They are blue chips names FOR TECH, not blue chips in the traditional sense. Even if MAFT and AAPL are by now recognised as blue chips by almost everyone. In any case they are large, hyper profitable companies with significant moats in their respective spaces. That’s why I like them at their current valuations. I am still avoiding tech names like ZOOM, ZS or even ADBE (great company but still richly valued on my view).

As for the ad you mention, I am not based in the USA and I have not been exposed to it so I don’t know what you are talking about. As a rule of thumb however, I tend to choose my portfolio not based on ads. I like QQQJ because of its broad exposure to disruptive businesses, the only way I feel confident in investing in mid caps in tech, as it is extremely difficult to pick winners. My position in QQQJ is anyway 1/5th that of QQQ and roughly the same as my AMZN position.

I bought at $277 right after Figma acquisition news and ADBE got hammered. I’m riding this motha back to $699. Roll big dog👊💪

This fucking guy. Just rubbing his turkey neck all over every single technical trade that's been making me money for the past few weeks. I'm probably fucked.

Hoping ADBE has legs though.

looking to buy ADSK, ADBE, AAPL , ABNB & ASML in the next 3 months

My fellow Regard, I hope you are just trying to get a rise from all the Apes on WSB. To follow through on your plan will assure financial ruin for you and your portfolio. Crypto is MAYBE a bet 10 years from now but between now and then the bloodletting is going to be epic. Buy and hold AAPL on any dips along with ADBE AWK EMN and then sit back and watch your asset base get fat. Investing in Crypto is like putting the top down on my Carrera and throwing my money onto Pacific Coast Highway😳 I genuinely hope you are smarter than that🙈

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• BABA 12/16 75P for $3.35 or less
• MRK 12/16 105P for $2.15 or less
• MET 12/16 75P for $1.25 or less
• UNG 12/16 21P for $1.95 or less
• RIO 12/16 62.5P for $1.60 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• EFA 12/16 64P for $1.20 or less
• QCOM 12/16 120P for $4.60 or less
• NEM 12/16 45P for $1.85 or less
• ADBE 12/16 322.5C for $14.70 or less
• FDX 12/16 170P for $4.30 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)

I’m 22 looking to supplement both growth and income.

This is my m1 portfolio at the moment:

ETFs:

6% VTI 2% VXUS 2% BND 6% UPRO 4% TMF 2% SCHD 2% DVY 2% FDVV 2% DGRW 2% VIGI 2% JEPI 2% QYLD 2% DIVO 2% NUSI 2% BXMX 2% SVOL 2% BAR 2% XLRE 2% FV

Stocks: 1% AMD 1% NKE 1% NVDA 1% META 1% CMCSA 1% MA 1% HD 1% BRK.B 1% JPM 1% MSFT 1% PFE 1% COST 1% V 1% ADBE 1% XOM 1% GOOGL 1% AAPL 1% BAC 1% SCHW 1% PEP 1% UNH 1% NFLX 1% DIS 1% AMZN 1% TSLA 1% VFC 1% AFL 1% WBA 1% FRT 1% IBM 1% BEN 1% ATO 1% NEE 1% ED 1% ADP 1% KMB 1% PG 1% LOW 1% WMT 1% O 1% MMM 1% CLX 1% MCD 1% KO 1% AMCR 1% MDT 1% JNJ 1% CVX 1% ABBV 1% PEP

Yes, this is convoluted, but it has outperformed the S&P 500 and the three-fund portfolio.

S&P500

GOOG

TSMC

AAPL

ADBE

RBLX

TSLA

GOLD

Anyone playing adbe?

I think ADSK and ADBE are much better companies

😂😂😂Zero puts…long AAPL and ADBE👊💪

Main holdings ; SHOP, ADBE, AMD , SPY

MSFT and ADBE.

Portfolio:

MSCI World USD (Dist) Core MSCI World USD (Acc) MSCI EM USD (Acc) CVX - Chevron GM - General Motors AMZN - Amazon 1211.HK - BYD Company Limited Global Water USD (Dist) BAC - Bank of America UNP - Union Pacific Corporation LOW - Lowe's Companies SHEL.L - Shell plc KO - The Coca Cola Company AAPL - Apple Inc. PLUG - Plug Power BIDU - Baidu (ADR), Inc. MSFT - Microsoft Corporation INTC - Intel Corporation XSDG.F - Samsung SDI (GDR) Co., Ltd. GOOGL - Alphabet (A) Inc. Sprott Physical Silver BLX.TO - Boralex Inc. NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. PYPL - PayPal Holdings, Inc. BABA - Alibaba (ADR) Group Holding Limited 0968.HK - Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited GUI.PA - Guillemot Corporation S.A.

Buy: PFE, V, VBK.DE, SEDG, RTX, 5AP.F, NOC, NEE, MCD, MAS, JPM, ENPH, DE, CMG, BLK, ADSK, AXP, ADBE, ABBV

Uan aapl Adbe Nvda Crm Googl fsr Lcid Tsla, land, Amzn, pypl

The smoke is good too

I would agree here. Buy at least 100 shares of SPY or Leaps and sell CC. This will cushion downside and earn premium on top of whatever larger market does.

If you want to stay in individual stocks TGT, WMT or Cost seems like a good add to Retail. Also Amd, Adbe, Goog or NVDA for Tech

Thanks for the reply! Hoping TWLO and TEAM can be the next generation of mature tech companies like ADBE and CRM. Also banking on FOUR, NET, and DOCN. Sometime soon the tide will turn back for tech.

ADBE does a lot of stuff beyond designer tools. Think it’s a value play at this price point. It’s about 6% of my portfolio. The other 94% being HOOD FD puts of course.

Why is 20% growth and 20x multiple “reasonable”?

On the growth side, NET has compounded at ~50% for 15 straight quarters, their DBNER is 125%, and getting to the likely conservative $5B target is 32% CAGR.

On the multiple side, make a plot of EV/FCF vs NTM rev growth at current multiples (a rising rate environment with recession fears) and see what 30% growth gets you. Here’s a few examples:

• MSFT: 25x (11% growth)
• ADBE: 20x (12% growth)
• NOW: 38x (23% growth)
• CRM: 26x (12% growth)
• INTU: 30x (18% growth)
• PAYC: 87x (24% growth)
• DDOG: 62x (39% growth)

When is it gonna fcf though? MSFT, ADBE, etc all have positive and growing fcf.

On an EV/NTM Sales basis, NET is at 10.5x at todays prices. Here’s a couple of large software multiples:

• MSFT: 7.3x
• ADBE: 6.8x
• NOW: 8.2x

Some others:

• MA: 12.8x
• V: 12x
• NVDA: 13x
• AAPL: 5x

All of the above are great companies, but will likely compound growth between 5-20% the next few years, whereas NET will probably be in the 35-45% range.

NET has been overvalued for awhile but you’ve gotta look at forward growth estimates when evaluating these companies.

2022 Returns $TWTR: +25% $AAPL: -15% $GME: -23% $MSFT: -31% $TSLA: -35% $CRM: -36% $GOOG: -36% $MRNA: -40% $AMZN: -41% $ADBE: -44% $TEAM: -48% $SNOW: -52% $NFLX: -52% $NVDA: -53% $ZM: -54% $PYPL: -56% $ETSY: -58% $AMD: -58% $SQ: -63% $SPOT: -65% $META: -72% $SHOP: -74% $SNAP:-79%

TQQQ is probably not worth it right now. There's a CPI reading next week. It will underperform the market if we see a red turn in the near future. Would you buy APPL, META, NVDA, GOOG, TXN, TSLA, MSFT, COST, PEP, ADBE, AMZN right now? You want to buy those companies with leverage right now? Is it worth it to hold those companies with 3x leverage if the next inflation reading comes in hot? The bull case is that PEP goes up to a 30 P/E and COST goes back to 40? That APPL trades back to 30x earnings? These are all great companies, but are they good investments right now?

Cant wait to buy GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, ADBE and NVDA in 2024

Advertising is somewhat cyclical so it’s not impossible GOOGL goes further down with that cycle.

That being said GOOGL is more than just selling advertising. It also owns Android, Google Store, Cloud services, Google Drive, etc… which aren’t depending on advertising. Plus companies will cut Facebook ads before they cut Google keywords ads.

I never had share of any of the tech megacap because I found them too pricy before but I have now bought into GOOGL, MSFT, ADBE, ASML and AMZN.

GOOGL and MSFT being my favorite buys.

N.B. I’m not saying it won’t go down further.

This is a very different environment than two years ago. Companies spending a ton of money on things that do not pay off tomorrow (see: META) or overpaying for a purchase (ADBE) are punished. Two years ago, would have been a different story.

Why would ADBE want DOCU though? The customer base? Adbe e-sign seems on par from my understanding

Now and the past 1 year were one of the best times to buy stocks in a while. You get about 6 to 8n of these periods in a lifetime and you should take advantage of them. If you are under 50 just buy good companies and don't worry about it -- if you don';t need the money for 6 to 8 years. Dollar cost average as another person posted. Money you need quickly -- the bank. Money you don't need for 1 to 5 years and you don't want top lose it -- I-Bonds. I have been buying as much as I can of NKE, MSFT, ADBE, CRM, most of the Chip stocks, and a lot of others. One of the few times there are a lot more buys out there than I have available cash.

Why are CRM and NOW not up in the section with ORCL, ADBE and MSFT?

I have call spreads. Spread width is $5-$10. Some positions are over 15-20$ in the money. Examples, COST, ADBE, MRNA. Some are just barely ITM. I will close out at any pop in price before the FOMC. I have limit orders in place waiting to be filled.

Always puts on $ADBE. As a daily user of their software for over twenty years they’re an absolutely abysmal company to do business with.

Worst sales and customer service I’ve ever experienced in my life. It took me 7 months and 9 different sales people to get my corporate account switched to an invoicing billing model.

During that time they got the quote for the software we use wrong easily 10-15 times, trying to charge us thousands to tens of thousands over what it should have cost. I had new sales person on average every 3 weeks because they would completely stop responding to my inquires after a few days of trying to solidify the invoice and sales contract.

Puts on $ADBE

ASML, ADBE, SMG, EXPE, SOFI, SQ

>OGL、MSFT、AMZN
>
>我要买到跌到跌幅 |天天要闻
>
>ADBE、AMD、C
>
>最近作为价值投资购买（它们与我知道的我的 ETF 重叠，但我觉得它们是未来几年的可靠选择）|
>
>NIO
>
> (@$14.5)、
>
>ATVI
>
> (@$75) 和
>
>WIZZ
>
> (@£16.0) 是我的高风险/回报赌注。X、C

Your losses are already few.

I try to do a mix of valuation and TA. Basically, I pick stock that is good business and undervalued based on discounted free cash flow or PEG ratio. I use TA based on stochastic (10 days and 20 days) and chart pattern for entry point. Currently I am looking at stocks like PANW, PYPL, ADBE and some small caps like DOCS and APP which I think are all undervalued. But they are clearly in downward trend, so I still sit on sideline and holding some SQQQ.

$ADBE

Nflx subs beat. Adbe reaffirmed. Market moon.

It's just META imo. ADBE's acquisition was far more anti-competitive but who cares? The boomer regulators don't use Photoshop and the media doesn't feel the need to write endless hit pieces on ADBE.

I've said it before but I think the META's rebrand and the emphasis from Zuck on how TikTok is eating their lunch is an attempt to take some of the regulatory heat off of them. Doubt it will work, but M&A has always been one of META's strengths and those days are probably behind them.

👌 Bears trying to make it sound like we aren't down always have to use indices since they hide a lot of the pain indives have felt. Also even revered quality names like amd or adbe are just hammered of their euphoric highs

I too own ADBE.

> Considering you have 11 downvotes in three hours, I don't think you know what you're talking about

I wasn't trying to be rude btw. It's just that I really don't think you understand what you're talking about here. But that said I know that most people here only look at metrics like TTM PE so it's kind of my fault for not being clearer. I should have explained in more detail originally, but I was in a rush. Please let me explain now:

Looking at the PE of a company which is barely cashflow positive makes next to no sense. PE depends on margins, and SHOP isn't that focused on margins at this point in time. What I'm trying to say is that their current operating margins are not representative of their potential margins. It's the same reason you shouldn't have bet against AMZN because of PE historically. They rather just turn a small profit and invest the rest in growth and other opportunities. Now, if you don't want to own an unprofitable growth company then that's fine, but at least value it based on metrics that make sense.

But there's more, because even if current operating margins were a good reflection of the company's potential SHOP has $6b in cash on a $33b market cap, so really you should be looking at something like EV/EBITDA anyway because PE would be skewed by their very large cash position.

But the main reason I said that you don't know what you're talking about is because I'm 99.9% sure you don't know where the majority of their recent earnings and loses are actually coming from. Because if you did you would know the vast majority has been related to gains and loses from investments. For example, at the start of the year SHOP was trading with a 22 PE for similar reasons - so presumably you must have thought it was a great buy back then? I mean a 22 PE on a company growing 30-40% YoY, what a bargain, right? This is why PE is a very bad metric for valuing SHOP. It's completely skewed right now.

But now I've explained why PE is the wrong metric to use I'll try to provide some framework to value SHOP. I cba to do a full DCF analysis, but in very simple terms the stock is current trading at 5.5x EV/Sales with a gross profit margin of 50%+. With gross margins in excess of 50% it's reasonable to assume they'll be able to achieve operating margins somewhere around 10 - 20% at scale. That would mean it's trading with a hypothetical PE somewhere around 40 today.

But you can't just look at some hypothetical PE because you also need to consider growth and risks. The more room a company has to grow and the faster it's growing the higher the multiple needs to be. That should then be discounted by the risks.

On the growth side SHOP's got plenty of room to grow given ecommerce is still a growing industry (growing around 10-15% YoY). On top of this they're even beginning to expand into brick and mortar retail while continuing to expand into new business opportunities like payments and fulfilment.

I'd argue they also have a favourable position compared to a lot of growth tech companies right now because they're free cash flow positive and not burning much cash (if any) while they have a lot of cash to get them through this economic downturn and perhaps even to make some strategic acquisitions if the opportunity presents itself.

But the biggest floor on the stock is the fact that they're trading at a $26b valuation. You need to remember that ADBE just brought Figma for $20b at a 50x sales. SHOP at 5.5x sales with all of their products, their brand and their user base would be considered "stupidly cheap" in any normal market environment. I'm not saying they're going to be acquired, but my point is if Tobi decided he wanted to retire tomorrow and started looking for a buyer, he would almost certainly get $26b for SHOP. So to those who noted my comment on consumer slow down, it's fair to say that I wouldn't be surprised if there was more bad news to come for SHOP and for the stock to fall further - I do think there might be better buy opportunities. My call is long-term and if you're thinking long-term I see no reason to worry at this valuation.

I have my eye on ADBE for software - if the market continues to slide they could be picked up as a bargain. their products are used in all industries - so on the recovery they will in turn recover strong. They are currently priced at the same price they were at during the march 2020 covid crash, so if they get any lower its a bargain. I wish they had a dividend though for this kind of share price....

Yeah, NOW and ADBE getting interesting.

It's interesting how Adobe crashed to $274.73 on September 27th, but hasn't gotten close to that low since then, with one exception. The "flash crash" on Thursday morning. On Thursday morning, it briefly got to $276.60, only $1.88 from a new 52-week low.

What this says to me is that ADBE has pretty much bottomed at this $274 price, and the market is going to need to be hammered in an even harder way to get in below that. Either another flash crash like Thursday morning, or a continued string of consecutive red days without any relief.

I almost bought some ADBE during that flash crash, but was really busy with some other stuff. I thought that I'd have time to buy it in that range later in that same day, of course, that was not to be.

I started buying big cap tech stocks hedgefonds did buy way higher during the last dip in june….

CRM WDAY ADBE NOW

• mid cap VEEV and SPLNK

On top i added TWLO since volume increased a lot the last couple of weeks.

ADBE of course, I've been following and have had in portfolio, but I see it's subscription business of Photoshop maybe is mature (like Microsoft and it's 365)... I don't know

TWLO to follow up, thanks, but I see it's cloud computing. Imo there is a jamm in cloud (FTNT GLOB HUBS NICE XM NOW WDAY SHOP UPLD SPSC TEAM TTD), but see TWLO sales x4 in 4 years... wow.

She bought ADBE and I own ADBE. I've been making good money selling weeklies in it despite being down 5%. Probably going to sell it and move on to something else

Photoshop is excellent Bullish $adbe ?

Stock performance is not an indicator of earnings.

Non-cyclical businesses with strong market presence are profiting just fine. There are tons of businesses that are going to post strong earnings, but below expectations, and masses will get lost in how yoy is negative.

The most beaten up sector like Semiconductors, TXN is still going to perform relatively well because of their analog moat. Sales will go down, yoy will go down, but they are one the least cyclical companies in the sector.

ORLY, AZO, ULTA, ADBE, MCO, COST, and list go on from tech to banks to healthcare. Focus on what does the company do, and how do they earn their money.

Would be nice to hear feedback from you, just in case I overlooked something.

I am comfortable with my portfolio (ROI -5.67%), I started investing in Feb '21. Sold most positions in Oct '21, and bought back in June '22. Since last year, every month I deposit % of my salary and wait for buying opportunity. I am under 30 and UK-based.

Portfolio:

40% ETFs: S&P500(VUAA), All World (VWRA), Semis (SMH), S&P500 Financials (IUFS), UK div (IUKD).

30% Cash

30% Single stocks: GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN I'm going to buy them until they reach the decline phase | ADBE, AMD, C bought recently as a value play (They overlap with my ETFs I know, but I felt they are solid picks for the next few years) | NIO (@$14.5), ATVI (@$75) and WIZZ (@£16.0) are my high risk/reward bets. X, CLF, BP, UUUU, V, DIS, and INPST are on my watchlist to be better diversified, but I am reluctant to add more granularity (already 13 tickers)...

It’s too bearish on AMD.

AMD and ADBE have become my first two long hold “calling bottom” positions coming out of a year of day trading, puts, and cash gang.

After such news it sink only 10%. This is a dip for newbies

I remember when Upstart missed earnings few months ago it fall 25% in a day.

Adbe fell 17% in a day when they announced they will buy Figma.

And here a company recall all the products ever made and price fells just 10%?

And on a day with news headlines about a recession coming in 6-9 months which means that people will stop buying new cars?

Don't know who backed this stock to support it on a day line this, but must have huge faith at Rivian to keep pumping money, buying the dip

>Adobe Forecasts $209.7 Billion Holiday Season Online (U.S.); Cyber Monday to Top $11 Billion $ADBE

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-10-10 ^08:00:29 ^EDT-0400

I agree with you on all of them. Indexes are mostly where my money comes from when it comes to puts. CMG and ADBE will probably make you the most in puts in the long term.

ADBE

So let see if I understood.

QCOM has 103% ROE, 12B in net income and 140B market cap. ADBE has 30% ROE, 4B in net income and 140B market cap.

What the marker is saying is that Qualcomm is a riskier company than Adobe, therefore one should expect higher returns on Qualcomm than Adobe.

I think I understood.

In this particular example, both of them are growth stocks with P/B at ~9x.

Is it a way to split stocks apart in the growth/value basket?

i'm going with ADBE, ASAN, and SQ for the long term

I have been nibbling some ADBE, always loved them but never bought in the good times due to valuation concerns.

Calls on $ADBE !

Buying 11/18 270P on ADBE with the last bit I got.

I’m tired, boss.

ADBE falling knife catch has been going okay so far +5% already, ready to get rekt soon though :D

ADBE and CRM already green otd, wild stuff

Totally agree on GOOG. Not as much on ADBE.

I would look at it as an opportunity.

I put new money in GOOG, ADBE, BA, PANW, ABBV last Thursday (I was a day early) and held positions in CZR, TLRY and MSOS. My thinking was that these stocks that I always wanted to own were on sale. I plan to hold for a long time.

Not sure how ADBE is a great deal. I'd argue fair value is $220. I think Google is close to fair value at the moment. Having said that I think there are much better deals in the market and buying at these levels make a lot of sense.

Their CFO just bought nearly $1m in ADBE a couple weeks ago.

But yes, the insiders have been selling tech for some time now, and at the multiples we had, it makes absolute sense.

Annoyed I didnt nibble some NET or SHOP with Friday's deposit, played it safer with ADBE only

> Especially $GOOGL and $ADBE

A yes buying advertisment company into a recession and a company which destroyed more than 30b shareholder value the last few years is a great deal... Google is not expensive, but they are probably at peak earnings.

Idk about ADBE

I’m about to go in on ADBE and already have plenty of GOOGL (but might get more if I have the cash)

I started 2 weeks ago with $100,000 cash. Here’s what I’m in so far.

Google @ 8% Meta @ 8% BNS.TO @ 8% EQB.TO @ 7% GSY.TO @ 5% DIR-UN.TO @ 5% SRU-UN.TO @ 5% ADBE @ 4% MAGT.TO @ 4% Sitting on cash @ 47%

Currently 53% in the market now. Looking at Apple as a potential buy next to make 10 total stocks. If apple goes to 120/130 levels I’ll start dipping my toes in. Also looking at semi conductor space but torn between AMD, MU & QCOM. So many good deals right now.

ABBV, ADBE, BA, GOOG, PANW, CZR, TLRY, MSOS.

I’m buying shares that I always wanted to own but thought they were too expensive: ADBE, GOOG, PANW. Guess what, lower prices!

It depends… some stocks the most succesfull hedge fonds bought. Tbh i do not know most of them. But if they added lets say 5% in last quarter i could risk 0.5% of my portofilio too. Especially if quantscore is good.

BC OC CCK WSCC SABR REZI BKNG LNG

and then those stocks all hedge fonds bought most and are even deeper now:

V JPM BAC CRM META BABA PANW GOOGL ADBE WBD MSFT CMCSA (look how deep it has fallen since. It is a nobrainer at these levels)

I honestly feel very good with those stocks. Even better than with spy ETF which i traded in for those individual stocks that are beaten down way more than SPY. If JPM or Comcast would dive to covid low. So be it. We already there lol……

Moving further into Small Cap growth

TOST, CHWY, SNOW, GTLB, DDOG, OKTA, LMND, NU, SHOP, TEAM, BILL

Please note; most of these purchased occurred after down 40,60,80%

https://www.meritechcapital.com/blog/durable-growth-saas-returns

https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1574889425183514624?s=46&t=SjoXzx1GSaIgrHa91MDTPQ

Some of the reason for why growth now

Large Cap Growth

NOW, CRM, MSFT, ADBE, CNSWF, AMZN, ROP, TSLA

Other

HIFS (best bank in the country) WBD, BX

I keep buying.

I’m down $500k (roughly) from ATH’s but what do I have to worry about when I’m in quality such as:

SPY, GOOG, V, LYB, C, ADBE?

To me, the game is simple, get ready to buy big when we get instances like this. That’s exactly what I’ve been doing!

Moving further into Small Cap growth

TOST, CHWY, SNOW, GTLB, DDOG, OKTA, LMND, NU, SHOP, TEAM, BILL

Please note; most of these purchased occurred after down 40,60,80%

https://www.meritechcapital.com/blog/durable-growth-saas-returns

https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1574889425183514624?s=46&t=SjoXzx1GSaIgrHa91MDTPQ

Some of the reason for why growth now

Large Cap Growth

NOW, CRM, MSFT, ADBE, CNSWF, AMZN, ROP, TSLA

Other

HIFS (best bank in the country) WBD, BX

[email protected] average. Adding more at the same time with MSFT ADBE. Only 2 US shares I am buying. Eyeing BX ASML but haven’t pulled the trigger.

High quality businesses such as $ADBE $GOOGL $MA $META $MSFT $NKE $PYPL $V are now trading between 1-1.25X NTM PEG ratio!

These stocks might decline some more over the near-term, but IMHO that will be a gift for long-term investors.

*This isn't a recommendation, do own DD.

You don't "sell" the stock when you're DCA'ing.

I sold AMD today. I don't currently have a position with that capital. I could consider jumping back into AMD tomorrow, or maybe it will be META, ADBE or MSFT.

I have been buying some stocks finally and getting rid of options in my ira portfolio. CTRA, OXY, BKNG, ADBE. Still down since I bought but I can sleep at night with these in folio or so i think. Thinking of doubling down on NVDA below 100.

i will try to convince you 1 of 2 ways, choose whichever works best for you

1 ) ADBE is a buy at $154. I agree, it is a tricky and tempting stock. don’t do it.

2 ) if you buy ADBE I will virtually slap you via emojis on Reddit.

Someone talk me out of using my paycheck on adbe, fwd pe of 20 and already under covid lows. Figma deal is trash but feels like they got hammered for it already recently...

I have screenshots of my portfolio during 2021, I had stuff like UPST with avg price 385, SE @335, ADBE @690 etc. It's so funny to see this now, and back then I was confident that I am a wise stock picker LOL. My portfolio had wild swings due to margin overuse (abuse), it went from 260k in Aug 2021 to 59k in March 2022 ( was 100% in Chinese stocks ), but luckily managed to recover fully and more - up to 310k now thanks to UAN run up in April earlier this year. Now sitting on 100% cash and waiting for Nasdaq to get below 8500. Let's see.

What I did personally was sell everything (except AAPL) earlier in the year at higher prices, and then begin repurchasing over the last weeks as we approached the 52-week lows. I didn't re-purchase every position though. I abandoned some companies lacking the fundamentals to withstand the inflation / recession / stagflation and put those back into other positions I thought were stronger for the new environment. I added more energy, utilities, staples, and commodities than I previously held, trimmed down the tech stocks to those with the widest moats, and added some income producing ETFs.

I'm using the SPDR sector ETFs to create my own allocation in indexes, and holding ETFs in green energy, EV and battery tech, and water, but my biggest single stock positions are still in tech (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, ADBE, META, et al.) although I re-bought them all after their declines (to date). Other big positions by percent of portfolio are: FDX, CE, ALB, JPM, ALLY, MCK, GM, DIS, CARR, KR, KO, ACI. Also re-purchased recently after declines.

As the market continues the decline (crash, really), I do worry that I might not have restructured my portfolio enough. But I know that I managed to protect myself from 50%+ losses on many positions and reduced those losses (so far) to 3-5% instead.

If we get another bear market rally I may make further changes by exiting some positions and increasing my cash holdings again, since the bottom is starting to look even further away than I thought it was all year. I'm still betting long-term on certain tech: semiconductors, green energy, electric and autonomous vehicles, and water-related resources.

It's interesting to go through this transition because I built my whole portfolio starting in the early 2000s with small investments in tech companies like AAPL and CSCO. And it's disorienting to try and find footing now, knowing that everything I learned over those years no longer applies.

NKE & ADBE

No fortune but +560% on my 65p. This and adbe were crazy juicy put plays

Picking up more adbe puts today

Adobe (ADBE) crashed after $20B Figma acquisition.

I think it’s an overreaction and I’m buying.

you are not fucked, i am brand new new first day yesterday ha 30k in already, shop and sq like you, might sell shop within a week

also bought baba, ADBE ROKU TSM, all medium to high risk big potential me thinks

ARKK VOO VGK for EFTs

Some DIS

i got 100k for google or amazon if they get shit on some more,

Most stocks, especially the large cap / "defensive" names - AAPL, GOOG, TSLA, etc.

Thing is though it's possible those stocks could remain relatively overvalued unless things get bad enough to force investors to reconsider their conviction for them. I'd argue we're seeing this with NVDA now, it was a darling earlier this year. Most investors believed it would eventually recover and would be a long-term winner, but news has now got so bad it's very hard not to question it and we're seeing this in recent price action. You could be down much more and be underwater for years if you don't sell today. The same doubts could be raised of stocks like AAPL if investors start to believe demand will be lower than expected for a couple of years and margins also take a hit. Again, were that to happen you could be underwater for years given the valuation.

Even outside of the mega cap and defensive names very few stocks are "cheap" in my opinion. I'd argue some software names which have taken a large hit like CRM or ADBE are fairly cheap at this point, but with FX and growth risks, who knows. A lot of growth stocks are very cheap, but then it's hard to own these if you believe there's a decent recession coming because you risk some of these names going to zero.

It's a difficult market. I think you could argue most stocks could be cut in half were there a recession.

Are industrials in much weaker positions than (very profitable, large cap) tech companies in a rising rate environment?

I understand why speculative tech will get heavily revised down, but intuitively, I can't see why MSFT/GOOG/AAPL/CRM/ADBE/META ... type companies are worse off than heavy industrials like CAT, CMI, DE, X, CLF, etc. They generate so much cash, don't have to rely on as much 'equipment' or physical construction for operating.

Industrial-type of companies carry a lot more debt, rely on steady global manufacturing/agricultural activity (and that can tank a lot more than say the use of Microsoft servers), and require expensive cap-ex. Moreover, they are more cyclical, so if we see a big recession, I would expect them to contract even more.

This is mostly intuition. Can anyone give me an example of an industrial you'd expect to outperform a company like MSFT in a rising rate environment?

The price charts of industrials just look so much riskier to me, and timing seems even more important than for GOOG or AAPL.

Can we survive without tech? Think about: $GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL $AMZN $META $NFLX $ADBE ….and many more. Tech is the new consumer staple , that’s why 40% of Buffett’s portfolio is in Apple stock

What are your thoughts on ADBE now?

What do you see as dirt cheap? I’m watching: $GOOG $ADBE $META $LRCX $QCOM $INTC $PYPL $AOS $DPZ $TROW $BLK

I feel stupid for buying $ADBE at $400

All of those are down more than the S&P. NVDA, META, AMD, NFLX, ADBE, PYPL are all down >50%.

Adbe is down 50%. Can always buy a share and average down.

From their FY21 10K, page 43:

Net income of $4.82 billion decreased by $438 million, or 8%, during fiscal 2021 from $5.26 billion in fiscal 2020 primarily due to the change in provision for income taxes, which was largely driven by the non-recurring benefit from income taxes recognized in fiscal 2020 associated with our intra-entity transfers of certain intellectual property rights. To a lesser extent, net income was also impacted by increases in operating expenses, offset by increases in revenue.

ADBE had positive YOY net income growth for three of the four quarters in 2021: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ADBE/adobe/net-income. The only one that was negative was 11/30, and that was very tough comps from the last quarter of 2020, which had an atypical spike in income. I'd say it had four quarters of unusually high profit, due to Covid lockdowns, and will now likely resume its historical trajectory.