US stock · Technology sector · Semiconductors
Company Logo

QUALCOMM Incorporated

QCOMNASDAQ

133.40

USD
-0.56
(-0.42%)
Market Closed
11.69P/E
11Forward P/E
0.59P/E to S&P500
149.033BMarket CAP
2.13%Div Yield
Google Trends
Recent Reddit Comments

Coin 73 c oxy 70 c rivn 22 c Metta lotto and qcom

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

CONTRARIAN ALERT

Don't count INTC out. IMO this will be another GE turnaround story. There will be a lot of demand and Intel has its place. The Semiconductors Sector is the new "oil" -- if you don't own any semiconductor stocks I would start with TSM, ASML, INTC, NVDA, ACLS and QCOM or pick an ETF.

Back to INTC..... CEO Paul Gelsinger has a solid turn around plan that includes 3 pillars -- cutting costs (cut $4.2B in costs), exiting non-core businesses and launching new technologies.

IMO the stock will stay repressed until end of 2024, so you'll see nothing in the short term but they will eventually take back market share with new products and aggressive pricing. I'm invested heavily in TSM but China will invade Taiwan in the next 2-3 years and a company like INTC would benefit from that even if just based on fears in the market.

  • INTC earnings are forecasted to grow 11% per year
  • Short term assets $50.4B exceed short term liabilities $32.2B
  • 5.18% Dividend
  • High insider buying the last 3 months

Buying INTC once it drops a few more bucks. I will buy and hold long.

^(I am not an investment advisor offering professional or financial advice. I am stating my personal opinion, please do your own diligence.)

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Last time i unload my long stock qcom at 157 in aug.

Waiting for bulls to pump again so I could unload more at 140.

Whatever the short trend, 2023 does not look optimistic.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Some Implied Moves for Earnings Next Week (Jan. 30th - Feb. 3rd) - 477 Companies Reporting

$AAPL 4.7%

$AMZN 8.4%

$GOOGL 5.8%

$F 6.7%

$QCOM 6.4%

$SBUX 5.4%

$GILD 4.7%

$X 7.5%

$DECK 9.2%

$BILL 18.3%

$TEAM 15.3%

$HUBG 8.0%

$CBOE 3.4%

$REGN 3.8%

$META 9.9%

$ALGN 11.6%

$SNAP 20.0%

$EA 5.3%

$WDC 8.5%

$AMGN 3.9%

$EW 6.4%

$PTON 18.7%

$HUM 7.7%

$WM 2.9%

$EAT 11.3%

$SMG 13.3%

$MCK 4.1%

$MET 3.2%

$ELF 11.0%

$ALL 5.0%

$DXC 10.7%

$EL 7.0%

$LLY 3.8%

$MRK 3.0%

$COP 4.5%

$PENN 6.7%

$RACE 4.4%

$SWK 8.6%

$NXPI 5.8%

$WHR 5.6%

$UPS 6.5%

$GM 7.0%

$AMD 8.3%

$XOM 3.8%

$PFE 4.4%

$MCD 3.3%

$SPOT 11.4%

$GLW 5.1%

$PII 8.6%

$SOFI 14.8%

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Some Implied Moves for Earnings Next Week (Jan. 30th - Feb. 3rd) - 477 Companies Reporting:

​

$AAPL 4.7%
$AMZN 8.4%
$GOOGL 5.8%
$F 6.7%
$QCOM 6.4%
$SBUX 5.4%
$GILD 4.7%
$X 7.5%
$DECK 9.2%
$BILL 18.3%
$TEAM 15.3%
$HUBG 8.0%
$CBOE 3.4%
$REGN 3.8%
$META 9.9%
$ALGN 11.6%
$SNAP 20.0%
$EA 5.3%
$WDC 8.5%
$AMGN 3.9%
$EW 6.4%
$PTON 18.7%
$HUM 7.7%
$WM 2.9%
$EAT 11.3%
$SMG 13.3%
$MCK 4.1%
$MET 3.2%
$ELF 11.0%
$ALL 5.0%
$DXC 10.7%
$EL 7.0%
$LLY 3.8%
$MRK 3.0%
$COP 4.5%
$PENN 6.7%
$RACE 4.4%
$SWK 8.6%
$NXPI 5.8%
$WHR 5.6%
$UPS 6.5%
$GM 7.0%
$AMD 8.3%
$XOM 3.8%
$PFE 4.4%
$MCD 3.3%
$SPOT 11.4%
$GLW 5.1%
$PII 8.6%
$SOFI 14.8%

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Yeesh next week

SNAP reports on Tuesday and for some Reason is the barometer on tech now and consistently lops off $100B+ of market cap from other companies. Microsoft said ad spending was super weak already

AMD is also Tuesday, quarter won’t be as bad as Intel’s but every single hardware related company has been in the shitter and Microsoft indicated data center was slowing dramatically

Powell Wednesday followed by META

Thursday is finally time for AAPL to fess up and GOOG, which still has a pretty high EPS expectation compared to last earnings, expecting 50% higher. Wait until analysts realize that wasn’t just a temporary 1-off quarter and GCP is probably slowing now too. QCOM thrown into the mix as well

And tech is pumping 12% with VIX muted going into that and everyone buying junk and short squeezing froth

If there’s a week where reality hits, it’s next week

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-01-30

$NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV: 5.53% | 5.71% | 4.34%

2023-01-31

$AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc: 10.97% | 1.45% | 8.18%

$AMGN | Amgen Inc: 4.27% | 3.59% | 3.41%

$CAT | Caterpillar Inc: 4.65% | 11.59% | 4.54%

$MCD | McDonalds Corp: 3.46% | 2.93% | 3.26%

$MCO | Moodys Corp: 5.01% | 7.74% | 5.83%

$XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp: 3.12% | 1.53% | 3.75%

$GM | General Motors Company: 4.5% | 4.46% | 6.96%

$SYK | Stryker Corp: 3.42% | 3.47% | 5.9%

$PFE | Pfizer Inc: 3.59% | 1.85% | 4.36%

$SNAP | Snap Inc: 22.84% | 35.48% | 20.07%

$MDLZ | Mondelez International Inc: 3.53% | 0.47% | 3.24%

$UPS | United Parcel Service: 6.05% | 2.4% | 6.34%

2023-02-01

$GSK | : 2.63% | 0.75% | 4.05%

$TMUS | T Mobile US Inc: 5.16% | 6.34% | 5.02%

$META | : 7.61% | 24.38% | 9.9%

$TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: 3.62% | 1.97% | 4.58%

$MO | Altria Group Inc: 3.23% | 0.43% | 2.79%

$WM | Waste Management: 3.51% | 3.35% | 2.92%

$NVS | : 2.32% | 1.23% | 3.58%

2023-02-02

$AMZN | Amazon com: 7.32% | 8.03% | 8.41% $AAPL | Apple Inc: 4.69% | 9.28% | 4.69%

$BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb Co: 3.41% | 2.73% | 3.04%

$COP | ConocoPhillips: 4.28% | 4.87% | 4.25%

$F | Ford Motor Company: 5.67% | 5.59% | 6.63%

$LLY | Eli Lilly and Co: 4.13% | 2.43% | 4.21%

$EL | Estee Lauder Companies Inc: 5.73% | 5.87% | 7.16%

$MRK | Merck and Co Inc: 3.63% | 2.91% | 3.17%

$GILD | Gilead Sciences Inc: 4.86% | 13.5% | 4.65%

$HON | Honeywell International Inc: 3.01% | 5.17% | 3.56%

$QCOM | QUALCOMM Inc: 6.32% | 9.19% | 6.33%

$GOOGL | Alphabet Inc: 5.11% | 6.21% | 5.85%

$SBUX | Starbucks Corporation: 4.78% | 9.51% | 5.45%

2023-02-03

$CI | Cigna Corporation: 5.02% | 3.17% | 5.0%

$SNY | : 2.54% | 4.04% | 5.09%

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

"Value" stocks: McDdonald's (PE 36), PG (PE 30), Coca Cola (PE 30), Costco (PE 40)

"Expensive" tech stocks: Meta (PE 13), GOOG (PE 18), AAPL (PE 21), QCOM (PE 11), TSM (PE 13)

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I'ma wait till February see how qcom does.i like qcom under 120

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Dude QCOM is up 20% this month!!

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Market pumping 30+ PE like NVDA & AMD but supressing QCOM is beyond comprehension.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I fuggin knew it! QCOM at 110 and AMZN at 82 was a generational buying opportunity! Why did I sell my calls, whyyyyy 😞😞😞

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Yea even AVGO kept pumping through news that AAPL is going to drop them from iPhone in the not so distant future. Aka losing their biggest client but who cares right 🤪

QCOM I think pumped hard when it declared its dividend?

This is going to be NVDA’s first quarter where it’s high end GPU’s were banned in China. Some of the RTX models had to have price cuts and will need more from what AMD announced in December. Retail sales for electronics were reading horrific and Microsoft just confirmed more than 30% down YoY. LOGI peripheral devices was even worse. Dell has also been waving the flag at terrible spending

I get it, AI is cool and exciting. Citigroup put out an article saying NVDA would get an additional $11B in revenue from it in the first year. What a fucking joke

These names get pumped up because regarded analysts keep upgrading and telling you to buy at any cost, fuck that we are still not in the worst part of the downturn yet and everyone is guiding lower than expected

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Yeah it's really weird since like Cristiano was thinking of like QCOM/NVDA and I think others basically buying ARM together, since it would make it more fair for all the chip producers who want to SoC.

Especially Nuvia will help with getting snapdragon in PCs and I think servers as well.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

It has to do with ARM's agreement with Nuvia, before QCOM acquired them.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/chips-tech-firm-arm-sues-qualcomm-nuvia-breach-license-trademark-2022-08-31/

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Most likely waste of time and money. Just like the other lawsuits.

QCOM is priced like a mid tier company compared to even AMD and NVDA.

How can ARM argue anything.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Yeah, also a lot of Apple and Samsung's plans got pushed back.

They both want to have their own chips.

But it is harder than they think to create a good design. The snapdragon is king.

Believe Apple planned around 2023 to replace QCOM, but now it is 2024.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM is great. The market is really underestimating how much they are growing their industrial and auto business. It will probably be short term pain for now, since handsets seem to be going slower and Apple is trying to move away from some of their chips, but they are doing a great job in bringing in more revenue.

I haven't heard anything in a minute, but still looking to see the lawsuit with ARM, since QCOM is actually trying to get into the server business as well.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Well, been following it since like 2016. It was $40-50. Had that court battle in Korea with Samsung and court battle with Apple.

Apple lost and had to pay back. Samsung also lost too.

If you norice that Apple is making their own modem and chip. So QCOM knew about that and has been preparing.

They added new revenue streams. Before they were strictly IP, modems and chips.

Now they have auto, IoT, 5G. Also saw a rumor about GPUs.

That's why their revenue is growing.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Do you know why QCOM rev jumped so hard into the last 2 years? Analysts seem to not expect to much of a drop down from current levels but that massive spike made me nervous looking backward when I was doing dd.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Yup, very stable and solid company.

I am long QCOM and TXN.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Plz pump qcom back to 150 so i can offload all shares img

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I had made two of the best trades a few weeks ago. QCOM and AMZN Jun calls. Would have been up a good 120-140% on those but my paperhands frikking fumbled them the very next day 😞😞😞

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I’msoooo stupid. Was holding QCOM June calls. They are up 120% now. But no, I had to sell them for 10% gain a few weeks ago 😒😒😒

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Semi are extra strong today.. talking to you QCOM honey

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Green:

  • IAA - IAA, Inc.
  • PLRX - Pliant Therapeutics, Inc.
  • AQUA - Evoqua Water Technologies Corp.
  • W - Wayfair Inc.
  • AMZN - Amazon.com, Inc.
  • MSFT - Microsoft Corporation
  • CRM - Salesforce, Inc.
  • SYF - Synchrony Financial
  • F - Ford Motor Company
  • NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation
  • QCOM - QUALCOMM Incorporated
  • SPOT - Spotify Technology S.A.
1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Do you mean Tech?

Semi's got a big upgrade today by Barclay's... well AMD, NVDA and QCOM anyways.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Thanks! QCOM it is

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM, AMD and NVDA were the upgrades.

I'm still looking at INTC though.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Company had to reinvent itself after many years of falling further behind the competition. The only way it can afford to keep lights on is by getting generous government handouts. New strategy is extremely risky because it is betting that it can beat foundries like TSMC at their game. Look at t their customers , they are either waiting for the chance to use AMD chips or design their own like Apple did. If you believe they can beat TSMC + AMD + Nvidia + QCOM + Apple then go ahead and invest, but wait till they drop another 30-50% from here. I don’t think they can.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

CVS, BX, SCHD, JEPI, ASTS, QCOM

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Meta has a PE of 12

Pfizer PE of 8

Qcom PE of 10

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • EFA 03/17 70P for $1.35 or less
  • UAL 03/17 50P for $2.60 or less
  • LYFT 03/17 12.5P for $0.80 or less
  • MRVL 03/17 40P for $2.75 or less
  • USO 03/17 70P for $4.05 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • IWM 03/17 186P for $5.40 or less
  • BAC 03/17 34P for $1.05 or less
  • QCOM 03/17 120P for $4.80 or less
  • ABNB 03/17 100P for $6.95 or less
  • BX 03/17 85P for $4.95 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

  • If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
  • Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
  • I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
  • The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact. New price movement may invalidate the original thesis.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

  • These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
    • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
  • Are you entering all these plays?
    • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
  • You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
    • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
  • Where are the crayons? I only see words.
    • Click the links above.
  • Have you back-tested this?
    • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
  • What is the historical performance?
    • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.82 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 58% and 79%. (Stats as of 2022-12-31)
2
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

>Prefer U.S. chipmakers that significantly cut forecasts - Bernstein >Bernstein remains confident on $NVDA, $QCOM, $AMD and $AVGO, rating them 'Outperform'

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-01-18 ^07:06:16 ^EST-0500

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Especially for Mac, competing with OEMs like Dell who have to pay big money to major suppliers like Intel/AMD, Microsoft, sometimes Nvidia.

The extreme efficiency SoC that they pulled off with the M1 would not have been possible without aligning the strategy of OS supplier (MSFT) chipmaker (AMD/INTC/QCOM) and system integrator (Dell, HP, etc). And certainly not at Apple's margins even if they pulled it off.

In fact MSFT has been dabbling with ARM support in Windows for a freaking decade and it's still not ready for primetime.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

AMD and NVDA catching a bid on TSM earnings is kinda bullshit imo. Just because the foundry gets bidding wars for its advanced limited capacity node (i.e AAPL bitchslapping QCOM, AVGO, MRVL sending them to the back of the line) doesn’t necessarily mean all their clients are suddenly going to be okay

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Sorry, your submission in /r/stocks has been automatically removed due to Rule 3: Low effort.

If you just want to post 1 liners or just want to know everyone's thoughts, then post a comment to our daily discussion thread which are generally stickied or click here.

If you're wondering why a stock moved a certain way, check out Reuters, Motley Fool, and especially Finviz which aggregates the most news for almost every stock.

If instead you're wondering what a term means, go to Investopedia.com and search for said term there.

Either way come back here to repost with your findings, thanks!

A list of the rules can be found here, and if you're new to r/stocks please see the wiki and/or read this post.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Sorry, your submission in /r/stocks has been automatically removed due to Rule 3: Low effort.

If you just want to post 1 liners or just want to know everyone's thoughts, then post a comment to our daily discussion thread which are generally stickied or click here.

If you're wondering why a stock moved a certain way, check out Reuters, Motley Fool, and especially Finviz which aggregates the most news for almost every stock.

If instead you're wondering what a term means, go to Investopedia.com and search for said term there.

Either way come back here to repost with your findings, thanks!

A list of the rules can be found here, and if you're new to r/stocks please see the wiki and/or read this post.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Don't follow Broadcom, but am invested in the space.

I think they already knew about this. Any CEO worth their salt knows.

QCOM has been pivoting into IoT, Auto, even rumors of GPU, etc. They don't want to be beholden to Apple. Especially since Apple has sued them and saying they will phase them out.

Broadcom also seems to be pivoting. They have been buying companies yearly it seems.

Apple M1 is not the only one. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon also have their own chips out or in the works.

So all these Fabless semiconductor companies have to keep their roadmaps on pace. They do have the first mover advantage and experience advantage.

Real winners are the picks and shovels. ASML, Intel, Samsung, TSMC, etc.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I don’t see how the apple news could be priced in to QCOM. They’ll be losing 20% of their revenue automatically. Long dated puts seems appropriate

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Long list but these are my current holdings that have evolved with my portfolio (500k+): AAPL MSFT CSCO TXN QCOM SHW AOS ECL ADM GOLD AFL CME C MCD NKE MRK PG IBM TGT GIS CGM

All of the above stocks pay a decent dividend (CMG doesn’t pay a dividend) with a long history of success and strong balance sheets. Of the above companies only MSFT, TXN, CSCO, C, GOLD currently hold more cash than debt on their balance sheets. I’d say I’m very bullish on these, as well as MCD.

Feedback and thoughts appreciated. I know adding a leader in energy will happen at some point, but will wait for a pullback.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM, AMAT, AVGO, TXN, INTC and MU

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Puts on QCOM

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Any news for the 7% pop on AMD & NVDA. Must be retail :).
QCOM on sideline.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I learned my lesson during the Dotcom bubble. I thought I was a "F"-ing genius with QCOM and few others from 1998-2000 and all the Y2K hoopla. In mid-late Jan, there was like a 10% drop - "I am a f-ing genius, rushed in to buy the dip"; by mid March-April, lost $300K and got out it.

It taught me a valuable lesson, max out retirement accounts with low cost mutual funds and save 15% cash of yearly income for emergencies, after that than purchase blue chips (BRK.B, HON, KMB) names and reinvest dividends.

Then and only then develop a ~10 stock speculative portfolio that you did a lot of DD. For me, more than 10 are difficult to keep current.

It also taught me to have a strategy on both the upside run and to manage downside risk (if any drop by ~15-20% from my original investment dollars, I am out but will watch). After my initial lesson, I only purchased twice on the dip.

On the upside, I take profits at 25% and if its 50%, I sell 1/2 - 1/3 and let the remainder ride and not really tracking it. (Today those stocks include META, BABA, CC, AMD, and LLY.)

So when the crash happen in 2008, I was well positioned and rode it out. Retiring early 8 years ago and been enjoying the good life.

Today, I have a speculative portfolio to keep my mind active. I will ride this crash out and look for opportunities for my speculative portfolio.

Good Luck.

PS: I purchased my house right before the bubble at a fair price. I am worried today that many people are getting over-extended by purchasing an over-priced home that they really cannot afford because they really want home-ownership.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM raging

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCom another great example

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

ASTS...

Iridum and GSAT will need to launch new satellites to offer 5G...once they develop the 5G tech..

- Iridum/QCOM satellites txt'ing later this year, just like GSAT/AAPL. ASTS, has no horse in that race.

- ASTS/NOK 5G, later this year...Iridum and GSAT have no horse in this race...

From Iridum/QCOMM press release - "For now, the service is just for messaging, which uses less bandwidth than voice services that require a constant connection. "

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Wow! I just looked at the QCOM chart, and I see the dot com run up and peak. Sounds like you learned from the experience and that’s all you can do! Best of luck!

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Heavily invested in QCOM and a few smaller positions in some Dotcom (CMGI and FLCG). I grew portfolio from late 1998 and thought I was a "f-ing" genius and did not take profits. In Jan 2000, Y2K mania raging - QCOM tanked - I am a "f-ing" genius, buy more on the dip, has a little pop, then by April - BOOM - I am no longer a genius - wipe out $300K total, back to my day job.

Ironically, if I held QCOM until today, I would have substantially more with dividends re-investments, but I could not take the stress; thus I developed my strategy today that I still adhere to today - not complaining as I am living a good life.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Roughly equal weighting of each of the following:

ARCC, C, CUBE, FIS, FNF, HBI, INTC, LEG, LYB, MPW, PARA, QCOM, STAG, SWK, SYY, VZ

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

16k on options. But am confident to make it back 16k currently in march put play.

40k plus on stock but it is unrealised... am confident by 2nd half 23 QCOM will pull back.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Devil's advocate semis and transports tend to bottom first. While I agree NVDA is still over valued I would almost rather buy QCOM than short NVDA here.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|0|First Seen In WSB|1 year ago Total Comments|1276|Previous Best DD| Account Age|5 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive >TL;DR: I sold my $ZIM shares because the stock is an absolute dogshit and is heading to $0. I’m moving forward by investing in more stable growth stocks like $ATI, $QCOM, and $BOOT.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

>1. It is foolish to invest in a company that is facing negative EPS growth. $ATI is a much better choice, as it is expected to have positive EPS growth in the coming year.

  1. $QCOM and $BOOT are both risky bets, as they are highly dependent on the continued success of their respective businesses (smartphones and cowboy boots). I would avoid these two stocks unless you are confident that their businesses will continue to do well.

3.$CAT and $SLB are both safer choices, as they operate in more stable industries (manufacturing and oil & gas). However, neither stock is expected to see significant growth in the near future, so you may want to consider other options if you're looking for capital appreciation potential.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

These are actually my moves

$ATI Enter 100 shares for 32.31

Awaiting to fill: $QCOM 18 shares 100.6 $BOOT 50 shares $50 $CAT 15 shares 239.95 $SLB 100 shares $50

VUG 70 shares 199.95

1000 left in cash to yolo it on a 0dte tesla put or some stupid shit.

Thoughts?

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Calls on QCOM

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

There are enough dividend stocks to chose - REITs, telecom (T), tobacco (MO) . Tech (INTC, QCOM) dropped so low that its dividend is about 5% .
If anything, put 30k into them and don't touch. This would keep you off PDT limit and all those dividends can be gambled away .

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

>Oil consumption in USA is about the same as 2009 as 2021, maybe less. It's been almost flat the last 7 years.

The US is not the world.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/daily-global-crude-oil-demand-since-2006/

​

>If oil prices could be guaranteed above $70 shale companies in Canada and USA would be booming. They are rebounding but it's still risky as solar energy costs have dropped to almost free now. Not sure what you mean by $3T , that's like all infrastructure and not just oil or electricity , that's a huge number.

Most shale companies would barely be able to keep the capex going at 70$. They need higher prices for longer to really boom.

If you compare worldwide oil capex per day before covid to after, companies did not put in capex of around 3b per day in 2020. After 2020 they still miss 1b per day compared to before. It has stabilised a few months ago only because Aramco puts in huge amounts of capex to find offshore wells now.

Again 3T worldwide that is missing from 2020-Now.

​

>Apple has a locked in ecosystem and excellent hardware. Just like game console companies. They could be huge as the next living room gaming and home streaming company. Also health care devices is a billion dollar field they could be great in. They have a ton of potential.

Just because you have potential, does not mean that the current share price is worth that. The companies growth has stagnated the last two quarters - especially if you count in inflation. Every company has ton of potential.

​

>Google has huge potential with AI, not sure why you bringing up share compensation, that's typical in silicon valley. Half my salary this year was RSUs.

SBC = a real cost to the business and it dilutes you as shareholder. You should care about it.

​

>Nvidia had great data center income last quarter, even with gaming tanking. If AI or automation/self driving/robotics/meta verse or game streaming takes off than they could jump. Look at multi year trends not just one year and quarter.

Data center income is flat Quarter over quarter and the gaming/crypto bust has made it so they had 77% less operating income than before. Additionally they have huge SBC, so they dilute you. At the same time they trade at 3x the historical valuation when they had 15% growth. A company can have bright prospects and the shares can still be overvalued.

​

>Look at AMD growth or QCOM getting into laptops. These companies know how to build devices and they can scale up fast because they don't have to build factories themselves. They also don't keep all the laborers, that's outsourced to foxconn unlike say Ford or Tesla or an oil refinery which also has environmental red tape.

There literally hasn't been a new oil refinery in the US for more than 30 years. capacity increased by building out the increasing ones. We have seen that crack spreads have moved up significantly this year - due to the missing refining capacity. Again, just because the business model is good - the shares can still be overvalued. Revenues for AMD declined and operating income even turned negative.

​

>Obviously I don't know if these companies will do these things but they have the potential for huge growth because of internet and silicon manufacturing. There's many other tech companies, especially the software ones that have huge margins because they don't have tangible costs to go from 100k to 100M customers.
It's higher risk but also higher reward.

These companies have high valuations. Furthermore the semiconductor business is quite cyclical. These circles are much harder to predict tho than oil cycles. Of course tech is here to stay, but that does not mean that the valuations will go higher. Microsoft continued to increase revenues every year like clockwork and it took from 2000 to 2015 to get to All time highs.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

There's a lot of stuff wrong in your post. First with oil.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-the-us-per-day/

Oil consumption in USA is about the same as 2009 as 2021, maybe less. It's been almost flat the last 7 years.

If oil prices could be guaranteed above $70 shale companies in Canada and USA would be booming. They are rebounding but it's still risky as solar energy costs have dropped to almost free now. Not sure what you mean by $3T , that's like all infrastructure and not just oil or electricity , that's a huge number.

https://oilandenergyonline.com/articles/all/shale-oil-makes-rebound/

Anyways, you want an industry that can grow by 30% not just s&p 9%. Something revolutionary with huge potential.

Apple has a locked in ecosystem and excellent hardware. Just like game console companies. They could be huge as the next living room gaming and home streaming company. Also health care devices is a billion dollar field they could be great in. They have a ton of potential.

Google has huge potential with AI, not sure why you bringing up share compensation, that's typical in silicon valley. Half my salary this year was RSUs.

Nvidia had great data center income last quarter, even with gaming tanking. If AI or automation/self driving/robotics/meta verse or game streaming takes off than they could jump. Look at multi year trends not just one year and quarter.

Look at AMD growth or QCOM getting into laptops. These companies know how to build devices and they can scale up fast because they don't have to build factories themselves. They also don't keep all the laborers, that's outsourced to foxconn unlike say Ford or Tesla or an oil refinery which also has environmental red tape.

Obviously I don't know if these companies will do these things but they have the potential for huge growth because of internet and silicon manufacturing. There's many other tech companies, especially the software ones that have huge margins because they don't have tangible costs to go from 100k to 100M customers.

It's higher risk but also higher reward.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I'm a new, small money investor and I've mainly been accumulating small amounts of TSLA and GOOGL. I honestly can't think of anything else to add to my portfolio. AMZN and QCOM have been on my main watchlist. But I feel like I'm thinking too "inside the box" with everything... Stuck in the whole popular large cap genre I guess. Any suggestions?

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I’m so glad I sold my AMZN and QCOM calls yesterday 🫠🫠🫠

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

You will. And once new phones sales drop due to people not having jobs you'll get QCOM at 90 and at 80 too!

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

If I can get QCOM at $105, I am going to buy a lot of shares.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

While you're right... Also the CHIPS act has not been taken into consideration in future revenue of companies like MU, QCOM, TSMC, that are expanding in the US.

But yes you are definitely also right. These companies are probably going to be long term holds and not return for a while until overall market returns to stronger buying power in the future.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

$LNG - think nat gas is going to be a transition fuel from oil and the US could be well positioned to export this key resource to the world

$META - with the caveat that I hope Zuck comes to his senses and cuts down on some of the metaverse crap. The core business is still solid and could see a tailwind from a potential Tik-Tok ban.

$QCOM - I think they have a solid plan in place to diversify their business away from just iPhone modems. To me, the fact that Apple still hasn't been able to in-house manufacture the modems still tells me they're doing something right. If someone more knowledgeable about chips disagrees with this, do let me know. If not $QCOM, I like $AVGO as well in the chips space

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Exited my Jun AMZN and QCOM calls for a measly profit, seeing a bunch of bearish DD and posts here which made me, 🫤🫤🫤

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Why not consider QCOM or something that captures a broader market? Less volatile but already at a P/E 10.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM, AMD, NVIDIA, AVGO, ASML, TSMC

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Thinking of buying TSMC and QCOM leaps. What do y’all think? 🤔🤔🤔

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Txn and Tesla aren’t serious AI companies. QCOM has better investments and traction in AI than either of these two. But NVDA is the king of AI

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Like others mentioned, tech stocks tend to largely move together so I’m going to assume you want a basket of tech stocks to just be one portion of your portfolio. I’m also bored so I’ll play along.

Cloud Providers: $MSFT, $GOOG, $AMZN

Semiconductors: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $AVGO, $TXN, $QCOM, $QRVO, $ASML, $TSMC

Enterprise Software Stack: $WDAY, $SNOW, $NOW, $CRM, $GTLB

There’s a billion other categories but those are some major hitters.

If I had to pick one from each category, I’d go $MSFT, $TSMC, and $SNOW but just my own personal opinion.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Happy that i could offload 42 shares on qcom during that pump.

Patience is the key.

Entering when nvda is back to 90 img

2
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

NCG CompEs working in the big chip design companies (intl, amd, qcom, nvdia, aapl) take home about 140k in base pay

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

We knew that for a while. Plus there’s other value plays in the semi industry - ADI, MCHP, TXN - shit even QCOM, AVGO, AMAT, KLAC have better prospects. What about ASML at yearly lows?

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM is currently bringing my portfolio down, I’m down 35% since I bought it

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Agreed. I don’t think they are going anywhere, but the growth feels limited. I’d be concerned about data center growth.

Even AWS wants to make their own chips. QCOM is trying to get into that space as well.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Hindsight is 2020:

If you had a long time horizon buying QCOM in 1990 to 1999 would have paid off 17,235% in 2021 and then you could diversify (sell some to live on and move a chunk into TSLA if you needed a longer time horizon)

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

#Ban Bet Lost

/u/NotPapaElon made a bet that QCOM would go to 105.0 within 2 weeks when it was 123.41 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

Their record is now 2 wins and 6 losses

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Hmm... So, that why old Warren was buying up TSM back in November...

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway discloses $4.1 billion TSMC stake

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRKa) disclosed that it bought more than $4.1 billion of stock in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), a rare significant foray into the technology sector by billionaire Warren Buffett's conglomerate. In a Monday regulatory filing describing its U.S.-listed equity investments as of Sept. 30, Berkshire said it owned about 60.1 million American depositary shares of TSMC.

The news sent shares in TSMC soaring, closing up 7.9% on Tuesday, as it boosted investor sentiment for the world's largest contract chipmaker, which saw its shares hit a two-year low last month due to a sharp slowdown in global chip demand.

While Berkshire does not normally make big technology bets, it often prefers companies it perceives to have competitive advantages, often through their size.

TSMC, which makes chips for the likes of Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL), Qulacomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) and Nvidia Corp (Nasdaq: NVDA), posted an 80% jump in quarterly profit last month, but struck a more cautious note than usual on upcoming demand.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM is the best semi bet there is... just bought shares, and picking up calls for June

sorry for making a move that so far off from the normal sentiment here

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I went long VXX and SOXS shares yesterday.

I’m holding puts on QQQ, TSLA, QCOM.

I fucking love my life

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

QCOM lfg!

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I lost two and a half grand on Tesla puts cos I talked to my girlfriend too long turned around and panic sold. Bought qcom puts for tomorrow how fucked am I

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

" their earnings are still negative"

​

What are you talking about? While a lot of tech companies like META, INTC, QCOM, CSCO, MSFT, etc. have dropped, NONE HAVE THEM ARE LOSING MONEY.

There's some joke companies that are losing money like Uber but no one expected them to be able to breakeven...

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Lots of names in the sector that will profit.

TSM if you are okay with the geo political risk.

ASML will profit even if their is geo political risk.

Intel if you believe the geo political risk.

I don't see a world where most of the names don't make money. More and more people will have smart phones, PCs, laptops, tablets, cloud servers, servers for businesses.

More and more semis will be needed at all levels and node sizes.

Sure there are some high PE names like NVDA. But also tons of under 20 forward PE names as well, like QCOM.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

>I recommend avoiding these types of scalping plays on SPX altogether, but before telling you what I'd do, I'd like to add one more thing about scalping. Many people try 0 DTE scalps on SPX using a Long Call or Long Put play. This is extremely dangerous and generally a recipe for losing money. It's also very stressful throughout the entire trading day. That's a signal that everyone should listen to. It's telling you that you're doing something risky that you shouldn't be, because you're gambling, and that's generally not going to end well.

by reading your comments on this paragraph, I have been felt exactly the same way although I day traded SPY with Long Calls/Puts with 2 or 3 DTEs. Not only it is so stressful throughout trading hours, but also cost me losing a lot when the big market makers make sudden changes (down or up) so there is no chance to recover so the trade changes from winnings to losings. It is gambling.

so, should I keep trading SPY with short debit/credit spread? or should I pick a few individual stocks to trade? The reason I pick SPY was because its liquidity so orders are filled quickly.

I love your example with QCOM with 1, 2,, or 3 days DTEs, and the ladder set up makes sense. The reason I didn't use spread was that the gains are limited and the loss would be usually bigger, and takes a longer time to set it up sand get filled. Is there rules I need to follow for setting the spread up?

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Cmon QCOM get back to 130s

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I omitted an important word by accident: spread. I just saw that and edited my earlier comment to add it.

When SPX rallies strongly, I might execute a Short Call Spread play. When it crashes, I might execute a Short Put Spread play. Both usually involve a striking price width that's as small as possible. I do these trades because my assumption is that SPX will mean-revert to some extent. So, if it has gone way up, I believe that its momentum will reverse and it will drop. If it goes way down, I assume that it will reverse and climb a bit.

If you want to do something like this, it's important to keep descriptive statistics. You can construct a Google Sheets spreadsheet and use the =GOOGLEFINANCE() function to import the needed data. Import the daily open, close, low, and high. Make sure to calculate the difference between the open on one day and the close on the previous day. Also calculate the daily ranges: DH - DL and DC - DO. Build a probability distribution based on ranges. Study it carefully. Trying to scalp SPX is a statistical game, so it's important to understand the fundamentals of descriptive and time-series statistics. If you don't, market makers will destroy you. Use the statistics to select striking prices.

You also need to be very, very careful of the stingy algorithms of the market makers. These create a wide bid/ask spread. The idea is that when SPX rallies strongly, execute a Short Call Spread play using a lower striking price that's x% above the spot price 15 minutes after the open. Or when SPX crashes, execute a Short Put Spread with an upper striking price that's y% below the spot price. Figuring out what x or y should be is a statistical exercise.

I have to warn you that these are not a good way of making money, because again, we're in a bear market, and volatility is both high (especially when there are macroeconomic catalysts) and unpredictable. While it's true that VIX has crashed recently, it remains to be seen whether that'll continue. When you win an SPX scalp like this, you make a tiny bit of money. But when you lose, you lose a great deal of money, relatively speaking, even if you have rigid rules around when to exit. Just because you try to exit doesn't mean that you'll get filled, especially the further away from ATM striking prices you are.

I recommend avoiding these types of scalping plays on SPX altogether, but before telling you what I'd do, I'd like to add one more thing about scalping. Many people try 0 DTE scalps on SPX using a Long Call or Long Put play. This is extremely dangerous and generally a recipe for losing money. It's also very stressful throughout the entire trading day. That's a signal that everyone should listen to. It's telling you that you're doing something risky that you shouldn't be, because you're gambling, and that's generally not going to end well.

Always seek to maximize the reward and minimize the risk. For example, this was much safer than a scalp on SPX:

Play: № 144 Date: Thu 17 Nov 2022 at 10:51:14 am ET

Goal: Capital: ≅ $80.00 Target: +$20.00 (+25.00%) Deadline: Fri 18 Nov (4 days) Risk: $60.00

Wall Street Price Targets: Low = $105.00/share Mean = $150.35/share Median = $150.00/share High = $250.00/share

Price at Entry: QCOM = $121.88/share

Action: Enter 1 ∙ Short Put Spread QCOM 18 Nov 118.00/[email protected] as follows:

1 ∙ BTO QCOM 18 Nov 118.00 [email protected] 1 ∙ STO QCOM 18 Nov 119.00 [email protected]

DTE = 1 Break-even = $118.80/share Max gain = $20.00/play ∙ 1 play = $20.00 (if QCOM > $119.00/share) Max loss = $80.00/play ∙ 1 play ⇒ $80.00 (if QCOM < $118.00/share)

Greeks: p(QCOM > $119.00/share) = 74.48% δ = -0.0697 γ = Not captured ν = Not captured θ = -0.0509

Justification: • Leading semiconductor companies are showing strength. • QCOM is a foundational supplier to many other companies and interfaces with the economy across broad industries. • Based on technical strength, I believe that a one-day play is merited.

Disclosure:

• Entered 1 ∙ Short Put Spread QCOM 18 Nov 118.00/[email protected] on Thu 17 Nov 2022 at 10:43:26 am ET

Notice that the reward is very high, and the risk very low, compared to a 0 DTE scalp of SPX. You're only risking $80 to make $20, and it just takes one day. The above is not enough, however. We want the risk to go down even further. How can we achieve that? Repeat the play, but use lower striking prices, like this:

Play: № 145 Date: Thu 17 Nov 2022 at 11:44:20 am ET

Goal: Capital: ≅ $180.00 Target: +$20.00 (+11.11%) Deadline: Fri 18 Nov (1 days) Risk: $60.00

Wall Street Price Targets: Low = $105.00/share Mean = $150.35/share Median = $150.00/share High = $250.00/share

Price at Entry: QCOM = $121.18/share

Action: Enter 2 ∙ Short Put Spread QCOM 18 Nov 116.00/[email protected] as follows:

2 ∙ BTO QCOM 18 Nov 116.00 [email protected] 2 ∙ STO QCOM 18 Nov 117.00 [email protected]

DTE = 1 Break-even = $116.90/share Max gain = $10.00/play ∙ 2 plays = $20.00 (if QCOM > $117.00/share) Max loss = $90.00/play ∙ 2 plays ⇒ $180.00 (if QCOM < $116.00/share)

Greeks: p(QCOM > $117.00/share) = 85.10% δ = -0.0844 γ = Not captured ν = Not captured θ = -0.0957

Justification: • This is the more conservative version of Play № 144.

Disclosure:

• Entered 2 ∙ Short Put Spread QCOM 18 Nov 116.00/[email protected] on Thu 17 Nov 2022 at 13:39:50 am ET

Notice how we're shifting the odds in our favor, and minimizing overall risk. If we were to lose Play № 144, and we took a maximum loss, we'd lose $80. But statistically, it's very unlikely that QCOM would crash to the upper striking price from Play № 145, so we're using the latter as a type of hedge against the former, to minimize overall risk. So, instead of losing $80, if we lost Play № 144, we'd probably win Play № 145. This means that we'd lose $80 from the former, but gain $20 from the latter, and thus only effectively risk $60. This ladder-like structure of plays on the same underlying is an important way of reducing risk. It's so important to think statistically and strategically when designing options trades.

By the way, I won both Play № 144 and 145, so the return was similar to winning a scalp of SPX using a single contract, but risking less than one-fourth the capital. This means that the reward-to-risk ratio of the above plays is far superior to that of an SPX scalp.

If you want to make money by trading options, it's important to not follow the herd to the slaughter (and believe me: it's not the market maker that's going to get slaughtered), but do things that other people aren't doing. Much of winning options trades comes down to excellent preparation, finding the right underlying for a particular trade structure, monitoring internal market dynamics and macroeconomic and stock-specific catalysts (including news) to make sure that it's safe to trade, executing to perfection, using a small position size, concentrating on profitable companies in an uptrend, and, most of all, managing risk exactly according to your plan.

Here's one final thing about scalping, whether SPX or anything else. It doesn't really matter whether you use a Long Call, Long Put, Short Call, Short Put, Long Call Spread, Long Put Spread, Short Call Spread, or Short Put Spread. What you're really trying to do is predict direction, but if you fail, then build in a large enough margin of safety so that despite being wrong, you can still win the trade. The only way to do that is to become well versed in statistics and go to the trouble of keeping them on a daily basis and performing the needed analysis.

I have a high win rate and could make a killing if I scaled into my trades, but I never do, with rare exceptions when I get a superb setup, because I'm acutely aware of the unique risks of a bear market. It's always better to be safe than sorry. There is a time for going after large trades, but now isn't that time.

Study. And don't believe anything that anyone says unless they show you detailed trades and provide detailed explanations. I've found that those who are the greediest and refuse to share knowledge tend to be the least successful. Options trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme. Boring, predictable trades are the way to win the long game.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Hi Hardy. Is the Qcom play still valid?

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

if spy pulls 450, This regard market could pull 180 on qcom. Else make no sense spy hovering at 400.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Until this regard market pulls qcom back to 180. Will scalp with spy puts. Once 180 is reach all cash gang. Avg entry price 80

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

  • BABA 12/16 75P for $3.35 or less
  • MRK 12/16 105P for $2.15 or less
  • MET 12/16 75P for $1.25 or less
  • UNG 12/16 21P for $1.95 or less
  • RIO 12/16 62.5P for $1.60 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

  • EFA 12/16 64P for $1.20 or less
  • QCOM 12/16 120P for $4.60 or less
  • NEM 12/16 45P for $1.85 or less
  • ADBE 12/16 322.5C for $14.70 or less
  • FDX 12/16 170P for $4.30 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

  • If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
  • Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
  • I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
  • The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

  • These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
    • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
  • Are you entering all these plays?
    • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
  • You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
    • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
  • Where are the crayons? I only see words.
    • Click the links above.
  • Have you back-tested this?
    • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
  • What is the historical performance?
    • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)
1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I work and invest in the space. It is way over its skis here. I agree. I’m betting new lows Q1-Q2. But amazing opportunity to go long. I like QCOM 75-100.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Ban Bet Created: /u/NotPapaElon bet QCOM goes from 123.41 to 105.0 before 2022-12-04 23:07:05.959480-05:00

Their record is 2 wins and 5 losses.


^LEADERBOARD - ^FAQ - ^STATS

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

!banbet QCOM 105 2w

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

Covered calls selling has been amazing this year!. I do this with lots of individual stocks as well. AAPL, BX, MS, MRK, AABV, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. KO CRM, TSLA, ETSY, GOOG, with over 90% success rate this year. That will probably work until it doesn't, hence I sell 7-14 DTE.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

My risk tolerance might be a little higher, but I do this full time. So I really have to be in tune with everything, the market sentiment, economic events, the Fed, inflation numbers, earnings, ect. I have a spreadsheet I use that I made for myself. With the trade date, expiration date, premium collected, underlying price at the time of the trade, and total collected to date with each individual ticker I trade. I do this with lots of individual stocks as well. AAPL, BX, MS, MRK, AABV, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. KO CRM, TSLA, ETSY, GOOG.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

I like QCOM as well. CEO is a boss

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow

During dot com craze, I lost $300K on QCOM and a few others in a month. Taught me a valuable lesson, fully fund retirement accounts first with low cost mutual funds, then develop a blue chip portfolio and then, and only then pick 2-5 stocks in a speculative that is less than 10% of your nest egg. Slow and steady - wins the race. Retired early at 56 - 7 years ago and life is good.

1
Reply
Share
Report
Save
Follow
Recent Tweets
Tech disruptions in 2023 are gravitating towards on #AI and #Metaverse technologies. $EPAZ DeskFlex Metaverse Office will soon change the way we work. $META, $MSFT, $QCOM, $GOOG, $NVDA, $AMC, $ADSK Here's why the Metaverse will make it big this year: https://t.co/NqPkPi09jn
0
0
3
A bunch of #trades from December were just reported by @SenTuberville. Senator was trading in multiple #stocks & options including $PYPL, $QCOM & $DIS. He invested between $250k to $500k in $PYPL on Dec 05. https://t.co/BPyAkRxNxp https://t.co/gCFKIybwYX
0
0
0
Beautiful Week 🔥 The end of the week could have been better with $TGT and $TSM. 87.5% Win Rate✅ 146.86% Total Gain✅ We will only get better and grow from here. 📈 AMAZING START TO 2023❤️ $SPY $BABA $MSFT $DASH $QCOM $TTD https://t.co/hAAUDGyVG3
2
1
13
3 Semiconductor Stocks For Your January 2023 Watchlist $QCOM Do you have these semiconductor stocks on your January 2023 watchlist? Get the full story here 👇 https://t.co/ghsU7YSoV4
0
0
0
Interesting $AAPL new lately before earnings all this in last 3 days: Tim Cook takes a 40% paycut Dropping Samsung screens and $QCOM chips $AVGO New Mac’s with Touchscreen Surprise Earnings? 02/02/23 $122.95B Rev Exp.
10
2
22
TSMC "isn't playing the game" in the US and is ignoring risks from its China background, says @PatrickMoorhead, giving them a disadvantage against Western chipmakers. $TSM $INTC $QCOM https://t.co/Dh6jcLF9eK
1
12
16
Recently $AAPL has been releasing a lot of news. Tonight Tim Cook "voluntary" 40% compensation cut, Macs with touchscreens, dropping @AVGO and $QCOM chips. Are they setting up for a terrible earnings report or surprise preannouncement?
74
58
737
There are definately some short term bullish indications out there right now. Here is one that I key off of, the semiconductors $SMH. $NVDA $QCOM $AVGO #stocks https://t.co/lR0eFvWIDn
3
4
34
And the #AR glasses keep coming... $QCOM $VRAR
1
3
11
QUALCOMM joint venture THUNDERCOMM announces reference designs for AR glasses / smart glasses with wearable chip and mixed reality headsets with 2 RGB passthrough cameras CC @ARMRXR https://t.co/7HmLQaOOUr
2
7
36
Potential bat pattern developing on $QCOM. Projected price Target 147. https://t.co/W63FCBkuyY
0
1
8
Apple aims to ready its cellular modem chip by end of 2024 or early 2025. $AAPL plans to drop Broadcom chip to use in-house design. Also swapping Qualcomm for homegrown modem. Combined Wi-Fi Bluetooth chip would replace Broadcom part @business $QCOM $AVGO https://t.co/fJ77T3AKO7
0
1
4
BREAKING: $AAPL is reportedly planning to drop $AVGO chips by 2025 and $QCOM modem chips by 2024, and will replace them with in-house designs. @stevekovach reports: https://t.co/VBo3IJTk40
5
10
48
Apple, $AAPL, aims to replace Qualcomm, $QCOM modem but 2024, and Broadcom, $AVGO, by 2025 for in-house design.
13
17
125
Skyworks says the channel inventory situation (on the phone side) didn't improve in the Dec quarter. The company didn't ship anything in both quarters it seems (supported by inventory). The only bright spot on the Android side is increased traction with Google. $SWKS $QRVO $QCOM https://t.co/qWfm40rj80
4
11
49
Investors Saw An Opportunity To Buy Qualcomm $QCOM Stock When Apple Announced It Was Discontinuing The iPhone SE 📱📊 https://t.co/2hdqrjNLcu #investing #Qualcomm #stockmarket #technology #business
0
193
200
Qualcomm will likely remain the exclusive supplier of baseband chips to Apple for iPhone 16 (thru 2024), Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says, versus market consensus that Qualcomm will start losing #iPhone orders in 2024. Link to note in his tweet. $QCOM $AAPL
1
6
17
The full @Qualcomm @Snapdragon Satellite two-way messaging demo done by Francesco Grilli in the middle of nowhere outside Las Vegas for #CES2023 this week. #CES $QCOM https://t.co/AAC5tHsHxR
0
10
27
[Update] Qualcomm is the biggest winner of Apple’s cancelation of 2024 iPhone SE 4 / Qualcomm為Apple取消2024 iPhone SE 4的最大贏家 https://t.co/5gSCGT7dAK
6
38
208
Sony unveiled a prototype of the "Afeela" electric vehicles it will build with Honda, using digital chassis from Qualcomm, Reuters reports. The Sony-Honda venture aims to deliver its 1st EVs by early 2026. $SONY $QCOM #ElectricVehicles https://t.co/t5Q6HHAbrJ
1
5
22
Seems latest predictions & indications point to a 2025 target date for 💯 vertical integration (processor & modem solutions) at both Apple and Samsung ➡️ Phone chip market split by 2 integrated premium brands, and 2 merchant chip vendors Qualcomm & Mediatek supplying Chinese OEMs
0
0
0