Doubled my position in CLF for a hefty 5% of my entire portfolio.

I think they’ll get a lot of tailwind from upcoming infrastructure spending. I think they are oversold. Lots of insider buying recently. Alabama senator bought a lot in March at higher prices.

Risks are their debt is pretty substantial (more than I typically take on in a company), margins are low, and commodities are volatile/risky by their nature. But I think the 5 year hold upside is huge.

Picked up some CLF today. CEO and a director bought a lot of shares 4/27 at ~14.90 price, and I do love some strong insider buying on a company I already like.

I put all my Chipotle gains into CLF the moment before the CEO made a market purchase of 100,000 shares. I think "C" stocks are my bread and butter.

^^It's ^^Carvana ^^time.

I made a market purchase of CLF at the same exact time as the CEO. I'm horny.

Based volume on CLF 🙏

Anyone buying CLF?

Gold is the exception to your analysis, as I think you have called the top a bit prematurely. Your analysis on all the other metals are spot on.

When interest rates were rising, this was due to fear of inflation and a strong economy. So copper, iron ore, oil, platinum, steel futures were rising.

When interest rates (at least the US 10 yr interest rates) started to fall, Gold started rising while the other metals/commodities started to fall due to recession fears.

I own a lot of commodity stocks. $HAL, $PSX, $CLF, $MOS, $FCX, $VALE, and $GOLD are a few of my larger holdings. Gold often times moves opposite of the other commodity stocks in my port and has done so for years.

I will simply buy more CLF

I work in finance, specifically I work in financial reporting. While not impossible manipulate earnings it is pretty difficult especially to do it consistently, at least to a large enough amount to make large market moves. The financials are also audited by a third party occasionally and looked at by many of the investors, if they are off it could raise a red flag.

I’m not super familiar with CLF other than knowing it’s been very volatile for at least the last few years (Robinhood app used to give out shares of CLF to new users so I have owned some). What might be happening is that thy issue guidance for what they expect their earnings to be, then news comes out the XXX bill was passed that demands more steel to be made and the stock climbs really high. Then as earnings get closer and the whisper reports come out and they are no where near guidance the stock starts to drop. Then if the earnings is a miss it’ll drop even further.

So for example at a very brief look: Q3 2022 was a 65% drop in cash flow, Q4 was another 57% decline in cash flow, Q1 was 107% decline in cash flow and is no longer cash flowing. This is all happening while multiple bills were passed that are expected to increase demand for steel. Reality is that demand won’t hit for years, but the expectation was immediate. Also the fact they’re not a profitable business and hasn’t been for awhile makes it very volatile.

CLF. It's a steel company. I know the price of steel is sporadic but is there any way it fluctuates 4 times a year coincidentally going down at the end of every quarter?

Hoping CLF goes up a dollar fam

CLF

1Q REV. $5.30B, EST. $5.22B

1Q LOSS/SHR CONT OPS 11C, EST. LOSS/SHR 20C

CLF 🦾🦾

Why are people thinking calls for CLF? All the earnings estimates I can find are super down from last year and it tends to drop after earnings or go up barely

#Ban Bet Lost

/u/OhThatsSo made a bet that CLF would go to 20.0 within 2 weeks when it was 17.765 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

Their record is now 0 wins and 1 losses

Ehh you're expecting a 25% pump? CLF is highly cyclical and may have a darker outlook for the next 12 months.

What are your thoughts?

Who else got some $1 20.5 clf calls? I’m hoping for a good earnings call and to make a few bucks

CLF calls

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1651 companies reporting:

$MSFT 4.1%
$GOOGL 5.4%
$META 9.1%
$AMZN 7.1%
$SNAP 15.8%
$PINS 10.0%
$INTC 6.9%
$ATVI 7.6%
$NET 11.2%
$FSLR 7.6%
$AMGN 3.2%
$GILD 3.5%
$DXCM 9.7%
$SKX 9.3%
$SAM 10.7%
$AYX 13.8%
$MHK 10.3%
$FICO 8.3%
$XOM 3.0%
$CVX 2.9%
$CL 3.9%
$CHTR 6.7%
$ROKU 13.6%
$TDOC 12.2%
$NOW 6.5%
$CAT 4.7%
$ABBV 3.0%
$MA 3.3%
$LLY 4.1%
$DPZ 5.8%
$CROX 9.7%
$MRK 2.8%
$LUV 5.1%
$HON 3.3%
$BMY 2.6%
$HAS 9.0%
$HOG 8.1%
$NEM 3.9%
$ALGN 10.0%
$EBAY 5.7%
$WM 2.6%
$ORLY 5.3%
$QS 11.5%
$NVRO 15.5%
$VKTX 23.2%
$BA 4.7%
$HES 4.4%
$HUM 3.2%
$V 3.5%
$CMG 6.2%
$TXN 4.4%
$BYD 6.7%
$JNPR 5.2%
$AZZ 7.4%
$ILMN 6.7%
$TECK 5.6%
$TMO 4.0%
$CME 3.0%
$R 8.6%
$UPS 5.0%
$VZ 4.1%
$GM 5.9%
$MCD 2.6%
$GE 4.6%
$SPOT 9.3%
$PEP 2.2%
$MMM 4.5%
$RTX 3.0%
$JBLU 8.0%
$DHR 4.2%
$BIIB 4.3%
$UBS 8.1%
$GLW 5.1%
$FISV 4.2%
$PII 8.2%
$SHW 7.1%
$TRU 8.6%
$HUBB 6.6%
$NVS 4.2%
$CLF 7.3%
$FRC 27.7%
$WHR 4.8%
$BRO 5.4%
$CDNS 6.5%
$KO 2.1%

​

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1651 companies reporting:

$MSFT 4.1%
$GOOGL 5.4%
$META 9.1%
$AMZN 7.1%
$SNAP 15.8%
$PINS 10.0%
$INTC 6.9%
$ATVI 7.6%
$NET 11.2%
$FSLR 7.6%
$AMGN 3.2%
$GILD 3.5%
$DXCM 9.7%
$SKX 9.3%
$SAM 10.7%
$AYX 13.8%
$MHK 10.3%
$FICO 8.3%
$XOM 3.0%
$CVX 2.9%
$CL 3.9%
$CHTR 6.7%
$ROKU 13.6%
$TDOC 12.2%
$NOW 6.5%
$CAT 4.7%
$ABBV 3.0%
$MA 3.3%
$LLY 4.1%
$DPZ 5.8%
$CROX 9.7%
$MRK 2.8%
$LUV 5.1%
$HON 3.3%
$BMY 2.6%
$HAS 9.0%
$HOG 8.1%
$NEM 3.9%
$ALGN 10.0%
$EBAY 5.7%
$WM 2.6%
$ORLY 5.3%
$QS 11.5%
$NVRO 15.5%
$VKTX 23.2%
$BA 4.7%
$HES 4.4%
$HUM 3.2%
$V 3.5%
$CMG 6.2%
$TXN 4.4%
$BYD 6.7%
$JNPR 5.2%
$AZZ 7.4%
$ILMN 6.7%
$TECK 5.6%
$TMO 4.0%
$CME 3.0%
$R 8.6%
$UPS 5.0%
$VZ 4.1%
$GM 5.9%
$MCD 2.6%
$GE 4.6%
$SPOT 9.3%
$PEP 2.2%
$MMM 4.5%
$RTX 3.0%
$JBLU 8.0%
$DHR 4.2%
$BIIB 4.3%
$UBS 8.1%
$GLW 5.1%
$FISV 4.2%
$PII 8.2%
$SHW 7.1%
$TRU 8.6%
$HUBB 6.6%
$NVS 4.2%
$CLF 7.3%
$FRC 27.7%
$WHR 4.8%
$BRO 5.4%
$CDNS 6.5%
$KO 2.1%

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-04-24

$CLF | Cleveland Cliffs Inc: 11.66% | 1.43% | 7.44%

$KO | Coca Cola Company: 3.09% | 2.74% | 2.04%

2023-04-25

$GOOG | Alphabet Inc: 5.74% | 6.49% | 5.36%

$UPS | United Parcel Service: 5.08% | 5.49% | 5.03%

$V | Visa Inc: 4.27% | 4.1% | 3.42%

$TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated: 4.36% | 3.93% | 4.55%

$PEP | PepsiCo Inc: 2.23% | 2.64% | 2.21%

$NEE | NextEra Energy Inc: 3.01% | 5.46% | 5.54%

$GM | General Motors Company: 4.63% | 9.69% | 6.35%

$NVS | : 2.37% | 4.15% | 4.04%

$DHR | Danaher Corporation: 3.79% | 5.69% | 4.53%

$MCD | McDonalds Corp: 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.65%

$MSFT | Microsoft Corporation: 4.69% | 1.93% | 4.24%

$RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corporation: 3.16% | 3.79% | 3.0%

$GE | General Electric Company: 5.25% | 1.04% | 4.72%

$VZ | Verizon Communications Inc: 3.15% | 3.32% | 4.16%

2023-04-26

$NOW | ServiceNow Inc: 8.27% | 1.03% | 6.41%

$META | : 8.12% | 28.38% | 9.27%

$BA | Boeing Co: 4.86% | 3.52% | 4.81%

$AMT | American Tower Corporation: 3.26% | 4.84% | 6.4%

$ADP | Automatic Data Processing Inc: 3.98% | 6.08% | 3.92%

$TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: 3.65% | 4.72% | 4.22%

2023-04-27

$MA | MasterCard Incorporated: 4.35% | 2.5% | 3.43%

$LLY | Eli Lilly and Co: 3.81% | 7.99% | 3.37%

$AMZN | Amazon com: 7.14% | 7.3% | 7.36%

$ABBV | AbbVie Inc: 5.43% | 6.39% | 3.04%

$MO | Altria Group Inc: 3.3% | 5.86% | 2.29%

$BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb Co: 3.38% | 1.77% | 2.63%

$INTC | Intel Corporation: 6.45% | 3.72% | 6.89%

$CAT | Caterpillar Inc: 4.68% | 5.7% | 4.66%

$MRK | Merck and Co Inc: 3.44% | 4.08% | 2.91%

$CMCSA | Comcast Corporation: 3.92% | 2.98% | 4.41%

$AMGN | Amgen Inc: 4.21% | 2.18% | 3.39%

2023-04-28

$CHTR | Charter Communications Inc New: 5.81% | 4.54% | 8.89%

$CVX | Chevron Corporation: 4.04% | 5.27% | 3.66%

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-04-24

$CLF | Cleveland Cliffs Inc: 11.66% | 1.43% | 7.44%

$KO | Coca Cola Company: 3.09% | 2.74% | 2.04%

2023-04-25

$GOOG | Alphabet Inc: 5.74% | 6.49% | 5.36%

$UPS | United Parcel Service: 5.08% | 5.49% | 5.03%

$V | Visa Inc: 4.27% | 4.1% | 3.42%

$TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated: 4.36% | 3.93% | 4.55%

$PEP | PepsiCo Inc: 2.23% | 2.64% | 2.21%

$NEE | NextEra Energy Inc: 3.01% | 5.46% | 5.54%

$GM | General Motors Company: 4.63% | 9.69% | 6.35%

$NVS | : 2.37% | 4.15% | 4.04%

$DHR | Danaher Corporation: 3.79% | 5.69% | 4.53%

$MCD | McDonalds Corp: 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.65%

$MSFT | Microsoft Corporation: 4.69% | 1.93% | 4.24%

$RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corporation: 3.16% | 3.79% | 3.0%

$GE | General Electric Company: 5.25% | 1.04% | 4.72%

$VZ | Verizon Communications Inc: 3.15% | 3.32% | 4.16%

2023-04-26

$NOW | ServiceNow Inc: 8.27% | 1.03% | 6.41%

$META | : 8.12% | 28.38% | 9.27%

$BA | Boeing Co: 4.86% | 3.52% | 4.81%

$AMT | American Tower Corporation: 3.26% | 4.84% | 6.4%

$ADP | Automatic Data Processing Inc: 3.98% | 6.08% | 3.92%

$TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: 3.65% | 4.72% | 4.22%

2023-04-27

$MA | MasterCard Incorporated: 4.35% | 2.5% | 3.43%

$LLY | Eli Lilly and Co: 3.81% | 7.99% | 3.37%

$AMZN | Amazon com: 7.14% | 7.3% | 7.36%

$ABBV | AbbVie Inc: 5.43% | 6.39% | 3.04%

$MO | Altria Group Inc: 3.3% | 5.86% | 2.29%

$BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb Co: 3.38% | 1.77% | 2.63%

$INTC | Intel Corporation: 6.45% | 3.72% | 6.89%

$CAT | Caterpillar Inc: 4.68% | 5.7% | 4.66%

$MRK | Merck and Co Inc: 3.44% | 4.08% | 2.91%

$CMCSA | Comcast Corporation: 3.92% | 2.98% | 4.41%

$AMGN | Amgen Inc: 4.21% | 2.18% | 3.39%

2023-04-28

$CHTR | Charter Communications Inc New: 5.81% | 4.54% | 8.89%

$CVX | Chevron Corporation: 4.04% | 5.27% | 3.66%

Got some clf calls not sure why but hey

World steel association forecasts steel demand to continue rising higher than previous estimates

CLF - down

Some random “analyst” no one has ever heard “raises price target” (AKA posts rocket emojis) on NVIDIA

Nvidia - up 2.5%

I like CLF

I bought $MOS, $CLF, and $WNC shares this morning. Farmers are running out of time to buy fertilizer before the planting season begins, so I think the bottom is in there. Cleveland-Cliff is an increased government infrastructure spending investment. And Wabash is a crazy profitable small cap semi-truck trailer manufacturer.

And all 3 are not AI or tech stocks; but somehow they are showing growth in this market environment with forward P/E all under 10x earnings.

CLF makes up 60%. I have a good many shares.

Against my better judgement I am buying stocks here. I just bought 10 shares of $CLF, 10 shares of $HAL, and 10 shares of $GOLD.

I am going to stick with commodity producing companies amid this market uncertainty.

Also the Fed is going to pause rate hikes. A bad side affect about the Fed trying to kill demand is the Fed is also killing supply with increasing interest rates and killing jobs. Manufacturing & construction are down. So for everyone that thought inflation was caused by supply chain breakdowns and not money printing; what happens to prices when supply also goes back down? J-Pow better kill jobs faster than the falling supply of manufactured goods.

CLF bagholder

You already have a bet going - CLF to 20.0 before 24-Apr-2023 10:30 AM -05

CLF - I believe in the future of US Steel. Let’s goooo 🦾

CLF calls

My biggest losers from last week were my biggest winners today. I got a nice bounce from $TITN, $TWI, $LEVI, and $CLF.

The way the market was punishing small caps thou makes me want to wait until after earnings to add to these stocks. $LEVI earnings are out of the way so that was my buy today.

Ban Bet Created: /u/OhThatsSo bet CLF goes from 17.77 to 20.0 before 24-Apr-2023 11:30 AM EDT

Their record is 0 wins and 0 losses.

!banbet CLF 20 2w

Head and shoulders forming on the 1 day CLF chart 0.0

CLF fitna pump til earnings $$$

Bers r fuk

CLF calls when price approaches 16 dollars has never failed me. I don't need to look at any data at all 16 dollars is the spot.

I am long commodity stocks. My largest stock holdings are $GOLD, $MOS, $KMI, $HAL, and $CLF.

I am not buying $GOLD here. I love gold but I prefer buying the gold miners when gold is around $1800 or lower and I am not buying when it's above $1900/ounce.

The $XLE stocks have a better upside IMHO. The pipeline stocks like $ET, $WMB, and $KMI are the risk adverse $XLE stocks to buy here. Lower reward but also lower risk to catch dividend yield rates similar & above US treasuries.

Yeah. Now the street is expecting Cleveland-Cliff to report a loss the next quarter. But you have to look at commodity companies YOY and not Q/Q.

$CLF has an advantage over $X in that they own 5 iron ore mines b/w Minnesota & Michigan. And unlike iron ore commodity miners like $VALE; $CLF has pricing power to set contracts for finished steel when they re-negotiate contracts with Ford, etc.

I think today was a recession trade day. Financials, energy, small caps all got hit hard today. There isn't much profit taking to be had given that these were the hardest hit sectors. Big tech, where there is more opportunity to take profit, isn't selling off as much.

Add on to that, commodities are getting hit hard today despite no real change in fundamentals--just vibes about future fundamentals being bad. Thermal coal prices (Newcastle) rising, met strong (good news out of China), crude oil flat even after strong showing yesterday... US steel makers announcing more price hikes (CLF).

CLF is gonna be the one to actually bring it to ya with their vertically integrated business yo

Busy buying day for me today. Picked up 10 shares of $CLF, 5 shares of $MOS, 5 shares of $HAL, and 10 shares of $WNC. I'm grinning at the gains of $GOLD in my port today.

/u/PutsRNotDaWae --- I am being bold and buying stocks today; but somehow I don't think I am part of your Team Transitory. I also doubt I am buying the same stocks that you are.

This feels like an Audioslave day in the market watching Gold pop.

So, I picked up some shares of $CLF, $MOS, and $HAL on the dip listening to the gospel of the late great Chris Cornell.

I picked up another 10 shares of $CLF.

Cleveland-Cliffs , announced that the firm would be increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products by a minimum of $100 per net ton, effective immediately. As of now, Cleveland-Cliffs' minimum base price for hot rolled steel is $1,300 per net ton. Six weeks ago, in late February, Cleveland-Cliffs increased this price to $1,100 per net ton.

I am betting that $CLF will be able to continue to raise prices faster to offset falling demand.

I'm long steel but I don't know the market well so I'm getting exposure through met coal (an input for steel). I'm a bit wary of the US steel names (X, CLF) because they primarily produce steel for domestic uses, and I don't see the US as that big of a giant for steel production/consumption as China or India, for example. So I like met coal which supplies international markets. Steel also gets hit hard by trade wars / tariffs, high energy costs, ...

Good luck with the gaping hole between your ears. No doubt it’s genetics.

That’s like saying Fujifilm is a camera company because it started out making photographic film. Things change, dumb dumb. That’s like pigeonholing Harsco as a steel services business. Or CLF as an iron ore business. Or countless other examples.

Can the universe please give me CLF $11 again.

What's that? I have another great stock named clf

WW3 oil prices should increase right? My DVN and CLF shares should pop? Eh ?

Yeah I can see a slight lowering of demand based on that but steel is used in planes, F-150s, and there's a push among the 5G crowd for steel roofs - and X (and CLF) have been able to raise their prices from demand. You would think this would make for bullishness.

My heart wants CLF at $11 again but knows it wont get it

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|10|First Seen In WSB|2 years ago Total Comments|185|Previous Best DD|x x Account Age|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)

Hey /u/nafizzaki, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: FRC is a good bank, has got backing and won't go bankrupt. It's a good stock to trade and get some good premium.

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• NVDA 04/21 255P for $12.55 or less
• AMD 04/21 95P for $4.25 or less
• GOOG 04/21 100P for $2.50 or less
• TQQQ 04/21 24P for $1.80 or less
• MARA 04/21 8P for $1.25 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• CLF 04/21 18C for $0.85 or less
• ABNB 04/21 120C for $4.65 or less
• XLP 04/21 71P for $0.95 or less
• MRNA 04/21 150P for $8.45 or less
• TGT 04/21 155P for $3.65 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)

It’s like when CLF was $11 and Meta was $86.

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|10|First Seen In WSB|2 years ago Total Comments|2634|Previous Best DD|x x x Account Age|8 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: Gamma Max Cross (NVDA 04/21 255P for $12.55 or less, AMD 04/21 95P for $4.25 or less, GOOG 04/21 100P for $2.50 or less, TQQQ 04/21 24P for $1.80 or less, MARA 04/21 8P for $1.25 or less) and Delta Neutral Cross (CLF 04/21 18C for $0.85 or less, ABNB 04/21 120C for $4.65 or less, XLP 04/21 71P for $0.95 or less)

Thanks for the CLF

$MOS and $CLF. Materials & Commodities are looking pretty weak so this might have been a mistake short term. Long term every CB will print more money and bailout every bank in the world which is inflationary.

If you sre very regarded then calls on thcx, msos, maps. Or if you are highly regarded maybe clf, x , stld

People run to safety during times of volatility. That means selling off small caps & commodities and running to blue chips. I have no idea what will happen, but I bought more $MOS earlier today and more $CLF just right now. I also sold out of $VZ for a penny gain and trimmed $GOLD just a tiny fraction.

There are parts of these banking collapses that smells like 2008. The smart man would prolyl sell everything and put it in US bonds or a simple S&P 500 index fund. I unfortunately am a bit of a gambler and I have enough of a cash position that I could live me life just the same as today with a 50% market drop.

Clf getting killed

Wtf is CLF

My heart wants CLF at $11 again but it won’t get it

Thoughts on CLF?

Buy CLF puts duh

CLF is down 11% in last year

FCX - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. - Copper

MLM - Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. - Building Materials

VMC - Vulcan Materials Company - Building Materials

CLF - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc - Steel

X - United States Steel Corporation - Steel

NUE - Nucor Corporation - Steel

URI - United Rentals, Inc. - Rental & Leasing Services

Same kind of boat, still been eyeballing DKNG and CLF and been pleased...

Wish I’d bought more CLF down around $13 when I did. A lot more, obviously.

Lucas does not work for CLF...

>o

this was a year and a half ago and the company is fine, this is just the CEOs style, i personally don't like it but despite that CLF are pretty well positioned IMO

This is like two years old. I heard this live. If you all don’t already CLF earnings calls are by far the most entertaining. I don’t own stock in them and I still listen every quarter. You never know what that guy is going to say.
Last year he asked a guy if he knew he was that dumb or if he was so dumb he didn’t know. 😂

My only regret is not having more CLF.

Fuck me, yes... CLF

You mean CLF? Did good for me last year... Sounds toxic AF now

That’s what I’m saying… I’ve got DKNG and clf calls for past 3/3 that slayed it and 3/10 that are saying it… I don’t like vying spy calls or put over weekends especially, and I have to watch those a lot closer….

I honestly can’t lay off DKNG and clf calls… came across clf on a high volatility chart and been killing…

CLF keeps raising steel prices yet inflation is coming down?

I jumped on CLF 3/3 call on 2/28 and a 3/10 one on 3/1 and I’m very pleasantly surprised… wish would have bought more… saw it in high volume chart and rolled the dice… weeeee

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• CLF 04/21 22P for $1.25 or less
• BTU 04/21 27P for $1.70 or less
• AA 04/21 50P for $2.20 or less
• SHEL 04/21 60P for $0.90 or less
• TWLO 04/21 70P for $4.70 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• GOOGL 04/21 95C for $2.95 or less
• EFA 04/21 70C for $1.60 or less
• XLI 04/21 102P for $2.15 or less
• KO 04/21 60C for $1.00 or less
• PARA 04/21 22.5C for $1.15 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.76), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 62% and 77%. (Stats as of 2023-02-28)

Boil, clf, yinn lfggg gottammit keep it goin

I think any investor should have at least a 10-20% allocation to international stocks (VXUS). https://imgur.com/a/5O5xgrd

There are always individual stocks worth investing in if you're willing to do some research into it. Here are some of the recent names that have come up in the past discussion threads that seemed interesting to me valuation-wise. I'll put a * next to the ones I own. Big tech (META *, GOOG * , CRM), agriculture (MOS, CF, IPI, TWI), mid-tech (CLFD * , PSTG), lumber/homebuilders (UFPI * , LPX, BCC, BLDR, TREX, DHI), financials (WAL, various Canadian banks), coal (BTU * , AMR * , ARCH, CEIX), steel (CLF, X), copper (FCX * , Teck, WIRE), oil & gas (PBR, FLNG), semiconductors (TXN, QCOM, MU, DIOD), railroads (UNP, CP, CNI), defense (NOC), healthcare (CVS, PFE), DAR, ATKR, MLI, ASO, ...

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• MP 03/17 30P for $0.15 or less
• SDOW 03/17 28P for $1.00 or less
• ZIM 03/17 23.5P for $1.25 or less
• COTY 03/17 11P for $0.20 or less
• CLF 03/17 21P for $0.55 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• SLV 03/17 19.5C for $0.25 or less
• EFA 03/17 68.5P for $0.45 or less
• SNAP 03/17 10.5C for $0.35 or less
• FCX 03/17 41C for $1.30 or less
• USO 03/17 67.5C for $1.60 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 60% and 78%. (Stats as of 2023-01-31)

Weird market. $FCX, $CLF, and $X are breaking out. You wouldn't expect Copper and Steel to outperform if we are about to hit a recession. DXY is moving lower and Gold is moving higher. This is usually a good sign for stocks as a whole.

I’ve heard share buy backs don’t even improve the price on average statistically.

That being said I think the CLF management have a devout religious type faith in their company and see it as insanely undervalued as we may potentially be entering a steel super cycle.

They see anything under $40 as must buy territory and the execs back it up with their own personal purchases.

Yeah I mean look at any buyback over the last 18 months and good bet they overpaid.

One that comes to mind is CLF buying shares at like $21 saying it was a bargain only to find itself back at $14 a share less than a year later. It’s since back up around $20 but point is management could have saved a fuck ton of money if they’d been more patient.

I’m sure it’s the same story for hundreds of other companies.

I'll load up on CLF puts

$CLF and $MOS commodity freight train is about to depart on its next bull run.

If you want to start investing look at what the world needs right now and that is food and energy. I would buy leveraged ETFs or non leveraged depending on your risk reward level. You are young still I would go 2x leveraged not 3x. I recommend investing in Natural Gas as of now. It is far over sold. Does not mean it can’t drop a bit more but looking historically it’s dirt cheap. I also recommend American Steel companies like CLF and X near end of May buys. I see a correction coming between now and then. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

It looks like the market wants to go defensive. We are seeing a rush to the metals. $FCX, $CLF, $VALE are a few I own that are up this morning.

I lost $1800 in Options Land. Literally said, let's buy 100 CLF and write CCs. This was July 2021. Fucking worked great. Then, once I sold my position, I diversified. Still have made terrible picks TLRY at $9 (sold at $5) SDIG at $8 (sold at $4). For the most part I am responsible. Still trade a strangle here n there. More focused on low cost index funds through my 401k and physical gold and silver.

My advice is suspect. I was right on buying the $XLE stocks and the Ag stocks in 2020, but wrong on going heavy into Barrick thinking Gold would outperform with high inflation. $FCX has way outperformed $GOLD.

I tend to buy stocks in industries I understand. I understand how agriculture works. So when I see food prices rising, I look at the commodity prices for wheat and corn. And ask myself where would I spend my profits if I was a farmer? I am big into $MOS and $IPI but I have been buying more $TWI and $CNHI stock recently.

If I was looking to buy coal, I would buy $SXC over $BTU. Suncoke mines the coal to make the coke used to make steel. But again u/AP9384629344432 is more into copper and coal than I am. I tend to be more bullish on iron ore and gold. My reasoning is that the electrification of everything is unattainable. Solar is great in California but a piss poor energy source in Germany. So I believe the future demand for copper & silver to make solar panels everywhere won't happen. We will have a diversified renewable energy that is different based on every countries geography. But that means crude oil & natty gas will be used to build the new energy infrastructure.

I am looking for opinions to prove me wrong. I do need to diversify a bit. $KMI, $GOLD, $MOS, $IPI, and $GGB/$CLF are my 5 biggest holdings and I am way way too much commodity heavy in my port.

Not sure what to buy for the long term rn... I love CLF and it's dipping today. Maybe I'll dump some money into that. My short term trades always blow up lol

CLF

Not the first time CLF has come out 12 hours early. Not sure why they were in such a hurry to disappoint

Damn did CLF earnings leak

Implied moves for earnings next week, 516 companies reporting:

​

$SHOP 11.2%
$ROKU 15.9%
$DDOG 11.7%
$DKNG 12.9%
$AMAT 6.3%
$DASH 13.8%
$SBLK 7.0%
$SWAV 9.9%
$RDFN 19.4%
$HAS 7.6%
$CROX 13.3%
$PARA 9.2%
$POOL 7.4%
$SHAK 9.7%
$WE 27.9%
$BLMN 9.5%
$LH 4.7%
$CSCO 6.1%
$TWLO 17.5%
$UPWK 13.6%
$FSLY 18.2%
$NTR 5.9%
$DE 4.8%
$ZG 11.6%
$RNG 14.2%
$AIG 4.4%
$AMED 8.8%
$EQIX 4.8%
$RBLX 15.1%
$TTD 14.1%
$KHC 4.6%
$BIIB 5.0%
$ADI 4.7%
$GNRC 10.6%
$SUN 3.1%
$CHEF 10.1%
$UPST 22.1%
$ABNB 9.2%
$LTHM 10.2%
$NU 12.0%
$TRIP 10.9%
$SU 5.1%
$PLTR 12.3%
$KO 3.2%
$CLF 8.3%
$BTU 10.2%
$MAR 4.4%
$TRU 5.9%
$ZTS 4.2%
$INMD 8.9%
$GDDY 6.6%
$CAR 17.5%
$ANET 7.7%
$SEDG 12.3%
$CDNS 5.2%
$MNDY 15.4%
$CHKP 5.1%
$TDC 9.4%

Implied moves for earnings next week, 516 companies reporting:

​

$SHOP 11.2%
$ROKU 15.9%
$DDOG 11.7%
$DKNG 12.9%
$AMAT 6.3%
$DASH 13.8%
$SBLK 7.0%
$SWAV 9.9%
$RDFN 19.4%
$HAS 7.6%
$CROX 13.3%
$PARA 9.2%
$POOL 7.4%
$SHAK 9.7%
$WE 27.9%
$BLMN 9.5%
$LH 4.7%
$CSCO 6.1%
$TWLO 17.5%
$UPWK 13.6%
$FSLY 18.2%
$NTR 5.9%
$DE 4.8%
$ZG 11.6%
$RNG 14.2%
$AIG 4.4%
$AMED 8.8%
$EQIX 4.8%
$RBLX 15.1%
$TTD 14.1%
$KHC 4.6%
$BIIB 5.0%
$ADI 4.7%
$GNRC 10.6%
$SUN 3.1%
$CHEF 10.1%
$UPST 22.1%
$ABNB 9.2%
$LTHM 10.2%
$NU 12.0%
$TRIP 10.9%
$SU 5.1%
$PLTR 12.3%
$KO 3.2%
$CLF 8.3%
$BTU 10.2%
$MAR 4.4%
$TRU 5.9%
$ZTS 4.2%
$INMD 8.9%
$GDDY 6.6%
$CAR 17.5%
$ANET 7.7%
$SEDG 12.3%
$CDNS 5.2%
$MNDY 15.4%
$CHKP 5.1%
$TDC 9.4%

Calls on CLF.

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|10|First Seen In WSB|2 months ago Total Comments|92|Previous Best DD|x Account Age|8 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: The market is bullish, and we are seeing some bullish price action in individual stocks. TSLA, NVDA, and NKE look like they are setting up for a move higher. CLF and RIOT look like they could benefit from the overall market bullishness and the bullish price action in BTC.