Tech gets crushed with increasing rates. Plus risks with avgo buying vmw. But it's your call.
Anyone looking into the arbitrage on the VMware / Broadcom deal? Deal was supposed to be $60B for VMW but its trading at $47B market cap. Maybe reflecting AVGO share decline but if they pay cash it should be like$142/share vs current price of $112.
I dont see any volume on Nov calls though?
ESTC VMW WDAY What’s the play here?
Dollar general calls and VMW calls
$AFRM - calls
$VMW - calls
So it is written. So it shall be done.
Implied moves for earnings next week:
Implied moves for earnings next week:
I should have waited 1 more day to cash in my puts on VMW. That sucker gave me good profit, i had $132p 1/20/2023.
I am really annoyed by Robinhood . Its still manipulating the put bids. VMW dumping and every time i try to sell my puts, it just lowers the Bid price. Fuck HOOD
TDA showing VMW puts are $1 for $120put 7/1/2022. But Robinhood shows $0.68. Fuck HOOD
#Ban Bet Lost
/u/InfamousMB (0/1) made a bet that VMW would go to 140.0 when it was 124.05 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.
I am still holding $132p of VMW.. 10 months to expire😝
I am still holding VMW long puts… the takeover may not happen and I want to make money of it😛
Why isn't VMW higher?
Broadcom is going to buy the shares at $142.50, but the stock is still at $128. What gives?
Do you think the VMW take over by AVGO make any sense? Why they are paying $40 mire than market price ? Is this a good deal for AVGO stock holders?
I am getting hammered by VMW … my puts are in shambles 🤣.. but added few more cheap puts with long expiration dates 😎
I hate giving random advice without knowing you or your personal risk tolerance and financial situation. There’s alot of factors to consider if you want to hold Broadcom long term.
If it was me, I’d sell it soon way before the merger. The reason Vmw is not trading at 142 right now is the risk the deal falls through.
I agree that this deal will close. After the tech beatdown, there's no reason anyone at either AVGO or VMW will object to it and I don't see how regulators will nix it either.
This feels a lot like the Microfocus acquisition of HP Software. Broadcom is going to dismantle the VM portoflio, likely part out a bunch of the cruft that is garbage, lay off a ton of people (probably north of 20k) ride on a ton of support revenue / VM inertia and see if it can salvage some of the newer tacked together garbage like the Tanzu portfolio.
Ultimately, the winners are all of VMw's major competitors. There are a lot of good people working for VMw and you can be damned sure everyone from other technology vendors to system integrators are going to poach the heck out of that team.
Ban Bet Created: /u/InfamousMB bet VMW goes from 124.05 to 140.0 before 2022-06-09 17:49:26.784496-04:00
I have 10 VMW puts expiring in August, averaging 1.75
You won't need to do a thing. Just wait until the deal closes. Your broker will change your account to show the right number of BRCM shares and 0 VMW shares, plus a little cash for a remainder of a share unless you have a multiple of 500 VMW shares.
The offer of $142.50 in cash or 0.2520 of a Broadcom share for each VMware stock represents a premium of nearly 49% to the stock's last close before talks of the deal were first reported on May 22.
How will I be able to make this selection? I have stome VMW stock.
Scooping up more VMW puts call me crazy or fool what so ever.🤣
I really hate the stock VMW. I hate that fucker.
Welp VMW fucked right in the ass
I dumped my AVGO at 600 before the recent downfall, now I am wondering if I made mistake or not.. VMW however went up as fuck last week on the rumors
Wow, Dell got the VMW deal up to 142.50.
Really nice deal there.
>BROADCOM TO ACQUIRE VMWARE FOR APPROXIMATELY $61 BILLION IN CASH AND STOCK >VMWARE INC - BROADCOM WILL ASSUME $8 BLN OF VMWARE NET DEBT $VMW $AVGO
^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-05-26 ^07:00:43 ^EDT-0400
Stocks: GOOG, Options: VMW long puts, SQ 3- option strategy.
Yes VMW has been through 3 or 4 different formulations over the past 10-15 years.
It was acquired by EMC originally, which floated some of its shares as it became much more valuable than EMC.
Then Dell bought EMC and exchanged VMW's outstanding shares for tracking shares (shares that mimic the underlying when the underlying doesn't trade freely).
Finally Dell decided to spinoff VMW by giving all of VMW shares to its holders (which means Michael Dell got 40% of the shares of VMW).
It's been a very complex ride.
VMW peg at $120 has lasted 45 minutes now.
VMW has been pegged at $120 for the past 30 minutes.
Does somebody know something about the merger announcement (AVGO rumored to be offering $140 per share) tomorrow?
Feels like a hedge fund put a buy order with a limit of $120 today and has just been hoovering up shares for tomorrow's "potential" announcement.
Loading up on some close to the money VMW calls since they look pretty cheap right now given the expectation of a merger announcement in the next 2 days.
IV is low and stock should move at least halfway to the $140 merger price that's been leaked, I would guess.
I’m pretty sure 5/27 VMW calls will be easy money
I just tossed a coin to see whats going to happen to VMW stocks price tomorrow- $25 down or $5 up? It was $25 down that means I am 💲💲💲ing!
I invested 75% in stocks today and rest on the VMW put. Hope to make some more money when it the VMW buying fails.😝
Bought a long put on VMW as this kind of talks always happens but falls short frequently
VMW calls could be a good play before Thurs. i learned this one in the newspaper so you know it’s good.
VMW is a shit company with a shittier business model in a competitive market.
Buying vMW puts.. it will print on 5/26/22
VMW seems like it'd be an interesting acquisition target for a lot of companies in the cloud computing space, but AVGO seems like a weird one. Wonder if it's because they don't think they could get regulator approval if they went after other semi companies? I don't understand it.
Thoughts on $VMW ITM puts short term?
Why didnt my friend who works for VMW , subtly mention that there were takeover murmurs etc when we met last week 🤬. i would have just taken leap calls. up 20% today
AVGO buying VMW. I’m buying VMW
Earnings this week.
$ZM $XPEV $HEI $AAP $A $BBY $TOL $WOOF $ATHM $JWN $SBLK $QFIN $NVDA $BNS $BMO $SNOW $ZTO $SPLK $UHAL $WSM $DXC $CHNG $DKS $NTNX $SGHC $BOX $BABA $COST $RY $MDT $TD $CM $MRVL $DG $BIDU $WDAY $VMW $DELL $DLTR $ULTA $M $IQ $PDD $BIG $CGC
Some implied moves for earnings next week->
Some implied moves for earnings next week->
Mrvl will give data centre networking and 5g IP. But also makes me wonder as they have mellanox already.
What do you think vmw brings to the table?
>*Google Cloud and VMware Expand Global Partnership to Help Enterprises Accelerate App Modernization and Cloud Transformation $GOOGL $VMW
^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-03-16 ^08:04:09 ^EDT-0400
I've been trading full time since 2016. I've had savagely devastating years as I've traded through presidential elections, trade wars with China, collapse of the interest rates, pandemic, and now war.
My biggest mistake, one that I will NEVER repeat is to trade too big. My largest position these days is 2% of my account. This way if something goes against me one position can't wipe me out.
Second mistake is trading underlyings that have terrible liquidity. Currently SPY is the gold standard with mostly penny wide bid/ask... Now take a look at something like MDT or VMW - untradeable. The liquidity has dried up making fills difficult anywhere near a decent mid-price. Hard to enter, even harder to exit... It's a trap.
Earnings are another thing I avoid if possible. The IV crush makes for a quick buck... but it can take 10+ winning earnings trades to make up for 1 mishap... not good odds there. FB, DOCU, ROKU, SHOP... these are all examples of why I don't trade through earnings.
Avoid the big indexes SPY, QQQ, IWM, & DIA. When I want short deltas RIGHT NOW, this is where I have to do it. It balances my deltas, but I fucking hate it. These are the metrics the world measures financial power. There will always be buying pressure to push these towards ATH. Unfortunately these are so BLOATED with the feds printing press that I can't be involved on the long side... and because of the institutional focus on pushing these higher my shorts always get run over with the rally... I am not the kind of person to "buy the dip". Trade as a LAST RESORT.
In the next week or so all my March positions have to roll to April. I have inverted positions, unrealized losses, positions that are stressing me with the wild swings. Currently I have about 50% of my capital allocated, and would like to scale that back to around 30%. IVR is too high, and even though my greeks are in line, that theta hasn't worked, nor will it until the week of expiration.
I have no confidence in the market, or my trades... but I make them anyway because this is what I chose to do with my brain, money, and time.
“You miss one hundred percent of the shots you don't take.”
Here are some predicted moves After earnings are released. This is not the volatility of the stock, just a prediction based on past moves.
|Symbol Company |Earning Date |Predicted after earnings| |-------------------------|---------------|:----------------------:| |LCID Lucid Group Inc |02/21 After | 23% | |APA APA |02/21 After | 2% | |WMB Williams Co |02/21 After | 2% | |TNDM Tandem Diabetes.. |02/22 After | 9% | |TDOC Teladoc |02/22 After | 7% | |EXAS Exact Sciences |02/22 After | 7% | |PANW Palo Alto Netwo.. |02/22 After | 7% | |RNG RingCentral |02/22 After | 6% | |SPCE Virgin Galactic.. |02/22 After | 5% | |CZR Caesars Enterta.. |02/22 After | 4% | |RIG Transocean |02/22 After | 4% | |MOS Mosaic Co |02/22 After | 4% | |TOL Toll Brothers |02/22 After | 4% | |RRC Range Resources |02/22 After | 3% | |M Macy's |02/22 before | 6% | |FLR Fluor |02/22 before | 5% | |HL Hecla Mining Co.. |02/22 before | 4% | |HD Home Depot |02/22 before | 2% | |MDT Medtronic |02/22 before | 2% | |HSBC HSBC Holdings |02/22 before | 2% | |ROOT Root Inc |02/23 After | 14% | |LMND Lemonade |02/23 After | 12% | |RVLV Revolve Group I.. |02/23 After | 11% | |SKLZ Skillz |02/23 After | 9% | |FUBO fuboTV |02/23 After | 9% | |OLED Universal Displ.. |02/23 After | 9% | |NTAP NetApp |02/23 After | 6% | |CLOV Clover Health I.. |02/23 After | 6% | |EBAY Ebay |02/23 After | 5% | |BKNG Booking Holding.. |02/23 After | 5% | |AHT Ashford Hospita.. |02/23 After | 4% | |CTRA |02/23 After | 2% | |JMIA Jumia Technolog.. |02/23 before | 13% | |OSTK Overstock |02/23 before | 11% | |LL Lumber Liquidat.. |02/23 before | 10% | |SSYS Stratasys |02/23 before | 8% | |CSTM Constellium |02/23 before | 6% | |CLVS Clovis Oncology |02/23 before | 6% | |TJX TJX Companies |02/23 before | 3% | |PBR Petroleo Brasil.. |02/23 before | 3% | |LOW Lowe's |02/23 before | 3% | |HFC Hollyfrontier |02/23 before | 3% | |HLF Herbalife |02/23 After | 6% | |BHC Bausch Health C.. |02/23 Before | 6% | |NKTR Nektar Therapeu.. |02/24 After | 6% | |SQ Square Inc |02/24 After | 6% | |ENDP Endo Internatio.. |02/24 Before | 7% | |LI Li Auto |02/24 Before | 6% | |VMW VMware |02/24 Before | 6% |
Primarily due to the wild market swings. I want to keep my available buying power sidelined to use in defense of existing positions. Just yesterday I had to roll down many calls, then later that afternoon roll up many puts. Most of my trades are on both sides of the market (calls and puts) so adding new positions when the market moves +/-5% intraday isn't my style.
NASDAQ had a ~700 point swing intraday, DOW had a ~1000 point swing intraday... at no point did I ever feel like there was a trade to put on. Option bid/ask were wide, fills were slow, short delta positions were not offsetting longs b/c of the IVR spike. Many factors.
/VX is always on my watchlist, it's a good indicator that option premium is rich or cheap. IVR on individual equities is a good check as well; above 20 I will sell premium, but over 60 I tend to pass. Anything below 20, it's debit spreads and calendars. I also close premium positions when the IVR drops below 15 (win or lose I'm out).
As for qualitative, the number 1 factor is liquidity. I want an underlying to have millions in daily volume, a tight bid/ask option price, and 10K open interest around ATM contracts. A poor liquidity example of an interesting play for me is VMW (VMWare). I like the price, product, etc, but it's illiquid with >$.50 bid/ask. I can put in an offer to sell a contract at the mid price, and it will sit all day and not get filled. Now what happens when the market is going wild? Those markets get even wider... When I want delta's, I want them RIGHT NOW, not at the end of the day.
Hope that helps, Good luck.
Thanks for the input. I have about 6% of my taxable invested in CIBR, so not really a big play. But yes, will keep watching CSCO, ACN, PANW, CRWD, JNPR, CHKP, VMW... I probably should've allocated this money to CSCO (which is approximately 8% of my portfolio.) But still learning about diversification and her dreaded partner, diWORSE-ification... Wow... Leidos (LDOS) is looking VERY promising... And returning a dividend... hmmmm
I also forgot one other point. Throughout the 90’s and early 2000’s I worked for a company with a pension plan.
So based on planning early in my career that pension should have taken care of 1/3 of my retirement needs. Savings only needed to VMW over 1/3, SSI was the rest. Well that Fortune 500 company was bought out. I was laid off and I haven’t had a pension since.
They used to refer to that as the “three legged stool” of retirement planning. And for the majority of folks one leg got kicked out from under then.
I was vested, so I was entitled, but my benefits were essentially frozen with 15 years of service. I was offered a buyout and up to that point the pension buyout was around 100K. So I took it and rolled it over into my 401K. Why? It was only projected to grow at 2.5 % or something like that. I figured I could grow it more on my own.
I’m over a million and I’m 55. But some of it was luck, sticking to being invested even when markets were down and dollar cost averaging over decades. I never really put away more then 15% of my salary. It’s just been slow and steady wins the race.
TECK, F, SCHW, FCX, VMW are doing pretty well this past week (started a new portfolio on 1/4).
I would buy dividend stocks that are not terribly volatile but have some growth:
BHP (10% div), FFIC (bank, 3.3% div), AVT (low PE, 2.3% div), T
If you want to own some pizzazz, try QCOM, VMW.
Hard to go wrong with Visa (V), GOOG as well.
#Ban Bet Won
/u/rdawg214 (1/0) made a bet that VMW would go to 135.0 when it was 118.97 and it did, congrats retard.
Guessing this is vmw and I generally always sell rsu in vests and diversify my holdings
VMW and NFLX also positive. Interesting that NFLX is up while VIAC is down more than the S&P when both are ostensibly media companies.
VMW, TTWO... yolo the stock not options for fuck sake
What happened to call/put options when Dell spun off VMW a while back? I haven't been paying attention
Dell and VMW with the most anemic post-earnings price action I have ever seen. I am greatly disappointed.
Looked at VMW and past ER history said it doesn't move that much so I didn't enter a position. Could have been a good theta play though.
I am whelmed by this dell/vmw post earnings price action. I might be able to buy an extra soda with my Wendy’s tomorrow from my call profits on both.
I’m not the only one seeing free money with puts on VMW right?
Anybody in on VMW calls for earnings? They paid out 20% of their market cap as a special dividend going into earnings, which seems to be the majority of what the stock lost in price over the past month.
Haven't seen many companies do this, anybody have stories of "return of capital" type dividends and price effects on next earnings?
Vmw likely to be IV crushed it's trading pretty much at it's fair value.
Jwn might be worth it for calls. I saw Victoria secret. And I think another luxury brand earlier? Basically due to supply chain issues, demand for clothing has gone up and that people are willing to pay a huge premium for them.
I recommend JWN and VMW puts for tomorrow’s earnings play