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International Business Machines Corporation

IBMNYSE

133.80

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+2.63
(+2.01%)
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21.57P/E
13Forward P/E
0.83P/E to S&P500
119.928BMarket CAP
5.01%Div Yield
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Recent Reddit Comments

I have 90 $120 puts on IBM that expire Friday I need a miracle

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This approach makes for light regulation from the top. The Federal Council, the federal government’s executive branch, does without recognisable figureheads. The cabinet has seven members who have equal power and each of whom spends a year as president, ensuring that no one remembers their names for long. While the council has few powers the country’s 26 cantons have plenty, as do its more than 2,000 municipalities. Cantons run health care, welfare, education, law enforcement and fiscal policy. That allows them to compete to be attractive to businesses and their workers. Lucerne halved its corporate tax rate in 2012 to do just that. Zug has the lowest corporate tax rate at 11.9%. Only “offshore” financial centres such as Guernsey and Qatar have lower tax rates than those levied in the low-tax cantons, states a report by kpmg, an accounting firm. Compare that to France where the rate is 26.5%.

The competition doesn’t stop at light taxation. Cantons help to fund top-notch universities. Zurich’s Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (eth), one of the two federal institutes of technology, is regularly ranked among the best universities in continental Europe. Strong links between business and academia mean that graduates have the right skills. For instance, in January 2020 Nestlé, the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (epfl), another federal institute of technology, the canton of Vaud and the Swiss Hospitality Management School in Lausanne launched the “Swiss Food Nutrition Valley”, a research programme to promote innovation in sustainable food production. Logitech, a maker of software, and Cisco, a technology firm, have research centres on the epfl campus.

Yet for all its success Switzerland has become less attractive as a hub for multinationals over the past three decades. In 1990 two-thirds of America’s top 20 companies (including General Motors, Hewlett-Packard and ibm) had their European headquarters in Switzerland. In 1992 Swiss voters decided against following the Norwegian example and joining the European Economic Area with access to the eu’s single market. As a consequence some of the world’s most successful companies, such as Amazon, Alibaba and Samsung, decamped to Amsterdam, Dublin and London. Last year Switzerland missed another chance to gain smooth access to one of the world’s largest markets when it failed to convert 120 bilateral deals into an overarching treaty with the eu.

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You are years behind.

IBM Watson has done that for a long time. I used to use Watson supercomputer for fun at work.

What's out there is frighteningly powerful and arguably is becoming aware of it's surroundings and of itself. We as a society are ignoring the speed of its birth

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Think of it another way. If ALL the big players have already sold out, and there's SOOO much negative sentiment priced in, it wouldn't take much positive news to move the needle.

As far anticipating wars, that's a fools errand. I don't think anyone could have anticipated the hot war in Europe. And nobody knows what wars will unfold in the future. If China were to attack any developed country it would quickly bring with it WW3 or a cold war my worse than the soviet era cold war. I don't see that happening. China wants economic prosperity above all else. Starting a war would not help in that regard.

Again, as far as delisting is concerned because of affiliation with a belligerent country, just remember IBM supplied Nazis with devices and so did GM. Nationalism always seems to take a back seat to money.

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They got stuck in the 80s and never came out of it. People go to Japan and expect the place to be high tech but instead find themselves in a time warp of fax machines and cash transactions and dinner reservations by phone. Japan feels like one of those old tech companies from the 90s (oracle, Cisco, ibm) that still makes good money but never really modernized and caught up and is now a total dinosaur.

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The entire office suite of products, the browser, even the operating system which he bought from someone else.

You may not know this but he made a deal with IBM to co-develop a more stable, business-only version of the OS. Only, he lied to them and sabotaged that development until his MS programmers could take all they learned from IBM to program that into Windows.

He was incredibly lucky to be born at that moment to wealthy parents with incredible connections at the University of Washington (computer lab access no other kid had) and IBM. IBM sued and won iirc, but by then it was too late. If you look up one example of how Gates killed innovation, that’s a good one.

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theres a difference between flailing around between business models, and adapting to changing landscapes. in fact, there are countless business cases for disruption. here's one from IBM - it was quite literally the first result when i looked up "business cases for change"

https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/YPAPB0A2

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I followed him from pre-campus days. He bought DOS because he couldn’t make it himself. He used his Mom’s connections at IBM to get MS DOS used in PC’s. He threatened to cut off software vendors if they gave consumers a choice by also selling competitor products. He hired lobbyists to change the laws so MS could not be held responsible for damages due to MS shipping products that were still in beta and didn’t work as advertised. He changed the laws so MS could save billions trying to document their own products, only to turn around and create a publishing Dept so they could sell the directions to their products separately.

He used a monopoly in one area, to dump mediocre products for free in other areas, to kill competition and innovation. Once he bankrupted a competitor by giving away a mediocre version of their product for free, he would start charging for the MS product and/or leverage that monopoly to attack another competitor or potential competitor. See Smart Suite, Netscape, and so on.

He charged consumers $450/license before inflation for a product (Office) that was worth about $80/license.

Excel is an amazing tool. But he ripped off Windows (graphic UI), fonts, office, search, browsers, etc from others.

Recall that Gates created the most easily hackable and unstable OS on the planet because this way it was easier for developers to use the computer to do all sorts of things. Security was an option you had to buy separately from a third-party because MS couldn’t or wouldn’t make their own products safe / secure.

Bill Gates is a highly intelligent person who was a ruthless businessman who killed hundreds of billions in investment and innovation by actual inventors, programmers, and innovators.

How do you think he actually got to be one of the world’s richest billionaires?

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From the 90s until now, IBM has spent in excess of $200+ billion doing share buybacks yet sits at a current market cap of only $115B. Imagine if they actually put that money to use actually trying to grow the company over the long-term. Lol. An empty blackhole for cash.

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I've bought and sold ibm over the course of 11 years. All it ever did was just drag.

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It’s the reality, when someone asks “can I lose are my money?” When it’s in an index fund, think logically what has to happen for it to go to zero. All those companies will cease to exist. No more Apple, no Microsoft, no JP Morgan, say goodbye to Coke, and Pepsi, IBM would not longer exist, etc… what do you think the world would look like? Chances are you wouldn’t even have internet access anymore to even view your account values and that’s if your bank is even still in business.

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Similar to IBM <> Kyndryl (KD). Value gets paid out as shares of the new company. Probably overvalued initially but ok later on

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I worked at IBM for years, and I’m still in the tech industry and watch them closely. They do not belong on the list, government contracts or not.

That being said, thank you for the work you did and sharing it with us, I appreciate it.

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That appears to be the article that the OP is misquoting. It is a also a good example of "torture the data long enough, and it will tell you anything.". It's counting 4.5 years from the bottom in 1932, not the top in 1929. It ignores the fact that stocks when back down after 1936. Rob Shiller was name dropped to lend authority, but the 14% dividend was an extreme value, that only existed for a month, and he did not contribute to this article in any meaningful way. It focuses on the Dow and how keeping IBM would have changed the answer, but the Dow is shitty index. Academic studies focus on a simulated S&P for this time period, rather than the Dow.

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IBM like Ericsson and other older tech companies make a lot of money on patents. Buffet owns IBM so there is that.

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I’m in the tech industry and there is no way I would ever invest in IBM. They aren’t a leader in any tech and have no real hope to be. Their pay is too low to attract good talent as well.

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I do know that IBM has a ton of government contracts. That helps a lot.

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IBM. ABC. Actually quite a few companies with logos designed by Paul Rand.

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Why IBM? May be a dividend play but their revenues and earnings continue to decline. Their reputation is downright horrible too.

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I agree coding is a great way to earn this money and achieve his goal but I think ML is barking up the wrong tree.

ML is generally done by big companies. Google, Microsoft, IBM etc. Unless you’re going to get a job with them, you’re probably going to face the problem that there isn’t much freelance work in it. Where there is plenty of freelance work is web dev, app dev etc.

Essentially, XYZ bistro will contract you $5000 to build their new website. They are not going to need anybody to build them an image classifier or text prediction algorithm.

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Some in demand online skill.

If you’re up to it, learn programming in some easy to get clients field. By that I mean, for example, web dev, app dev etc is often done by freelancers - you can get clients/work. Machine learning is done by Google, Apple, IBM etc. So it’s obvious which is better for a side hustle.

If you’re less technical, there are plenty of other niches. Getting certified in say, Google Ads would easily make you able to earn that kind of money. There are tonnes of such niches. Just Google what certifications Google, Microsoft’s Amazon web services etc are offering and get that certificate.

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I'm currently taking this Data Science certificate from IBM on Coursera, but I'm on a blank on what I could do next, what to delve deeper beyond what's been taught.

My current role is completely unrelated, just a customer service drone for a call center.

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U didnt know IBM certified him as a coding genius when he was a kid?

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IBM is bled dry their earnings are less sensitive than ad spend in a slowdown

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IBM keeping its head down, hoping investors don't notice them.

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IBM has a higher PE than GOOGL 🤡

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Or you could end up like Microsoft and continue to dominate decade after decade.

Also I wonder, how much cash was on IBM and GEs balance sheet at their peak. Was it equivalent to Apple’s $200 billion? I doubt it.

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Yeah absolutely. Maybe by then IBM or some old school company will totally reinvent themselves and we'll kick ourselves for not buying more.

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Yes, 30 years ago we wouldn't be keeping AAPL as heirloom, maybe we had high conviction on Intel, IBM or Nokia? My question is more about now, this period, what do we hold as heirloom for our kids, who may laugh at us with bunch of useless GOOGL shares in 2050.

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Gates hired a coder to make a CP/M clone, sold it as MS/DOS and used his mommy’s connections to get IBM to back it

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I'm pretty sure you don't know what a mainframe is

And I'm buying calls on IBM

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Ah, I don’t. I remember a time when the idea of one $1T company was absurd. Then there was, like 5 all of a sudden. During a time of pure stimulus injection. Nonetheless, if it were 1980, people would be looking to GE & IBM to pull the market up by their bootstraps. Times change, markets move & maybe another 50% could happen. Less will soon be more & that’s when actual innovation occurs🍻

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Its stock used to split every 6 months as a new company. Soon it became a mature company.

Huawei ate its bread and butter and it never pressed a royalty payment on routers with Huawei reverse engineered or put Huawei copy cat out of business. Csco has been losing talent left and right. Zoom was purchased by Cisco and it could sue Eric Yuan for stealing confidential knowledge and talent competing with Csco. I see it as a weak company to go after a competitor unlike bigger competitors like IBM.

Cisco 18 buildings on Tasman Drive is not like what it used to be. Many ambitious employees left for greener pasture. Market cap of 172B seems to be over rated. They need to buy back more and be more innovative.

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That still doesn't make IBM an investable company right now.

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If I own IBM, I’m getting (and expecting) a risk premium. The thing the index adds is diversity.

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What are you even talking about? IBM is holding solid this year and is hardly down, and performed much better than all big caps

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Could be. If this were 1980. People would be looking to GE & IBM to pull the market out of it’s slump. Now look @ them🍻

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I agree with your sentiment. IBM is a losing stock, and for it to be a Top 10 in any ETF raises red flags.

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I've never understood the hype around SCHD other than the low expense ratio. Any ETF that has IBM as a Top 10 holding makes me question the entire investment strategy...

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Do minimum trade right now. Amzn will split on June 3, in this market it can dip to 80-90 easily or go up to 120 ish by year end. By then it is just an another IBM stock price wise.

I have some funds that I had since 90s supposed to be massive. How much equity or gain depends on how the market behaves.

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Tesla has very good support around $700. If it gets under 650 you could think of selling considering your low entry point, but then you will pay tax and also have the problem of reallocating capital. Tesla is overvalued but often good companies are overvalued. I used to work for IBM for a few good years, that company hasn't been overvalued since before the Financial Crisis, but PEs, PS, EPS and other traditional value metrics says nothing about what the company is really doing.

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I’ve heard stories of people riding dinosaurs like IBM and GE down for decades, constantly bleeding money but always thinking the turnaround is about to happen. INTC gives me that same vibe. In the history of the market there are only a handful cases of former giants recapturing their old glory. Once innovation passes you by it’s very hard to catch up.

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To your first point, yes, macro pricing does have a major impact on the valuation of miners. I'm personally of the opinion that we're in for a decade of price pressure to the upside, just given the calculations of how much iron, copper, nickel, etc the world is going to need, vs the current reserves.

But technological innovation happens. I don't see it as more of a risk than a tech company getting pushed aside by new changes. IBM comes to mind. Or any company in any industry. I don't envision a world where base metals become unprofitable, but I'm sure my grandparents didn't envision a world with the internet. Risk exists, but I'm not largely worried about it.

To your second point on geographic locations, I think it's a bit more nuanced. The US, Australia, and Canada, and to a lesser extent regions like Colombia or Mexico are more attractive than the DRC or Mongolia, and command higher valuations. But Ivanhoe and Zijin have had no problem getting funding for their DRC project, largely because it's one of the best deposits in the world. I think risk is priced into any asset. Similar to say, Brazilian oil company Petrobras. If it was a US company, it'd likely be worth 3x it's current value. It's not that bad regions are wholly off limits, it just needs to be priced appropriately, and have a corresponding reward (high grade deposit) worth the risk.

Certainly, if I had two identical properties, one in a friendly region, and one not, I'd skew to the better area, but I wouldn't rule out a high potential project in a risky area, assuming it was priced appropriately. I will say, for all their political risk, China is pouring a lot of money into these high risk African regions. Obviously a western investor should ask if they're willing to work with China, but even Canada seems to have interest in the continent. I'd argue it's a very high potential, very underdeveloped region that could pay off big, if you had the nerves to battle through the risks.

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I think AAPL is the modern day IBM.

The "safest" tech play. IBM held up way better than the rest of tech in 2000-2002.

AAPL will hold up way better than the rest of tech.

But anywhere above 4-5x revenue on AAPL doesn't make sense.

It went from 3x revenue to 8x revenue based on just multiple expansion.

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is this the dumbest comment a citadel shilling bot could have generated?

I dont even day trade. I just buy stock. I really like dividends. Clear signs have been stacking up for years. since June last year I have only picked up inverse stock aside from some IBM shares. I'm still in the green.

incase you're an actual person you're clearly the one having a bad day. get good son.

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lol - 1980 didn't have tech and growth, Intel, Cray supercomputers, IBM computers the beginning of the personal computer - what you consider tech and growth today started in the 70's and the big players are the ones who adapted and survived. IBM introduced a cutting edge electric typewriter to see it disrupted by the PC revolution, in the 70's you had atari etc etc. Canada had 12 straight years of massive deficit spending by trudeau senior which lead to the massive inflation that occurred then - this situation has been created by once more massive deficit spending softening the covid impact - now we will pay the price, hopefully you balanced your portfolio a year ago when the talk of raising interest rates to combat inflation talk started! It isn't rocket science but you have to have your eyes open and not be chasing 20 yrs from now. I'm down 4% from my ATH because I shifted to inflation hedging and boated up on banks and OIL knowing they were so low at some point they would have to go up. Rus/Ukr. has just taken that strategy of safety to one of offsetting the growth sector fallout!

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The same guy who said to sell Apple, hold Microsoft and buy IBM in 2016? lol

His videos are just him plugging numbers into an excel equation and then editing them until the output is aligned with his personal perception.

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IBM is very much why Microsft (arguably Apple too because of Gates investing in the late 90s) became such a large company, they gave them a huge head start.

GE had Jack Welch, someone who had a very significant impact on how business is run, how companies run, how CEOs lead, often cited as an early CEO celebrity. In many ways Elon Musk is a modern version of what Jack Welch was.

It's all super interesting history and really gives a good picture on how vulnerable the top companies can be despite everybody at the time thinking they are untouchable.

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I bought HPE and IBM, about $10k each, late last year and they have held up admirably.

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They've got in first with something, but I just think IBM/ google will swallow it up. Ionq's revenue is only 2 million. Cant see them being able to compete imo. Not even mentioned here https://www.zdnet.com/article/eight-leading-quantum-computing-companies-in-2020/

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Or something else has to become the new cool thing.

Early adopters often avoid the trendy thing and eventually their thing becomes trendy. Like once upon a time facebook was the place to be. Now it's where your aunt and grandpa hang out. Eventually somewhere else may push out something cool and apple might stop being cool.

It's certainly a risk, even if I too don't see a mass move as something happening immediately in the next 5 years. But I can't think of many things that have remained dominant for 20 years. Surefire bets in the past like IBM, GM and the like are now dead in the water. The seemingly inevitable monopoly of internet explorer was quickly broken by firefox and chrome. Facebook fell to(and then bought) instagram and that is now falling to tiktok.

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I did not realize it used the gains on Cloud storage. Son was an IT guy worked on the servers running backup daily. He joined a company chose to buy time and storage. That was Amzn new sector of business. Like IBM people were caught off guard with external storage w/o a server in house. I was not expecting AMZN cloud business took off that quickly.

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Macroeconomic factors inflicted -19% YTD on GOOG stock. Markets expect 3.25% Fed funds in Dec 2022, meaning bond yields need to rise by then, and growth stocks could be impacted. It might be worth considering how Google / Alphabet compares to other stocks in this macro environment.

If you expect the bear market to get worse, a company like IBM (with more cloud business than Google, last I checked) might be a better pick, up +3% YTD.

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Dude, if you have the skills to maintain an ancient IBM mainframe, you have the skills to get a much, much better paying job.

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Same was said of stocks like GE and IBM.

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Applied to a job in my town paying $40k to program and maintain an ancient IBM mainframe, that would be so fucking big 🙏📿

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Little do we know, these "algos" are actually large teams of monkeys out trading us on old IBM Aptivas

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Because when you're a late entrant (GCloud) into a crowded market (AWS, Azure, DigitalOcean, IBM etc), one of the ways you can win customers is by giving them big discounts, literally on years of usage. That costs money.

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You know most of the very successful ones:

ADBE, MSFT, GOOG and **especially** AMZN

AAPL was big in the late 80s early 90s but by late 90s was a dog.

There are some that were very successful in 1990s & 2000s but have since fallen various distances back in the pack. Hardware was big in the 90s early 2000s, so:

ORCL, ADSK, Epson, HP and HP, Lexmark, San Disk, Dell, Compaq, IBM

Then some that were successful but disappeared entirely:

Gateway, Pets.com....

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Honestly my moves are pick up etfs and dollar cost average on ibm, kmb, xom. Market has been too volatile for interesting yolo plays. Sorry bros rather be safe

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Interesting ideas. Google's business is gathering user data and selling ads based on that data. YouTube helps on both of those fronts. I cannot see them benefitting from a divestiture, but am often wrong. To that Fool.com piece, I do not think Waymo is worth $30B, let alone the almost $200B people were ascribing to it. Also, analysts have had some awful takeover & spin-off ideas since I've been watching.

I still resent how the US Gov presented its case vs. Microsoft. The real anti-trust was in how they crowded out competitors for Office. The split should have been one company that makes the OS, another makes applications. David Boies's semi-recent news makes me dislike his performance suing Microsoft even more.

Other big tect anti-trust cases were AT&T and IBM. The AT&T case was arguably successful. IBM case got withdrawn. My grandpa was working at both companies when they finished their cases.

It is orders of magnitude easier to prevent acquisitions than to break companies up after the fact. I wonder who in government AT&T pissed off, and the back-story behind that litigation.

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Mutual funds, index funds, SPY, QQQ. Diversification is key.

Point is don't pick specific companies, anyone still remember IBM?

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he bought ibm, bagheld. hates on tech, buys aapl. buys oil at the top. lmao. he doesnt know what hes doing. idk why ppl idolize him like hes an investing god. he made a few good calls and had good opportunities. if you buy and hold until you are 80, you would be rich too.

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Tech is a lot of things now.

There is "tech" that is speaking of computers, internet, decentralized block chains, and Silicone Valley type stuff.

Then there is the integration of tech into all aspects of life from "smart things", 5G, technological disruption in how we do work, mRNA vaccines, etcetc.

In terms of investing, tech is also being merged into the idea of "growth" oriented stocks vs "value" oriented lower tech stocks. That doesn't mean IBM isn't high tech or not in the technology sector, but it seeks to operate and generate returns as a company vs a Google that is focused on growing. That can be applied to a lower tech industry like real estate where STWD will be about operating and providing dividends while a Zillow focuses on growth.

The point the other guy makes is that "tech" can mean a lot of thing or nothing at all because every large company is technically a "tech" company in terms of "Constantly recognizing the potential for upstart disruption and putting additional focus/funds towards thwarting it.". Just like how EVERY media company is fighting with Netflix and rebranding as streamers or how EVERY automaker is throwing the gauntlet at TSLA and rebranding themselves as tech company.

That's because everyone with 1/10th of a brain has seen that every "non-tech" company got disrupted and either adapted into a tech company or DIED. Netflix killed blockbuster hasn't managed to kill the other media giants. LYFT/UBER disrupted the taxi industry, but many small independent providers have adapted to offer better services. Apple killed Nokia and Motorola who killed landline phones. Iphones replaced like 99 other things from watches, maps, compasses, phonebooks, phones, cameras, etcetc. Where did those companies go? They either adapted/evolved like Samsung did or failed like Kodak did. Google killed Yahoo which replaced AOL which disrupted the pre-net world. Amazon who killed local bookstores, music shops, Mainstreet, Sears, Kmart, Radioshack, etcetc. Yet Target, Costco, and Walmart all survived by adapting technology not only on the consumer front facing end, but top to bottom from logistics, inventory, and integrating online with physical stores.

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Tech is a lot of things now.

There is "tech" that is speaking of computers, internet, decentralized block chains, and Silicone Valley type stuff.

Then there is the integration of tech into all aspects of life from "smart things", 5G, technological disruption in how we do work, mRNA vaccines, etcetc.

In terms of investing, tech is also being merged into the idea of "growth" oriented stocks vs "value" oriented lower tech stocks. That doesn't mean IBM isn't high tech or not in the technology sector, but it seeks to operate and generate returns as a company vs a Google that is focused on growing. That can be applied to a lower tech industry like real estate where STWD will be about operating and providing dividends while a Zillow focuses on growth.

The point the other guy makes is that "tech" can mean a lot of thing or nothing at all because every large company is technically a "tech" company in terms of "Constantly recognizing the potential for upstart disruption and putting additional focus/funds towards thwarting it.". Just like how EVERY media company is fighting with Netflix and rebranding as streamers or how EVERY automaker is throwing the gauntlet at TSLA and rebranding themselves as tech company.

That's because everyone with 1/10th of a brain has seen that every "non-tech" company got disrupted and either adapted into a tech company or DIED. Netflix killed blockbuster hasn't managed to kill the other media giants. LYFT/UBER disrupted the taxi industry, but many small independent providers have adapted to offer better services. Apple killed Nokia and Motorola who killed landline phones. Iphones replaced like 99 other things from watches, maps, compasses, phonebooks, phones, cameras, etcetc. Where did those companies go? They either adapted/evolved like Samsung did or failed like Kodak did. Google killed Yahoo which replaced AOL which disrupted the pre-net world. Amazon who killed local bookstores, music shops, Mainstreet, Sears, Kmart, Radioshack, etcetc. Yet Target, Costco, and Walmart all survived by adapting technology not only on the consumer front facing end, but top to bottom from logistics, inventory, and integrating online with physical stores.

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My favorite is IBM.

  1. Lever up with cheap debt to fund buy backs.
  2. Report continuous GAAP losses, but cover it up by making obscene future assumptions and report continuos quarterly layoff costs as "one time" costs and report non GAAP profit.
  3. Award executives huge pay packages for meeting "positive" earnings.
  4. Profit.
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From above list Exxon, GE, IBM, Toyota, Nomura etc aren't out of business yet but did they beat the market over past 30 years? I don't think so.

The thing is we cannot say with certainity that the stocks that did well in the past will continue to do so.

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Sounds like Cisco, IBM, Ford…

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amzn is too big to grow. its turning into an IBM. boring and out of favor.

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It isn’t the business that suffers usually. It’s your coworkers. They get stuck with picking up all the pieces with no warning. In this particular case, my coworkers were all IBM lifers, so they didn’t really give a shit. Still, I haven’t done it since. Again, for my team, not the overall business.

Now if you are leaving because of your team? Different story…. Luckily I have never had to leave over a hostile team.

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It was petty. It really was but this particular guy was an old school IBM manager. Came up through IBM in the 80’s. Which in itself wasn’t such a bad thing. IBM invested a lot in their managers during those days.

His issue was being stuck in that mindset. You have to have a suit on at all times(it’s 110+ in the desert). If someone isn’t at their keyboard, they must be screwing around and costing big blue money. Etc. for the most part a real asshole to work with.

Only saving grace is he left us alone because we knew what the hell we were doing and the customer preferred us over the full time IBM admins that mainly just counted down hours until retirement.

So in short it did feel good, but it was petty and I probably should have handled it better. It was in my much younger days so… eh. Live and learn.

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>Those 4 companies are ~20% of the S&P. Add tesla and you’re close to 25%. So, if you’re afraid of a theoretical downward risk in holding those names, and instead choose to buy the S&P, how are you not necessarily still at risk?

Just to be clear, I don't advocate not holding those names. Just not making them 100% of your portfolio. As you say, if they outpace the market, you still benefit by holding them in your whole-market ETF. And if they falls short ... you still benefit by holding other things. It's not eliminating risk, but rather ensuring a positive outcome across a wide range of futures.

As far as "today's behemoths are not like yesterday's behemoths" - everything you said was said in the past about GE, Bell Labs, IBM, etc. They were all tech-based, constantly re-inventing themselves, grew aggressively through acquisition, had multiple lines of revenue. Didn't matter. The changing world came for them all.

More generally - every time in history someone has said "history has stopped turning, and the future will continue to look like today," they have been wrong. And every time someone has said "I get that, but this time is different" ... they've been wrong.

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Just a reminder that their 11 qubit device is the only thing available to customers and it only has 3 usable qubits (passing QV n=3, 2^3=8). It lost to IBM and Quantinuum, so of they want to become an "industry leader" this next computer better 1. Exist and 2. Be amazing.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.03816

I'll believe it when I see it pass independent benchmarking

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because it could pull a IBM.

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MOST VALUABLE GLOBAL COMPANIES IN 1989

1 Industrial Bank of Japan Japan 104,291.49 (USD MILLION)

2 Sumitomo Bank Japan 73,304.65

3 Fuji Bank Japan 69,403.38

4 Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Japan 64,036.45

5 Exxon Corp United States 63,838.00

6 General Electric USA United States 58,187

7 Tokyo Electric Power Japan 56,499.62

8 IBM Corp United States 55,656.99

9 Toyota Motor Corp. Japan 53,251.22

10 American Tel & Tel United States 48,951.00

11 Nomura Securities Japan 46,810.74

12 Royal Dutch Petroleum Netherlands 41,004.23

13 Philip Morris Cos United States 38,581.99

14 Nippon Steel Japan 36,586.72

15 Tokai Bank Japan 35,346.51

16 Mitsui Bank Japan 34,985.00

17 Matsushita Elect Ind’l Japan 33,363.05

18 Kansai Electric Power Japan 33,127.53

19 Hitachi LTD Japan 32,212.65

20 Merck & Co United States 30,747.00

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You should be able to get a plugin for the form to be filled out and have the calculations done and the results sent to you in a standard spreadsheet data format.

You can take the CSV or Tab Delimited formatted data and the data merge capabilities of Word or InDesign for example to create your personalized documents. Not sure but both should be able to create PDFs and/or HTML documents (and even EPUBs).

You can also use AppleScript/Automator in macOS, scripting tools in Windows 10/11 to create a production line with automated sanity checks so that only checked documents are sent out.

Then you have Python which runs under macOS, Windows, and Linux. There are many more OSs so many other opportunities to automate.

And that doesn't even mention what you can do in the Cloud.

AWS, MS Azure, Google Cloud Platform, IBM Cloud, etc. with many other SaaS vendors offer customizable solutions for just about any data process solutions you care to invent.

Many of these are free for development with metered computing when needed to start work.

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I mean years ago you could say Cars are here to stay (GM Ford), so are mainframes computers (IBM), so are washing machines and jet engines and locomotives(GE).

And you be right!.

What happens is competition comes in, technology changes even though the old Tech is still around competition drops the profit margins. Cloud computing is going to be a commodity eventually like a hard drive with cut-rate prices. Will they make money 10 years from now absolutely but so does IBM selling main frames.

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IBM looks better at the moment. Yes, MSFT is embedded at the enterprise level on the user/developer side. On the deployment side, that's primarily Red Hat (which IBM now owns).

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Bro look at ibm, intel, bear sterns, etc.

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Imo there are to ways to 'win' the system and reach a wealthy status. The first way is about breaking out the system and is just represented by entrepreneurs. Anyway, when you run against a wall, what are the chances to actually break it? Well it depends on your own skills and abilities like calculating the right force to apply and the right path to follow, but there will be always a lucky component based un unpredictable factors. Actually, in this case there are few chances to actually break the wall/system and reach success, the large amount of tryers will only crash their heads and break their bones. The ones that succeed in the achivment will say that this will be a reachable goal and that anyone can do it, but it's not so simply, even not impossible. All the richest men in the world were not born in rich families, but anyway their parents had the chance to support them and invest in their success: Bill gates' mom suggested to IBM to ask to her son for its softwares furthermore she allowed his son to frequent a prestigious school that offered to its students the opportunity of use a pc, Jeff Bezos started Amazon with a loan that his parents gave him, Elon Musk and his brother lunched their first service thanks to the money of their father. Other richest men really made their fortune from nothing like Steve Jobs, Jack Ma or Larry Ellison. Anyway, at the beginning I said that there is always a second way: riding the system; this path consists in an alternative to the entrepreneurs' model, that is finding a well-paid jobs that will guarantee you high well-paid salaries, for example working as an engineer, a doctor a financial analyst for an hedge fund or stuff like that. At the same time, you will invest an amount of your earnings in an investment plan, maybe some etfs based on s&p500 or some private fund. In long term you will reach your wealth and become financial indipendent. This second way is the one chosen from the ones that follow the so called f.i.r.e. movement, and his surely more safe but also more focused on a long-term perception, you will have to wait for years or also decades. The first way is less more safe, but if you will be some of the ones who gets the goal starting from zero, that is actually hard but not totally impossible, you will reach your financial indipendece in much less time. That's all on the single individual mindset, his risk appetite and, I feel to add to the list, the environment where he lives and the people he associates with.

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You in 1980: "So all of a sudden they're removing General Motors, Ford, IBM and General Electric from the heavy weight in your VOO?"

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IBM, speaking of companies we should absolutely short. They make shit and are shit

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All the engineers over from India on temporary work permits at IBM when I worked there would go to Ikea together after work and eat the equivalent to Costco cheap meals. IBM Canada absolutely preys on temp foreign workers and pays them peanuts.

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Ye but what is medium risk? Tech is usually high risk. Maybe look IBM (cloud computing etc.). AMD is great stock - I already earned a lot on it. You got NVDA, obviously great pick even has small dividends.

Then, if you are really into g.cards, INTC, opening 4-5 production facilities. NVDA looking for partnership in future, USA has microchip act. That could be next great pick. Since, I guess republicans will win next elections which will strenghten investing in domestic production. (Im on other part of world so you could know more).

If you wanna go really WSB mode - TSLA. Great car, great CEO, WSB favorite, large volume, increasing market, increasing public investment in green energy. Maybe its not too late to join in.

So, if you really want some value - i had IS (ironsource) - mobile game marketing platform from Israel. Now its really undervalued at 2.80$ (it was trading over 10$ last year). Pretty new one, more risky as there is a lot of competition.

Hmmm.... what did I have more. Ah yess, the GOOG. Alphabet. Whatever name is. Trading at 2300$. I mean. Yea.

I would stay away from Meta, fb, twtr, nflx and adbe. They already hit their highs and competition is comming to get em.

What else can you look. Amazon, shopify, and other platforms are great ofc. I do not know how good will they perform as it is growing market with lots of competition.

From all of this mentioned - my top picks are AMD and IS. You can check NU - Warren Buffet pick for financial technology. Affirm also good pick.

Last but not least U (unity) and MU. I know its maybe too much chipmaking list but MU seems fine. Unity - well - everybody knows Unity, new age shit that I hate but it is the future.

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Surprised by all the confident “no” responses.

These recent ipo’s and high-risk “disruptive” stocks that haven’t even turned a profit are the first to sell off at the beginning of a correction or bear market.

This doesn’t mean that ARKK’s dump alone confirms a bear market, but it adds weight in support of more pain to come on the markets.

Look at the dotcom bubble. All of the “innovative” internet of things stocks sold off at a much faster pace than profitable and more reliable stocks like IBM and MSFT.

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IBM is leading in b2b services and governmental services and infrastructure. We just dont see them much because they sold all end consumer business units

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What if I percieve external factors that don't line up with these multiples?

For example, years ago, IBM was behind the Mao. Technology behind all three games consoles. Later, it was AMD?

IBM basically laughed all the way to the Bank, while everyone else seemed to be looking at their spreadsheets paying no attention to what IBM was doing for the gaming sector.

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AQN CNI BAM VZ IBM INTC

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I think the difference hinges on that "organic" quality of the late 1990s bubble. By "organic," I mean that it's the kind of bubble that forms when a new technology comes along that really does transform society. At first there's a huge misallocation of capital, but the vast pile of cash allows the leading companies to lay down an infrastructure for the next generation.

The massive valuations in the 90s allowed Microsoft and Cisco and Intel to create the foundation for Facebook, Google and Amazon, not to mention transform the way society itself operates. Same thing happened with railroad companies in the 1880s. A massive bubble formed and ended up bankrupting a lot of people, but at the end of the day, we had railroads that allowed the next gen companies to exist (same thing happened in the 20s with manufacturing and in the 70s with electronics).

Totally agree that the valuations are still too high, and I've also noticed that some of them seem to lose more money even as their revs go up. The companies that survive eventually have to be priced on their actual earnings not the imaginary future ones. Microsoft is a classic example of a stock that used to be priced as a growth name (like Zoom) but eventually had to be priced as a value one (like IBM).

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> Not sure if that’s a simple mistake, a Freudian slip or just a joke.

None of the above. It was intentional. And I absolutely would argue they are no longer worthy of the Aveo um. Never really considered a video rental service to be the strongest of hyper growth play and, as we see, it’s pretty obvious they have no moat…

And I would further argue that the rest have a tremendous growth runway ahead of them… as evidenced by recent earnings reports.

Apple is still absolutely demolishing even the most bold of analyst reports.

Amazon is hitting a rough patch with their e-commerce branch but is investing billions into the logistics of being the means of premier production, sales, and delivery in that sector.

AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT are all in the infant stages of their cloud services. A segment that alone likely justifies their forward P/E’s.

And with all the above mentioned companies… you can likely ask “what’s next” as none of them have plans to sit stagnant and go with what currently works.

No, I don’t think they’ll go the way of IBM. And yes, I think at multi-trillion dollar valuations they each (sans NFLX) have a surprising amount of growth ahead of them. You do t have to agree… that’s what makes investing.

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Funny you say it’s not likely FAAMG stocks will be replaced as you’re replacing the n with an m. Not sure if that’s a simple mistake, a Freudian slip or just a joke. Whatever the case may be, I don’t think anyone would argue that NFLX is no longer FAANG worthy, FB FAANG status is hanging by a thread, and AMZN has been a disappointment for anyone still holding it from 2 years ago. I’m not saying these AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOGL and similar companies aren’t going to “be around” as people like to point out. I’m not saying they’re not going to remain hugely profitable. I’m saying you can’t expect the kind of returns they’ve produced for the last 10 years. The stock prices have more than priced in massive future growth. While they may remain hugely profitable, you can’t expect the same growth from now multi trillion dollar companies. The already inflated stock prices could easily be stagnant compared to other tech in the coming years. Profitability is one thing, growth is another. IBM is a perfect example of that.

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I mean, he’s right… Amazon’s share price underperformed long before the recent market crash. But… comparing it to IBM is very disingenuous, in my opinion.

Comparing the top stocks of today to the top stocks of 20 years ago is a fallacy. Sure… something could replace AAPL and AMZN just like something replaced IBM and GE. But is it that simple? Do companies rise and fall along the same linear timeline like clockwork? Is the literal ecosystem of today’s that has consumers buying more and more similar to the engagement of these companies from 2 decades ago?

I don’t think it’s that simple… and while someone could pop up and displace all the FAAMG stocks… I don’t think it’s as likely as it has been in the past.

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GE and IBM. Get on those you cool hip rockstar millennial you

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IBM is a 120B company and they haven't been relevant for 2 decades at least. 2030s isn't that far away.

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Legacy tech is full of these opportunities - sometimes officially part time, sometimes super coasty. Nobody is looking to meaningfully change their legacy database for example, just needs to keep it running until they can get off of it (in ten years, hopefully).

The downside is that eventually everyone does get off these systems, and your career ends. But that can be a decade or more in my experience. Shit how long did Novell stuff hang around after it was 'dead'? I'm sure a bunch of random Oracle, IBM, etc. enterprise Middleware will be the same way.

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Right. They could be the next IBM.

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Old dude on CNBC wants you to buy INTC and IBM. I'd rather lose money than eat dinner at 4 pm.

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From what I've been reading, they do more than just pay people to shop groceries. They offer grocery services/products to other grocery stores as well. Catering stuff, smart carts, will do deliveries for other companies, run their websites, sells ads. They are becoming more and more of a tech company, they are even hiring really compeitively right now in tech.

Looking at what limited financials we do have, their business is growing and they turned a profit at some point (don't know if it's continous). Other gig apps (at least food delivery related ones) haven't all turned a profit

The company has growing revenue (almost $2B last year) , possibly still profitable and has multiple revenue streams. These kind of companies get a take rate (instacart's is 5-8% maybe), meaning they get a percentage of money based on what's bought. Instacart advantage is that they aren't just selling meals, they sell groceries and things; with groceries alone you are looking at signficant bigger orders, which generally speaking can be better when average orders greatly outweights the fixed costs. A lot of the costs of the actual deliveery are offset by subscriptions, service fees, delivery fees and tipping.

For the future, it looks like the company is looking into building automated warehouses similiar to amazon does for it's many sellers. https://www.warehouseautomation.ca/news-notes-1/2022/3/23/nbajakzgonlv73da1sfjzosfkoppt2

They also seem to want to just sell grocery tech too: https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/19/instacart-acquires-caper-ai-a-smart-cart-and-instant-checkout-startup-for-350m-as-it-moves-deeper-into-physical-retail-tech/

Bought a bunch of tech patents: https://newsroom.ibm.com/2021-02-09-Instacart-Acquires-Over-250-Patents-From-IBM

I mean I don't know if Instacart is worth $24B but they seem a lot more interesting than other gig app services that have never turned a profit, have nothing uniquie, and are worth around as much right now. I'm personally a big fan of the app as a user.

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Looks like a lot of total inflow. Unfortunate, considering I was playing IBM puts hoping the money would just shift a bit back to growth.

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Isn’t that a bit what IBM functions on now?

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