Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA

I think you mean VMW? The Dell spin-off?

>EU ANTITRUST REGULATORS SET TO WARN BROADCOM ABOUT POSSIBLE ANTI-COMPETITIVE IMPACT OF $61 BLN VMWARE BID, SOURCES SAY $AVGO $VMW

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2023-02-27 ^06:35:22 ^EST-0500

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 569 companies reporting:
$TGT 8.6%
$ZM 12.9%
$SNOW 11.0%
$CRM 7.7%
$SPLK 10.4%
$COST 3.9%
$AVGO 4.6%
$ZS 11.9%
$MRVL 8.4%
$DELL 6.6%
$JWN 11.0%
$AI 15.6%
$ESTC 14.7%
$VMW 5.2%
$PLUG 10.3%
$OKTA 12.7%
$BOX 8.3%
$VEEV 10.3%
$NIO 11.5%
$LOW 5.1%
$KSS 10.9%
$DLTR 7.9%
$WKHS 14.1%
$WEN 5.8%
$TUP 27.0%
$EYE 12.9%
$WDAY 7.4%
$AMC 19.2%
$FSLR 7.9%
$RIVN 15.8%
$PSTG 12.7%
$A 6.7%
$CDLX 29.0%
$BBY 7.6%
$M 10.0%
$KR 5.7%
$BURL 9.0%
$BILI 13.7%
$BUD 4.6%
$ICPT 12.9%
$SSYS 12.4%
$BLNK 11.3%
$AMBA 12.2%
$SPCE 15.0%
$NVTA 25.6%
$DDD 14.8%
$MNST 6.4%
$AXON 10.2%
$SRPT 9.3%
$NRDY 28.0%
$CUTR 13.6%
$YOU 13.1%
$HIMS 18.1%
$IIPR 9.4%
$TASK 17.7%
$AZO 4.6%
$AAP 8.9%
$FOUR 16.3%
$BMRN 8.4%
$EVER 16.6%
$VMEO 30.9%
$CDNA 29.8%
$PRFT 9.0%
$XRAY 8.2%
$GOGO 11.7%
$HSKA 13.0%
$FUBO 25.9%
$LI 10.0%
$AXSM 13.7%
$FSR 14.9%
$TREE 17.2%
$FRPT 13.4%
$ITRI 11.7%

Some implied moves for earnings next week - 560 companies reporting:

​

$TGT 8.6%

$ZM 12.9%

$SNOW 11.0%

$CRM 7.7%

$SPLK 10.4%

$COST 3.9%

$AVGO 4.6%

$ZS 11.9%

$MRVL 8.4%

$DELL 6.6%

$JWN 11.0%

$AI 15.6%

$ESTC 14.7%

$VMW 5.2%

$PLUG 10.3%

$OKTA 12.7%

$BOX 8.3%

$VEEV 10.3%

$NIO 11.5%

$LOW 5.1%

$KSS 10.9%

$DLTR 7.9%

$WKHS 14.1%

$WEN 5.8%

$TUP 27.0%

$EYE 12.9%

$WDAY 7.4%

$AMC 19.2%

$FSLR 7.9%

$RIVN 15.8%

$PSTG 12.7%

$A 6.7%

$CDLX 29.0%

$BBY 7.6%

$M 10.0%

$KR 5.7%

$BURL 9.0%

$BILI 13.7%

$BUD 4.6%

$ICPT 12.9%

$SSYS 12.4%

$BLNK 11.3%

$AMBA 12.2%

$SPCE 15.0%

$NVTA 25.6%

$DDD 14.8%

$MNST 6.4%

$AXON 10.2%

$SRPT 9.3%

$NRDY 28.0%

$CUTR 13.6%

$YOU 13.1%

$HIMS 18.1%

$IIPR 9.4%

$TASK 17.7%

$AZO 4.6%

$AAP 8.9%

$FOUR 16.3%

$BMRN 8.4%

$EVER 16.6%

$VMEO 30.9%

$CDNA 29.8%

$PRFT 9.0%

$XRAY 8.2%

$GOGO 11.7%

$HSKA 13.0%

$FUBO 25.9%

$LI 10.0%

$AXSM 13.7%

$FSR 14.9%

$TREE 17.2%

$FRPT 13.4%

$ITRI 11.7%

AVERAGE EARNINGS MOVE | LAST MOVE | IMPLIED MOVE FROM ATM OPTIONS PRICING

2023-02-27

$OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation: 5.4% | 9.29% | 6.05%

$ZM | Zoom Video Communications Inc: 15.91% | 9.87% | 13.29%

$PGR | Progressive Corporation: 3.22% | 2.48% | 4.67%

$HEI | HEICO Corp: 5.32% | 4.12% | 5.47%

$TGT | Target Corp: 6.84% | 12.17% | 8.68%

$WDAY | Workday Inc: 7.63% | 18.15% | 7.78%

$OKE | ONEOK Inc: 4.02% | 2.56% | 5.03%

2023-02-28

$HPQ | HP Inc: 6.94% | 5.34% | 6.13%

$SRE | Sempra Energy: 3.26% | 0.64% | 5.09%

$CPNG | Coupang Inc: 15.84% | 26.05% | 12.8%

$RKT | Rocket Companies Inc: 8.15% | 4.55% | 10.55%

$MNST | Monster Beverage Corporation: 6.62% | 9.36% | 6.91%

$AZO | AutoZone Inc: 4.9% | 0.89% | 5.82%

$BNS | Bank Nova Scotia Halifax: 3.27% | 3.04% | 5.7%

$A | Agilent Technologies: 4.14% | 6.99% | 6.57%

$AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc: 10.5% | 10.14% | 20.39%

$VRSK | Verisk Analytics Inc: 4.78% | 7.57% | 5.18%

$BMO | Bank of Montreal: 2.88% | 2.73% | 4.83%

2023-03-01

$OKTA | Okta Inc: 12.37% | 25.89% | 13.14%

$CRM | Salesforce Com Inc: 6.33% | 11.34% | 7.32%

$SNOW | Snowflake Inc: 8.55% | 8.41% | 10.89%

$VEEV | Veeva Systems Inc: 9.51% | 15.87% | 10.09%

$LOW | Lowes Companies Inc: 4.97% | 7.25% | 5.55%

$DLTR | Dollar Tree Inc: 8.74% | 7.69% | 8.06%

$RY | Royal Bank of Canada: 2.34% | 1.85% | 3.88%

$NIO | : 16.81% | 18.49% | 11.64%

2023-03-02

$KR | Kroger Co: 7.11% | 8.47% | 5.56%

$BBY | Best Buy Company: 9.27% | 15.28% | 8.04%

$TD | Toronto Dominion Bank: 2.85% | 2.21% | 4.15%

$BURL | Burlington Stores Inc: 10.83% | 19.48% | 8.7%

$AVGO | Broadcom Inc: 6.05% | 1.61% | 4.83%

$HRL | Hormel Foods Corporation: 5.25% | 4.57% | 3.69%

$HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: 6.57% | 9.13% | 6.61%

$CNQ | Canadian Natural Resources Ltd: 4.64% | 2.48% | 7.17%

$DELL | Dell Technologies Inc: 7.34% | 10.18% | 7.28%

$VMW | Vmware Inc: 6.35% | 1.16% | 4.22%

$ZS | Zscaler Inc: 16.56% | 22.15% | 12.25%

$MRVL | Marvell Technology Group Ltd: 6.42% | 9.49% | 8.75%

$COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation: 3.44% | 3.5% | 3.74%

“Those” types of PE made (and are continuing to make) historic moves in tech. Vista taking private Citrix was huge, and Broadcom/VMW is massive too. Tons of others happening now.

You have to go pretty far down the list to find something in Nasdaq but not in sp500. I truthfully don’t know if these are still not in sp500 but the biggest tech stocks not included used to be: meta, Airbnb, Uber, vmw. Not saying any of them are great or bad, just pointing out the overlap is pretty large.

VMW is currently trading at $124.98 per share. I recommend buying the VMW $212.6 call options for $1.15 per contract. These options have a 11,400% upside potential and expire today.

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive

I was just joking there and I personally don't own either of those tickers but I would go with $ORCL over $IBM any day. Going by your name and some of your past posts, you seem to be in the tech space so this makes it easier for me to explain my perspective. Right off the bat, The following are my reasons and also why I think $ORC can outperform $IBM in the long run. Again I look at this from an HW Engineer's perceptive, make of it what you will.

1. Once $AVGO's acquisition of $VMW goes through, they'll gradually reduce resources focused on their smaller customers. $ORCL is in a much better position pick up the slack as one of the next best thing in the Virtual Machine space. $NTNX is not mature enough for some of the sticky customers VMware will be dropping post acquisition and some of their existing customers have already started their migration.
2. Hardware companies are slowly ditching their internally built ERP for the cloud based ERP more than ever now, our company is one of them, it makes integration with contract manufacturers, vendors and newly acquired firms through M&As much easier. $ORC has a lot to gain from this transition as well.
3. $ORCL reinvests a good amount of its profits in R&D and they seem to be pretty good at it, whereas IBM distributes it as dividends and they don't seem to have an Idea on how to efficiently allocate capital.
   Watson was supposed to be their huge break and we all know what happened there. IBM spent close to 170 Bil $ on buy backs which is worth more than their current market cap. Poor capital allocation can kill a company unless you're Google.

Visual mode wins we can say that vmw

>BROADCOM FACES FULL-SCALE EU ANTITRUST PROBE INTO $61 BLN VMWARE DEAL, SOURCES SAY $AVGO $VMW

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-12-09 ^13:17:52 ^EST-0500

I like $ATVI. Check out VMWare ($VMW) …I think Broadcom ($AVGO) acquiring them for ~$140/share

Tech gets crushed with increasing rates. Plus risks with avgo buying vmw. But it's your call.

Anyone looking into the arbitrage on the VMware / Broadcom deal? Deal was supposed to be $60B for VMW but its trading at $47B market cap. Maybe reflecting AVGO share decline but if they pay cash it should be like$142/share vs current price of $112.

I dont see any volume on Nov calls though?

>*NetApp and VMware Strengthen Global Partnership to Help Customers Modernize With Multi-Cloud $NTAP $VMW

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-08-29 ^08:00:35 ^EDT-0400

ESTC calls, WDAY calls, VMW puts

ESTC VMW WDAY What’s the play here?

VMW puts or calls ?

VMW

Dollar general calls and VMW calls

$AFRM - calls

$VMW - calls

So it is written. So it shall be done.

Implied moves for earnings next week:

​

$NVDA 6.9%
$CRM 7.4%
$SNOW 12.5%
$SPLK 9.7%
$AFRM 21.0%
$ULTA 7.1%
$WDAY 7.9%
$FTCH 23.5%
$ESTC 15.6%
$VMW 5.7%
$ADSK 7.7%
$WSM 12.9%
$NTAP 8.2%
$PTON 22.0%
$DG 5.4%
$DLTR 9.1%
$BURL 9.7%
$SCVL 17.9%
$ZM 14.2%
$PANW 8.7%
$M 12.3%
$DKS 11.5%
$XPEV 9.7%
$MDT 3.6%
$JD 7.5%
$SJM 5.5%
$JWN 14.5%
$AAP 7.8%
$INTU 6.3%
$TOL 6.8%
$LZB 12.9%
$WOOF 10.0%
$EAT 15.2%
$NDSN 6.6%
$DLO 20.1%

Implied moves for earnings next week:

​

$NVDA 6.9%
$CRM 7.4%
$SNOW 12.5%
$SPLK 9.7%
$AFRM 21.0%
$ULTA 7.1%
$WDAY 7.9%
$FTCH 23.5%
$ESTC 15.6%
$VMW 5.7%
$ADSK 7.7%
$WSM 12.9%
$NTAP 8.2%
$PTON 22.0%
$DG 5.4%
$DLTR 9.1%
$BURL 9.7%
$SCVL 17.9%
$ZM 14.2%
$PANW 8.7%
$M 12.3%
$DKS 11.5%
$XPEV 9.7%
$MDT 3.6%
$JD 7.5%
$SJM 5.5%
$JWN 14.5%
$AAP 7.8%
$INTU 6.3%
$TOL 6.8%
$LZB 12.9%
$WOOF 10.0%
$EAT 15.2%
$NDSN 6.6%
$DLO 20.1%

https://youtu.be/TYWq_cb0vmw

Deep ref. Only if you know exactly what to search for can you find this

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>BROADCOM’S $69BN VMWARE DEAL SET FOR LENGTHY EU ANTITRUST INVESTIGATION - FT $AVGO $VMW

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-06-23 ^09:28:06 ^EDT-0400

I should have waited 1 more day to cash in my puts on VMW. That sucker gave me good profit, i had $132p 1/20/2023.

I am really annoyed by Robinhood . Its still manipulating the put bids. VMW dumping and every time i try to sell my puts, it just lowers the Bid price. Fuck HOOD

TDA showing VMW puts are $1 for $120put 7/1/2022. But Robinhood shows $0.68. Fuck HOOD

#Ban Bet Lost

/u/InfamousMB (0/1) made a bet that VMW would go to 140.0 when it was 124.05 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

I am still holding $132p x 7of VMW.. 10 months to expire😝

I am still holding VMW long puts… the takeover may not happen and I want to make money of it😛

$VMW

Why isn't VMW higher?

Broadcom is going to buy the shares at $142.50, but the stock is still at $128. What gives?

Do you think the VMW take over by AVGO make any sense? Why they are paying $40 mire than market price ? Is this a good deal for AVGO stock holders?

VMW long puts and GOOG stocks

I am getting hammered by VMW … my puts are in shambles 🤣.. but added few more cheap puts with long expiration dates 😎

I dislike giving random advice without knowing you or your personal risk tolerance and financial situation. There’s a lot of factors to consider if you don’t want to hold Broadcom long term so make sure you do what's best for you.

If it was me, I’d sell it soon and before the merger. Take the gains and don't worry about the extra 12% one year from now. The reason VMW is not trading at 142 right now is there is some risks the deal won't get approve or get delayed.

Like the other poster said, you will get full disclosure on what your options are. There’s a couple of choices depending if you want to keep Broadcom.

If you don’t want to hold Broadcom, you can sell it now and lose the 13 %premium. Or wait until merger closed and sell at least whatever price Broadcom will be.

No, there is no freezing of the stock price. The conversion will happen after the completion of the deal at that price then it will be at the whims of the market. However, some brokers might take a few days to get your avgo shares/cash the share price can go up or down this period.

I went through the AMD/xlnx merger. I had xlnx shares and they converted on the day or the closure. However,I didn’t get my new AMD shares until a week or two later. The share prices moved within that time but it’s not like it made a difference as it bounced around for that week.

if you like Broadcom the best is to buy Vmw shares now and let it convert and you get a 13% discount when it converts. That’s only if you like Broadcom and the think merger it will go through.

I agree that this deal will close. After the tech beatdown, there's no reason anyone at either AVGO or VMW will object to it and I don't see how regulators will nix it either.

Ban Bet Created: /u/InfamousMB bet VMW goes from 124.05 to 140.0 before 2022-06-09 17:49:26.784496-04:00

!Banbet VMW $140 2w

I have 10 VMW puts expiring in August, averaging 1.75

The offer of $142.50 in cash or 0.2520 of a Broadcom share for each VMware stock represents a premium of nearly 49% to the stock's last close before talks of the deal were first reported on May 22.

How will I be able to make this selection? I have stome VMW stock.

Scooping up more VMW puts call me crazy or fool what so ever.🤣

I really hate the stock VMW. I hate that fucker.

Welp VMW fucked right in the ass

I dumped my AVGO at 600 before the recent downfall, now I am wondering if I made mistake or not.. VMW however went up as fuck ~~last~~ this week on the rumors

EDIT: not last week, this week

Wow, Dell got the VMW deal up to 142.50.

Really nice deal there.

>BROADCOM TO ACQUIRE VMWARE FOR APPROXIMATELY $61 BILLION IN CASH AND STOCK >VMWARE INC - BROADCOM WILL ASSUME $8 BLN OF VMWARE NET DEBT $VMW $AVGO

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-05-26 ^07:00:43 ^EDT-0400

Bro you still holding your vmw?

Stocks: GOOG, Options: VMW long puts, SQ 3- option strategy.

Yes VMW has been through 3 or 4 different formulations over the past 10-15 years.

It was acquired by EMC originally, which floated some of its shares as it became much more valuable than EMC.

Then Dell bought EMC and exchanged VMW's outstanding shares for tracking shares (shares that mimic the underlying when the underlying doesn't trade freely).

Finally Dell decided to spinoff VMW by giving all of VMW shares to its holders (which means Michael Dell got 40% of the shares of VMW since that is his ownership % of Dell).

It's been a very complex ride.

VMW peg at $120 has lasted 45 minutes now.

VMW has been pegged at $120 for the past 30 minutes. Very unusual price action.

Does "somebody" know something about the potential merger announcement (AVGO rumored to be offering $140 per share) tomorrow?

Feels like a hedge fund put a buy order with a limit of $120 today and has just been hoovering up shares for tomorrow's "potential" announcement.

Yes but risk is all on what Michael Dell decides to do since he owns 40% of VMW.

I'm hoping they announce it before Thursday trading session and cancel the earnings call.

WSJ said yesterday that they're pretty close but Bloomberg said they're somewhat far apart.

I bought a couple 120 calls expiring this week but will probably sell them before earnings if nothing is announced...

That's what I don't get. WSJ/CNBC reported already, but the price barely moved last night.

Not sure what is missing here.

Maybe investors think deal falls apart before VMW earnings.

Loading up on some close to the money VMW calls since they look pretty cheap right now given the expectation of a merger announcement in the next 2 days.

IV is low and stock should move at least halfway to the $140 merger price that's been leaked, I would guess.

Anyone playing VMW?

I’m pretty sure 5/27 VMW calls will be easy money

I just tossed a coin to see whats going to happen to VMW stocks price tomorrow- $25 down or $5 up? It was $25 down that means I am 💲💲💲ing!

I invested 75% in stocks today and rest on the VMW put. Hope to make some more money when the VMW buying fails.😝

Bought a long put on VMW as this kind of talks always happens but falls short frequently

VMW calls could be a good play before Thurs. i learned this one in the newspaper so you know it’s good.

Why VMW puts?

Stocks: RBLX, options: VMW puts

VMW is a shit company with a shittier business model in a competitive market.

Buy VMW put and AVGO calls💲💲💲

>*BROADCOM-VMWARE DEAL SAID TO COME SOON AS THIS WEEK $VMW $AVGO

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-05-23 ^14:59:30 ^EDT-0400

Buying vMW puts.. it will print on 5/26/22

VMW seems like it'd be an interesting acquisition target for a lot of companies in the cloud computing space, but AVGO seems like a weird one. Wonder if it's because they don't think they could get regulator approval if they went after other semi companies? I don't understand it.

VMW has some impressive products, didn't realize quite how cheap they were. Might've been interested if I realized before this news. Oh well.

If monkeypox is airborne it's spy 100

Airborne precautions are taken in hospitals.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1528081210735476739?t=njo-hqhJl0IOTWwZtVmwIg&s=19

Thoughts on $VMW ITM puts short term?

VMW

Why didnt my friend who works for VMW , subtly mention that there were takeover murmurs etc when we met last week 🤬. i would have just taken leap calls. up 20% today

>VMWARE INC SHARES SURGE 18.1% IN PREMARKET TRADING AFTER REPORTS BROADCOM IN TALKS TO BUY CO $VMW $AVGO

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-05-23 ^04:53:54 ^EDT-0400

AVGO buying VMW. I’m buying VMW

Earnings this week.

$ZM $XPEV $HEI $AAP $A $BBY $TOL $WOOF $ATHM $JWN $SBLK $QFIN $NVDA $BNS $BMO $SNOW $ZTO $SPLK $UHAL $WSM $DXC $CHNG $DKS $NTNX $SGHC $BOX $BABA $COST $RY $MDT $TD $CM $MRVL $DG $BIDU $WDAY $VMW $DELL $DLTR $ULTA $M $IQ $PDD $BIG $CGC

Some implied moves for earnings next week->
$NVDA 11.2%
$SNOW 19.6%
$ZM 21.7%
$BABA 9.5%
$COST 8.8%
$ULTA 9.9%
$MRVL 11.5%
$WDAY 11.4%
$ZS 17.3%
$ADSK 10.3%
$DELL 11.4%
$VMW 8.5%
$FTCH 33.3%
$MDT 4.4%
$M 15.6%
$DG 9.6%
$DLTR 12.5%
$BIDU 9.9%
$BURL 15.4%
$CGC 18.5%
$BIG 20.4%
$PDD 16.0%
$SPLK 12.2%
$WSM 15.9%
$BOX 11.9%
$NTNX 13.3%
$ELF 12.9%
$XPEV 13.3%
$AAP 12.5%
$NDSN 8.2%
$BBY 14.2%
$AZO 7.9%
$DKS 12.8%
$ANF 15.8%
$WOOF 12.2%
$RL 13.6%
$CSIQ 10.4%
$INTU 9.6%
$A 9.2%
$TOL 7.5%

Some implied moves for earnings next week->

​

$NVDA 11.2%
$SNOW 19.6%
$ZM 21.7%
$BABA 9.5%
$COST 8.8%
$ULTA 9.9%
$MRVL 11.5%
$WDAY 11.4%
$ZS 17.3%
$ADSK 10.3%
$DELL 11.4%
$VMW 8.5%
$FTCH 33.3%
$MDT 4.4%
$M 15.6%
$DG 9.6%
$DLTR 12.5%
$BIDU 9.9%
$BURL 15.4%
$CGC 18.5%
$BIG 20.4%
$PDD 16.0%
$SPLK 12.2%
$WSM 15.9%
$BOX 11.9%
$NTNX 13.3%
$ELF 12.9%
$XPEV 13.3%
$AAP 12.5%
$NDSN 8.2%
$BBY 14.2%
$AZO 7.9%
$DKS 12.8%
$ANF 15.8%
$WOOF 12.2%
$RL 13.6%
$CSIQ 10.4%
$INTU 9.6%
$A 9.2%
$TOL 7.5%

Mrvl will give data centre networking and 5g IP. But also makes me wonder as they have mellanox already.

What do you think vmw brings to the table?

i'm thinking mrvl or vmw

the best video i found on the internet for options

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxmIvvROge4&list=PL2mif8cFz6v2oxmWUjFuuEuxVmwWzhCHU&index=9&t=3s

>*Google Cloud and VMware Expand Global Partnership to Help Enterprises Accelerate App Modernization and Cloud Transformation $GOOGL $VMW

^*Walter ^Bloomberg ^@DeItaone ^at ^2022-03-16 ^08:04:09 ^EDT-0400

I've been trading full time since 2016. I've had savagely devastating years as I've traded through presidential elections, trade wars with China, collapse of the interest rates, pandemic, and now war.

My biggest mistake, one that I will NEVER repeat is to trade too big. My largest position these days is 2% of my account. This way if something goes against me one position can't wipe me out.

Second mistake is trading underlyings that have terrible liquidity. Currently SPY is the gold standard with mostly penny wide bid/ask... Now take a look at something like MDT or VMW - untradeable. The liquidity has dried up making fills difficult anywhere near a decent mid-price. Hard to enter, even harder to exit... It's a trap.

Earnings are another thing I avoid if possible. The IV crush makes for a quick buck... but it can take 10+ winning earnings trades to make up for 1 mishap... not good odds there. FB, DOCU, ROKU, SHOP... these are all examples of why I don't trade through earnings.

Avoid the big indexes SPY, QQQ, IWM, & DIA. When I want short deltas RIGHT NOW, this is where I have to do it. It balances my deltas, but I fucking hate it. These are the metrics the world measures financial power. There will always be buying pressure to push these towards ATH. Unfortunately these are so BLOATED with the feds printing press that I can't be involved on the long side... and because of the institutional focus on pushing these higher my shorts always get run over with the rally... I am not the kind of person to "buy the dip". Trade as a LAST RESORT.

In the next week or so all my March positions have to roll to April. I have inverted positions, unrealized losses, positions that are stressing me with the wild swings. Currently I have about 50% of my capital allocated, and would like to scale that back to around 30%. IVR is too high, and even though my greeks are in line, that theta hasn't worked, nor will it until the week of expiration.

I have no confidence in the market, or my trades... but I make them anyway because this is what I chose to do with my brain, money, and time.

​

>

“You miss one hundred percent of the shots you don't take.”

―

Wayne Gretzky

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Here are some predicted moves After earnings are released. This is not the volatility of the stock, just a prediction based on past moves.

|Symbol Company |Earning Date |Predicted after earnings| |-------------------------|---------------|:----------------------:| |LCID Lucid Group Inc |02/21 After | 23% | |APA APA |02/21 After | 2% | |WMB Williams Co |02/21 After | 2% | |TNDM Tandem Diabetes.. |02/22 After | 9% | |TDOC Teladoc |02/22 After | 7% | |EXAS Exact Sciences |02/22 After | 7% | |PANW Palo Alto Netwo.. |02/22 After | 7% | |RNG RingCentral |02/22 After | 6% | |SPCE Virgin Galactic.. |02/22 After | 5% | |CZR Caesars Enterta.. |02/22 After | 4% | |RIG Transocean |02/22 After | 4% | |MOS Mosaic Co |02/22 After | 4% | |TOL Toll Brothers |02/22 After | 4% | |RRC Range Resources |02/22 After | 3% | |M Macy's |02/22 before | 6% | |FLR Fluor |02/22 before | 5% | |HL Hecla Mining Co.. |02/22 before | 4% | |HD Home Depot |02/22 before | 2% | |MDT Medtronic |02/22 before | 2% | |HSBC HSBC Holdings |02/22 before | 2% | |ROOT Root Inc |02/23 After | 14% | |LMND Lemonade |02/23 After | 12% | |RVLV Revolve Group I.. |02/23 After | 11% | |SKLZ Skillz |02/23 After | 9% | |FUBO fuboTV |02/23 After | 9% | |OLED Universal Displ.. |02/23 After | 9% | |NTAP NetApp |02/23 After | 6% | |CLOV Clover Health I.. |02/23 After | 6% | |EBAY Ebay |02/23 After | 5% | |BKNG Booking Holding.. |02/23 After | 5% | |AHT Ashford Hospita.. |02/23 After | 4% | |CTRA |02/23 After | 2% | |JMIA Jumia Technolog.. |02/23 before | 13% | |OSTK Overstock |02/23 before | 11% | |LL Lumber Liquidat.. |02/23 before | 10% | |SSYS Stratasys |02/23 before | 8% | |CSTM Constellium |02/23 before | 6% | |CLVS Clovis Oncology |02/23 before | 6% | |TJX TJX Companies |02/23 before | 3% | |PBR Petroleo Brasil.. |02/23 before | 3% | |LOW Lowe's |02/23 before | 3% | |HFC Hollyfrontier |02/23 before | 3% | |HLF Herbalife |02/23 After | 6% | |BHC Bausch Health C.. |02/23 Before | 6% | |NKTR Nektar Therapeu.. |02/24 After | 6% | |SQ Square Inc |02/24 After | 6% | |ENDP Endo Internatio.. |02/24 Before | 7% | |LI Li Auto |02/24 Before | 6% | |VMW VMware |02/24 Before | 6% |

CRWD, VMW, CTXS.

VMW

VMW,LCID, and FORM

Primarily due to the wild market swings. I want to keep my available buying power sidelined to use in defense of existing positions. Just yesterday I had to roll down many calls, then later that afternoon roll up many puts. Most of my trades are on both sides of the market (calls and puts) so adding new positions when the market moves +/-5% intraday isn't my style.

NASDAQ had a ~700 point swing intraday, DOW had a ~1000 point swing intraday... at no point did I ever feel like there was a trade to put on. Option bid/ask were wide, fills were slow, short delta positions were not offsetting longs b/c of the IVR spike. Many factors.

/VX is always on my watchlist, it's a good indicator that option premium is rich or cheap. IVR on individual equities is a good check as well; above 20 I will sell premium, but over 60 I tend to pass. Anything below 20, it's debit spreads and calendars. I also close premium positions when the IVR drops below 15 (win or lose I'm out).

As for qualitative, the number 1 factor is liquidity. I want an underlying to have millions in daily volume, a tight bid/ask option price, and 10K open interest around ATM contracts. A poor liquidity example of an interesting play for me is VMW (VMWare). I like the price, product, etc, but it's illiquid with >$.50 bid/ask. I can put in an offer to sell a contract at the mid price, and it will sit all day and not get filled. Now what happens when the market is going wild? Those markets get even wider... When I want delta's, I want them RIGHT NOW, not at the end of the day.

Hope that helps, Good luck.

Buying VMW puts

That's for startups.

You don't know what you're talking about.

Even if not vested, the employee still owns their RSU's. At a publicly traded company that value is known, not nebulous. If a company is bought out for cash, the stock no longer exists and thus must be paid in cash when the stock ceases to exist.

Period.

The Dell EMC merger was a great example of this. EMC ceased to exist so all RSU's were paid out at the time of closing. However, EMC also owned $VMW, which was a stock not disappearing, so Dell had to issue tracking stock to all employees to account for that. I don't remember the breakdown, but it was publicly revealed. Think the ticker was DVMT or something, not sure if it still exists

Thanks for the input. I have about 6% of my taxable invested in CIBR, so not really a big play. But yes, will keep watching CSCO, ACN, PANW, CRWD, JNPR, CHKP, VMW... I probably should've allocated this money to CSCO (which is approximately 8% of my portfolio.) But still learning about diversification and her dreaded partner, diWORSE-ification... Wow... Leidos (LDOS) is looking VERY promising... And returning a dividend... hmmmm

I also forgot one other point. Throughout the 90’s and early 2000’s I worked for a company with a pension plan.

So based on planning early in my career that pension should have taken care of 1/3 of my retirement needs. Savings only needed to VMW over 1/3, SSI was the rest. Well that Fortune 500 company was bought out. I was laid off and I haven’t had a pension since.

They used to refer to that as the “three legged stool” of retirement planning. And for the majority of folks one leg got kicked out from under then.

I was vested, so I was entitled, but my benefits were essentially frozen with 15 years of service. I was offered a buyout and up to that point the pension buyout was around 100K. So I took it and rolled it over into my 401K. Why? It was only projected to grow at 2.5 % or something like that. I figured I could grow it more on my own.

I’m over a million and I’m 55. But some of it was luck, sticking to being invested even when markets were down and dollar cost averaging over decades. I never really put away more then 15% of my salary. It’s just been slow and steady wins the race.