Aug 17, 2016
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the American Eagle Outfitters Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions].
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms.
Judy Meehan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, you may begin.
Judy Meehan
Good afternoon everyone. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Jay Schottenstein, Chief Executive Officer; Chad Kessler, Global Brand President of the AE Brands; Jen Foyle, Global Brand President of Aerie; and Scott Hurd, Interim Chief Financial Officer.
Also joining us for Q&A today is Michael Rempell, Chief Operations Officer. Before we begin today’s call, I need to remind you that we will make certain forward-looking statements.
These statements are based upon information that represents the company’s current expectations or beliefs. The results actually realized may differ materially based on risk factors included in our SEC filings.
We have also posted a financial supplement with additional financial details on our website. And now, I’d like to turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Schottenstein
Thanks Judy and good morning everyone. Business momentum continued into the second quarter completing a strong first half of 2016.
Second quarter revenue grew 3% and EPS increased 35% to $0.23. This marked the eight consecutive quarter of profit improvement.
So far this year, our earnings per share have increased over 40%, a significant increase last year. And while it’s gratifying to demonstrate great progress, we are highly focused on the future of pursuing what we see today as a vast market opportunity for greater customer acquisition, engagement, and further profitable growth.
Our goal has been to position our branch for a new retail environment, one that involves broader competition and new ways in which our customers interacts and shop. We believe that we are now out ahead of this profound transformation in our industry, and we intend to stay there.
For the past few years, we have worked hard but also very strategically. We have lifted our brand above the competition by raising the bar on merchandize, innovation, and strengthening our customer focus.
I’d also believe we made good investment to support best-in-class technologies and capabilities. We will continue to invest, innovate, and lead.
We are creating greater differentiation and more compelling overall brand experience. Chad, Jen, and the teams’ excellent work to elevate style, quality, and corporate innovation has been well received.
A few examples include our denim and bottom categories, where we have led in bringing flex and stretch fabrics to market. We’re also making good progress in other areas including tops, where we’re also introducing new fabrics and greater technology.
Our focus on product and brand also dovetail with improved speed to market and disciplined inventory management. Omni-channel tools continue to enable a more efficient use of inventory and support strong customer engagement and satisfaction.
Our online business, particularly through the mobile channel, has been exceptionally strong. In fact, our new Mobile-First website drove a 35% increase in mobile conversion.
We continue to see transition to a multi-channel shopper, who consistently spends more than a single channel shopper, ensuring we remain ahead of how customers engage with their brands is a top priority. We’re also doing a good job leveraging mall traffic, yet we’re focused on further strengthening store productivity, enhancing the store experience with the right service levels and creating a more compelling environment for customers.
From a financial standpoint, we have our sights firmly focused on continued profitable growth. The foundation of our businesses is extremely strong.
We maintain a healthy balance sheet and will continue to maximize our growth opportunities. There is significantly more runway for American Eagle, which is perfectly positioned for today’s consumer.
In a few weeks, we’ll be seeing our new marketing platform, which I am confident will highlight the brand’s broad appeal. Aerie continues to demonstrate its extraordinary potential and unique market position.
Strong product and authentic marketing such as our recent Share Your Spark campaign are truly resonating with a growing customer base. We remain enthusiastic about the future potential of Tailgate, Todd Synder, and creating new ventures to build success for many years to come.
Thanks. And now I will turn the call over to Chad.
Chad Kessler
Thanks Jay. I’m pleased to report that the American Eagle brand delivered another solid quarter and a tough retail landscape.
Product leadership and innovation combined with elevated quality and value continued to resonate with our customers. In the second quarter, our brand comps increased 1%, and we delivered a meaningful increase in the year-over-year merchandise margin and profitability.
Sales were especially strong online, and we continue to see our best customers shopping on all channels and spending more. Across the brand, we achieved higher selling prices and increased transaction sizes.
We were impacted by unseasonable weather early in the quarter, followed by improved momentum in June and July. Overall, our spring and summer collections were well received.
Women’s posted a positive mid-single-digit comp with strength across most categories, with highlights in denim, shorts, dresses, net and woven tops. Demand for men’s was not as strong with comps down in the low-single digits.
We did see good strength in denim, shorts, woven shirts, and underwear, but the most knit top categories and accessories were below our expectations. The men’s business strengthened as the quarter progressed, and we continue to work hard in brining improved styles and more innovation across the collection.
Our merchandise margin and profitability were nicely positive to last year. Higher realized prices and lower product costs contributed to the favorability.
Our sourcing team has done a great job leveraging a positive environment creating efficiencies to drive our costs down. At the same time, we’ve delivered better quality and improved speed to market.
As we noted on our last call, we expect to achieve sourcing benefits for the balance of the year. AEs’ back-to-school and fall collections are infused with newness and innovation, across categories we believe we’ve captured exciting new trends and styles that are emerging this season.
We expanded our signature Denim X and Flex Jeans to include new fits, styles, and revolutionary 360 degree stretch. Importantly, we’re also leveraging our dominance and leading fits in jeans to extend our franchise across bottoms categories to include pants and shorts.
This further builds our competitive advantage and expands them out around our business. Looking forward, we will continue to raise the bar in product innovation and leadership season on season.
In September, I’m excited to launch our new global brand campaign Platform that celebrates young America, their unique voice, individuality, and influential perspective. Building off our authentic heritage as America’s favorite jeans brand, we will leverage this campaign to capitalize on our current momentum, strengthen the emotional connection with our customer, and broaden the appeal of our brand.
We see significant market opportunity in today’s retail landscape. We remain focused on leveraging our competitive advantages, driving quality sales, and staying focused on our customers to deliver an exceptional brand experience.
Congratulations once again to the entire AE team for another outstanding quarter. Thanks.
And now I’ll turn it over to Jen.
Jen Foyle
Thanks Chad and good morning everyone. I’m thrilled to report that Aerie’s strong momentum has continued with the second quarter marking the fifth consecutive quarter of 20% or better comps and record profitability.
In fact, second quarter margin was the highest to date. With a comp gain of 24%, we experienced strength across all channels, and we continue to attract new customers to Aerie, growing our active customer base in the mid-teens.
Sales metrics were strong across the board, and we saw increased transactions and higher basket size. We experience good strength in most categories including intimate, swim, accessories, and apparel.
Customers are excited by the newness in our business, which combines traditional intimates with fun new novelty items and comfortable lounge wear. And now as we enter fall, we look forward to the launch of our new sports and yoga line.
We’ve taken our time and built the foundation for quality sports inspired collection and to add to our product offerings. The digital business has been exceptional and our store base continues to get stronger.
We are focusing on creating a better store experience, maintaining higher in-stocks, and improving productivity. I’m pleased; we will continue to fuel our expansion with approximately 65 locations opening in the next 18 months, which will include key underpenetrated markets.
Aerie’s square footage is expected to grow 32% by the end of fiscal 2017. I’m thrilled with the power of our AerieREAL campaign and the incredible momentum behind our body positivity movement.
With each new season, we build on our message, and through social media we stay highly engaged of our customers. I know I speak for the entire Aerie team that our customer’s feedback has been the most gratifying and uplifting experience.
Aerie is the very early stages of a remarkable growth plan. We have seemingly endless opportunity, we are excited about the future and yet we are laser focused and grounded on today.
We will continue to challenge ourselves to deliver great new product, innovate categories, and expand our collection, and we will engage with our customer on her terms in a real and authentic way. Thanks to the team for their unwavering commitment and outstanding execution.
With that I’ll turn it over to Scott.
Scott Hurd
Thanks Jen and good morning everyone. We delivered positive momentum in the second quarter, achieving sequential growth and building on the improvements from last year.
Top line growth, strong merchandize profitability, combined with controlled expenses drove a 35% increase in second quarter earnings. To demonstrate our strong profit flow-through, we generated 25 million of incremental revenue and 16 million of incremental operating profit.
Now looking more closely at the details of the quarter; total revenue increased 3% to 823 million from 797 million last year. Consolidated comparable sales increased 3%.
This follows an 11% comparable sales increase in the second quarter last year. Additional sales information can be found on page 5 of the presentation.
This quarter by brand AE comps were up 1% and Aerie comps increased 24%. Consolidated comps were driven by a mid-single digit increase in the average transaction value due to a low single digit increase in the average unit retail price and higher units per transaction.
We achieve high quality sales strategically using promotions that delivered top line growth and it increase in margin. Total gross profit increased 8% to 307 million from 285 million last year.
The gross margin rose 160 basis points to a rate of 37.3% revenue. Our merchandize margin expanded by 190 basis points due to lower cost and higher realized selling prices.
Buying, occupancy and warehousing deleveraged 30 basis points primarily due to increase delivery cost related to the growth in our digital business. SG&A dollars increased 2% to 200 million.
Blend investments in advertising and strategic initiatives along with increases in variable selling expenses were partially offset by good expense management. As a rate to revenue, SG&A improved 20 basis points (inaudible) on 24.5% last year.
Depreciation and amortization increased to 39 million and deleveraged 20 basis points to 4.7% as a rate to revenue. Operating income rose 29% to 69 million from 53 million last year, and operating margin expanded by 160 basis points to 8.3% as a rate to revenue.
Other expenses comprised of 3 million related to currency loss on cash held in Canadian dollars. This compares to other expense of 2 million last year.
In the second quarter, the tax rate was 36.5% compared to last year of 34.7%. Share buybacks led to a lower share count compared to last year.
EPS of $0.23 increased 35% from $0.17 last year. Turning to the balance sheet, starting with inventory, which can be found on page 6 of the presentation, we ended the quarter with inventory at cost of 422 million, up 3% from last year, ending units were down in the mid-single digits offset by a high-single digit increase in the average unit cost due to product mix and continued investments in merchandize composition.
Like-for-like, average unit cost is down to last year. The change from our guidance of flat year-over-year inventory was due to an acceleration of receipt to support the upcoming advertising campaign.
Strong inventory management remains at top priority. Looking ahead, we expect third quarter ending inventory at cost to be up in the low-single digits.
We ended the quarter with 240 million in cash, compared to 327 last year. Lower cash was a result of 227 million of share buybacks last year in addition over the past year; we returned 94 million in cash dividends and spent 135 million in capital expenditures.
Capital expenditures totaled 36 million in the second quarter and 61 million year-to-date. We now expect CapEx to be on the low end of the range at approximately 160 million for the year.
During the quarter, we opened five stores and closed seven. Additionally, there were 13 international licensed store openings and we ended the quarter with 158 licensed stores across 23 countries.
Although we have very few stores that are unprofitable, we continue to pursue opportunities to rationalize or consolidate selling markets. We are on track to close approximately 35 to 40 underperforming stores this year.
As a note, we have a good amount of flexibility in our fleet, with more than 500 store leases expiring in the next three years and over 180 in the next year alone. Additional store information can be found on pages nine through 11 in the presentation.
Now looking ahead to the third quarter; based on an anticipated low single digit increase in the comparable sales, we expect third quarter EPS of $0.40 to $0.41. This compares to the EPS of $0.35 last year and excludes potential impairment and restructuring charges.
We’ll strive for continued gross margin expansion and SG&A leverage. We will maintain a disciplined approach to managing the business well, with a sharp eye on delivering consistent profitable growth.
Thank you And now we’ll take your questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Simeon Siegel with Nomura Securities.
Please proceed with your question.
Simeon Siegel
So with the general rationalization happening across the department store and specialty channels, can you talk about your opportunity to gain share at the AE brand? Maybe what you think the AE comp trajectory should look like over the next several quarters, any update on the current trends?
And then just what’re you assuming for the back half promotional environment, and maybe the gross margin impact there?
Chad Kessler
I think it’s definitely an interesting and evolving competitive landscape out there in terms of what we are focused on as we are focused on providing the best customer experience we can in our stores. We’re focused on evolving our omni-channel approach to the customer.
We want the customer to be able to interact as easily and as seamlessly with the brand any way that she’s looking to do that, and so we’re focusing a lot of efforts there. I also think the stores that we have and the stores will evolve overtime, but the stores that we have are essential to the customer experience.
And there is a lot of shift happening in the landscape. We’ll see how that impacts us directly.
I don’t know we have seen as competitors close in those same malls, we can pick-up one or two points on comp. We’ll see how that happens overtime.
We’ve guided for the quarter, and we don’t guide beyond that, so I don’t want to share our future expectations there.
Scott Hurd
And just to touch on your question around gross margin opportunities. We do expect gross margin expansion here in the third quarter to Chad's point; it’s a bit early to speculate on the fourth quarter, but we have product cost benefits and our strategic approach to promotions, we do expect gross margin expansion here in the third quarter.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Tunic with the Royal Bank of Canada. Please proceed with your question.
Kate Simmons
This is Kate Simmons on for Brian. Thanks for taking our question.
We've heard some better commentary on denim and maybe some newer silhouette adoption going on in the landscape. Chad, just wanted to see if you could speak to any – some of the newer trends happening in your own denim business, any newer silhouette adoption, and also any progress you've made in terms of the tops to bottom ratio there.
Chad Kessler
Sure. I would like to start off just by saying, whether its men’s’ or women’s, it holds for the whole brand, but our bottoms business has never been stronger.
We’re thrilled about back-to-school in Q2, and back-to-school in how we’re starting. The customers are definitely responding well to the assortments we have out there.
We have such a democratic offering across a full range of fits that I feel like we’re well prepared for shifts that may happen in terms of silhouette. We’re seeing a lot of excitement around some of the fashion rises and destroy and I feel like we’re well prepared as that business evolves.
So I think in terms of the tops to bottoms ratio, we are seeing positive momentum in the women’s tops business and that helps to balance out the tops to bottoms ratio somewhat. In men’s, we have the men’s bottoms business, had a very strong Q2 and similarly women’s has never been better.
And as with men’s tops lagging a little bit slower in the turnaround there, that tops to bottoms ratio is still favoring the bottoms business. But that really is our key strength, so we will do whatever we can to get the tops businesses moving in a positive direction in both men’s and women’s.
But I don’t see our bottoms business slowing down at all, and as we can continue to grow and expand both the customer base and the business in bottoms, I’m not sure if the tops to bottoms ratio will change meaningfully towards tops in the future, and I’m not sure that that’s necessarily something that needs to happen for our business to continue to expand.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research. Please proceed with your question.
Janet Kloppenburg
Just a couple of questions, Scott if you could talk about the marketing investment in the back half, I know a new campaign is launching, and I'm wondering if you'll still be able to get SG&A leverage on a low-single-digit comp? And Chad, if you could talk about two things; first of all, if you're expecting progress in the men's business, I know you've introduced a lot of flex fabrics in the tops area, and I'm wondering what you're expecting there from that innovation, and just overall the traffic trends that you're seeing in the business, and if we think perhaps the new marketing campaign could help reverse those trends.
Scott Hurd
As it relates to the marketing investments, so here for Q3 we do expect to have some leverage in our SG&A rate, and our approach has been pretty consistent here. It’s really taken a disciplined approach to how we deploy our SG&A dollars challenging the ROIs and making sure we prioritize the highest.
We do have a pretty dynamic expense based on a lot of flexibility, so we plan to have a consistent leverage.
Chad Kessler
So men’s, just to put it in context or into perspective, the men’s business was down slightly, but the bottoms business as I said on the last question is the best bottoms business we’ve had in time. So we’re definitely seeing great progress and continued strength in men’s bottoms, and in tops, the turn in men’s tops is taking a little longer than I would have hoped, but we’re definitely seeing the progress with some of the innovations that we have delivered.
We are seeing some really strong businesses in the men’s tops categories, and I hope as we continue to go forward that that will grow as penetration in men’s tops and we will see positive momentum in men’s. So I do think we’re making progress, and the innovation is helping and the customer is seeing better value from what we’re delivering there.
In terms of traffic, mall traffic for apparel does continue to be challenging. We continue to see that we’re leveraging the traffic that our traffic is better than the impaired mall traffic for apparel, and then we’re able to leverage clearly the traffic that we’re getting.
I think our stores provide a great experience for the customer, and I think we do benefit or I know we benefit from the size of our fleet in terms of the complete digital business. Our multi-channel customers are the strongest customers that we have, and the stores provide great experience and great customer service for them.
The campaign, we want to launch this campaign to build on the strength we’re seeing in the business. I think it’s going to make the brand even stronger, and we continue to be focused on our core customer, but I do think the new brand platform will bring new customers to the business and even broaden the appeal of the brand beyond its current customer base.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Anna Andreeva with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Anna Andreeva
A question on gross margins for the quarter, nice beat versus expectations. Sorry if I missed this, but were mark-downs down as part of that increase?
Do you still see opportunity for lower mark-downs for the year, and remind us how are you thinking about AUC cushion in to the back half and in to next year? And then secondly, just a question on comp metrics, AUR are up low single slowed a bit sequentially, how should we expect this metric in the back half.
Thanks.
Scott Hurd
You had a big pile there, so I’ll take the ones that I got, and then you could remind me which ones I missed. So as it relates to mark-downs in the quarter; for the second quarter mark-downs had no impact on gross margin, they were even year-over-year.
As it relates to the average unit cost, I think you had a question there on average unit cost. The thing I’d point you to on a like-for-like basis, our average unit costs are down in terms of the rise that you’re seeing.
As we’ve talked about, our average unit retails are being driven by the investment in our products or the innovation is driving those average unit retails. And then I think you had a question on back half AUR; I’m just not sure I found completely what you were asking.
Chad Kessler
Anna, this is Chad. In terms of AURs, we do continue to see an opportunity for AUR growth throughout the back half, and into the future.
As we continue to provide innovation and better quality and better fashion to our customer, both our male and female customers are seeing greater value and what we’re giving and that’s allowing us to raise the AURs. And also part of it is driven by mix and the strength of our bottoms business.
So we haven’t seen a slowdown - material slowdown in AUR growth and believe we continue to have opportunity as we move forward.
Anna Andreeva
That’s helpful. And Chad should we expect AUC to still be down in to ’17?
Michael Rempell
Hi Anna, it’s Michael Rempell. I can’t really speak to ’17 yet, but what I will tell you is, we expect for the back half of the year, we were looking at about 100 to 150 basis points, mark-up improvement and I certainly expect sitting looking at what we’re seeing now that we’ll see that in to Q1 of next year.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of John Morris with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John Morris
We talked to Chad quite a bit, I wanted to ask Jen a little a bit more about the texture of her business and maybe comment a little bit about where you saw strength, particularly an eye towards market share opportunity as you look ahead even a year from now, perhaps within the swim category. I'm wondering if you're seeing either near-term pressure as a result of competitors exiting, or the market share opportunity, were you able to pick that up on a go-forward basis.
Jen Foyle
Starting with the business, we were definitely on to the broader trend fairly early, and that was a huge build for us in the business going in to the second half and we continue to build on that category. But I wanted to note, it wasn’t just about bralettes, every category is trending for us right now, which is really exciting.
And I think we’ve really hit on the trends, but in a way that means something to the airy girl. That said, as we think about market share, we’re not going to stop.
We have a ton of opportunity in this brand. I mentioned we’re going to launch the sport and yoga line.
I actually believe that that trend is knuckling away, I think it’s just part of our life style. So that’s going to be our next launch.
And then swim, I always make a joke about swim for our girl, because we have younger customer. For her that business is almost like buying a prom dress every year or buying a new dress.
She has to purchase that new swimsuit to go away every year and she does, and we’re going to really expand on that category. We love the swim business, our girl really responded.
I don’t think we saw the downtick like some of our competitors did last year. So as I mentioned, margins were up for Aerie and while we did have to liquidate a little swim on the back half, it was highly profitable and it was almost a profitable season.
So we’re really excited about that business.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Richard Jaffe with Stifel Nicolaus. Please proceed with your question.
Richard Jaffe
A follow-on on Aerie; given the rapid expansion of free-standing stores, want to know how the math is balancing out for the shop in American Eagle stores and the free-standing stores. If you're able to expand the shop-in-shops and if economically it's better to do that than to continue to roll out stores or vice versa.
So if you could talk about the math there. \ And then also from an accounting standpoint, if you could comment does the Aerie comp include the Aerie product in American Eagle stores, or does that number go to the American Eagle stores, that sales increase?
Scott Hurd
The easy part are the comp, the comp for the merchandise sold in an American Eagle store is in the American Eagle comp.
Jen Foyle
Yes. And we’re definitely growing side by side.
We’ll have 90 by the end of 2017, which is a nice growth. We love that operating mode, it’s great for the Aerie business, and I would say it opens up new doors for new customers for us.
So the AE girl naturally moves over to Aerie and learns about our business and loves what she’s seeing. So side-by-side it’s definitely part of our strategy.
Thinking about the standalone business, we’re going to be highly strategic on where we open up new stores. We have a game plan in place; we have density models that we’re looking at to make sure that we don’t overdo it.
But we have very pointed strategies on the stores that we’re going to open. What we see is, there was a nice leverage on the direct business, where we have locations.
So as a reminder, we’re only in 11 states right now. We’re only in 11 states, so we have lots of expansion opportunity.
But the growth in direct has been dynamic. We’ve had a huge direct growth and it’s been explosive as we mentioned.
We see 60% of the growth in direct coming from those 11 states. So, that’s what I really think the opportunity is for Aerie.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Adrienne Yih with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Adrienne Yih
Chad, question for you, and then Jen, a question for you. Chad can you talk about the inventory environment and the promotional environment exiting the second quarter?
So really July and then into early August. It would seem that everybody's intent on cleaning up, and then the fact that your markdowns were flattish year-on-year suggests to me that perhaps it is.
Secondarily for Jen, when is the sport yoga launch, and then as you build that brand awareness outside of those 11 states, what kind of marketing are you doing, and when you do your marketing studies, what is the brand awareness that you see this year over maybe say last year?
Chad Kessler
In terms of promotions, we continue to be strategic in trying to contain the promotion. The landscape however, continues to be incredibly promotional, and so we feel like we need to compete on the lease on with someone to engage the customer.
We’re finding that the promotions are running, clearly as you see, and the result the promotions are running are contained, but have also been effective at helping to drive the metrics that we need to drive.
Scott Hurd
In terms of the financial aspect of the inventory composition, we are cleaner that last year and again the markdowns were in line with last year from a profit standpoint.
Jen Foyle
And as for Aerie, the yoga launch is coming your way in a couple of weeks. We’re really excited about it.
We think the product’s great, and I mentioned, we really took our time and listened to what the customer wanted and we have an expansive offering. So we’re excited about that.
As far as brand awareness and market share, I can’t say enough about this AerieREAL campaign, its resonated with our girl. That’s all I have to say.
The girl loves this campaign and we’re going to stop. We think that this campaign has a long life to it, and it’s actually not even a campaign anymore, it happens to be our brand DNA.
And what’s interesting about that is, when something like this resonates with our customer, it also resonates with our team. And just the animation that our team feels around this AerieREAL campaign it really brings it to life.
So we’re all behind this campaign and we know that it’s brining brand awareness. Our [file] is definitely up, we’re getting new customers every day and we’re excited, and we know that she is pleased with all the information we’re getting from them and what she’s saying to us.
So we’re not going to stop.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Neely Tamminga with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question.
Kayla Wesser
This is Kayla Wesser on for Neely. Just wondering, we heard a lot about this denim strength.
Just wondering based on past experiences, how long can a trend like this go on, and then also how should we expect the timing of flows to move this year versus last year, any fast supposing more new items or (inaudible) throughout the fall holiday season versus last year?
Chad Kessler
Our denim business is pretty special. Our denim business is growing, when everyone is saying denim is dead.
And now denim is not dead and our denim business continues to grow. We have such a loyal customer base for our jeans and we continue to attract new customers to the brand for the denim.
The team does a lot of work around fit innovation, fabric innovation, wash innovation. There’s a lot of - we’re constantly testing, and so I feel confident that we’re going to be able to continue to grow the denim business for the foreseeable future.
As I said the team does an amazing job, and the customers’ very loyal to that product and I don’t see that business slowing down. So I think that continues to be a key strength for the brand.
In terms of the floor sets, based on what seems to be the increasingly competitive landscape in the fourth quarter, we are going to make some changes to how we deliver products just towards this fall. I don’t want to lay out for everybody what those changes are going to be, but we have reworked some of the product for our strategies, both through the digital channel as well as the storage channel.
Just try to keep the customer engaged and try to maximize margins through the fall season.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss for JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Christina Brathwaite
It's Christina Brathwaite on for Matt. Thanks for taking our question.
Just looking at the full year store guidance, it looks like you've cut back on some of the stores that were planned to be closed, at both American Eagle and Aerie. Can you just walk through the decision there, what's driving the change, and more broadly how are you feeling about the health of your real estate portfolio, given the plans for additional store closures at the department stores?
Is there an opportunity for (inaudible) to potentially inflect positively into fiscal ‘17?
Scott Hurd
Let’s start with the real estate. We have a wonderfully profitable fleet, very few storage are unprofitable.
When I think about closures, we reground on the fact that we’ve closed about 150 stores over the last three years, and we have eliminated the bottom operating profit wrong of our portfolio. Our stores really for us have a few jobs as we evaluate them.
Number one, they need to market accretive; number two, they need to be able to meet our referral rate in terms of four wall operating profit, and the need to service the customer from an omni perspective. So as we look forward to the 500 store leases that will come up over the next three years, a 180 of which in the next year, we’ll run them through those metrics.
We’d been a consistent closure of stores that won’t meet those hurdles that I discussed and we’ll continue to be in that same base.
Scott Hurd
Also Scott to add, we’re seeing opportunities for a high profile locations too for American Eagle and Aerie.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Binetti
If I can zero in on the comp guidance for a minute for low single digits in third quarter, could you speak to August trends, and then I think the transactions in the second quarter were down mid-single digits, which is similar to what we've heard in most places in the mall. But that was down from where you were in the first quarter.
And I think comparisons last year are pretty similar as we look quarter-to-quarter, down low singles. What kind of traffic do you have to see based on the AUR plans you have in third quarter, really into the back half of this year and how are you thinking about traffic?
Scott Hurd
No, we are not expecting any difference in traffic trends as we move forward, in terms of how things are tracking here within the quarter. We are not going to specifically about where in the quarter; we’re going to stick to our low single digit top line growth.
Michael Binetti
If I could ask for a little color on Aerie for the model, I think you commented that the basket was higher. If you wouldn't mind giving us some color on whether that was (inaudible) ticket, and then the compare slowed a little bit.
I guess we have tougher comparisons coming up here. How should we think about how you guys are thinking about what kind of run rate Aerie should be at as we look into the back half of the year, given pretty volatile difference in the comparison?
Jen Foyle
Well we were up against some pretty tough comparison in Q1 and Q2, but also we hurdled that. So we will continue to drive the business.
All of our metrics are up actually, so not just about basket, our AUR and the nice thing in Aerie is our traffic happens to be up. So we’re outpacing that traffic and that has certainly helped the business.
Scott Hurd
And again, with Aerie only, we’re only competing right now in 11 states and continue to expand. We have a lot of growth opportunity for Aerie on top line and all the operating metrics as Jen mentioned.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Oliver Chen with Cowen and Company. Please proceed with your question.
Courtney Wilson
It's Courtney Wilson on for Oliver today. Thanks for taking our question.
I was hoping you could just talk a little bit more about your international plans, maybe over the next year or so, how you're balancing that between the AE brand and Aerie and company-owned and franchise, especially as you look to Europe and Mexico, et cetera.
Scott Hurd
We have a greatly profitable international business, and to your point build on the license business. We’ve got three stores in the UK; we had planned on three more stores this year.
We’ve elected to hold on those stores given the uncertain environment in the UK. We have so much opportunity in our highly profitable Mexico business, and are continuing to improve Asia business and we also look to distort it more towards our licensed partners as well.
So we have growth across both American Eagle and Aerie, both in the licensed business and wholly-owned that we’ll continue to drive that, and we have opportunities in Spain and other areas of Europe that we’re beginning to explore. And again we do have a continued focus on building on the highly profitable licensed business that we run.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Tiffany Kanaga with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Tiffany Kanaga
Would you discuss digital sales growth trends in the quarter, if you can quantify a comp number there and your goals for where you think online penetration of sales could ultimately go?
Michael Rempell
As Chad and Jen mentioned we’re really pleased with the e-commerce business in the second quarter. What we saw was we saw the comp continue to grow.
So we saw comp growth from Q4 in to Q1, and then accelerate in to Q2. It’s really a combination of things that’s building on the brand and product strength that we have with both Aerie and American Eagle, as well as some great new capabilities that our digital teams delivered.
So Jay mentioned we had a 30% lift in our mobile conversion. Our mobile app continues to be very strong with almost a 100% comps in the quarter, and we’re continuing to grow both our international e-commerce business, as well as expand our flexible fulfillment capabilities, which in addition to driving e-commerce sales are allowing us to more efficiently use our inventory to gain some of the higher AURs and maintain margin metrics.
As far as the comp, the comp was a high double-digit comp, very strong comp there, and it’s roughly 20% of the business today. It obviously continues to grow as a percent of the business, and we’ll see how high is high.
We’re not necessarily focused on the e-commerce sales; we’re focused on profitable sales for the company in total.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Betty Chen with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Betty Chen
I was curious about margins. Again gross margin was up nicely with merchandise margin up strong.
Where are we now relative to historical levels, and whether that's even applicable, given the product innovation that's available in the stores? And also as Aerie continues to ramp up, can you remind us, I believe Aerie was now comparable in terms of margin with AE, and last quarter at least, where are we in the second quarter and where do we think Aerie margins can go?
Scott Hurd
Let me spend a few minutes on that. So in terms of gross margin in comparison to historical, we’re getting right up there with historical levels, historical highs.
And in terms of, is it applicable? I think what’s happening is, we’ve got to refine DNA and going back to and executing better to our traditional roots.
So we certainly more opportunity in gross margin. And for Aerie, Aerie is about on par with American Eagle, as their productivity continues to increase, and with their growth and our ability to deploy some more effective sourcing opportunities within their product line.
We should see continued expansion in their gross margin and over the long term we’d hope them to be accretive to the total.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Susan Anderson with FBR. Please proceed with your question.
Susan Anderson
I just wanted to drill down a little bit on fashion, and it sounds like you guys are seeing the silhouette change happening now, I think some others have said the same thing. Maybe just if you could give your thoughts around how fast could this happen, could it be significant driver to sales over the next couple years, or is this something that makes its way out there slowly and not as much of an impact?
And then also, if you could touch on anything else beyond denim which sounds to be pretty strong so far for back-to-school that’s in terms of strong trends out there.
Chad Kessler
I would say, first I’m going to start with your second question, in terms of denim. It’s really definitely talking a lot about denim; I think it’s important to recognize that it’s our entire bottoms business that is really strong.
So we’ve leveraged our strength and our customers’ loyalty in jeans and taking that across shorts and pants and see really strong business across the whole section of the business. In terms of new fashion trends, the business is constantly evolving.
I think we find - the most important thing for us is to provide the best outfitting and trend right product for the customer. We’re seeing strength both more over-sized tops as well as more shrunken tops.
I think we’re seeing potentially some shift there, not as dramatic as some other people I’ve talked to, but with the way we are in the business. And the way we’re constantly testing for what’s the future, as well as don’t ask why caps so which gives us kind of a glimpse in to where our customers headed.
I think we’ll prepared as we start to see changes there. Whether it means meaningful and back to the business, I think that it’s always great when things start to shift.
Whenever she feels like she needs to update her closet, it’s always an opportunity, and it just means that we need to be positioned, we need to time it right with the customer and have the right inventory behind it and that’s what we work on season after season.
Susan Anderson
And then if I could throw one more in there on the omni-channel part of the business. Obviously you have been ahead of the game as you mentioned and have been benefiting from it.
Maybe if you could talk about how long can this benefit continue, and then also how do you continue to stay ahead of the game, as a lot of your competitors are looking to put in some omni-channel strategies similar to yours?
Chad Kessler
I’ll let Michael talk to some of the technologies around it, but I think for us, I think it’s not just a matter of, is it continuing for a few quarters or a year or whatever it is. This is the way the customer behaves, this the way the customers shops going forward, and as a customer focused company, we want to make sure we’re always leading there and making it as easy as possible for her to participate in the brand.
We’ve talked about our profitable store fleet, as well as the flexibility we have in that store fleet. But the store as Jen mentioned and for the Aerie brand as well, the stores are a terrific opportunity for us to take advantage of omni-channel technologies and omni-channel experience.
The customer can participate with the brand in a physical way that is not possible with single channel brands. So we really believe that the future is mobile, the future is digital, the future is stores and we’re going to be prepared and do everything we can to be at the forefront of that, to make the customers experience as easy as possible.
Michael Rempell
And I don’t really have any specific comments about technology other than to say, it’s our job to make sure we stay ahead of the game. Through the last few years here, we’ve built a terrific team; we have a good pipeline of new capabilities that we plan on deploying over the next couple of years.
So I feel very confident that we’re going to continue to stay ahead of the competition.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.
Dana Telsey
As you think about the Aerie business and the AE business; is the performance difference between an in-store Aerie and its own Aerie box, how do you see that performance productivity metrics and merchandising assortment differ? And given the initiatives in marketing, how do you see the marketing spend evolving over the back half of the year?
Scott Hurd
In terms of Aerie productivity, I mean side-by-side stores are most productive in terms of operating profit. There’s not a significant difference in terms of operating profit across the stores in terms of how we run them.
It really comes down to square footage and how we staff those stores, and the rent tied to them. I’ll let Jen talk about the merchandising differences.
Jen Foyle
Yes, the side-by-sides are smaller. So, what we do when we position the merchandize strategy by format is, we make sure that the customer has the same experience in all formats.
So we go after the key items of the season and we make sure those are represented in every format, albeit it’s a smaller format, she still gets the same experience.
Scott Hurd
And just to circle off on your question around advertising, see we do expect advertising up, however we do expect to able to leverage our expense base and advertising investments have really been two-folds here for the back half. Continued investment in our digital marketing which has driven large traffic increases to our websites.
By the way, about 100% of our customer shop on their mobile devices before they shop the store. Still unquantifiable, but we do believe that we’re driving customers in to the store with that marketing as well, and then the marketing campaign that we’ve talked about.
But again expense leverage expected.
Judy Meehan
We have time for one more question.
Operator
Okay. And our final question comes from the line Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.
Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst
It's actually Jennifer on for Paul. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about international, both revenue and profitability in China, UK, Mexico and your franchise locations.
Scott Hurd
Not going to get in to specific of revenue by channel, but in terms of profitability, Mexico nicely profitable, Asia, improved profitability over last year in line with our expectations and targets for their growth; and UK, small business, three stores, not yet profitable, wait-and-see approach there.
Unidentified Analyst
And how about franchise?
Scott Hurd
Franchise is wonderfully profitable and we’ll continue to grow.
Judy Meehan
Okay, that concludes our call. Thanks for joining us everybody.
Have a great day and appreciate your interest in American Eagle Outfitters. Thank you.
Bye, bye.
Operator
This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.