VAW- Top 10 Holdings (49.02% of Total Assets)

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NameSymbol% AssetsLinde PLCLIN.L12.19%Sherwin-Williams CoSHW5.61%Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD5.13%Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX4.36%Ecolab IncECL4.26%Newmont CorpNEM4.09%Dow IncDOW3.79%DuPont de Nemours IncDD3.36%PPG Industries IncPPG3.24%International Flavors & Fragrances IncIFF2.99%

I wrote this comment last week. This goes against the point of my post but it's interesting data.

Let me give some examples of recent rallies from Fall (or summer) 2022 lows. Cherry-picked but my point is the rally is broad-based and in many instance, seeing huge run-ups. I might have made a typo or two.

Industrials:

• Boeing: +73%
• CAT: +54%
• DE: +34%
• Siemens AG (German industrial): + 63%
• BASF (European chemical company): +48%
• Arcellor Mittel (European steel company): +50%

Commodities:

• FCX (copper): +68%
• X (US steel): +50%

Financials:

• JPM: +35%
• ALLY: +32%
• TD: +12%
• C: +29%

Airlines:

• United Airlines: +32%
• Delta: +40%

Semiconductors:

• Micron (semiconductors): +24%
• AMD: +37%
• INTC: +23%

Restaurants:

• Chipotle: +28%
• SBUX: +52%

Pharma:

• Whole sector did well, so not even going to bother listing them.

Defense:

• Also soared but again not really so relevant since its Ukraine driven.

ETFs:

• AVUV (US small cap value): + 22%
• AVDV (ex-US developed small cap value): + 26%
• VGK (Europe): +32%
• VWO (emerging markets): + 21%
• Russell 2000 (US Small caps): +16%
• XBI (biotech): +28%

Thanks for sharing. I'll check it out! I've been hearing some bullish sentiment about Brazil lately, e.g., Petrobras and how the political uncertainty is a bit overstated, and about Brazilian banks being extremely cheap.

I was reading the earning call transcript for FCX and one of their risks was about political uncertainty in Peru (due to the recent attempted coup by former President Castillo and resulting protests) as well as in Chile with some constitutional changes.

I hear good things about Teck. I haven't entered yet, but I bought my first few shares of FCX last week. A bit late on FCX, but I see a promising 5 years ahead.

miners gang

FCX solid af

FCX on a tear.

BHP breaking out... that $70 ceiling has been years in the making.

Read FCX earnings release and then go buy some copper stocks.

FCX earnings out. I always find their analysis interesting regarding copper futures.

Basically, they still stay prices need to go higher to make investment in new mines. They also still see demand we'll out pacing supply until new mines are brought online.

Bullish on copper.

ABT 110p, APH 80c, Punked out on 200p's on BA, FCX 40p, NSC 240p lets see how f'd I am!

Tomorrow... BA gonna kill it, FCX gonna kill it, HES gonna kill it and GD gonna kill it... plus they're sending tanks to Ukraine.

ASML... not so sure about.

One reason why I'm bullish on US macro (but perhaps not as much as the stock market as a whole) is years of fiscal tailwinds from massive spending. Take a glance at what legislation has been passed:

• American Rescue Plan Act of 2021: $1.9 trillion stimulus legislation
• Chips Act (US): "The CHIPS Act directs $280 billion in spending over the next ten years. The majority—$200 billion—is for scientific R&D and commercialization. Some $52.7 billion is for semiconductor manufacturing, R&D, and workforce development, with another $24 billion worth of tax credits for chip production. There is $3 billion slated for programs aimed at leading-edge technology and wireless supply chains."
• Chips Act (Europe): To be passed, but 42B Euros
• Infrastructure Bill: "$1.2 trillion in spending, with $550 billion being newly authorized spending".
• Inflation Reduction Act: "The law, as passed, will raise $738 billion and authorize $391 billion in spending on energy and climate change, $238 billion in deficit reduction, three years of Affordable Care Act subsidies, prescription drug reform to lower prices, and tax reform"
• 10% increase in defense spending ($816.7 billion to DOD) on top of the various aid packages to Ukraine (which include spending on replenishing supplies)

All this spending is bullish for a few sectors. Construction. Commodities. Military defense.

In particular, take steel. Renewable energy and construction in general uses a massive amount of steel. What are the key components to make steel? Iron ore and metallurgical coal. The world is ramping up defense spending, including China. Ships, for example, require a massive amount of steel: China is going wild on ship-building. I keep seeing people mixing up thermal coal and met coal: you can't make steel in massive quantities (yet, scientists seem to be working on it) without coal mining.

Long $AMR, $FCX, $BTU, $UFPI (of my holdings), and probably $CAT, $BHP, $VALE, $WHC (Whitehaven coal), $ARCH. Long /u/_hiddenscout 's portfolio involving electrification.

Not much is on discount in my portfolio so I just added to my commodities: 3 shares each of BTU and FCX (copper). I had just started buying AMR but I'm already up 13%.

Let me give some examples of recent rallies from Fall (or summer) 2022 lows. Cherry-picked but my point is the rally is broad-based and in many instance, seeing huge run-ups. I might have made a typo or two.

Industrials:

• Boeing: +73%
• CAT: +54%
• DE: +34%
• Siemens AG (German industrial): + 63%
• BASF (European chemical company): +48%
• Arcellor Mittel (European steel company): +50%

Commodities:

• FCX (copper): +68%
• X (US steel): +50%

Financials:

• JPM: +35%
• ALLY: +32%
• TD: +12%
• C: +29%

Airlines:

• United Airlines: +32%
• Delta: +40%

Semiconductors:

• Micron (semiconductors): +24%
• AMD: +37%
• INTC: +23%

Restaurants:

• Chipotle: +28%
• SBUX: +52%

Pharma:

• Whole sector did well, so not even going to bother listing them.

Defense:

• Also soared but again not really so relevant since its Ukraine driven.

ETFs:

• AVUV (US small cap value): + 22%
• AVDV (ex-US developed small cap value): + 26%
• VGK (Europe): +32%
• VWO (emerging markets): + 21%
• Russell 2000 (US Small caps): +16%
• XBI (biotech): +28%

$FCX calls are the move

oil sector won 2022, stocks like OXY and XOM top performers

but small cap oil/energy stocks were +400% at some point

small cap are gonna outperform big caps in every mini bullrun, now think about the mining industry: everyone is focused on big cap gold/copper miners like FCX/RIO/BHP etc... actually extremely overbought

no one is looking for mid/small cap opportunities in the mining sector

Credit to u/KRIBZ

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-01-23

$BKR | Baker Hughes Holdings LLC: 5.82% | 2.41% | 8.85%

$LOGI | Logitech International SA: 8.06% | 14.95% | 9.17%

​

2023-01-24

$JNJ | Johnson and Johnson: 3.36% | 1.96% | 2.49%

$TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated: 4.28% | 2.24% | 4.93%

$DHR | Danaher Corporation: 4.07% | 7.55% | 5.9%

$GE | General Electric Company: 6.51% | 7.81% | 5.25%

$UNP | Union Pacific Corp: 4.44% | 7.9% | 2.9%

$LMT | Lockheed Martin Corp: 3.93% | 8.71% | 3.6%

$MSFT | Microsoft Corporation: 4.73% | 5.07% | 4.85%

$VZ | Verizon Communications Inc: 3.41% | 7.94% | 4.35%

$RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corporation: 3.27% | 7.4% | 3.3%

​

2023-01-25

$ASML | : 4.69% | 9.83% | 4.5%

$NOW | ServiceNow Inc: 8.06% | 6.8% | 7.88%

$FCX | Freeport McMoRan Inc: 9.07% | 6.51% | 5.59%

$NEE | NextEra Energy Inc: 3.03% | 3.2% | 6.7%

$CCI | Crown Castle International Corp: 3.36% | 5.17% | 6.07%

$TSLA | Tesla Inc: 6.98% | 3.31% | 9.59%

$LRCX | Lam Research Corporation: 5.65% | 10.45% | 5.87%

$LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp: 5.46% | 7.16% | 6.8%

$USB | US Bancorp: 3.68% | 4.29% | 3.77%

$IBM | International Business Machines Corp: 5.65% | 4.05% | 4.89%

$T | AT&T Inc: 4.48% | 8.88% | 4.68%

$BA | Boeing Co: 5.47% | 9.99% | 4.91%

​

2023-01-26

$SAP | : 3.62% | 3.56% | 7.0%

$MA | MasterCard Incorporated: 4.36% | 2.7% | 3.97%

$V | Visa Inc: 3.97% | 1.33% | 4.13%

$LHX | L3Harris Technologies Inc: 4.56% | 1.66% | 6.74%

$MMC | Marsh and McLennan Companies Inc: 3.75% | 2.28% | 3.81%

$NOC | Northrop Grumman Corp Holding Co: 4.41% | 3.43% | 3.9%

$INTC | Intel Corporation: 7.71% | 11.83% | 7.94%

$BX | Blackstone Group Inc: 4.99% | 4.49% | 5.73%

$DOW | Dow Inc: 4.83% | 5.63% | 3.2%

$CMCSA | Comcast Corporation: 4.37% | 10.6% | 4.9%

​

2023-01-27

$AXP | American Express Company: 4.49% | 10.26% | 6.65%

$CVX | Chevron Corporation: 4.45% | 4.14% | 4.59%

$CL | Colgate Palmolive Co: 3.46% | 2.22% | 4.6%

$HCA | HCA Healthcare Inc: 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.03%

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-01-23

$BKR | Baker Hughes Holdings LLC: 5.82% | 2.41% | 8.85%

$LOGI | Logitech International SA: 8.06% | 14.95% | 9.17%

​

2023-01-24

$JNJ | Johnson and Johnson: 3.36% | 1.96% | 2.49%

$TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated: 4.28% | 2.24% | 4.93%

$DHR | Danaher Corporation: 4.07% | 7.55% | 5.9%

\$GE | General Electric Company: 6.51% | 7.81% | 5.25%

$UNP | Union Pacific Corp: 4.44% | 7.9% | 2.9%

$LMT | Lockheed Martin Corp: 3.93% | 8.71% | 3.6%

$MSFT | Microsoft Corporation: 4.73% | 5.07% | 4.85%

$VZ | Verizon Communications Inc: 3.41% | 7.94% | 4.35%

$RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corporation: 3.27% | 7.4% | 3.3%

​

2023-01-25

$ASML | : 4.69% | 9.83% | 4.5%

$NOW | ServiceNow Inc: 8.06% | 6.8% | 7.88%

$FCX | Freeport McMoRan Inc: 9.07% | 6.51% | 5.59%

$NEE | NextEra Energy Inc: 3.03% | 3.2% | 6.7%

$CCI | Crown Castle International Corp: 3.36% | 5.17% | 6.07%

$TSLA | Tesla Inc: 6.98% | 3.31% | 9.59%

$LRCX | Lam Research Corporation: 5.65% | 10.45% | 5.87%

$LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp: 5.46% | 7.16% | 6.8%

$USB | US Bancorp: 3.68% | 4.29% | 3.77%

$IBM | International Business Machines Corp: 5.65% | 4.05% | 4.89%

$T | AT&T Inc: 4.48% | 8.88% | 4.68%

$BA | Boeing Co: 5.47% | 9.99% | 4.91%

​

2023-01-26

$SAP | : 3.62% | 3.56% | 7.0%

$MA | MasterCard Incorporated: 4.36% | 2.7% | 3.97%

$V | Visa Inc: 3.97% | 1.33% | 4.13%

$LHX | L3Harris Technologies Inc: 4.56% | 1.66% | 6.74%

$MMC | Marsh and McLennan Companies Inc: 3.75% | 2.28% | 3.81%

$NOC | Northrop Grumman Corp Holding Co: 4.41% | 3.43% | 3.9%

$INTC | Intel Corporation: 7.71% | 11.83% | 7.94%

$BX | Blackstone Group Inc: 4.99% | 4.49% | 5.73%

$DOW | Dow Inc: 4.83% | 5.63% | 3.2%

$CMCSA | Comcast Corporation: 4.37% | 10.6% | 4.9%

​

2023-01-27

$AXP | American Express Company: 4.49% | 10.26% | 6.65%

$CVX | Chevron Corporation: 4.45% | 4.14% | 4.59%

$CL | Colgate Palmolive Co: 3.46% | 2.22% | 4.6%

$HCA | HCA Healthcare Inc: 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.03%

FCX, BHP, TECK and a cdn company called First Quantum FM.to

Protests in Peru gonna fuck with copper supply... BB says up to 2% of the global supply.

Copper miners gonna rip!

BHP, FCX, SCCO!

Today I bought a little bit of GOOG, BTU (coal), FCX (copper), along side my index funds. I'm definitely very late on FCX but long term very bullish on copper. Just nibbling for now even though prices are near ATH. Copper could go wildly up or down in the short term.

The more I read about the bear cases of BTU, the more I realize how much misinformation there is out there.

Critique: Thermal coal prices are at sky high levels and will come down, hurting BTU.

Response: Spot prices are very misleading, as BTU got its past year of record cash flows at much lower, locked in prices. Even if coal prices come down substantially (40, 50%), BTU's 2023 cash flows are already locked in (a few months back) at higher prices than before. So a deteriorating coal market would still see BTU thriving.

Critique: Natural gas prices in the West are cooling, making thermal coal less competitive.

Response: Most of BTU's thermal coal market is going to North Asia from Australia, and this has a lot less to do with bearish trends in Europe/US natural gas markets. China/India are ramping up coal fired power plants this decade, China especially so before its climate commitments start to kick in. China recently lifted import bans on coal from Australia, where BTU has operations.

Other points:

• From Twitter: "$BTU has $2.0B ($12.5 / share) of unrestricted cash (rn, Dec 31) on a 3.7B market cap and is run-rating at $500M+ of FCF / quarter for the rest of ’23."
• Also from Twitter: "BTU has $3.8B and retains $1B as operating cash." (Jan 7th)
• Cheaper crude/diesel benefits the company since it consumes a lot of diesel in its operations ($10 fall in crude = $27 million in savings)
• Met coal markets benefits from China reopening

For context the company currently trades around $28 a share and has a market cap of $4B. So it has nearly as much cash as its total market cap. Once it is released from its shackles (debt covenants put in place after near bankruptcy in 2020), likely this quarter due to its successful deleveraging, expecting a mountain of share buybacks and dividends. Unless it does something stupid like a big acquisition.

Who to follow on Twitter for more DD? @tradedollarnut, @8750Capital, and Matt Warder.

FCX, but now is overbought

what are you talking about

FCX is up +70% in 70 days

Let's consider the possibility, that maybe millennials might be wrong. And there is a possibility that this time isn't different. If you don't know what you are doing you are buying bonds.

However if you think this time is different you are BTFD in $AMZN. $AAPL, $TSLA. If you think that cycles repeat themselves you are buying $FCX, $XOM, and $GOLD.

One of these 2 investors is up over the last 52 weeks. Can you guess which?

Yeah if you are buying Coca-Cola here you might be buying the top. If you are buying $FCX, $GOLD, or $XOM you might be buying a stock in the 3rd inning of a blowout to the upside.

My 2 cents

I finally went in and entered some commodity positions just for fun: Bought a share of AMR (coal), 9 shares of BTU (coal), 2 shares of FCX (copper) in my Roth. Definitely missed out on the China trade but this will have a lot more to go in my view. BTU is a bet on management not doing something stupid in the near future.

These Miners are making sick moves... FCX, GOLD, BHP, TECK, AA, LUNMF.

Don't think it stops anytime soon either.

Ghyna reopening and USD cratering.

how cum no one has posted DD on FCX shit is up 20% in 5 day fuck

FCX and Copper for the win!

I like them for companies you bought into that go on runs and become overpriced. Like ALB last year for me. Bought in at 200 happily, when it started steamrolling past 300 I decided it was overpriced and set stop loss then it triggered and sold on the way back down to 215 then I bought in again. After the last few days I set a stop loss for FCX as well.

I’m getting the first signal that SPY might be reversing and going down. On days like this, I watch for CAT to start going down as a signal that SPY might be next. Now I’ll watch FCX also to see if copper is going down too.

Fertilizer stocks / prices have been getting destroyed recently though. Is this something you anticipated, and does this leave your investment thesis into MOS unchanged?

I am definitely very keen into commodities right now. My positions:

• $XOM (up 34%, not adding and haven't been. 2% of portfolio)
• $PSCE (-2.5%. I add every now and then, just shy of 2%. This is small cap energy ETF). Extremely cheap valuations relative to $XLE.

What I am interested in:

• $FCX. Very bullish on copper, more so than oil. I'm just waiting for the right entry point but worry I will miss it.
• Coal stocks. Most interested in $AMR and $BTU, the cheapest of the bunch. Whitehaven coal also caught my eye, as they should benefit from China importing from Australia after relaxing the rules. BTU should have its debt covenents lifted soon and unleash shareholder returns hopefully. And AMR is just very cheap and already doing heavy buybacks.
• Steel: I'm less familiar with this part of the market... I've heard good things about X, but really am not sure going into a global slowdown is the right time to buy steel.
• Aluminum: Alcoa caught my eye but the market seems too volatile for me. China dumping the market and it seems supply can come online very quickly.
• Same story with Lithium, supply coming online quickly.

So really what I would add to if at all are: FCX, and one of BTU or AMR this year.

That's why you need to diversify into the commodity stocks. As I mentioned above I like $GOLD, $CLF, $FCX, and $MOS over the $XLE stocks right now at current valuations.

Anytime you are looking at any commodity stock/company, whether it is Crude Oil, Coal, or Gold; price matters more than volume. The price of the commodity the company drills/mines/produces will move the stock and company's profitability higher than the quantity of the commodity drilled/mined/or produced.

$FCX makes way more money on the price of copper being up by 10% than their mining production being up 10%. Just look at all the $XLE stocks the last 2 years. Exxon didn't increase it's market cap by increasing production. It was the increase in the price of crude oil.

Now I agree with you on the stocks P/E's looking low after the stocks are coming off ATH's in quarterly/yearly earnings. But you have to look beyond 1-3 years. Where is a company like $IPI or $AG, or $VALE trading at compared to 2, 5, or 10 years ago? Some of these stocks are trading at levels lower than 2017 when the commodity in question was trading at 50% discount to today's commodity futures price.

I haven't seen a single topic about US mining stocks

FCX is up 52% from 6m lows and it still has amazing financial rateos, copper and gold about to skyrocket this year and that company has 18% profit margin

oil stocks have 9% profit margin on average and see what happened

Got Leaps in BA, FCX, NU and EEM.

Up on 2/4 so far...

I don’t know about “best”, but I imagine FCX or RIO are decent options.

FCX, Meta, SBUX, PSCE

Copper gang!! Sold FCX after holding for years.

Am I getting too greedy hoping $MU falls to pandemic lows of $42-$43 before opening a position? I own no tech stocks, but Micron always seemed interesting to me in a commodity type of way. Like chip fab could be considered the new copper miners like $FCX.

Or $TSM around $45-48? Maybe diversify and buy both $TSM and $MU?

I'll have to check out WIRE.

I have LUN.to, BHP, TECK and FCX Leaps as my copper plays. I'd look into CO and ZN as well... used a lot in batteries as is graphene.

Around 150 lbs of CU in a Tesla and who knows how much in a windmill.

A couple things. $GOLD and the other $GDX stocks are not Gold. They are very volatile stocks. If you want low risk than just buy $GLD or $PHYS which are physical Gold funds.

As for Barrick, it is my largest stock holding, as I believe that we are in a very similar market compared to 2001-2007 and 2009-2012. Gold outperformed the S&P in these time periods and the $GDX stocks have the potential to 2-3x the actual Gold price movements. Barrick in my opinion is the best run Gold miner.

The downside risks are IF Barrick $GOLD input costs exceed and rise faster than the appreciation value of physical Gold than their profitability suffers. But that risk in my opinion is why you want to own the big boy mining stocks ($GOLD or $NEM) since they are well capitalized compared to some of the smaller junior miners.

https://www.reddit.com/user/AP9384629344432/ mentioned Copper. I do like and own $FCX. I do agree copper is in a long term bull market, but if we are talking the near term, I would actually go with Silver which has been in an accumulation stage July 2022. $HL and $FSM are the 2 silver miners I like the most there. Hecla is prolly the safest silver miner as they are a US mining company.

If you enter these stocks thou, expect volatility. They can drop 10% or more in a week week after you buy and enter a position. The upside is they also move quite quickly to the upside as well. My tax lots in $FSM for example are up over 40% since August 2022.

Good Luck.

I think Gold will do really well in the next year and just watching the miners on Friday... money seems to be headed there.

I own BHP, LUN.to, TECK, FCX, VALE and ALB.

I think Copper is on a bull run for the next 5 years at least. EV and windmill demand will be insatiable. FCX, LUN and TECK are primarily copper but many of these miners have exposure to all precious metals because they are often found together.

My Lithium plays are ALB and looking at a risky but moon shot... LIACF.

Copper: FCX/Teck, but I've been waiting to get in.

Here's a lengthy report from Goldman Sachs on the bull case for copper: link. It's a lot more than EVs. Wind turbines, EVs, electric grid infrastructure, solar panels, construction sector, ...

The mining stocks are outperforming today. Stocks like $FCX, $FSM, and $GOLD just turned my port Green for the day. Copper, Silver, and Gold.

Quad witching tomorrow... one of the biggest expirations in years!

Funds positioning for the New Year... money been sloshed about. Because there are so few names that are going to hold up in a recession I think certain names could really rip tomorrow.

ALB, BA, CAT, DE, CRM, FCX, RTX

Thoughts on where big money is positioning for next year?

Miners: BHP, FCX, RIO, TECK, GOLD

Defence: BA

Retail: LULU

You want divvy players with strong cash flow and good balance sheets.

WM, LAND, FCX, BHP... are some that I've recently picked up.

>...unless, of course, it's the result of gambling luck, or someone making what they felt was a legitimate move but whose reasoning is actuality no more logical than a Vegas wager.

I am up close to 100%, but there is always a lot of luck to get those returns. Buffett beat the index handily over 55 year+ and he has 20% returns. Also I usually go to where most wouldn't buy in.

​

>If so, and you're one of those aforementioned, please share with us your future investment plans.

Lots of luck, but if someone wants to listen.
My ideas for what will perform in 2023 here:

• LATM oil stocks (like $PBR, $EC, $YPF)
• Coal stocks (like $BTU, $WHC)
• Diversified Metals/Energy like $GLEN $FCX $TRECK $VALE
• Japan
• Silver & Silver Miners
• Uzbekistan
• US Value (like Fairfax etc)

Copper? Yields? FCX?

Watching: BJ- BJs wholesale. Similar business to Costco, but at much better valuation. They got way over leveraged a few years ago, but are paying it down and expanding into new markets. Interesting below $66.

KNSL- Kinsale capital. Niche insurance provider expanding constantly. Interesting below $250.

OXM- oxford. Maker of Tommy Bahama and a few other brands. Upper class clientele and and interesting niche as beach and leisure is big. Trading very cheap compared to it's peers, interesting below $100.

DAR- darling ingredients. One of my largest holdings, but it's fallen off a cliff lately. They've made a lot of international acquisitions lately, which is a great move with the strong dollar. They also have another green diesel refinery opening next year, and with a diesel shortage, this is like minting cash. I'll add more below $60.

WAL- western alliance bank. Regional bank in a fast growing market. It's trading very cheap, and their average interest rate has started to creep up, which means more income. I think this trend will continue. Great deal below $55. There's a few other regional banks I'm eyeing as well, but no need to type them all out.

Copper/gold miners. FCX, SCCO, AEM, and for the adventurous IE. Falling dollar and under production of copper should make an interesting market for the next few years. I missed the last drawdown, but it's highest priority for me if it drops again.

BLNK Blink Charging Co. $14.47 per share

LAC Lithium Americas Corp. $23.99 per share

FCX not to be confused with FTX.. NO.. FCX for Freeport-McMoRan Inc $38.99 per share

They're the same.

I'm looking to play the EV boom.

I own AA, BHP, ALB, FCX, MP and CCJ but this is obviously uranium.

ALso looking into Vanadium right now... LGO.

GOLD is a good gold company. FCX is good for copper.

Gold & miners are 1/4 of my port. 1/4 in Oil & Gas stocks; 1/4 in commodity stocks like $FCX, $GGB, $CLF, and $MOS. 1/4 in manufacturing such as $DE, $TWI, $TITN, and $GT and the ilk.

I believe we will see a less global economy due to countries & economies becoming less reliant on cheap energy from Russia and cheap goods from China. This will create cost-push inflation vs the demand-pull inflation that everyone is betting on.

EM markets will do well. Especially Brazil. The EU may outperform the US after the war ends due to their more manufacturing economy vs the US tech heavy economy.

I maybe wrong, but this is where I see the highest reward and the lowest risk for the next 3-5 years. We have had 30 plus years of deflationary tailwinds due to a global economy. The last 2 years signal to me that peak globalization is now over. That is not good for tech stocks that are overly reliant on cheap microchips and components from China.

Anyone know why FCX is up 20% in the last month? Sold my shares a while back, but curious what's been going on as I keep seeing it pop up on the list of market movers.

Don't fuck around with AAPL Peeps. This Ghyna thing is a real millstone around their neck.

Look at materials in regards to Ghyna re-opening... ALB, SQM, BHP, TECK, FCX... any of thoe are much better plays... imho.

Don't forget copper, analyst's wrote that for any energy transition to occur will require a massive expansion of copper mining. FCX and Ivanhoe Mines are a couple large caps to take a look at.

beginning my hostile takeover of the mining industry. One share at a time. FCX CCs

Amzn Googl Schd Fcx JNJ

MSFT, AAPL, AMD, FCX, LEU

appreciate your thoughts. My main focus right now is to try to get good exposure to base metals. But it seems RIO and VALE are to concentrated in iron and FCX is too US centric. I like the idea of SBSW bc I think they see the need to branch out but their legacy mines are suffering from labor issues

SCCO , FCX are great copper and etc, mining companies and they have great dividends

buffett is late to the party

FCX is a buy

I was doing the majority of my port in options plays but this kangaroo market and vix nonesense has made things wack as fuck

Made alot trading FCX Freeport McMoran shares in the last week (5days)

Might only use 20% of port for options now lol. I was being kind of agressive making a shit ton when we drilled for like 3 weeks straight into the 52 week lows on spy.

Gonna try and hold onto some of those profits and go boomer for a little bit. Got some ETF's I really like and will try out passive for a little while to see if I'm bored to tears.

is FCX a good wheel stock?

Money gonna flow into commodities after this fake money fiasco...

Gold, silver and especially Copper.

BHP, FCX, TECK, VALE, AA all set to rip.

>There is still a fixed number of coins, right? This is still the underpin that holds it together I think. It never really mattered whose hands they were in, so whether they are hacked from FCX, or tied in an arbitrage trade, or just sitting in someone’s cold storage, they still have the same intrinsic value as they did last Saturday (whatever that means). Conversely however, it’s all of the other “misc” coins like FTT that got cross collateralized—those are the real weakness in the infrastructure, because THIS is what ultimately dilutes Bitcoin by allowing them to be exchanged for (and thus valued in parity with) BTC. What that means for BTC long term, it’s hard to say.

feel free to argue the monetary value of some databases and hash tables. at the end of the day, these securities is only worth what the next buyers are willing to pay for it. if ppl who believes in these securities keeps getting their asset destroyed, I don't see how the value can keep going up unless new money is brought in.

there is a term to describe this: ponzi scheme.

Here’s my question—

Actually first, the ETF’s: Yes, just watch what’s happened with some of the miners to get an idea of “what’s possible.” A liquidity crunch is coming in the space, and (maybe with the exception of a couple of the bigger, more well capitalized organizations), many will most likely face bankruptcy or be forced to sell holdings, which will diminish future earnings growth/potential.

But now here’s my question re: Bitcoin per se—

There is still a fixed number of coins, right? This is still the underpin that holds it together I think. It never really mattered whose hands they were in, so whether they are hacked from FCX, or tied in an arbitrage trade, or just sitting in someone’s cold storage, they still have the same intrinsic value as they did last Saturday (whatever that means). Conversely however, it’s all of the other “misc” coins like FTT that got cross collateralized—those are the real weakness in the infrastructure, because THIS is what ultimately dilutes Bitcoin by allowing them to be exchanged for (and thus valued in parity with) BTC. What that means for BTC long term, it’s hard to say. But because most of these companies trade around more than just the price of Bitcoin, I see them having to raise capital in order to continue operating. That means secondaries and dilution, that means debt offerings, and that means cutting into muscle if they are going to try and avoid bankruptcy. Either way, 6 mo. out it most likely means BTC ETF’s are (a lot) lower. Key support was beached this week, so it’s hard to tell where things will go in 2-3 weeks, but whatever direction the ETF’s go, most of the move will probably happen in the next 14 days.

idk. Just thinking out loud.

Swung FCX for 10% over the last two days. That and some GDX calls were the only things I touched in this delusional rally.

Natural resources copper like FCX.

I closed out my big FCX trade at the top this morning, just took a bath with Epsom salts and a joint relief bath bomb thing, smoked a joint in the tub, and now I’m gonna take a nap. Fuck this joke market today. Treat yo self

Alcoa up 14%. $FCX up 6%. $VALE up 9%. $MOS up 3%. I'm sure glad we have hit peak inflation and commodities are falling. /sarc

The Fed can influence demand with rising interest rates. But as we are seeing time and time again, all the central banks in the world can't increase supply. Inflation is not going away.

FCX Freeport mcmoran got me up 9% in two days. Good shit.

It looks like the copper trade is on. $FCX is up big this morning. The iron ore/steel stocks like $VALE and $CLF are as well. The growth must be coming from somewhere outside the USA.

I like $FCX for copper.

Yeah I had sold almost all puts yesterday just because they were up so much. I don’t mind taking profits at anything over 30%. My one open long spy put and one open IwM put got killed but they were basically free rolls and I expect to get some of those losses back. I made up the losses on GDX calls and FCX calls

Yeah the energy transition cannot happen without copper. People haven't yet copped on to the magnitude of change that is happening and the magnitude of supply growth that will be required to address it. I was in FCX and sold at 36 when it first popped up (got in at single digits). Then it didn't pull back and I missed out on some good gains. I'll be buying again soon as I have a feeling (or a hoping lol) that it will come down a little bit more.

Copper companies. FCX, SCCO, TECK...

We need a ton of copper for electrification. Currently the price is below what it should be to make a lot.of mines profitable. Either copper prices rise, or supply goes down and then copper prices rise.

A huge part of the recession is inflationary. A good bet in environments like this in the past is to buy commodity producers. When the money machine started brrrrrrring I went hard on XOM and FCX. XOM has hit, but FCX is still at an attractive price imo.

Wait until the low is in next year. 250K on TSLA. 125K on each of: BHP, VALE, FCX, GOLD, PAAS, XOM. If I could put 50% of each of these positions on via LEAPS, I would. Have dividends auto reinvest if possible, otherwise enjoy the income.

Defence- LMT, RTX, ITA etc

OIL- Pick anyone... plus pipelines... ENB.

Commodities - Especially strategic ones... FCX, MP, ALB, LAC

Health Care- No government intervention.

I think renewables might take a hit though.

The death of oil will come by 1000 cuts. It will slowly happen. There will be ramp up time. We can participate now and embrace the change or we can go kicking and screaming. Change will happen either way.

Reality? I love my electric car, love passing by gas stations joking with my passengers saying that I need to stop for gas. I love that I can go close to 300 miles for about $9 in energy costs, which I only pay if I’m not plugged in at work. I love the fact that I can go with geo-thermal heat/cool on the next house I build. I love that I can have solar panels charge a battery wall in my house and I can add electricity to the grid to defray my costs.

Green agenda? Hell yeah. Changing of the energy guard. Love it. Good luck with the uranium investment, should pan out. I like MP materials and FCX myself as they see themselves in a global mining boom

Just remember that there are smarter people out there than us and they will continue to optimize. Never say renewables won’t power the world. Some day, I’m sure they will.

I think we should give it a shot and then optimize from there. That’s how we got here so far.. taking ideas and making them better.

I went big into the miners about a month ago... FCX, AA, BHP, MP, TECK, ALB...

Gold will work but I think any materials play just might.

I am buying more Barrick $GOLD tomorrow. There are a lot of headwinds like increased production costs due to inflation. Their gold mining production/volume dropped a bit from last year. They have a variable dividend which is a base of 10 cents/qtr and this upcoming quarterly dividend was cut from an extra 10 cents to 5 cents. So this upcoming quarter's dividend is reduced from 20 cents to 15 cents. The stock also seems to have very little to no support so the bottom prolly isn't in.

But they also mine a lot of copper and their forward P/E is cheaper than $FCX. And I do believe Gold prices will rebound even if Gold only rebounds when all other equities do. And I do think most people forget just how much copper that Barrick does mine making it one of the cheapest copper mining stocks to own. When Gold prices also rise, than you have a 2x multiplying factor.

Company: Freeport-McMoran ... ($FCX)

Market Cap: $44.4B
Revenue (L12M): $23.2B
Profit Margin: 16.7%
PE Ratio: 10.85

Dividend Yield: 1.9%
EPS: -99999.99
Return on Equity: -9999999.0%
Beta: 1.946

Current Price: $32.94
Analyst Price Target: $36.38 (+10.4%)

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to prepare; check the forecast from last week against what actually happened (same source) LAST WEEK

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases October 17th, 2022 Implied moves for earnings LAST week:

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$NFLX 13.2% $TSLA 9.7% $SNAP 19.0% $BAC 5.3% $GS 5.4% $WHR 8.2% $SAM 9.2% $CSX 5.1% $THC 8.6% $VZ 5.0% $AXP 6.1% $RF 5.2% $IBM 6.2% $AA 10.7% $LRCX 8.1% $LVS 8.0% $KMI 4.0% $WDFC 8.6% $CCI 5.2% $PPG 5.1% $EFX 7.3% $AAL 8.1% $T 5.2% $NOK 7.4% $FCX 8.0% $DOW 5.4% $UNP 4.3% $UAL 8.0% $JBHT 5.7% $ISRG 7.4% $IBKR 5.2% $SCHW 6.5% $JNJ 3.0% $LMT 4.4% $HAS 6.6% $ABT 3.9% $ASML 7.6% $NDAQ 4.8% $PG 4.6% $WGO 8.0% $TRV 4.2%

Fcx missed earnings by over 16%. They have a 5%+ green day today

FCX missed everything on earnings. They up +6%. That's all you need to know about fake market. Buy Puts.

#I called FCX yesterday (up 7%) now im calling HOOD

Whoever said FCX calls yesterday, thank you for the 100%

#youre welcome everyone who I told to buy calls on FCX. Up 5% already. LFG

FCX huge beat 😘😘

This Tesla talk is t going to end so I am eying a put scalp on FCX Freeport mcmoran. They missed earnings and I think the headwinds for metals are huge. It hasn’t moved too much after they released earnings pre market. I think you could grab ours at open and sell em later today

#FCX earnings bout to be going up

Congrats to those who jumped on the FCX train early 💰💰💰💰🤤

#FCX about to hit green baby. Calls for earnings tomorrow.

#FCX about to go green

FCX for a copper play. Get in before it skyrockets.

FCX that is all

#u want a lotto? FCX earnings. Calls.

#FCX is the play