most on this sub, probably really likes NTR

NTR when it's $40 sometime in the next couple years.

NTR = Nutrien?

It's all tech shit dude. Go pull up NTR or some other shit and put it on that list too and see how it looks.

Ntr

Index funds bro. Or buy calls in NTR as this war ramps up

In this one instance, I’m ok with NTR

Natural gas is staggeringly expensive in much of the rest of the world. It is the main feedstock in some fertilizer. Fertilizer is necessary to feed the world. Fert Co's in Europe all curtailing or ceasing production. Look at fertilizer plays in the US where natural gas is cheap. CF, NTR, MOS, UAN. These have all had a good run and pulled back recently as this is not planting season, but will roar again soon. UAN is an MLP which paid $10 per unit last quarter. Will be lower in Nov, as closed for some scheduled maintenance, but Q1 payment probably $12. Expect circa $40 next year on a $130 stock. Jmho.

US fertilizer stocks are at the beginning of their cycle. Should do very well over the next 4-5 years. It takes 4-5 years to build new plants, feedstock of natural gas is relatively very cheap in the US compared to Europe, grain stores are at historic lows, crop yields fairly poor, crop prices are high. I like $UAN the most, $CF, $NTR, $MOS also good candidates.

Also in the fertilizer business NTR ADM MOS CF

You are correct. I should have included $UAN. Market cap $1.4B, P/E 4.77, EPS $28.93. They would be a very similar small cap version of $CF just like $IPI is a small cap to $NTR and $MOS.

Be ready for a migration of European producers from Europe to NA on based on this..

I wrote an article a little over a year ago on NTR, maybe you’d find it interesting.

https://www.tavs2cents.ca/blog/nutrien-stock-analysis

I like $NTR because of market share and location.

Id also suggest you consider $SQM and $APD.

Bought both MOS and NTR today.

I picked up calls in CHK today. Holding calls in LNG, TELL, EQT, VET and bought some ferts... NTR and MOS.

Fartilizer stocks - UAN, CF, MOS, NTR - outperforming also showing commodities inflation isn’t over

MOS, NTR, CF are the ones I've heard of

US fert stocks. US has 'relatively cheap' natural gas compared to Europe, Ammonia based ferts are very profitable to produce in the US. Europe is currently shutting production facilities down. US may be shipping urea & ammonia over to Europe for further processing into fertilizers. Expect a bull cycle in US fertilizer firms for 3-5 years. I'm long CVR-Partners (UAN) but CF, MOS, NTR would also be good choices.

Canadian with strong oil convictions:

Energy - 46% SGY 11% MEG 7% VET 5% CVE 5% IYE 5% HXE 2% TVE 2% SDE 2% WCE 1% ITE 1% PPR 1% GTE 1% OBE 1% RZE 1% PEI 1%

Long Hold ETFs - 21% QQQ 12% ZWC 4% VIG 4% GNOM 1%

Real Estate / Land - 8% VRE 4% FPI 2% LAND 2%

Long Hold Stocks - 15% CNR 3% CP 3% GOOGL 2% BRK.B 2% COST 2% NVDA 2% ISRG 1%

Misc - 10% BALL 4% NTR 2% AXON 2% IYM 1% RHC 1%

Planning to shift out of oil into tech ETFs when there’s some sort of resolution to the looming oil supply crunch.

Positions are ADM, BG, CF, NTR, FMC, KL.

AGG picks like ADM NTR CF

Yeah, but instead you should be long on fertilizer manufacturers like CF, NTR, and MOS. Farmers in Idaho are heavily subsidized and too big to fail

Tickers of Interest

Gamma Max Cross

• EPD 09/16 27P for $0.50 or less
• STWD 12/16 24P for $1.10 or less
• PRU 09/16 105P for $3.00 or less
• NTR 09/16 90P for $2.95 or less
• CSIQ 09/16 38P for $1.40 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• JPM 09/16 120P for $1.90 or less
• DASH 09/16 75C for $4.90 or less
• BKR 10/21 25/26 Strangle for $3.10 or less combined
• BMBL 09/16 35C for $1.25 or less
• WEBR 09/16 7.5P for $0.90 or less

Trading Thesis

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.

FAQ

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.

You guys think that MOS and NTR are reaching again their recent highs due to upscaling due to sanctions against Russia?

How is NTR red after those numbers?

Tickers of Interest

Gamma Max Cross

• CDW 08/19 175P for $2.10 or less
• VRSN 08/19 185P for $1.50 or less
• NFE 08/19 45P for $1.00 or less
• UGI 09/16 40P for $0.55 or less
• HTZ 09/16 20P for $1.15 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• NTR 09/16 80/85 Strangle for $6.75 or less
• PRU 08/19 95P for $1.30 or less
• OTIS 09/16 75P for $1.55 or less
• ABC 11/18 140/145 Strangle for $11.75 or less
• AEM 09/16 40P for $1.60 or less

Trading Strategy

Gamma Max is the price where a hypothetical portfolio of all option open interest for the ticker produces the most gamma.

Delta Neutral is the price where a hypothetical portfolio of all option open interest for the ticker produces the least delta.

Simply touching those calculated price levels isn't enough to make a trading decision. You need to consider what the ticker's price did the previous times it touched those levels. You should also take into context the broader market movement.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

A bunch of fertilizer stocks reporting earnings this week. CF/MOS today, NTR tomorrow I think.

And NTR

CF ,NTR, MOS

I consider myself a pretty decent guy... and you're telling me to invest in NTR?

Bro.

Any idea why $MOS is under performing the other two? Actually, NTR is relatively new so I guess we can't count that but CF had a huge drop along with MOS back in 2008 but CF has now hit ATHs whereas MOS only got up to half of what it did in 2008 before the plummet.

Not sure if this means it has potential to go up much more or it's a much weaker company.

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1534 companies reporting. This is up/down ->
$AMD 7.7%
$PYPL 10.8%
$SQ 12.5%
$AMC 12.0%
$TWLO 14.0%
$LYFT 17.6%
$FUBO 17.1%
$NET 14.2%
$DASH 14.8%
$EXPE 11.3%
$CVNA 20.9%
$ZG 15.6%
$OPEN 18.5%
$TEAM 12.0%
$TRIP 9.5%
$RKT 9.2%
$XPO 9.7%
$BABA 9.7%
$DDOG 12.7%
$CROX 15.1%
$PENN 8.9%
$FVRR 23.3%
$YETI 9.8%
$W 18.6%
$CI 4.8%
$SHAK 12.9%
$SOFI 14.6%
$ABNB 9.3%
$SBUX 5.6%
$HOOD 12.3%
$LCID 12.4%
$EBAY 7.0%
$FSLY 18.1%
$SKLZ 20.9%
$BKNG 7.2%
$NTR 5.8%
$OXY 6.6%
$GILD 3.8%
$MTCH 9.4%
$MSTR 13.5%
$SEDG 14.1%
$AYX 15.3%
$RNG 16.1%
$EXAS 10.1%
$MRNA 8.6%
$CVS 4.5%
$REGN 6.7%
$YUM 5.4%
$SSYS 9.2%
$SMG 9.3%
$TUP 24.1%
$PINS 16.5%
$CAR 14.9%
$ANET 8.8%
$CF 6.3%
$RIG 11.2%
$SPG 6.7%
$ZI 14.2%
$CAT 5.1%
$JBLU 8.4%
$UBER 11.7%
$BP 5.3%
$RACE 4.5%
$ZBRA 8.6%
$SPWR 11.4%
$TAP 6.4%

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1534 companies reporting. This up/down ->

​

$AMD 7.7%
$PYPL 10.8%
$SQ 12.5%
$AMC 12.0%
$TWLO 14.0%
$LYFT 17.6%
$FUBO 17.1%
$NET 14.2%
$DASH 14.8%
$EXPE 11.3%
$CVNA 20.9%
$ZG 15.6%
$OPEN 18.5%
$TEAM 12.0%
$TRIP 9.5%
$RKT 9.2%
$XPO 9.7%
$BABA 9.7%
$DDOG 12.7%
$CROX 15.1%
$PENN 8.9%
$FVRR 23.3%
$YETI 9.8%
$W 18.6%
$CI 4.8%
$SHAK 12.9%
$SOFI 14.6%
$ABNB 9.3%
$SBUX 5.6%
$HOOD 12.3%
$LCID 12.4%
$EBAY 7.0%
$FSLY 18.1%
$SKLZ 20.9%
$BKNG 7.2%
$NTR 5.8%
$OXY 6.6%
$GILD 3.8%
$MTCH 9.4%
$MSTR 13.5%
$SEDG 14.1%
$AYX 15.3%
$RNG 16.1%
$EXAS 10.1%
$MRNA 8.6%
$CVS 4.5%
$REGN 6.7%
$YUM 5.4%
$SSYS 9.2%
$SMG 9.3%
$TUP 24.1%
$PINS 16.5%
$CAR 14.9%
$ANET 8.8%
$CF 6.3%
$RIG 11.2%
$SPG 6.7%
$ZI 14.2%
$CAT 5.1%
$JBLU 8.4%
$UBER 11.7%
$BP 5.3%
$RACE 4.5%
$ZBRA 8.6%
$SPWR 11.4%
$TAP 6.4%

It's not just oil. The oil stocks make up a HUGE position of my port. But the agriculture stocks like $MOS, $CF, $NTR, or $IPI will 10x the oil gains.

$CF, $MOS, $NTR, $IPI, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOYB. If you are risk adverse buy a commodity etf for agriculture. I am bullish on all but especially $MOS. But I am more of a gambler than most here and am extremely bullish on commodities.

NTR is a $40 stock

I'm scooping up tons of NVIDIA and AMD. Also scooping up silver and agriculture stocks for a recession. Lithium and cobalt mining also. LAND, FPI, NTR, AG, ALB. During the upcoming recession commodities and land should outperform the market and tech stocks with potential high rates of return like NVIDIA are too good to pass up

What is the ticker for corn? NTR?

Added to $IPI for the 2nd straight day. All grain futures are up, $SOYB, $WEAT, $CORN. The fertilizers like $MOS, $IPI, and $NTR are going to start rallying with the grain futures.

I would not recommend investing in commodities producers unless you have good knowledge of underlying commodities and markets in general. But since you ask some individual equities

Agri: AMD, BG Fertilizer: NTR, MOS, CF Seeds: CTVA, FMC Miners: RIO, BHP, FCX

I've been trading these in the past but not anymore. They are majors and really top of the pile commodity producers. There are hundreds of minors but I see no reason to get involved with those.

Agriculture/fertilizer stocks continue getting crushed. MOS down 8%, NTR down 7%, John Deere ($DE) down 6.5%, CF down nearly 9%.

Relevant Tweet

🌱 🇨🇦

Canada's Nutrien $NTR, the world's largest fertilizer producer, said on Thursday it plans to increase potash production to an annual 18 million tonnes by 2025 to mitigate supply uncertainty from Eastern Europe.

VALE and RIO and BHP are large high dividend but they are so heavy on Iron that your primarily invested in Iron. Its why i'm in FCX instead of one of them. I'm trying to be pureplay on copper. I did invest in some lithium earlier and also some potash. u get potash with BHP and I think VALE but I figured If I want potash get a potash company like NTR, if I want copper get FCX. If I want potash and lithium then SQM, if I want lithium only then ALB. But pureplays keep my brain from smoking. But u still have to be in large companies the multiples and risk are higher on smaller companies.

Fertilizer companies another angle to make some $ here? Thinking nutrien (NTR)

all I've got is NTR

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it. Seems like a solid company, everyone that I talk to who works with nutrien says they have outstanding customer service.

I started acquiring NTR shares last week. My only fear is that ag input demand falls off a cliff if/when Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine bring supply back into the market when Nutrien’s new facilities come online in 23’/24’/25’.

BHP didn't buy POT. AGU did, and renamed the company to NTR following the merger.

Calls on shit?

I don't know what it is, but I really like $NTR. I can't stop talking about it with my wife's boyfriend.

I would say the same if you don't also own the grains like $WEAT or $CORN. Or Fertilizers like $NTR, $MOS< $CF, or $IPI. Are you waiting for ATH's to buy in? Food is the 2nd less talked about component of 8.6% inflation.

I did a very cursory comparison of Nutrien (NTR) and IPI, and there are a few things I think may be driving the underperformance. Although IPI has less debt and better margins than NTR, they’re a smaller company; IPI made $303mm as of 3/31 (assuming annually?) whereas NTR made $30bn. I am assuming that due to the inflation going on all over the economy investors are prioritizing scale over better margins and lack of debt. Additionally NTR pays a dividend, which serves as ballast amidst the volatility markets have been going through.

Then there are a few nuances to each company’s business. Based on the Fidelity blurb describing IPI, part of their business is supplying potash and potassium chloride for ag, but they also supply those feedstocks to oil and gas industry along with water, and salts for road maintenance (according to their Q1 report this segment has been affected by mild winter weather), pools, and animal feed. And they almost exclusively operate in the US. On the other hand, Nutrien focuses on ag inputs and some financing for their products which makes it much more of a pure-play. It has a much larger international presence, including distribution centers (IPI has 3 in the western US, NTR’s are all over the map both globally and in North America, plus they seem to focus more on the eastern US). So this international business is probably one of the main draws given how the food supply’s been affected all over. There could be differences in the efficiency of their production processes too but I don’t have the chemistry knowledge to research that very well.

Dvn, ipi, ovv, ntr, btegf, Zeus, eqnr, adm, lng,cpe, cf

NTR

NTR Aug puts

Look into $BTU, $MOS, $NTR, those have been very profitable for me this year.

im surprised not many more ppl mention this. I like NTR, though. fertilizer business has tailwinds for next few quarters imo until crash occurs.

So, I know this is, like, a confusing/worrying number of stocks maybe, but think of it from this context. I had a problem for months and months with pay to win games on my phone. I pissed away hundreds on bullshit, and I still have spending problems. And I know that robinhood was in trouble specifically for making stocks seem like a game, and that's the app where I've bought most of these. But...

1. Even at a loss, otherwise I was going to compulsively spend the money anyway. At least this way some is recoverable.

2. This is for practice and it's for long term. I don't mind waiting years and years for the market to lift all my bad choices up off the ground.

3. I know that many of these are essentially the same stocks or etfs. The whole thing follows vti/qqq/spy reasonably closely.

GOOGL, PALL, GLTR, LIT, ICLN, PPLT, MSOS, DIS, BRK.A, ECNS, INDA, YOLO, MJ, CAT, SMH, AMZN, PEP, CYB, PABU, VEON, JNJ, SPYG, LYV, PFE, AZN, MRNA, BOTZ, HDELY, BOAT, APD, GLD, BABA, ITA, URA, WEAT, OIL, REMX, LLY, XLU, HGER, SPYV, MCD, MSFT, VTI, IDRV, DRIV, ARKK, ARKF ARKG, ARKW, WTRG, JEPI, TAN, V, CWT, IAUF, AWK, AA, MA, RIO, FXE, GTO, MP, GWRS, NTR, CF, CORN, SOYB, ABBV, O, LTC, REET, EPR, INDS, SRVR, VYM, IEHS, IHI, VEGI, NUE, EPAM, MAIN, WM, RIOT, MCHI, XES, HRZN, JJN, VALE, SLV, F, COPX, CPER, VWAGY, CRUZ, BND, DOW, TIP, TM, CSL, GM, JETS, DE, CBT, OEC, SQM, BATT, UNP, UNG, GS, NVDA, SHEL, LAC, CVX, TSLA, GIS, WPM, K, XOM, BRBR, NKLA, AGCO, GME, OXY, INTC, KO, GE, CNI, MMM, EQNR, LMT, RTX, HMC, NIO, DD, XLP, RIVN, LI, XPEV, SNP, ADM, IRDM, EA, CCL, SQ, COIN, MVIS, RS, HOOD, BITO, BTF, XBTF, CLSK, HUT, AAPL, WMT, COST, AMD, BP, MU, GD, BSX, ATVI, SCCO, KR, CTVA, HES, TSCO, FANG, CLF, STLD, X, BG, Y, POST, BYND, CEG, GDX, VIGI, EWU, XLE, VV, DIA, ASHR, HYLB, DXJ, EWY, IJT, IJS, IWC, EWJ, BITQ, PYPL, AGRO, QQQ, LYFT, UBER, TGT, CSCO, CSX, NSC, CP ,SATO, AFRM, KLAC, HD, ROKU, CRPT, NGE, ILF, VPU, JPM, CQQQ, DMLRY, TRYP, SNAP, AMC, SDY, BNDX, VXUS, AGG, CMF, MUB, DMLRY, SPY, and for some spice TQQQ that was a free reward for signing up with an app.

I keep going back and forth on whether I want to stop this behavior or just keep buying small bits of stocks until the end of time.

Fertilizer is NTR, MOS, and CF.

When I start going long on tech later this year, it will be in business infrastructure cloud services that are too important to be trimmed from budgets during economic downturns. I'm monitoring IUCLOUN . I don't like XLK now because AAPL is too Consumer Discretionary.

Sorry, I suppose I should specify that the stocks are fertilizer, not wheat. I own Intrepid Potash ($IPI), Mosaic ($MOS) and Nutrien ($NTR).

$BG $CTVA $NTR
ask your self are you paying more or less for Pizza, Burgers, Salad
bowls, Chipotle, wheat soy, etc. India is restricting wheat, sugar
exports, and maybe even rice, there are food riots in Sri Lanka and
Peru, and People in Lebanon can barely afford food. The world needs more
food not less. Prices at the store are up and this stock is down. Its
fucking pure price manipulation. Hold Do not sell your shares.

Demand destruction on fertilizers. Ain't nobody got time for NTR UAN MOS

Don’t forget fertilizer stocks!

IPI, MOS, NTR, etc.

These will do so good in the next few years.

Yes, but the real money will be made in fertilizer stocks. My top picks: IPI, MOS, NTR

These make up about 12% of my portfolio

CORN, CANE, and SOYB. Also look into fertilizer companies like IPI, LXU, MOS, and NTR. Keep in mind, Intrepid is the only US miner of potash for supply chain disruption and fertilizer will be classified as a strategic resource within the next 5 yrs.

“Soaring prices are driven by a confluence of factors, including surging input costs, supply disruptions caused by sanctions (Belarus and Russia), and export restrictions (China). Urea prices have surpassed their 2008 peaks, while phosphates and potash prices are inching closer to 2008 levels. Concerns around fertilizer affordability and availability have been amplified by the war in Ukraine.” From world bank article

Ukraine war’s repercussions Between them, Ukraine and Russia produce almost a third of the world’s wheat and barley and half of its sunflower oil. Russia and Belarus are the world’s number two and three producers of potash, a key ingredient of fertilizer.

India has banned exports of wheat effective immediately, citing a risk to food security, partly due to the war in Ukraine and as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.

Although not one of the world’s top wheat exporters, India’s ban could drive global prices to new peaks given already tight supply, hitting poor consumers in Asia and Africa particularly hard.

$MOS $NTR $CF Best plays people load the boat we about to go sailing

“Soaring prices are driven by a confluence of factors, including surging input costs, supply disruptions caused by sanctions (Belarus and Russia), and export restrictions (China). Urea prices have surpassed their 2008 peaks, while phosphates and potash prices are inching closer to 2008 levels. Concerns around fertilizer affordability and availability have been amplified by the war in Ukraine.” From world bank article

Ukraine war’s repercussions Between them, Ukraine and Russia produce almost a third of the world’s wheat and barley and half of its sunflower oil. Russia and Belarus are the world’s number two and three producers of potash, a key ingredient of fertilizer.

India has banned exports of wheat effective immediately, citing a risk to food security, partly due to the war in Ukraine and as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.

Although not one of the world’s top wheat exporters, India’s ban could drive global prices to new peaks given already tight supply, hitting poor consumers in Asia and Africa particularly hard.

$MOS $NTR $CF Best plays people load the boat we about to go sailing

“Soaring prices are driven by a confluence of factors, including surging input costs, supply disruptions caused by sanctions (Belarus and Russia), and export restrictions (China). Urea prices have surpassed their 2008 peaks, while phosphates and potash prices are inching closer to 2008 levels. Concerns around fertilizer affordability and availability have been amplified by the war in Ukraine.” -From world bank article $MOS $NTR $CF “Food Security” is the real crisis plus inflation

CF, UAN, NTR, MOS

Fertilizers $MOS $IPI $NTR $CF

Yeah . I’ve done well on NTR

Doing Ok. Down about 15% from peak. Have been working on a new project so didn't have the same amount of time to trade as I did so I largely went to cash in the beginning of the year where I could. I reallocated a lot to private sector deals (prob 40%) via AltoIRA and direct investments. I stayed neutral on large positions by steadily selling covered calls on V, AAPL, MSFT, CELH, INMD (anything I owned as equity) and some puts I was running on V, UPST. I managed to get out of the semis doing well though I held 20% of them too long and sold the rest in March. My big losses were ironically on a large SPY put (50 contracts) I stayed too long in when there was a bear rally, CROX which still surprises me as the company continues to crush it., and a bunch of small companies that are long term bets I really won't look at for ten years anyway. Did well on PFE. I caught some great trades from the levelfields alerts on NTR, NOG and IPI, and did well going in on LMT when the war broke out. CELH am neutral on still given covered calls. Did get reamed on COIN calls. Sold all crypto but BTC for small gains. Did you make a lot on your shorts?

NTR to $160 (CAD)

Long term puts on HYG and Long Term Calls on NTR, BG & CTVA

Potash was like that back in the day: POT...now it is NTR.

I am all in oil, commodities and NTR.

I’m watching $CF and $NTR, I mean look how far they’ve climbed since September ‘21, almost parabolic. Reminds me of AMD’s top. I’d be impressed if there was more gas in the tank, but based on how other commodities like steel and copper, lumber; I’m leaning more towards top.

my top 40. all worth looking into. spent over a year making this list, theres more but this captures many great sectors.

OXY

CVS

AMD

SQ

AAPL

ZIM

CEG

NVDA

TSLA

MRVL

MOS

AMZN

F

DIS

UEC

TLRY

CLF

AA

HOOD

ABNB

MRNA

LAC

ENPH

NET

STEM

AST

TELL

UNH

NTR

AMAT

MU

TGT

FB

BLNK

RKLB

PTRA

GRWG

CRSP

PLUG

APPH

This sounds like the start of an NTR hentai. We just need the ugly bastard now. I’ll volunteer my wife’s boyfriend.

NTR is my shining star 🌟

NTR crushed earnings! Looks like lots of runway into 2023.

Sold before divi at 80ish. Scalped sblk and grin for 30-50% gains. Out of ntr as well. Good luck guys

NTR too. Brrrrrrr

Did you get out of NTR with any profits? Shit tanked so quick

I was 2/3 today on fertilizers and materials. Had calls on NTR, FMC, and MOS. I'll take the MOS hit since no one was expecting anything crazy. Hoping MPC crushing in the morning for some max gains.

$NTR $BG

$NTR

…bish

The VIX is too high I agree. #3 and #4 producers are at war. It's not expected to cover as it's impossible. So prices will simply go up. Plus NTR is trying to increase potash by $1B more. This is going to get worse and high prices for a while.

I bought stocks as you said IV is too high and I'm in it for 6 months longer.

NTR looks very good and cheap

Really, Wow not what I get.

Symbol,Impl Vol,IVRank,Mark,Net Chng ABNB,76.07%,88.9,153.700,-6.53 AKAM,45.87%,73.6,112.280,-3.55 AMD,76.12%,93.9,85.870,-4.12 ANET,68.13%,85.8,116.000,-5.34 BIGC,111.37%,65.9,17.880,-.80 BIIB,44.72%,13.4,207.530,-2.97 BKNG,60.49%,100.0,2211.110,-107.49 BP,51.99%,72.1,28.720,-.63 CAR,112.29%,45.5,267.670,-5.38 CHGG,99.89%,59.1,24.740,-.96 CROX,85.46%,92.3,66.750,-1.39 CVS,39.80%,100.0,96.130,-4.72 DASH,118.61%,99.8,81.540,-5.96 DBX,63.60%,67.6,21.750,-.71 DDOG,99.44%,94.7,121.500,-7.69 DOCN,132.76%,100.0,39.430,-4.57 EAT,79.91%,100.0,36.380,-2.51 EL,50.39%,100.0,264.060,-8.27 ETSY,103.88%,99.7,93.660,-8.69 EXPE,70.39%,99.3,175.330,-8.65 EXPI,113.63%,87.1,13.390,-.63 FSLY,132.96%,95.9,15.950,-1.20 FTNT,71.78%,97.3,289.500,-19.64 FUBO,160.15%,94.0,3.790,-.28 GDDY,54.04%,81.4,80.810,-6.52 IPI,109.87%,75.8,76.580,-6.48 IRBT,93.85%,89.0,50.650,+.29 LOGI,60.70%,68.2,65.300,-.70 LYFT,82.42%,85.9,32.720,-.96 MELI,85.58%,91.7,975.060,-66.37 MGM,58.46%,78.3,41.060,-1.07 MGNI,110.35%,73.5,9.650,-.60 MOS,80.75%,96.2,62.450,-2.90 MRNA,91.72%,72.1,135.000,-8.11 MTCH,82.66%,98.4,79.350,-2.45 NET,107.20%,96.9,86.260,-9.11 NTR,60.94%,91.1,98.250,-3.05 PENN,86.45%,89.9,36.700,-1.31 PFE,44.17%,88.3,48.680,-1.44 PRU,41.91%,71.6,108.510,-3.61 QSR,37.08%,89.9,57.150,-1.27 RACE,44.88%,71.8,209.740,-4.30 REGN,36.55%,76.6,659.210,-16.47 SBUX,47.33%,99.2,74.750,-1.94 SHAK,77.83%,96.9,57.830,-2.33 SHOP,104.01%,97.5,428.050,-16.46 SKLZ,152.62%,50.0,2.060,-.14 SQ,105.42%,93.6,99.800,-5.10 SWKS,64.64%,100.0,113.350,-4.35 TRIP,71.02%,66.6,25.670,-.69 TUP,87.47%,68.2,17.580,-.25 TWLO,103.28%,100.0,111.820,-7.10 UBER,79.30%,96.5,31.480,-1.34 VRTX,35.17%,30.5,273.220,+4.58 W,120.04%,97.2,77.020,-6.45 WING,74.37%,95.7,91.760,-6.02 YUM,38.07%,88.1,117.010,-2.51 ZBRA,52.01%,89.8,370.010,-13.32 ZG,94.13%,97.0,38.650,-.96 ZI,81.83%,88.1,47.400,-1.55

I could see NTR and MOS do really well here.

MOS and NTR are my bets. Fertilizer is the only commodity I like, everyone needs to eat.

A lot of gains already priced in but revenue for both should be crazy.

Some implied ones for earnings next week - 1607 companies reporting : $SQ 15.8% $ZG 18.6% $DASH 18.5% $FUBO 22.4% $MELI 12.1% $DBX 9.2% $SHAK 15.5% $VRTX 5.0% $SHOP 14.6% $DDOG 15.6% $UBER 11.9% $TWLO 16.9% $ETSY 17.5% $NET 15.7% $FSLY 20.0% $SKLZ 26.8% $TRIP 11.5% $FTNT 14.0% $IRBT 18.7% $BKNG 8.8% $DOCN 24.9% $MGNI 20.7% $GDDY 10.6% $CROX 16.9% $PENN 11.1% $W 19.1% $AMD 10.9% $ABNB 10.7% $SBUX 6.7% $LYFT 12.8% $SWKS 9.4% $MTCH 10.7% $AKAM 7.7% $PRU 7.3% $MRNA 12.4% $CVS 5.2% $REGN 6.7% $YUM 5.0% $WING 13.2% $RACE 6.1% $EAT 14.2% $EXPI 21.5% $TUP 17.1% $CHGG 20.2% $CAR 18.7% $EXPE 10.6% $LOGI 11.3% $MGM 7.7% ?$ANET 11.2% $MOS 10.9% $ZI 16.3% $NTR 8.5% $IPI 20.9% $BIGC 21.5% $PFE 6.0% $BP 6.1% $BIIB 5.9% $QSR 6.8% ?$EL 9.7% $ZBRA 10.1%

Soybean planting is expected to rise by volume and acreage in 2022 since Soybeans use less fertilizer than Corn and Wheat. Also you can plant Soybeans later in the planting season than Corn.

There is another topic where a fellow reddit user posted about $MOS, $ADM, and $NTR. I think those stocks are a better play on inflation than the commodity ETF's. But If you want to go with ETF's I would look to buy $CORN or $WEAT on the dip over $SOYB.

A lot of farmers locked in their prices for fertilizer before the Ukraine/Russian war so their volume is up, and the farmers bought at pre war prices. It's all going to come down to $NTR guidance. Do they expect farmers to buy fertilizer for the 2023 growing season at the increased prices in phosphates? If Corn and Wheat prices remain near all time highs and continue to climb, I expect the answer to be Yes. And remember the market is forward looking. There is soon to be a panic in a potential food shortage/crisis.

Thank you.

Any idea why NTR continues to do well even with high NG prices? Is the idea that yes costs are higher but increases in fertilizer costs outpace NG costs?

Question: increases in natgas price decrease margins for ammonia producers. So why have companies like NTR which produce a lot of ammonia and N-bases fertilizers done so well in an environment where NG prices are up 2x in US and 5x+ in Europe from last year?

I would say $ADM is the less volatile stock and $MOS and $NTR are leveraged stocks on the move in Corn and Wheat prices. $MOS is having issues with production, or at least they did last quarter but prices of Phosphate in particular have rising so dramatically that their price increases have hidden their mining shortages. I am more of a gambler than many, and I expect $MOS shares to explode once their production gets on track.

Another fertilizer stock to look at is $CF. They are in hydrogen and nitrogen fertilizer and less reliant on the Ukraine/Russian war.

$NTR is made up of the old Agrium and Potash Saskatchewan. I am more bullish on $MOS but either is fine. The deal is you have to watch the futures market in Wheat & Corn especially if you get into these companies. Soybeans are less reliant on fertilizer.

Watch ticker symbols $WEAT & $CORN if you buy $MOS or $NTR; or watch the actual futures market for Wheat & Corn. As long as $WEAT and $CORN remain above all DMA's than $MOS and $NTR are buys on the dip.

Helps a lot to frame, thank you.

Yes it’s very impressive that ADM has been publicly traded since 1924 and still going strong. Not exactly a meme stock but good value and momentum IMO.

One more question: If looking at fertilizer plays: How does MOS compare with NTR?

How does MOS compare to NTR?