All commodity stocks are catching a bid. I guess with some fears of a banking collapse subsiding; investors believe that $FCX and $BP might still be able to secure some loans from banks to invest in mines & oil deposits?

I really like $HAL and $SLB at these current stock prices.

Agreed, the only real pullback I've seen are on the oil svce & equip stocks like $HAL and $SLB and the pipeline stocks like $KMI and $ET. $OXY and $MRO have pulled back as well I guess.

I'm concentrating my purchases there over $CVX, $XOM, and $BP.

I was putting money in sectors that were "unloved". Returns in larger companies in those sectors was not dissimilar. (Ex. SLB vs HAL although HAL is basically #2 in oil field services, or was at that time)

I bought a ton of TDW, hpk, pump, slb, val, and borr

Very long update from IBKR direct wording for anyone interested.

"The OCC Memo 52120 refers to stock from an exercise or assignment being sent or received from broker to broker instead of through the National Securities Clearing Corp clearing house. The OCC Memo 52120 has no impact upon your ability to exercise your option contracts and the consequences to you of doing so. Rather, it addresses the operational aspect for members of the clearinghouse who are obligated to clear and settle the SBNY transactions resulting from option exercise and NSCC (National Securities Clearing Corp) is essentially informing the members that they need to settle these bilaterally between themselves.

Note that the existence of a trading halt does not necessarily prevent brokers from transferring securities to make delivery nor does it prevent borrowing of shares to support a short position. As it currently stands, the price of the stock when halted will be used as the basis for determining the loan amount for any borrow. You should also understand that if you maintain a short position in a halted security, you may not be able to extinguish that short until the stock resumes trading, which could encompass an extended period over which you would be subject to stock borrow costs. You can monitor the borrow rate by selecting the "Analytical Tools" and then "SLB Rates" menu links from the TWS."

TDLR:

They will allow you to exercise and hold short, but at the broker nominated margin which last checked was 100% for SBNY at the halted price which was $70.

So to exercise one put option there would be requirement of $7000 margin.

If you don't already have a position in the oil stocks than yeah DCA in. I would focus on the gasoline refiners, oil pipelines, and oil service equipment stocks over Exxon and Chevron. My holdings are $PSX, $HAL, and $KMI.

Gasoline/Diesel is influenced but trades at a different price than Crude Oil. The same with the oil pipelines that usually get paid on volume of oil delivered/ transported. Than you have $HAL and $SLB which are the most volatile of the bunch. Think of them as the tech stocks of Crude Oil.

Who bought slb yesterday, show your face

Cramer about to be like “SLB is fineeeeee don’t go pulling your money out”

Damn, I was balls deep in SLB calls 😔

>OILFIELD SERVICE FIRM SLB EXPECTS HIGHER OIL PRICES NEXT YEAR AMID A SHORTFALL IN SUPPLIES -CEO OLIVIER LE PEUCH >SLB'S LE PEUCH IN CNBC INTERVIEW SAYS ANTICIPATES MODERATE GROWTH THIS YEAR

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-03-06 ^08:49:36 ^EST-0500

There is still some money to be made in some of the smaller service companies. Ensign drilling could be one. But i would watch out because alot of service companies have a substantial amount of debt, high capex for equipment maintenance, and they skim off the profits in the form of share based comp. the largest service companies are a little too richly valued for my liking, im looking at you slb. If you want some exposure to the energy industry i would go with a well run e&p company. Ovv or su could be worth a look. But personally, im going cash waiting for the next bust cycle to buy them up on the cheap.

Slb sold their shares for a loss so ya

Yes, you should diversify your holdings in energy, just like in any other sector. You wouldn’t go all-in on MCD or CMG. Energy investments should include major integrateds, E&Ps, refiners, and oilfield services. One of each would do. Ex: CVX, DVN, VLO, and SLB.

You can bet your sweet ass I could find someone to pay me to go get ocean trash to feed my catapults. Look at the dumbasses giving Adani money to create more pollution: https://www.globalcapital.com/article/297sitz2boxhpl0ffm29s/sri/banks-hit-by-fraud-complaint-to-sec-over-adani-slb-coal-links

Sold SLB that I’ve held since 2020. The ride is over.

SLB is the best one, but it’s ran up alot

I always recommend people overlay SLB, HAL & BKR with XOM (or any other oil major) and let that tell you how things turn out.
Oil is obviously very cyclical, but the drillers just never really get to ride the wave in a big way. Don't get me wrong - they're great buys when they're down, but you really need to buy at the bottom in order for it to make good financial sense.
Also, compare their dividend increases over the past few decades.

But one thing that I find interesting: oil companies keep talking about how they're now paying out gobs of cash to their investors. Why? Oil has been stable and trending around $80 for quite a while now. They say they're rewarding their investors for sticking with them thru the rough patch. But my personal opinion is they're under-investing in future production, which will cause the future price of oil to go/stay up. Green energy is slowly replacing oil. Worldwide birthrates are flatlining. So oil's simple solution is simple supply and demand: pump less, then charge more for it.

Oil really is controlled by an international cartel, all working together to ensure fat profits.

Are you in the uk?

If so you should be protected If you used a credit card. I think the states may have similar laws.

https://www.which.co.uk/consumer-rights/advice/how-can-i-get-my-money-back-if-a-company-goes-bust-aAmCs2Z30SLb#credit-card-protection

SLB was $74 5 years ago and is now $56 .

HAL was $54 5 years ago and is now $39.

It could still go up. I hate uncertainty.

Crude to $100+ in the summer. I've bet on that. I'm heavy into refiners like VLO, PSX, and PBF and oilfield equipment and services like SLB, CHX, and WHD. But really, I think who will benefit the most is a company with cheap access to an easy source of oil and can refine in house like SU or CVE.

Interesting. I wonder what percent of the wells that are in the permafrost are interacting with SLB. Those are the ones that if they freeze they won’t come back for years.

> Without western tech and operators

They still have those.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/slb-wins-russia-business-oilfield-rivals-exit-after-ukraine-invasion-2023-01-19/

usually I avoid anything trendy or hot. once it's discussed on reddit I tend to GTFO. plus, technology rarely develops the way people or investors imagine or project.

there was a quote from Carl Icahn, listed on Meb Faber's twitter account:

>Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoSlbSsX0AA5XSQ?format=png&name=small

I'm heavy into refiners and oil services. Not so sure about BOIL. Right now, I have VLO, PSX, PBF because they are the largest independent refiners in the US, I have SU because they would benefit a lot from cheap access to oil sands in Canada and they are fully integrated, so they can refine what they mine, and then on the services and equipment side I have SLB, CHX, and WHD because they have good financials. Who runs the oil machines and who runs the shops that sell the oil companies the shovels? Granted, I'm just a random guy in Reddit, so please do your own homework and DD.

I'm gonna be buying SLB and HAL and diamond handing my oil stocks

52 yo with at least a 15 year time horizon before needing to start touching anything. Several accounts across me and my spouse, some tax advantaged, some not, some managed, some self-managed. Largely buy and hold. And hold and hold. And buy. Had a wee bit of a diversification scare in the late 90's which may have left a lasting impression.

Canadian securities:

BNS – 1.04%

BAM – 0.14%

BN – 0.41%

BNRE – 0.25%

BMO – 1.16%

CXI – 0.16%

FFH – 0.93%

IFC – 0.71%

MFC – 0.38%

ONEX – 0.27%

RY – 1.05%

TD – 1.3%

AQN – 0.19%

CNQ – 0.52%

CVE – 0.76%

ENB – 0.97%

EFX – 0.33%

GEI – 0.31%

IPCO – 0.28%

PSI – 0.21%

PPL – 0.26%

SU – 0.52%

TPZ – 0.36%

WCP – 0.52%

TRP – 0.59%

ADEN – 0.23%

CNR – 1.18%

CJT – 0.27%

EFN – 0.34%

FTT – 0.49%

MTL – 0.22%

TIH – 0.6%

WCN – 0.4%

MX – 0.17%

NKL – 0.22%

SJ – 0.67%

NTR – 0.62%

GIB.A – 0.28%

LSPD – 0.27%

NVEI – 0.07%

REAL – 0.23%

SHOP – 0.78%

AT – 0.13%

BCE – 0.46%

RCI.B – 0.35%

RAY.A – 0.31%

T – 0.7%

TRL-H – 0.06%

BIPC – 0.41%

BIP.UN – 0.41%

BEP.UN – 0.22%

BEPC – 0.06%

PIF – 0.34%

ATD – 1.14%

XTC – 0.12%

LNR – 0.23%

MTY – 0.24%

QSR – 0.14%

SRU.UN – 0.25%

KSI – 0.27%

More Canadian stuff:

HCAL – 0.43%

VCN – 3.45%

Other – 0.72%

Canadian denominated ETF’s, mostly non-Canadian holdings:

VGRO – 1.65%

XAW – 1.55%

MESH – 0.45%

MTAV – 0.5%

VIDY – 2.09%

VIU – 3.16%

ZEM – 0.9%

ZCH – 0.39%

Other – 1.74%

US securities:

APPL – 3.95%

APPF – 0.18%

ASML – 0.79%

ADSK – 0.14%

AVGO – 0.47%

CDNS – 0.23%

CIEN – 0.4%

CSCO – 0.3%

CRWD – 0.52%

HUBS – 0.22%

MFST – 0.86%

MU – 0.44%

MNDY – 0.36%

NVDA – 0.73%

NOW – 0.18%

SNOW – 0.2%

STEM – 0.23%

TWLO – 0.09%

GILD – 0.63%

ABCL – 0.33%

ABBV – 0.22%

CNC – 0.56%

DOCS – 0.22%

MRK – 0.51%

MCK – 1.04%

MEDP – 0.17%

TEVA – 0.26%

VRTX – 0.46%

BAC – 0.17%

BRK.B – 1.41%

JPM – 0.94%

PYPL – 0.26%

AMZN – 1.26%

BWA – 0.42%

FTCH – 0.11%

MCD – 0.61%

MELI – 0.45%

SBUX – 0.51%

TSLA – 0.29%

ABB – 0.31%

ACLLY – 0.01%

UNP – 0.19%

GOOGL – 0.51%

BOC – 0.3%

LYV – 0.19%

PINS – 0.23%

RBLX – 0.18%

DIS – 0.61%

KO – 0.7%

CVS – 0.34%

K – 0.58%

FIZZ – 0.22%

PG – 0.17%

XOM – 0.54%

SLB – 1.03%

HAL – 0.58%

IP – 0.13%

US denominated ETF’s:

VTI – 1.26%

VXUS 11.49%

ARKQ – 0.16%

BOTZ – 0.17%

IRBO – 0.18%

ROBO – 0.18%

ROBT – 0.18%

Other - Cash and fixed:

Cash – 11.56%

Other Bond Funds/ETF’s – 3.52%

I keep my account at $30,000 or so and withdraw all gains above that to spend on... not sure what. $30K is not enough capital to thetagang with (although I never buy shares, I just sell CSPs and when I do end up owning them, I sell CCs). But that's netted me maybe $400 in earning plays over the last couple of months (SLB, fuck you; ELF, wish I'd held on longer), and it doesn't seem worthwhile for a small account.

Can someone link me to a chart showing the price of crude oil today? I see it as up a little bit but I also see SLB and HAL getting crushed. Wondering if I'm looking at wrong chart. Thanks!

I dislike oil services stocks like HAL and SLB long term, though they are best in class of the space and can take market share. The fact is there will be slower oil production growth as competition increases from renewables. Major oil producers will do fine because even as demand slows, prices can be stable or even high and margins can improve as producers reduce spending on exploration. Oil services will be in trouble because they make money when oil producers spend money on exploring and drilling new wells. The best oil stocks long term I think are the largest producers (CVX, XOM) because they can survive and take market share if small players go bankrupt, refiners (PSX, MPC) because oil-derived products won't have the same demand issues, and high quality diversified midstream (EPD, ENB) because of high moats and continued US export dominance.

When SLB and HAL goes up, it's time to sell oil. If the oil services do well, that means there is going to be an oil production boom, instead of tight supplies and high prices. Oil producers are in fact increasing supply, not at a very fast pace, but that means future loose supply/demand dynamic and will lead to lower prices.

Anyone know why the oil stocks like HAL and SLB went down more then the rest of the market today? Thanks in advance!

Me too, dawg. Made bank on XOM, SLB and XLE.

This attitude is why I fukkin KILLED it with XOM and SLB last year.

Oh crap! I’m sorry man, you are down 2-3 times worse than most of us. Sounds to me like you have stayed in the growth stocks and perhaps done some risky short-selling. I went conservative 15 months ago when things were sliding. I’m down 20% since then, but that’s much better than -65%. My winners over that time period are Merck, Nucor, Devon Energy, Occidental, SLB, STKL, NVO, Glencore, PILBF, and RICK, (Think beer and hookers). I’m up 25%-50% with all of these over the last 15 months.

At first thought im leaning to the oil majors, now i would pick SLB. Cant say for sure that oil prices will stay high all year but pretty sure oil companies will still put out impressive bugets that will make its way to the services and SLB would be my #1. The company is doing better than they have in a long time and foreward pe looks to be around 20 so not too bad. I would be looking for a $70/$80 price target.

yeah, i remember. remember when i told you to buy 30c & 35c on SLB for Jan 2023 with me? instead you sold puts that expired in jan 2022...SLB is almost at $60.

"you are so arrogant. you think you know everything. valuations dont matter. youre just a stupid bear"

AFRM 10 Puts fev 17 SLB 59 Call fev 03 SPY 402.5 put tomorrow

Perfectly balanced

Hmmm... Not sure how HAL is going to turn out for you. I bought into all 3 during the market lows in 2020 - SLB, BKR & HAL. Have had a tiny investment in BKR for many years and it hasn't really done much. I only bought in again because everything oil was really low and I wanted to diversify. I have mostly sold out of them now the price has gone up so much.
Overlay HAL on an XOM chart and look at the last 5 10, 20 years, all-time and you'll see who consistently outperforms. And XOM pays a much better dividend, and has over the decades. A 40% increase on not much = not much more. Oil exploration is very cyclical and I've learned to only buy in towards the bottom, otherwise it's just dead money collecting 1-2% interest.

I've been buying into VZ, especially after it dropped fast. They expect their earnings to increase next year, and they're payout ratio is just over 50%, which isn't unreasonable. I've held Verizon for years and am content to do so, all while collecting a good dividend.

I have some weekly’s expiring on 27th for SLB and I’m still undecided if I should buy long calls on HAL before or after earnings.

Puts or calls

Have to say, I lost a boatload on SLB before they sold their US fracking business

SLB, HAL and BKR

Sad that theta is going to ruin my SLB calls

I think several companies will beat. SLB and Netflix are cooking the books 📚

Dear boomers,

Please protect my SLB calls tomorrow

Warmest regards,

Your son

!p SLB

SLB gonna beat tomorrow???

SIVB calls, CNXC puts, NTRS puts, SLB calls

two big ones are FAST which gives a hint of industrials. and SLB which gives a hint of energy.

SLB nation

Anyone looking at SLB??

Hi am new here. But my 2 cents worth say’s something is going on in the energy market. I see you have slb and oke on your short list. I have short signals all over in that sector. Lng, psx and eog was another one. Not at my computer at the moment. Plus the XLE on weekly has 3 weeks inside of one big red down week. Inside bar .

Correct! This is nothing new, but may be new to many on here. There are other ways to increase profit if you are still mildly bullish on SLB. For example, you can diagonalize it instead. One example is selling the Jan 27 61 Call for 0.65. This will not completely eliminate your risk, you will still have 1.27 risk. It will only reduce it by 0.65 or around 1/3. The advantage of this is if SLB does move up to 61 in the next 12 days, you can roll up to 63 or 64 10 DTE or so and take another credit on those calls (0.60 to 1.00 estimate) further reducing your risk and increasing your gain. Now your spread will be 59 to 64 so you increased your potential to $500 minus your debit while also reducing your risk some more. You can even turn it into a 5 point butterfly at this time by selling 2 Feb 24 64 calls and buying 1 Feb 24 69 call and definitely putting your trade for a credit (around 1.50-2.00 estimate) and risk free with a max gain of $500. It is all up to the individual’s risk tolerance and risk to reward tolerance. That’s the great thing about options. You make the rules on whether to get it, get out, add positions, etc.
With your adjustment, just know that the position is still theta negative if it stay around 58 to 60 area. That means it will slowly lose money as time passes. Once it goes in the 61 area, it will be theta positive and will make money as time passes. You are also capped at 61 so it the stock continues to go up the next 44 days, you won’t benefit from the increase. By diagonalizing it you can reassess every 7-10 days depending on your short strikes if you are neutral, bullish or bearish.

$SLB going into earnings on Friday

Some of the implied moves for earnings next week:

​

$NFLX 10.0%
$GS 3.0%
$MS 3.5%
$SI 38.3%
$AA 7.9%
$PG 2.9%
$UAL 6.2%
$IBKR 5.3%
$PRGS 5.8%
$SCHW 3.0
$JBHT 5.3%
$FAST 4.6%
$PPG 4.5%
$ALLY 6.8%
$SLB 3.9%
$STT 5.0%
$RF 4.2%

Some for the implied moves for next week:

​

$NFLX 10.0%

$GS 3.0%

$MS 3.5%

$SI 38.3%

$AA 7.9%

$PG 2.9%

$UAL 6.2%

$IBKR 5.3%

$PRGS 5.8%

$SCHW 3.0

$JBHT 5.3%

$FAST 4.6%

$PPG 4.5%

$ALLY 6.8%

$SLB 3.9%

$STT 5.0%

$RF 4.2%

Credit to u/KRIBZ:

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-01-17

$UAL | United Airlines Holdings Inc: 6.84% | 10.94% | 6.52%

$IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group Inc: 4.41% | 7.6% | 4.86%

$SBNY | Signature Bank: 6.61% | 5.36% | 11.0%

$CFG | Citizens Financial Group Inc: 4.24% | 7.24% | 4.36%

$GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc: 3.43% | 1.26% | 2.97%

$MS | Morgan Stanley: 4.06% | 6.06% | 3.52%

​

2023-01-18

$KMI | Kinder Morgan Inc: 3.72% | 6.25% | 2.39%

$PLD | Prologis: 2.72% | 4.5% | 3.8%

$PNC | PNC Financial Services Group Inc: 3.55% | 1.02% | 3.58%

$DFS | Discover Financial Services: 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.48%

$FHN | First Horizon Corporation: 3.29% | 1.21% | 2.76%

$SCHW | Charles Schwab Corporation: 4.08% | 4.48% | 3.78%

$JBHT | J B Hunt Transport Services Inc: 3.77% | 1.95% | 5.15%

$AA | Alcoa Corporation: 8.95% | 12.17% | 7.93%

​

2023-01-19

$KEY | KeyCorp: 3.79% | 1.71% | 3.47%

$NFLX | Netflix Inc: 11.58% | 17.49% | 10.03%

$PPG | PPG Industries Inc: 3.82% | 5.68% | 3.99%

$SIVB | SVB Financial Group: 7.4% | 24.3% | 11.53%

$TFC | Truist Financial Corporation: 3.45% | 2.46% | 3.64%

$FAST | Fastenal Company: 5.19% | 8.22% | 4.61%

$MTB | M&T Bank Corporation: 4.08% | 13.29% | 5.13%

$NTRS | Northern Trust Corporation: 4.47% | 5.84% | 4.63%

$PG | Procter and Gamble Co: 3.56% | 2.19% | 2.9%

$CMA | Comerica Inc: 4.64% | 8.09% | 3.4%

$FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp: 3.8% | 6.62% | 5.48%

$CNXC | Concentrix Corporation: 7.79% | 7.97% | 3.89%

​

2023-01-20

$STT | State Street Corporation: 5.44% | 11.33% | 8.98%

$ALLY | Ally Financial Inc: 5.55% | 4.65% | 11.27%

$RF | Regions Financial Corporation: 4.05% | 5.51% | 7.62%

$SLB | Schlumberger Ltd: 4.52% | 11.72% | 5.18%

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Morgan Stanley #MS, Netflix #NFLX, Goldman Sachs #GS, Silvergate Capital #SI, Citizens Financial #CFG, United Airlines #UAL, Charles Schwab #SCHW, Signature Bank #SBNY, Procter & Gamble #PG, and SLB #SLB.

​

http://eps.sh/cal

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING
2023-01-17
$UAL | United Airlines Holdings Inc: 6.84% | 10.94% | 6.52%
$IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group Inc: 4.41% | 7.6% | 4.86%
$SBNY | Signature Bank: 6.61% | 5.36% | 11.0%
$CFG | Citizens Financial Group Inc: 4.24% | 7.24% | 4.36%
$GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc: 3.43% | 1.26% | 2.97%
$MS | Morgan Stanley: 4.06% | 6.06% | 3.52%
2023-01-18
$KMI | Kinder Morgan Inc: 3.72% | 6.25% | 2.39%
$PLD | Prologis: 2.72% | 4.5% | 3.8%
$PNC | PNC Financial Services Group Inc: 3.55% | 1.02% | 3.58%
$DFS | Discover Financial Services: 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.48%
$FHN | First Horizon Corporation: 3.29% | 1.21% | 2.76%
$SCHW | Charles Schwab Corporation: 4.08% | 4.48% | 3.78%
$JBHT | J B Hunt Transport Services Inc: 3.77% | 1.95% | 5.15%
$AA | Alcoa Corporation: 8.95% | 12.17% | 7.93%
2023-01-19
$KEY | KeyCorp: 3.79% | 1.71% | 3.47%
$NFLX | Netflix Inc: 11.58% | 17.49% | 10.03%
$PPG | PPG Industries Inc: 3.82% | 5.68% | 3.99%
$SIVB | SVB Financial Group: 7.4% | 24.3% | 11.53%
$TFC | Truist Financial Corporation: 3.45% | 2.46% | 3.64%
$FAST | Fastenal Company: 5.19% | 8.22% | 4.61%
$MTB | M&T Bank Corporation: 4.08% | 13.29% | 5.13%
$NTRS | Northern Trust Corporation: 4.47% | 5.84% | 4.63%
$PG | Procter and Gamble Co: 3.56% | 2.19% | 2.9%
$CMA | Comerica Inc: 4.64% | 8.09% | 3.4%
$FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp: 3.8% | 6.62% | 5.48%
$CNXC | Concentrix Corporation: 7.79% | 7.97% | 3.89%
2023-01-20
$STT | State Street Corporation: 5.44% | 11.33% | 8.98%
$ALLY | Ally Financial Inc: 5.55% | 4.65% | 11.27%
$RF | Regions Financial Corporation: 4.05% | 5.51% | 7.62%
$SLB | Schlumberger Ltd: 4.52% | 11.72% | 5.18%

$HES $SLB and $HAL the outperformers in $XLE world

This actually has what's made me feel so sus about the price movement we have seen today across the market. If crude is getting blasted as hard as it has been, and stocks like SLB and OXY are green? Seems kind of sketchy.

I personally like the service companies, preferring SLB over HAL, BKR. This way I am not sighted to one producer hoping I selected the correct one.

>I am watching APA, CPRX, CVX and SLB as potential breakout candidates. I believe that these companies have the fundamentals to support a breakout and if the market conditions are right, they could see some significant gains.

Almost as great as being balls deep in XOM, SLB, OXY and XLE.

>1. It is foolish to invest in a company that is facing negative EPS growth. $ATI is a much better choice, as it is expected to have positive EPS growth in the coming year.

2. $QCOM and $BOOT are both risky bets, as they are highly dependent on the continued success of their respective businesses (smartphones and cowboy boots). I would avoid these two stocks unless you are confident that their businesses will continue to do well.

3.$CAT and $SLB are both safer choices, as they operate in more stable industries (manufacturing and oil & gas). However, neither stock is expected to see significant growth in the near future, so you may want to consider other options if you're looking for capital appreciation potential.

These are actually my moves

$ATI Enter 100 shares for 32.31

Awaiting to fill: $QCOM 18 shares 100.6 $BOOT 50 shares $50 $CAT 15 shares 239.95 $SLB 100 shares $50

VUG 70 shares 199.95

1000 left in cash to yolo it on a 0dte tesla put or some stupid shit.

Thoughts?

So you think oil will go to record highs? And back over $100/ppb?

Btw HES has a P/E in the 20’s. That is where my short is in.

You could say XOM is good. With a P/E in the 8-9 range.

SLB - P/E 25 VLO - P/E 5.25 OXY - P/E 5.23 CVX - P/E 10

I feel the market has pegged oil stocks growth with the expectations of the latest high prices in oil. I believe the current prices, $70-$90 will create lower than forecasted earnings in Q1/Q/2.

Also, the 200 million barrels? That will move the oil price, maybe a few percentage points. But oil is down 30-40% from the highs. And back in it’s sweet spot. Between $40-$80.

CAT calls MRNA calls SLB calls SQQQ puts

1k - 12k now 14.5k , mostly slb and aso

Elon is that you? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604650028999405568?s=46&t=XySLb8RbewL9ObblPMTqcg

SLB is up there as well...not that long ago they were down around $12 but currently in the 40s.

SLB

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|2|First Seen In WSB|1 year ago Total Comments|111|Previous Best DD|x Account Age|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive

Same. I wouldnt be shocked to see it hit around 65-70 range before the end of the month. A lot of the services like SLB have been really hot the last month and a half or so as well. Sitting on some puts for both it and CVX, so I am feeling pretty good right now.

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|2|First Seen In WSB|1 year ago Total Comments|102|Previous Best DD|x Account Age|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) Vote Spam|Click to Vote|Vote Approve|Click to Vote

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive

Actually none, I prefer the service companies, particularly SLB.

Many energy and steel stocks are at or near ATHs. What bear market? The bear market is in tech, but stocks like CAT, DE, STLD, NUE, SLB and MPC are in well-defined uptrends and pullbacks have been largely short-lived and limited. An S&P near 4,000 (4,800 ATH) -- 4,315 over the summer. Only those bagholding tech stocks buy into the idea of an oppressive bear market.

Sold my XOM Puts and bought SLB calls.

A lot of folks use XOP, and it's roughly correlated. But a windfall profits tax on E&P companies could quickly break that correlation, and so could lower profit margins due to higher labor and other costs. But it's really liquid, so that might mitigate the non-perfect correlation. XLE is even less correlated because the integrated oils have other businesses like refining, marketing (gas stations), and R&D. E&P companies in XOP do very little R&D because they rely on oilfield services companies like SLB and HAL for cutting edge drilling engineering. If you're buying XOP and XLE for energy exposure, you should consider buying a bit of OIH, as well.

I'm transferring cash and writing down my Black Friday shopping list. $HAL, $MRO, $COP, $OXY, and $SLB. It's always nice having plenty of cash, and never going all in on this market and taking advantage of sales.

Shorting SLB then

I'm trading the oil equities, not specifically crude oil. I understand that crude and oil equities don't have an exact correlation, since oil companies don't sell crude oil, they sell gas. Regardless, they are definitely overbought, specifically looking at XOM/SLB

Long: TSLA, AAPL, NFLX, UNG, AMZN

Short: XOM, SLB, HOOD, FTI

thanks for sharing this, i looked at all of these last night and i think 80% of them would of all worked with a market order -- set prices were too low to enter, perhaps as you mentioned your data was from the day before. I really liked the SLB and XOM plays you posted. I should of just ordered at open market instead of setting limits. keep this stuff coming! what else you got?

Individual stocks that I think could do well in the next months:

Lithium: PILBF, ALB, CXOXF, SGML, LAC

Industrial stocks with a relationship to clean energy or infrastructure: HDSN, WIRE, CECO, SMCI

Next 100 days, dirty energy infrastructure: SLB, HAL, ASC, TNK

Besides these, I think hardly anything has a good couple months ahead of them. If I could only buy one thing the rest of this year it would be TMV, no question.

April bought all PUTS JAN 23 WMT $115’s $2.00 sold July $3.50 MSFT $190’s $4.75 sold July $3.75 DIS $90’s $2.50 sold July $$5.50 BA 120’s $4.00 sold July $8.80 Then in July bought Googl $96 for 5.50 sold Nov $9.00 Meta $110 for $6.00 sold Nov $20 AMZN $110 August for $4.50 sold Nov for $19

Also hit Fedex 2 earnings ago but weekly calls then Lost on ADM lost on MU hit on Nike Puts twice, SLB calls where an easy one when they said the wher going to take a million barrels out of production lol. Then wrecked LCID puts I will know how much in an hour. I loaded up on 11.50, 12 and 12.50 yesterday. Next I’m going long on BA $220-$250 Jan 23 calls.

Gave you a lot of info. What do you like coming up. I think we can have a party in pharma earnings this week

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• XOM 12/16 110P for $3.15 or less
• SLB 12/16 52.5P for $1.95 or less
• IBM 12/16 135P for $2.45 or less
• SHEL 12/16 55P for $1.50 or less
• AUY 12/16 5P for $0.25 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• GLD 12/16 159P for $2.95 or less
• GOLD 12/16 15P for $0.60 or less
• JD 12/16 45P for $3.80 or less
• CLF 12/16 13 for $0.65 or less
• DAL 12/16 33P for $1.50 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)

Let’s go PUTS on LCID and DIS and calls on SLB OXY and HAL

Yup. I’m buying at the open calls Nov11 $80 and SLB $56’s

And for the record I think SLB will break 60 in the next 30days. Market is going to rally after the election results so there’s a lot of things that have nothing to do with the companies that are going to make the market rally

Yesterday about midday. The SLB still have room but the OXY reports tonight and will go further. Look for your spot the big money may level it out during the day but try to get in 10-15 minutes after the opening.

Bought calls on SLB and OXY already doubled up and they should run after the closing

Long term, oil companies are still facing some challenges like increased competition from renewables. So OFS like SLB, while a great stock short term, I wouldn't bet on it long term. Actually if OFS stocks start going up, that could be a leading indicator of increasing production, so it wouldn't actually be that good for oil prices in general and for upstream E&Ps. Long term, I Would only hold the best in the space, as the smaller ones have too much risk of going out of business if we successfully reduce or cap oil demand. Like CVX (integrated), EPD (midstream), MPC (refiner).

Tickers of Interest - TL;DR

Gamma Max Cross

• UAL 12/16 42P for $2.25 or less
• SLB 12/16 52.5P for $2.65 or less
• TELL 12/16 2.5P for $0.15 or less
• GE 12/16 80P for $2.95 or less
• RF 12/16 22P for $0.55 or less

Delta Neutral Cross

• GDX 12/16 25P for $1.35 or less
• DIA 12/16 325C for $8.55 or less
• V 12/16 200C for $6.30 or less
• XLP 12/16 72C for $1.70 or less
• FEZ 12/16 36C for $0.80 or less

Trading Thesis - Why These Crayons Taste Better

Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.

This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.

For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.

It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.

The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.

Notes - Something to give you a new wrinkle

• If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Something changed between the time these plays were generated and market open.
• Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
• I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
• The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.

FAQ - Because others have already asked.

• These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
  • No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
• Are you entering all these plays?
  • No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
• You mentioned a new play on the same ticker in the past. What does that mean?
  • The new play should replace the old play. The old play is likely now invalid and if you haven't entered in, don't chase the price. Remember that a new day's worth of data has been produced and the newer play reflects that data, the older play does not.
• Where are the crayons? I only see words.
  • Click the links above.
• Have you back-tested this?
  • Yes. Results show a moderate Sharpe Ratio (1.7), with an expected win rate of 63% of trades (7% margin of error)
• What is the historical performance?
  • The realized Sharpe Ratio is 1.85 with a 67% win rate. Based on the trade performance so far, there is a 95% chance the expected win rate will be between 49% and 72%. (Stats as of 2022-10-28)

I know this is wsb but memes aside, max out your I-bonds and then invest as much as you want in t-bills and you’ll be good in the short term.

Long term? Who the fuck knows. I’m still holding Slb stock that hasn’t reached the value I bought it at for 10 years ago.

SLB rebranded green movement

Made some money on $SLB this past week..looking at getting back in

>I think that $SLB, $PFE, and $GM are all good call options to consider this week. I also like $CSCO as a potential option.

let me put it this way. Whatever ORTEX says (and anyone else besides the exchanges) is only, and nothing more, than whatever ORTEX has estimated based on their own secret sauce of estimating.

Real, actual, official data come out from the official sources (e.g. NASDAQ or other exchanges) every two weeks. Some publish it for free, some you got to pay. There is no reason to go anywhere else for some 'estimated' or 'real-time' short interest (that does not exist, it's made up).

If you don't believe the official data, why would you believe what someone else says?

If you want a real time short interest proxy (not an estimate, other official data you can use to make good assumptions), go to your broker and see which option allows you to see the 'borrow rate'. For instance, in IBKR if you right click a stock on your watchlist and select SLB rates you will see how many shares IBKR has available to lend to you, and what borrow fee they will charge you. Of course, that's only IBKR, not the whole market, but given they are one of the big players it's reasonable to assume the rates and lending availability will be within a range of what they are reporting. You can use that as a proxy of whether short interest is going up or down on a daily basis.

Don't let those who prey on reddit imbeciles and their biases swindle you. There's a reason why some 'entities' keep prowling the meme subreddits and 'reporting' whatever will sooth the ears of the bagholders.

Do I get SLB?

SLB