Lennar Corporation
LEN
NYSE84.86
I also don't think the impact on interest rates is NOT priced in for builders. Especially when considering the recent uptick in cancelations. I got LEN 2/23 & 5/23 PUTS, ITB 4/23 PUTS, and DHI 2/23 PUTS.
I’ve got LEN 6/23 & 1/24 puts
Imagine being a $LEN shareholder and watching the mark to market adjusted EPS.
Nah, you were singing that pop song from LEN
I just have puts on all the big home building players…DHI LEN...
Last weekend I ran an algorithm looking for stocks with low to reasonable valuations, with strong to stable growth prospects. Below are the raw results. Next step is to perform a qualitative analysis to weed out stocks with bad management, low growth industries, lack of competitive advantage, etc.
F
VALE
GOOG
RIO
VZ
LEN
CTSH
AMZN
GOOG
CSX
SIVB
PHM
LNC
BIO
DHI
LEN
Buy LEN. But it has more downside after Q4
Were talking mental health care, but if you want to change the subject since you can't back it up...
War on drugs is definitely controversial especially after its "failure" I don't think you understand how bad drug use was in the 80's though. Something had to be done, ignoring it wasn't going to do anything. We're basing judgement on policies with modern understanding of addiction and drug use, not what was available during the 70's and 80s.
It really started with LBJ in the 60's with the Reorganization Plan of 1968, not Nixon although he did widely support and expand on it. Ford and Carter supported Nixon's policies and continued programs based on his polices. Reagan and Bush are modern poster childs for the movement, however, the acts that made up the bulk of policy were widely bipartisan. The Anti Drug abuse act of 86 was authored by a Democrat and passed 392-16 and 97-2, heavily popularized by the public overdose of Len Bias.
Iran Contra is definitely a blight on our history and not really a controversial subject as most are in agreement in this.
This bear Got 05/2023 puts in homebuilders $DHI and $LEN, going to hibernate now and wake up with spring gains.
All of them. DHI, PHM, LEN, GRBK, LGI.
XHB is a homebuilder ETF.
ITB is a home construction ETF.
None of them deserved their pops today. 2023 is going to be brutal for that industry. BRUTAL. Costs are up, land prices are up, new home supply is up, mortgage rates are up, mortgage demand has plummeted, rents (competition) are beginning to fall, existing home prices (competition) are falling, cancellations on existing contracts are through the roof, the cost to buy a new home is insane--no one can afford to buy in 6 months when we don't have jobs (I think I read that it would take a $230,000 annual income to afford to buy the median home today).
This is not financial advice. It's easy to find this out by reading a few articles.
PUTS on DHI and LEN!
That's it. Loading on Homebuilder puts (DHI, LEN, TOL) 3, 6 months out. DGAF. Volcker crashed homebuilders and JPOW coming with the double hammer. LA proves American's don't need homes, they need tents. Calls on Tent builders!
The major homebuilders (DHI, LEN, PHM, etc) made so much money in this last cycle, none of them are going bankrupt. They might slow land deals or wait to break ground on new communities, but none of them have any significant debt coming due...they all recapitalized last year when rates were low. Plus, this time around they mostly bought cheap *options* on land at low prices, so they can walk away from those instead of selling great property at a fire sale. Not saying prices can't fall further, and you're smarter than most using stops, we still have many years of millennial pent up demand (4-9 million homes, or 3-7 years of inventory to build) to satisfy. Be careful out there.
Holding a bunch of 11/11 puts on INTC, UAL, LEN, basically no choice but to hold on and pray for hot CPI next week. Was hoping for a fraction of a second to bail this AM, but it ain’t happening
Although demand is slowing, many of these builders still have a backlog.
>Lennar (LEN):
Backlog of 25,734 homes - consistent with prior year; backlog dollar value increased 8% to $12.9 billion
>
>Toll Brothers (TOLL):
Backlog value was $11.2 billion at third quarter end, up 19% compared to FY 2021’s third quarter; homes in backlog were 10,725, up 1%.
The demand slowing down is likely a temporary problem which will be resolved over the next year or two.
There's a growing number of people who are qualified for the home they want (and they have their deposits ready), but they've decided to put their home building on hold until there's more certainty surrounding interest rates. There's also a healthy group of people who were in the market but have dropped out as interest rates have moved into an uncomfortable range for their home purchase. Additionally, I've talked to several folks who are currently in a house that they don't love, but they are staying put until interest rates come down to a number that is more in-line with their expectations.
There's a lot of demand for these builders, but that demand is being muted by the current interest environment.
INTC, LEN, UAL, F
Am I a bad person to want you all laid off so more unemployment can drop housing prices further? DHI and LEN 05/2023 $50 puts
So… I can’t tell if you’re talking about the US equity markets or other markets. It’s not quite right to pin them all together.
First, there are companies that pay 10%+ dvds. IEP does and DVN trades down to it and will likely give you another special dividend which will look more less like 10%. Also companies return capital by buying back stock( see the entire energy and fertilizer sectors). In quite a few cases at this point the share buyback plus the divided gets you pretty close to 10%.
Housing in the US has stalled, but intriguingly homebuilders are doing fine, not repeating the mistakes of years past. PHM just reported an unbelievable quarter and LEN reported decently as well. All is based on prices sold for new homes and the decline in raw materials that raised their margins.
The equities market (individual stocks) do have many gems that are undervalued. People just have to do the actual work. The indices, are largely biased toward Tech though so it looks awful if you’re a novice to the equities markets.
Alternatively, you have rates such that there are lower risk ways to create the needed yield in the bond markets. This helps most banks tremendously with higher Net Interest Margins. Also, it takes pressure off of pension liabilities and means that corps, for the first time in ages, largely don’t have to worry about that expense.
For the USA, you still have the stimulus bill in 2023… not the helicopter payments, but the one that infrastructure spend. That is finally trickling through this quarter, mostly it’s early next year.
Inflation is bad if wages do not keep up. This far they have. Also, we are a raw material rich nation, so largely speaking it helps some parts of our Econ. Not like the Europeans. They are screwed.
Hope that helps.
SUNDAY MIXTAPE
Orbital - Halcyon On and On
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV-hSgL1R74
La Roux - In for the kill
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXtATeQ7GKg
and if you liked that, here's the best remix (gets great at 4:00!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U0k_VkeZw0
The Veronicas - "Untouched"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKqriTRYInY
Republica - Ready to Go / Drop Dead Gorgeous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgffRW1fKDk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRtFnxwmM3M
Sophie Ellis Bextor - Murder on the dancefloor / Me & My Imagination (really nice)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAx6mYeC6pY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip76O6g3hZs
Lipps Inc. - Funkytown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPF59O7_qw0
Chemical Brothers - Hey Boy Hey Girl / Let Forever Be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpKCqp9CALQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5FyfQDO5g0
Antiloop - In My Mind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5sQYUFGAc0
Lasgo - something
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVWbFaXlRJw
Cappella - U Got 2 Let The Music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3KihWJRh6U
Len - Steal my Sunshine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1fzJ_AYajA
Olive - You're not Alone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4oZdUV-G-Y
Opus III - It's a Fine Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r66B1npleQQ
S - Express - Theme from S Express
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpeRShWMdYM
Utah Saints - Something good
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7hlMR-Xn9I
Aurosonic vocal trance (2 hours)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABDHiwJXTag
EDIT: bonus tracks
Sneaker Pimps - 6 Underground
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuwfe3DRJzE
St. Vincent - Fear The Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v7rkdDldF4
Kim Wilde - Kids in America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BYKpQ_6GbM
COMPUTERY STUFF SUNDAY MIXTAPE
La Roux - In for the kill
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXtATeQ7GKg
and if you liked that, here's the best remix (gets great at 4:00!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U0k_VkeZw0
The Veronicas - "Untouched"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKqriTRYInY
Republica - Ready to Go / Drop Dead Gorgeous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgffRW1fKDk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRtFnxwmM3M
Sophie Ellis Bextor - Murder on the dancefloor / Me & My Imagination (really nice)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAx6mYeC6pY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip76O6g3hZs
Lipps Inc. - Funkytown (1980)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPF59O7_qw0
Chemical Brothers - Hey Boy Hey Girl / Let Forever Be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpKCqp9CALQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5FyfQDO5g0
Antiloop - In My Mind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5sQYUFGAc0
Lasgo - something
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVWbFaXlRJw
Cappella - U Got 2 Let The Music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3KihWJRh6U
Len - Steal my Sunshine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1fzJ_AYajA
Olive - You're not Alone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4oZdUV-G-Y
Opus III - It's a Fine Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r66B1npleQQ
Felix - Don't you want me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj8xF2bnxp0
S - Express - Theme from S Express
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpeRShWMdYM
Utah Saints - Something good
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7hlMR-Xn9I
Aurosonic vocal trance (2 hours)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABDHiwJXTag
EDIT: bonus tracks
Sneaker Pimps - 6 Underground
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuwfe3DRJzE
St. Vincent - Fear The Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v7rkdDldF4
Shorting LEN or DHI has been a nice ride this year.
I think Open will go under. I have Zillow puts as well. Len, ITB, and DHI are the home builder puts I got.
KBH, LEN, TOL
That's not an accurate statement, but
It's highest they've been in over 15 years, not anywhere near record highs.
I think you're on to something with LEN puts tho. Which strike/date are you looking at?
With mortgage rates at literal record highs, LEN has no business being above $70 a share. Puts at open.
Robinhood shit off the buy button to save their own company after they got margin called. Citadel reached out to ask whether Robinhood was going to shut off the buy button because as a market maker they try to remain delta neutral and GME was making that task extremely difficult. Unlike what the SuperCult followers say, there is zero evidence that Len Griffin or anyone else instructed Robinhood to shut off the buy button
if len(DD.text) > 500:
buy(DD.stock)
LEN when housing falls apart
It was Len. RIP
Wasn't Len. It was Hal and several others.
Len Sassaman and Hal Finney
TLT was the easiest short call to make. It was a big part of my short portfolio along with large positions in sqqq and sdow.
Traded few individuals stocks in housing LEN and PHM mainly but they haven't moved to downside as much as i expected. I will close these positions shortly.
LEN and REZ puts for days
LEN
LEN puts
Its so fucked. The whole market is red and I chose a POS that ends green on the week. Wtf. Its a home builder... by all rights LEN should be down 10%. Of the top three largest builders in the U.S. LEN is the only one thats not >5% down since weds. Literally any other housing puts would have printed but I chose the fucking stinker. They even had earnings this week and gave TERRIBLE projections and forward guidance. Only downside movement of any significance was pre/AH trading with immediate bounce to green at open so I never had a chance to cash in my puts when they were up for all of a minute or two at open.
My other trade was TSLA 289 puts I sold thursday before close for 100% gain. If I held overnight they were worth almost 2k each by open. Fucking GAWD.
My LEN puts say otherwise. Closed green on the weekly. Lost 85% of my account on those.
Fuck this goddamn bullshit market.
I lost 85% this week going all in on LEN puts.
The motherfucker closed GREEN on the weekly. What in the everloving fuck is this bullshit?
Its a home builder. Even after JPow declaring scorched earth all out war on the housing market, rate hikes, a market wide MASSACRE and im left with a pile of worthless puts a fucking green stock. Pure and utter bullshit. Fuck you all im buying those gay ass 2yr bonds.
I picked the wrong one and it doesn't add up....KBH and LEN both "beat" but somehow KBH reported a FIFTY percent reduction in orders while LEN only showed 17%.....either way I'm in Jan expiration 65 puts, so I'm not overly concerned, as TOL and DHI and others report, along with next month's housing report it should continue to get beat down (i.e. if you havnt started a position I think LEN is prime for puts right now...and I actually might double down with some of my other gains)
LEN beat estimates so everything is fine apparently
LEN
I was going to short KBH but decided to do LEN instead because they had weeklies. God I'm a dumbass
Both KBH and LEN released earnings in AHs
KBH and LEN had their earnings after close.. ☠️
Damn you LEN. Thought for sure today was the day.
Did LEN report? Or tomorrow?
I thought LEN earnings were AH today, but apparently it's at 11am tomorrow. Is it weird to have an earnings call during trading hours?
Remember KBH and LEN earnings call today....
My LEN puts are gonna fucking print so hard tonight.
$LEN puts
$COST and $LEN will lead the way to sub 380
LEN puts for earnings tonight
$LEN earnings tonight and someone dropping 12k contracts on OTM 3DTE puts.
Guidance could be absolute dog shit
Len put and tcom put … let’s see how fucked I get on earnings
I got weekly puts on some housing stocks too. The printed nicely this morning on the new home starts data. Put in a sell order for a solid gain eod, but it wasnt filled because shit volume. Now im stuck holding them for the FED trifling. Could lose my ass or catch alot more gains depending on how rate hikes look. If the market likes the decision I think my GME will print and my LEN puts will be fucked. If we see 100 on the hike then vice versa. So one way or another I think I ended up properly hedged.
Calls on Len and kbh earnings tomorrow
Len and KBH puts.
LEN and KBH earnings tomorrow..
Anyone else bought calls? Real estate is about to moon. 🚀
Praying for my put to print tomorrow on Len and kbh er
LEN reports earnings after hours on Wednesday. This is probably the easiest money I'll ever make. Buy puts today. Home builders are so fucked it's really not even funny.
LEN
IF the fed finally gets serious and unwinds on MBS it might be a good time to enter 3 to 6 month dated puts on homebuilders like LEN
If I have to make picks...
SFIX puts LEN. Puts KBH. Puts COST. Calls FDX. Puts
Not sure RKT, Zillow, Redfin ? Builders (LEN and whoever) report earnings next week.
Damn LEN is that low? Might pick some up as a multi year swing play.
There are a couple of stocks im surprised didnt make the list like homebuilders. DHI PEG is .37 and LEN is .27 immediately came to mind.
I like TOL and LEN
-
solid write-up, ur a homie
-
you have an excellent premise/argument, with the exception of all the facts.. they’re very general of the overall industry and making assumptions on what’s happening in the future, and none of it takes into account anything actually company specific for the ti Jets mentioned. My point in short is that while “Redfin” is putting out vague figures, in reality the majority of these builders mentioned are fully booked at capacity— confirmed projects w/ subs and permitted to break ground—-regardless of whatever takes place during the next 2 years.
-
I’m not disagreeing with your premise— but I def wouldn’t be getting against the big 4(pulte, Len we, DR Horton and toll bros
If you ever get down on yourself about the moves you've made, just remember that in 1986 the Boston Celtics selected Len Bias as the number two over all pick in the draft and then he died of a cocaine overdose two days later.
Thoughts on homebuilders like LEN, TOL, PHM, KBH and DHI? They are all down over 30% off their highs and have P/E ratios in the 3-6 range.
Are they buys? Or should one wait until after we start having positive news to buy them instead of during the fear those stocks have.
2008 was a pretty severe event, Butler shares have already come down some.
Toll Brothers for example, TOL.
On LEN / Lennar, If you want gains, pick closer to at the money.
There are several housing industry exchange traded funds.
Also Explore the history of the member stocks.
XHB is one.
ITB. PKB.
COMPONANTS are listed at ETDDB.COM.
Example.
https://etfdb.com/etf/ITB/#holdings
Here's my Code:
import pandas as pd import numpy as np from pathlib import Path import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def is_tradingday(row): day = row["Date"] return bool(len(pd.bdate_range(day,day)))
def average_performance(day: int) -> int: if day < 1 or day > 31: raise Exception("day number needs to be between 1 and 31") data = pd.read_csv("/Users/Philipp/git/MSCI_World/data/MSCI World Historical Data.csv") string_day = str(day) if len(string_day) == 1: string_day = "0" + string_day dates = data.loc[data.Date.str.contains(pat = string_day + ", " , regex= True)] #Filter trading days dates = dates[dates.apply(is_tradingday,axis=1)] #Convert Change to float dates["Change %"] = dates["Change %"].str[:-1].astype(float)
performance_sum = dates["Change %"].sum()
number_days = len(dates["Change %"])
return performance_sum/number_days
def main(): x,y = [],[] for i in range(1, 32): x += [i] y += [average_performance(i)] print("Day of the Month: {}, AveragePerformance: {}".format(i,average_performance(i))) plt.plot(x,y) plt.axhline(y=0, c="red", label="y=0") plt.show() if name == 'main': main()
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np from pathlib import Path import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def is_tradingday(row): day = row["Date"] return bool(len(pd.bdate_range(day,day)))
def average_performance(day: int) -> int: if day < 1 or day > 31: raise Exception("day number needs to be between 1 and 31") data = pd.read_csv("/Users/Philipp/git/MSCI_World/data/MSCI World Historical Data.csv") string_day = str(day) if len(string_day) == 1: string_day = "0" + string_day dates = data.loc[data.Date.str.contains(pat = string_day + ", " , regex= True)] #Filter trading days dates = dates[dates.apply(is_tradingday,axis=1)] #Convert Change to float dates["Change %"] = dates["Change %"].str[:-1].astype(float)
performance_sum = dates["Change %"].sum()
number_days = len(dates["Change %"])
return performance_sum/number_days
def main(): x,y = [],[] for i in range(1, 32): x += [i] y += [average_performance(i)] print("Day of the Month: {}, AveragePerformance: {}".format(i,average_performance(i))) plt.plot(x,y) plt.axhline(y=0, c="red", label="y=0") plt.show() if name == 'main': main()
Ask len Bias
$len puts
Toll Brothers got rolled with their earnings AH Puts in LEN, DHI and all these builders is free money
I made a week of it w MU/LEN/UPRO/BP and some others, short n long. Good week actually. TWTR is iffy w all the Musk drama so I would do intra day only on that - but there are signs it could fade....
I love when CNBC makes it easy for us: Jim Cramer says to consider buying these 8 stocks now that commodity prices are down. So, puts (or maybe sell call credit spreads) on TOL, LEN, DIS, WM, HON, F, DASH, and EXPE.
My top five shorts over the next year. CELH, DASH, ULTA, LEN, and TSLA.
First four because I don’t think inflation has caught up with their sales. Last one because lol that evaluation will catch up to it. Too much competition when their PE is based on them taking over the world.
COB 8/2 I said what the hell and added to my positions of PYPL, TQQQ, UDOW, LEN, V, ON, SOXL, SPGI, OXLC, YANG and this morning I will probably get out of all but OXLC and YANG
$LEN down 27% YTD $DHI down 28% YTD $WHR down 29% YTD $BLK down 30% YTD $ELUX down 32% YTD
If you think there'll be a "crash" in housing (40%?) short those.
If you think it's going to be a "correction" in housing (15-20%) as I do, then it's too late. It's basically priced in.
In literally everything except the price of houses
$LEN down 27% YTD
$DHI down 28% YTD
$WHR down 29% YTD
$BLK down 30% YTD
$ELUX down 32% YTD
Yeah, Let us all buy Puts on Lennar (LEN)
What business do you do in relationship to Len?
LEN NERD BURN STINE
Come on LEN. Rally so I can load more puts!!!!
Told you. Free money on LEN July 29 puts. Too late now.
I did this, I just did not ask for money from my friends. Also, I kept the money I made from my house out of the market.
My short RE play, SRS with calls and shares, puts on Open, Puts on IHB, Puts on HXB, Puts on Rocket, Puts on MBB, Puts on LEN, and more to come. All long-dated.
Printing 25% of LEN puts positions @ 60% profit.
It has not gone down as hard yet. Expect the afternoon to be a disaster.
LEN puts looking good but holding them. Housing has to tank.
One of 2 things:
CPI same or higher: Geiser-cum while I watch LEN and other puts go interstellar
CPI lower: Shit on my pants and average down/sell puts like a MOFO.
LEN 2021->2022 - In: "Real estate is hot" Out: "Real estate is not hot"
SPWR 2014->2022 - In: "Solar is hot" Out: "Fuck I lost my ass, damn you Obama"
F 2020->2022 - In: "Stonk is cheap, Ford is big, only go up" Out: "Oops Ford only went down"
COP/CVX/USO 2022->2022 In: "Russia invaded Ukraine? Oil only go up." Out: "Biden told the gas companies to lower their prices and their stock dropped, FML I suck at this I'm just YOLOing Vanguard like the dip shit millennial boomer I am"
UP 24% on LEN puts.
Fellow regards: I did mention yesterday about going for a large (for me) put trade on LEN. Well, I did.
JPM just downgraded LEN this morning and I think the first shoe fell on housing.
If the trade works out, it's swimming pool time
Guys someone please explain $LEN? For the last month!
The pain is coming $LEN $BZH $CSS
My state is oil friendly only. It’s big, red and has someone that rhymes with Len Baxton
RKT I guess. That is the largest traded non bank lender. I had some when they traded at 11 and closed because I'm a bad bear I guess :( Overall housing puts are going to be good. I have KBH. LEN would be a good one too. I'm also double dipping with HD puts. You sort of hit housing and consumer discretionary.
HD, LEN, DHI, KBH, META, WBD, JPM, GS, C, and so many proftibale non tech stocks have crashed. I dont get why people keep trying to dismiss the crash thinking only unprofitable companies are down 25% or more.
My puts on LEN keep getting wrecked. High lumber prices and mortgage rates, looming recession, tract builders should be getting killed.
