Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTSMNYSE
AVUS/AVDE/AVEM combo is better than TSM+SCV unless you want to tile more than 25%.
I'm not gonna long that stock, way better opportunities out there.
AMAT or TSM seem better all around. Also AMD for a higher risk higher growth kind of play.
I don't think BABA and TSM have equal Chinese uncertainty. BABA does, TSM is protected by the world because chips are so necessary for the world. BABA isn't an absolute necessity for the world
I agree with the crypto comment but DCs, fabs, AI are on 5 to 10 year timescales. They're not going to shutdown or cancel for recessions which normally show up every 7 to 10 years.
I have a tiny position in tsm, their technology leadership is amazing and their moat is literally protecting an island.
Anyone who has the cash but is not buying up shares of companies like GOOGL, AMZN, or TSM is out of their minds in my opinion. I'm not saying go all in, as I see the pull back continuing for the rest of the year, but dca into anything you can.
Not everything is nosediving. MCD for example is almost flat and much higher than March lows.
Why a fast food restaurant (or real estate company since they make the majority of their profits from renting their shops to franchisees) can stand better than TSM?
You will tell me that people need to eat, but have you seen the queues outside Apple shops waiting to buy 14? Have you seen the waiting list for Tesla's?
People indeed have to eat but are going like crazy behind all new technology items such as phones laptops and EVs.
Someone would expect that since everything had semiconductors inside, TSM would have better performance this year.
The book value for TSM is $480 per share. So the current share price of $73 is like buy $480 for $73 (making no provision for its annual earning growth of 24 % -crazy). The current discount for Chinese uncertainty is very large (as it is with BABA). I would not hold it against anyone to buy TSM at these levels but for me it’s just an unnecessary risk so I’m just sticking with S&P 500 components- plenty of growth and discounted prices on the way. (I’m still a bag holder for BABA which is selling $383 of book value per share for $79 - if I wasn’t already a bag holder I’d probably decline though on the basis of Chinese uncertainty).
The whole market is getting a new baseline. TSM wasn’t re-basedlined the first time with SW around so it’s getting re-baselined now.
How much of TSM was bought on leverage last year? People are deleveraging.
I heard Jamie Dimon, I think, say something like “When interest rates rise, stocks return to their rightful owners.”
If you were dabbling in margin, even like 5%, and your stocks have tanked 10, 20, 40, 50%, you need to raise cash
I mean look at the overall market. Almost everything is taking a nosedive, not just TSM.
Many believe that this is just the beginning so buckle up
I think there are some tech or tech adjacent stocks. Semiconductors have taken a big hit, and while chip designers like AMD and Nvidia are still expensive, others in the general sector are at reasonable prices. Personally I like anything related to foundries. Intel has market share fears which, imo, are overblown. Intel is also one of the only big names that owns foundries, so if something happens to TSM (even if it’s not China invasion, an earthquake can be detrimental) one of the only other big players at scale is Intel. And then you can go to the guys who sell the shovels. AMAT and ASML are going to expand in proportion to chip demand, which isn’t slowing down at any point in the next several decades.
"We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of NT 1.4 trillion"
Market cap of 400B, undervalued
TSM trading flat/lower? Thanks for the info brother
If you're bullish on apple and tech in general, it'd make sense to be long term bullish on tsm. I think they'd be one of the last to see earnings deteriorate given their pricing power.
Hurt my soul to see those TSM calls lol
Maybe you didn't see his TSM call @ $110
Nah I meant yahoo misquoted it as up 145% after hours I think the same thing happened with tsm
TSM calls a man of culture I see
NVDA is overplaying the TSM increases. Foundry costs are just one component of costs to produce a widget (NVDA labor, materials, facilities, executive comp, etc), and there is no indication those other costs all increased 30%. Even if they did, NVDA could also change its margin. But retailers love blaming a straw man for price increases.
$TSM in 2020 made sense but felt so wrong. Like I'd accidentally robbed a bank.
Intc is shrinking in revenue and profitability so of course their PE is less than Amd who is growing both. The dividend you mentioned is the anchor around Intc neck. The can't stop paying it or everyone dumps their stock, but by paying it they aren't investing enough in R&D and Fabs.
The Fabs that Intc is building in the US won't make any difference until at least 2025 and TSM who manufactory for AMD is building a fab in AZ so that advantage is nothing.
Even if Intc is in line for Asml next generation equipment they are years from having it installed and a fab running on it. I honestly don't see how they can catch up to TSM who also buys all their equipment from Asml and probably order it before Intc
I think Ford may be a good choice given it’s ridiculously low P/E. I’m not gonna say that it will be seeing $20 again anytime soon but ~$14 is very reasonable.
Pfizer is another. Low P/E, shitloads in revenue (just signed a deal with the U.S. Army for $4 billion which might not hit the books until 2023), $30 billion in cash, new acquisitions for future growth, etc. Already seeing some recovery. Biggest problem with PFE is the super high float.
TSM - revenue continues to grow, basically a monopoly in Taiwan, plus they supply other companies like AMD and NVDA. No, China isn’t going to invade Taiwan, at least not for years especially now that they know Russia isn’t reliable for military assistance. Also has piles of cash. IMO, TSMC is the backbone of much of the semiconductor industry. Another company with a high float… i did just read an article from March 2020 that said TSM was a no brainer buy and it was at like $130.
Intel - 2 words: CHIPS Act. 2 more words: P/E ratio = 6. Fucking 6. I wouldn’t expect this to skyrocket but it seems impossible for it to not see another few dollars at least in the near future.
These are some of the plays I’m making with near the money Call options with exp dates ranging from Jan 2023 - Jan 2024. I’ve been losing money the last couple days on them but there is still plenty of time and premium to see a really nice return with minimal gains, assuming it doesn’t take a year to get there which I REALLY do not think will be the case.
CHIPS act helping to fund new fabs. This puts them back in the race against TSM. U.S government will make sure INTC succeeds to secure domestic chip production. Mobileye IPO is a nice cherry on top to make INTC some good money. They have solid fcf to support their trajectory.
Man did stocks really perform that well? I thought 1966 to 1980's were a bad time for anyone drawing down? I checked the cagr for TSM and it's only 0.8% real return, it's still positive but someone drawing down will have a bad time. But small cap value absolutely crushed, with a cagr of 17% from 1972 to 1982.
Their cost per unit is coming way down.. and a good portion of the stock price isn’t about the cars it’s about the self driving tech. I’m not a buyer at these prices either but if there’s a meaningful dip I’m seriously going to wish I didn’t lose all my money on TSM calls and dream I had some left for Tesla shares
Tsm or mayb intl forsure. But can you trust a fab company that can't fab anything on time?
I usually allocate between the funds with 3 lowest ER, typically TSM, TBM and Int'l.
If that's too hard, then go with 2045 TDF.
Hahahaha. Now I know you have no idea what you’re talking about with regards to AMD or the chip industry at large. Spinning off GF saved AMD from bankruptcy and allowed them to be in the position they’re currently in. The second GF said they weren’t going to compete beyond 12nm+ and released AMD from it’s obligation to purchase the majority of their chips from them and allowed them to move their business over to TSM is what has catapulted AMD chips into the lead in almost every metric from PC to datacenter chips. About all INTC has left is mobile chips, and even that moat is drying fast.
I’m not sure how you’re under any impression the likes of AAPL, NVDA and the other big players are going to just move away from TSM in favor of antiquated INTC chip making. That’s just straight up copium. It ain’t happening. You said so yourself, INTC went with their tail between their legs to TSM because they CAN’T make the bleeding edge chips needed to stay competitive.
INTC has been talking about revamping their fabs with the latest and greatest in terms of lithography since Brian Krzanich. They may be starting to, but they’re 5 years late. Their “war chest” is dwindling. Their margins are under pressure and their legacy business will only carry them so far. Go ahead and latch on to that boomer stock and hold it close. Enjoy losing money.
Yep. Nvidia, TSM, ASML
Can't go wrong.
Yes but cash reserves dont push valuation very much. In fact its usually discounted. Also note the author of this thread wants a 1 year hold. He will need the money for college expenses from the sound of it.
In regards to QQQ companies. Im not saying they will go out of business, what im saying is the fundamentals seem to point to less growth. Slower growth = lower valuation. Doesnt matter how much cash you have. Further, deployment of cash is very hard to predict and the results take a long time to materialize. Right now we are seeing record buybacks again.
The other issue is current market valuations are not cheap. I like to use the S&P PE as a general valuation barometer due to long history. Its running at about 19-20 PE with earning growth slowing. Though this isnt outrageous like last year, its definitely on the high side of historic averages. Granted macro dictates that this PE should climb as more people participate in the market but still, 20 is on the high side of the band. In other words, there is still a good chance for valuations to flatten or even decline market wide. Id say its 50/50 regardless of inflation.
In the end you might be right. If 50/50 is believable, its still 50/50. It can go either way. I personally think the next decade will be dominated by energy tech (batteries and renewable efficiency upgrades) and computing will be slim picking. The only computing companies I like are Amazon (they should be credited with the last 10 years of computing growth for the whole sector), TSM, ASML, & QCOM because we will need an absurd amount of cheap chips and communication chips for cars and other energy devices. Everyone else, im in wait and see mode.
Amazon, MSFT, RBC, Manulife, Royal Caribean, TSM
WEED, ASTF, CCO, SBSW
All my investments are long term. At least that's the plan. Among my highest convictions are MSFT and TSLA which I have owned for many years. But more recent ones are U, TSM and GOOGL.
I’m bearish on all stocks right now, not just chip stocks. I do hold a small amount still like TSM. TSM has a large plant in Phoenix AZ that’s expanding. I actually sold some stocks recently in anticipation of The Fed stuff this week and hope to buy some stocks at low prices again. I have been surprised to see chip stocks not skyrocket like I had hoped with the new bill that passed. I’m guessing it’s too early to see that. I also don’t believe China will invade Taiwan. Xi Jinping just lectured Russia publicly on how they should be promoting peace, not destroying it. How stupid would China’s government look if they invaded Taiwan now?
You’re most welcome. Yea I totally agree, the market is completely out of wack. Has been for a while. Nothing makes sense nominally nor logically. Inflation was somehow deemed “transitory”, and the definition of a “recession” is apparently subjective.
Funny enough I actually just left Costco. I wanted to stock up on razors and other bulk no perishables seeing as how I’ll always need them and might as well beat inflation to the punch. Also I put the monthly Costco sales report on my personal extended watchlist, along with $TSM monthly reports and Chinese automakers monthly deliveries. But the volatility is usually pretty low so I don’t add it to the watchlists I publish publicly. But they’re all good barometers for consumer spending, especially over CPI in my humble opinion.
Thanks so much for contributing to the due diligence. Save a lil profits for the rest of us this week would ya? Lol cheers 🍻
It's so weird, I'm here to get rich not have blind loyalty to one ticket. I don't care at all about these companies aside from how I can make money off them.
I guess its like the sports team mentality that sucks in these cultists, and im not big on team sports either.
They went from yelling "USA" or "TSM" to GME - but instead of cheering for one game, they decided to invest their life savings and retirement into a meme.
Big quake in Taiwan, a lot of property damage, few TSM fabs damaged too. Will be super interesting to see how INTC will move on Monday based on this.
Roth ira: 60% VTSAX, 25% VVIAX, 15% VTIAX
401k largely equivalent
Brokerage: 10% $TSM, 10% $UAN, 12% $XOM, 5% $COP, 5% $CTVA, 5% $BG, 8% $ADM, 5% $WEAT, 10% $COST, 10% $OLN, 20% $VTI (Rough approximate)
I doubt they’d use nukes. It would ruin the land beyond use. Full army deployment is likley to first take precedent. Taiwan is where the dice will truly roll. CIA already wanting that China is looking for a forceful invasion. Sorta like when they warned Russia. I’ll just wait until CIA says “China decided to invade” then I’ll go full short on TSM
TSM will do what US will say
TSM is building manufacturing in US
Intel isn't struggling in the short term. They have been struggling for multiple CPU generations.
Intel used to led the world in manufacturing capability - adopting new process tech, optimizing it for yield. They paired this with great architectures.
TSM out-manufactures them. AMD is out-designing them.
Intel bulls want to talk about the foundry business they are establishing. What exactly is the sales pitch to Nvidia "Hey Nvidia, its Intel, the guys that used to the lead the world in new process tech adoption. We aren't really any good at that any more, so we are giving you a ring to see if you want to come to us instead of TSM?"
If the economy goes to hell in a handbasket, and Intel has to cut the dividend, watch out.
I don't have virginia 529 but I need to manually enter the price for Vanguard 529 TSM in my Google Sheet to track my portfolio. For all other securities, I can retrieve using =GOOGLEFINANCE( ).
AMD or TSM? Why one over the other? Aside from geopolitical reasons, I like TSM.
AMD or TSM? Why you taking one over the other?
Semi conductors and base metals. QCOM, NXPI, TXN, TSM, ASML and BHP and RIO
Lol the TSM fabs in china might add a bit of exposure.
TSM has indirect exposure - they are part of the supply chain for companies like AMD and Nvidia.
TSM is great. Dominant player in semi conductors with lots of potential for more innovation and growth(they are building factories in US). 2.5% dividend and only 80/share (was $120 last year). China Taiwan conflict is a risk, but overblown.
That’s not China’s style, look at Hong Kong or Tibet. They take over the government, not launch a full scale war. Especially with TSM supplying 70% of the world semi conductors.
Lol, you think anything will be left of TSM if china invades? China wont invade because they don’t have anything to gain except a few square km.
No problem, China will likely be considered TSM "domestic sales" soon enough.
When investing in semiconductor companies look at % of revenues to different regions. China is a higher risk revenue region and the revenues should be discounted at a higher rate.
KLAC does 29%. AMAT does 36%. LRCX does 31%. ASML does 17%.
NVDA does 24% and AMD does 25% however their billing location doesn't match the end customer i.e. Chinese vendors then sell their product to other countries. I doubt more than 10% of their revenues are to China.
The company with the least China exposure is TSM with only 10%. US customers make 64% of their revenue.
SOXL 9/16 21$ calls at .01, mini yolod'd 50 of them. in case NVDA AMD and TSM squeeze on these oversold daily RSI and MACD lines. Its so overdue to go for a bull run.
Not to mention, SOXL is the 3x leverage for all chip stocks. So if NVDA AMD TSM and other big chip stocks go up, including SPY and QQQ, SOXL will crank very hard. It loves green.
Put SOXL in your "bull market", and look how much harder in cranks over QQQ SPY and even TQQQ in terms of %. Just look at it.
OP bought the dip but TSM is all out of chips.
Odd mix of stocks... You bought TSM at the peak of a market and a chip crunch... Baba when China was making noise about NYSE listings AND as china appears to be starting a slump LC at the start of a tightening cycle..
F wasn't a bad move though
LC, F, BABA, TSM still holding (no exits)
An interesting litmus test for this will be the fabs being built in the U.S. by TSM and Intel. If they can manage to run efficiently and profitably, who knows, maybe others will follow. Im not hopeful, but it would be nice to see.
it will be a while if you got into chip sector- need to have patient and wait
I have chip stocks tsm, umc and sector semiconductor fund with fidelity- yes it will rebound but not for few years, nope I will not buy intel-it's technology is behind tsm, samsung- stay with nvidia
Although I'm a fan and hold the stock, NVDA still seems a bit pricey. I just started a small position in INTC, primarily for the dividend and the hope of a nice rebound.
My fav semi stock is TSM. Bit of a slow grower but steady. Decent dividend. An all around beast of a company. I have a feeling INTC will throw in the towel and begin giving them more and more fab work in the comming years. Or maybe just partnering on certain chips.
All that said SOXX is probably the safest bet.
Yeah that's a good point.
What if they blockade the island permanently... they already did this temporarily... and then lobbed missiles over the island for full effect!.
I think that's the way they'd go about it.
I mean TSM definitley has a discount baked into it.
That’s why Pelosi went to Taiwan. They (TSM) produce most of the worlds chips and our plan is definitely to hold chy-na back. INTC gonna win there too.
Hello everyone i'm looking to create a small portion of my investment nportfolio to two sectors of the market based off Elon musk's predictions of the future demands.
Energy and semiconductors
I'm looking for stocks similar in energy such as,ENPH,NEE,NEP
What are your thoughts?
I think if it gets down into the 20's, it's being priced for a terminal decline. I think the US based fab plan is doable and necessary. So far it's on time and within scope for being competitive with TSM moving forward.
There are higher priority buys for me right now, but Intel's fabs are a wise business decision that I think will pay off. The question is how bad the design side revenue gets in the meantime and whether the div will hold up. The delays, the mistakes in design philosophy particularly on server chips, and it's poor earning showing due to PC sales going off a cliff and loss in marketshare have definitely made me cautious. Hence why I've been waiting for the past 2 years to initiate a small turnaround play.
She only went to Taiwan to make sure her investment in tsm was safe lol
You’re not worried about TSM being impacted by China/Taiwan instability?
TSM is getting 210M to change their name to TSM FTX. They didn’t get bought out by FTX. It’s a sponsorship.
1/3 1/3 1/3
- TSM. Semiconductor leader. iPhone brain.
- BRKB. Warren Buffet’s baby.
- Local power company. Everybody needs electricity, especially when those EV laws come into effect.
Lies. There are certaintly some FTX haters in LoL.
TSM ain't one, though.
lol TSM might have the name recognition of the Yankees equivalent but their reputation amongst other teams is more like the Astros or EA
I’m new to all the lore here but this is absolutely brilliant. FTX just bought the gaming organization TSM, which is kind of the most prestigious organization an e-athlete can sign to right now. Like the Yankees of e-sports.
This is a HUGE move, truly a masterful partnering.
I was responding to a comment that said this:
>USA needs domestic semiconductors
So maybe people are misreading my comment but the US certainly doesn't "need" it.
The question like always is what is the benefits vs the costs. TSMC was planning $100b in capex over the next 3 years no matter what subsidizes they received with multiple plants planned outside Taiwan. Intel had already announced plans to reup their efforts in their investment - subsidizes are definitely really nice for them - but honestly their business has to take a chance on something and were going to go all in no matter what.
So what are the benefits: well not necessarily more output (maybe some) but tons of investment was already going into the space. It does bring a high tech industry to our shores that incentivizes R&D (though Intel said they are doing a lot of R&D in Germany) and incentive for educational institutions to graduate people proficient in cutting edge technology that they can get jobs into (probably the biggest benefit). You get some good jobs out of it.
What are the cons: well opportunity cost or just not adding to the deficit for projects that won't impact short-term inflation because the projects take too long to impact current output for years.
My comment comes off as a bit over negative. I'm not super negative on this but also the investment didn't seem necessary it was happening anyways and possibly in the US without subsidy. For example, TSM had already stated and committed the investment but then paused when the Chip act was delayed... but they probably weren't going to pick up and leave without the subsidy possibly for political reasons - even though they are a private company you aren't going to piss off the main country you need in your corner if China makes a movie. I'm also confused about people's super positive view of this. Maybe it's political reasons. I think it's largely not being informed on the industry. Like should be celebrate that both TSM and Samsung picked Phoenix area, when the processes they use take a ton of water usage?
Israel is not someone i'd want to mess with...
You just made a point that it was the most heavily defended island. Both UK and AUS are islands. I didn't say it was helpless but if china wanted to wipe them out it could be done with massive losses, something that they haven't minded expending in the past.. But there has been a paradigm shift in their society with people wanting more freedom and not being 100% mindless drones for the government.. but you can still see their compliance with the crazy covid zero policies. I might actually buy a bit of TSM after this discussion... I have already very heavy in that space. Currently AVGO, TXN, AMD, LRCX, KLA, AMAT, ASML... toying with buying intel at these depressed levels.
Considering patty g’s pay package if he announced anything besides absolute confidence he would see a boot.
If management being misled by staff costing the company hundreds of billion in mkt cap ISNT mismanagement then I struggle with what could be.
As Is INTC is bleeding cash. The sensible thing is to cut their divvy. It would allow them to invest almost as much as TSM. But it will halve their market cap.
If they cut the divvy and have a future, I buy. Though if you go on tech subs everyone will remind you nvda and amd are down the street and pay triple for talent.
If TSM was in South Korea they would easily have a market cap 2x what they have right now. Sucks for the stock the geopolitical drag their location has on the company.
BIP, CGN (1816.hk), TSM, HON and BHP.
I'm going to hold all of them till retirement, unless something drastic happens.
I like TSM here bc I feel the gyna Taiwan thing is kinda overblown and they don’t have the surface ships to land anytime soon anyway
Solid list. I'd add TSM for good measure seeing as how none of those pay a divi worth mentioning.
I was under the impression that TSM is building a fab here in Arizona. Which is good. They provide to the entire world chips that can’t really be made anywhere else, for now. That and with the Chinese threatening to invade, having a Taiwanese fab producing their bleeding-edge chips is a giant middle-finger to Xi and a challenge to American chip foundries to step it up.