Only thing I got a put on is my pants. And grpn
Grpn puts of course. Nobody is offering discounts during recession. Spy is locked based on the option chain it will only move with significant news. I'll keep selling options to expire worthless if people keep buying them
Groupon's (GRPN) stake in SumUp alone is worth around $204 million. Yet its market cap is only around $210 million. It also has around $300 million in cash, which means the company itself is being valued at around negative $300 million! HUH???
Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1473 companies reporting(this is up/down):
>This is an interesting article. I was not aware of Groupon's struggles in recent years. It is interesting to see that the company is still around and trying to turn things around. As an investor, I would be interested in taking a closer look at GRPN stock
>I think that the key catalysts for GRPN will be a return to normalcy in terms of consumer spending and an increase in demand for groupon-type services. If these things happen, then I think the stock could easily double or triple from current levels.
My take on GRPN DD:
- their full year revenues are around 600m$ from the coupon sales
- Q1 2022 was a negative surprise, as covid wave ended but shops didn’t come back to Groupon as it was after previous covid waves. Main reason was that shops didn’t need groupon anymore, as there is too much demand which drives inflation up.
- in Q3 management came with about 150m$ OPEX savings, which will fully translate into PnL only from Q4 and Q1 2023
- key question is, if the current revenues are stable. Its seems they are max declining slightly, but we need to see Q3 numbers now
Management thesis is, that revenues from coupons are stable in current environment, and with the OPEX cuts there will be about 150m$ EBITDA and 100m FCF next year. If this will happen, 8x 150m$ EBITDA gives about 1.2bn valuation. So 6x return on current share price.
There is high short interest and one big activist investor PFC from Czech Republic, which has about 24% share in the company. For PFC it is their biggest investment and they have assembled management advisory team from former Groupon clone in Czech Republic - Slevomat. Their strategy is slightly different and gives a chance on sustainable business model for Groupon, more based on local experience and traveling rather than discount coupons on goods. They are testing the concept in one state now in Q4. So also important to watch.
Groupon is heavily burning money,up to 100m$ per quarter, except Q4 which is usually strong and positive due to xmas period.
Balance sheet gives groupon flexibilty of about max. 3 further Quarters, where they would burn remaining cash.
Market clearly doesn’t believe the story and is pricing the compny as dead (now less than the sumup stake, which I expect to be exited in next few quartes). That would give additional two quartes of full cash burn in current mode. So beyond 2023.
So key catalysts, which will make you 6x on current price:
- Revenues will be more or less flat and management succeeds in OPEX cuts
- Slow down in consumer spending will bring sales to groupon back (retailers will need new traffic)
- Business model change under PFC activist, will success
Nlok, grpn, and chgg all recession proof.
Groupon feels like a lost ship and probably wants to hold on to SumUp to give their $300 million market cap some sense of legitimacy. Even with the souring economy I still don't know anyone who uses the site and doubt usage will drastically increase.
I could see Groupon eventually reaching a much lower market cap of $50 million or less. Stores don't really need them to get people through the door now that they have Instagram.
Probability stands at 52%. Nit sure how that’s ‘no way’.
I cannot see how GRPN can be so bad going into an economic crisis. Everyone is gonna want to look for cheap deals…
I'm not supporting the play, but I can't not support the phrase "GRPN this dick."
Short Interest - 40.22% Shares Short - 6.29M Days to Cover- 6.75
Long term closely held company
The short interest in GRPN SO HIGH and concentrate owners. 🤔
Any y’all looking at GRPN for a squeeze ?
Actually, I just looked and $GRPN has a negative PE.
Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1323 companies reporting:
Why the fuck is GRPN up this week?
Every issue with major short interest is rocketing because hedges were getting killed on long positions and are being forced to deleverage.
CVNA, CHWY, BYND, some of the marijuana stocks, VRM, LULU, GRPN, PTON, NKLA... long list of shit that was solidly super green today.
Indeed. The height of the dotcom before the bust. The story of GRPN was awesome.
I don’t usually invest in companies like this, but I think this one is a decent bet.
Jan Barta has a history of recent success with this business model in Europe and he’s putting his money where his mouth is trying to turn GroupOn around. He bought from $20 all the way down to $11.55/shares spending ~$67M investing in GRPN between April-May 2022.
At the current price point, it could be a triple.
I’m buying deep value:. KD CPS XRX CNDT CWH TUP SPWH
-and some not as deep is on my watchlist: INTC BABA CLF OSTK CROX FOSL GRPN META WBD
I thought GRPN was dead, are you saying as a meme stock?
GRPN, baby! The short squeeze is happening!! About time someone looked at all that cash and the $500MM value of their SumUp investment. Even if the coupon business was completely worthless (which it isn't -- there are still millions of active users, believe it or not), the stock should be back up to $25/share.
Grpn 6/3 18$ looking like a good lotto ticket
GRPN may be largely forgotten, but they own a huge chunk of SumUp and are a cash-generating monster. Oh, and they still have millions of active buyers as well. I bought the huge dip last week and am waiting for the rest of Wall Street to catch up. Go Groupon!!
Groupon is so 2008 but it is not 2000-and-Late! Thanks for the nice two day rally, GRPN! I loaded up on shares at $11.32 this week and saw a 23% pop to $14 yesterday and another 11% pop today to $15.50. They aren't sexy, but they own around $528MM of SumUp and have $400MM+ in cash on the balance sheet -- and their market cap is only $464MM!! You are basically getting everything else for FREE and it is still a cash generating monster. I'm going to keep riding this train and suggest you join the fun!!
I keep seeing that GRPN has an intrinsic value of $20 per share.
GRPN might be an ACTUAL 10 bagger
Here are some implied moves for earnings next week with 944 companies set report:
(And the explanation on how I get the implied moves and how I use them : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/implied-moves-earnings-explanation/ )
Huge insider buying on GRPN rn. What do they know???
You said slow growth for GRPN 2 months ago, it has risen from 17 to 20.35$ till then so you were right on it, even if it wasnt bigger because of the market
If the market weren’t in chaos the last year everyone who followed my DDs would be millionaires I’m sure 😅 RIP UBER, VIAC/PARA, and GRPN
VIX futures and options, for steady monthly income. You have to know what you're doing though. (Stay away from any ETFs or ETNs based on it, please. That's amateur hour, and you'll get absolutely murdered if you don't know what you're doing.)
MTBCP - preferred shares of what used to be Medical Transcription Services I think, but now calls themselves Care Cloud. I buy when it gets to a 25 or 26 handle, sell when it goes to less than a 10% yield, which is mid 27ish if I remember right, wait for it to come down again when it does that, buy again. Steady monthly income here too.
GRPN - Nice income producer too. (Wat???) Buy it, sell covered calls at < 30 delta every week, nice steady stuff because its IV is high. If it goes up too much you have to cover the sold options, but that's a good problem to have. Nice and low now, obviously get out if it gets too high, which I'd say would be around 30 at this point. Probably due for a small dump as its been rising nicely for the last few weeks.
So I did the BP and GRPN based on your recommendation ( or the bot recommendation). I didn't like the other pick from my own deductions so I didn't trade on that. I made the money on those as well and I was hoping to see few more plays but you're right. It probably does need some tweaking. Thanks for sharing and I'll be looking forward to more of your posts.
GRPN $18P are ITM now... even the $17p might become ITM before COB today
Some implied moves(+/-) for earnings next week - 679 companies reporting:
Some implied moves(+/-) for earnings next week - 679 companies reporting:
And the explanation on how I get the implied moves and how I use them : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/implied-moves-earnings-explanation/
1847 Goedeker Inc
PPS - $2.01 (Feb 21, 2022)
Mohawk Industries, Inc.
PPS - $148.26 (Feb 21, 2022)
Groupon Inc Common Stock
PPS - $23.46 (Feb 21, 2022)
American Resources Corp
PPS - $1.96 (Feb 21, 2022)
These idea’s are terrible! Having said that let me give my own terrible ideas!
GOED MHK GRPN
This is not financial advise.
Interesting perspective. As an advertiser, I know there’s a ton of junk, display ads that offer limited value, but I can buy that for Pennies. I don’t see businesses leaving FB or Google so soon. CPMs have been driven down on more targeted ads over the last number of years. As a business owner the model still works for me.
And food for thought - I was a mortgage lender in 2003. I lived in Boiler Room. This, this does not feel like boiler room. The only thing this kinda feels like, is an inflationary period that may need to be forced into a recession, thereby making it tougher on businesses which means less advertising and more discounts, Groupons etc. to cash flow without having to pay for an ad.
To be clear I hold both GOOG and GRPN.
only issue I have is with number 7.
been in it for 16 years and this is just hindsight bias. That is, just because you are holding something for long term, does not take out the risk and does not mean that you didn't make a bad buy. loon at grpn, ge, etc
you need to find balance with risk reward. In a good outcome like we have had, the market has rewarded high risk plays. However, IF you were just starting out in 2021 in tech, you wouldve been destroyed.
how these companies play out from here is anyones guess, but the main issue is IF you were all in, now you have to sit out for a few years.
if you dont take enough risk, then you dont perform well. Too much risk and you blow out. You need to find the middle, specific to your earning ability and situation.
tldr: plan to be wrong, position yourself accordingly, have some money for flexibility.
How much was your margin on GRPN and how much was from your cash balance?
Wrong. Look at the waybacachine. First snapshot on a trading day in 2016, which I was around for.
We have glbl, sune, nbg, ebay, goro, grpn, tsla, uwti, ugaz, vrx, gold, pot stocks ON THE FIRST PAGE with reference to sune 10-k filing which I doubt most here even know what a 10-k is. It's over 90% discussion, literally better then I thought as I see NOT A SINGLE MEME and a SINGLE shitpost.
It was because pypl did poorly on guidance. Grpn and square are partnered and grpn has shares of sumup. Look into next square earnings for slight rally. March is the fed meeting as well, there’s going to be a nice pop from there as well I guess
GROUPON GRPN. ALIBABA BABA and FORD F in that order
Everything I track looks like it’s within a standard deviation. Except grpn, which is 3x.
Can't post it but if you search GRPN on Google there's a SA article from late December basically making the same argument.
Going to YOLO $20k into calls… help me pick how teared Ed I should be.
MNMD 1/23 $2.5 GRPN 1/23 $35 COIN 1/23 $250 TLRY 1/23 $10
Ive been trading since 06. Its been a learning curve and each year has bee progress. the thing holding me back has been my risk aversion, leading to small bets.
Ive had amd and nvda before they were "cool" .
3.50 and 11/12 per share. sold for a 20% profit in the year.
msft in its 60s.
I dont know if they will or not, thats the point. Look at sears, ge, gpro, grpn,bbry and many others that at the time of their downfall, someone like you said the exact same thing you are saying now. Are these companies different? in hindsight sure. At the time, not so much.
All I know is, today, the market is willing to pay 20-30x sales on companies that have no buy back plan or dividends. 20-30 years from now, people might not.
The returns that these companies have had has been in share price due to people buying shares. Aapl and msft issue dividends and do engage in buy backs, this is the return you should be looking at, since it is what keeps people holding shares and produces real value for holders.
If a company is just growing in share price but has limited earnings, the hope is at some point theyll return earnings to the holders, but this may never happen. If it isnt happening, then your only out is someone who is willing to pay more than you did. This last part is definitely likely, considering the sentiment has shifted to just throwing your money in etfs (which purchases these shares).
tldr: no one knows. share price is dependent on someone willing to pay more than what you paid.
sears, blackberry, lehman, bearsterns, nortel, grpn, gopro, block buster, ge,, nokia, bac (still not at its peak)
not all monsters, but all were pretty popular/big.
look at some of the companies that recently crashed as well.
holding long term is a risk reduction strategy that gives you more time to be right. It doesnt mean you will be right.
GRPN is starting to move. Take advantage of all them Karens trying to save money.
who is still holding grpn for long term?
My boomer relative pitched me GRPN and is bragging about how it's up 15% yesterday.
Am I retarded or is it indeed a shitty business? Both?
Are you kidding . GRPN peaked like 10 years ago. The majority of businesses don't come out ahead by partnering with GRPN, it is a garbage race business model
Did anyone even use GRPN before the pandemic? How is it considered such a good recovery play?
I've been beating the drum about Groupon (GRPN). Glad to see respected analysts joining in!!
"Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) is a misunderstood Company that has been wrongly left for
dead due to an antiquated bear thesis and apathetic sell-side. Market participants
have completely overlooked the sizable and growing value of Groupon’s investment
in SumUp, and are significantly undervaluing the Company’s core business, which has
recently stabilized and is poised for significant growth. We believe shares are worth
at least $63.18 today and could exceed $98.00 in a conservative upside scenario.
-Prescience Point Research"
take money when its on the table. Reduce risk whenever you can.
Loving a stock long term is not a reason to not take profit. this is trader bias.
think of all the people who liked ge,lehman, grpn, etc long term.
Wowzers check out GRPN Groupon. Thought they were dead......big bullish research report out.
All in GRPN. They're gonna need it
Do you guys remember this company called Groupon?? Let's pump GRPN
$wish reminds me of $grpn 95% down from IPO never went up for once
Thanks for reminding me! Opening a position in them and possibly GRPN.
Nah, I disagree. I don’t own grpn, but I see it as a reopening stock. People love discounted activities. They just partnered with Square app. I can see small business utilizing it, trying to bring in new customers.
Bruh they are GRPN (take a look at that 5 year chart) without the strength of local deals. GRPN started letting anyone on their platform...and it all went to sh*t. Same thing has happened with WISH. Fool me once...shame...you know, the thing.
Hello my fellow degens! $GRPN shorts are gonna get wrecked. Check the chart zoom out, 30 comes faster than your wife’s boyfriend
A company like GRPN has a ton of cash but has performed terribly. Same with CRON.
GRPN earnings beat (3rd beat in a row) and tons of cash on Groupon's balance sheet. Oh yeah, they also just announced a partnership with Google. I'm holding for the big pay off! Good luck, longs!!
Some implies moves for earnings next week:
Some implied moves for earnings next week:
Idk, but the food industry is in need of a booster. $dnut $taco $wtrh $bros $ptlo $shak all of that. Look at $CMG numbers, reopening stocks. And $grpn
GRPN has had some huge moves. This is where the "mispriced" IV fails, going by IV some of GRPN's moves shouldn't happen in a 100 years. 4+ SD moves should be incredibly rare, but they aren't really.
You looked at IV over the last year. It also dropped from 40 to 65, to 45, to 20. IV crush isn't going to make up for that type of gap up.
I like selling straddles/strangles. I wouldn't do it on an underlying that has a tendency to move like this tho.
The plotting of IV and RV and predicting FV is a great tip thanks! However when people say "edge" they usually mean a trade with expected value greater than 0 right? Can you say that for certain about the GRPN sample trade? Sure IV is inflated compared to RV so your PoP is high, but you don't really know exactly what it is right? Do you really have an edge in the GRPN trade?
Earnings should be the first week of November. If we get the beat on expectations -- and I don't see why it won't happen again -- I think there will be a short squeeze. Then again, GRPN often has a run-up prior to earnings, so it might happen a little sooner. I'm just looking forward to all those shorties losing their shirts.