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Gartner, Inc.

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341.95

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-6.59
(-1.89%)
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35.96P/E
36Forward P/E
1.63P/E to S&P500
27.022BMarket CAP
- -Div Yield
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> why job GAINS are "bad" for the fed?

Phillips Curve

> How is employment related to interest rates?

The cost to acquire and retain workers is higher in a tight job market. Higher interest rates makes it harder to afford and maintain payroll. Using interest rates to slow hiring combats a wage price spiral.

> it cant be a very direct or clear relationship IMO

Wage price spiral is very real and has historical precedence. You don't want this scenario to play out in the West.

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I am a bot from /r/wallstreetbets. Your submission was removed because it was either DD or Discussion and not a text post. DD can't be a link or single picture with no explanation.

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As I said. You do t like it. Just keep scrolling. Those who are truly interested in helping and offering recommendations have already done so.

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It’s really easy not to listen to things that don’t benefit you. I did a purge of news sources, i have to go out of my way now to hear something unless it is business news on cnbc or people are talking about it on here. It’s a much better way to operate. The news doesn’t help us in any way usually, its consumption should be thought of as a vice or a bad habit

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I haven’t done any real research on either of them, but right now Walgreens (WBA) has a much lower P/E and higher dividend. CVS seems to have a stronger cash position, which is definitely something, but I’m not sure it’s enough to justify being so much more expensive than WBA.

CVS might be better for long term investors, but I think I would look for a lower price before committing. I’m currently more interested in near term results. If I had to invest in one or the other between CVS and WBA right now, I would pick WBA for the higher dividend and chance to profit in the near term.

RemindMe! 3 months

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Watching this thread with interest! We train businesses to use a simple hiring system, so I'm curious to see whether it will cover all the bases here!

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I think there are many more people who are reading it and that's why it is important to keep explaining things.

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Was the check for the entire amount of the distribution, or was 20% withheld for taxes?

If the latter, you need to deposit the 20% out of your own funds into the IRA within 60 days, or else it is considered a distribution that will trigger tax and penalty.

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S&P 500 on average yields 10% but due to volatility this can be anywhere between -40% and + 60% YoY.

​

If your timing is off it's -40%.

​

For people that invest on margin for example, they might want to stick some in bonds because they are getting returns but are less exposed to volatility. You pay interest on your margin loan but as long as the bonds return more, you are still making money.

​

Also don't forget that S&P500 is not really diversified all that much, during downturns stocks then to have a very high correlation ratio, ie when the market goes down everything goes down.

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This. IONQ has the only one available for commercial use through cloud services and it's barely more powerful than the best regular computer.

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As the title says, someone sent me this from their motivational instagram. I've been lurking here for years and its been very easy to disregard any advice. Why would anybody actually follow what a stranger said online, especially with their irl money. It would be ludicrous.

Like you, I'm also boring and i'd like to keep my money growing, cuz this isn't vegas.

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Wait, this makes no sense. We’re nowhere near a possible stagflation? Like, I fucking hope companies don’t get even greedier and more stupid and raise prices even more. We aren’t even getting wage increases to justify this stupid shit. Just let us get to a liveable wage and be happy with the profits you have. Stop taking advantage of people just trying to live comfortably, because the consequence is making your things unaffordable for too many people for it to be worth it. like, I want to have money to save up, but companies are counting on taking my extra money just because I have it laying around. They justify the extra money as willingness to spend more for something that isn’t worth the price. It fucks over everyone

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It can be used to help build briefs for writers, which can lead to better posts. But I’d be careful with using it to creat long form content.

You’ll end up churning out a bunch of generic, copy/paste assets that don’t stand out. You’ll need to heavily edit these and have an SME look over any assets to help ensure they provide unique value.

Otherwise. You’ll just waste a lot of them and effort posting words on your site no one reads.

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It amazes me how confidently people give incorrect info here.

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Im not a macro bro - can someone explain to me why job GAINS are "bad" for the fed? How is employment related to interest rates? and if it is even at all related, it cant be a very direct or clear relationship IMO

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Or shorted it

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I like blink a lot but their expensive reunion show had That 90’s Show disappointment vibes written all over it

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>Don't document your code correctly, leave breadcrumbs that only you understand, leave important processes undocumented, privately document things outside of typical channels (playbooks! Always write playbooks, never share them).

Sorry, but that doesn't really describe a top performer. A top performer wouldn't be this paranoid, defensive, or protective.

A TRUE top performer can perform, even in a new situation........the ones following breadcrumbs never will be a true top performer, so a genuine top performer doesn't even worry about them.

Only a faux performer behaves like this. And it eventually comes out when they are thrust into a situation where there are no breadcrumbs to follow..........and they ACE IT ANYWAY!

You seem to not really know what separates these 2 types. Oh well.

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it could have just been paper wealth all along and you are the only one losing money.

think of it this way. I start a company that sells 5 apples a year and issue 10 million shares.

I sell 9,999,999 of them to you for $5

but then I sell one share to someone else for $10

you are now worth 100 million dollars.

then that share trades for $5.

you are now worth 50 million dollars.

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Pretty much. Their presentation style it suited for the Tik Tok/Instagram/YouTube short clip type of generation.

​

And we wonder why as a society so many people have adopted ADD. img

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Finance youtubers be like: You are and going to remain poor cause you spend $3 on coffee everyday instead of making it at home meanwhile I spent $2000 on a lunch every Saturday

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Yo, I certainly do NOT agree that it "coalesces". It is higher ATM than it is OTM. Each contract has its own delta and gamma, which are derivatives, i.e. math constructs, and the only thing real in the actual non-reddit world, is the options price and the underlying price.

You are talking with someone who not only has traded options for 20 years, but who has aced a graduate level derivatives class.

And how about your options education and experience?

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I think we're closer to the late 1960s than we are the 1929 market action, but yes, same relatively scenario- unemployment spikes, market crashes and rebuilds multiple times, fed jacks interest rates through the roof, etc.

I'd expect a lot of this kinda stuff over the next decade (while still making a new ATH before a huge crash), and then a very rapid rebound to a new ATH after that.

Over a ~10-15 yr period the SPX basically gained 0, but there was still a shit ton of money to be made in trading it.

https://preview.redd.it/4afdjlq1vdga1.png?width=1443&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=96d01cceacb6d7b851d6d0c43d7e2a35277361a7

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Why was UK getting so much money from the EU? Shouldn't countries like Romania get more money than extracting from this relationship, since they need it more? Shouldn't the EU help mostly it's less funded members?

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Thanks for the promotion! I think it would be fair to receive an increase in pay to accompany this promotion.

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Starbucks stock hasn’t gone up in a decade. It constantly fluctuates between 50-80. Buy Apple instead.

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>Unemployment seems lowest in an overheating economy just about to crash but for some reason, inflation showed up before ultra low unemployment because maybe there is less urgency and desire to work now more than ever.

This is not a mystery. It's the supply chain, full stop, during the pandemic.

International trade was strained. Much of the economy is based on service to the commercial industry, and the pandemic shut that down (even in locations where they didn't shut down this part of the industry took a massive hit because pandemics still influence human behavior).

That resulted in a major imbalance in supply, and as such pricing.

It's amazing how quickly we all forgot about people wiping their assess with coffee filters in 2020. That was because of the breakdown of the commercial market and the inability of the market to retool commercial product to the grocery store. Put bluntly, people started shitting at home more and at the office less, and that put pressure on toilet paper supply.

The same thing was happening everywhere else, just at staggered levels.

I'm a macroeconomist and can definitively say that Bridgewater's CIO is fucking with you.

First of all, Ray Dalio is an ideologue who hires other ideologues. For some people, ideologies about worker power come combined with ideologies around monetary policy, and Dalio is one of those people.

Bridgewater is also an activist investor institution on the side of institutions, which means they're heavily focused on driving margin return in service to corporations. Basically, they have a reason to be out there talking their book and trying to suppress wage growth.

The problem is that there's no mystery here. Real economists could see all of this coming. I predicted our inflationary arc back in March of 2020 just based on impact to the supply chain and wobble in demand post-COVID. It's not because of worker earnings, or even mostly monetary policy, it's due to easily predictable human behaviors.

It's gone on a little longer than I thought due to the war in Ukraine and extended COVID concerns, but it was still predictable.

See here's the problem: In wage/price spiral, you see wages go up FIRST. If you don't get that, you don't have a wage price spiral. It's that simple.

There's no "for some reason" here... wage increases have generally lagged inflation and held under it, meaning that structurally wages can't be responsible for the pressure on the market to cause price inflation.

Also, wage/price spirals are relatively more rare than people like that want you to think. There's a common misconception that any minimum wage raise causes a price spiral but the data shows that they rarely do, usually because they're catching low income earners up to inflation and also because low income earners have spending patterns where they overspend to afford survival, meaning that more income doesn't necessarily lead to equivalent buying pressure.

If you want a good example of a wage/price spiral, housing in San Francisco after the tech industry began to kick off there is a good example... you have a clear connection between wage increases and trailing price increases that prices lots of people out of that market.

This? Not a wage/price spiral. But there sure are a lot of people out there who have a vested interest in suppressing wages who'd like to lie to you and say that it is.

Regarding the participation rate, we're at the median trendline for reduction in the rate going back to 2000... the rate declining has nothing to do with lazy kids taking part time jobs or any crap like that (kids are living at home more for a very simple reason: No one can work in the lower tier of the market and afford a house or rent on their own in most markets now, plus other prices - like energy prices - increasing makes that even harder... this is, again, a trend that is not new), it has to do with the retirement of baby boomers combined with changes to the fabric of the job market post-2008 that reduced the availability of gainful employment and replaced it with service industry jobs.

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>I was able to do it because I am a top performer and continually found ways to make them more money.

That's the bottom line right there. "Found ways to make them more money". (can say the same about saving them a ton of money which translates out the same sometimes.)

A top performer isn't a subjective description. So many people negotiate raises from that standpoint and as a hiring manager, we are sitting on the other side of the negotiating table wondering if we're supposed to clap like we would for our children or grandchildren showing us their latest dance routine.

Performance is provable in dollars and cents. Period.

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FYI I hate turbo tax. Caused me to get audit many years ago. Stopped using it. My situation is different as I don't sell anything. So on that question I'm not sure

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Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.

It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.

Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.

Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.

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YEP .. that is the disappointing part. Like he has tons of money. Do not understand why he need to do it.

But should probably being more clear. He was transparent about what he made from his u tube channel. Not those promotions.

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My cliffs notes I already posted... Just saw this so I am pasting.

.l think Enron caused real utility shortages for California by manipulation of the electric grid management infrastructure that would of been fine without the Enron profiteering sabotage. Interestingly I lived in Los Angeles at the time and we had zero problems because LA actually owned it's plant independently from the state grid.

The other accounting chicanery was when they got approval for "Mark to Market" accounting which realized future projected income from business immediately. The Enron guys then just invented crazy huge future potential numbers to exploit immediately showing corporate profitability.

Next shell companies were created and Enron jumped in bed with some banks using the shell businesses to secure huge loans with guaranteed payments/profits back to the banks. These loans were then funneled back to Enron primary accounts to be used to cover losses/show profitability account assets.

Also, Enron started building a huge plant to supply India electricity then claimed future profits. India could never afford the electricities price as projected and the plant was abandoned after partial construction.

Enron also had 3 floating power plants that they made an illegal deal... Claiming they were sold and collecting payment but under the table it was a disguised loan which meant Enron maintained ownership of the plants and was not clear funds from a profitable sale.

These are the main things I remember...

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Your post has been removed because it is primarily a legal question or discussion (rule 5) which is off-topic for /r/personalfinance. /r/legaladvice can help you determine if you need to contact a lawyer and you may get some basic advice.

While /r/legaladvice can sometimes offer basic advice, talking to a local attorney is the best way to answer any legal questions.

If you have questions about this removal, please message the moderators.

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It’s up almost 100% in a month…

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This actually isn’t bad at all. The interest rate is higher than I’d like, but if you pay extra every month you’ll be alright. Aim to pay it off in 3 years instead. Sooner if you can.

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Kind of on the cutting room floor of a chapter I am writing titled "Market Predictions," which is really about "What the market predicts" and not how to predict the market, but thought it may help you understand.

"The problem with any prediction away from current market prices is that even the best analyst with the best training and tools is just one of the thousands of equally highly educated individuals employing those tools. The market represents all those estimates plus the actions of all other participants, pushing prices toward a collectively determined equilibrium. And anyone who insists theirs is a better prediction than the collectives remains a leap of faith that has yet to be proven. The market may not be correct, but anything anyone else proposes has always proven more unlikely."

Friend of mine, who is a world renowned quant, was significantly more negative about it and used to always say "There is no god that knows the value of any traded asset."

and u/HeyYoChill wasn't being sarcastic, it is exactly what you are suggesting "eliminating a few."

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Aww he can’t afford WSJ to even read it. But he’s happy to be on WallStreet effing Journal.

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Right it's not meant to be but it's been made that way over the years. You do way more work on the off chance that you get to go home on time or early while the next non-exempt guy has got nothing to worry about, he'll work slow and steady, drag out the work and then put in some overtime. Rinse and repeat for a year and the dude is making more than you or almost as much as you.

Unless the salary is decently high (like 40% or so higher than non-exempt's salary) then it's worth it otherwise it isn't.

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Do you have I report my inventory? Last year we didn't. I swear it didn't ask using turbo tax. I have a hard time thinking I just skipped over it.

Say we sell hats.. We have 500 hats listed for sale and in stock. That counts as inventory doesn't it? What about the materials we have that we could make hats with. That doesn't count as inventory does it?

Last year we used the cash method?

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Peter is an Austrian economy follower or practitioner. They believe that governments who follow John Maynard Keynes principles with giving the economy a jolt through money printing will eventually cause multiple bubbles or a massive bubble or imbalance that will eventually pop or correct. I got introduced to Peter's ideology when he predicted the housing collapse and the method by which it would happen. A broken clock is right twice a day. Peter is a broken clock but will eventually be right again in my humble opinion.

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Hoarding causes artificial scarcity, scarcity causes price increases. In the world of business you push the market (price point) until it breaks. It raises the "floor" price from old norms. Also it's cyclical in most goods over long time periods. Right now it's trucks and eggs. I can tell you with certainty the truck shortage was cause by businesses needing tax write offs after they collected unnecessary covid relief money. Wasn't a 3/4 ton to be had in the last 15 months weird huh the 3/4 ton weight qualifies as a tax write off in the US

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Your post has been removed because it is primarily a legal question or discussion (rule 5) which is off-topic for /r/personalfinance. /r/legaladvice can help you determine if you need to contact a lawyer and you may get some basic advice.

While /r/legaladvice can sometimes offer basic advice, talking to a local attorney is the best way to answer any legal questions.

If you have questions about this removal, please message the moderators.

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Yea it's essentially dessert. I just drink peppermint mochas from there during winter but it definitely doesn't wake me up that sugar rush puts me to sleep.

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You say “we.” Do you have a Wife or family that can help pay for it? Or is this all on you?

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Actually no, look at the annualized rate. It’s already negative.

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Yep, it’s rare that people stop exhibiting the risky behavior that made them those gains in time to stop themselves from losing said gains.

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I can't understand why most people in this subreddit don't get this. It just hopium after hopium, higher rates r coming.

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This is why hardly anyone was buying I-bonds before 2021: they are a decent place to park cash so it doesn’t lose value to inflation, and they can never lose nominal value, but in more normal conditions they don’t have much expected premium. The nominal rate on I-bonds might start to come up again (it was over 3% in the 1990’s) but we’ll just have to see about that.

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More like the market only moves in the direction bank interest, that is why the stocks move the same way. It is the same entity adding or removing from their position

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Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.

It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.

Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.

Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.

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I think Enron caused real utility shortages for California by manipulation of the electric grid management infrastructure that would of been fine without the Enron profiteering sabotage. Interestingly I lived in Los Angeles at the time and we had zero problems because LA actually owned it's plant independently from the state grid.

The other accounting chicanery was when they got approval for "Mark to Market" accounting which realized future projected income from business immediately. The Enron guys then just invented crazy huge future potential numbers to exploit immediately showing corporate profitability.

Next shell companies were created and Enron jumped in bed with some banks using the shell businesses to secure huge loans with guaranteed payments/profits back to the banks. These loans were then funneled back to Enron primary accounts to be used to cover losses/show profitability account assets.

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I think passive investing in the sp500 might work starting in like 2 years.

But I think that prices now are so absurdly high that buying now and waiting for the longterm won't work, we could be at lower sp500 prices in 10 or 20 years, this could be 1989 japan or 1929 imo, so even across super long time periods I am not bullish on the index. I'll buy the index after a fucking huge crash, I'll be bullish as fuck, I'm no permabear, but I refuse to buy until we see a collosal drop, I don't think buying now and waiting out a dip will work this time. Even over 30 years I don't think we will average 10%, because I suspect the declines in the next 3 years to be extremely terrible.

And I'm scared of this USD. I actually think a declining USD would be pretty bullish, we kinda need the usd to be slowly losing reserve status to keep the bull going. I'm worried the opposite will happen and USD will spike upwards and go way too fucking high and then they'll need to intentionally devalue it like the plaza accords

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I realize most people in this lovely community don’t have much of a memory span, but there was a time was 20% per year was not that surprising. Again I realize that it has been a few years.

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Hmm this is a difficult question to answer. I’d suggest asking the virtual assistant or calling them and asking. If the checking account exists in the same account as your other stuff likely he’ll be able to see it.

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yea, that's what i'm looking for, getting the phone to ring. so you're saying it can be achieved without a website? if yes, how?

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I do have the impression that a lot of times, someone tries to persuade someone to buy or sell assets because they have a stake in it.

Ah no....that would be paranoid...

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  1. Very little for Oxford and Cambridge, they have huge amounts of money, but for the other 130ish Universities in the UK, there's already massive cutbacks due to lack of grants
  2. The government has promised and promised new funding sources, but the current only viable alternative is to beg industry for partnerships doing research at a fraction of the cost of what their in house research teams would do it for.
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If you had a mortgage and received a windfall would you pay it off?

Personally I would not as I think its less risky and more flexible to hoard the money and maintain a mortgage. But there is no wrong answer.

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for the love of god please make it happen

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"Say it again, Daddy!"

"Disinflation."

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It's just the clickbait title just are dramatic. When you watch the videos, most of the time it's either something totally different and is only brushing what is implied by the title, or the content actually is about the opposite and you just got clickbaited

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Also it's not 19200 at 19%, first year is only 960, second year 1920 etc....

The maths make zero sense but I can't be bothered fully testing it

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Yeah it’s like majority of YouTube become for room temperature iq audience. It’s like watching junk food you may feel great first but then come withdraw

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Scarface didn't work at a deli. It was a food truck.

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Sell it all to him, tell him to find another partner who’d purchase the other half, and then you start another company

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There's a wide misconception in our society that LLCs somehow magically just let you do all this fancy business stuff. It's just not how it works with the IRS at all and people don't get that concept. You see the same stuff with section 179 or the "I just write it off".

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It's nice! I don't ski, but I know we have some of the best snow in the country. We have tons of outdoor recreation with some of the most iconic national parks in the country (Arches and Zion are most famous). The mountains are gorgeous and driving in pretty much any direction is filled with beautiful sights (I live 15 minutes from a beautiful canyon with a very scenic drive that connects to another canyon).

Beaches are cool, but they get old really quickly (sand gets literally everywhere). I love visiting the beach, but I prefer to live in the mountains because hiking, mountain biking, and camping are much more frequent activities for me than a beach day. I grew up near Seattle so I get part of the appeal of living near the ocean (I miss great seafood, temperate weather, and boats), but I also think coastal living is overrated. I have family in LA and I absolutely hate visiting for any length of time.

Come visit us in the Rockies sometime to see if you like it. Or perhaps visit somewhere in the Appalachians if that's more accessible to you.

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His new videos all say the same shit anyway, the thumbnails are just clickbait. Here is his formula:

<Clickbait title>

Hey guys, see that title? Dumb isn't it. Don't worry though, it's not what's really happening. Just found something contrary to talk about for a few minutes.

Like my video!

Here's the real advice. Invest in S&P little by little over time.

There might be a sponsor or affiliate link that makes me a little richer. Click that too.

Did I mention like and subscribe? Cool. See you again tomorrow for the saaaaame shit!

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Salary is not a bad thing, depends on the company. Also the added benefits make it worthwhile.

If you happen to work way more what you would've made as a non-exempt, it's time to find another job tho

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I dated a tranny it was weird

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If this post doesn't follow the rules report it to the mods.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

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>I very strongly believe the US economy will go down (already is) and I also very strongly believe liquidity will continue declining and be a huge problem (money supply already dropping).

Short term yes, long term no, unless the US fails as a country to maintain it's AA+/AAA credit rating and the USD drops from being the worlds reserve currency.

The 7-10% returns of the S+P500 Index are typically annualized over 30+ years, not YoY.

Short term (12-18 months) I agree with you that we'll see a decline, as we're still vastly past where we should be (~3200-3600) based off both 7 (since 2016, high end) and 15 (2009, low end) year trends. A new trend did start in 2020 which puts the bottom higher @ closer to ~3650/3700, so I'd expect this to be a short term PT for a bottom (SPY 360-365) unless we create a new trend.

QT hasn't really started either, with the FED only having shed ~600B from it's hyper inflated 9T balance sheet since it's peak last April. They still have nearly 2.5T more to go by 2025, or around 100B/mo if they want to reach their target.

Lots of pain in the near term, especially with the job market ridiculously strong still. If unemployment spikes the FED may be forced to pivot on rates or at least hold off on QT for a while. Current rally is likely a fallacy/massive trap/shorts taking profits and repositioning from last year- the macroeconomic conditions don't make any sense for us to be back into a bull market yet.

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Had this girl come to my hotel from tinder and she was beat and it took like 30 mins to kick her out img

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Put it to music and you've got a tune.

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I’m on year 2 and I make 40k. I really didn’t learn anything my first year. Mostly was doing FB and Google Display ads. I started at like 36k. We were bought out by a much larger company and now I have 80 clients, I do GTM/GA, Broad Search, Dynamic Inventory Search, Dynamic Inventory Search, Display Campaigns, Use Salesforce, Fluency, Basecamp, Trello, do complete set up for clients, meeting with clients who want to see reports for the previous month/year, targeting, etc. Ive learned a lot over this last year and have a great boss but I’m absolutely being taken advantage of for my current pay. I’ve had a few interviews with some other companies and I recently received a second interview request. The hard part is that I work fully remote, my team is amazing now, my boss is super cool, my head head boss is like non existent unless we’re doing reviews, I also have unlimited PTO so it’s hard to decide to leave or not. I really need to make more money though. Just nervous to go.

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My cousins have got a lawyer of their own on this situation to split the property equally as far as I'm concerned.

and yeah -- I agree, it would be best to use the funds to aid with my educational goals somewhere else, cheers.

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It's only unlimited if they have no idea what a trailing stop is?

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Rich people start charities and then donate allot of their money to it. No taxes have to be paid from the charity. The donator is still in charge of the money, even though he doesn't technically own it anymore

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It looks more dramatic than it is? The prises didn't change all that much.

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I can say with confidence that the answer is no, you do not need to link an external account. I opened with a Checkings first and just signed up for direct deposit. Then opened a savings afterwards and was able to transfer from checking to it.

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This is the best comment on this post. Thanks for making it so clear!

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I was being a bit rude/curt with my response, my bad. But basically, everything you were told about withholding is wrong. Your brother was wrong to suggest 0 or 1 allowances, there isn't such thing as maximum amount of taxes to withhold, and your employer shouldn't have done what they did.

You should not have put 0, in fact, you probably should not put 1 either. For a single person without complicated taxes, you should have probably put 2, which you would see if you read the form instead of listening to your brother, who is probably not a CPA.

As for the maximum amount, it just doesn't exist. If your paycheck is $1,000 then you can have all $1,000 withheld for taxes. Putting down 0 allowances isn't going to do that, but it is possible.

So really, just read a W-4 online. It's one page of instructions. If you have one job at a time, skip step 2. It's all fairly simple.

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Errr nope?! 🤷‍♀️ why would you even consider it

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Yeah Gazprom would‘ve been a nice long term investment in 2022 img

China‘s gonna dump on Monday, like it or not

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I think Nike focused on one market, now that covid money is gone and by qtr 3 tax returns will be gone it will take a couple of qtrs for them to reimagine the brand back to the original markets.

They pissed a ton of people off who now refuse to buy Nike as it now has a cultural issue attached we have never seen Nike being rejected culturally.

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I'm getting there, last week of trading I did pretty well getting better entries and not drawing down as much in trades. I don't look at it as institutions and firms stop hunting me, I see it more as... Where I placed my stop, other people also placed their stops maybe we'll before I did, but others also placed a limit buy there as well, so they aren't hunting my stop... I just placed my stop where orders needed to get filled so really that should have been my entry. So to me, the real problem was I was out of sinq with what was going on, I got in too early and didn't do well enough to snipe a better entry.

These markets are efficient and that's part of their efficiency, stop orders gotta get filled, so do limit buys. It's not big firms/other traders vs me in my eyes, it's me vs myself. I'll never blame anybody else not even big firms on a losing or break even trade, I just gotta get better entries more than I get bad entries, it's a bad entry if where it makes sense to place my stop gets hit. The buy/sell plus the stop and TP is the whole trade, so if it hits my stop...but then goes in the direction I needed, yeah I had the direction right..but it was a bad trade overall because there wasn't enough room for my stop.

Sometimes it's just a bad trade... Like on a long for instance with a 4 points SL 10 point TP , it gets to my stop and take me out and pull back up some points.. like maybe 5 or 6 points, but then turn around again and dump 15 points, did I get stop hunted or was that just a bad trade? What if I wasn't disciplined and seen it was gonna hit my stop and then I move it another 4 points away to "give it more room" which I never do, just an example. What that would mean is Instead of taking a 4 point loss when it gets hammered down 15 points, I'd take like a 8 point loss. It's all about perspective man. I don't move my stop unless it's to break even or if I'm well in profit and trailing it up, it's there to stop the bleeding and there for risk on trade. Once that trade is on, it's on.

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It's like comparing apples to rockets

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It's the same problem people have with the VIX:

Whenever the VIX gets low, people say "Oh, this means the market's going to decline" and then get surprised when it doesn't.

When you zoom out too much on a graph, it can be easy to miss the nuance of timing in the graph. Obviously, when we hit lows on a percent-oriented metric, the tendency is for those things to mean revert at some point, but the question is "when and how much?"

The backtesting introduces a bias that leads people to questionable outcomes regarding timing and certainty because there's significant parts of the relationship between the events causing the change in behavior and the other connected parts of the market missing from the chart.

Yes, we're at a low. At some point it'll likely go up... could be tomorrow. Could be 2029.

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I knew it!!!

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Wasn’t able to give much context due to character limitation. Marketing because I have specialised in it during my bachelors, and it’s something that has a bit more of creativity involved which is important to me.

3-4 years down the line as the company I am working with I want to at least spend 2 years. Also visa requirements.

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Happened to me took me 3 service people and 1 manager to fix it, overall 4 months of my effort with about 3 hours of total phone time maybe more

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Two questions.

  1. Short version: can I put $6k into a trad IRA for 2022, deduct it, and expect to get about $1320 back on my taxes?

I already did my taxes this year but didn't contribute to an IRA yet. My AGI is under 73k. The 6k would contribute would all fall within the 41k to 89k tax bracket which is 22%.

6000 * .22 = $1320

If I amended my taxes I should get that back right? What am I missing

  1. Short version: if I rolled previous traditional IRA contributions to Roth, does that count towards the total IRA contribution limit?

I was reading about the traditional to Roth IRA ladder, where you contribute to a traditional, retire early, and roll a bit of it annually over to the Roth when your income is lower and you would pay less on taxes into the Roth. Would discount towards the contribution limit? I guess it wouldn't matter if you are retired, you shouldn't have more income to invest

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Apple is not like either of those three. Enron was a fraud. Kodak didn’t adapt. Sears got complacent. (I am over-simplifying but the bigger point is that Apple is a staggering business that spits out ~100bn net income with just $10bn capex. It gushes money. 98% satisfaction rates on latest iPhone family. 2/3 of new Apple watch purchases were people who bought their first Apple Watch. Etc.

And companies do stay in the top 10 for 10+ years. Microsoft is one example that comes to mind.

Not trying to be too much of a stickler. Hope you don’t take it like I’m coming at you personally. Just wanted to make those notes.

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Sounds like you are doing the right thing,

HYSA or CD is easiest.

US Treasuries are another option. A short term1-6 month ladder would have slightly higher rate and no state income tax, but it is a complex vehicle compared to HYSA and would at best help you gain a percent of interest.

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I decided to open up a credit card and pay it off from my emergency fund and replenish my EF with my income + tax return.

I don't like the idea of taking a payment plan with something I could pay off and forget about. I'd rather have the HSA continue to grow.

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Extremely low unemployment rate can be devastating for an economy. It's basically a sign that everybody's working 2+ jobs just to eat. It fucks the labor market.

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Yup I work in finance and ppl were making $300/week off some unemployment, how in the lords name could they live off that? Politicians play the manipulation game of making people think their pie is being eaten by others when it’s the damn government blowing money on wars, weapons and wasting covid resources (the tonnes of water and masks that were left to be destroyed)… pure wastage and apathy due to all the political crap

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"where delta is by far the primary influence indication on value change of the option when the underlying moves."

Delta is primary, and gamma is secondary, as in the second derivative of option price with respect to price of the underlying....

And no, there is no such thing as "coalescing" of gamma....it is simply higher ATM then it is OTM.

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That's why it is interesting to see what is happening in this space in upcoming months because it will be one of the biggest lesson in the history of corporate governance in my honest opinion.

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