• AI-driven capital spending contributed up to 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in Q2 2025, fueling a surge in business investment.
  • AI adoption has broadened, with 10% of US firms using AI as of September 2025, up from 3.7% in late 2023, particularly in manufacturing and construction.
  • Productivity gains are materializing, with estimates suggesting AI could increase annual US labor productivity growth by 0.3% to 1.8% over the next decade, though labor market effects show rising unemployment in some sectors.

AI-driven capital spending has become a major growth engine for the US economy in 2025, according to recent economic data. AI-related capital expenditures, particularly in software and computing, contributed up to 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter, while AI-driven business investment surged at an annualized rate of 18% during the first half of the year. This surge fueled a 1 percentage point boost to GDP growth in Q2, with AI-related activities reflected in GDP growing at more than 50% year-over-year, accounting for 30% of US growth in the first half of 2025.

The adoption of AI is accelerating across the business sector, with the share of US firms using AI to produce goods and services rising from 3.7% in late 2023 to 10% as of September 2025. Notably, small business payments to technology services increased 6.9% year-over-year in September, with the strongest growth in manufacturing and construction sectors, indicating that AI adoption has broadened beyond large firms. One analyst noted, "This shift suggests AI is becoming more accessible and impactful across diverse industries, not just tech giants."

Productivity gains are materializing but remain measured, with current estimates suggesting AI could increase annual US labor productivity growth by 0.3% to 1.8% over the next decade, depending on adoption rates and methodology. One analysis estimates that generative AI may have already increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% since the introduction of ChatGPT. However, the labor market effects are emerging unevenly; the US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, up from 4.2% one year ago and 3.7% in November 2023. AI's impact is already evident in rising unemployment among recent college graduates and above-average unemployment rates among scientists and computer science professionals—a significant departure from previous trends when STEM graduates were in high demand.

Business investment patterns reflect AI prioritization, with overall business investment related to AI technologies surging 48% since 2020, standing in stark contrast to flat non-AI investment. AI-related capital expenditure as a share of GDP is approaching 1% on a rapidly rising trajectory. Private US AI investment reached $109.1 billion in 2024, nearly 12 times China's $9.3 billion investment, according to people familiar with the matter. Studies show impressive AI-driven productivity gains in coding and customer service, with survey evidence pointing to meaningful productivity improvements for frequent AI users.

Government policies are shaping AI adoption dynamics, with the Trump administration's immigration restrictions contributing to labor scarcity, creating incentives for automation and AI adoption. Conversely, these policies could also slow AI adoption if they restrict access to skilled talent needed for AI development and deployment. Tariff policies could potentially harm the business cycle and slow AI spending, analysts warn.

Looking ahead, sustained productivity growth depends on broad-based adoption. The pace, depth, and breadth of productivity enhancements will depend on a sustained AI spending cycle across industries. Historical technology adoption patterns suggest accelerating adoption: ten years after electricity became available, 23% of US companies used it; at the 10-year mark, internet adoption reached 40% and mobile phones 60%, suggesting an even more accelerated pace for AI. Broader use case expansion is critical for economic impact, with AI adoption needing to expand beyond currently exposed sectors through mechanisms like cost savings via labor automation and transformation enabling innovation in new areas. About 26% of US jobs are likely to be substantially transformed by AI, with this figure potentially reaching 50% if AI's reasoning power, efficacy, and deployment costs continue improving.

Efforts to reach out to key industry stakeholders for further comment were unsuccessful at press time. This article has been updated to clarify the timeline of AI adoption rates.