Spy still 10% above pre covid peak
MSFT still 35% above PCP
NVDA 70% above PCP
META 35% BELOW PCP
TSLA 518% above PCP
NFLX 30% below PCP
AAPL 90% above PCP
Qqq 18% above PCP
Just a friendly reminder that $AAPL is only down 15% from the top. That’s scary if you’re a bull
>3 in 4 US teens own AirPods
that's a lot tbh. will they be lifelong AAPL users, AAPL calls? 🤔
What do you think of this portfolio:
MSFT - Microsoft
AAPL - Apple TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific DHR - Danaher IDXX - Idexx Laboratories V - Visa MA - Mastercard COST - Costco LVMUY - Louis Vuitton DDOG - Datadog SNOW - Snowflake NET - Cloudflare CFLT - Confluent TSLA - Tesla GLBE - Global-e DLO - Dlocal
VOO - Vanguard SP500 ETF VGT - Vanguard Technology ETF
Aapl hasn't rolled over yet because they haven't released bad results yet. When they do it'll roll over.
TSLA still up 880% from EOY 2019, and down only 21% in 2022, which is only 6% more than AAPL. MSFT dn 29%, GOOG dn 32%.
10/07 msft 242.5c, aapl 152.5c
10/24 Spy 402c
No, fuck you. I'll laugh when AAPL rips and I'm eating tendies with your ramen money.
How long can TSLA, AAPL and AMZN hold up the market?
Still 15% above June lows. AAPL really needs a miracle EA to justify their prices.
So if I DCA in $MSFT I’m actually DCA $AAPL? Makes sense
Hoping for AAPL to drop a few tomorrow. Wanna get rid of these puts and take a break for a week
Well I’m balls deep in aapl puts sooo wish me luck
AAPL has a lot further to fall. I'd just get SPY puts though.
AMD or aapl puts
What’s gonna print harder this week
See how long your gains will last. Even if AAPL can't buy back shares these couple of weeks due to blackout period, big whales like Warren Buffet is not going to let it drop too low.
AAPL being most shorted stock recently, the squeeze upward could spark some fireworks. imo
Aapl is a beloved stock. It’s the last stock people are going to sell in order to free up cash. Take a look at the daily drawdowns this week, the most sold each day we’re Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. Dow actually held up better than the rest because it has established companies that could withstand a recession and aren’t as sensitive to interest rate hikes like high PE growth stocks
Personally, I listen to the market.
When a new uptrend starts that is real there should be a lot of breadth indicators backing it up. You should also see quality stocks with good fundamentals making new highs.
The July rally was clearly a bear market rally because the breadth numbers did not back it up and the stocks going up were the crap thats been beaten down all year. You didnt see MSFT, Goog, AMD, AAPL making new highs. It was a meme stock rally and a bunch of unprofitable companies. That screamed short covering.
Don't get me wrong this can't call a bottom or anything. All of this happens after a bottom. There are always breadcrumbs.
Nice. Ballsy to post that for these AAPL deepthroaters
It appears safer to gamble because in a card room or casino, there are rules in place that are enforced, and cheating is a big no no—try cheating and you get kicked out at least, maybe banned even. If you buy AAPL stocks, it’s almost always considered investing because It is in my opinion not subject to manipulations, other stocks are easily rigged.
The big tech will be the last to fall. I expect within 2 or 3 quarters, AAPL will show decreased profit due to inflation eating away people's disposable income, which will be followed by AAPL crashing hard.
Spy will hit 300 and somehow TSLA will be 500 and aapl 200
There was a guy who started an AAPL only fund years ago and had lots of investors he charged. This guy was set for life easily if he just bought the stock. Instead he blew up the fund buying calls when they had one bad earnings.
AAPL is a tank, you might be fine
Well MSFT AAPL and GOOGL are considered defensive tech. Not anywhere near the crap companies of 2000.
MSFT basis 230 AAPL basis 102 GOOGL basis 113
I don't even see how AAPL benefitted from COVID. I have the same cell phone since 2018, since I didn't leave the house for 2 years.
I feel attacked , aapl weekly 152.5 calls
At this point cash is a very strong position. We're close to the final flush. You can either try and predict the last leg or two lower or create a pile of cash to buy the dip and go long once it materializes. Looking for vix to be beyond 40. The component that is missing is AAPL which is why shorts are growing on it
My company directed 401k has like 40 options and like 30 of those options have AAPL and MSFT as their primary holdings. The other options are just random small cap or dividend funds or gold. All of the options will tank when the market tanks. I pulled my money out into their "Cash" fund months ago. I don't plan to buy stocks again until 3 months after they start dropping the interest rate. The real crash always starts when they drop the rate.
I think there might be one or two bond options? I hear someone use the word "Bond" before. Are bonds bearish? Given the choice between bonds or cash in a 2 year melt down what do you pick?
Company directed 401k's hate when we make money
Not a lot though. Looking at OPs calculation it would've been 94,000 more than just keeping the 170,000 cash. If you would've invested in AAPL though... that'd be 6.8 million ;) And yes, I know, no one would've put a 100k in AAPL in '99, we can dream though.
I’ve got 95 puts on aapl with 145 strike expiring oct 7 and 14. Am I fucjed or hold til expiry?
If you’re looking to buy, don’t, we are on the verge of a bear market. Do not fight the fed, it might bounce but it will go back down, I can guarantee it. If you’re looking to short, short a main index, TSLA or AAPL.
Are you saying GOOGL and AAPL are going to 0?
I'm diversified! Who says we'll have a lost decade?!
GOOGL AAPL and MSFT won't be higher in 10 years?!
how low do we think aapl will go this week?
AAPL GOOGL will be higher in 5 years. All I care about. Nice try though
Yep. I'll buy GOOGL AAPL MSFT and UNH and be ahead in 5 years. Thanks!
Circuit breaker but AAPL still gonna be -0.69% . I hate that stonk
Fidelity has these things called fidfolios where you can invest say $100 into a basket where you set the percentages ahead of time and it puts say 10 in aapl 15 in PEP 5 in Tsla etc and you can have a bunch. I’ve got mine set up into 11 baskets, one for each sector and with companies that I like in that sector. For example my consumer discretionary basket is split between Crox, KDP, Celh, k, deck, and LVMH
It’s true, AAPL has done quite a bit to prop up the market. I don’t see it lasting. The valuation is quite stretched at 25x earnings. That compares to is more typical high teens multiple, which is reasonable for the type of moderate, steady growth AAPL delivers outside of the COVID boom. Multiple compression alone, back to 18, rather than today’s 25 would out AAPL around 110. Lower than that is quite possible if earnings really take a hit. To justify AAPL’s current price, you have to believe in continued double digit growth, something the company generally doesn’t sustain.
$ASO is a growing company paying dividends, so is $AAPL
Aapl is the largest stock by market cap, and I believe the most carried by individual funds. If not the most it's certainly up there.
Every time you DCA you are buying Aapl.
It is the most supported stock, and we won't bottom until it has rolled over and fallen
Aapl is the safest good stock in a sense. Unlimited money, moat on moat with no foreseeable competition due to network effects and brand loyalty. No game breaking innovations per se... They're not trying to go the meta route with all the risk that brings but they are consistently generating incremental improvements to just sell enough new iphones. Apple is sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of cash so they'll never go down. Will they crush indexes forever? Maybe not. But it's an island of safety... A mature company that is also relatively innovative with none of the traditional risks.
Cisco holders in 99' were in the same boat...It was today's "MSFT" or "AAPL"....People said IT infrastructure is never going away... It never went away, but the stock never recovered to its highs...
Same thing can be said of IBM and many others.
Seems like it'll recover whenever the Fed decides to pivot. For now, I'm keeping my eye on AAPL, waiting to see if it drops to its pre-covid high then plan from there.
UNH has outperformed since 1990.
I bought my shares 2 years ago and am currently up 52%.
GOOGL AAPL MSFT will perform well for years ... Not worried
Would it be a smart move to sell the AAPL and TSLA stocks that I'm still up in and then wait a few weeks for the fall while investing refocusing on a new sector during the Downturn?
I'm still pretty new to all of this.
AAPL $152.5 P 10/7 x6 NFLX $237.5 P 10/7 x2
Adbe LRCX ASML NVDA AAPL MSFT GOOGL all profitable. Choose wisely!
GOOGL MSFT NEE AAPL UNH COST UNP ?...... LOL ok
Dude legit put stocks like AAPL and GOOGL in the same post as BBBY, wtf
Gonna short AAPL cause I found apple tv to be a bad experience
Yep. Just buy crap like MSFT AAPL and GOOGL at low prices and in a few years you'll have more money guaranteed!
I also own stuff like HD UNH COST and UNP NEE...
Really hope so. AAPL puts need to print big. If anything, you would expect it to serve as a source of funds for large investors to buy the dip in other parts of the market.
Things like GOOGL MSFT AAPL will be much higher in 5 and 10 years.... So yes, they are "cheap".
3700 is still the technical support level until we have two closed below, Friday was the first. After that there no significant support until 3300, which almost perfectly coincides with 15-16 PE. Im not sure I agree with the top 5 analysis though. AMZN and TSLA are the only two really throwing that number off. TSLA specifically is an undeserving anomaly for their PE. I think AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG fairly deserve their current PE and in many ways are seen as safe havens due to current cash flow and cash hoards.
How soon is soon to sell puts? I'm sitting on 10/21 AAPL and 9/30 SPY puts.
They cost the exact same as an AAPL share too!
That's good enough for my msft & aapl calls
$aapl and $nvda are my favorite wheel stocks
That's why I'm 50/50 cash/equity.
I can't time the bottom and there will be market rallies here and there. If my portfolio shoots up to some wacky level I'll take some more profits.
If we fall down to 3000 or less I'll buy some more GOOGL MSFT AAPL and stuff.
Good luck everyone.
You.cant time the market.
Just hold and keep 50% cash.
I'm waiting for 3400, 3200, 3000 and maybe less.
I'll be buying GOOGL AAPL MSFT UNH and holding for years to.come.
If the next 10.years are flat.... Good.... I'll be buying on sale!
John Bogle said. "The young investor should be praying for a huge market crash "...
Yes, I did well last week on AAPL covered calls…. too bad the underlying also deflated.
I don't like it. Too semicinductor heavy and the wrong companies in my opinion. I would get fully rid of INTC and MU and replace with TXN and AMD or increase QCOM allocation. I hate META- uncertain future, metaverse bet is a gamble, too dependent on ads in a privacy trend, founder a sociapathic lizard, the next myspace. Google also a bit too dependent on ads. I would move from both into MSFT and AAPL. keep some google tho
Was averaging down until I saw AAPL was clearly trying to close above $150. Figured I’d take chance up to close anyways.
AAPL and TSLA correct...then we can start talking about a bottom, until then it's all chop down.
That Roth may be a better deal because you can manage the money yourself tax free . You could buy ETFs ,Index Funds , AAPL ,TSLA , AMD, MO, SUN, or whatever. I have 2 Rollover Roth accounts in my situation with Fidelity.
AAPL has a 2.4 Trillion market cap...
It's P/E is 24...
2.4T is a full one-tenth of the US GDP...
I rest my case
•The VVIX is still around 100 and just beginning it's climb.
•VIX is elevated around 30 but with VVIX increasing it's likely VIX hasn't peaked
•All of VIX futures are in backwardation. Tells me MM's are doing a shit job of risk mitigation.
•DXY continues to go parabolic
•AAPL isn't following the rest of the market and there's a probability it snaps back to reality
Market divergences are just beginning. Not ending. People like you are still permabulls. The hopium of a recovery soon is still real. Makes me think assets and equities aren't done falling
This is also a sub that only mentions large cap. Nvda aapl are not going bankrupt.
Isn't TSLA 30% down and AAPL around 17% this year ?
So when the price of lumber goes up to 4x, you can choose not to buy lumber. And if you absolutely need the lumber, you will probably have to pay the 4x rate, and pass that expense along to your own clients and customers.
And when the price of eggs goes up to $4 a dozen, well you don't have to buy the eggs. But if you need the eggs, you will have to pay all four dollars to get them.
And if the price of housing goes up to insane and unaffordable rates, well, you don't have to buy a house. You'll have to keep renting that apartment and writing your landlord checks every month.
And when the price of your apartment goes up by 30 percent for no real reason, well, what can you do. Maybe move in with your grandparents, or with some friends you met back in college.
And when the price of AAPL stock falls from 180 to 150, well maybe it wasn't really worth 180 in the first place. Maybe when that August 2020 4-1 stock split happened and the price leapt from 85 to 110 overnight, it became a game for speculators (like Bitcoin) instead of a true value. A share of stock isn't worth anything, not really.
So now we're stuck with 9 percent inflation and stocks going down by 25 percent, and bonds paying 3 or 4 percent. This is the worst of times.
STO = Sell to Open (the trade)
In this case, we're talking about shorting a put. To short means to sell something. We're selling a put option contract to our opponent, called the counter-party.
SPY is the name of an ETF comprised of shares of stock in the S&P 500 companies. We could use SPY, AAPL, GOOG, or any other "underlying" that has options.
DTE = days to expiration. Every option expires. DTE = 12, for example, is a way of saying that there are only 12 days until a particular option expires.
TSLA is like Aapl- they have a cult like following. many people will want Tesla’s no matter what. They are also leading innovation in many areas- not just EV.
Yeah, there’s no way. AAPL is down less than 20% from ATH. Some of these large caps are only a year away from ATH once the fed begins signaling a change.
We went from SPY360 to SPY430 in the matter of months on a copium rally.
Conservatively 2025 or 2026.
AAPL a special case. That consumer services revenue outpaces Free Cash Flow now, doesn’t it? Hmm…..
How can I trim/reorganise this? Was buying some dips and ended up with a bit of everything and a falling knife as my top holding! (Some of the weightage come from bit of VOO/VTI)
INTC 16.69 GOOG 13.49 META 10.48 MSFT 6.86 MU 6.76 SONY 5.98 AAPL 4.62 TM 3.69 MMM 2.37 AMZN 1.79 VZ 1.73 UBER 1.69 QCOM 1.67 HMC 1.58 AMD 1.40 ASML 1.17 T 1.11 JPM 0.81 C 0.62 NOK 0.57 UMC 0.48
I sold aapl, amd, msft, pltr and a few trash meme stocks.
Hit the peak perfectly, which is so unlikely for me.
The answer to a 15 year time line is - of course you will always be up. Where I don’t buy some of the conventional wisdom is blindly buy because it will certainly be up then. Let’s just say for example purposes only- Aapl is at $500 in 15 years. If you have 100k to invest you do OK if you buy Aapl at $150. But you do substantially better if you wait until the bottoms and buy it at $90.
What did I buy high?
I bought UNH at 356 and am up 50%.
MSFT my basis is 230
AAPL basis is 102
GOOGL basis 113
How is NFLX $226 but AAPL is $150? I thought Apple is a bigger company
$15 makes me a little nervous.
I think a lot of NASDAQ stocks have or are bottoming at this point, but I worry there is still some more damage left at the index level because of how some of the largest NASDAQ stocks like AAPL and TSLA have held up surprisingly well so far.
We also haven't seen a real capitulatory VIX spike moment. We really need a day where the S&P500 drops like 4-5% in a day after falling for the entire week before hand, followed by the VIX spiking significantly above 40.
As it stands I think $15 is fairly likely from here. I'd probably go with $13 and $9 as my entries but that's just my thoughts. Either way so long as you hold for more than a couple of years it seems highly likely you'll at least get your money back at this point.
I'm averaging down in GOOGL AAPL MSFT.
GOOGL COST basis is 113.
UNH I'm up 50% basis is 357
Yes I agree.
I always ask myself if I could hold if I lost 50%.
My best trade so far was UNH. It's 14% of my portfolio and I got in at 357. I'm up about 50% so far.
MSFT basis 230
GOOGL basis 113
AAPL basis 102
Thanks! GOOGL and UNH I don't worry about really. Also MSFT AAPL.
Yeah right! p/e, peg, p/tbv, roic, dcf analysis, etc. are hugely inconsistent across sectors and individual stocks. All sorts of other metrics are used by analysts to "justify" why certain stocks are high when others aren't, but those metrics are inconsistently applied, too.
There's no good reason why UNH or COST are trading at such high historical valuations, or why MA ever traded at a p/e of 50 despite lackluster growth. AAPL doubled its valuation over a few years for the only reason that analysts began valuating them as a "tech" company and not "hardware", as if "tech" has the been ordained to carry unreasonable growth prospects. The same thing happened with electric car companies. What about C getting such low p/tbv valuations versus USB which has to have the worst products and customer service of any major bank, but has "high margins"? And what about (often small cap companies) that pay dividends as shares, and yet their dilution seems to go unnoticed and so the stock price keeps climbing to absurd valuations? It's all nonsense.
Add to that the increasing power of government policies to make or destroy a company or sector, the power of the Fed to manipulate money and thereby entire industries, and the power of socio-politico- religious movements to deify or demonize a company with propaganda campaigns, and everything becomes unpredictable and unfair.
Anyone who thinks the stock market is about fair values is naive and hasn't traded very long. Stocks trade based on money supply flux, market sentiment, and fad/cult trends. It's stupid, but that's the reality.
Personally, I would keep unh, aapl, msft, cost, nee, unp and probably sell or reduce the rest. Best of breed is all I would hold at this time.