BR stock · Energy sector · Oil & Gas Integrated
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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

PBRNYSE

11.29

USD
-0.37
(-3.17%)
Market Closed
2.16P/E
3Forward P/E
0.11P/E to S&P500
73.635BMarket CAP
45.32%Div Yield
Google Trends
Recent Reddit Comments

PBR. Great oil producer at a low price, but huge political risk. U know Brazilian pokitics reasonabky well, and Lula is a pragmatic guy. He is far left in rhetoric and gesture, but a pragmatic technocrat when it comes to meaningful policy, so I dont think he will kill the golden goose.

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DIDIY - biggest mobility provider in the world by number of rides / day. PBR - most undervalued oil major in the world.

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$PBR - Petrobras. This bad boy gave 40% in dividends last year alone. Unfortunately I didn't get in in time for that bonanza but it was still cheap at the end of last year when I bought and I've already got 10% back in dividends. The remuneration policy is 60% of free cash flow and the stock trades much cheaper than other oil majors due to political risk, therefore leading to a windfall for investors.

The political risk is that Brazilians, leftists in particular, won't consent to shareholders in the USA and abroad receiving huge dividends while Brazilian people can't afford to pay for gas. A leftist government could in theory cut the dividend, change the remuneration policy, or at worse nationalize the company. So why am I optimistic?

Firstly, because the Brazilian government is PBR's largest shareholder. PBR is their cash cow. Second, Lula (new leftist president) has already stated his intention not to do anything "traumatic" to shareholders. I would not be surprised to see a minor adjustment to the dividend or some form of price capping, but given this language I absolutely do not expect nationalization. Furthermore, I don't think he can get away with it right now. Lula has talked about making a "frente ampla" (broad front) to govern and he doesn't do himself any favors if he takes measures that make people think Brazil is becoming Venezuela.

I speak Portuguese and have Brazilian friends, too, so I feel have an information advantage with this one. I think the market is heavily overestimating the risk on Petrobras. I can understand why pension funds or more conservative investors might avoid it, thus leading to the discount on the share price. But as a retail investor I think this one deserves a small-to-medium position to rake in those dividends.

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You can execute an option until 530 pm Eastern Time. After hours trading is thin enough that it isnt unusual at all for a large call execution to produce a chart like this, as it appears as an order executed at the strike price. I didnt look into this particular chart, but it isnt uncommon, there was a similar one on PBR last week.

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Why is PBR halted? Fucking Lula

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Oil prices generally drop dramatically during a global slowdown, as air travel and casual driving drop dramatically, as does logistics and shipping. That being said, there are still oil companies available at very lownprices, notably PBR and EC.

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​

|MED|16.75%| |:-|:-| |QFIN|13.50%| |NRG|12.25%| |HPQ|11.25%| |WSM|9.00%| |BPOP|8.00%| |GSK|8.00%| |AGRO|7.00%| |PBR|5.75%| |ALL|3.75%| |HIG|3.75%|

Portfolio update. Took gains on META and sold. Added GSK and HIG.

It's about 1/3 ex-us holdings now.

QFIN has been my biggest winner the past quarter at +51%. NRG being my biggest loser at -14%. I believe people overreacted when selling NRG after their recent acquisition, so I upped my position.

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All I know is PBR is in a corrupt and fraudulent country with a stupid high dividend.

All in bitches!

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ha i actually own some PBR and i tried to buy more for cheaper when the price briefly dropped 20% or so...

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PBR? I’ll drink to that! 🍻

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Surely the smart money is put it all on PBR for that lovely 65% dividend 👀👀👀

Or Tesla.....

This is NOT financial advice.... I don't even like the stonks

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PBR too

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Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • SHOP 03/17 43P for $2.90 or less
  • VALE 03/17 18P for $0.95 or less
  • MARA 03/17 9P for $1.95 or less
  • MS 03/17 95P for $2.30 or less
  • SOXL 03/17 14P for $1.25 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • IWM 03/17 187P for $5.10 or less
  • PBR 03/17 11P for $0.45 or less
  • SCHW 03/17 80C for $2.00 or less
  • CRWD 03/17 105P for $6.50 or less
  • BOIL 03/17 10P for $1.95 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

  • If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
  • Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
  • I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
  • The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

  • These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
    • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
  • Are you entering all these plays?
    • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
  • You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
    • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
  • Where are the crayons? I only see words.
    • Click the links above.
  • Have you back-tested this?
    • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
  • What is the historical performance?
    • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.82 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 58% and 79%. (Stats as of 2022-12-31)
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> However, if you are in your 20s/30s and have no kids and earn close to 6 figures and don't have any savings, look in the mirror.

If you are two people living in a major metropolitan area in the United States, then "close to six figures" is barely going to keep you off the street.

The median rental for a two-bedroom apartment in NYC is over $6000 a month.

We were lucky. We had a decent two bedroom for about $3000 a month. That's $36,000 a year, after taxes.

Explain to me how someone earning "close to six figures" can save on that.

I knew plenty of young people where four unrelated people were sharing a two-bedroom - like a university dorm! But I guess it's their brewery habits, eh?

Why, no, I couldn't have moved to Idaho and done the same job. Young people move to big cities for the opportunity.

> We don't spend $50 at breweries every Saturday.

The young people I know are drinking PBR from cans.

Your argument is this: "My wife and I are virtuous, and these kids are losers." But you present no objective facts at all - you simply talk about yourself.

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Check PBR

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Yes and no. Mostly no. The government recently bought 1% of a Baba business on the open market and in turn demanded a board seat for its investment (ditto for ANT one of the companies which BABA has a major stake in). However the same is true for every other chinese major company.

Its important to recognize that the Chinese government always had the ability to tell any Chinese company what to do --as laws in China are not clearly interpreted/transparent in the same way as the Western system. The government recently "took" several billion dollars from major chinese companies (including BABA) as "contribution towards the common welfare" in addition to fines it has imposed for breaking regulations.

None of that is very good. However what taking the 1% stake means is that A) for practical purposes the share count is now permanently reduced by 1%. B) the government in having a seat on the BoD (i.e. soft control) is no longer likely to kill the corporate goose that is a key contributor to the chinese economy.

This is no different from other large companies (Total - France, PBR -Brazil, Airlines? - Canada) where the government has demanded a stake in companies. The question becomes will this control leads to corruption/pillaging of the company's assets. This is a different risk than the regulatory/political risk that most people who talk about Chinese government control are concerned about.

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Not sure about gaming. But generally look into influencer marketing and word of mouth marketing for examples of challenger brands beating out the big guys. The beer industry is full of examples, see PBR in the early 2000’s for ex. A book that influenced me back in those days was “Brand Hijack” by Alex Wipperfurth.

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PBR had a 70% divvy before Lula ruined the party

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21.3% sofi 16.1% meta 12.9% wbd 9.2% paraa 7.9% cpe 7.2% oxy 5.6% krc 4.3% pbr 3.3% bxp Rest is cash, looking for a pullback to buy more PARAA and KRC/INTC

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I am a dividend investor HBI Hanesbrands is undervalued according to Morningstar Dividend investor December 2022 issue. Fair value is $24. Went down to 5.76 in December but back to $8 range today. Pay .60 in dividend. I bought for myself PBR.A (cheaper than regular PBR Petrobras) but same dividend for $8 in December. Dividend is variable but at least $2.50. Do your own diligence.

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26% ASTS 14% VOO 9% VTSAX 7% ASTSW 6% IJT 6% BX 5% VBTLX 2% INDA 2% BRK.B 2% IWN <2% MSFT, BLK, TQQQ, V, CLF each 1% C, RTX, AXP, SCCO, BAM <1% PBR.A Negligible: HOG

Thoughts?

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You talk about Euro's so I'm assuming you are in the EU somewhere. See this wiki page: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/EU_investing, it will include fund information, etc specific to investing from the EU.

> What should or should I not invest in?

See above.

> I will be in for the long term (10 years minimum)

You are 16, presumably you will live until you are 80 or so, so think more of 65-ish years if staying invested, not 10-ish.

> Should I invest in ETFS like S&P 500 or invest in single stocks like coca cola or microsoft?

See above wiki link above for specific products.

> And I was looking into a stock called PBR (Petroleo Brasileiro ADR) and it has a 10.80 euro price and a 1.90 euro dividend every quarter would this be something you would invest in or not?

Not directly, I'd like my index funds own it though.

> And I know this is a Dividend stock reddit but still here to ask Should I invest in Dividend stocks or not?

I'm 100% agnostic to dividends, I happily take them, but I don't go out of my way for them. They are what they are.

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Individual stock are perfect now because everything is on sale. Ive been buying and once i make a profit i sell and throw into voo and schd.

Bought netflix and made 40% sold and put inyo voo. Did same for stla. Pbr. Duk. Sbux.

You can make higher gains on individual stocks in this environment because its volatile. Not sure how long itll last but voo and schd is safe money wont go to zero so if u do end up gambling on individual stocks, take ur gains and place in safe bets.

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>I sell ITM calls regularly. The only time they get called away early is if there is a big dividend to be taken by doing so.

That's what happened to me while trying it with PBR. The day of the dividend all my calls got exercised

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PBR $10 call 1/13

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Unfortunately it will affect $PBR, at least in the short term. "Political Risk" is always mentioned when discussing Petrobas, even though this sort of action is not the risk that is discussed.

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What's the difference between PBR and PBR/A

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Thanks for PBR info very interesting. Also any actionable on SPY is always helpful.

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is $PBR still a good buy , with the news happened in Brazil?

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I've been swing trading PBR, and its a ticker often mentioned here.

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PBR and Cattle

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Pbr and vale

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PBR

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$PBR ~ 60% yield

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Also, not sure by what you mean as to "worthwhile" stock but I regularly trade on Nio, Ford, and PBR which lately have cost between $900 and $1100 for 100 shares. If you can't afford shares, youtube how to do iron condors for conservative income and once you have enough money to buy 100 shares of Ford or Nio you can start writing covered calls on it. It's not going to make you rich overnight, but I assume you are not living on your investments.

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Unreal has had publicity for some well known examples in the VFX industry, like with The Mandalorian, right as PBR materials allowed real time assets to benefit this work flow. But isn't correct to say thatnis tje industry standard, nor that they are years ahead. There a plenty of movies and TV series actively using Unity over Unreal today. Outside of that, Unity just takes the mission of bringing RT3D beyond gaming much more seriously. The potential is close to limitless, but it can be used in everything from construction to marketing, digital twins and simulation work. Epic isn't going this route to a comparable degree.

And yes, like I have pointed out many other places in this very thread, Unreal is far ahead for the absolute high end in gaming - AAA titles. With UE5 is has even become so good that it's beginning to replace proprietary engines from major studies like CDPR and Crystal Dynamics. On the flip side, Unity commands 90% of the mobile market share and almost all indie titles, giving it a 50% overall share of the market.

I would invest in Epic as a company as well, if it was possible, but it isnt. But I would do it for other reasons. Epic has their focus much more on building first party titles like Fortnite and competing a competitor to Steam.

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I got a 12-pack of PBR at a gas station for $7.99 the other day. Yeah, it's PBR, but that's pretty damn cheap!

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What’s everyone’s thoughts on PBR vs PBR.A?

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Well, completely different scenario. When Lula was first elected there was a lot of fear about his policies. His speech back then (over decades) was socialist and borderline communist. When he took office he surprisingly did not rock the boat. Also, he was extremely lucky that China was willing to invest heavily in Brazil and a super commodity circle was about to start. So this commodity super cycle alone made a mega super push for the Brazilian economy and stocks like PBR and Vale went to the moon. In the following years 150 companies would make their IPOs on Bovespa. He then managed to elect Dilma Rousseff. She was more socialist and down right clueless. Commodity cycle started to fade with 2008 financial crisis. But Brazil economy was somewhat fine until 2012/2013. Then, an anti corruption probe started in 2013 found out that every political figure was stealing money in Brazil (including Lula and labor party).

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Sold my PBR a while ago as a lost cause. Glad I did, it's going to get worse.

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Petrobras( PBR)

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Coal stock like BTU,YAL, WHC, ARCH, AMR and LATAM oil stocks like EC, PBR and PTAL.

IF you want to have an energy switch you need a huge amount of energy. Nearly all renewables, battery etc stocks are very overvalued.

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PBR pulled off the privatization list, down 10%, fuck investors, P/E 2.04, P/B 1.01

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PBR

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PBR last time with Lula they drained the accounts of petrobras.

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2022 seems to have been a commodities year, with stocks correlated to iron ore and oil performing very well. This is despite china exposed stocks fairing poorly.

With bonds, credit and housing taking a dive I believe 2023 will be about these things. Although "value" in this needs to be taken with a grain of salt because high central bank rates will suck money out of them. I am looking for signs of delinquencies and illiquidity. Taking some interest in money markets, perhaps there's a play to be had there.

Aside from all that my focus is on LXI REIT, FXPO, PBR.A. There aren't any general funds that have my interest currently.

~Brit investor

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I work for a cannabis company that was bought out recently by a multistate conglomerate. They laid off half our staff. The cannabis industry will end up like the beer industry hopefully. You will have your PBR weed and you will have your Craft weed. Corporate weed has no passion. I wrote SOPs for my company prior to being purchased, the new company views me as an unskilled laborer. Support the little guys as much as possible, buy from the homies if you can. Don't give the corporations your money.

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I loaded up on PBR a month ago. Happy so far we will see about their 70% divvy seems too good to be true

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$PBR value oil play oversold because of some pesky political shit…

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My dad is from Minas Gerias Brazil so I get info from family there. Buying land was fruitful for my dad. I would suggest buyinat 9 or lower. Check out PBR.A I was buy at 8.00 or under. I think you had to have the shares in September as i didn't get paid for oct & nov purchaes.

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$RYCEY $PBR.A $RUM ME BOIZ

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PBR.A

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Hey guys, for the folks who are having pbr (petroleum Brazileiro) have u received recently their dividends? I've seen on some website that they should have sended dividend yesterday, but I haven't received nothing yesterday or today (bought my shares in October and the last ex date was 22november).

Cheers, thanks in advance!

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PBR AND PBR.A

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CALLS ON $PBR.A

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PBR.A!

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PBR.A

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BRAZIL, OIL, PBR/PBR.A !!!!!

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Wtf happened to 25cent wings? I blame the hipsters like when they ruined cheap PBR’s

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My stocks by market cap are pretty similar with the exception of Paypal which is a small position I just added today and $VZ for the dividend.

$100B plus - $VZ

$30B - $80B market cap. $PYPL, $VALE, $PBR

$2B-$30B - $KMI, $GOLD, $LNT, $GGB, $CLF, and $MOS.

$300M - $2B market cap - $FSM, $WNC, $TWI, $IPI, $GT, $LEVI

I have a few other positions but they are all under $2k and I haven't decided if I want to add on or not. I need to just open a position in a small cap fund like $AVDV and $AVUV. That is my plan for 2023. 50% into small cap funds and 50% into individual stocks.

It does help me to break my stocks down by market cap to determine if I think they are cheap or not. Do I consider Paypal cheap when it's market cap is larger than Barrick Gold, Mosaic, and Cleveland Cliffs combined? Not necessarily when those 3 other stocks combined earnings are 5x that of Paypal in 2022.

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Guys Pay attention to Brazil, OIL and PBR / PBR.A

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I bought PBR and it’s down a bit. Has been great the last month

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TALK $PBR / $PBR.A BRAZIL OIL!!!!!

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TALK PBR.A now!!!!

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Good Morning u rehards!

Please LETS TALK $PBR / $PBR.A

LETS TALK BRAZIL AND OIL!!!!

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OXY PBR are the ones !!!

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Up 25% on PBR last 2 weeks. And they pay a 70% divvy.

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yeah it was bad but pbr also had highest mcap ever under lula too

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UNP and PBR are the way to go👏👏👏👏

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have you ever heard of operation car wash? Lula took money from pbr and gave it to lawmakers lol. Actually, I see CDN oil as less risky than brazil but brazil is very priced in (or was)

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Thanks, what gives me the jitters is Lula's policies. I see PBR as a similar risk to CDN oil players. With the supply squeeze under way, it does leave one pondering whether to move that to another asset or asset class, or ride it. Feels like a coin flip at this time.

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The Canadian Oil Mafia (#COM) spaces on twitter have more than a few pbr holders. Check out their usual spaces on Tuesdays and Fridays. Every holder is weighing these risks now.

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Petrobras CEO resigned and new Senator Prates has been named as next CEO. Former President Bolsonaro’s team member supported Prates’s nomination. It rose recently about 10% after the news as well as the whole Brazil’s iBoveapa index has risen about 7% in past week. Look at the ETF $EWZ. There seems to be upbeat sentiment. I am holding $30K plus on &PBR and almost similar on $EWZ.

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lula may be a corrupt criminal, but PBR isn’t going anywhere. Admittedly, you are down but out of all O&G stocks, PBR is definitely good value at current price. Perhaps you can sell some covered calls? You may need to find a more specialized sub than this.

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dump and switch to PBR. div payment should help. if they pay the same in the next year.

have you ever sold a Call??

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He can't nationalize PBR because it was already a government owned company. He can't stop paying dividends because of the Brazilian law the only thing he can do is try to lower the profits, but even this has a limit.

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$PBR is risky but gives a super high dividend. Be careful out here

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$sanw break out 200ma 12/22

and now PBR 0.16 still cheap

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u/opinion_is_unpopular.

PBRA is a preferred stock. These have fixed dividends like a bond. PBR is a common stock which gets the common dividends.

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What about PBR?

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My PBR stonk with a 70% divvy up 30% over the last week

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Are you taking new talkers or ending soon? If so, I have a question for the Chap who mentioned PBR earlier - if he's still here.

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PBR is short for parabola

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https://preview.redd.it/w52jb00k6p7a1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=e40bceb955fa82665ad7336510133b2ea9eb0b4b

Pbr

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Did they announce next dividend for PBR?

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That was me posting about PBR

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Pbr is a state owned oil company. Most profits go to brazil.

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What about PBR political risk?

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TSLA put 85 1/23 PBR put 8.5 1/27 CRSR call 17.5 5/19/23

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$SNEX

$PNGAY

$PBR

7-10 years

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I try to find stocks that have gone through a very big drop. I did this with PBR (Brazilian president interference), GOTU (for said reasons), EHEALTH.

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Just came across this article, your thoughts PBR is down $9.99 last time I checked.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vinci-s-cobra-is-acquires-petrobras-assets-in-brazil-s-polo-carmopolis-for-1-1-bln-271671609430?mod=mw_RHF

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#Ban Bet Won

/u/Appropriate_One5458 made a bet that PBR would go to 10.0 within 4 weeks when it was 9.43 and it did, congrats you fuckin nerd.

Their record is now 1 wins and 0 losses

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive

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Id be careful with that. Pbr is state owned. Lotta profits going to the government.

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PBR - petróleo brasileiros - this company has tanked since the new government took over; the valuation and the dividend at this price point makes it primed for a lottery ticket.

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Stop shitting your pants and buy beaten down stocks that got already killed… all of them show huge volume spikes in the last days.

WBD CRM PYPL PBR CS IAC

I sleep like a child with those stocks.

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PBR - petrolio Brasil this is the best lottery ticket for oil

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Tda thinkorswim. The order fills are a little bit fictional if you do anything with low volume. But on SPY or SPX or something with liquid contracts it's pretty close to the truth. But they'll give you order fills that don't exist sometimes, with something out in the weeds like PBR contracts i was playing with, so better to stick to high volume stuff so it's not far from reality.

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stick w PBR

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No I'm not.

Check company with high dividend like PBR https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PBR/

Price go down because of dividend, not because of market volatility.

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Recent Tweets
$PBR.A $PBRA $PBR Our 2nd Dividend payment incoming soon per #Petrobras filing today (for ADR owners on before 11-21-22) https://t.co/5QbNd0zNsO https://t.co/byauNcUGZM
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$pbr ALL THESE LEVELS POSTED AHEAD OF TIME BEFORE THE MARKET OPENED;- https://t.co/nRPFqGpUzG
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All ready for testnet version 4.0 - The first Decentralized P2P exchange, developed by PolkaBridge 👀 $PBR #PolkaBridge #P2PExchange #Decentralized https://t.co/GNb3oP84q3
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$PBR looks to be getting over Lula jitters. 60k call vol vs 22k puts. The pabst is in the pabst https://t.co/2D7zKstL0F
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How long before $PBR Petrobras plays catch up and goes back to $15? https://t.co/U3Jgxzg0OG
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UPDATE: Difference in the 2 #Petrobras shares. I own a large $PBR.A position as it's about $1.30 cheaper. This allowed me to buy more shares + get same qualified divi (as PBR) + I'm 1st in line to get paid. I like many 1st bought $PBR because I didn't know $PBR.A $PBRA existed. https://t.co/gopAMoK59S
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Something something blood in the streets…something something enter $PBR buy order at a very low limit…
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Guess $PBR will be laddered tomorrow.
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I have no opinion whatsoever on $PBR - all I knew is that FinTwit “value” geeks couldn’t stop talking about it so I stayed the fuck away. Sometimes it’s that simple. https://t.co/IKicxY4oh8
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$RIG today 🚀. No debt issues with those day rate/utilisations filtering through. $PBR huge pre salt fields need $RIG fleet of UD drill rigs. With short interest ~20% of float, will blink one day & this thing could be 5x. #offshore #oil #energy https://t.co/az40wbDOdQ
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You guys know we have more than one stock in Brazil right? $PBR
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$PBR Long...watching this bottom wedge. Excellent entry point at these levels. Don't worry about #lula, just look at what $PBR did back when Lula was president on his first term. https://t.co/aJB6uMvBCP
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This guy has a long term vision of expansion for $PBR. He’s a solid lead…market fear has been irrational and creates a strong buy opportunity here.
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Incoming Petrobras CEO Prates rules out fuel price interventions https://t.co/HmcEOSzZ07 https://t.co/IbuMlTgfBT
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$RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $DO $SDRL MS out with update numbers for the sector. They are incrementally bullish and note the $PBR capex increase. Their dayrate estimates remain muted. https://t.co/RgscgFsBpp
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$VET is the reason why I invest in LATAM oil stocks like $PBR and $EC. The risk is the same, but the price is lower and the quality of assets higher. 75% windfall tax in Ireland reduced the 50% FCF yield of $VET to less than 20%.
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Eat it bears, communist South America is still more free market than where you call home $PBR https://t.co/bhPlzYpMDR
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$PBR - well at least the valuation is attractive 😂 https://t.co/gXR365LiiP
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