Mmm interesting. I never considered non tech mainly because my education, experience is all software and Silicon Valley VCs love software.
Could non tech be a right direction for me? Do you have any business in non tech rn?
mmm thats a good point regarding govy backstop...makes sense haha.
Wow.....mmm, I feel for those people having to live on social security income alone. That must be hard.
Tickers of Interest - TL;DR
Gamma Max Cross
- INTC 03/17 30P for $1.05 or less
- AMD 03/17 85P for $3.50 or less
- MSFT 03/17 255P for $4.95 or less
- PLTR 03/17 8P for $0.45 or less
- PTON 03/17 16P for $1.20 or less
Delta Neutral Cross
- MMM 03/17 115P for $2.80 or less
- XHB 03/17 71P for $1.90 or less
- VLO 03/17 135C for $4.90 or less
- SBSW 03/17 12.5C for $0.75 or less
- UCO 03/17 26C for $1.95 or less
Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better
Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.
This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.
For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.
It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.
The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.
Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle
- If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
- Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
- I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
- The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.
FAQ - Because others have already asked.
- These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
- No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
- Are you entering all these plays?
- No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
- You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
- The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
- Where are the crayons? I only see words.
- Click the links above.
- Have you back-tested this?
- Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
- What is the historical performance?
- The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.88 with a 66% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 60% and 78%. (Stats as of 2023-01-31)
Mmm yeah get that tongue real deep up in there you got this
Mmm ok. One more thing this makes me think of. UBI. Does that mean UBI just makes prices go up with no actual benefit to regular people?
Mmm I get it now. So ultimately interest ties the knot for borrowing to be possible. It incentives the person to pay the loan back because if they don’t, their future loans will have higher interest rates. And it incentives people to borrow by rewarding them with more money. Sound right?
This whole discussion makes me think of how risky student loans are haha. What you’re saying is that there is necessarily always a risk when borrowing because a true 0 interest world would stop people from having the incentive to pay off loans. Therefor those that take out student loans necessarily have to pay back more than they borrowed and if they can’t they will be stuck with higher interest rates for life.
Mmm very interesting. so you’re saying it could work if the loans were only available for specific things like education, but there is still some risk people would find a way to game the system and the rich get richer anyways?
I own the stock and enjoy a senior coffee daily mmm mmm good!
mmm ok? then why’s he a freak?
i know about the news, totally ruined the gay movie he shoot
Swing trading is likely to lose you money, although there are some strategies (eg options writing) that may have an expected margin of outperformance. But it is basically a job, and it requires persistence, discipline, and watching meaningless numbers on a screen. We are Bogleheads because we believe the better way is to go out and make a productive living by earning & saving and keep your investments simple & passive so they grow themselves over the long run. The about tab for this sub has plenty of resources and info but these are two quotes from other than Jack Bogle which stick with me:
From Bill Bernstien’s If You Can:
>If you can follow this simple recipe throughout your working career, you will almost certainly beat out most professional investors.
From MMM’s Why Bitcoin is Stupid:
>I am always going to tell you that price speculation is a bad way to spend your life. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone.
Jared Vennett: I’m jacked! I’m jacked to the fuckin’ tits!!
Mark Baum: Mmm. OK.
Jared Vennett: Do you feel it?!
Mark Baum: No
mmm very interesting
i don’t expect new low, but retest 3500 wouldn’t be surprising at all
over all sounds like market will remain volatile as uncertainty still high. as macro condition remains constrained, eps will keep getting haircuts even if inflation slows down
mmm no, yield already flying the fk up
but ye maybe more squeeze on the way, lots of shortens getting margined
mmm a little racist for my taste.
maybe we go with "slumdog losers"
So basically everyone was thinking it was gonna go down ? Mmm funny to think that but well deserved w for these ppl
Mmm not upset, but ok.
I don’t agree with it being a valid point. Raising a few hens is not as hard or expensive as people think. And to say that you can’t do it as well as some giant company because “economy of scale” or “knowledge” is pretty ignorant.
I’ve done the math myself and I know I save money over buying the kind of eggs I used to buy at the grocery store. Even before the increase in cost.
Trying to factor in the cost of time to prove a point is ridiculous. That’s like trying to say you should be working 24/7 or you’re wasting your life.
No, I love Buffet. Also I don’t care what their performance is because I only need to care about mine.
Also you can time the market. It’s BS saying you can’t. If you understand world economics or take time to read on it you can essentially just wait on a drop.
Just like this whole drop the market took. The signs were there, FED laid their plan out with the interest hikes.
Interest rate hike begins, Effects aren’t felt immediately. Job cuts Housing sales dropped, rising inventory of homes and unreported inventory if you ever drive around and look at for sale signs. Less people at malls (And closing down of malls mmm yummy) Gas prices World Wars (UK & Russia, etc.) BRICS coming up with a currency that could overtake the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. Oh and considering the obvious of prices of ‘everything’ going up that means that’s less money to put into the market meaning no bull run.
Just naming the ones off the top of my head, also paying attention to my surroundings when out.
Mmm I’ll check it out if anything I’ll just scalp
I want bull decimation after my MMM calls print
Mmm, perhaps there's a good stock here!
Mmm AMZN and GOOG giving up almost all their gains today
Ohh, you touch my tralala
Mmm, my ding ding dong
Why are anime characters always like “uahaghh… hmm…. Mmm…. Hmph”
mmm seems a bit tame. double that and we got a good shot.
Please verify you are user “tvanborm” be stating “Dorito’s Dew it Right!”…
ERROR… verification not recognized. Please drink verification can.
Reach into Netflix Mountain Dew Watcher’s Chest
Force it down in required timeframe and repeat “Mmm… that really hit the spot.”
Verification successful, please enjoy watch Netflix presented by Doritos Mountain Dew Nacho Normal Soda!
Do those MMM funds have higher or lower APRs than Ally's current 3.4% rate? And are there any limitations to withdrawing?
Mmm, that’s why you should plan appropriately and set aside cash for tax payments
Mmm, just hypothetical, how we lookin on SPY if AAPL/AMZN/GOOG all hit same direction on ER? Would be fun to see.
Its going to be a disaster!! Mmm wait a second. CALLS IT IS.
Look at that chick hold that mike mmm
I'm neither proud nor ashamed of having done it. It was a business decision. You think a business stops to entertain moral considerations when contemplating Chapter 11? Layoffs? Spoiler: They don't.
You don't even know where my debts came from but have the arrogance to sit in judgment of me? What gives you the right?
Have you ever had major medical problems with lousy health insurance?
Ever had an employer go out of business?
Ever live somewhere with limited job opportunities?
Ever go through a divorce?
Ever have a child get sick?
Ever been the victim of a crime?
Ever lived through a major natural disaster?
There are countless reasons why someone can go bankrupt other than "Lived beyond their means." Dave Ramsey's books are not going to magically rebuild your house after a Category 5 Hurricane, keep a shitty employer from firing you for taking time off to be with a sick kid, stop your spouse from cheating on you, blah, blah, blah.
Try having some empathy and being a little less judgmental, mmm'kay?
Oh, you touch my tralala
Mmm, my ding ding dong
Mmm.. quite good at math being an engineer and all, was kinda joking on the calculations part. Not joking on making some plays with some of it though lol.
Oh, you touch my tralala
Mmm, my ding ding dong
I love these posts, all these companies lay before me, where to put my money first mm mm mmm
Mmm yes, rapid wage inflation at the very bottom of the economic totem pole, the worst ever for the poor.
Hey do you guys think this will hurt apple AAPL iPhone sales
When collapse and panic?
Excess Deaths 🚀🚀🚀
South Africa https://ibb.co/H24g7K9
South Korea https://ibb.co/zJkRBS5
Mmm we both know that’s not true, try harder plz
Yes I have a DS and Consulting background. My role itself isn’t super technical, but my team is highly technical. We develop MMM and MTA models paired with optimization tools to aid in measurement and budget planning. We also develop propensity and segmentation models for audience targeting and direct mail outreach.
Did you take any course on MMM?
There's a lot of conversation about MMM lately so I've been looking for a decent paid/free course for this subject.
Can you give an example of at list one tools MMM ? It’s pretty old concept, and it’s all of marketing.
> MMM = Media Metrics Merged i guess?
lol, its media mix modeling. Testing to figure out what is the best mixed of media channels to achieved the best results for the company.
MMM = Media Metrics Merged i guess?
Do you do brand deals on YouTube?
MMM is internal tool owned by our client. We do kantar for brand lift. Media metrics come from each platform and are merged for cross channel dashboards.
If I were in a general performance marketing role today I would really try to understand as much as possible about MMM, what it means and how it’s used. More and more brands are shifting to this form of analysis (from MTA).
In general being produced at running ads is increasingly a commodity but being good about the shifting of budgets across channels is more nuanced and complicated than ever. Build mastery there.
I’m in charge of making sure our biddable media is well allocated to deliver on client goals. I spend a lot of time trying to apply MMM and MTA analysis to our budget allocations across channels (like how muck do we spend on fb vs pin vs snap vs TikTok, etc)
And my teams are responsible for maximizing performance within channels.
Mmm I don’t trust myself to do such task like that and unfortunately I don’t know any mechanics personally.
Mmm this looks like a tasty treat for Monday. It’s either going to muy me a new house or another divorce
Mmm usually but demand for lumber comes from housing starts which comes from the housing market so a drop in the housing market would mean less demand and therfore lower prices.
Mmm, didn't mention Crypto, always leave a loophole...
Mmm, delicious. My tip for extra crispy skin — baking powder in your brine mix.
I bought MMM for earnings, then sold that to go into Intel. Double whammo.
Mmm I love a good skillet.
The only way I could see holding MMM would be selling CCs and soaking up premium and that dividend. Can’t say that would be a great use of capital, though.
(Writes letters) "mmm, yes, words"
Mmm. You know, this is always such a boring argument. Let me try to show you how this goes from my perspective.
Imagine if there were a bunch of vegans in your state and they got your state to ban the sale and consumption of meat. Most people would say that, while some people view eating meat as immoral, you should be able to decide whether or not it’s morally acceptable for yourself.
But then the vegans would tell these people “You’re advocating for the slaughter of living things! You are morally bankrupt! I will not listen to what you have to say! I literally must be right because my own personal view of morality says I am, and anyone who disagrees must be evil!”
And then they refuse to listen to anyone that disagrees with them, or even entertain the possibility that they might be wrong.
I can almost guarantee your response is going to completely miss the point and be something along the lines of “you’re equating killing animals with killing babies???” And then it’s never going to get anywhere because your head is so far up your own ass that you can’t even hear me, the only reason you even responded to me is because you think I’m some kind of cartoon supervillain who wants babies to die for fun or something and you want to reaffirm your “holier than thou” image.
But hey, maybe you’ll prove me wrong.
(draws lines) “mmm, yes, a bullish Golden Cross” lmao stfu
A HELOC is only advised by people selling HELOCs. Mmm, variable interest.
Mmm here's a glass of aged milk
Layoffs spreading outside tech/finance. Dow, MMM, SAP, and Goodyear reducing workforce.
I do SEO / Content Strategy Development all day everyday and ChatGPT is quite the tool for researching and gathering a ton of topic ideas.
I couple it with my current methodologies that have been successful for years and I can see this being a big deal long term. Google has already come out and said AI content is not necessarily bad content - it just depends on if it satisfies the user's intent, thus Google providing a positive experience to their users.
Anywho, I discovered this prompt and thought I would share some of the capabilities ChatGPT has:
"Write a [length] [type] on [topic] in the style of [style]"
- Write a 200 word essay on Indian food in the style of Adam Sandler
Indian food, oh Indian food. Let me tell you, it's the bomb-diggity. The spices, the flavors, the heat - it's like a party in your mouth. And let me tell you, I love a good party in my mouth.
You got your curry, your tikka masala, your biryani. Oh man, biryani. That stuff is like a big ol' hug from your mom. You know, if your mom made really delicious, fragrant rice with chunks of chicken or lamb mixed in.
And let's not forget about the bread. Naan, roti, paratha - they're all like little clouds of love sent down from the food gods. And when you dip 'em in some yogurt or chutney, it's like fireworks in your mouth. I mean, it's like the 4th of July in there.
And the appetizers, don't even get me started. Samosas, pakoras, vadas - they're like little bites of heaven. I could eat a whole plate of those and be happy as a clam.
Now, I know some of you might be thinking "Adam, this food is too spicy for me." But let me tell you, a little heat never hurt nobody. And if it's too much for you, just wash it down with a cold glass of lassi. Mmm, that yogurt drink is like a cool breeze on a hot summer day.
So, if you haven't tried Indian food yet, you're missing out. Trust me, it's like a love song to your taste buds. And if you have tried it, well then you know what I'm talking about. Indian food, you complete me.
> jobless claims less than forecast, GDP higher than forecast.
Yeah, 2.9% rather than 2.8%. That's annualized.
> Orders for long-lasting goods also were much better than expected, rising 5.6% for December, compared with the 2.4% estimate. However, orders fell 0.1% when excluding transportation as demand for Boeing passenger planes helped drive the headline number.
> Despite the fairly strong economic data, most economists think a recession is a strong possibility this year.
> “Just as the economy wasn’t as weak in the first half of 2022 as GDP reports suggested, it’s also not as strong as the Q4 GDP release would indicate,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “Held aloft by resilient consumer spending, the economy expanded at a solid pace late last year, but remains vulnerable to a more pronounced slowdown in the coming quarters.”
> “The mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth quarter went on,” wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics. “We still expect the lagged impact of the surge in interest rates to push the economy into a mild recession in the first half of this year.”
Government spending increases accounted for much of this 2.9%; housing took a huge hit.
I'm not being doctrinaire. I'm not saying it will go down. I just bought 1100 MMM. I'm just hedging.