Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTSMNYSE
This leaked audio of Chinese officials apparently discussing the invasion of Taiwan is absolutely horrifying. Set aside the people of Taiwan for a moment, who would be killed and enslaved.
Imagine if TSM suddenly became a Chinese hostage. All the advanced semiconductors now the exclusive property of the CCP. The technology engine of the world now the exclusive property of one malignant entity.
That would be a good day to have puts.
Depends on what I look at. If I look at my personal portfolio that was heavily invested in tech (PYPL/AAPL/GOOG/FB/AMD/TSM/etc) I'm around -55%
And who is going to manufacture these chips? TSM and Samsung to be sure, but I'm betting on old glory, Chipzilla. It's a matter of national security.
Ban Bet Created: /u/jinxcaitlyn bet TSM goes from 90.75 to 100.0 before 2022-06-23 16:42:46.486755-04:00
NVDA is also one of the most overpriced semiconductors out there. Look at the PE ratios of AMD, MU, for instance, or TSM
You have $10k to invest in one single stock and you cannot sell it for 10 years. What’s your play? I’d love to say I’m mature enough for an ETF but ew. Mines probably TSM? Or maybe a blue chip like AAPL.
Any recommendations for a boring, stable dividend company to add to my roth 401k?
Adding MKL to my monthly traditional 401k buys. That'll make 6 positions there. I'm neurotic though so I need 6 in my roth 401k as well. I already own SHW, MPW, JPM, TROW, BIPC, PEP, O, MMM, PLD, HD, COST, AMT, F, IIPR, SBUX, SBNY, and TSM.
Intel is trading at mid-2017 prices. That's unheard of for its industry. I've seen a number of articles and posts (FWIW) about how they are making moves to better compete with AMD, NVIDIA, and TSM and these moves could prove to be a catalyst for a rebound.
Intel as a long term play could payoff immensely which is weird saying since they've been around so long. After the covid supply issues the US and Europe are heavily investing to have more local chip makers as most of them are made in Asia. Intel is pushing to take on that demand with heavy investments into new fabs. They are in the foundry business now and want to make other people's chips much like how TSM operates. There will be a strong push from both US and Europe to be more diversified and to have non Asia makers as its a national security concern.
>In 2022 & beyond, the world is going to run on chips
And TSM. The biz is good, guidance is great and the stock is holding their ground!
Point where I said I "strongly believe" in the stock, dingus? Im scanning the semi conductor sector recently and TSM, AMD performed great while giving out somewhat decent guidance, NVDA's came out lower. So besides useless projecting, are you pretending to be jaded or intentionally playing contrarian olympics cause you aren't succeeding in either.
I've only recent started using Google finance to track my portfolio...its really quite good haha
I'm a big confused by your portfolio. My first thought is how old are you? If you're young you could increase the exposure to risky assets, emerging markets to hopefully increase gains. if you're older focus more on retail/bonds/all market etfs ect. You could have a 30 30 40 split, so say 30 in voo/world/emerging/biotech/consumer staples ETF etc, then 30 in individual stocks like NE, KO, JNJ, google, amazon what ever solid, cash generating, free cash flow business, then 30% in riskier assets (baba, small biotechs, nanostring, pltr, stne, maybe 5-10 into crypto, BTC, ETH, DOT, ADA ect).
Are you setting it up for a long term 30+ year portfolio or a shorter 5 year. As they require different portfolio structures...for example semiconductors (TSM, ASML) tend to be 3 year cyclical.
Are you DCA over the next year, as its likely to be heading into a recession...so most sectors and stocks are going down from here....so do you want to take the risk and buy heavy hit sectors (like tech, NASDAQ) which have more room to rebound or do a safer play with consumer defensive (wallmart, dollar tree, automotive-ORLY), to grow slightly...hoping to beat inflation. If you're American, maybe invest in I-bonds at 9% annual return, if you're British maybe have premium bonds for safety, or inflation linked gilds.
Personally I have 30% of my money currently in a portfolio, the rest is in bonds/cash. I'm dollar cost averaging into my positions over the next 12months, to end with 50% in the portfolio and 50% in bonds (unless any amazing dips accure) by June next year.
I have exposure to 8%( baba, pypl, FB, amazon, google, boohoo), 5% ( nanosting, sofi, citibank, wallmart, stne, pltr), then voo, xbi, xbp, and others. This is a small example as I have many more stocks and different portolfios and investments.
Lots to think about.
Pleasantly surprised to see TSM barely down AH after the NVDA ER. That Q2 outlook impacts the entire chip sector.
7/15 (day after ER) $80p are $1.68, $75p are $0.97 on TSM currently trading at $89.30
> Far dated TSM puts are cheap
Why this wasn’t the play over NVDA is beyond me. Cheaper options & much bigger implications from NVDA’s earning outlook for Q2.
> Anyone else buy AMD puts right before close?
If I could have afforded to, I’d of skipped the expensive NVDA options and just bought puts on TSM.
No, but if TSM and LMT merged we would get Gundams.
NVIDIA / AMD / TSM MERGE AND WE GET HENTAI ROBOTS
Yeah I meant that within each geographic region, it’s split 50/50 between Dimensional’s respective core 2 fund and SCV. TSM is total stock market (VTI, VEA, VWO)
I see and within the 25% are they equally distributed? And what's TSM?
I mean, from semis MRVL (earnings in 2 days. Maybe a bit pricey, but astonishing growth), AMD (actually, if you look at 5 years projected growth - it's 50% cheaper than Intel). TSM (great value, but China factor, I guess). And above all, I still cannot figure out MU phenomena, and why it's still below 100. I get it, small margins, but since it's duopoly, it shouldn't weight it down.
How many shares of tsm is needed to hook up with a Taiwanese IG model? Asking for a fren
my portfolio has undergone a few changes since then.
I basically moved to a 50/25/25 allocation across the US, ex-US developed and EM, and within each, I split it 50/50 between the TSM indexes (VTI, VEA, VWO) and my SCV funds. Recently I’ve replaced VTI, VEA and VWO with DFAC, DFIC and DFEM (which are broad market indices that weigh value and smaller companies more than larger and growth companies).
My reasoning is simple - I’ve done a lot of research into the factor story, and I buy that by taking on additional risk, my expected returns should increase.
During the .com bust, I was 100% equities (Vanguard Total Stock Market) and just kept plowing money into that fund. I had no 401(k) available. During the GFC, I was still 100% equities (TSM) in my Roth and 100% S&P500 in my 401(k). I was more worried about losing my job during the GFC than about how poorly my investments were doing. I knew the markets would eventually come back. People around me who were losing their jobs, though, were having a tough time finding a new one.
I didn't change my AA until forced retirement in 2013. I moved to 65/30/5 then. I wouldn't say I'm hyper wealthy from my activities, but I do have enough to have a comfortable life.
Holy hell you can't be dumb enough to think that Intel can be a process leader while simultaneously paying their competitor TSMC huge amount of money to make their upcoming products. Get back to me in a couple years when Apple or Qualcomm make any leading products on Intel vs TSMC. Apart from being inferior silicon Intel has more expensive fab costs than TSM which is why so little silicon is made in the US in the first place...
Process leader? You understand Intel chips are currently faster than anything coming from TSM/AMD for general computing right?
You also understand TSM and Intel measure die size differently and intel cores have more density even given the nanometer disparity. Simply comparing die size doesn’t hold up
So given that I would love to know what makes someone a process leader?
Nope. Just read the data. Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published extensive on the value premium (of course it has been around since before Ben Graham in the 1930's). What most call "value" is thinking they can tease out valuations and say, "hey this is undervalued due to x, y, z" that is quite vague and hard to test.
Fama/ French 3F model of definition of value which is based on book/ price ratio and that is it (1/3, 1/3. 1/3). It does not use all these other metrics folks love to go on and on about. Even using Fama-French definition of value there are many long stretches 10-20 years value underperforms and some don't accept that either. You can read the excellent presentation of Jack Bogle "Tell Tale Chart" at a Morningstar conference about a decade+ ago talking about it. Heck, Lussier book talks about the premium is actually just removing LCG from the TSM and has nothing to do with value or small premiums.
What most "value" investors are referring to is NOT a value premium (which is already argued despite FF3F model publication), but the ability to tease out metrics and as I call it "read the tea leaves better then the next guy". If you are the latter great. You do you. But the data does not support there is a specific set of valuations that can be used to predict future stock returns. Thus you are just reading the tea leaves better then the next guy. Just like that there are folks who read it worse. If there is PEER review study let me know as I am happy to be proven wrong, but I don't know any.
That should be rather common sense. There are billion dollar funds that have folks with a double masters in math from MIT (like one of my buddies) who sit and write algos. 24/7 using every iteration of data available on computers that are worth more then your house for the last 30+ years. They have not found any predictive value either that is consistent. Of course, every time I write this folks say, "well I am the exception". My answer is great for you. Then why don't you put your thesis down, print out your transaction history, and submit it to a fund manager and start making some REAL money. No one has done it yet... wonder why?? Do the same folks who claim to beat the market just not want to make MILLION in portfolio manager fees?
That’s true but at this point is it not clear if anyone can compete any time soon. Intel attempted to compete and fell way behind TSM, who bought ASML’s latest machines. Intel has since given up and will be purchasing the latest ASML machines.
Idiots downvoting .
>Intel's 12th Gen was basically a half ass attempt and their chips are outperforming AMD's.
Exactly - AMD is rightfully basking in the limelight right now due to their innovation with the Zen series, but INTC is catching up performance/price-wise and investing heavily in their own fabs while keeping partnerships (TSM) open. AMD will continue to be dependent on TSM and the incoming Taiwan/China conflict and US push for domestic silicon fabrication won't do them any favors. Curious how the new TSM fab in AZ will work out.
>Also, the video card space was so distorted and abnormal that AMD sold out video cards that nobody wanted for 2+ years as fast as they could make them.
100% this - even in early 2021 at the heigh of the GPU mining craze when people were lining up for 12hrs+ at Microcenter, NVDA cards would sell out immediately and the 68/900XTs would stay on the shelves for hours, sometimes days.
I've been an AMD bull since the socket 939 days, but am a lot more interested in building my INTC position (PE <7, wow) right now.
>level 1Sir1000000 · 3 mo. agoIf you believe China will invade Taiwan and TSM is forced from producing for some time then you should stay away from ALL tech stocks. Intel produces chips, but they also buy and resell the more spendy CPUs from TSM.
This post needs to be fact-checked. If you believe INTC buys a lot of chips from TSMC - you are dreaming. INTC and everyone buys a loyt of nat.materials from CHina, but instead the important question is - which and how-much of these materials cannot be re-sourced (answer=few). The amount of ra
I’m in the process of building my portfolios but here’s what I’ve come up with thus far.
Rollover IRA 50% VTI 10% SCHD 10% PARA 10% GOOGL 10% O 5% BYND 5% TSM
Roth IRA 20% APPL 15% MSFT 15% CRM 10% MMM 10% ED 10% JPM 10% AMZN 5% CVX 5% PII
Genuine question: Why do people like COST that much when there are companies (GOOGL,TSM,MSFT,..) with lower PE-ratio's, more growth, more cashflow than COST?
If anything it still seems quite a bit overpriced no? I know nothing about COST so that's why i am asking! Thanks
AMZN, MSFT, QCOM, and TSM. Tech might be down, but these will be the first to rise.
Jack Bogle also advised against international investing, wasn't particularly happy with the construction of BND, timed the markets on at least one occasion, promoted Vanguard's own actively managed funds (Wellington and Wellesley, including recommending them, and not VOO/VTI, to a college endowment fund, plus 5% gold), and admitted in a speech that SCV and LCB take turns out-performing, which they do.
Bogle was flexible in his thinking.
The problem is that an investor can't know which peak and trough period their own investing lifetime will find them in, so tilting one way or another can end up not working out for them, and in any event, Bogle favored simplicity and guidelines that would protect investors against behavioral mistakes.
I'd also add that there is no evidence - which is what investing should be based on - that factor-tilting, especially SCV, under-performs the TSM over long periods of time.
There will always be Bogleheads who follow the 2/3-fund approach, but the underlying principle is simplicity, keeping costs and portfolio churn down (there are cheaper SCV funds than AVUV and AVDV, like VIOV and VSS), and having a plan that you can stick to, and that can still be accomplished with factor-tilting. It is a matter of whether the investor understands what they are doing, and why, and that it fits with their investment goals and timeline, and is part of a plan that they can stick to.
Hey Retard. Go into the daily thread from last night. TGT, TSM, WMT & NVDA were all heavily discussed.
If you ain’t gonna come hang with us outside before the casino opens, don’t get pissed when we use the best slot machines.
UVXY ITM calls dated for August. Or TSM puts dated for August, something fucked is going down over there
If anything it's bullish for TSM and INTC, TSM fabricates Apple's chips and any inhouse designs are likely to be a similar model. Unlikely that Apple oir any other big tech would start fabbing their own chips due to high capex required.
Correct. TSM is mainly fab. They make chips. This new era of Nvidia, Apple, and Google making their own chip is really bullish for TSM and bearish on Intel
Doesnt tsm still make those chips though? Design vs fab is what AMD/TSM relationship is too
As more companies opt for their owned designed chips - Apple and Microsoft come top of mind - does this have any negative impacts on TSM in the long run?
VOO: 45% VXUS: 5% VB: 5% AAPL: 10% AMD: 10% TGT: 10% MSFT: 5% DIS: 5% TSM: 3% PLTR: 1% CRSR: 1%
> Bro the whole fucking semiconductor sector has been insane this week. Even when the market took a shit it was up.
The puts activity on TSM for June got me thinking a lot this afternoon because if China ever invade Taiwan, we’d likely see TSM ticker impacted before the world news even found out.
Entire global economy would be negatively impacted by that action before SKY news could even report on the act itself.
> I have some AMD 94p that expire Friday? Odds that I’m fucked?
Speaking of kinda the same shit, what was with that crazy options activity on TSM and NVDA today?
TSM had a crazy amount of calls & puts for the same June 17 exp.
Is it safer to simply close my eyes, hold my stocks, and only check back when we’ve emerged from this bear market/potential recession?
Or sell most/all of my shares, hold the cash, and wait for a (potential) bigger drop to jump on?
I’m currently in NVDA, AMD, TSM, MSFT, AAPL, and VTI. Currently still up in NVDA (16%), AMD (52%), and AAPL (17%), but down in the rest (bought close to the peak right before everything shifted RIP)
without TSM, there is no AMD. the reason TSM's been getting fucked lately though is due to taiwan fears (chinese aggression)
TSM lagging a lot when compared to AMD. TSM will obviously benefit from projected AMD growth alongside their other semi contracts. Attractive forward PE too. Considering buying TSM 110 August calls. Anyone else thinking along the same line?
TSM is well underbought if anything
Semiconductor stocks that aren't over hyped/overbought like NVDA, AMD, TSM? Go....
China has been saying that for decades, but has made negative progress on actually possessing Taiwan. I highly doubt ss Chinese invasion of Taiwan is within the realm of possibility, but if they do, it'll be the end of the ccp.
In the case of a Chinese invasion, as opposed to shorting tsm and spy, I believe there's greater profit to be made by shorting key Chinese companies.
Well my fucking warehouse is churning almost 4x the transaction volume everyday, and TSM/Samsung's orders are getting fulfilled in bulk.
They are finally getting the equipments required to expand production capacity.
What’s TSM gunna do tomorrow?Below $85???
Tsm uppies before big crash lol
So, I was messing around on finviz, searched:
Above 2m average volume Low pe (sub15) Low forward pe (sub 15) High EPS growth next 5 years (25%+)
Mostly it’s just banks and insurance companies, but:
Micron (MU) came up.
Intrigued me, but I don’t know enough about semis
I’ve always been told TSM is a solid play, and obviously AMD and NVDA have a heavy following.
Any thoughts on which of these is best? Why is MU so “under valued”?
Thinking of making my own mini semi etf consisting of just like 5 companies
I got a TSM and hood outs for frifay
How do you know when a company will take a greater bite out of a particular market or region (i.e. TSM factory shuts down, would it be safe to assume the comp would be AMD? Lastly how do you measure the obvious fact like logistics, relationships with outside suppliers aka favoritism)
I'd replace GM with TM. And would add semiconductor stock like TSM.
Lmao how? Tf you get that, did they not just see how fucked it was for Russia to walk right next door? It would have to take the largest amphibious assault in human history for China to invade Taiwan, just for Taiwan to burn tsm to the ground if they were successful. It’s not happening lol
Yes I agree, TSM is the top of the players.
Yes I agree and also TSM is a great
- TSM - 0.40 EV/EBITDA (semiconductors are typically at ~20)
- GOOGL - 13.63 EV/EBITDA (internet software are typically at ~23)
- PFE - 8.74 EV/EBITDA (pharma is usually 14).
Anyone got an explanation on why TSM in particular is trading at such a discount given that there's a semiconductor shortage, they're expanding in America, and everything in the future is going to need a chip?
8/19 TSM puts for this reason
The stock market is one big psychological battle against yourself. I'm looking at PINS, Twilio, TDOC (careful with this one after their last report), TSM, Tilray (you think this won't be trading at 2x at some point in the next five years??), CRM, SHOP if it keeps dropping, might even have to look into CROX. Just be extremely patient and pick your spots, adding after consecutive big red days. Saying that to remind myself as much as anything.
Please elaborate. I'd prefer to hear the bear case. It could be another Intel, where they lose on all fronts to more specialized companies (TSM, AMD).
3x APP 5/20 35p
7x TSM 8/19 65p
About 50 shares of UVXY, 17.34 avg.
Some other randos but those are my largest plays. It ain't much but I'm trying
I see where you are coming from. I think AMD is way less dependent on mining than nvidia. More diversified than nvda.
Problem is only that tsm political risk. Otherwise AMD is bullet proof.
If SPY could just take TSM and AppLovin with it to the depths of hell, that'd be great
Don't think of it as certain outcomes being priced in. Think about it as expectations and chances/risk of certain events being priced in.
Take TSM. It trades at a bit of a premium because of concerns regarding china - so some risk of China invading Taiwan, for example, is priced in. If that scenario came true, however, the stock would of course drop A LOT more.
You don't have doomsday priced in. But you have uncertainty and some downward risk priced in.
Presuming you know what you are doing in terms of execution and won't just blindly buy stocks when they are trading with a high P/E, here are some ideas.
Positions in brackets should be smaller than your primary holding. I personally would be focused in TSLA, oil, computing, SAAS, and internet retail for alpha with other positions for diversification.
TSLA (F) (LCID) (RIVN)
AMZN (BABA) AAPL MSFT GOOG (FB) NVDA (AMD) (TSM)
ADBE ABNB DIS SPOT TSP (EMBK)
COST DLTR TGT WMT HD (LOW) CVS WBA
BA LMT NOC RTX
LUV AAL DAL UAL
JPM (GS) (BAC)
BRK.B AXP MA (V) PYPL
GIS (K) (KHC) MCD SBUX KO PG NKE (LEVI) (RL)
(CAT) (HON) (MMM) DE GE
TSM is headed to $50 tbh
Hell yes! I sold my 392 for $925 and it peaked at about 1000 for the morning dump, rolled the monies into TSM puts for this summer and bought some more UVXY shares. Good luck with your trades!
AMD gets 100% of their supply from TSM....
Buying individual stocks (still DCA) is more volatile, with larger swings up and down. But, if you find a company that has a bit more potential (or might go up faster than the rest of the index), it definitely pays off. In this current down trend, if you picked 1 or a few stocks to dollar cost into every month, like QCOM, AMZN, MSFT, or TSM, I think you could do very well.
I like TSM as well, but I don’t think it has to be one or the other in this case. Nvidia omniverse is going to be essential for manufacturing in the future.. Companies that can simulate out production changes thousands of times before actually implementing them will save huge amounts in capex. BMW is already doing this. Eventually it will get to the point where companies not using it won’t be able to compete.
TSM opening plant in US of A and up to 6 more fabs in the plans https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-arizona-chip-factory-2021-06-01/
TSM is one of my favorite companies but they are still a little expensive for my tastes before even considering the Chinese invasion geopolitical risk.
I dunno if I buy into NVDIA running shit.
TSM puts far more into R&D from my view and they are 100% testing some stuff in NZ and at home that would make your head spin tech wise.
So as an AMD and TSM bagholder, here is what i dont get.
The whole world is seeing how fucked russia is because they decided to invade ukraine. How does that translate to people thinking its now MORE likely for china to invade taiwan? If you ask me, it will never happen. China isnt blind, they too see how fucked russia is and font want to be in that same spot.
You specifically mentioned lunch:
> I think Nvda/Goog/Aapl/Amd + Brcm/TSM have been eating their lunch for quite some time and poaching like mad.
But, yes, pretending Intel lacks competency is similarly ignorant of the underlying tech.
Blocking you now. Bye.
Besides hardware/chip manufacturers like INTC, AMD, TSM, etc, what tech names would you even buy at this point?
In uarch or manufacturing? I think in terms of design and uarch they haven't been among the best for quite a few years and manufacturing wise they're not doing much better. I think Nvda/Goog/Aapl/Amd + Brcm/TSM have been eating their lunch for quite some time and poaching like mad.
there are other names out there, you know, around that price point with hefty profits and compelling growth stories: AMD, ONTO, TSM, to name a few.
I own shares of $NVDA, $QCOM, $AMD, and $TSM as well.
Also... $SE is based in Singapore, not China. But in comfortable with the China risk. I'm heavy in emerging markets as it is, and also own $JD and $TCEHY.
Why don't you like $SQ?
Amzn, aapl, intc, msft, qcom, tm, tsm
Fuck it I’ll go soft bull and roll all my tech at -40% into TSM. Shit will still drill but at least PE is below 30 and they make money. I’m here to take L’s but more smartly. I’ve already completely ruined my net worth.