I mean yeah people have to eat but they’re not the biggest grocer in the US. Wmt is twice as big without looking at general merchandise.
American Eagle and Gap both missed. The retail increasingly shows that the companies selling utterly bottom of the barrel merchandise for the poor (Dollar General/Dollar Tree) and higher end retailers (Nodstroms/Macy's etc.) are the only ones showing gains. Fuck the middle class (TGT/WMT/BURL/AEO/GAP/AMZN/KSS/DKS). Something tells me the poors will lose first before the rich. Maybe the 1% can prop up the entire economy soon?
Most of wsb put buyers, especially the retail put buyers started buying puts last week after WMT and Target.
They've been getting killed on either stocks going up or not down enough due to IV.
Because of the supply chain issues they put in massive orders for stuff that sold well in the past (they didn't want to risk empty shelves on those items). But because people are now wanting to get out they weren't looking to buy stuff like patio furniture for example - people bought enough of that while they were cocooning for the past two years.
So now they have an inventory glut on those items that are not selling.
Anecdotally I just got back from WMT and they have electric lawnmowers on clearance (I forget the brand but they blue and white ones). I think you're gonna see a lot of that at WMT, TGT for a while. And eventually that stuff will land at TJ Maxx, etc. Those discount stores are going to do well over this.
If you factor out the 'wrong inventory' on both TGT and WMT their numbers would've been massively better. It seems that its not so much a drop in spending as it is what people are buying.
To quote Indiana Jones... TGT and WMT chose poorly.
I bought TGT on the drop as I think it was way oversold. And if you're long it was a great opportunity IMO.
Their store brands are great & hugely profitable. Heinz was one of the few stocks down today based on the shift to store brands. I'm just very optimistic TGT will have a very nice recovery throughout the year.
Sold TGT today for nice profit, I’m in the money w/ WMT and JPM. They should go higher near term (wks) IMO.
Sell into rally’s; it’s all going lower over next 6 months though IMO. Don’t fight the Fed
> When asked about q4 on the Costco call the guy said “we don’t guide”
Translation: “We know what you autists did after WMT, TGT & SNAP guidance. no thx”
The vast majority of products that tgt and wmt sell have only inflated ~5%. And because energy and housing is up so much, that leaves less room in the budget for shopping. We’re all spending as much or more, just on different shit.
>Costco showing WMT how to have a CC
Step 1: give good rewards. Step 2: restrict credit cards outside our swipe network. Seems really easy.
Costco showing WMT how to have a CC
You know WMT beat revenue by 2 billion right?
TGT and J&J aren't going anywhere.
There are people who prefer shopping at TGT rather than WMT and yes retail took it on the chin but this isn't a death knell. Disclaimer: I own TGT shares.
J&J is a top Healthcare company. A blue chipper and well diversified. With healthcare being a top priority now and boomers retiring and aging, this is poised to do very well. We all need healthcare.
COIN and UBER will stick around but I expect more to the downside with them.
Cost has been over valued for a minute. But consumer staples have been getting obliterated lately because that’s where everyone was hiding from the tech apocalypse. Shit like WMT/TGT/COST got even more overvalued, funny watching it implode. Oil/gas will be the next one in a couple quarters.
Anybody have insight on the following tickers?
-UBER -J&J -TGT -WMT -ADM -COIN -JPM
What happened to the whole retail apocalypse. Why did the most discussed stocks fail like TGT/WMT.
While the lesser talked about one crushed earnings like M, TJX, DG, and now ULTA.
> Ulta Beauty Raises FY22 Guidance, Sees Net Sales $9.35B-$9.55B Vs $9.18B Est.,
Joins WSM, JWN, DLTR and others in saving retail sector after WMT/TGT fucked it up.
Specialty retailer > WMT/TGT
I want to see LULU back at 300+
It’s almost like y’all ignore that Costco dropped on the WMT earnings. That was bad Costco earnings being priced in. It can’t tank that much more if any
i duno if TGT demo is broke but lets hope its a JWN WSM etc vs a WMT
The typical Costco shopper has a family income of about $93,000 a year.3
Those aren't poor slobs like WMT shoppers, COST is gunna beat
poor people consumer discretionary was way down TGT and WMT got fucked
COST main revenue driver is consumer discretionary not gas, groceries, or memberships
BUT rich people discretionary like LULU and JWN is up
so, is COST poor person or richer person store?
Wmt $122p because I can’t afford Cost puta
I’m pretty boring. I just buy VOO and sometimes play options on SPY. I might look into some retail if they stay beaten down. WMT, TGT, etc.
Big differences; the average income of costco customer is higher than WMT/TGT and Costco gas stations. High income brands showed this week that high income consumers are not being affected like lower income consumers.
$TGT (14x), $WMT (19x) as well, all based on forward PE. $COST needs to post a perfect quarter at (35x).
$COST always trades at a high multiple, which makes it very sensitive to an earnings miss. We'll see.
Bad economic data or earnings reports could hit GME hard, on the days where WMT and TGT reported shit earnings, GME had huge red days.
As a slightly longer bear case within the next year, a recession could cause a downwards squeeze. Retail will be forced to sell to sustain their lifestyles due to layoffs and stagflation which will cause panic. Though most stocks will tank in this scenario, but especially unprofitable or highly speculative ones like GME since they have the highest liquidity and bankruptcy risks.
GME earnings will likely also get hit pretty hard in the recession scenario.
I don’t see why game developers would use GME’s NFT marketplace when they have their own pipelines already setup. They would be decreasing their margins and giving GME a bigger piece of the pie for seemingly no self benefit. So this is a longer term bear case with GME spending it’s dwindling cash on projects that will not have a good return on investment.
we'll find out after COST comes out.
hopefully their smaller product selection level = less inventory issue like WMT/TGT but u never know
what do u mean? its just gapping up to last week sell off level now that the WMT TGT retail fear has subsided
was trending that way until SNAP pulled that news out (which is being filled now too sans a few names)
DLTR, M & DG reported today. All show good numbers, up the guidance which proves that retail has buying power.
The expectation was that this stores will continue the trend set by TGT & WMT.
have you seen the price of oil and natural gas? how do you think that's gonna affect consumer consumption? WMT and TGT already sounded the alarms. There are stragglers left like macy's, nordstroms, and the lower end retailers for poors like dollar general, but without relief from housing and commodity costs, consumers are fucked. consumer consumption is 70% of the economy.
I'm going to grab cheap COST puts EOD. Just when nobody expects anything bad something will fuck the market up.
TGT and WMT have paid their dues, it's COST's turn
Shorting COST on this run up for earnings, WMT has Sam's Club and got clobbered, and the Costco's around me are pushing their credit cards really hard and not nearly as packed.
anticipating that Costco (ticker: COST) will earn $3.04 a share on revenue of $51.56 billion. That would be an increase from the year-ago, butt Gas may be the indicator like the other clubs,,i,e, Sams, WMT, TGT...
So like WMT and TGT really messed with us, making us think other retail stores would do the same. M up 13% pre-market.
This was old news, may 4th. Most of the reasons they gave for 0’5 rate hikes forever are showing signs of breaking down. Employment, housing and especially consumer sediment(eg TGT/WMT sales implosion). Thus the market expect them to back off especially if inflation slows which will happen if people start getting laid off in mass.
If inflation and supply chain issued werent a thing... WMT is already cheap. DG is the smaller cheaper version. They are going to get fucked harder by inflation and weak demand.
It is a well managed company but this shit storm is about to fly.
Dollar General reporting tomorrow before open. Watch it blow chunks. That'll be wmt, tgt, dg, dks, etc. all sucking ass while Nordstroms was still OK. Basically, the 99% of the country are fucked by inflation while rich people gives zero fucks about money and spend to buy $325 shirts and $2750 handbags.
Sams/wmt is the same way, they went down because of the uprising of gas prices… Costco may have the same situation
If people aren't shopping at WMT or TGT they must be going to DG & DLTR right?
COST better not disappoint tomorrow. already been so battered down because of WMT and TGT earnings
Already have WMT/CRM looking to nibble on some SNOW. You got shares below IPO price?
WMT, CRM, very small position of SNOW sub-100
Imagine being bullish over some stupid FOMC notes pump, yet ignoring all of the warning signs from TGT, WMT, DKS, SNAP, etc. Then ignoring big earnings coming from SNOW, COST, NVDA and GDP/PCE still on tap this week. Bulls are so, sooooooooo fooked.
been holding shares that ate shit after tgt and wmt shit the bed. gonna hope this holds through tomorrow and that we have a nice bounce back up to 150+
A recession isnt priced in lmao. Looks what happened to TGT and WMT once people realized their growth could slow. OR when SNAP revised their guidance the other day.
GDP revision tomorrow and we're taking the red rocket through the floor. WMT and TGT already showed us w r fuked.
Enjoy the green today and don't miss the exits.
A little bit of Netflix, a lot of PYPL, some U, WMT, a little BA, and a lot of SNAP.
my port is all XOM and WMT calls now 🚀
Buy your favorite stocks then sell them before end of day when the trend seems to run its course. Risk-on example: MSFT, Defensive example: WMT
Sell cash covered leap put on wmt
Why is expected EPS for COST only $1.08? Is it because of WMT and TGT? I have a tingling in my balls saying they’re going to well exceed $1.08 of EPS
Thank you. These retail put plays turned out a lot trickier than the simple put days of wmt and tgt.
Ahh Recession...consumers will downgrade: buy WMT, TGT, dollar tree, etc..
Wtf they are down 20-30%?
nvm...High-end buyers don't give a fuk, buy Nordstrom, TOLs
Heavily debating grabbing big lots calls. They report Friday PM and have a forward PE of 5. They sell super cheap shit which is all that TGT and WMT had going for it on their earnings so I am betting on a less-than-awful earnings that will give it a quick rocket before the market drags it down again. Of course they can get bent over if supply chain issues are worse for them than the market has already priced in.
wmt not budging in the premarket
Reply to the first response...
I love talking with people that agree with me. I've got 345 for SPY as a target for June (though maybe July). I don't have a target for Q's. There is still so much overpriced shit in there I am only targeting individual stocks, because I don't know how to price the Q's. AAPL is still 3x the Covid lows. (Holding 90P for Jun) MSFT is 2x. GOOGL is 2x.
And yet, we're still not pricing in a recession. Though it may have just started with WMT and TGT. There's still a lot of re-pricing lower to go, in my opinion.
Doesn't mean a crash immediately. Funds have been doing a good job of keeping the indexes high while they move into other assets. But, eventually retail will get the picture and start dumping.
WMT and TGT dumped because inflation basically, not because people are returning to normal, returning to normal would mean people are buying those nice TV's, sound systems, furniture and whatever else, but they are now over stocked because people can't afford them.
people are buying bare essentials more than ever right now, and only bare essentials. that along with the supply chain costs, caused that dump.
I have poor people in my family too. It made me happy to hear that the CEO of $MCD commented that they weren't going to raise prices on their food despite higher input costs because he wants to protect his customer base. I looked at the food I bought from $DG this week and all the shelf stable stuff doesn't expire until 2023 or later. In my opinion $WMT and $TGT specifically mentioned not raising prices on their essential goods because they are worried about losing share to stores like ALDI, $DLTR and $DG.
I did find #putinaticket in my research, but assumed these problems were universal at retailers. $WMT and $AMZN are regularly in unionization fights. I saw that $DG lightly staff their stores and holds wages down in ways that the other retailers do not. My research was really focused on whether or not I could make some money in the stock in the short term versus if they were a good place to work.
Hope you are in a better place with your employment now.
They fill food 'deserts'... areas that have been abandoned by large retailers like $WMT and grocery stores. For some communities it's the only place to go besides the gas station.
Not in front of my computer but TGT and WMT have much more reasonable valuations.
Yeah after TGT and WMT earnings I don’t think so
im pretty sure WMT revenues go up during recessions...
It could be Armageddon and $WMT would still be in the green.
TGT didn't even say consumer is weak, they just said they aren't buying stuff like TV's any more which is fucking given because everyone bought those big ticket items during the whole year they had to stay at home. TGT and WMT seen increased costs not reduced demand.
Nothing is priced in on the stock market, everyday is a new day.
I think $DG will release results below expectations and the price will drop more and bringing $WMT and $TGT lower with them.
This is just the beginning of the market correction, SPY support is at 380 but when this breaks the next support is 349. Fibonacci levels don't lie. Fasten your seatbelts the we just hit the first retracement at 26%
So you are saying, buy Nestlé to get the US component of their business? That makes no sense.
If you buy WMT you get 68% of the super market business in Mexico . Why buy a Mexican company to get the other 32%?
JWN says consumer strong, Snap, WMT, TGT, say weak. It's all crap, all of it
So WMT and TGT plummeted but JWN rocketed. Apes buying groceries from Nordstrom now!???
Defensives: WMT, insurance, healthcare, telecoms etc
ALL IN ON WMT CAUSE CRAMER HATES IT
Lol no. ROST, TGT, CSCO, WMT, ANF all happened within the last 7 trading days.
You’re right they’ve got to eat and they will go to Walmart for that. Calls on WMT it is.
Best guess is that BBY cut guidance. TGT and WMT had issues with inventory levels and higher costs. It's probably more about fear of discretionary spending in the retail space. DKS reports tomorrow as well.
You probably want to wait to touch it until seeing how they do on their upcoming ER. Look at what happened to WMT, TGT, and ANF. I agree with you the dividend yield is nice.
I'd say things really started looking bad when TGT and WMT shit the bed
It was the first sign that the American consumer is in serious trouble and no company's earnings are safe
Everyone focused on BBY and ZM, but missed SNAP. TGT was easy because of WMT. NFLX was easy because fuck commercials.
TGT is also a good pick, but I think Walmart is better since they have a more refined online marketplace like Amazon. Target is selling off more than WMT
Picked some up at 147 limit buy but I think it's probably still overpriced. I'm more bullish on WMT but I figured 5 shares of TGT would hedge my bet.
I’d say all retail is priced at this point, if you missed the tgt and wmt face plant you’re burning puts on anything else for a few weeks
Those sweet 0.01$ gains on WMT
First you spend your money in America. Second think about the proportion of foreign business big American companies do.
Example: MSFT revenue is about 50% international. Others like WMT, GM , F are similar.
They’re gonna be just like bby with their low guidance. They thought ahead unlike tgt and wmt
Na, COST has already had a big drop following WMT and TGT earnings. This smells like IV crush.
Also e-commerce business, sales are definitely struggling. I said the recession was already here a few weeks ago and got ripped to shreds by regarded perma-bulls. Look at WMT and TGT earnings, where are you losers now?
I’ve got puts on COST for this week. I don’t see how they don’t disappoint earnings. WMT announced last week and I read into some analysis and the Sam’s Club division did not farewell either, and that is a good comp for COST. Lastly, the P/E is just too high for COST, it has no reason to be in the 30s when growth stocks are trading below that, just makes no sense.
In all fairness, it did drop like 20% since WMT earnings, so it already got a lot of it out of the way. TGT was a gem in the rough that it didn't react much to WMT for whatever reason.
No one should be surprised that BBY Bestbuy is green after earnings. All retail stocks already dumped last week after TGT and WMT earnings.
Its like the blasting caps that go off before the big implosion. FB, snap, that, wmt. Pretty soon it'll all collapse
$12k in Index ETF'S $7k in mREITS $600 in OTM WMT calls (4 month expiration)
Either they make TGT and WMT liars or they go to Davy Jones’ locker.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I certainly think a sell off based at least on the fear of that isn’t all that strange to imagine.
We had negative GDP last quarter, big misses from pretty by the books companies in TGT and WMT, etc.
Would you be shocked to know that companies who could go under with a bad ER may be less than likely to report such a result if they can just bend the truth a little?
Just buy puts.
They’re like discount discount. It’s like a defensive against WMT and TGT. I don’t see how they miss.
It's against my shares (like I said, it's a hedge). Tgt and wmt were trading at much higher valuations than m currently is. I think it's been beaten down beyond justification, so I'm comfortable holding, but if they shit the bed, I'm prepared to cut it.