Might as well throw in Vega while we are at it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6YnSPFsWSc
IV crush high-level (podcast style): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Lw3aUxXdIA
IV crush detailed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v846B7hs9xg
Bonus, the best video on Options Math 101 (clone of the original video that was taken down for some reason): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUx_qa0Ju-g
Teens don't understand compounding returns. A lot of people on tiktok want to get rich quick. The reality is that almost any/every teen could be a millionaire with simple and patient investing that produces modest returns each year. I made a video that explains the mechanics.
I’ve been extremely bearish and don’t want to miss the capitulation event but also don’t want to lose unrealized gains to a strong V shape. Hope we gap down and touch 350 Monday but I think there would be a hard bounce there
Buffet and Munger have done a pretty good job doing just that https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0_dCRTxxDg
> I am starting to think folks on here might not have a clue on the actual data of individual stock investing despite doing it.
OP thinks regular paycheck investing is dollar-cost averaging, so there's a lot of misinformed foolishness happening in this sub. Jack Bogle defines DCA as a scenario where you inherit $1 million and decide to break it up into smaller portions and invest each portion regularly over a fixed period. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa8MqIcMAfM
>2/3 of all stocks had negative returns
the S&P 500 has been underwater about ~70% of the time over the last ~55 years.
bonds outperformed stocks 2000 to 2020, and 1981 to 2011.
the majority of the people on this sub are in for a very painful lesson...
Well what is your opinion on the Roe v. Wade decision. Jk
>just make your regular deposits in stocks across few different industries and forget about it.
this is not Dollar Cost Averaging.
DCA is when you already have a lump-sum of cash and decide to break it up into smaller chunks for investing purposes, mainly to avoid buying a peak. this is the definition used by Jack Bogle of Vanguard in this short clip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa8MqIcMAfM
and it's also the definition used by professor Jeremy Siegel in his book The Future for Investors.
>dca is about not having lump sum of cash.
DCA is exactly about having a lump sum of cash and deciding to break it up into smaller chunks rather than investing it all at once. this is the definition used by Jack Bogle of Vanguard in this short clip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa8MqIcMAfM
and it's also the definition used by professor Jeremy Siegel in his book The Future for Investors.
Interesting, a better take than pumpkin futures in January for sure, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w5D9yJUMOc
the biggest downside of cashless IMO.
i deliberately make an effort to use cash as much s possible as it is easier to keep track of how much you spend.
something about the tactility of physically handing and seeing your cash v paying electronically.
paying electronically takes you a step away and distances you from your finances making it easier to spend.
open you wallet you see how much cash you have you decide what to spend and where. and you have that immediate sense of money is gone this is how much i spent and how much i have now.
tap/insert/swipe card, repeat, repeat, there is no actual sense of how much you are spending nor how much you have until you check you bank and see how little you have left.
WoW TSLA robot is a piece of shit. Moves like it's regarded.
Boston Dynamics made a robot years ago that can do a back flip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw
Who could’ve done that….: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-5L2sfWAmSI
This is probably not the bottom. Even if it is there is unlikely to be a V shaped recovery.
How much interest do you pay on your card?
Also you cant just say that demand will keep up with the productiln capacity that tesla will have after giga berlin. Tesla has around the same amount of backlogged orders as other companies like vw group link
I'm not sure the demographics of this group, but for most of us this is an *opportunity* to buy more at a discounted price.
Dr. William Bernstein puts it well in "Praying for a Bear Market" in the Rational Reminder Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haLGx8KlFvk&t=2670s&ab_channel=TheRationalReminderPodcast
This doesn't apply to the Boglehead approach of owning the bond market. As bond funds rebalance into higher coupon bonds, positive returns are expected. This is not the case with cash.
The house behind where I live just got sold for a crazy price,v so not nearly as bad as it needs to be
I - Red Mage
V - Boko
VI - Kefka
VII - Tifa
VIII - Selphie
IX - Vivi
X - Lulu
XI - Warrior
XIII - Chocolina
Tesla Model V robot vagina sold seperately, $30k.
the comments here have reaffirmed my belief that the chief purpose of our robotic future was previewed in the tv series Silicon Valley with our fave monkey, Kiko
No she had bad formation. She went into v shape and her ass landed in between two sets of arms and as it kept falling it pulled her legs and torso through the gap as well. Had she actually trusted them and fell flat her weight would have been distributed over all arms at the same time (except the last couple who were standing too far away). Instead the fear of falling made her instincts take over which made her reach out to try grasp for anything to stop falling causing the v formation.
Reminds me of this clip
Your leaps will probably get decimated if SPY keeps dropping. I’m not sure if you consider that appropriate.
Personally, I’m not anticipating a big V in the chart again like 2020-2021.
Dancinnng in the moonlight. Everbodyyyy
I watched it a while ago so I probably can't find the one I saw but they pulled this guy over for speeding and then they found his drugs. So he starts running, says that like it's a friend making a mistake, chases him down and tackles him. No guns, no taser, spray, dogs etc.
Anyway this is good too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayTnvVpj9t4&ab_channel=Movieclips
Click here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iuWa5wh8lG0
It is trippy music. Have fun! It is just a common drug and the trip will end ❤️
No more up
Ha! Could you imagine if Google has only stuck with search. The now have 9 different products that each has over a billion daily active users!
Clearly they should continue with the new products. YouTube TV is releatively new and excellent and leading in the category.
Waymo is well ahead of the competition and just incredibe.
I don't think they are are though. At least not when you're making decisions based upon expected returns. It's not about the market going up it's about how much it will go up and over what time frame.
I can believe that 10 years from now the S&P500 will be above it's current all time high but also think that it was overvalued when it peaked in January and thus have been uninclined to invest into it. Maybe I calculated in January that the expected return over the next 10 years from a historical valuation perspective was only going to be 2-3% annually. Now that it's fallen maybe I think the return will be closer to 6-7% annually and that's enough for me to start investing more significantly into it.
You might say, well why would you have invested into it at all if you thought it was overvalued at 4800? I can think of two reasons:
- One, maybe I have a 5% employer match. That return on it's own might be enough for me to put in the 5% needed to get the match but no more. Now that things are cheaper I'd like to get the match plus invest a bit extra because I think valuations justify doing so. Prior to this point maybe I thought I could get a better return elsewhere like real estate.
- Two, most investors agree that it is difficult if not impossible to time the market. I can think that valuations are too high at 4800 but for all I know the market could run to 7000. I don't want to miss that so instead I'm going to just always buy on a weekly basis. Sometimes I'll overpay relative to fair value and sometimes I'll underpay. However, by dollar cost averaging over decades as one would do in a retirement account I'll end up with the average return of the market.
Here's a video that goes over what would happen if you invested $1,500 per month in the S&P over the last 50 years. It then compares that to what would happen if you adjusted that same total dollar amount such that you invested $1,000/month when the market was above historical valuation metrics and $2,000/month when it was below those metrics. Spoiler: You end up with an extra $3.3 million after 50 years by biasing your contributions.
Keeping money in the market because you don't want to miss the top trading days is based on faulty logic:
- It helps more to miss the worst days than to be there for the best days
- The biggest rallies happen in bear markets. If you're there for the best days, most likely you're there for the worst days
- Missing both the best and worst days is better than being there for both
Article V, call a Convention of States and the First United States of America ends.
The forefathers knew this would happen.
It's less about the amount you get back, but rather sign on bonuses.
Also it's not too good to be true, other shoppers using cash and low reward cards are subsidizing high reward card users. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1dgvwpxud8
There's a whole community that specializes in taking advantage of credit card rewards, as it turns out it's not a free lunch.
TLDR of who pays for it: Everybody paying cash or with a low rewards card.
That makes a lot of sense. But I still want to know https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZALSvE6N5d0
Don't underestimate sponsored posts... There's a lot of resources out there on how to find a sponsor, but don't be afraid to think outside the box either.
I once saw a funny meme tiktok account play a pepsi commercial (linked below) with the caption "most disrespectful commercial of all time!" and #ad in the hashtags... meaning pepsi PAID them to post it. (They changed the music to aggressive hip hop music to match the theme of the post).
Pepsi ad in question: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyY15Jkkg2A
What you should be targeting is Total Appreciation as opposed to isolated share growth.
- Share Growth + Price Growth = Total Appreciation
This video explanation by Ben Felix may be enlightening and explains why Dividends, while psychologically neat, should not be your focus.
Umm... The Fed fixed the 2008 financial crisis by making a bigger bubble with QE. Now the chickens (inflation) are coming home to roost...
Michael Burry Sold His ENTIRE Stock Portfolio
Yes, Inflation Is Really That Bad
As a result of inflationary pressures, the average American household will now need to spend about $493 more for expenses to get through the month than they did this time last year. Overall, consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in 40 years, meaning this is the worst inflation experienced by anyone not on the cusp of retirement or older.
Rent is the new gas. Surging rent prices – instead of gas – are hitting consumers hard.
Consumer inflation rose at an 8.3% pace in August, and increased 6.3% excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Both topped economists' mean forecasts for 8% and 6%, respectively, and dashed hopes that inflation had peaked.
Okay, so why is inflation bad? Obviously, when higher prices outstrip wage growth, that’s bad, because your standard of living falls. Inflation is especially harmful to folks whose income is more fixed—like many seniors. Inflation, when left unchecked, can also escalate quickly. Unchecked inflation can turn a prospering economy into a struggling economy. Some of the residual effects of inflation include the steady rise of prices for goods and services over a period, and many other cumulative effects, which negatively impact economic activity.
Since investors haven’t seen significant inflationary price rises in years, it’s worth brushing up on the most common effects of inflation. This first effect of inflation is really just a different way of stating what it is. Inflation is a decrease in the purchasing power of currency due to a rise in prices across the economy. Inflation is generally bad for the economy because it reduces the value of currency, while the value of goods and services remains the same or increases.
When there is excessive inflation, which means that goods are getting very expensive, this will reduce aggregate demand for products in the economy. This will cause a fall in profits of companies (or even losses). Economists believe inflation comes about when the supply of money is greater than the economy can realistically absorb (too many dollars cashing too few goods).
How does inflation affect my investing?
The rate of inflation is important, as it represents the rate at which the real value of an investment is eroded, along with the concurrent loss in spending, or purchasing power over time. Inflation also tells investors exactly how much of a return (in percentage terms) their investments need to make for them to maintain their standard of living. If the rate of return on an investment is less than the rate of inflation, then the investment is effectively losing money (generating a negative return).
Now we have these basic girls protesting about roe v wade like bitch you have a baby killer at home. Just use that
Mazda Turbo is pretty good for what it is... dont discredit Mazda over Honda or Toyota or other japanese brands out there. There is a reason why overseas consumers would call "Mazda" the german of japanese. You totally would get much value for your money to go with Mazda. In 2020 Mazda was ranked no. 1 for dependability and reliability. Trust me... since Ford has departed themselves from Mazda and now Mazda has become a stand alone brand, it's really punching above its weight compared with your usual Honda, Toyota, Nissan, etc. A friend of mine just recently purchased 2023 Honda HR-V EX-L AWD, although the body look good but the overall ride, transmission, and interior are harsh and feels cheap. The interior feels so dated and old whereas Mazda feels really premium... Please test drive both and you will feel the difference.
Not really. They balance out. The YTM (yield to maturity) remains the same because the price on the secondary market is down because the interest rate/coupon went up.
eg what is the difference between
buying a $1000 treasury at $960 with zero interest
buying a $1000 treasury at $1000 with 4% interest
its the same thing
This is one of the ultimate battles for bull v bear. These spikes aren't surprising
Seriously impressive V shaped recovery >!for the VIX!<
Here is a video that explains how tax brackets work https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJL4UT4wAxc
> I don't think seeing any tutorial video where they cover this so I don't know how it works.
Resources from Vanguard:
Other resources that also answer this basic question, not necessarily from Vanguard:
Gotta give it to the MMs, they're playing this perfectly.
Both my long dated puts and short dated calls hedge are getting eaten by theta. :v
Yeah. Could have just as easily shifted that over to the v-shaped recovery, like I just did.
My new chart is Bullish.
Since I cannot post pic #TrustMeBro
Mine as well life the sanctions, since they’re already buying Russian oil through China. They should just end the political theatre at this point. But if they were serious about this they should continue sanctions and not be buying Russian oil.
As far as Nordstream sabotage, this aged well: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-5L2sfWAmSI
This is a really good, but long, documentary on Japan's post war economy up to and past the 90's. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2gE4knl2Ac
Girls who want boys
Who like boys to be girls
Who do boys like they're girls
Who do girls like they're boys
Classic inverse V shaped destruction
No offense, but if you are looking at wealthy people who borrowed until a small JPow decision would bankrupt them, your are observing survivorship bias NOT intelligent investing. I'm not talking about refusing to take on any debt. I'm talking about only taking on comfortable debt. "Fuck you money". If one mistake or one bad turn breaks you, you're a gambler, not an investor.
I'm going to start at the end, since you seem to have a number of misconceptions that inform the earlier questions:
> I understand that option prices are affected by iv (among other things) but i would have thought that iv was unaffected by strike price/bid or ask of option etc since its only looking at the expected volatility of underlying asset, not the option itself.
That's mostly false. Your understanding is mixed up.
First, IV is affected by price, not the other way around. It's literally implied by the price the market is setting for the contract. If a stock is at $50 and the market is pricing a $49 strike call at $6.90, that ginormous premium over intrinsic value implies that the market expects the stock price to go much higher than $50, to the tune $5.90 higher. Prices need more volatility to go higher, thus higher IV is driven by higher contract price.
Thus the statement "its only looking at the expected volatility of the underlying" misses the point. It should be obvious that the two are connected. This is why options are a type of derivative, because their value is derived from the price and volatility of the underlying (among other things).
Now back to the original questions.
> My questions are the following: why do i see different ivs for options with the SAME expiry and DIFFERENT strike prices? Like if i expect the underlying to move a certain way before the expiry date why would the strike price of my option matter?
Because a strike of $69 on a call is going to be worth more than a strike of $420 on a call, if the underlying price is $100. The market attributes more value to strikes that have a higher probability of expiring ITM.
Put another way, the stock's final price will follow some kind of statistical distribution of outcomes. Say a stock starts at $50 and we run time forward 30 days to expiration. The final price will be some number above or below $50, or even $50. Then we rewind time and do that again. Repeat a million times and look at the histogram of final prices. The shape of the histogram will be a bell curve (log-normal) around the mean of $50. A lot of outcomes will be in the $49 and $51 buckets and very few will be in the $2 and $200 buckets.
Following so far? No? Here's a video that says the same thing but in more detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUx_qa0Ju-g
Therefore, the strike that is closest to the mean in the favorable direction has a higher probability of going ITM than a strike that is further from the mean. The market will attribute more value to strikes that have a higher probability of going ITM.
Then when the underlying share price moves, say it goes up $1, we redo the calculation all over again with the new mean and the market adjusts all the values of every strike to reflect the new distribution.
> Similarly, why am i seeing two different ivs for the bid price and ask price of the option?
Where are you seeing that? IMO, that's overkill. I mean, I understand how they are calculated -- you just plug the bid or ask into the pricing model and back-solve for IV -- but what utility does that have? That's just a very complicated way of calculating the cost of crossing the spread.
I like this version better: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eikbQPldhPY
Not sure. AAPL v TREE says otherwise.
Someone didn't heed the advice of Wu-Tang Financial.
Yeah, but in March 2020 the v shaped recovery was lightning fast. This bear is going to grind on for years.
Whether or not the “term” is actuate or valid is irrelevant. The impact is relevant.
Doing the job to the letter is fine and all. But it is an active protest against the unspoken rules that you are always supposed to go above and beyond. It is a conscious effort to be disengaged, or as I heard in a podcast recently “work to rule”. Whether you like the term, or think it is not something worth talking about, it is a formal, intentional decision.
If you are actually looking for the impact on the workplace and culture, you might really find the podcast I listen to quite interesting. It is called diagnosing the workplace, here is a link to the video version on YouTube.
As soon as I saw Gary V. And Cuban saying NFTs are the future and you need to get in now. I realized I should stay far away
Seems to be recommended on bogleheads.org and for some reason works with a lot of expats. For $239 for a year, it's probably good money to avoid some complicated problems.
Here's an interview he did https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5aqA8BrbNk
Quickest v-shaped recovery ever
Sure. John Bogle and Burton Malkiel have been telling you for decades:
"don't time the market. don't pick stocks. buy index funds" - that's recipe for superior performance for nearly all retail investors.
Really simple. If you're a retail investor, posting here, doing anything else -- it will likely cost you money in the long run. If you want to see someone say it on Youtube . . . Professor Malkiel had a talk at Google some years ago, and the advice still holds
"A Random Walk Down Wall Street | Burton Malkiel | Talks at Google"
This pump gives me a very eerie feeling. V last orders on the titanic kinda vibe
Would a Charitable Remainder Trust work here?
How it normally works is; you set up a charitable remainder trust then transfer 100% of the money to the trust and pay 0 taxes. Then use the trust to invest the money and set yourself as the lifetime beneficiary which allows you to make withdrawals from the trust. Not sure if this is possible in your situation but it's worth looking into. Maybe someone here can comment