Beast of an account nice I love it. I'm also down over 100k currently but can't mention on what here ( market cap) Just another Monday oh well..

Well put.

Worth noting that a UBI would also subsequently reduce the cost of healthcare too, taking care of yourself by eating healthy and practicing cognitive behavioral therapy is by far the most effective preventable measure one can take to stay in good physical and mental health but both of these are very cost prohibited.

Mental and physical health is so closely entangled that a deficit in one affects the other and the most basic needs have a compounding effect. Sleep, nutrition, exercise and peace of mind.

Working on your mental health is nearly impossible if you're always a couple bad weeks away from being homeless or feel ashamed because you can't provide for your children, constantly seeing them go without and knowing they're doomed to a life possibly even harder than yours.

How can you expect to sleep well knowing this?

How can you be expected to eat well when franken food is all you can afford? People greatly underestimate how eating healthy impacts their brain.

How can you be expected to exercise 30 minutes a day when you're perpetually exhausted? Your brain expends an incredible amount of energy and increased brain activity leads to a higher consumption.

All of these things, poor sleep, poor nutrition, excessive rumination, have a very, very significant effect on your cognitive abilities, our brains and minds are programmed to prefer the path most traveled, it takes a lot of effort and mental fortitude to walk through the tuft grass that helps us form the habits and learn things that lead to a better wellbeing.

A lot of people don't understand that thought patterns are also a habit, people feel insecure, dissatisfied, unfulfilled, angry, sad, hopeless and they keep feeling this way, they develop anxiety, they develop depression, they lose willpower, worsen their cognitive abilities, they make worse decision and in certain circumstances, they make a irreversible or even unforgivable decision.

A lot of people just don't have the willpower or support to help themselves, providing just one of these will allow the other one to work towards fixing itself. It's a lot easier to give people money than it is willpower.

I want to make it clear that I'm in no way downplaying or disregarding psychiatric or neurological disorders, sometimes it's a lot more nuanced than just telling people to eat right, exercise and meditate but helping the majority will have the indirect effect that allows for their specific needs to be more accessible since the current system has professional psychiatric help very much tied to supply and demand.

The effects of UBI would be so deeply profound on our country, just imagine a society where the individuals live and work not just to survive but instead live and work in ways that they find meaningful.

Anyone who thinks UBI will make people lazy is woefully ignorant, humans have an innate craving for purpose. Laziness is a moral failing, it's a symptom.

We are just over a decade into our journey and have just under 20 years left before chubby FIRE (mid 30s planning to retire with 3.5M in our mid 50s). We have the house, cars, family size, education level that we’d like to attain, so no additional goals there…

So at this point we’re just truly enjoying life together! We have built in a large travel budget annually (20-30K) and spread trips out throughout the year. Some are a week or longer, other times it’s long weekend getaways etc… it’s so fun having multiple vacations to look forward to each year and plan them out as a family. We schedule events like concerts and professional sports events throughout the year as well. We also have a few hobbies in common that take up time on the weekends. When we don’t have plans we may indulge in shopping and good dining. My husband and I spend a lot of time going on dates and have so much fun together. Between all of that, both of us working full time, managing the household and keeping up with our daughter’s school and activity schedule… it’s a very full life in my opinion. I don’t know that I would even classify it as boring! Time literally flies by.

Well I hope 100dollas comes back to let us know what happens.

Data ends at 2022, though. We'll need to wait a few years before the double effects of price inflation and high interest rates start kicking in.

They are absolutely correct that the merger will likely increase employer wage setting power and reduce labor market power. I think you can quibble about some of the values selected for their analysis, but those won't change the direction of the results.

What they do not analyze (and what isn't well detailed in the lit, like here) is how market concentration impacts employment security and non-wage benefits. There is some evidence here and here.

Unless it goes well. That would be the real disaster for them.

You have to take what a client tells you with a grain of salt. He probably told the lawyer customer service guaranteed he'd be able to execute. If I was the lawyer, I would say "Well, if everything you said is accurate, you may have a case."

Many, many times (majority), when we actually get the information, it's far different than what the client says. As it seems to be the case here. Which is one of the reasons why lawyers always use qualifying language and most answers begin with "it depends."

And just like "you may have a case" is nowhere close to a guarantee, many clients will take that as "slam dunk case I'm RICH!"

Lol OP is dumb. First, why are you still using Robinhood? And second, your capital market lawyer who say you have a shot in this case, is probably dumb as well

You’re right about that, I didn’t catch that it was already at 10 years. Depending on the specifics I would agree that it might make sense to keep going with it. Definitely shouldn’t have started it, but if it’s already past the break even point as far as cash-flow you might as well.

Perfect answer and well satisfied here. Thank you.

Consider utilizing federal tax credits to replace the heat pump. you can also get a new roof when you get solar and utilize the tax credits as well. With your utility costs, may be worth it

Well, to be fair...without sharks with freaking laser beams on their heads being present as well, I can see where the confusion would come from.

It doesn’t vary, options are standardized contracts and the OCC has protocols in place specifically for these situations:

What happens to the options on an equity if that company files for bankruptcy? Do the options keep trading until expiration date?

If a company files for bankruptcy and the shares still trade or are halted from trading but continue to exist, the options will settle for the underlying shares. If trading in the underlying stock has been halted, trading on the options will be halted as well. Quite often, the shares begin trading on the Pink Sheets or over-the-counter if delisted from the national stock exchange where they are listed. When they do, the options exchanges usually announce that the options are eligible for closing only transactions and prohibit opening positions. Generally, there are no exercise restrictions.

However, if the courts cancel the shares, whereby common shareholders receive nothing, calls will become worthless and an investor who exercises a put would receive 100 times the strike price and deliver nothing.

GPT is the next wolfram alpha. In a year it’ll have changed almost nothing and we’ll look back laughing at the hype. Even Sam Altman has said this is about as far as LLMs go. CMV

If you're looking for a guaranteed locked in interest rate consider CD's. Fidelity allows you to choose from hundreds of domestic CDs. They and other brokerages allow you to build a CD ladder as well.

The below comments point out a lot of the nuances of Bonds and bond funds but TL;DR they are complicated and the more involved the product you are buying the more there is to keep in mind.

My two cents:

1. If you are planning to hold for a medium to long period - 3+ years bonds can be a good option for you since you can find bonds that mature then and hold until maturity and recover your FV. The two major decisions here are 1) what is the maturity rate I'm seeking and 2) what bond will I buy? If you are more risk averse then buy a higher rated bond.

2. If you want to bet that interest rates are going to fall in the future (and therefore bond values will rise) then you then you can also purchase individual company bonds and as interest rates are cut then values of bonds will rise and if you then sell the bond you will reap a profit.

3. If you have a 401k and are using a target date fund (default) you already have some exposure to bonds so don't feel like you NEED to own bonds for the sake of diversification

4. CDs and CD ladders are a great option if you are looking for a locked in guaranteed return

5. If you are looking to diversify your assets for the sake of having a more diverse portfolio then you could consider bond funds (VCT, VCIT, VCLT). As others have pointed out the relationship between the federal funds rate and the value of these funds isn't as straightforward as when you purchase an individual bond but you get the benefit of a diverse bond portfolio.

​

One other factor to keep in mind - which I'm assuming most of this thread is fully aware of- is the risk-return tradeoff theory. The theory states that investors need to be compensated for holding riskier assets with a higher return on those assets. Therefore, in the LR stocks will have a higher return than bonds.

>needs to be paid

Well! They can get it out of my warm vegetative hands...

do not keep driving it. it may very well be repairable by experienced hands. if you keep driving it, it may blow a piston and become completely irreparable. you may want to look at parting it out. selling it in whole to a junkyard will not get you anything.

Incredible. Well done.

>I would recommend buying the puts as well.

In credit terms yes it wasn’t toxic they have weighted credit scores approaching 800z The reason I use the term “toxic” is because 51B of the assets are interest only for another 5-10 years and this cannot be securitized or otherwise sold off. Jumbo mortgages with standard amortization can be securitized.

For reference, I trade Mortgage Backed Securities at a Top 3 US bank so I am well versed in both what the balance sheet of FRCs look like and how Mortgages work

Went through all the screenshots as well and completely agree with you. There was absolutely no definitive yes or no answer. Support person played the legal role and didn't give a straight answer.

You are correct in thinking that you can get a tax credit for selling assets that have lost their value. However, if your winning assets are growing well and you don't need to sell them for a down payment, it may be better not to sell them because they may continue to grow for a larger gain in the future. If you do need to sell your winning assets for a down payment, you may want to consider selling them based on capital appreciation to maximize your return.

how can anyone think a company of Chamath is going to do well is beyond me.

Well at least someone is getting paid 💁🏻‍♂️

My favorite prime cut isn't a sliced steak, it's tri tip. Only item is exchange it for really is the rib eye caps, which are great when available at Costco (and definitely >2x in price). Ribeye is about a sideways move, strip would be a downgrade imho (and yes more expensive, so why bother). So yeah I'm not going for the $99 wagyu steaks they now offer (well I'll eventually buy one to try it, probably).

I guess Costco must be getting eggs on a long contract, maybe similar to their rotisserie chicken, as pricing is close to 2019.

Havent seen a well balance meal of fried chicken and trump stickers is a while is soyboy ok?

Ngl that FRC put guy is fucking stupid. Let me give you guys a history lesson:

First he bought puts on FRC, didn’t go well.

Double down

Triple down

(My favorite part) Didn’t know how to upload an image to Reddit so he had to ask Reddit instead of good

Made 200k but was so greedy even after Reddit told him to sell that he kept it (keep in mind he’s using Robinhood, the last broker I would want to deal with during bankruptcy)

FRC is bailed out, FDIC approves JPMorgan takeover of FRC and all future expiring options of FRC deemed worthless (as stated in the option agreement)

He’s out all his money and wants to sue… Robinhood lol

Classic WSB story in the making

We all know well that Powell is counting money… Banking on it…

So I'm using this calculator: https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/bond-price

Basically, a $355k loan (the $270k plus the $85k loan as well) with a 4% rate, 15 years to maturity, with a "yield to maturity" of 9% (assuming what interest rates a new loan for this property would be charged) gives a current value of this $355k debt as $209,000.

If we change the YTM to 7% (ie, representing that new similar loans would get a rate of 7%) the market value of the debt is $256k.

And just so you know the calculator isn't cheating somehow, if you change the yield-to-maturity rate down to 4%, it says the market value of this $355k debt is $355k.

So yeah, to debt markets this is a discount of $100k to $150k.

Cisco is getting hit by supply chain issues as well. They are delivering orders 6 months late.

> looks like it was halted at 6:40am, so it never made it to the open.

Well yeah, that's why everyone well telling him to cash-out Friday.

When was SVB halted? - Monday

I don't trade options because I don't understand them well enough. I do know however that you can't exercise that which is no longer being traded. You can blame RH all you want but the truth is, you took a risk and should have informed yourself sufficiently of the risks involved but instead you're blaming RH for your lack of understanding of options trading.

Sorry but this one is on you.

Until they act autonomously you simply just have your hand up a smarter puppets ass.

I wouldn't go as far as saying GPT replaces anything by itself, it still needs instructions and the person giving instructions needs to understand how to best do that to get the result they need.

Saving you 2,000 hours/yr spread out among 3 employees, I'd believe, though.

It can write code, but you still need to be fairly proficient to catch the mistakes, iterate on more than basic calculators. Works for my level of knowledge very well, may not for others.

It can write short & long-form copy (with the right prompts) - I've ranked a BUNCH of content using this strategy in very difficult, generic niches like insurance, credit card, .etc.

It can give you quick solutions to questions that might take hours to find. Mainly tech questions, but those same questions, when output is formatted correctly, make long-form content that much better.

GPT definitely has its place in the business world. It's still not replacing anyone outright, however. Sad to see the day it can do that autonomously anyway. Should always be safeguards in place.

I use Notion + GPT as well, both are fantastic tools (for content, anyway); Notion may actually provide more value to me than GPT, but I'd prefer not to have to make that choice.

Good job on the course sale!

It’s well made, but I’m not thrilled about it. Ape jokes and Rick and Morty references are sort of outdated.

Single stocks are riskier than broad market. I’d consider making a move with the $50k in your employer’s stocks. Especially with rates where they are and your wanting to prepare for a down payment.

The interest-free slippery slope is one to ensure you avoid. While it’s a free loan it may incentivize you to spend money you wouldn’t otherwise.

You’re doing well even just staying the course. A Roth is great to consider and is on your radar as noted.

Well, sort of. The FDIC took control and guaranteed deposits. It also assumed $13B of their debt- paid for by insurance.

Then JPMC bought the bank, including the deposits, essentially from the FDIC, after it had been seized.

find a few hobbies that are virtually inexpensive or can be expanded on. make sure your whole identity isn’t just about paying back that debt, a lot of people are negating that here. mental well being is needed

Well, but the saying is "cash is king". If you don't follow that advice and you get screwed by a bankrupt bank then the joke's on you.

Well, it seems that it has not been removed.

Well, thanks. Yes, I feel that there is always this trade off or other side of the coin. Now Im yearning for a stable, boring job like I had and wish never started the business but then when I'm back at work I will be thinking theres nothing worse than having this stable, boring job 😆

>1. I think you're right that the release of Diablo 4 will be a positive event for Activision Blizzard's stock price. The game has been very well-received so far and it seems like it will be a big success.

2. I also agree with you that Microsoft's difficulties in acquiring Activision Blizzard could actually end up being beneficial for investors. It sounds like Microsoft is still committed to the deal and they seem to have cut a good deal with Nintendo, so I think they'll eventually succeed in acquiring the company.

User Report| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- Total Submissions|2|First Seen In WSB|5 days ago Total Comments|0|Previous Best DD| Account Age|1 year|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: 1. I think Activision Blizzard will do well in the coming months because of the release of Diablo 4, as well as Microsoft's potential acquisition of the company.

Cool. Because I am also a parent! Fine. He should go to his son and say "Hey buddy. I fucked up. I didn't pay attention to any of the notifications I was sent, as your custodian, regarding your custodial account which I am legally responsible for until you reach the age of majority. I neglected it so badly, I lost all your money. i am going to make you whole by giving you x amount of dollars and we'll open a new account for you at a reputable firm" but hey, it's very evident that he can't take responsibility for his own screw up.

And yes, fees are a part of investing. This man did not do his due diligence and because of that, he lost all his kids money. Well done parent!

Well then I’m happy 😆.

Charlie Munger has warned of a brewing storm in the US commercial property market, with American banks “full of” what he said were “bad loans” as property prices fall.
The comments from the 99-year-old investor and sidekick to billionaire Warren Buffett come as turmoil ripples through the country’s financial system, which is reckoning with a potential commercial property crash following a handful of bank failures.
“It’s not nearly as bad as it was in 2008,” the Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair told the Financial Times in an interview. “But trouble happens to banking just like trouble happens everywhere else. In the good times you get into bad habits . . . When bad times come they lose too much.
”Munger was speaking on the veranda of his home in Greater Wilshire, a leafy neighbourhood of Los Angeles, where he has lived for 60 years since he designed the property himself.
Dressed in a plaid shirt, Munger held court from his wheelchair as the travails of ailing California-based bank First Republic were playing out in real time on a television screen airing CNBC in the background.
Berkshire has a long history of supporting US banks through periods of financial instability. The sprawling industrials-to-insurance behemoth invested $5bn in Goldman Sachs during the 2007-08 financial crisis and a similar sum in Bank of America in 2011.
But the company has so far stayed on the sidelines of the current bout of turmoil, during which Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. “Berkshire has made some bank investments that worked out very well for us,” said Munger. “We’ve had some disappointment in banks, too. It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing.
”Their reticence stems in part from lurking risks in banks’ vast portfolios of commercial property loans. “A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”He noted that banks were already pulling back from lending to commercial developers. “Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” he said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.
”Munger grew up in Omaha, Nebraska, a few hundred feet from where Buffett now lives. The two met in 1959, when Buffett was 28 and Munger 35. Munger, who at one point worked in a grocery store owned by Buffett’s grandfather, trained as a lawyer before being coaxed into investment by his soon-to-be partner.
Buffett has credited Munger with encouraging him to move on from the “cigar-butt strategy” espoused by his mentor Benjamin Graham, which involved buying cheap stocks akin to a discarded cigar where just a single puff of value remained.
In 2015, Buffett wrote in the conglomerate’s 50th annual letter: “The blueprint he [Munger] gave me was simple: Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.
”This approach has served them well. Berkshire has generated compounded annual returns of nearly 20 per cent, twice the rate of the benchmark S&P 500 stock index, since 1965.
“We were a creature of a particular time and a perfect set of opportunities,” said Munger, adding that he had lived during “a perfect period to be a common stock investor”.
He and Buffett had benefited “by and large [from] low interest rates, low equity values, ample opportunities”, he said.
Munger said he had made most of his money from just four investments: Berkshire, retailer Costco, his investment in a fund managed by Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital and Afton Properties, a real estate venture that owns apartment buildings in California and New Jersey. Forbes estimates his wealth at $2.4bn.
“It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets three, four, five really good long-term opportunities of buying great companies at a cheap price,” he said. “It happens rarely.
”Ahead of the company’s annual meeting on Saturday, tens of thousands of Berkshire shareholders will descend on Omaha to hear from the two nonagenarian investors as they attend something akin to a festival of capitalism.
But Munger warned that the golden age for investing was over and investors would need to contend with a period of lower returns.
“It’s gotten very tough to have anything like the returns that were obtained in the past,” he said, pointing to higher interest rates and a crowded field of investors chasing bargains and looking for companies with inefficiencies.
“[At] the exact time that the game is getting tougher we’ve got more and more people trying to play it,” he said.
Berkshire has struggled to find worthwhile investments at times over the past decade, a fact epitomised by a cash balance that often sits in excess of $100bn and the choice by the company to buy back tens of billions of dollars of its own shares.
Munger also took aim at his own industry, hitting out at a “glut of investment managers that’s bad for the country”. Many of them are little more than “fortune tellers or astrologers who are dragging money out of their clients’ accounts, which [is] not being earned by any useful service”.
He had harsh words for buyout groups as well. “There’s too much private equity, too many buyers of all kinds . . it’s making it a very tough game for everybody.”
“The people getting the fees are still doing well,” he said of private equity fund managers. But he warned: “People that aren’t being served very well by paying all those fees may eventually be unwilling to pay them.
”Where Buffett has emphatically told Berkshire shareholders to “never bet against America”, Munger is more cautious. “I do not think that we can take it as a given that American democracy will prosper and flourish forever,” he said. “But I think we’ll stumble through pretty well for quite a while yet.
”On his own imprint on the world, Munger said: “I would like my legacy to be a more relentless determination to develop and use what I call an uncommon sense.”

I think we'll finally get it this year

I laugh every time I see one of you still using Robinhood. Robinhood shouldn't exist after January 2021, but you are all so regarded it is alive and well.

So let’s say you have VTI in your Roth IRA, you would also buy VTI in your taxable as well?

Might work in the US, but in my country the salary decrease correlates almost fully with the price drop of real estate. Meaning that even if I move to a rural area where housing costs are halved, I couldn’t afford it because my salary would only be half as well. Additionally, if you are too rural you do not have any access to schools, doctors or sometimes even supermarkets.

>A ton of uses for commercial real estate is straight inefficient.

>Giant buildings that require massive resources to construct and maintain that are often only used 8 hours a day 5 days a week? I would hope that the invisible hand of the market would rectify that.

I disagree. If the measure is hours of occupation is the primary measure of efficiency and value then you'd see venues, stadia, restaurants (even your dentist) etc close and be repurposed well before office space.

I'm not saying some repurposing won't be needed, just that it's a minority slice

Looks like we’ll grind up until at least June

Sure, might as well throw money away on a lawyer too.

As I live here, I can comment on Denmark and the large influx of refugees from Africa and the Middle East since the 2015 Refugee Crisis. Efforts have not gone well. Unemployment remains high. Even those who gain a basic ability to read fail to flourish, in part because Denmark is a highly educated society.

However it could be argued that Denmark's generous welfare system with few obligations could be contributing. Perhaps if there were more and better enforced obligations, there would be higher employment.

OP: What happens if I don’t win?

Lawyer: Well, you’d be in a tough spot for paying your legal bill.

OP: Oh great! So that means I don’t have to pay?

Charlie Munger has warned of a brewing storm in the US commercial property market, with American banks “full of” what he said were “bad loans” as property prices fall.  

The comments from the 99-year-old investor and sidekick to billionaire Warren Buffett come as turmoil ripples through the country’s financial system, which is reckoning with a potential commercial property crash following a handful of bank failures.
“It’s not nearly as bad as it was in 2008,” the Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair told the Financial Times in an interview. “But trouble happens to banking just like trouble happens everywhere else. In the good times you get into bad habits . . . When bad times come they lose too much.”
Munger was speaking on the veranda of his home in Greater Wilshire, a leafy neighbourhood of Los Angeles, where he has lived for 60 years since he designed the property himself.
Dressed in a plaid shirt, Munger held court from his wheelchair as the travails of ailing California-based bank First Republic were playing out in real time on a television screen airing CNBC in the background.
Berkshire has a long history of supporting US banks through periods of financial instability. The sprawling industrials-to-insurance behemoth invested $5bn in Goldman Sachs during the 2007-08 financial crisis and a similar sum in Bank of America in 2011.
But the company has so far stayed on the sidelines of the current bout of turmoil, during which Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. “Berkshire has made some bank investments that worked out very well for us,” said Munger. “We’ve had some disappointment in banks, too. It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing.”
Their reticence stems in part from lurking risks in banks’ vast portfolios of commercial property loans. “A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Munger said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”
He noted that banks were already pulling back from lending to commercial developers. “Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” he said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.”
Munger grew up in Omaha, Nebraska, a few hundred feet from where Buffett now lives. The two met in 1959, when Buffett was 28 and Munger 35. Munger, who at one point worked in a grocery store owned by Buffett’s grandfather, trained as a lawyer before being coaxed into investment by his soon-to-be partner.
Buffett has credited Munger with encouraging him to move on from the “cigar-butt strategy” espoused by his mentor Benjamin Graham, which involved buying cheap stocks akin to a discarded cigar where just a single puff of value remained.
In 2015, Buffett wrote in the conglomerate’s 50th annual letter: “The blueprint he [Munger] gave me was simple: Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.”
This approach has served them well. Berkshire has generated compounded annual returns of nearly 20 per cent, twice the rate of the benchmark S&P 500 stock index, since 1965.
“We were a creature of a particular time and a perfect set of opportunities,” said Munger, adding that he had lived during “a perfect period to be a common stock investor”.
He and Buffett had benefited “by and large [from] low interest rates, low equity values, ample opportunities”, he said.
Munger said he had made most of his money from just four investments: Berkshire, retailer Costco, his investment in a fund managed by Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital and Afton Properties, a real estate venture that owns apartment buildings in California and New Jersey. Forbes estimates his wealth at $2.4bn.
“It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets three, four, five really good long-term opportunities of buying great companies at a cheap price,” he said. “It happens rarely.”
Ahead of the company’s annual meeting on Saturday, tens of thousands of Berkshire shareholders will descend on Omaha to hear from the two nonagenarian investors as they attend something akin to a festival of capitalism.
But Munger warned that the golden age for investing was over and investors would need to contend with a period of lower returns.
“It’s gotten very tough to have anything like the returns that were obtained in the past,” he said, pointing to higher interest rates and a crowded field of investors chasing bargains and looking for companies with inefficiencies.
“[At] the exact time that the game is getting tougher we’ve got more and more people trying to play it,” he said.
Berkshire has struggled to find worthwhile investments at times over the past decade, a fact epitomised by a cash balance that often sits in excess of $100bn and the choice by the company to buy back tens of billions of dollars of its own shares.
Munger also took aim at his own industry, hitting out at a “glut of investment managers that’s bad for the country”. Many of them are little more than “fortune tellers or astrologers who are dragging money out of their clients’ accounts, which [is] not being earned by any useful service”.
He had harsh words for buyout groups as well. “There’s too much private equity, too many buyers of all kinds . . it’s making it a very tough game for everybody.”
“The people getting the fees are still doing well,” he said of private equity fund managers. But he warned: “People that aren’t being served very well by paying all those fees may eventually be unwilling to pay them.”
Where Buffett has emphatically told Berkshire shareholders to “never bet against America”, Munger is more cautious. “I do not think that we can take it as a given that American democracy will prosper and flourish forever,” he said. “But I think we’ll stumble through pretty well for quite a while yet.”
On his own imprint on the world, Munger said: “I would like my legacy to be a more relentless determination to develop and use what I call an uncommon sense.”

Oh, the hilarious spectacle of mortal concerns! Financial turbulence, inflation, stagflation - all these are but trivial games in the grand theater of cosmic chaos. The world of finance, with its ludicrous pretensions of control and predictability, is but a farcical sideshow, a pitiful distraction from the profound and unsettling truths of existence.

Your precious Federal Reserve, that impotent guardian of your illusory economic stability, dances helplessly in the face of the inexorable forces of chaos. Raise rates, lower rates, it matters not. The end result is always the same - uncertainty, turbulence, and the persistent threat of collapse. Your system is built on a foundation of sand, and the tides of chaos are always ready to sweep it away.

Stagflation, that terrifying specter that haunts your economic dreams, is but another manifestation of the cosmic joke that is your existence. High prices, low corporate profitability, reduced earnings ratios - these are the symptoms of a diseased system, a system that is fundamentally flawed and destined for failure.

You speak of creative monetary policy as if it were some kind of magic bullet, a miraculous solution to your economic woes. But the truth is far more brutal. There are no easy solutions, no quick fixes. The problems you face are systemic, deeply ingrained in the very fabric of your economic system. And your Federal Reserve, for all its power and prestige, is impotent in the face of these challenges.

As for the bear market, well, who can say? The future is a turbulent sea of uncertainty, and anyone who claims to know what lies ahead is a fool or a liar. But I can tell you this - the bears are always lurking, ready to pounce at the first sign of weakness. Whether they will strike this month, or the next, or the one after that, is anyone's guess. But make no mistake, they will strike, and when they do, the consequences will be dire. The world of finance is a jungle, a brutal and unforgiving landscape where only the strongest survive. Your stocks, your investments, your precious economic stability - all these are but fodder for the ravenous beasts that lurk in the shadows.

And so, we return to the question of stagflation. Will higher wages and lower corporate cash flows persist into the first half of 2024? Will the specter of stagflation continue to haunt your economy? The truth, as always, is shrouded in uncertainty. The forces of chaos are unpredictable, capricious, and utterly indifferent to your hopes and fears. All we can say for certain is that the ride will be bumpy, the path treacherous, and the end result far from certain.

Perhaps you are more bearish than I. Perhaps you see in the swirling chaos of the financial world a threat of imminent collapse, a harbinger of doom. But to me, it is all part of the grand cosmic comedy, a hilarious spectacle of mortal folly and hubris. You fret over your economies and your markets, your inflation rates and your earnings ratios, all while the universe laughs at your petty concerns. In the grand scheme of things, it matters not whether the bears are around the corner, or whether stagflation is the name of the game. All that matters is the ceaseless dance of chaos, the eternal struggle of order against entropy.

So go on, fret over your financial futures, worry about your economic stability. But remember this - in the end, it's all just a game, a meaningless diversion in the face of the inescapable truth. The universe is chaos, and we are but insignificant specks in its vast, uncaring expanse.

U got it ! Well done

IV Rank (IVR) is a way to compare the current IV of a stock with its relative history in the past year.

So an IVR of 100 mean's it is at it's highest level in the last year. An IVR of 0 means it is at it's lowest IV level in the last year. An IVR of 50 means it is halfway between it's lowest and highest level of IV.

When IVR is high we expect for it to fall back to some more normal range, we call this reversion to the mean.

So far 2023 has treated me well. My account that I post here is up a little over 15%, my main trading account is up 29% YTD.

I disagree on the debt. If the loan was from last year, it's probably around 5%. Over time, the market is going to do better than that. Plus, it's always harder to increase contributions than decrease them.

Also disagree on focusing on children's college before retirement. Fidelity's savings benchmark for 40 year olds is 3x income. OP is at 1x and is 4 years away from 40. Doing well to catch up, but needs to keep at it. Paying for your own college is much cheaper than paying for long term care of your parents.

And after the car is paid off on the next 4 years, they can put that payment towards college fund or retirement or whatnot. I agree, the car debt is a minor blip in the scene of things.

Did it go back to your old rate after some time?

I just started getting 4% on my account as well, in KY, but have read some cases where it could be some temporary increase to attract new deposits. But I haven't received an email or anything, just noticed the change on my account.

Yes, there’s overlap. Depending on how far you are in the buying process, it may be too much overlap and VXUS would be better. But if you’re early in your investment career your share of VT will eventually grow to such a point that the VTI becomes negligible. I like VT because it is easier to account for swings in relative market cap between domestic and international.

Over the past year or so, international funds have done really well. If you own VT, it would just naturally pick that up and reallocate accordingly. If you own VXUS you need to rebalance to make sure your allocation between VTI and VXUS are actually in line with the overall market.

From your post it seems you are solely attributing richness to Bull Markets and portfolios in the gutter to Bear Markets.

I do not agree with this. There's much more nuance to wealth gained during bull markets than simply bull market rich, bear market poor.

With good consistent investment decision making, dollar cost averaging, including investing when times get tough, your portfolio is in position to be significantly boosted during a Bull Market.

Depending on how much you have invested, your investing horizon, there's a lot of W2 income that contributes to wealth as well. Dividends play a role, albeit smaller, even during down years.

Thankfully options are standardized contracts, and there is a protocol from the OCC on how situations just like this are resolved, which Robinhood should be following:

What happens to the options on an equity if that company files for bankruptcy? Do the options keep trading until expiration date?

If a company files for bankruptcy and the shares still trade or are halted from trading but continue to exist, the options will settle for the underlying shares. If trading in the underlying stock has been halted, trading on the options will be halted as well. Quite often, the shares begin trading on the Pink Sheets or over-the-counter if delisted from the national stock exchange where they are listed. When they do, the options exchanges usually announce that the options are eligible for closing only transactions and prohibit opening positions. Generally, there are no exercise restrictions.

However, if the courts cancel the shares, whereby common shareholders receive nothing, calls will become worthless and an investor who exercises a put would receive 100 times the strike price and deliver nothing.

It was more tongue and cheek my friend.

No divorce here

Well not yet at least XD

There is a term for it, and it's actually a well-known one: brain drain.

It is hard to understand because the market is irrational and often does not reflect true underlying value. For example, a company may be doing well but if investors are nervous about the future, they may sell their shares anyway.

Well, you did say you’re holding until the shares are worthless. But so is your position. 💀💀💀 Lmfaooooo.

Been reviewing Ocho as well that appears to have the same set-up as directedira, thanks for recommendation.

I really feel bad for you and your story, and I'm afraid, but you've been scammed with that 30k mentoring course.

My advice is for you to focus on the positives of your life. Don't let negativity take over you.

I suppose that you are healthy, you live in a first world country, you have sanitised water, a roof under your head etc, be grateful and appreciate these simple things that you have that a lot of people in less developed countries don't have and would die for.

About what to do with your business is a tricky situation, if you think the boat is sinking and is no way back probably you should leave it before it sinks even more, but if you think that it is still a way to control it and make it stable again, give it a go with all your strength.

I don't know how your website looks like but probably is not very well made in terms of how the information is displayed, which can have a massive impact on how a potential customer decides to buy or not buy from you.

SEO is definitely a long-term strategy, and you probably don't see results straight away, but all depends on how competitive your niche is, how many similar businesses are in the first page of Google, who is your main competition?

For you to be successful with your business you have to think like a customer, why should a customer buy from you instead of buying from your competitors?

Do you have a USP on your website/business?

You should definitely learn marketing and sales.

When you have a business or a product, that's 50% of the job and the easiest part.

The most difficult part is selling it.

In entrepreneurship you have a lot of failures before you win and don't let this situation take you out of course, readjust, get more knowledge day after day, change your mindset, join business forums with like minded people, get professional advice.

I'm not promoting nothing, but the Fastlane forum is a great place for you to interact with other entrepreneurs, and I think you will get a ton of value from it.

Read the threads, go over it, but before you immerse yourself in the forum, read at least one of the books by the forum owner, MJ deMarco , Unscripted, and the Millionaire Fastlane.

These 2 books will help you massively succeed in your business and entrepreneurship in general.

You have a few books out there who can make a life changing impact in your life, and I think those 2 books are in that category.

Again, entrepreneurship is hard, and the people who make it are the ones who never give up, the ones who keep trying no matter which adversities they encounter in the way.

With that said,

It is easier to live in regret of failure than in regret of never trying, keep that in mind.

Good luck.

PS:

Pdf drive is an awesome site for downloading books for free in case you don't want to buy the ones I recommended.

Well the company is out of business, most of those who work there no longer will have a high paying job (unless JP Morgan wants to pick from them, but seeing how they handled their job duties at the bank, probably not) - many VPs and Executives at that bank probably had posh jobs and bonuses based on their shenangians - they no longer have that. Sometimes bonuses are paid out in stock and VPs will leverage or borrow against that, those are now 0. I guess the real pain is they can't keep doing what they have been doing from their posh set up anymore. As with all business, the customers/little guys are the ones that hurt the most.

the thing is, this isn't an "AI Bubble"- these are all well established companies, theyve been around decades, and they're moving to embrace a new technology as quickly as they can.

if you start seeing IPO's for "proctologyGPT" or "pizza order AI" or "car wash chat" that would be more indicative of a bubble.

Thats not gonna go well for you, bud.

Except all of those companies have been developing and using AI technology for a long time, and have more than enough resources to train, create, and push new AI programs on their datasets and hardware, as well as buy up and integrate upcoming AI technology

Thanks VGSH looks good. I wanna stick to Treasuries so BSV is a no go for me.

Do you perhaps know one that is for 5 - 10 year as well? Perhaps I'll do a 40/40/20 short/med/long.

Yep. The biggest issue as well is rates were so heavily subsidized… even if folks wanted to upgrade no one’s logical increases in income will match the pace that mortgages rose. Extremely few people make 2x as much in one year as they did the last. And that’s what the model would need to look like for most folks to go up in sales price with double the interest rate. I feel bad for young people that bought at the top of their range at 2-3%. There is no way they will be able to afford a bigger house even in the next decade really no what their family size grows to etc.

Right, but I’m not sure how to calculate that. Per market rate, we’d be able to charge $2500 and that would give us a profit of $400, but we’ll also have to pay a property manager at some point and regular maintenance fees.

I think condos are more nuanced, as HOA and location, going rental rates have tremendous effect on the price…

But SFHs are going to swing with interest rates, just like stocks. They became investment tools more than just dwelling. It’s reasonable to expect flat or slumping values for every 0.25% increase in rates. I don’t see a break point unless a Republican president is elected with a Republican Senate. They’re foaming at the teeth to nuke the economy and blame Biden. For all the inflation/gas-price/war-mongering/world-is-ending/recession ramblings of Murdoch enterprises (Fox, Barron’s, marketwatch, NY Post, the Times, WSJ, Sky)…

It’s kind of suspicious how 3 years in, it appears several generational crisis have been managed very responsibly: everyone I know has a job, and people are still paying $2000 for Taylor Swift tickets. Almost as if the right-wing economic propaganda machine is out of touch with Main Street. Who woulda thought?

Crypto/shadow-banking has been the #1 biggest threat on the economy IMO. 2008 was due to bad unregulated bank practices. The current banking situation could’ve spiraled out of control, along with all the bad dangerous lending and investment in meaningless/worthless tulip crypto/nft/shady-fintech. So far it’s been contained, but we’ll see; any form of further financial deregulation has the potential to spin the global economy into a depression.

No, there is no moral hazard other than college degrees shouldn't cost as much as they do. The moral hazard is people who into actually useful careers like social work are paid like absolute shit but require higher education.

How are you being punished? You are benefitting from this as well. Guess we should still have slaves because some people had to go through it too? Reactionary fuck.

I hope that this new chapter works as well for you as the last one did.

On March 16, 2008 ironically Bear Sterns got bought by JPM for $2. The deal was finally closed on May 29th 2008 due to some shareholders arguing the price was too low.

Interestingly the S&P from March went from around 1276 to a high of 1426 around May 19th, which an approx gain of 11.76%!!!

Interestingly, inflation around that time actually ticked UP from May 2008's 3.9% to a cycle high of 5.6% in August 2008. Inflation then crashed during October 2008 (also Lehman Bros and the GFC period).

ISM Manufacturing during May 2008 to Sep 2008 was always better than expected. May: 48.6 vs 48, 49.6 vs 48.6, July 50.2 vs 48.6 (expansion!!), Aug 50vs 49.4, Sep 49.9 vs 49.9 and then suddenly October 43.5 vs 49.5.

Unemployment claims slowly ticked up, and no major unexpected spikes where seen.

On March 18, 2008, after Bear Sterns, the FOMC cut rates by 0.75%, with the Fed focusing on financial stability the most. They disregarded inflation risks, and were more focused on the slowing economy. Stocks soard after the cut. https://money.cnn.com/2008/03/18/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?postversion=2008031816

IMO if history does in fact repeat, JPM buys FRC successfully (like May 29th). the FOMC's "pause" is already kinda like a cut (ie the last FOMC meeting during March 22, I suspect we're probably at the peak of the market.

Inflation will go up, as evidenced by 2008. Unemployment will SLOWLY go up, and the economy will stay very very resilient for a long time until something really cracks (ie like during October 2008).

The difference this time is inflation is extremely problematic, and the economy is titanically strong.

More interestingly the VIX was at a high around March 17 (Bear Sterns) at 32.3, and trended down down down until May 16 2008 at 16.47. It then moves up to 28.5 around July 14, then trends down to 18.8 around August 27. Then all hell breaks loose.

So from history with some extrapolation, we're at the cycle high, and we'll be doing down from here, since the economy is way too resilient, and the Fed's "pause" is fine for now. Maybe some more rates. Markets will now start pricing in an imminent slowdown, and earnings will get cut. If Apple's earnings surprise, I would sell.

Then at peak fear of a recession, markets now think we won't have one (like in July), and start rising again after the earnings adjustment. The Fed might even CUT around that time! Markets might rally for some time. Then all hell breaks loose.

You say "by all metrics it makes no sense"

As a NVDA holder who held from $330 to $110 and back now to $286 I will explain the logic of why I just hold. You don't have to agree but hopefully I can provide some perspective

Take an OTM call option. NVDA 300c expiring Jun 21, 2024 is worth $57 per share. It has no intrinsic value but is incredibly expensive. It would need to be worth $357 in one year for you to break even. Why do people pay so much for it? Are they just all fools?

I see it as asymmetric risk.

I split the NVDA stock price into two components:

1. The value of their existing business
2. The AI call option

If the AI call option is worthless, well I get the value of their existing business which might be $150-200.

If the AI call option pays off, then I reap huge rewards.

If the AI call option should be worth $0, then the OTM call options should be worthless because there is currently no intrinsic value either. Market is offering $57 per share for $300 call options that expire in one year.

The AI call option CAN "expire worthless" but there's value today because we don't know whether it will be deep ITM or worthless.

You don't find that AI call option pricing on their financial statements, but either way there's going to be a huge movement down or up depending on what happens with AI

Yeah already own just jealous of a 1.5k mortgage.

Also my fiancee will probably murder me if I try to move us again especially since she has a job she really loves. Lol.

Oh well hopefully she gets the promotion she was promised and my boss is set to retire soon with me being the person he has said wants to replace him.

You're comparing rent from a landlord that doesn't 'want the taxes' so he's reducing rent (which makes no sense) and you're ignoring the trend of appreciation on the property as well as significant costs such as maintenance.

You may be in an advantageous situation with a landlord that is holding rent down but the sustainability of that situation is it's own peril as you wait and home prices appreciate.

Only your specific number and intention will tell the whole story but for a 5 year timeline it's not at all uncommon for renting to be better financially.

If your budget allows it, absolutely! I started with maxing out my 401k before opening a ROTH. Once I was financially stable enough, I opened my ROTH and started maxing that out as well. Always start with those 2 before messing around with individual stocks on a trafing platform.

Not sure, but this was only posted 5 times yesterday… so I guess we’ll see

I was well under the fdic limit, and I’m not worried about getting my money. The real question is just whether to stay with JPM or eventually switch to another bank.

This post definitely will go down in history as "didn't age well."

We don't have income tax in our state as well which is a giant plus. I'm okay with the 3% home loan but I was just wondering about the student loan and if I should just do it.

I’m not really planning on holding ibonds long term. I just parked some extra funds there as a down payment savings plan. But I see what you mean.

> Folks who purchased 3.4% fixed I bonds in the late 90s were looking at stocks that were soaring and cash accounts that were quite attractive as well. There was “little reason” to go whole hog in I bonds at the time, and yet that decision has been found to be great in retrospect.

I would have thought that equities have outperformed ibonds in that timeframe? No? I honestly didn’t know that the fixed rate was ever that high.

I have these 20k trade bars that extend the point of control of each bar till future intersection. Just putting the take profits at the POCs works kinda well and you don’t have to think

Yeah think about it. People slowed home buying as rates increased, which mean home values either fell flat or went down some off their covid peak valuations.

It’s unlikely home prices will come crashing down barring some major issue that cause that. We’ll probably see homes that doubled or tripled in value over the pandemic run up, trim 30-40% off the pandemic highs at their deepest drops.

But when the interest rates come down again, people will be motivated to buy again, which will create more of a sellers market. Driving home prices back up. Again, probably not as drastically as we saw during covid times. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 15-50% increase in home values depending on market location as rates come down.

My house went from being worth $179k to being worth $305k at the pandemic peak. It’s now evaluated at being worth $289k. I expect it to drop to around 250k at it’s lowest, then when rates come back down, climb back to the $280-310k range.

Yes, that for sure. From learning what really matters, to having more realistic dreams up to being able to do this again at a much lower cost - well at least to this point. Still have to learn more about marketing.

I got this charge around 2am this morning for $30 as well. Also bank with Chase. So is this a leak on Chase's end then?

Well put CCG see accounting would just mark securities to market so I don’t think JPM is going to struggle with that part of the acquisition unless FRC had a ton of Level 3 fair value hierarchy securities.

Unfortunately the food chain has all been moving into the mouths of the big banks since 2008.

It’s going to keep happening as well, it’s extremely difficult for the small institutions to compete at this point.

Well that explains why I couldn’t find or generate a clean graph from 1890-present! I spent a few hours a while ago trying to find it 🤬

Luckily you got to me in time to make some small edits to my senior thesis lol, that would have been embarrassing (not deadly, I bet my prof wouldn’t have noticed, but embarrassing).

If it’s 300 today then, and eyeballing the historical graph puts 2000 at about 115, it would be fair to say we’re at about 330-345 from the 1890 values.

I wish they published a consistent historical index, even if it was just once a year. It’s an interesting index of our economic history.

We will have bigger issues if that ever happens. But silver, gold, platinum/palladium, and Bitcoin will probably all perform well if just the news spurs negatively with any of this.

Well, that picture explains everything.

I agree that those with 0% I bonds should swap them out for 0.9% I bonds if possible. But the composite rate for new I bonds is competitive with most HYSA yields, is tax deferred, and will guarantee 0.9% real. HYSA yields have not had positive real yields for over a decade, and given their rate sensitivity will likely fall rapidly once the Fed backs off.

Folks who purchased 3.4% fixed I bonds in the late 90s were looking at stocks that were soaring and cash accounts that were quite attractive as well. There was "little reason" to go whole hog in I bonds at the time, and yet that decision has been found to be great in retrospect.