan accordingly. When my actual AA gets away from my plan, I rebalance to get the level of risk I want.
I hope that helps. If not, perhaps you could give me an example of what you're asking about?
They are going to stay this high.
Let’s see if this works. 🤔
That's correct. I just lump summed my 2023 Roth as well.
I have Total US , Total International, and Total Bond spread across my Traditional IRA, Roth, and brokerage accounts. My Roth is entirely FSKAX. My Traditional (much larger) has FSKAX, FTIHX, and FXNAX, and all rebalancing occurs in this account. My brokerage is entirely VTI, as it is much more tax efficient than a mutual fund such as FSKAX (rarely has capital gains).
So I consider all of my accounts together when analyzing my AA, and make adjustments in my Traditional IRA as necessary.
Just saw JPow at my daily 7AM AA meeting
Hyuna bearish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw9CALKOvAI
Who you gonna trust?
I’m holding strong. Fed will raise rate .25 like they said and market will do it’s thing but nasdaq chart looks extremely bullish imo
I merely wanted to provide context to have the information complete.
I know that it isn't a terrible choice per se. I merely wanted to say that if you do go as far as tilt away from mcw index funds to factors (which majority of people shouldn't I think) then it's vital to do so via proper funds - aka AQR, Avantis, AA etc.
Otherwise always stick with total market index funds from vanguard and don't complicate your life.