Shhhhhh NVDA go gently into that good night the more you trash the harder it will be
I completely agree! Anyone who didn't buy NVDA puts off that regarded spike is not black.
If you didn't buy NVDA puts off that regarded spike you ain't black!
NVDA looking ripe for puts.
hmmm NVDA looking ripe for puts.
Markets making unexpected moves. None expect aapl to crash so this leg down will be intiated by aapl.
Nvda amd might stay stable and hold 120 nvda 58 amd line.
Long term I hold the whole market. For short-term taxable fun:
I focus on asset allocation and sectors, and select for quality and value within. Financials were highly undervalued for a while, still decent. Communications, RE, and cyclicals are still quite undervalued IMHO. Tech will have great opportunities. I already like MSFT et al., for those more growth oriented and sensitive to interest rates I'll wait a bit. Once that happens, NET, SHOP, ZS, and others show some promise. I like NVDA and NFLX, though they've already risen quite a bit from their nadirs. As cash flows back into riskier items, health care and utilities will underperform quite a bit. Style-wise, small and value looked amazing for a while, now plainly good. Growth presents isolated opportunities. Personally, energy is just a big ball of uncertainty now, and seems to have always been more contingent on geopolitics and weather than fundamentals. Internationally, I like most of the far east. Europe will obviously look good eventually, the question is where the bottom might be. I don't like bottom-timing so I have slowly added small hedged positions. I tend to think EM is primed to really perform well once current morbidities finally relent. I'm staying away from RE for a while longer. That market moves slowly.
Yup, just looking at short term for a pull back, maybe a 50% retracement of this latest run up...so TSM back to $70 and NVDA back to 120's... a higher low than the October low.
Probably just gunna be email chains from NVDA and TSMC
Anyone else think nvda will be under 150 this week?
NVDA always has weird price action, man.
wait... how is NVDA a $400billon company?
who looks at NVDA at 157 and says "yes, this is a good price"
This market is unreal, said fine I’ll sell my NVDA puts after the minimal 10:30 dump
Agree. It's not no growth, but I think people are going to have to be a lot more selective and the sort of "GOOG AAPL AMZN AAPL NVDA AMD" portfolio isn't going to be able to be relied upon like it has been for years.
>FANG+ Constituents: >$AAPL 143.14 -0.75% $AMZN 93.14 -0.86% $BABA 80.06 +5.48% $BIDU 100.66 +6.29% $META 109.57 +0.73% $GOOG 95.57 -0.71% $NFLX 279.44 -0.59% $NVDA 157.88 -0.26% $TSLA 182.16 -0.42% $MSFT 240.92 -0.35%
^IGSquawk ^@IGSquawk ^at ^2022-11-29 ^10:03:23 ^EST-0500
Sold my puts. Now holding C147 AAPL, C162.5 NVDA, C400 SPY. Lets go Daddy Powell
NVDA will be 100 P/E soon and regarded wallstreet will still pump it
I’ve been testing a directional bet strategy.
Strategy: directional butterfly opened day before earnings on weekly series, idea to take low cost high risk/reward bets that take advantage of expensive far otm options to profit large swings in price. Ideal environment is high volatility and high speculation on earnings.
What’s cool is you can usually cut loses around -50% or less when wrong and typical profit has been 125-200%, you can be wrong more than you’re right directionally and still win overall. Position is short Vega which hedges your delta/gamma position since no matter what after earnings you gain off IV crush. Typically if the stock doesn’t move much you can still close around opening cost even when it’s entirely otm.
- VIX is elevated
- high liquidity across option chain, high volume and OI
- min 350%-400% return on max risk
- high IV rank
- nearest long leg within implied move
- short leg at or outside implied move
- ideally penny increment priced (wide bid/ask kills this)
- close within an hour after earnings, win or lose, target +125-200% return on risk for wins and cut loses as quick as possible
- target 1-2 dte min after ER
Qualitative criteria to help pick direction
- several past earnings beats/misses bet that direction, look at competitor earnings beat/miss (a peer beat/miss typically drops IV so you can close at small profit if you change your opinion on the direction)
- large/mega cap stocks seem to work best
- look at put/call skew vs historic and peer group, bet with the skew if it intuitively makes sense
- identify catalysts that would magnify ups/downs relative to historical (macro stuff cpi/industry outlook/world events etc.) reasons high IV might still be underpriced
- inverse zacks/Barrons/etc. free articles with clear bias near ER
- bet sizing should be small, correlated to relatively low confidence in direction pick
General idea is to find quick and simple reasons to pick a direction when the return/volatility hurdles present themselves.
Example win: WMT 145/150/155 call butterfly opened at $70 debit. Trading around 142 when opened. Closed at $200 credit at open. Direction correct movement within implied move.
Example Neutral Loss: NVDA 155/145/135 put butterfly opened at $150 debit. Trading around $161 when opened. After ER direction was right but not magnitude, closed at $147 credit. Short Vegas saved the position since the sold otm contracts lose most of the extrinsic value and near the money long leg retains more value
Example total loss: RIVN put butterfly opened at $65 credit and after ER the stock blasted in the opposite direction. Attempted to close but no fill
Still dialing in my criteria but it’s been working well in this market.
Back in 2017 jim cramer predicted NVDA would crash after earnings. He was right
Most driver on biz side of $nvda is machine learning as big corps are expereimenting what they can do with it,
Will be machine scan court documents
Crazy kitten project for air force
Test bed for FSD with digital twin
As for $nvda, the market really hopes on it's data center revenue growth, client side, not so much, if you look at stat from steam itself , majority is running on hardware lower than 3060, I guess most of these gamers are poor kids from developing countries
Your entire "DD" sounds like you just discovered Steam, or you are bagholding one of the companies.
Steam is a direct competitor to Microsoft Store, I don't know how you think MSFT would benefit from it when Microsoft Store is doing so shit that MSFT gave up and listed some of their top games like Microsoft Flight Simulator and Minecraft Dungeons on Steam.
NVDA is going to eat shit next quarter, their 4000 series aren't flying off the shelf because of all the scandals and shitty engineering, scalpers are struggling to get rid of the 4000 series cards they hoarded.
EA and ATVI are some of the most hated gaming companies for consumers on steam, and their event sales are usually one of the lowest. EA is carried by Apex, and ATVI by COD. Both's recent future guidance is dog shit and was already talked about recently.
PS5 is doing so bad that SONY went back on their words and started listing console exclusive on PC.
Also, Steam is essentially a gamers' equivalent of booze and hoes, top selling games are either triple A games by a big publisher, porn games, or skimpy weeb games by Koei-Tecmo/Capcom/Square Enix. Top 5 games with the most concurrent players are literally f2p on cosmetic/battle pass system.
Your post would make sense last year or 2020, not now where all of them are going to take a hit due to economy situation.
Have NVDA 152.5p for 12/9
Sell? Down 25% cuz I bought last week
The odds of the stock ramping in the 31 days you cannot own it again are small. Stop trying to be too cute by half with the options. If you want to preserve your exposure, just buy a different semi stock like MU or NVDA. They all trade in very close tandem.
fuck me, shoulda all in'd on NVDA puts
what happen to AMZN , NVDA and TSLA bulls..?? they were on fire at open.!!
NVDA over 160 seems a tad bit expensive
Just to put things in perspective, people write entire books on these topics, as well as training sites (like Option Alpha) that charge subscription fees for that depth of detail. There's no simple and free recipe for selecting trades and exploiting opportunities -- that's basically the core skill set of a successful trader and may take thousands of trades to master.
So best we can do in a Reddit post is point you in the right direction, but you'll have hours and hours of additional study and practice ahead of you. No doubt every single item I list below will raise a couple dozen new questions in your mind, but I can't help you answer those. You'll have to find the answers yourself. That's what pointing in the right direction means.
Since you have a bullish bias, you are already in a challenging situation, since the overall market is bearish. There simply may not be any good bull trades of any type whatsoever on a day to day basis. So even with the scheme I summarize below, you may come up empty.
To get you started, I will summarize what I do, but please understand, this is only one of about a million different ways to solve these problems. I don't claim it is the best or only way to do this.
Start by building a watchlist of underlyings to track (I explain how below).
Every trading day, sort the watchlist by IV Rank. Look for IV Rank above 50% (I explain why below). If there are no underlyings that meet that criteria, give up for that day.
For every candidate underlying, find the next monthly expiration that is as close to 45 DTE as possible. If there are none close to 45 DTE, drop the candidate and try the next one.
For each surviving candidate, examine the option chain for the selected expiration for contracts near 30 delta OTM. If there are none +/- 5 delta, drop the candidate. Or, if the bid/ask spread and volume for that strike is poor (bid/ask spread is more than 20% of the bid and/or volume is 0), drop the candidate.
Assuming there are any candidates left, open credit trades on the selected strike and expiration.
NOTE: Some of the criteria above can be waived for a high enough conviction trade. You may think that XYZ presents an opportunity that is too good to pass up, even though the fundamentals are shaky and IV Rank is below 50%. The one thing you should never compromise on, however, is the liquidity criteria. If the XYZ 30 delta put has 0 volume and $1.00/$3.00 bid/ask, avoid like the plague.
You may find it useful to learn how to analyze stocks and funds for short term trading opportunities. It would take an entire book to explain all the ways to do this, so what I do is first make sure that the candidate company has liquid option trading. If it doesn't offer options at all, or the combined volume of all the options chains is less than 100, it's a non-starter.
Then find a good analysis site, like gurufocus.com, and examine the fundamentals of the company. I generally want growth companies that aren't meme stocks and that have reasonable fundamentals, like not too much debt if it is an oil company or tech company, forward earnings are forecast to grow, a reasonable amount of volatility (so not an electric utility or a regional bank), etc., etc.
This screening should be guided by a macro-economic thesis, like oil will do well during the Ukraine war, or staple good will do better than luxury items during a recession, etc., and base your screening around that thesis. Learning how to do this will take a lot of time and study and reading of financial news daily.
Finally, examine the IV history of a typical option contract (ATM monthly put or call), or the aggregate IV of the underlying if your broker lists that. If the 52-week IV range is narrow, like 10%-12%, there isn't enough volatility to trade, so drop it from the list. If it's decent, like 46%-86% (reading off the NVDA aggregate IV from my broker), it's a keeper.
Shoot for about 50 underlyings for your watchlist, give or take 20.
You can kick-start your pool of initial candidates by going to barchart.com and looking at the daily option volume leaders near the end of a market day, because high volume tends to correlate with good liquidity. Screen out any underlyings with share prices less than $10 or higher than you can afford, like BLK going for $700/share.
Rather than build a watchlist from scratch, some people pay for a screening service, like MarketChameleon.com, to screen for opportunities on a daily basis. They are agnostic to macros and underlyings and just want the top opportunities of whatever the market is offering that day. One day they may trade ABC, the next day XYZ, because the screen turned those up, not that they know or care what ABC or XYZ do.
Other people use Technical Analysis to screen for candidates. That's another rabbit hole that could take hundreds of hours of studying to learn.
WHY IV RANK?
Your goal as a credit trader is to find opportunities to exploit buyers overpaying for volatility. If someone buys a put and pays for 100 units of volatility from you, but by expiration only 50 units of volatility actually happens, you pocket the overpayment. Sellers demand higher premiums for higher volatility, because volatility increases their risk of having to honor the contract when exercised.
While IV Rank isn't a perfect predictor of overpaying for volatility, the higher the IV Rank, the more the deck is stacked in your favor. Of course, there is also higher risk that the volatility will actually be realized, or worse, you undersold the volatility (you sold 100 units, but 200 units were realized).
More about trading volatility here (although these are delta-neutral approaches, not a bullish bias like you asked for):
I'll stop here, this is getting long. I've barely scratched the surface of just one way to approach trade selection. There are dozens of completely different ways to do this, but even this brief summary was super long. That should give you some idea of what you are in for.
great thing i closed out my NVDA puts and switched them to TSLA
closed my NVDA poots from last week for a loss
it can safely drill now
My local microcenter still has 5 RTX 4080s sitting on the shelf as I type. NVDA is going to have a terrible quarter.
as a high regarded investor, i can say that NVDA pumping is extremely regarded
Lovely bulls please keep pumping NVDA, AMZN and SPY ... need cheaper puts to average down.
Is NVDA revisiting 150 this week?
Intel will inevitably steal some of TSM's market share in the foundry business because of the CHIPS act. The US government is incentivizing AMD and NVDA to use INTC to the tune of millions and potentially billions of subsidies in order to have less reliance on foreign supply chains and to bring American chipmaking back to the forefront. Whether INTC pulls that off - who knows. And this market share steal won't be materialized until 2026 or so, so there's definitely still time for TSM to run
is it too much to ask that AAPL and NVDA tank 10%+ this week? I think not
I asked on discord it’s thoughts on the top 5 most mentioned stocks in WSB (SPY, NVDA, TSLA, DIS, AAPL) he was bullish on SPY and TSLA, bearish on the rest
Visual Mod is:
Bullish on SPY for Jan 23 exp
Bullish on TSLA for Jan 23 exp
Bearish on DIS, NVDA, and AAPL for Jan 23 exp
*source: asking him on the discord because im a genius
How many people ask themselves, "Why didn't I join Theta gang when I was up big?" As a former Apple put holder and current NVDA put holder I'll admit I'm asking myself that very question daily.
NVDA and AMD are TSM customers.
Lots of names in the sector that will profit.
TSM if you are okay with the geo political risk.
ASML will profit even if their is geo political risk.
Intel if you believe the geo political risk.
I don't see a world where most of the names don't make money. More and more people will have smart phones, PCs, laptops, tablets, cloud servers, servers for businesses.
More and more semis will be needed at all levels and node sizes.
Sure there are some high PE names like NVDA. But also tons of under 20 forward PE names as well, like QCOM.
There aren't any good stocks to trade options on below $10 a share, let alone $3. They have low share prices for a reason.
Why not just trade $1 wide put credit spreads? Then you can trade any stock with $1 strike intervals, like AAPL or NVDA, and no spread will cost you more than $100 of collateral.
NVDA, down over 50% from its high and still has an insane premium on the stock.
COST, a retail giant that has also has an insane premium on the stock.
Same with WMT too. Their net income is the same as it was back in 2018 and has gone nowhere over a decade. Their last earnings was pretty trash too yet their stock ran for some reason. I don’t understand the premium for this company other then it provides stability. Once we see the economy get better and those fears go away I can easily see this stock falling.
Consumer staples like PEP, KO, JNJ, PG, etc. these stocks have been trading in the high 20s P/E range cause with fears of a recession people are plowing money into safety. I own PEP and JNJ and haven’t put money in them in awhile cause of their lofty valuation. I can’t wait for the day for these stocks to take a hit and add to my position. As of right now they do nothing but run and stock price and trade at a premium so right now I am continuing to hold and avoid.
NVDA. controversial one but-insane PE. Crypto winter will hurt them, China restrictions, tech slowdown.
Stocks is a long term investment. Since COVID new investors think long term is 6-12 months. I’ve owned stocks line Microsoft for 15-20 years. When I buy a stock longterm, I’m looking at 3-5-7-10 years out. Investing in stocks is parking money, letting it grow and not needing it as your spending money. Apple, google, nvda, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon and big companies like that will without a doubt see your money put in them today worth far more 3-5-10 years from now. It’s not a gamble or casino get rich quick scheme. It’s a slow accumulation and building of wealth tool
Not always. You can go long amd/nvda and buy puts on soxl for example to hedge those longs.
Thats why i say there are tons of ways to hedge both a short and long position.
If I invested in TSLA at like 115-150 a share and NVDA at 33 back in 2015 instead of buying a 50k car I could be retired by now. :/
Buy the Cup and Handle Pattern on NVDA.... :)
I bought some NVDA on the way down for that reason. It’s tough trying to catch a falling knife.
I'm up 56% in UNH in 1.8 years. 15% portfolio.
AAPL in at $125
GOOGL I'm in at $109 basis
ASML LRCX NVDA ORLY ODFL COST HD UNP NEE ....
#Ban Bet Lost
/u/annonymousperson1620 made a bet that NVDA would go to 144.41400000000002 within 3 days when it was 160.46 and it did not. They were automatically banned for two weeks.
To get out early they have to: 'and i’ll send someone $250'
Their record is now 4 wins and 8 losses
Nope. Means nothing except .... MSFT AAPL GOOGL and NVDA WILL be higher in share price than they are now.
It won't rule NVDA GOOGL AAPL and MSFT...
See where we are a year from now....
Still held up relatively well compared to Amazon, META, NVDA, AMD, etc. You would’ve made much more shorting just about anything other than TSLA.
You already have a bet going - NVDA to 1000.0 before 2022-11-26 09:41:13.998442-05:00
If my nvda puts print I will suck off xi’s dick for saving them
Intel. Virgin Galactic. SCHD. BA. SBUX. NVDA. DIS. C.
I just want a 2 dollar dump in nvda premarket is that too much to ask
Thanks for sharing. You own quite a few funds. I am polar opposite as I own only 1 fund (FBGRX...bought into it 1 month before COVID hit the market) and at the height, I owned 22 individual stocks. Twelve of those individual stocks were losers (sold for the down payments of my rental properties).
Currently, I only own 4 stocks (AAPL, META, NVDA, TSLA). I bought TSLA as the market was recovering after the COVID dip. I've owned NVDA since 2016, AAPL since 2021, and META since about 2010. I have sold my cost basis for all 4 (now playing with the house's money). I bought an I Bond back in Oct. and just recently placed my remaining cash in a Savings account yielding over 3%. Once the recession hits (if it hits) in 2023, I will look to jump back into the stock market with a new aim of raising some money for the down payment of another property.
BTW, I just recently stumbled onto this 3.36% dividend paying fund SCHD.
NVDA hurt my feelings and my ass.
... nvda lost 75% in a year from peak to trough...
When will we go back to sell off? NVDA puts are hurting.
Read my recent reply where I identified large numbers of put contracts being exercised in my experience. I looked at your situation and unfortunately I cannot go all the way back to the times you got assigned (assuming they're during May) but here is a gem I found:
As you can see, puts were closely being closed out as $NVDA got lower and lower to the $125 share price. Though it continued falling (no one can perfectly time a bottom), the risk/reward wasn't in institution's favor. However, it since then recovered to $165 today. This is a 32% upside from $125.
I would love to know what you are selling CC on to get 3 to 10% monthly without major drawdown on the underlying stocks. META, Goog, Amzn, Aapl, Nvda, Amd etc all have had huge increase last year and a steady drop since No/Dec 2021. There is no way I know of you are getting those returns, you would be doubling you account about every year on average. You are taking way more risk than you think you are.
Taking out a loan to do this is a great way to end up with a loan you have to pay back and no money in your brokerage account.
I don't think this is the case. I had 3 nvda puts in similar situation to what you described and they were assigned around two at 170 and the third at 150 as you know nvda feel to below 110. while it started recovering over the last month this may only be temporary.
The accounts are with Raymond James and I don't see anywhere that states my performance in percentage. They have the "investment results" in dollars, which translates to 19% for FA1 account.
It says it's net of fees however, the "withdrawals" amount doesn't tie to my withdrawals so I think the includes their management fees. Even including management fees as investment results it's still 10 points less than my unmanaged 401k.
To calculate annualized return I used this formula: ((BEG + GAIN) / BEG) ^ (365/1335) - 1
I substituted days for years since it was going from 2/25/2019 until 11/23/2022.
I think they subscribe to some larger investment recommendation thing (ORION? MoneyGuidePro?) so they don't actually pick anything themselves - but I'm honestly not sure. I get trade confirmations via email. Half the holdings are just popular large cap stocks (GOOG, AXP, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, TJX, etc) and then a large portion of the rest are funds with an average expense ratio of .75.
I'm bagholding too, at a WAY higher price than what it's currently trading for.
However, I also have this IRA account where everything is taxed as income when it comes out of the account, so there's really no penalty for short term trading.
In this particular account, I will hop in and out of whatever I decide to, and sometimes I will hop into NVDA. Usually, I'm just hoping for a $5 swing, or something like that. The nice thing about NVDA is that it's quite volatile and can swing violently in either direction. Also, it will have a peak and a valley each day that are pretty spread apart. Buying in at the intraday bottom is a lot easier said than done. Also, you could just buy in at the wrong time, when the whole market is spooked by some unexpected catalyst and then you either need to take a major hit, or fall into another potential bag hold.
I remember last year people chastizing others (like myself) about not going hard into TSLA or NVDA. To see how things have shaken out since then has felt vindicating.
Just because a company is a good company (like AAPL) doesn't mean they are worth buying into at any valuation.
fuck i got undisciplined and tripled down on NVDA puts now i’m fucked, mad at myself
Market shits itself after this coming CPI Fed talk. NVDA up 55% off the lows? Yeah that ain't a bottom, that'd be a bear market rally.
Happy Turkey eve
I’m a simple man. I just want to see AAPL, NVDA, and TSLA all sub-100 where they belong
For some reason buying SPXS and SOXL is a lot less stressful than buying SPY and NVDA.