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Costco Wholesale Corporation

COSTNASDAQ

416.43

USD
-6.50
(-1.54%)
Market Closed
33.56P/E
29Forward P/E
1.29P/E to S&P500
184.572BMarket CAP
0.75%Div Yield
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This is typically referred to as "hard money lending". You loan a real estate investor money to complete a project and they pay you back when the house gets sold or refinanced.

Here are some things that can go wrong, just off the top of my head.

If you do have to foreclose on a property it will cost time and money. The house may require additional money to complete or be sold at a loss.

Since you are lending to individuals they could disappear and steal from you.

Only using vetted individuals to invest in will reduce risk but also limits the number of on going projects. Not really making 8-10% if money sits unused for stretches.

Time intensive process since each project needs to be carefully examined.

If it was easy money everyone would do it. Just Google problems with hard money lending and I am sure more issues come up. That said there are definitely people who make a living doing this type of lending.

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Depending on open, I'm thinking 100 - 105 calls, and an 85p a couple weeks out, looking for the CCS to cover the cost of the long put.

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COST calls before earnings. Only retailer to knock it out of the park and they will have decent guidance

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Idiotic title. They obviously can, the question is: At what cost?

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One week out, Strike of 2050 was $99, which of course is $9,900. The $2600 is the difference between my cost basis and selling at $2050.

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Risks:

Collections and foreclosure is very expensive. (Even more so if the home is in a locality with a special foreclosure court)

Your cost of capital can be expensive and losing access to that capital can ruin your business.

A recession can turn off the faucet straight away.

You’re usually lending to flippers so your collateral may be unfinished or worth less than when the loan was ‘originated’

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Well in my example I'd have a disallowed loss of 50 dollars. So my proceeds were 145 with a cost 150 with a disallowed loss of 50 bringing my loss down to 5.

Go add up the basis of the shares you washed on if you question it but I'd be very surprised if it's wrong. I'm assuming you have other stocks you traded? If you made money on them your over all loss will be less.

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Gotcha, I am indeed in the US. Due to cost, I am honestly fine with base model of either since the features are enough for me, anything additional would be extra. Your insight has been very useful, so thank you for that!

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If you enroll in college or community college you could take out student loans (you can use them for tuition, books, and cost of living such as rent and food) to get a head start. You are probably also eligible for grants (free money) and scholarships due to your mother’s lack of income, you can find out by filling out the FAFSA. There is an application fee for applying for college but you can most likely get a fee waiver because you are low income, email the college about how to obtain one.

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Are you in the US?

The Mazda 3 trims have been reworked here so there’s no longer a GT. They honestly have too many versions now. There’s a 2.0 liter that gets better gas mileage but is slower, and then all the others are 2.5 liters but have different features. They also have a turbo model but that will cost you $30k+.

The Premium trim is going to have almost all of the bells and whistles and also has AWD if that matters to you. The Turbo Premium Plus is the complete package and comes with the most safety features but that’s the most expensive at $33k.

I don’t know too much about Honda’s but I believe they come with more safety features than Mazda’s when buying a base model.

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There are two of the top 60 disc golf courses in the world in my state, and we have about as many IMBA epic rated MB trails as Colorado at a fraction of the cost.

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> have literally no idea what you bought and sold stuff at so I can't really answer this.

I just said it because all my proceeds were indicated as 56,929.18, my cost was 59,995.27 so a net loss of 3066.09. However, in my form, the wash sale loss disallowed was still showing as 2,678.86, bringing the loss down to 387. Even though I am all closed out way before end of year.

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How much does this kind of service normally cost? Been talking with my wife about this also since she just went back to work now that our sons are getting a bit older. I help when I can but I work quite a bit and I’d like our downtime to be spent together doing something more exciting than cleaning

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Do you actually want to know?

  1. Be upper income for your area, and I mean make average household income on a single income, and live below your means

  2. Save like hell

  3. Participate in free or at least relatively low cost wholesome social events

  4. Take care of your body

This is the best way to take care of yourself on an individual level (in my experience) so that you can have an individually positive life. You'll see your savings grow and then eventually be able to purchase a small dwelling in a mid-size city about half an hour from downtown. If you bought at the beginning of this housing situation then you would have had the best of both worlds with low rates and prices that weren't through the stratosphere, so it's the perfect time to make sure you're saving for a down payment the next time we see an interest rate crash.

If you're talking about societally, well once you're living a more positive individual life it's a lot easier to be positive about the world. I'm also a UBI proponent, and believe that if we can get legislation for that passed within the next two decades then we'll probably make it out all right.

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How do you figure this isnt adding up? Upstate New York is roughly the same cost as where I am in California. My monthly housing expense is around 1300/mo between rent, water, electricity and internet. OP has two additional expenses, taxes and heat. He already stated taxes are 500/mo. My parents, who live in a much warmer place than NY, spend about 350-400 every other month for heating at a minimal amount. If they heated at a comfortable rate, it would easily be $750 every other month.

I'm honestly jealous of OPs living expenses.

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The cost here now to build a lower end house is 300 dollars a square foot. That makes a pretty small 1500 square foot house cost 450k without even factoring the land. Trades labor (plumbers, electricians, heating/cooling) are all over 100/hr. Materials are through the roof. The only chance we have at affordable housing are giant Soviet style apartment buildings where economies of scale can reduce prices.

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Part of what we pay insurance companies for is the negotiation of pricing. When it's half the price with no insurance, it becomes very clear that insurance companies are purposely inflating prices as justification to increase premiums and up profits. The hospitals are very openly showing us it should cost less. The insurance companies are making medical care more expensive than it should be for all of us.

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I highly recommend working with a wealth management team at a major financial institution or brokerage firm with the level of funds being discussed. They will be able to provide a broad set of services for high net worth clients many just a financial advisor can not provide.

Charles Schwab, Fidelity, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, US bank, Citi, Vanguard, etc.

Yes this will cost more than a fee only, but there is less she needs to do and less risk of screwing this up. Setting up the funds in a trust that protects her and future heirs is key. Otherwise let the experts sort this and support her.

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  1. Thanks! I agree! I heard Toyota is very reliable. I was looking for a car with some cargo space, but not too big. I also wanted a car to save on gas in the long run. Would the reliability of the car decrease insurance cost?
  2. Thanks for the tip! I didn’t know what OEM was until now. What website or insurance company do you recommend for car insurance? I will live in North Carolina.
  3. Yeah, I had the choice between living within a fully furnished apartment at $710/month or a unfurnished house at $650/month (not including utilities). I chose the latter because it should come out to be about the same cost—even though I will have to share a bathroom and deal with a small closet in the house. I chose it because I could be with people I know and try to become friends with. Anyway, I’ll definitely buy all my furniture off Facebook or Goodwill then. No IKEA near me, sadly.
  4. Thank you so much! I know to stay frugal and only invest in quality items that will sustain me. I don’t go out to eat much, so I should be good. Hopefully, I can save enough to cover expenses that medical school scholarships may not cover.
  5. Thank you! Great advice! Haha, I’ll try not to fall into the relationship trap until I get a stable career and house.
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On the basis risk side, this is really a risk to excess spread (interest earned on assets - cost of funding > 0) and I don’t have access to underlying transaction documents so can’t say but I would assume for transactions where there is a material portion of the asset base earning LIBOR and liabilities paying SOFR+ that it’s either 1) hedged with a swap or 2) there will come a point where the loan holders will call a benchmark transition event to switch the loans to SOFR. At the same time, the real risk here is that your assets benchmark rate drops materially below your liabilities benchmark rate such that whatever CSA that was assumed at close is blown out and your excess spread evaporates. I do not see this as being an issue as LIBOR rates should either stay flat or tick up (relative to SOFR) as it gets phased out, to the point where the benchmark transition language will be triggered.

On the loan risk side - I agree. Part of the massive drop in cost of borrowing in the private loan market has been driven by huge inflows of capital to CLO strategies as they have some nifty tools which are nice for investors (ratings, all collateral market at par, floating rate, deep market, ability to choose perceived risk/return…). As rates rise and the economy slows these structures will be tested. I haven’t read rating agency stress run reports in a while but I think the stresses to first dollar loss on most of the sub (between senior and mezz) tranches are still pretty punitive. Mezz holders may easily see a loss.

To me the biggest risk is as the economy slows and rates rise, rating agencies will be caught on the back foot with their ratings of some weak corporate borrowers and they’ll have to downgrade them. As they downgrade them it may trigger either forced selling of the loans from CLO structures (as they need to maintain their WARFs) or it’ll trigger downgrades of CLO tranches which could start a circular spiral of sell offs as some buyers of CLOs have mandates that have rating requirements for holdings.

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I don’t think inflation under control after 2% is going to do it. I think it will be 5%.

Just as a reminder CPI is the cooked consumer number. But PPI is the true real producer price index and that is what the government really needs to control otherwise real earnings will get crushed and companies will fail.

Look at every earnings release that has come out… cost of goods sold (COGS) is rising faster than the net income. The inflation is killing net margins of companies. This is all that matters. If margins go down stocks go down… rest is all chatter.

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Par meaning the cost for the rate doesn’t have discount points or lender credits. If you any more questions let me know

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Long term care insurance. My parents had it & it paid 100% of the nursing home cost. Private room, small, private facility, with only 50 beds. $8,000 a month.

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Have you seen the cost of fast food lately?

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I would look to be loading COST in the mid-400s. So, yes please.

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I think you're asking the wrong question, buy the car that will provide the proper value in your life, not the one you can afford.

>I see people who make much less than me driving around new vehicles all the time, but my mindset doesn’t compute why or how that works.

Don't worry about what other people do, most of them are riding around in cars that they're underwater in and are an accident away from being completely screwed financially.

Every dollar you spend is more time you'll need to work to get to financial independence or retirement. However you can spend as much money on the car as you find value in. Personally I believe in saving up cash for a car before you buy it even if you choose to finance it. It provides options and helps you make sure you're not manipulated by monthly payments and understand the true cost.

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It’s definitely possible that he doesn’t suspend exports. The counter-argument is that it’s an election year and he is getting heavily blamed for domestic energy cost increases. I don’t think most people blaming him really understand the issue, but it is contributing to his ever-decreasing polling numbers. I think it is realistic that he is pressured to do it at some point.

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Moving backwards after looking at some of the thread below in addition to your original post.

  1. Dream cars are not for 18 year olds that make 24k a year. Dream cars are for folks that make at least 4 to 5 times what the car is worth. They are dream cars for a reason. That reason is not that they are easily attainable or should be.
  2. The bank will stop you from making a bad move. So this shouldn't even be a discussion. You're not ready for that yet. Accept it and move on.
  3. The guidance would be to take that car with 160k on it and figure out how much it will cost to make it road worthy and reliable in the short term. This is not a flashy use of money, but it's the smart use of money cause you will be able to either pay that up front or finance it much more easily.
  4. Last, the reason why older cars get to be beaters and why they are called beaters is because someone didn't take care of them in the first place.

Example.
97 Pontiac Sunfire, never missed a maintenance. Retired in 2021 with 282k on it.
08 Toyota Prius, never missed a maintenance. Still rolling with 226k on it. Just took it cross-country without missing a beat.

Over the years I have put a new paint job on the Sunfire and replaced exhausts and radiators and other things. All that considered it added up to less than I originally paid for the car. Sunfire was 12k at the time, Prius was 24k at the time. I'm not you but I was making more than the cars costed at the times they were purchased. Generally, that's good and safe purchasing.

My own dream car is the 69 Mustang Boss 429. I'll get that once my kid is out of college, my mortgage is paid off and I have the price saved up.

Good luck.

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So without any spending from 99.9% of the population a small group of people could cover the cost for a whole year? That's actually pretty insane. Also with how the world is set up those same people would still be ultra wealthy after a year in their current positions.

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There's more to people's career than just median salary of an area. That figure really has no nuance. And to be clear, I'm in no way defending the ridiculous housing market of, say, the bay area. Home prices are absolutely fucked there, and certainly not proportional to even bay area salaries. But the calculus is far more complicated than just "oh, move to a low cost of living area". There's plenty of valid reasons a person living in a higher cost of living area wouldn't/couldn't do that.

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OP is referring to the median cost, not average. Which it highly sensitive to changes in the types of houses that are being sold.

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Have you thought about becoming a truck driver? It is relatively easy to enter the industry. You have two routes:

​

  1. Pay for a CDL school, usually in the 3k to 6k range. I would go for the cheapest option. Most CDL schools only teach you the very basic, the stuff you need to know and do to past your test; they doesn't teach you how to become a truck driver. More on this later.
  2. Sign a contract for a (mega) carrier for 1 year. They usually offer an in-house CDL training program and they pay YOU to attend. After you pass your CDL test, you have to stay with that carrier for 1 year. If you decide to leave, you have to pay them X amount of dollars, usually the equivalent of attending CDL school.

If you decide to go for #1, you have the freedom to pick and choose the company you want to work for. If you go for #2, you are stuck with your carrier for 1 year.

I'd suggest paying for a CDL school for 2 reasons.

  1. You can pick and choose your company. That freedom and peace of mind is invaluable.
  2. You will make more money. You can double or triple your pay after 3, 6 or 9 months of experience.

But beware. CDL school doesn't teach you how to become a truck driver. That is why, after you get your CDL, you join a big enough carrier that offers in-house training, orientation and mentorship. Stick with them for 3 months then reevaluate your options. Reevaluate every 3 months until you reach 1 year of EXP, the sweet spot. Most high paying truck driving jobs require 1 year of exp.

Now let's talk numbers.

With:

  • 0-5 months of experience: 35k to 50k gross pay
  • 6 to 11 months: 50k to 70k
  • 12 months or more: 70k to 100k+

My personal exp. Dead-end job making $17/hr. Quit and went to a local CDL school. Got my CDL one month later. Got hired with a mega carrier with 0 experience. 5 weeks of orientation/training. Stayed with them for 6 months. About $1,000 weekly gross working 40 to 55 hours a week.

Joined a medium-size company with 6 months of exp. About $1,500 weekly gross working 40 to 55 hours a week. Left 6 months later due to poor management and schedule.

Joined my current company. Also medium size. About $1700 weekly gross working 40 hours a week. Excellent schedule and management. Later this year we are getting a COLA raise and a standard raise.

Becoming a truck driver also has a hidden benefit that almost no other career has. If you are up for it, you can live in your truck and not have to pay rent/utilities, potentially saving you thousands of dollars per year. Big truck terminals and truck stops have all the basic amenities you need (shower, laundry, etc). And modern trucks can be equipped with a fridge, tv, microwave, etc.

In short:

Pros

  • Very high demand. Until we invent teleportation, there will always be a need to physically move stuff from point A to point B.
  • Low entry barrier, both cost and experience.
  • Good ROI. Pay 5k for schooling, make 80k by the end of your first year.
  • Variety. You can be a local driver and be home every day. Or hit the road and be out for weeks at a time. You can haul paper, fuel, auto parts, groceries, livestock, metal, wood, etc, etc etc. Find what you like. I hated my first 2 jobs until I found my current one where I'm happy at.

Cons

  • Long hours on 90% of jobs out there. 50+ hours a week is standard.
  • Earning ceiling of about 100k to 120k unless you become an owner/operator and scale your business.
  • High stress. Traffic, delays, equipment failure, isolation if you choose to be away from home for weeks.
  • You need a clean record. Zero tolerance on substance abuse, even while driving your personal vehicle. Reckless driving is also a big no-no.
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I am driving yes. I started at $30, which at the time was still significantly more (almost 2x) than the average. We’re all getting our annual raise in August for nice $40.50 an hour. We never load our trucks, we show up to work and get on the road.

We’re more positive because we have salaries that are actually above the cost of living. We can buy pay off homes a lot quicker than most people who spend 30+ years doing.

We have a union, which negotiates our contracts and gives us our wages. Our benefits pay for literally almost everything 100%. Yea fuck fedex lol.

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Yeah, I really regret not putting more thought into it when WMT disappointed first. A day late cost some bigger gains but I think there’s still a good chunk of meat on the bone here.

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When I tried modeling SHOP, I was immediately put off by the observation that they have failed to grow organic operating margin whatsoever, and all profitability was coming from a gross abuse of non-gaap reconciliation of stock based compensation and selling equity at a massive premium. Management has been complacent and reliant on aggressive top-line growth while failing to address the core issues of their business model or reinvesting in the company.

Another reason you get the issue you're mentioning with DCFs is due to whats known as the beta anomaly, in which the risk-reward is inversely skewed on the cost of capital as a lower beta is rewarded with higher upside than a higher beta, despite the lack of risk implied in said beta.

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Yup. The craziest thing is that houses aren't even worth owning at listed prices. They only cost about $100,000 to build and then they get listed for half a million. The price isn't justifiable and you'll get stuck with paying off the mortgage after your get foreclosed on if another event causes job instability. The maintenence on a horse alone is another $100,000, so you're essentially paying a small fortune just to live in a super stressful situation.

Given the current climate, I wouldn't pay more than $150,000 for a decent house. The risk alone beyond that just isn't worth it.

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I am very sorry for your loss. A lot of people have given you good, realistic advice. Im sure a year off would have been nice but if you want to keepyour home, and your low cost of living compared to pretty much anywhere else, you will have to get a job ASAP. You also need to make sure when the estate is looked at, that it is actualy going to you. If not, then you will need to start looking at a new place to live. Did your mom have a will?

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Yes, I've read suggestions that yearly maintenance cost should be calculated at 1-3% of purchase price or $1.00 per square foot, depending on how large the house is.

We sold our condo after HOA assessments began increasing by 10%/year (to backfill reserves). Not a situation we could have anticipated, as the reserves were drained by a building-wide plumbing project. But the net effect was that we needed to lower our housing cost to continue being FI. Still miss that condo...

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My main focus is COST and NVDA. COST will have to have a impressive earnings to climb back up from the huge drop last week. I hope my COST calls print after their earnings

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Is this a reasonable plan or am I overthinking this?

Background: (tl;dr we're younger, aggressive allocation, high investment rate)

Vaguely new to investing beyond "set up a monthly auto invest in a handful of funds and then close the browser".

My wife and I started aggressively contributing to our employer retirement accounts at the beginning of last year when a) she got several substantial raises and b) I did the math that we weren't saving enough for the retirement that we wanted and when we want it without a laughably high return rate. We now have it at a level that should be sufficient (~18.5% of our combined income, ~20% when employer match is factored in).

Most news I'm seeing as fairly doom and gloom about the market in its current state, expecting additional drops. I've seen a few articles saying maybe there won't be much more, but those seem to be becoming less often. I don't have the knowledge to make my own assessments or predictions, so I have to rely on the analysis of others.

We have fairly aggressive investments (mostly a mix of S&P index + growth funds (total ~70%, ~20% ESG funds, ~10% bonds) since we have time for things to smooth over (in our early 30s) we decided that a heavy tilt towards stocks is acceptable/reasonable. So, we've been hit pretty hard.

Question:

Is it reasonable to take some of these out if we were to plan to dollar cost average put them back in the market, say... weekly over the next ~3-6 months until it's all back in (no pause between taking out and DCA, not trying to time anything unless I misunderstand that term)? In my mind, this seems like a good plan if it's expected that the market continues with it's current trajectory as it would get potentially get us more shares than just holding on. Weekly seems a good frequency, haven't put much thought into how long until it'd be 100% back in as I am still trying to understand if I'm thinking about this incorrectly first.

We're also planning to increase our contribution level for a bit while the market is down to take advantage of that. It wouldn't be a permanent increase as it would take it to unsustainable levels, but we've had some recent life things happen that have allowed our safety net to grow well beyond what we truly need it be.

Right now we're just holding on to everything (potentially rebalancing soon as things have shifted a little more than they should). I suspect the advice will be to do just that, but figured I'd ask. Perhaps I should just close my browser and stop looking?

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Have considered it but if I move my employer will adjust my salary down to match the area cost of living.

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Yeah if you want a liveable van it will cost what a house should actually cost.

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Don’t listen to this guy lol people who are debt averse make no sense to me. Debt can be used as a tool to make you more money in the long run, you just have to use it responsibly.

Used car prices are insane and finding a decent 10 year old car is still going to cost you a lot. The safety features added to the most recent models are well worth the price increase and most of the new base model cars come with more features than old GT models. I have a 2017 mazda 3 I bought new that feels so much more comfortable than the 2013 my mom drives. The 2022’s are even better and feel like luxury cars now and aren’t that much more expensive than my car if you bought it used. You also run the risk of getting a car with tons of problems that aren’t under warranty any longer. I’d buy new solely for the price of mind.

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>Add in the fact that most business owners were successful because of the cheap cost of capital and not because of any innovation or talent.

Do you have a source for this claim?

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Thinking the housing market crash is the solution to the rising inflation cost of the housing market, and will makes these house cost so much less - is sadly a-historical without anything to guarantee without a certainty of a doubt that they will go to those that need them.

Sadly, 2008 didn’t happen here on r/wallstreetbets. Unless, they want the collapse for the same reason I’m alluding to 🤔 who knows. They seem nice though.

Sigh.

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Whatever my phone cost. watches are stupid wtf

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I agree but it takes a lot of money and time to go out on your own. A decent truck and trailer will cost you around 200k. Now you have to deal with IFTA tax, road use tax, permits, maintenence reports, etc. Plus, you have to find your own loads, bill the brokers, work on the truck and trailer (you are now responsible for the repairs, oil changes, tires, etc.) Driving is the easy part of being a truckdriver.

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Was it sold for a gain or loss when you dumped it before earnings? If it was a gain, it's not a wash sale. If you bought back in after selling for a net gain, all you did was raise your cost basis, by a lot.

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Buying used can definitely lower the initial cost. The big cost like you mention is time commitment. While cutting the grass yourself is rewarding, it does get tough to fit in with kids’ activities and having free weekends. But, once I factored in the annual cost of doing it myself, then the cost to pay someone didn’t feel as bad. When the kids are older, I may reconsider and do it myself though.

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And we're saying it's opportunity cost and purchasing power risk. Dollar cost averaging is only beneficial when stock prices are going to go down.

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Moving closer to work? Would that cost your more than 2500?

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Trades are a great way to make a really good income, with relatively little upfront investment time wise in education and training (at least to start, I'm not suggesting it doesn't take time and effort to master the trade crafts... I know it does)

HVAC is always in silly high demand. In my area, you can't beg people to come look at your furnace, or central air unit. Last winter there was a big shortage of fuel tanker drivers, just couldn't find enough to deliver heating fuel to homes.

Plumbing is another big one. Plumbers are always in demand.

Electricians make bank, especially once they get some time in.

When I was getting my pergo laminate hardwood flooring installed 2 years ago, I couldn't find anyone to save my life. When I did finally get a guy to call me / actually show up... it was $5000 for about 6 days of work for 2 guys.

My central air and natural gas furnace cost me between $3500 and $4000 for the installation. Again... about 3 to 3.5 days work for 2 guys.

If your interested in the health care field, LPN's and RN's are in stupid high demand. LPN's are making upwards of $40 an hour, agency, no travel. I know my wife and sister in law are both LPN's and make that.

I'd say figure out which of the trades you want to go into, enroll in a vocational program and then start applying for jobs. It wouldn't even hurt to apply to dozen or so jobs up front, and see if any will offer on the job training or pay for your training / education if you sign a commitment to work for them for so long (verify starting pay, and raises and that kind of thing before you sign anything like that). Even if your not working while your training, and use a decent chunk of the 30K you have saved... you'll likely easily double your currently salary or better.

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It's not same vaccine based on what I read. Also it's unexpectedly popping out at different parts of the world who didn't even travel to Africa. Also it spreads through airborne just like Covid. I'm not sure where did you read that it's not like Covid. Even for people who won't die from it, it would be painful to go through. I'll avoid at all cost.

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If your mortgage is only $300/mo, then what are the other bills that are adding up to your $2000/mo cost of living estimation? Can you list them out? Something doesn’t seem like it’s adding up

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Ah…the old rent vs own.

Never a definitive answer…

But, the “own” bulls never really factor-in TCO:

  • Insurance
  • Maintenance
  • Taxes…the real killer

Own a $500K house for 20 years and your actual cost could be $1M.

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It's on sale if the fundamentals (of the specific stock) still justify a higher price than they are at today, and the risk of a bad outcome hasn't balooned to the point that it needs to be priced in. Otherwise the stocks are just worth less - half price on broken electronics isn't a sale.

For non-profit growth, higher interest rates, higher cost of sales, lower demand, no access or worse priced access to equity funding are deadly.

For instance, say you have a small tech company that is still developing its killer product or effectively buying market share. If it can survive to the other side of any rescession, it will eat the world, but there is a good chance it will just run out of money, and get swallowed for pennies by some tech major or fizzle to nothing.

That possibility was always there - but if the future value of the stock is 100$ and what was a 10% chance is now a 50% chance, the fair value of the stock has gone from $90 to $50. If you invest in 10 stocks like this on those terms, you are getting the money you strted with, even if half of them survive to go back up to $100.

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Trading212 will make back the cost of whatever stock they "give" you. You cannot sell when you want, you are limited to market orders which they might not fill within even 24 hours. I saw this happen to someone, it was unbelievable. Stay Away.

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Is the housing cost adjusted for inflation? Just curious

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The pure stupidity in your comments are hurting my brain. I’m not sure you understand inflation, nor simple math. Please take it somewhere else as to not mislead others. If you take a price of an asset from 1992 and compare it to the price today, you’ve already made the inflation adjustment. Inflation is not a fee, nor a cost, it is merely a change in the value of the dollar due to supply and demand.

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If you have credit cards you already have lines of credit. Though using them for cash withdrawals is very expensive and something I would not recommend.

I personally would not open up a cash line of credit unless I specifically needed it for a high-cost project.

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The biggest issue, is not even the supply chain, or QE/QT along with rate hikes, just wait until the market finally catches up with the notion that mortgage rates are unsustainable for anyone that is considered middle/lower class and the significant amount of supply that is now in perpetual motion. Give it 6-8 weeks and normal people that don't realize what is going on, will see what is going on on mainstream news. That's typically when the biggest hurt comes. June - Oct has some nasty potential side affects from everything all coming together and falling apart. Most of the "earnings" have been borderline met, but wait until this last 2 months + next 2 months show up in Q3 & Q4 earnings lol. I guess dollar cost average right into the next recession =/

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I was 51 in 2008. I kept my dollar cost average contributions steadily going. Left my money where it was.

In March of 2020 the stock portion of my portfolio became a little low. I re balanced and sold bond funds to buy stock funds.

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People say this as if you can just have the same job and salary if you move to the middle of fucking nowhere. Even with work from home situations, that's still largely unfeasible. Cheaper cost of living areas have lower salaries and job opportunities. So unless you're talking about a retirement plan, the whole "just don't live in tech areas" when talking to people who likely work in tech (just as an example) is pretty nonsensical.

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🤣

What kind of person would make a short sighted mistake with their finances?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/14/adjustable-rate-mortgages-are-becoming-more-popular-with-buyers/

Here is the kicker we aren't talking about. The average cost of ARMs vs fixed.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-average-adjustable-rate-mortgage-is-nearly-700000-heres-what-that-tells-us-2019-02-04

https://www.financialsamurai.com/adjustable-rate-mortgages-as-a-percentage-of-total-loans/

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> Side note: > When talking about paying off the house, remember you're only paying off the principal+interest payment. Property taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, maintenance still exists. That should be under your normal annual expense to budget for.

This is a critical part I think a lot of people ignore when they think about a paid off mortgage. They'll say oh my payment is 2k/month then it would be nothing! Nah, it still can be 500+ easily, definitely less, but there will never be 0 cost.

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And they're not going back to beepers either. Adapt or perish. Builders aren't building a starter home. They can't afford to. Half the cost of any home is the lot. Desirable areas will have fewer and fewer single family homes and more multifamily units. Many world cities have been like that for decades,

In the 80's I remember seeing a picture of the 15 million dollar home of the chairman of the board of Sony Corporation. A 3 bedroom/2 bath 1400 square foot home you could have bought in States almost anywhere for less than $100,000. Hell the house we lived in was nicer than his.

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Lol I am so over dumb dumbs quoting the “Buffet sold his aviation stocks at the 2020 dip”. Yeah, Berkshire did, and used the cash to buy stuff that rebounded harder than the aviation stocks.

There’s always an opportunity cost to holding at the bottom. If you think something presents a better opportunity, take it!

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When we had to pay for our buildings laundry I'd send mine out. I discovered the cost difference between paying for my washer/ dry cycle + detergent wasnt far off from sending it out. Plus they did a much better job at cleaning and folding. Now we own our washer and dryer in a home.

When we get a bit more excess income that's the first thing I'm bringing back.

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Cost to borrow 11% according to iBorrowDesk

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If he develops a reputation similar to Trump, or even Bill Gates it will cost significant sales loss and I would assume shareholder lawsuits based on Elons tweets and behavior.

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Shockingly true, I've met someone who made $250,000 per year and believed they couldn't retire before the next ten years. They were already in their mid-fifties. I literally cannot justify that math in our low cost of living area.

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It's incredibly difficult to predict. That's why even experts have no idea what the fuck is going to happen.

If you go back to the fall, general consensus was that there was no slowing down in sight for tech stocks and the broader stock market. Even the bear case only predicted a minor correction based on incremental increases in interest rates to counter what at the time was viewed as only minor inflation issues. Now that tech has lost up to 70% and the market itself has pulled back considerably, suddenly all the "experts" only talk about how obvious it was and how everyone should have seen it coming. That's how this stuff always works.

You can sit there can confidently say the housing market it easy to predict. But absent any actual research/analysis to back it up, all you're doing is playing roulette and putting your money on red instead of black. If it turns up red, great, now you can act like you always knew it would be red and it should have been obvious. If it turns up black, you just don't ever bring up that you bet on red and it's unlikely anyone will call you out on it.

Market predictions are no different. There's zero stakes in making a baseless prediction, and so that's what people do. But the reality is these are incredibly difficult to predict times we're living in. We have inflation, supply chain issues, increasing interest rests, a market that's been on fire to the tune of 40% increases in two years, global pandemics, international conflicts/destabilization, housing shortages, stay at home workers, wages that aren't tracking cost increases, a possible recession, and who knows what else coming down the pike. The housing market is definitely going to slow its (absurd) rate of increase. That much is obvious. But beyond that? Who the fuck knows. My bet is that it will largely level out for a few years before having a notable correction (likely once the supply chain catches up). But it could also crash just as easily.

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The prices have nothing (or to be more correct, might have nothing) to do with actual value. If inflation went up, market went up, salaries went up… Even if houses cost more dollars they might (and note that I am just saying they might) be relatively cheaper.

To be honest, and I know some people are gonna hate me for saying this. But I find myself being absurdly surprised by some friends and acquaintances’ comments about “not being able to buy a house”. It is the old avocado toast thing but damn if it isn’t true some times. I swear I can count more than 10 known couples in their 30s that make together more than 150k a year that have told me they can’t afford a house. Almost all of those have WAY bigger cars than what they need. None of those couples have spent a year without making at least 2 trips worth more than 2 thousand dollars a person, some much more than that. Several of those have no college debt already. Several of those couples have gone to 4 thousand dollar trips to Disney this year. Almost all of them have a dog, some more and spend around 5k a year on dogs if you sum up everything. Most of those couples eat out EVERY SINGLE DAY.

The kind of people that could afford a house 10 or 8 years ago can still afford a house. It’s still about how much reasonable sacrifice they are willing to make.

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well if you read more carefully, those aren't strikes, those are the current cost of ATM strikes for puts. Just to give myself and others a quick estimate of how much cash/margin you'll need per contract.

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You do understand that COST has a unique business model and they make profit from memberships and 3rd party deals? I wouldn't bet against it here. There are outliers, like TJX last week and I believe COST will be one this week

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Cost calls may be the move boys. Unlike wmt and tgt, Costco doesn’t depend on China to the extent those do.

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I don't have any idea how mortgages work in Europe, but assuming that means you pay an annual rate of 6.96%? If you are asking a serious question and want a serious answer, it depends on your mortgage term, but no, generally speaking, that would not be a good mortgage rate in the US.

In the current market, 7% would be bad; 18 months ago 7% annually would have been horrendous.

I have a 15 year loan for $275k paying a fixed annual rate of 2.25% (0.19% per month). A 30 year when I refinanced in late 2020 probably would have cost me 3%.

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Later in this thread you argue that this will crush real estate investors and force them to sell, lowering the cost of housing. Once they’ve sold, as you predict they will, who pays those missing taxes?

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I’ll be watching for +/- .55% swings tomorrow and a relatively flat finish. Tuesday I’m looking for a drill down to 380 with a hesitation at the 380 resistance before blowing through. The rest of the week continues red as earnings miss sighting the same broken record, increasing labor & material cost boxed in by a constricting consumer base. Spy at 360-368 by close Friday and apple making a big leg down this week.

Could be wrong and I’ll be playing light. Good luck!

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Absolutely the higher housing cost and lower interest rate. I did the math and bought Jan, 2021. Locked in at 2.62%. It was cheaper payment and cheaper if I pay through all 360 months.

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How much more would it cost from the 18?

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If you owe $290K, you owe $290K. Are you basically asking if you should get your Dad to essentially give you a $40K interest free loan? Because yeah, that’d obviously save you (and cost him) money.

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If you owe $290K, you owe $290K. Are you basically asking if you should get your Dad to essentially give you a $40K interest free loan? Because yeah, that’s obviously save you (and cost him) money.

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I see what you’re saying

That makes me wonder why people say things like health care being paid by tax dollars and reducing the cost of education are socialist. I don’t see anything related to the points you mentioned (which are valid), other than maybe the ideas aren’t directly related to compensation for services rendered because some people may not be contributing to taxes yet they might still reap the benefits

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So for them to keep the price down or try to drive the price to under a dollar it would cost them nothing for more than a year? Is that what you’re trying to tell me. The SEC report on GameStop said the January run up consisted of very little covering and was caused by retails interest in the stock. Over half of the daily volume of gme is done through dark pools and that’s all normal right?

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This must depend on where you're located. $20 is less than a dozen cookies would cost where I live. The cupcake shops charge about $5 for a single cupcake and they do ok. I'd be curious where you live that people weren't willing to pay that for a dozen "artisan" cookies.

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But there is very finite amount of single family homes. Not enough are being constructed at a desirable cost. There is a shortage. So demand will remain high.

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Your phrasing is unclear. Do you say 8% more expensive or double the cost plus another 8%?

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That won’t change the “average mortgage cost of average us house”.

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The assumption is that this person is doing the chore already, and wants to know if paying someone else to do it is “worth it”

I’m not suggesting to not grocery shop or clean your house, I’m suggesting that paying someone to do it for you is not a financially beneficial move unless somehow that frees up money-making time for you, such that you can make even more than paying the person would cost.

If it allows you to spend more time with your family, that is great but it is a luxury, not a financial investment.

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I’m taking it at face value. It’s not new mortgages, or cost of a mortgage.

And thus it’s all utter bullshit.

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Yeah I feel like maybe the chart is just poorly labeled? For it to be the actual average mortgage cost I feel like the numbers have to be bull - it’s only believable as the cost to mortgage an average US home, but you’re right, that’s now how it’s labeled. Or the chart is bs, one or the other

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Take the cost of capital and compare it to other options, including short term loans.

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Lol its not over just say you are not willing to do that and were thinking elsewhere. Arizona isnt near the cost of living as Cali.

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Good points and we absolutely are pushing to be more online oriented I assume using fewer stores is to get people to order online but then when I show up and tell them their order was built wrong I sell them all the extra crap they need for their crappy tv. I will say as well we get a discount that’s at cost and you’d be amazed how much everything is marked up minus like Apple crap. I was talking to my big boss the other day about gas costs as well and he said unless we hit $12 a gallon we wouldn’t be shut down in the field so that tells me sales are coming in hot and heavy. As far as COL areas they’re boomers most of the time imo. They want something they google it and they drive over then they get swept up in the excitement the salesperson spills. But I’m also an autist so what do I know

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There are two quotes (coincidentally from doctors’ investing blogs) which have stuck with me:

One from White Coat Investor: > When choosing an asset allocation, you are not only deciding what you think is most likely to happen, but also how sure you are that will happen. You must also consider the consequences of being wrong. I agree that stocks will probably outpace bonds during my investing career, but I’m not sure enough of that to put every investing dollar I have into stocks, especially given the consequences.

And another from Physician on FIRE: >Bonds are there as a safe haven and diversifier. If we experience a downturn worse than the Great Depression, I should have something left. I doubt that will happen, but I feel better having a small bond allocation than none at all.

I resonate with both of these sentiments. I believe stocks will outpace bonds in my investing lifetime but the world is unpredictable, and outlier examples like Japan 1989 are a warning that thing can go south for a very long time. I feel better with a small amount of bonds and the cost in returns if stocks do better is relatively minimal.

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Well, you said you can get a loan for it, so it's your choice. Having a stable cost for your shelter is good in a higher inflation environment. Or... keep renting and soon your rent is more than your piti.

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Been considering it a while and I think I'm gonna get some 3 month COST calls. High gas prices mean people will shop more in bulk/bigger trips. And BJs did well. And people will get memberships just for the famously cheaper gas (if available near them).

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Most of the Ivies have need based scholarships where you do not pay as much/any tuition if your family earns under a threshold. Columbia is $0 tuition for families under $150k. Still can have a boatload of debt with challenges in repaying if you go into the teacher school or the fine arts but if you go STEM, you can find some high paying careers if that's the desired outcome for spending huge on undergrad.

https://undergrad.admissions.columbia.edu/affordability/cost

There are more than a few far less selective schools that charge obscene tuition without that level of support or the outcomes of an ivy degree (they claim finaid which is mostly loans).

SMU is $80k/yr all in for undergrad. Not a bad school but not $320k good. Have actually had a couple absolute dumbasses work for me from that school. The rich kid syndrome entitlement syndrome was just unbearable.

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Sounds good to me. Also just looked it up. Said they've tripled in the last two months but that definitely would not account for a change in cost since ARMs are lower to begin with

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