AMD SHOP QCOM calls let’s get it

​

Excluding TSMC (which is not technically a "chip maker" - but sub-contractor to make chips for others). Nvidia market is still close to the combined market cap of next 4 chip makers - AVGO, TXN, AMD , QCOM.

QCOM hopefully all time low soon

Some implied move for earnings next week - 1160 companies reporting:

​

$AAPL 3.9%
$SHOP 10.0%
$SQ 9.3%
$COIN 12.9%
$DKNG 9.8%
$LYFT 15.7%
$CVNA 18.0%
$DASH 11.4%
$BKNG 4.8%
$EXPE 8.9%
TEAM 12.4%
$WISH 17.3%
$BILL 16.9%
$RDFN 13.2%
$OPEN 21.0%
$BMBL 14.6%
$RKT 8.3%
$QCOM 6.2%
$ESTY 10.2%
$MELI 7.7%
$DDOG 10.0%
$RCL 7.5%
$MRNA 6.5%
$PTON 17.1%
$PLNT 7.7%
$W 17.4%
$PARA 8.6%
$K 3.8%
$REGN 4.0%
$SHAK 9.0%
$CARS 9.7%
$ZTS 5.6%
$SEDG 10.5%
$RUN 12.6%
$AMD 7.3%
$F 5.8%
$SBUX 5.2%
$WING 10.7%
$CVS 4.7%
$KHC 3.4%
$EL 6.6%
$SPWR 12.7%
$GRMN 5.6%
$CHEF 10.5%
$EAT 10.0%
$SMG 12.6%
$SITE 7.0%
$TRIP 9.5%
$MOS 5.7%
$LMND 12.0%
$FSLY 13.6%
$HUBS 7.9%
$ZG 11.4%
$UPWK 15.2%
$EQIX 5.4%
$OLED 9.0%
$VMEO 31.0%
$MTCH 9.9%
$SPG 5.6%
$PAYC 8.9%
$CLX 4.9%
$PRTS 16.5%
$HLF 10.8%
$EXPI 14.1%
$SPT 15.9%
$UBER 9.4%
$BP 3.3%
$LNG 3.7%
$MAR 4.2%
$SYY 3.8%
$TAP 5.3%
$TREE 16.6%
$ZBRA 8.8%
$INCY 5.9%
$SAGE 10.6%
$SOFI 14.5%
$CHKP 6.1%
$NCLH 8.2%
$GPN 7.5%
$TGTX 20.0%
$LOGI 7.0%
$NXPI 5.7%
$ANET 7.7%
$CAR 10.3%
$MGM 6.0%
$VRTX 4.9%
$ZI 12.9%
$CF 5.2%

​

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/some-implied-moves-for-next-weekmay-1st-may-4th-1160-companies-reporting/

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-05-01

$ON | ON Semiconductor: 7.78% | 1.74% | 8.26%

$SYK | Stryker Corp: 3.59% | 10.43% | 5.34%

$GPN | Global Payments Inc: 6.14% | 6.45% | 7.38%

$MGM | MGM Resorts International: 6.23% | 10.99% | 6.38%

$NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV: 5.57% | 10.28% | 6.26%

2023-05-02

$PFE | Pfizer Inc: 3.37% | 2.03% | 3.98%

$MAR | Marriott International Inc: 3.91% | 3.73% | 4.87%

$BP | : 4.24% | 10.65% | 3.67%

$PGR | Progressive Corporation: 3.42% | 9.27% | 4.4%

$ECL | Ecolab Inc: 3.81% | 10.12% | 5.85%

$SBUX | Starbucks Corporation: 4.72% | 2.51% | 5.09%

$ETN | Eaton Corp New: 4.63% | 3.39% | 7.15%

$AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc: 11.04% | 13.67% | 7.72%

$F | Ford Motor Company: 5.7% | 6.78% | 6.56%

$UBER | Uber Technologies Inc: 8.09% | 3.33% | 9.97%

2023-05-03

$CVS | CVS Health Corporation: 4.64% | 4.18% | 4.9%

$EL | Estee Lauder Companies Inc: 5.7% | 4.59% | 7.29%

$EMR | Emerson Electric Co: 3.44% | 7.21% | 2.52%

$PSA | Public Storage: 3.14% | 3.23% | 4.79%

$QCOM | QUALCOMM Inc: 6.25% | 3.67% | 6.55%

2023-05-04

$MRNA | Moderna Inc: 11.63% | 8.46% | 7.67%

$BDX | Becton Dickinson and Company: 3.93% | 5.3% | 4.34%

$COP | ConocoPhillips: 4.29% | 4.72% | 4.34%

$SQ | Square Inc: 10.19% | 2.5% | 9.71%

$BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc: 5.89% | 4.48% | 5.36%

$AAPL | Apple Inc: 4.77% | 6.98% | 4.13%

$TEAM | Atlassian Corporation PLC: 11.47% | 7.29% | 10.18%

2023-05-05

$D | Dominion Energy Inc: 2.68% | 4.13% | 4.97%

$CI | Cigna Corporation: 4.58% | 2.7% | 6.51%

$ENB | Enbridge Inc: 3.04% | 3.7% | 4.17%

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-05-01

$ON | ON Semiconductor: 7.78% | 1.74% | 8.26%

$SYK | Stryker Corp: 3.59% | 10.43% | 5.34%

$GPN | Global Payments Inc: 6.14% | 6.45% | 7.38%

$MGM | MGM Resorts International: 6.23% | 10.99% | 6.38%

$NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV: 5.57% | 10.28% | 6.26%

2023-05-02

$PFE | Pfizer Inc: 3.37% | 2.03% | 3.98%

$MAR | Marriott International Inc: 3.91% | 3.73% | 4.87%

$BP | : 4.24% | 10.65% | 3.67%

$PGR | Progressive Corporation: 3.42% | 9.27% | 4.4%

$ECL | Ecolab Inc: 3.81% | 10.12% | 5.85%

$SBUX | Starbucks Corporation: 4.72% | 2.51% | 5.09%

$ETN | Eaton Corp New: 4.63% | 3.39% | 7.15%

$AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc: 11.04% | 13.67% | 7.72%

$F | Ford Motor Company: 5.7% | 6.78% | 6.56%

$UBER | Uber Technologies Inc: 8.09% | 3.33% | 9.97%

2023-05-03

$CVS | CVS Health Corporation: 4.64% | 4.18% | 4.9%

$EL | Estee Lauder Companies Inc: 5.7% | 4.59% | 7.29%

$EMR | Emerson Electric Co: 3.44% | 7.21% | 2.52%

$PSA | Public Storage: 3.14% | 3.23% | 4.79%

$QCOM | QUALCOMM Inc: 6.25% | 3.67% | 6.55%

2023-05-04

$MRNA | Moderna Inc: 11.63% | 8.46% | 7.67%

$BDX | Becton Dickinson and Company: 3.93% | 5.3% | 4.34%

$COP | ConocoPhillips: 4.29% | 4.72% | 4.34%

$SQ | Square Inc: 10.19% | 2.5% | 9.71%

$BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc: 5.89% | 4.48% | 5.36%

$AAPL | Apple Inc: 4.77% | 6.98% | 4.13%

$TEAM | Atlassian Corporation PLC: 11.47% | 7.29% | 10.18%

2023-05-05

$D | Dominion Energy Inc: 2.68% | 4.13% | 4.97%

$CI | Cigna Corporation: 4.58% | 2.7% | 6.51%

$ENB | Enbridge Inc: 3.04% | 3.7% | 4.17%

I own 1 share of ARKK from when I just got rolling with this investing gimmick after they dropped like 25 bucks. I think it sunk another 80 bucks or so after that. See also DOCN. But at least that one I might DCA down someday. I am mostly a SCHD JNJ TROW QCOM guy now

I've watched him since 2019, and here's my take.

1. I'll just start by saying this, imo, out of all the investing channels that go through individual stocks and give out explicit opinions ( i.e. this stock is a buy/sell/hold. I'm buying this and that) his probably comes out on top. worse case top 3-5 ( depending on the viewers financial literacy and needs), #1 for me though. (the bar in this category isn't particularly high, because it's tricky and financially certified/licensed youtubers avoid it like the plague)
2. Credit where credit is due, he did get lucky with Tesla, big time, not only he bought low when no one was buying, he also held until he 20Xed. which very few people have actually done. But don't forget that he did serious DD, had a thesis and stood his ground for 1 year+ while the stock was stagnant/tanking and then 4 years on the run.
3. Now the misconception is that he got lucky on Tesla, and that's it. But actually he made amazing stock picks throughout the years, and the impressive thing he would consistently sell around the top to rotate to a better play (aka he did not hold everything at the same time).
4. I'll go through the stocks that come to mind ( numbers may not be 100% accurate, but basically in the ball park). he 2Xed on FIZZ , he 3Xed on RVLV, he 2-3Xed on META, he 5Xed on ELF (probably more), he 1.5X on JP, 2X AAPL, 2Xed QCOM, 2-3X IRBT, 2X SWKS...
5. Did he drop the ball, Yes. VGFC is basically worthless (he knew the risk), TTCF is down 91% from when he started buying (he had a significant % of his portfolio tied up there), VYGV (went bankrupt, he did not anticipate such sudden risk).
6. Jeremy's performance is not the point of this channel ( even though, on average, it's pretty good) the point is to follow him learn from his success and mistakes, he has a public/private portfolio that he sometimes shares on his youtube and he always have a thesis for each one of his trades and each of his stocks. And most of all his investing fundamentals are consistent.
7. I'll address the low quality videos, yes most of his videos are low quality at this point, for the last 2 years he's basically saying buy the dip. when he has to make 2-3 videos a day for years, saying the same message again and again, low quality videos are basically expected. And he made the decision to sell out to the algorithm. As a long time viewer this does bother me, but I rather have filler videos between valuable videos as opposed to inconsistent uploads. I would recommend following his channel for a bit longer period of time to get what's the channel's about, it's literally a Long term investing channel (boring, I know). on top of that he currently mostly caters to his discord and patreon which you know are paid, and not cheap.
8. imo, the biggest takeaway from his channel is to learn investing fundamentals, you know, buy and hold, buy when people are fearful, sell when people are greedy, buy when there's blood in the streets. Stick to the plan, stick to your thesis. watch earning calls, read 10Ks read 10Qs and read them twice ( which I never heard any other youtuber say).
9. Now if you're watching his channel and not disagreeing with him often regarding specific stock DD and thesis, do yourself a favor, stop watching, unsub, buy an index fund. otherwise you'll lose a lot of money. At the end of the day you have to make your own decisions.

I hope this makes sense. I'll answer any questions if I missed something.

Hmmm. What willl be my next banbet, GGOGL 92 within a month or QCOM just a bit over 90 within a month.

QCOM, Next stop in the 90s.

Choo-choo the loss porn train is leaving!

Yeah saw that, could be bad news for QCOM since they're looking to go heavy on auto too.

For me, AMD's call is all about cloud and integrating their acquisitions (discrete chips, AI inference, the MI300)

I learned my lesson during the Dotcom era, late 1999 - early 2000 - Y2K, heavily investing in QCOM and one other internet darling - I am a f-ing genius - easy money. QCOM drops 10%, I am a genius - buy more, drops more - I buy more - my mid April - down $300K - lost all my gains and some principle.

It taught me a valuable lesson - have an upside as well as a downside strategy. On the downside, if my original investment dollars loses 15--20% get out regardless of your price target or thinking; it tells me I missed something.

Secondly, avoid averaging down (good money chasing bad) unless there was a major global overriding event that caused the price collapse that you can correlate to the drop (know it did - not think it did). Every talking head has a mouth and anuss and excrement comes out of both frequently.

Slow and steady wins the race and stick for your investment philosphy and do not chase IPO or fades.

Retired early 8 1/2 years ago - living the good life.

Good Luck.

ugh, dude, I can already tell from 30 seconds of googling that you were under the impression that shorting FRB was a free money machine (or something to that effect)

FYI - banks have been getting dicked during Q1 earnings season

Plus, virtually nobody from the tech sector has held their earnings call yet.....you're not just getting your earnings news from reddit / twitter / discord by any chance, are you.....

• You've got MSFT, TI, JNPR reporting right now as I type out this post

• Tomorrow: PEGA, SLAB, NOW, NTGR, PTC

• Thursday: INTC, NNET,

• Next Monday: ZI, RMBS, NXPI

• Next Tuesday: AMD, PAYC, SPT, UBER

• Next Wednesday: AVT, OLED, CFLT, QCOM

• Next Thursday: BMBL, SQ, DBX, FTNT, SHOP, MSI, QLYS, LYFT

I had a manager (VP) tell me straight-up that I wasn't allowed to give any "exceeds expectations" reviews to my staff. I'm 99% sure he had a bonus pool to pull from and decided to give it only to his cronies. I left the company (QCOM) shortly after the incident.

Not a gamble. This is about as legit as they get. Think QCOM type investment. Some math from user over on ST:

Annualizing the $303.15 MM in damages (which is exactly 75% of the $404.2 MM upper limit that Gilstrap set) to come up with potential annual royalties for both Samsung and all other infringers (any assumptions error on the conservative side - feel free to point out corrections/errors with sources).

Assumptions:

'339 - 12/20/2021 (infringement date) = 16 mos.

'918 - 07/15/2020 = 33 mos. + '054 - 12/20/2021 = 16 mos. Average: (33 + 16) / 2 = 24.5 mos. (averaging the two periods)

'160 - 05/03/2022 = 11 mos. '060 - 05/03/2022 = 11 mos.

'339 - $33.15 MM / 16 mo. X 12 = $24.86 MM per yr. '918 & '054 - $147.23 MM / 24.5 X 12 = $82 MM per yr. '160 & '060 - $122.78 MM / 11 = $133.94 MM per yr.

$24.86 + $82 + $133.94 = $240.78 MM (41% of market)

$240.78 / 41% X 59% = $346.48 MM (59% of market)

$240.78 + $346.48 = $587.26 MM (100% of market)

So $587.26 MM potential annual royalties from just these 5 patents alone!

Is QCOM not a decent play at the current multiples? Is the current price due to most of of QCOMs semis going into mobiles and cars and recession fears?

Thanks !

$qcom chart looks exactly like silvergate. Just buy puts based off that.

Lol, the only win was saying to buy QCOM at the Oct bottom and they still did worse than SPY/QQQ.

What do you guys feel about QCOM? Looks more reasonable in terms of multiples?

Speaking about semis, how you guys feel about QCOM. Multiples look much better compared to the pack

other than funds, for individual stocks, QCOM, MSFT, GS in that order

Take the win. I’m not sure about a semi ETF.

The expense ratio on FSELX is awful.

Part of me wants to tell you to just go buy TSM or ASML because the rest of the semi pretty much rely on them. ASML right now is overvalued though and TSM is fair to under (depending on how you look at it) but carries that whole “international risk” element.

I have ASML, TSM and QCOM in my portfolio.

Made money off AMD but I wouldn’t buy them now. Lost with NVDA , though if I held a week or two longer would’ve made money. NVDA as far as I can tell does not have the fundamentals to justify their current price.

QCOM is working on ARM CPUs for servers. NXPI is eating a good chunk of MobileEyes lunch. TSM is fabbing CPUs for e.g. AAPL. ARM holding has all kinds of designs targeting INTC businesses.

The list is pretty long..

BA, SQ, QCOM, SPR, INTC, WFC, JPM, BAC, DVN

QCOM is trading within a tight range for like weeks now

SMH is semiconductor ETF where a lot of megacap resides such as AVGO TXN QCOM NVDA AMD INTC TSMC ASML etc etc etc.

It has outperformed QQQ and SPY and for being non leverage ETF.

Obviously if you compare beta or sharpe ratio then it won't be compare to QQQ or SPY for obvious reasons but comparing to the leveraged ETFs such as QLD or SOXL or TQQQ, there is no comparison. SMH can't go to 0 or be liquidated in a nightmare scenarios of 60-70% market melt down (theoretical of course) when you know all leveraged ETFs such as QLD and SOXL and TQQQ will all be gone by then.

See this.

Look deeper.

First Samsung's memory business is the largest in the world. Semis trade in anticipation of their business cycle. When Samsung cuts production it means the memory cycle can now 'bottom' in terms of prices and thus investors feel better about jumping in (note: SK Hynix, Korea's second biggest memory producer was up even more). From a mid to long term standpoint - memory demand growth is very much a secular trend. The world producers and needs to store more data in the future than today.

Second, Samsung's mobile business did much better than expected. China reopening has been good for premium mobile phone producers (headsup AAPL putholders).

Watch MU, QCOM, SKWS, and QRVO on Monday. See their reactions.

NVDA is kicking butt but other sold-ish companies like TXN, AVGO and QCOM are diubg far less well. Bet on the industry via ETFs rather than guess if a single stock is played out. QQQ/XLK/SOXX all are still well under January 2022.

NVDA been saying their chip but Qcom is more efficient lol

At least QCOM is green, i take that as a win.

Wait so what I said was the truth. Thanks for confirmation. Insert number of years Aapl will beat QCOM chip. Take a guess and let me know.

Another thanks for the nice use of language so far. Superior being.

SPY is just crazy liquid and swinging... thinking about taking a break from it until I can get the right DTE formula. QCOM and CSCO are looking promising, following trends, but I'm studying those a bit more.

QCOM 140 is on

they're two entirely different companies. The Analog market has been going strong this whole time but you need to wonder, at some point, if it's going to turn for ON at some point. Concurrently, QCOM's business is in the bottoming process.

I like ON but I'm a buyer of QCOM on pullbacks. I need fear to come into ON before I touch it and I think it will come.

The only thing that would be dumber than $350 NVDA would probably be $800 QCOM in 1999.

>EU PATENT BODY TO SET UP, MANAGE DATA BASE ON TECH-STANDARD PATENTS - EU DRAFT REGULATION $QCOM

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-03-28 ^13:19:38 ^EDT-0400

Have been assigned to a long term project for QCOM

According to CFRA research, QCOM is severely undervalued.

It's not necessarily a post to buy, but a post to drive a discussion around QCOM as an investment

I just hope Qcom is coming back after getting beaten so much. We will see.

I have MU but thinking of selling half and buying QCOM, they have very similar charts but QCOM seems like it has more future potential.

I have QCOM in my portfolio. I was going to ask why you didn’t include something about their history of innovation in wireless tech (patents) and their role/push in future 6G rollout .

Had to scroll to the end to see the blurb of it.

I own shares of QCOM you think they'll be able to take some money?

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• TSLA 04/21 195P for $12.05 or less
• MARA 04/21 8.5P for $1.10 or less
• HUT 04/21 1.5P for $0.10 or less
• DPST 04/21 9P for $1.30 or less
• OTLY 04/21 2.5P for $0.10 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• SOFI 04/21 6C for $0.20 or less
• JPM 04/21 130P for $4.10 or less
• PTON 04/21 10.5C for $0.60 or less
• UAL 04/21 44.5C for $2.20 or less
• QCOM 04/21 124C for $4.10 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Yummy in My Tummy (Jagshemash!)

Very nice! Technical analysis and make indicator friend use old prices to guess important prices now.

Here we do analyze of current option open interest. We make big brain play by calculating portfolio-level greeks - mostly Delta and Gamma. Then, using greeks we find best price levels for max gamma and near-neutral delta.

Sometimes, stock price make big move around these levels. We use past reactions to make smart decisions for buy and sells.

Calculations use binomial option pricing model for simulate size and duration of price move. Best plays get money from both direction and increase in IV.

Notes - Wrinkle in Brain, More Knowledge

• Price moved past entry price? Be careful like road in Kazakhstan! Something changed since plays were calculated.
• Double position profit? Sell half, freeroll rest at your choice.
• Me bet 1% of all money on trades. Unsure? Bet 0.5% or 0.25% and make dollar-cost average.
• Plays calculated before market open. Be aware when enter after. New price can break our big brain analysis.

FAQ - Because Already Been Asked

• Many puts. You gay bear?
  • No, no. Some company price too high, like castle in the sky. Play mean-revert to or away from important price.
• You do all these plays?
  • No, no. Share many play here for all apes make gain porn. Use extra brain, pick favorite play, make win.
• New play same ticker, what do?
  • Old play not good anymore, like expired cheese. Say goodbye. Follow new play.
• Where crayons? See words only.
  • Click link above, find tasty crayon.
• Back-test, you do?
  • Yes, yes! We see Sharpe Ratio 1.76, win rate 63% (error margin 7%, not bad!)
• History perform?
  • Realized Sharpe Ratio 1.88, win rate 66%. 95% sure win rate between 62% and 77%. (Stats from future, 2023-02-28, shhh!)

QCOM for mobile and auto AI.

And? Both AMD and QCOM are fabless. The most valuable part of a chip is in its design.

QCOM 155 call for 06/16 at 0.83

now tsla lost its subsidies

China speeding up its own semi tech/production

soon Qcom and Txn will be ditched and huawei most likely replace Aapl

in few years amd nvda gets ditched

what else, sbux cat mcd…

let’s see how far this shit goes

The stocks that have gained the most value today are Tesla (TSLA) and Qualcomm (QCOM). The biggest loser is First Republic Bank (FRC), which is down 15.22%.

31 years old, my portfolio consists of:

22% VOO

9.8% APPL

8.96% AMAT

7.78% WM

7.7% QQQ

7.3% GOOGL

5.6% VHT

5.5% V

5% SBUX

5% QCOM

4.3% SCHD

2.75% AMZN

2.5% CAT

2.1% NVDA

1.8% TGT

1% BAC

Can somebody explain why AMD, NVDA, Microsoft and Google were all green today, but almost everything else was red?

(yes, a few others like TSM, QCOM, ADBE, ASML and MU also green)

Bonus Question: What's going on with semiconductors lately? Everybody super bullish on semis?

I remember and lived QCOM from late 1998 to March-April 2000, thought I was a f-ing genius until I lost $300K in two weeks. Prices dropped 10-15% rushed in brought more as I am a f-ing genius and then boom.

P/E itself is not a great metric unless its a steady state stock. That said looking at https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d , its a cyclical stock benefiting from next big hype. Crypto boom helped sell enormous amount of GPUs and now that is down, its GPU sales have cratered. Now the latest hype is around Generative AI. I think this hype will also pass. There will be short term boom in investment from few big CSPs and then it will crater as well. NVDA also are in Automotive market but that has tons of competition from vertically integrated companies like Tesla or even GM and then there are others like QCOM, MBLY and many other. Chinese will also have their in house developed chips for sure.

Overall its a good company and I know employees are generally happy there as well plus Jensen is a good CEO. But the company is way over valued at this point.

Agree with QCOM. ARM IPO could have some interesting implications given they are a major licensee.

Those are all in no man's land / falling knife territory, below 200 day moving average etc. You'll probably be fine with them over 5 years though. Idk about QCOM though, I'd buy AMAT or AVGO or QCOM if I wanted semi exposure.

Starting some positions in DIS, QCOM, ABT. Feel like they’re due for a bounce.

DIS, TSLA, QCOM, AMZN.

If I lose 20% of my original investment dollars, as an example, I buy a stock at $100/share - if it drops to $80/share. I am out - better to get out early than lose more - yes, it could go back up - so be it. If I held QCOM for 20 years, I would have made nice profit - but my mental health has no ROI.

I have only average twice in my life - AMD from $4.00 to $2.50. and one now MVST that I average to an average cost of $1.87 that I like and waiting on,.

I personally feel the average down is a losing mentality - I always ask myself - what did miss? Were there overriding factors? I will watch but rarely buy back in.

Good Luck - this is my philosophy and it works for me.

Correct. Look at the fabless companies, most have a higher market cap than Intel and Intel sells a lot of cpus.

NVDA, amd, avgo, txn, Qcom: all fabless and all valued higher than Intel. The market has spoken, owning fabs are detrimental to your company.

I learned my lesson during the Dotcom bubble. I thought I was a "F"-ing genius with QCOM and few others from 1998-2000 and all the Y2K hoopla. In mid-late Jan, there was like a 10% drop - "I am a f-ing genius, rushed in to buy the dip"; by mid March-April, lost $300K and got out it.

It taught me a valuable lesson, max out retirement accounts with low cost mutual funds and save 15% cash of yearly income for emergencies, after that than purchase blue chips names and reinvest dividends.

Then and only then develop a ~10 stock speculative portfolio that you did a lot of DD. For me, more than 10 are difficult to keep current.

It also taught me to have a strategy on both the upside run and to manage downside risk (if any drops by ~20% of my initial investment dollars - I am out but will watch). On the upside, I take profits at 25% and if its 50%, I sell 1/2 - 1/3 and let the remainder ride and not really tracking it. (Today those stocks include META, BABA, CC, AMD, and LLY.)

So when the crash happen in 2008, I was well positioned and rode it out. Retiring early and been enjoying the good life.

Today, I have a speculative portfolio to keep my mind active. I will ride this crash out and look for opportunities for my speculative portfolio.

$6k Portfolio:

4.34% SOFI

4.34% PLTR

4.34% V

4.34% UNH

8.56% ETFs

8.56% AAPL

8.56% MSFT

8.56% GOOGL

8.56% DIS

8.56% QCOM

12.85% TSLA

12.85% AMZN

NVDA is now worth more than AMD, INTC, QCOM, and TXN combined.

If that doesn't scream bubble, I don't know what does.

I don't hate the company, it's great. The stock on the other hand is terrible.

It's the poster child for the current AI bubble like TSLA was for the EV bubble.

And of course people will complain later when it crashes because "Cramer said it was worth $1T".

Let me put it another way, for the same price, one could get:

$50B for random profitable mid cap(s) + AMD + INTC + QCOM + TXN

or

NVDA

AMD - 132B

Intel - 120B

QCOM - 120B

NVDA - 570B

NVDA is worth more than the 3 companies combined lol. It has taken over Tesla as the most insane overpriced stock in this market. It's also going to have DECLINING revenues next Q.

Shorting this thing to the bottom of the ocean

Mid-40s, curious what changes you'd all suggest. Thanks in advance.

Symbol | Pct ------ | --- QCOM | 11.37% GOOGL | 11.32% GE | 9.64% VOO | 8.74% JEPI | 4.69% AAPL | 4.62% MA | 3.58% MSFT | 3.06% ARCC | 2.98% AMZN | 2.95% RLY | 2.83% GEHC | 2.73% VHT | 2.32% BAC | 2.15% GM | 1.90% NVDA | 1.89% SBSW | 1.84% OCSL | 1.79% AAGTX | 1.77% AALTX | 1.76% SPMD | 1.69% VXUS | 1.63% SPSM | 1.60% GSBD | 1.54% VDC | 1.49% PSLV | 1.37% M | 1.30% ICLN | 1.29% WM | 1.24% META | 1.09% PHYS | 0.83% UBER | 0.68% HMY | 0.33%

Qcom at pe 11 and amd nvda at 95.

>Qualcomm Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend By 7 Percent $QCOM

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-03-08 ^09:00:38 ^EST-0500

AMD and Nvidia P/E is 100. Intel and qcom P/E are like 12. Why is there such a big difference? Are Intel and QCOM not gonna do AI bro?

I'm bullish... at $100.

I can either buy AMD + INTC + QCOM + TXN and still have enough for another profitable midcap.

Or I can buy NVDA.

That's how expensive it is.

Over the years there’s lots of em - QCOM, TSLA, AAPL, Dexcom, and others.

I'm in the same boat. QCOM 120C's, I'm going to let them ride, and roll if needed. TXN seems like it has a hard time breaking that $180 level, 23X times forward estimates? Seems rich? If I would have to guess if its topping out, or basing for a move higher I would say the former, imo.

For sure. I mean it's not just amazong data centers. Right now QCOM and ARM are both in lawsuits, because of QCOM trying to get into that market via their purchase of Nuvia. ARM claims they can't use Nuvia's designs, but yeah, SoC is what powers Apple's M chips.

It's super interesting stuff. Like ARM is going to be an important company, just don't know about the evaluation.

Not sure the reasoning, but that thing has been a weird hot potato. Like when the NVDA deal fell through and then QCOM wanted or wants to buy a big stake to try to keep independent, since SOC is becoming a really popular architecture.

I think any investor should have at least a 10-20% allocation to international stocks (VXUS). https://imgur.com/a/5O5xgrd

There are always individual stocks worth investing in if you're willing to do some research into it. Here are some of the recent names that have come up in the past discussion threads that seemed interesting to me valuation-wise. I'll put a * next to the ones I own. Big tech (META *, GOOG * , CRM), agriculture (MOS, CF, IPI, TWI), mid-tech (CLFD * , PSTG), lumber/homebuilders (UFPI * , LPX, BCC, BLDR, TREX, DHI), financials (WAL, various Canadian banks), coal (BTU * , AMR * , ARCH, CEIX), steel (CLF, X), copper (FCX * , Teck, WIRE), oil & gas (PBR, FLNG), semiconductors (TXN, QCOM, MU, DIOD), railroads (UNP, CP, CNI), defense (NOC), healthcare (CVS, PFE), DAR, ATKR, MLI, ASO, ...

QCOM and/or CRWD

no it’s not bullish at all if Biden bans Tiktok

Expect retaliation on Mcd Sbux Aapl Nke Tsla and F

don’t really expect any impact on Us semi like Qcom or Txn YET

but qcom and txn could be great short in 3-5years

I'd go with a diversified index of mature, steady, dividend-paying public equities. Off the top of my head, some form of

Nat Res (e.g. BP, CVX, XOM, PSX, ET, KMI are all solid candidates)

Utilities (e.g. D, NRG, DUK, SO, EXC)

CPG (e.g. JNJ, WBA, PG, WMT)

Industrial (e.g. APD, ADM, MMM, CAT, NOC, WM)

FIG (e.g. C, JPM, V, BLK, BX, KKR, BRK)

RE (O, ESS)

HC (LLY, PFE, BMY)

Tech (generally hardware companies - e.g. IBM, QCOM, TXN, GRMN)

For now. Their development of their own 5G chip has not gone according to plan. But not sure it really matters as QCOM has intentionally diversified into things like IoT and auto to reduce the dependence on revenue from Apple. Samsung also is mostly using QCOM chips in their high end phones.

so only intel is risk averse, not NVDA AMD QCOM APPLE GOOGLE MSFT ? The point is intel cant pay top dollar to top talent, as simple as that.

QCOM is only competitive because it doesen't have much competition though. Intel seemed very successful when it was in such an environment as well.

Apple is at least a couple of years if not more ahead of QCOM they just don't sell their chips to third parties...

Just to add my previous comment, I think INTC best case scenario is trading on par with the valuation of TXN. But TXN has a solid and stable divi. INTC obviously does not . So it'll be tricky for them to attract optimistic investors. Because their growth prospects suck too.

I don't ever think it'll trade on par with NVDA or AMD's multiples again

Even a fabless like QCOM looks more valuable than INTC . Similar multiples but overall a much more competitive and respectable company

Just depends on what moves down and how much. I like QCOM and AMD. Being retired if some dividend stocks get hammered I would add. I like ABBV at $130. If SPG fell to below $100. I like UBER long term and would love to add below $27. I own PERI and it is a small cap growth digital ad company that I own at $20. Sb near $40. I have 3,200 shares but if it tanks to $25 I probably add 800-1,800. Depends on other valuations and convictions. I sold puts on AEHR today at $25 strike. Dividend I would add to my ARCC below their nav. I want to start a position in ORCC ( these are for purely cashflow as approx 90% profits are passed to shareholders so capital appreciation is minimal). I like PSX below $90, but that is dependent on oil spread and subject to change. Most of the above is stuff I already own. I like NVDA as a company but not at these prices even with todays earnings. I like ON, but have to see what price I would be good owning at. I got in INMD at $33.3 1/11 and out at $39.5 on 2/15. I sold $30 puts expire May on that one as it sits at $36.4 today. I like C as it is well below tangible book value and a nice dividend. Market deterioration could take it below $45 which to me is a long term steal. It is in transition so have to be patient if entering a position. I love ATKR, but that ran away from me before I could get a sizeable position, but up 49%. I own a tenth of what I should and I knew it. BROS is another interesting one that is growing rapidly.

Depending on what you think the market will do etc, you need to do YOUR due diligence and figure out your WHY for buying any stock and price point. Nothing is stagnant though, so you always need to be updating and reviewing your thesis for your conviction in any equity. Just note, the above are my personal thoughts and not recommendations as I don’t know your personal financial position and/or risk tolerances

What stocks do you like?

Plenty of tech manufacturers hire Chinese, and they compete just fine. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, LRCX, QCOM, AMD, MU, and even TSMC all hire Chinese.

Intel's the odd one out here in their bigotry, and they're rightfully suffering for it.

AVGO in the long term, though it's had a really good run recently and may be pretty well valued at this point. QCOM might be a good alternative in the semiconductor sector - your suggestion of TSM* (the ticker is not TSMC) isn't bad either though I have geopolitical concerns about it.

MSFT is one of the more obvious ones.

I really like NVO - it's an ADR and pays out twice annually, with it's Q4 dividend payment being substantially larger than its Q2 dividends but this is common with European stocks. NVO owns and produces two drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, that are set to become among the best selling pharmaceuticals of all time over the coming decade as far as I'm concerned. Take that for what you will and definitely do your due diligence because NVO has a high p/e of 40.

SQM; BHP and RIO are growth as far as I'm concerned and offer great dividends.

Look at REITs - some are definitely growth. I own PLD and PSA, but there are much higher dividend paying ones that are still strong (STAG; O; MPW; AGNC; etc).

Yes. The reason why tech companies are so great is because of their economics. Doubling your output or revenue is much less capital intensive than with a railway or utility company, for example. Especially in the age of cloud and SaaS. Many of those companies are not profitable, yes, but those are not the ones I'm talking about. Take a look at Adobe, Salesforce, or Microsoft. They don't need to build a new factory to double their output and they don't need to double their input goods, they just need better sales (that's still not a non-issue, of course). Of course there is still labor and things like cloud infrastructure which is a significant expense, but the economics and logistics of software are just that good, when done right.

There are definitely companies that warrant an elevated PE ratio. And here I'd also like to add that it's not just tech companies, but also, businesses all around have evolved a lot. There is a great article on Return on Invested Capital from Morgan Stanley from a few months ago. In Exhibit 18 on page 25, there is a great visualization of what drives ROIC in different companies:

• On one hand, there is differentiation (high NOPAT (net operating profit after taxes) over sales => high NOPAT margin drives ROIC) , which is typical for Tech companies like I described above (highlighted are MSFT, ORCL, AAPL, GOOG, META, QCOM, MA). Another good examples are NVO (healthcare) and ASML (also tech but not software), for example, but there are many more.

• On the other hand, there is cost leadership (high invested capital turnover (sales / IC) drives ROIC), which is typical for retail and consumer brands. These are companies that have high return despite lower margins Highlighted are WMT, AMZN, NKE, HD, TGT. Another examples are AZO, ULTA, COST, basically all well-performing retail stocks. But also probably many others.

Now, the second point is where I think you're slightly wrong. You mentioned WMT specifically, which currently has a PE of >40. Higher than all the tech companies you mentioned. NKE or COST, likewise. KO, PEP, CL,... A good business model, a significant moat, leveraging economies of scale, improvements in efficiency (efficiency is a big reason why GE is a failed company), all of these can warrant an elevated PE. Now, I'm not saying that none of these are overvalued. I just want to highlight how it's not just shiny new things that drive valuation, but also the moat and the business model. All in all, PE is not that important metric when comparing different stocks, I think. It's barely informative when you look at a sector. It's useful when looking at the history of PE of a specific company, though it's still not enough to judge if the company is under/overvalued, just one of the factors.

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|10|First Seen In WSB|2 months ago Total Comments|100|Previous Best DD| Account Age|8 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: TSLA and NVDA look good for tomorrow, keep an eye on QCOM and MU as well.

You clearly have no idea how advanced TSM is. TSM on its on own tier, which is light years ahead of Intel.

Also, you just creating a false narrative. You know nothing about the future. As fas as I know, the need for TSM may decline in the visible short term, but it ain’t ending. The demand for data centers ain’t going away.

Here is the list for TSM major clients: Apple Nvidia Amd Avgo Qcom

They own the market

What I don't understand is why all these subs focus on Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and TSM (since Buffet's buy). The chip industry is a waaay bigger than these companies with, frankly, a lot less risk associated with them.

AMD and Intel make CPUS... do you really want to be forever tied to the PC market? (though data center is a bright spot for AMD, and should be for Intel though they've executed terribly as of late).

Now that value has become more popular, I kind of understand why Intel is a popular one to bring up but what about the real value plays in the chip space; ADI, TXN, MCHP or even QCOM, AVGO.

Not to mention the universe of small caps or the semicap equipment space... KLAC, anyone?

List of stocks to buy and hold if you want to double your money in the next few years: GOOG, AMZN, AMD, QCOM, PYPL, UBER, SQ, ROKU, ABNB, TTWO

For senior level that's really low. I was at a company in silicon valley getting $150k base 10+ years ago. But id consider staff engineer to be 5+ yrs experience and where someone is considered senior engineer.

A friend was laid off in December from a startup and had a job at QCOM in 2 weeks. So I agree I think some places still hiring while others shedding.

You are diversified using ETFs... that is conservative. Pick a few Listed stocks if you want to take on more risk. AMZN, AAPL, QCOM would be a good start if you're willing to carry a little bit more risk. You're return will outpace the ETFs.

QCOM puts are gonna print in a month. Did no one listen to the investor call?

NVDA GOOGL QCOM AAPL TSLA 😤😤😤😤😤😤

Yeah. But I can assume it is rather a failed bet. Despite of Qcom being the lowest pe when compared to its peers, there is just a lack of momentum

Yeah fair enough! I see qcom rising back up over the next few weeks anyway

Haha. The wholistic market didn’t help my take at Qcom. So, I think all of these will move sideways for a while. I lost 40% of this. But I will let it ride

QCOM saying mobile chip demand was down 20%, apple saying they would have rocked the iphone earnings if not for supply and FX issues. Tim Cook is a con

$QCOM Fixed Wireless access is the backbone of 5G

They were high because that’s their most profitable quarter every year, compared to all Q4 they did pretty bad. In general QCOM is seeing a decline in phone demands

Literally two of the tickers, GILD and F, have moved beyond the ranges.

My response in other thread here: https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/10rwg84/option_probability_updates_on_sbux_qcom_hig_gild/j710d7a/