So to clarify this isn't financial advice cause I don't wanna end up getting sued lol.

However, if my thesis/hypothesis/prediction comes true, and inflation spikes crazily. You want to be in value/staples/precious metal stocks (ie: commodities or dividend yielding stocks). To give a few examples:

Commodities/Energy:

• CVX (Chevron) (gas)
• Shell (gas)
• DVN (gas)
• LNG (natural gas)

Staples/Food:

• Tsn (Tyson foods) (meat etc)
• CALM (Cal-Maine Foods) (egg producer)
• MOS Mosiac (Fertilizer etc)
• NTR (Nutrien) (Fertilizer)

Precious metals:

• GDX (Gold etf)
• Gold
• Silver
• bronze

Value:

• WMT (Walmart)
• PG (Procter and gamble)
• Pfizer (Medicine)
• UNH (United health) (Health insurance)

While banks might be a good option, after witnessing the recent bank runs, I'd say maybe stay clear of them for now. Normally bank stocks would fall under value category, but I'm hesitant to go long into a high inflationary situation. Hope this gives some exposure and idea of what stocks would do well in a high inflationary environment.

Things that look underpriced at a glance would be MPW, FNF, NTR, Raiffeisen bank if you're into that. I would be short SPY and long something that I wouldn't mind holding as a hedge. Buying into failing banks is a play that might be ok for a very small gamble but most everything else I would avoid personally. SPY calls here are dumb but that doesn't mean you're going to make money on Puts either.

Fertilizer prices are still going down week over week. I am a bit surprised by the strength in this recent rally in $CF, $NTR, and $MOS. It almost smells like short covering or some heavy options trading. $MOS was downgraded by 2 banks the week before their earnings call and that's when all 3 started this recent rally.

Berenberg Bank downgraded $MOS price outlook to $47 from $55 and Bloomberg to $44 from $40. I haven't checked the earnings reports for $CF and $NTR since I don't own them, but they seem like good companies as well.

NTR are doing buybacks.

People buy less tec wen food cost more.

I wouldnt sleep on fertilizers (NTR, BIOX, etc etc)

Russia is one of the top input producers and it's out of some time and people still need to eat and farmers need fertilizer.

https://preview.redd.it/6e36ntr9t6ka1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=8f1cf3fbc541b86b60bd39d715da37884f756f23

Now only 20K shares showing on iborrowdesk

NTR came back down to max pain on an over stacked options chain. MMs fucked your calls and your puts. Theta gang lovin it. That's all ova now.

Next week it's free fall time.

NTR announced a 10% divi rise, and 5% share buy back, then sold off hard from EPS miss.

This bitch going down hard.

$NTR earnings miss. EPS $2.02 vs $2.57 exp.

Nutrien announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.53 per share which is a 10% increase over their last announced divy.

The AG fertilizer industry is a mixed bag. $CF beat and $NTR missed. I own $MOS and $IPI over the other 2 that reported today. Very interesting.

Implied moves for earnings next week, 516 companies reporting:

​

$SHOP 11.2%
$ROKU 15.9%
$DDOG 11.7%
$DKNG 12.9%
$AMAT 6.3%
$DASH 13.8%
$SBLK 7.0%
$SWAV 9.9%
$RDFN 19.4%
$HAS 7.6%
$CROX 13.3%
$PARA 9.2%
$POOL 7.4%
$SHAK 9.7%
$WE 27.9%
$BLMN 9.5%
$LH 4.7%
$CSCO 6.1%
$TWLO 17.5%
$UPWK 13.6%
$FSLY 18.2%
$NTR 5.9%
$DE 4.8%
$ZG 11.6%
$RNG 14.2%
$AIG 4.4%
$AMED 8.8%
$EQIX 4.8%
$RBLX 15.1%
$TTD 14.1%
$KHC 4.6%
$BIIB 5.0%
$ADI 4.7%
$GNRC 10.6%
$SUN 3.1%
$CHEF 10.1%
$UPST 22.1%
$ABNB 9.2%
$LTHM 10.2%
$NU 12.0%
$TRIP 10.9%
$SU 5.1%
$PLTR 12.3%
$KO 3.2%
$CLF 8.3%
$BTU 10.2%
$MAR 4.4%
$TRU 5.9%
$ZTS 4.2%
$INMD 8.9%
$GDDY 6.6%
$CAR 17.5%
$ANET 7.7%
$SEDG 12.3%
$CDNS 5.2%
$MNDY 15.4%
$CHKP 5.1%
$TDC 9.4%

Implied moves for earnings next week, 516 companies reporting:

​

$SHOP 11.2%
$ROKU 15.9%
$DDOG 11.7%
$DKNG 12.9%
$AMAT 6.3%
$DASH 13.8%
$SBLK 7.0%
$SWAV 9.9%
$RDFN 19.4%
$HAS 7.6%
$CROX 13.3%
$PARA 9.2%
$POOL 7.4%
$SHAK 9.7%
$WE 27.9%
$BLMN 9.5%
$LH 4.7%
$CSCO 6.1%
$TWLO 17.5%
$UPWK 13.6%
$FSLY 18.2%
$NTR 5.9%
$DE 4.8%
$ZG 11.6%
$RNG 14.2%
$AIG 4.4%
$AMED 8.8%
$EQIX 4.8%
$RBLX 15.1%
$TTD 14.1%
$KHC 4.6%
$BIIB 5.0%
$ADI 4.7%
$GNRC 10.6%
$SUN 3.1%
$CHEF 10.1%
$UPST 22.1%
$ABNB 9.2%
$LTHM 10.2%
$NU 12.0%
$TRIP 10.9%
$SU 5.1%
$PLTR 12.3%
$KO 3.2%
$CLF 8.3%
$BTU 10.2%
$MAR 4.4%
$TRU 5.9%
$ZTS 4.2%
$INMD 8.9%
$GDDY 6.6%
$CAR 17.5%
$ANET 7.7%
$SEDG 12.3%
$CDNS 5.2%
$MNDY 15.4%
$CHKP 5.1%
$TDC 9.4%

Portfoliovisualizer.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2022&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=100000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=SPY&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=BG&allocation2_2=7.7&symbol3=PANW&allocation3_2=7.7&symbol4=DE&allocation4_2=7.7&symbol5=ADM&allocation5_2=7.7&symbol6=MOS&allocation6_2=7.7&symbol7=LLY&allocation7_2=7.7&symbol8=CCO&allocation8_2=7.7&symbol9=NTR&allocation9_2=7.7&symbol10=CALM&allocation10_2=7.7&symbol11=NSRGY&allocation11_2=7.7&symbol12=XOM&allocation12_2=7.7&symbol13=BP&allocation13_2=7.7&symbol14=DAR&allocation14_2=7.6

Stocks are:

bg
panw
de
adm
mos
lly
cco
ntr
calm
nsrgy
xom
bp
dar

It's how he is choosing them that is proprietary to him, I have to assume the more he chooses or eliminates choices over time build build statistical weight?
I will admit, without giving up anything on his methodology there no supernatural BS, in the ten or so criteria/weightings most are objective but a couple are subjective (huge issue IMO).

The big question is, if he did have a novel approach that worked, how would he be able to show it to someone without sounding like a scammer or a crazy person... He wants to keep the methodology private which means he can only show data to get someone interested enough to want to listen more, another issue.

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-02-13 $ANET | Arista Networks: 8.79% | 3.8% | 7.32% $CDNS | Cadence Design Systems Inc: 5.39% | 3.95% | 5.29% $FE | FirstEnergy Corp: 4.2% | 4.03% | 4.04% $PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc: 14.15% | 9.93% | 12.83%

2023-02-14 $TRU | TransUnion: 6.36% | 2.85% | 6.79% $ZTS | Zoetis Inc: 4.7% | 15.65% | 4.92% $ECL | Ecolab Inc: 3.65% | 10.55% | 4.87% $SU | Suncor Energy Inc: 4.57% | 5.22% | 5.58% $MAR | Marriott International Inc: 3.91% | 5.5% | 4.45% $KO | Coca Cola Company: 3.1% | 3.52% | 3.19% $EXC | Exelon Corporation: 3.15% | 3.76% | 4.23% $QSR | Restaurant Brands International Inc: 4.54% | 1.55% | 4.6% $ABNB | Airbnb Inc: 9.01% | 12.73% | 9.27% $CPRT | Copart Inc: 5.33% | 4.65% | 4.9%

2023-02-15 $INVH | Invitation Homes Inc: 3.43% | 4.94% | 5.21% $NTR | Nutrien Ltd: 6.82% | 16.51% | 5.16% $SGEN | Seagen Inc: 7.2% | 5.76% | 5.36% $SNPS | Synopsys Inc: 4.49% | 6.07% | 6.29% $ROKU | Roku Inc: 16.94% | 3.51% | 16.91% $RSG | Republic Services Inc: 3.28% | 5.0% | 3.51% $RNG | Ringcentral Inc: 8.97% | 38.04% | 15.51% $MLM | Martin Marietta Materials Inc: 6.11% | 4.49% | 5.48% $SHOP | Shopify Inc: 9.52% | 12.08% | 11.46% $TWLO | Twilio Inc: 13.01% | 40.02% | 18.99% $ZG | Zillow Group Inc: 11.38% | 13.54% | 10.7% $GNRC | Generac Holding Inc: 9.31% | 8.57% | 11.32% $ET | Energy Transfer LP: 5.05% | 3.15% | 4.08% $FIS | Fidelity National Information Services Inc: 5.17% | 28.59% | 8.92% $AIG | American International Group Inc: 4.78% | 0.88% | 4.27% $AWK | American Water Works: 2.33% | 2.35% | 3.76% $ADI | Analog Devices Inc: 3.83% | 6.09% | 6.1% $GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation: 6.04% | 9.45% | 5.5% $BIIB | Biogen Inc: 6.55% | 7.27% | 5.16% $CSCO | Cisco Systems Inc: 6.05% | 1.94% | 6.38% $WAT | Waters Corp: 6.16% | 1.22% | 6.09% $RBLX | Roblox Corporation: 22.05% | 25.07% | 15.36% $TTD | The Trade Desk Inc: 18.19% | 24.35% | 14.78% $EQIX | Equinix Inc: 4.04% | 5.63% | 5.05% $MFC | Manulife Financial Corporation: 4.14% | 6.24% | 5.3%

2023-02-16 $XP | XP Inc: 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.6% $WST | West Pharmaceutical Services Inc: 6.56% | 11.45% | 7.33% $HUBS | HubSpot Inc: 9.73% | 15.08% | 11.71% $EPAM | EPAM Systems Inc: 7.47% | 6.7% | 9.03% $DASH | DoorDash Inc: 8.63% | 1.39% | 12.56% $DLR | Digital Realty Trust Inc: 4.41% | 3.6% | 4.71% $DDOG | Datadog Inc: 11.58% | 8.16% | 11.57% $ZBRA | Zebra Technologies Corp: 9.88% | 14.9% | 9.19% $ED | Consolidated Edison Inc: 2.51% | 0.88% | 2.94% $VMC | Vulcan Materials: 6.0% | 5.32% | 4.21% $SO | Southern Co: 2.4% | 3.23% | 3.47% $AMAT | Applied Materials Inc: 5.63% | 2.53% | 6.89% $LH | Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings: 4.99% | 11.16% | 6.14% $PPL | PPL Corporation: 2.72% | 2.14% | 3.67% $ETR | Entergy Corp: 2.69% | 4.36% | 3.38%

2023-02-17 $DE | Deere and Co: 5.65% | 7.57% | 5.57%

Have you looked into Nutrien? (NTR.TO) big Canadian crop inputs and potash miner

Canadian fertilizer stocks - ANDE, CTVA, NTR.TO,

1. 250/mo fixed (3K/year), I do the bookkeeping myself
2. Tech
3. Yes, it's a fixed cost which is wildly better than an hourly-billing firm (which we originally used)
4. Year-end NTR, tax filings, consulting, CRA communications
5. Yes, required for financial decision-making, financing applications, tax filings, etc.

52 yo with at least a 15 year time horizon before needing to start touching anything. Several accounts across me and my spouse, some tax advantaged, some not, some managed, some self-managed. Largely buy and hold. And hold and hold. And buy. Had a wee bit of a diversification scare in the late 90's which may have left a lasting impression.

Canadian securities:

BNS – 1.04%

BAM – 0.14%

BN – 0.41%

BNRE – 0.25%

BMO – 1.16%

CXI – 0.16%

FFH – 0.93%

IFC – 0.71%

MFC – 0.38%

ONEX – 0.27%

RY – 1.05%

TD – 1.3%

AQN – 0.19%

CNQ – 0.52%

CVE – 0.76%

ENB – 0.97%

EFX – 0.33%

GEI – 0.31%

IPCO – 0.28%

PSI – 0.21%

PPL – 0.26%

SU – 0.52%

TPZ – 0.36%

WCP – 0.52%

TRP – 0.59%

ADEN – 0.23%

CNR – 1.18%

CJT – 0.27%

EFN – 0.34%

FTT – 0.49%

MTL – 0.22%

TIH – 0.6%

WCN – 0.4%

MX – 0.17%

NKL – 0.22%

SJ – 0.67%

NTR – 0.62%

GIB.A – 0.28%

LSPD – 0.27%

NVEI – 0.07%

REAL – 0.23%

SHOP – 0.78%

AT – 0.13%

BCE – 0.46%

RCI.B – 0.35%

RAY.A – 0.31%

T – 0.7%

TRL-H – 0.06%

BIPC – 0.41%

BIP.UN – 0.41%

BEP.UN – 0.22%

BEPC – 0.06%

PIF – 0.34%

ATD – 1.14%

XTC – 0.12%

LNR – 0.23%

MTY – 0.24%

QSR – 0.14%

SRU.UN – 0.25%

KSI – 0.27%

More Canadian stuff:

HCAL – 0.43%

VCN – 3.45%

Other – 0.72%

Canadian denominated ETF’s, mostly non-Canadian holdings:

VGRO – 1.65%

XAW – 1.55%

MESH – 0.45%

MTAV – 0.5%

VIDY – 2.09%

VIU – 3.16%

ZEM – 0.9%

ZCH – 0.39%

Other – 1.74%

US securities:

APPL – 3.95%

APPF – 0.18%

ASML – 0.79%

ADSK – 0.14%

AVGO – 0.47%

CDNS – 0.23%

CIEN – 0.4%

CSCO – 0.3%

CRWD – 0.52%

HUBS – 0.22%

MFST – 0.86%

MU – 0.44%

MNDY – 0.36%

NVDA – 0.73%

NOW – 0.18%

SNOW – 0.2%

STEM – 0.23%

TWLO – 0.09%

GILD – 0.63%

ABCL – 0.33%

ABBV – 0.22%

CNC – 0.56%

DOCS – 0.22%

MRK – 0.51%

MCK – 1.04%

MEDP – 0.17%

TEVA – 0.26%

VRTX – 0.46%

BAC – 0.17%

BRK.B – 1.41%

JPM – 0.94%

PYPL – 0.26%

AMZN – 1.26%

BWA – 0.42%

FTCH – 0.11%

MCD – 0.61%

MELI – 0.45%

SBUX – 0.51%

TSLA – 0.29%

ABB – 0.31%

ACLLY – 0.01%

UNP – 0.19%

GOOGL – 0.51%

BOC – 0.3%

LYV – 0.19%

PINS – 0.23%

RBLX – 0.18%

DIS – 0.61%

KO – 0.7%

CVS – 0.34%

K – 0.58%

FIZZ – 0.22%

PG – 0.17%

XOM – 0.54%

SLB – 1.03%

HAL – 0.58%

IP – 0.13%

US denominated ETF’s:

VTI – 1.26%

VXUS 11.49%

ARKQ – 0.16%

BOTZ – 0.17%

IRBO – 0.18%

ROBO – 0.18%

ROBT – 0.18%

Other - Cash and fixed:

Cash – 11.56%

Other Bond Funds/ETF’s – 3.52%

right. anyone besides NTR you're looking at? They seem to have had quite the runnup the past month and fertilizer seems more seasonal.

I would add agriculture -- ADM, BG, NTR people gotta eat, and the US is a powerhouse at corn and soybean growing.

not crazy at all to gain some exposure, it's essentially giving you exposure to materials/commodities and add diversity to a portfolio. To heavily bet on any one trend or sector would be a bit more crazy... or at least more speculative.

Personally I would play this trend by investing in agriculture innovation, optimization/technology & equipment in companies like Corteva (optimization) or John Deere (precision agriculture). You have to be aware of the stock valuations though so I am not saying these are are buy. Just that this is how I would approach it.

Having some exposure directly to fertilizer is not a bad idea either. Many portfolios hold positions in Nutrien (NTR) or CF. They are more cyclical though and go through boom busts cycles.

https://www.deere.ca/en/agriculture/?cid=PPC_MDS_00319_01294&gclid=CjwKCAiAwomeBhBWEiwAM43YIGtfQ_t1feyuc5ST-gAxkPGyGs4NEaeBFzcWcWCMdX-PECNrKMb48BoCSNIQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

https://preview.redd.it/8pwjg0ntr4ca1.jpeg?width=1436&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e61037a943ed8ffc225d852e2fccca96ccfaa9ea

NTR calls.

I went risky and am shorting the market. Auto loans aren’t being backstopped by the Fed. Ally bank has a huge subprime auto loan position so I’m shorting it. I’m also long on KAR which does repo and auctions. Food is another area I’m long in. I have positions in WEAT, CORN, SOYB, and COW. As well as long positions in CF, IPI, and NTR, which are fertilizer stocks.

A lot of woman like NTR so makes sense

Only sick freaks like NTR.

It's kinda weird about NTR, why is the stock going down? There will be significant enough demand for fertilizer around spring/summer.

1. Sempra (NYSE:SRE)

2. American States Water (NYSE:AWR)

3. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR)

Yep earning across the board missed or bearly made it. I think the next cpi report will humble the market in December. Puts on Comcast, Bank of America, NTR, calls on AMC and puts on Coinbase 🤔 do you guys have any suggestions on the banking side ?

Most recently: CNR.TO, GOOG, VFV (VOO in $CAD), and soon to be NTR.TO

CNR - Love Canadian railroads and they're being asked to move a lot more grain and other products lately. Last time the world had this type of stress on supply chains they took a decent jump over a couple years and they're just a great company overall. They've trailed CP in recent years in growth but I like the value.

GOOG - I don't care if they're ad revenue is down, it's Google. I see no reason to be worried in the long term.

VFV - For Americans on this sub, it's literally VOO but in Canadian $ and I don't have taxes withheld on dividends. Self explanatory purchase (I think)

NTR - Canada has the world largest potash reserves in the world and this is the biggest potash mining company, and also other fertilizers. The next 3 are Russia, Belarus and China and without getting into a political debate, I'll just say tensions are getting high between them and the Western countries. The next 6 largest producers combined don't match Canada's reserves. Haven't bought yet but they will most likely be my next purchase.

Ok, papa Elon. I hear you.

Calls on NTR, SMG, and MOS. Fertilizer is going to moon.

Down in sympathy with NTR from what I can see.

NTR would like to know your location

NTR Nov Calls. Has been very profitable this year, phosphate plant is close to coming back to full production

Earnings for NTR Nov 3. NTR has been very profitable ytd

NTR , thought into mid 2023

Been a buyer of $GOOGL, $META, $ABBV, $INTC, $SONY, $NTR

CF, MOS, UAN, NTR

Ntr is my play

I was looking at UAN, CTVA, MOS, NTR, and CF. From what I’ve seen, UAN is a big nitrogen producer and CTVA just got funded by a Fed handout to support US Ag

most on this sub, probably really likes NTR

NTR when it's $40 sometime in the next couple years.

NTR = Nutrien?

It's all tech shit dude. Go pull up NTR or some other shit and put it on that list too and see how it looks.

Ntr

Index funds bro. Or buy calls in NTR as this war ramps up

In this one instance, I’m ok with NTR

Natural gas is staggeringly expensive in much of the rest of the world. It is the main feedstock in some fertilizer. Fertilizer is necessary to feed the world. Fert Co's in Europe all curtailing or ceasing production. Look at fertilizer plays in the US where natural gas is cheap. CF, NTR, MOS, UAN. These have all had a good run and pulled back recently as this is not planting season, but will roar again soon. UAN is an MLP which paid $10 per unit last quarter. Will be lower in Nov, as closed for some scheduled maintenance, but Q1 payment probably $12. Expect circa $40 next year on a $130 stock. Jmho.

US fertilizer stocks are at the beginning of their cycle. Should do very well over the next 4-5 years. It takes 4-5 years to build new plants, feedstock of natural gas is relatively very cheap in the US compared to Europe, grain stores are at historic lows, crop yields fairly poor, crop prices are high. I like $UAN the most, $CF, $NTR, $MOS also good candidates.

Also in the fertilizer business NTR ADM MOS CF

You are correct. I should have included $UAN. Market cap $1.4B, P/E 4.77, EPS $28.93. They would be a very similar small cap version of $CF just like $IPI is a small cap to $NTR and $MOS.

Be ready for a migration of European producers from Europe to NA on based on this..

I wrote an article a little over a year ago on NTR, maybe you’d find it interesting.

https://www.tavs2cents.ca/blog/nutrien-stock-analysis

I like $NTR because of market share and location.

Id also suggest you consider $SQM and $APD.

Bought both MOS and NTR today.

I picked up calls in CHK today. Holding calls in LNG, TELL, EQT, VET and bought some ferts... NTR and MOS.

Fartilizer stocks - UAN, CF, MOS, NTR - outperforming also showing commodities inflation isn’t over

MOS, NTR, CF are the ones I've heard of

US fert stocks. US has 'relatively cheap' natural gas compared to Europe, Ammonia based ferts are very profitable to produce in the US. Europe is currently shutting production facilities down. US may be shipping urea & ammonia over to Europe for further processing into fertilizers. Expect a bull cycle in US fertilizer firms for 3-5 years. I'm long CVR-Partners (UAN) but CF, MOS, NTR would also be good choices.

Canadian with strong oil convictions:

Energy - 46% SGY 11% MEG 7% VET 5% CVE 5% IYE 5% HXE 2% TVE 2% SDE 2% WCE 1% ITE 1% PPR 1% GTE 1% OBE 1% RZE 1% PEI 1%

Long Hold ETFs - 21% QQQ 12% ZWC 4% VIG 4% GNOM 1%

Real Estate / Land - 8% VRE 4% FPI 2% LAND 2%

Long Hold Stocks - 15% CNR 3% CP 3% GOOGL 2% BRK.B 2% COST 2% NVDA 2% ISRG 1%

Misc - 10% BALL 4% NTR 2% AXON 2% IYM 1% RHC 1%

Planning to shift out of oil into tech ETFs when there’s some sort of resolution to the looming oil supply crunch.

Positions are ADM, BG, CF, NTR, FMC, KL.

AGG picks like ADM NTR CF

Yeah, but instead you should be long on fertilizer manufacturers like CF, NTR, and MOS. Farmers in Idaho are heavily subsidized and too big to fail

Tickers of Interest

Gamma Max Cross

• EPD 09/16 27P for $0.50 or less
• STWD 12/16 24P for $1.10 or less
• PRU 09/16 105P for $3.00 or less
• NTR 09/16 90P for $2.95 or less
• CSIQ 09/16 38P for $1.40 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• JPM 09/16 120P for $1.90 or less
• DASH 09/16 75C for $4.90 or less
• BKR 10/21 25/26 Strangle for $3.10 or less combined
• BMBL 09/16 35C for $1.25 or less
• WEBR 09/16 7.5P for $0.90 or less

Trading Thesis

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.

FAQ

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.

You guys think that MOS and NTR are reaching again their recent highs due to upscaling due to sanctions against Russia?

How is NTR red after those numbers?

Tickers of Interest

Gamma Max Cross

• CDW 08/19 175P for $2.10 or less
• VRSN 08/19 185P for $1.50 or less
• NFE 08/19 45P for $1.00 or less
• UGI 09/16 40P for $0.55 or less
• HTZ 09/16 20P for $1.15 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• NTR 09/16 80/85 Strangle for $6.75 or less
• PRU 08/19 95P for $1.30 or less
• OTIS 09/16 75P for $1.55 or less
• ABC 11/18 140/145 Strangle for $11.75 or less
• AEM 09/16 40P for $1.60 or less

Trading Strategy

Gamma Max is the price where a hypothetical portfolio of all option open interest for the ticker produces the most gamma.

Delta Neutral is the price where a hypothetical portfolio of all option open interest for the ticker produces the least delta.

Simply touching those calculated price levels isn't enough to make a trading decision. You need to consider what the ticker's price did the previous times it touched those levels. You should also take into context the broader market movement.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

A bunch of fertilizer stocks reporting earnings this week. CF/MOS today, NTR tomorrow I think.

And NTR

CF ,NTR, MOS

I consider myself a pretty decent guy... and you're telling me to invest in NTR?

Bro.

Any idea why $MOS is under performing the other two? Actually, NTR is relatively new so I guess we can't count that but CF had a huge drop along with MOS back in 2008 but CF has now hit ATHs whereas MOS only got up to half of what it did in 2008 before the plummet.

Not sure if this means it has potential to go up much more or it's a much weaker company.

Edit: Actually, looking at their financials, both have the same market cap and around the same share float. MOS's income is twice as much though. MOS also has more trading volume.

Oh, and NTR is triple their market caps. Maybe MOS has the most potential of the bunch?

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 1534 companies reporting. This up/down ->

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$AMD 7.7%
$PYPL 10.8%
$SQ 12.5%
$AMC 12.0%
$TWLO 14.0%
$LYFT 17.6%
$FUBO 17.1%
$NET 14.2%
$DASH 14.8%
$EXPE 11.3%
$CVNA 20.9%
$ZG 15.6%
$OPEN 18.5%
$TEAM 12.0%
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$RKT 9.2%
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$EBAY 7.0%
$FSLY 18.1%
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$BKNG 7.2%
$NTR 5.8%
$OXY 6.6%
$GILD 3.8%
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$RNG 16.1%
$EXAS 10.1%
$MRNA 8.6%
$CVS 4.5%
$REGN 6.7%
$YUM 5.4%
$SSYS 9.2%
$SMG 9.3%
$TUP 24.1%
$PINS 16.5%
$CAR 14.9%
$ANET 8.8%
$CF 6.3%
$RIG 11.2%
$SPG 6.7%
$ZI 14.2%
$CAT 5.1%
$JBLU 8.4%
$UBER 11.7%
$BP 5.3%
$RACE 4.5%
$ZBRA 8.6%
$SPWR 11.4%
$TAP 6.4%

It's not just oil. The oil stocks make up a HUGE position of my port. But the agriculture stocks like $MOS, $CF, $NTR, or $IPI will 10x the oil gains.

A funny story. In 2008 I was long stocks like Potash, Monsanto, Tera Nitro, and Mosaic. Out of those 4 only $MOS is left. I lost big in 2008. I went from up 3x to down 50% when commodities crashed. So what you are saying is technically true.

This time I do own a lot of $MOS at an avg cost basis of $26. And the fertilizers make up 10% of my port over 50%. But I think you are underestimating the upside of the commodity stocks. Wheat & Corn futures are just that. Futures prices of the commodity. Mosaic as an example is a stock/business that pays a dividend and may offer share buybacks. A commodity is just an input. A company or stock takes that commodity and adds a service.

Edit _ Terra Nitrogen not Titian International. $CF bought out Terra. Bayer bought out Monsanto. $NTR bought Potash Sach.

$CF, $MOS, $NTR, $IPI, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOYB. If you are risk adverse buy a commodity etf for agriculture. I am bullish on all but especially $MOS. But I am more of a gambler than most here and am extremely bullish on commodities.

Well less worse than MLMers who recruit more instead of selling product and call themselves "eNTr3pren3ur5". But still, Andrew Tate is cringe.

NTR is a $40 stock

I'm scooping up tons of NVIDIA and AMD. Also scooping up silver and agriculture stocks for a recession. Lithium and cobalt mining also. LAND, FPI, NTR, AG, ALB. During the upcoming recession commodities and land should outperform the market and tech stocks with potential high rates of return like NVIDIA are too good to pass up

What is the ticker for corn? NTR?

Added to $IPI for the 2nd straight day. All grain futures are up, $SOYB, $WEAT, $CORN. The fertilizers like $MOS, $IPI, and $NTR are going to start rallying with the grain futures.

I would not recommend investing in commodities producers unless you have good knowledge of underlying commodities and markets in general. But since you ask some individual equities

Agri: AMD, BG Fertilizer: NTR, MOS, CF Seeds: CTVA, FMC Miners: RIO, BHP, FCX

I've been trading these in the past but not anymore. They are majors and really top of the pile commodity producers.

Agriculture/fertilizer stocks continue getting crushed. MOS down 8%, NTR down 7%, John Deere ($DE) down 6.5%, CF down nearly 9%.

Relevant Tweet; a reminder not to chase headlines.

It looks like agriculture and wheat in particular is starting to cool down based on futures data. WEAT peaked back on May 17th and is now about 20% down.

What happened to food shortages? (Not that we want them)

Edit:

• MOS (potash/fertilizer) peaked at 77.98 on April 19th this year, and is now 50. That's a 36% drop.
• NTR (fertilizer) is down 24% from its peak April 18th.
• DBA (Agriculture ETF) down 8% from peak on May 17th.
• Corn down 9% from peak May 17th.

People talking about gas rationing. But don't worry, "tHe goVerNmEnt wiLl sHuT oFf yOuR eV tO coNtrOl yOu"

ThE PreSidenT DoeSnt coNtrOle tHe PrIcE oF OiL

🌱 🇨🇦

Canada's Nutrien $NTR, the world's largest fertilizer producer, said on Thursday it plans to increase potash production to an annual 18 million tonnes by 2025 to mitigate supply uncertainty from Eastern Europe.

VALE and RIO and BHP are large high dividend but they are so heavy on Iron that your primarily invested in Iron. Its why i'm in FCX instead of one of them. I'm trying to be pureplay on copper. I did invest in some lithium earlier and also some potash. u get potash with BHP and I think VALE but I figured If I want potash get a potash company like NTR, if I want copper get FCX. If I want potash and lithium then SQM, if I want lithium only then ALB. But pureplays keep my brain from smoking. But u still have to be in large companies the multiples (edit I meant multiples higher on larger size mining companies cause the risk is lower with them and higher with the smaller) and risk are higher on smaller companies.

Fertilizer companies another angle to make some $ here? Thinking nutrien (NTR)

all I've got is NTR

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it. Seems like a solid company, everyone that I talk to who works with nutrien says they have outstanding customer service.

I started acquiring NTR shares last week. My only fear is that ag input demand falls off a cliff if/when Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine bring supply back into the market when Nutrien’s new facilities come online in 23’/24’/25’.

BHP didn't buy POT. AGU did, and renamed the company to NTR following the merger.

Calls on shit?

I don't know what it is, but I really like $NTR. I can't stop talking about it with my wife's boyfriend.

I would say the same if you don't also own the grains like $WEAT or $CORN. Or Fertilizers like $NTR, $MOS, $CF, or $IPI. Are you waiting for ATH's to buy in? Food is the 2nd less talked about component of 8.6% inflation.

I did a very cursory comparison of Nutrien (NTR) and IPI, and there are a few things I think may be driving the underperformance. Although IPI has less debt and better margins than NTR, they’re a smaller company; IPI made $303mm as of 3/31 (assuming annually?) whereas NTR made $30bn. I am assuming that due to the inflation going on all over the economy investors are prioritizing scale over better margins and lack of debt. Additionally NTR pays a dividend, which serves as ballast amidst the volatility markets have been going through.

Then there are a few nuances to each company’s business. Based on the Fidelity blurb describing IPI, part of their business is supplying potash and potassium chloride for ag, but they also supply those feedstocks to oil and gas industry along with water, and salts for road maintenance (according to their Q1 report this segment has been affected by mild winter weather), pools, and animal feed. And they almost exclusively operate in the US. On the other hand, Nutrien focuses on ag inputs and some financing for their products which makes it much more of a pure-play. It has a much larger international presence, including distribution centers (IPI has 3 in the western US, NTR’s are all over the map both globally and in North America, plus they seem to focus more on the eastern US). So this international business is probably one of the main draws given how the food supply’s been affected all over. There could be differences in the efficiency of their production processes too but I don’t have the chemistry knowledge to research that very well.

Dvn, ipi, ovv, ntr, btegf, Zeus, eqnr, adm, lng,cpe, cf

In fact I shorted a lot of the stocks you own by buying SARK - which is the inverse of Cathie wood’s ARKK that has alot of your stocks

NTR

NTR Aug puts

Look into $BTU, $MOS, $NTR, those have been very profitable for me this year.