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American Outdoor Brands, Inc.

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American Outdoor Brands, Inc.United States Composite

Q3 2020 · Earnings Call Transcript

Mar 17, 2021

Operator

Good day, everyone. And welcome to American Outdoor Brands Inc.

Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Liz Sharp, Vice President of Investor Relations for some information about today's call.

Liz Sharp

Thank you, and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain predictions, estimates and other forward-looking statements.

Our use of words like anticipate, project, estimate, expect, intend, should, indicate, suggest, believe, and other similar expressions is intended to identify those forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements also include statements regarding our product development, focus, objectives, strategies and vision; our strategic evolution; our market share and market demand for our products; market and inventory conditions related to our products and in our industry in general; and growth opportunities and trends.

Brian Murphy

Thanks Liz. And thanks everyone for joining us.

Today I'm excited to share our third quarter results, which exceeded our expectations for both net sales and net income. I believe our performance reflects not only the ongoing strength of the outdoor market, but more importantly, the value of our highly authentic brand portfolio, our unique Dock and Unlock strategy, the harvesting of our strong new product pipeline and investments we made in our business two to three years ago that are beginning to bear fruit.

These elements have long been core to our strategy, and they underlie the great results we’re reporting today. With a focus on the future five and even 10 years out, we will continue to make forward-looking investments that we believe will unlock the brand's full potential as they progress along their exciting path from Niche to Known, regardless of the direction the outdoor market takes in our post pandemic world.

Overall, however, it looks as though the floor has been raised for outdoor participation, and we expect a portion of those new entrants to continue recreating and our categories well past the current pandemic. Because of that, we're very excited to continue engaging with a much larger consumer base than we did before 2020.

Andy Fulmer

Thanks, Brian. I'm excited to share details of our strong third quarter results.

We delivered significant growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA that exceeded our expectations, as well as exceptional cash flow generation. Net sales for the quarter were $82.6 million compared to $43.3 million in the prior year, an increase of approximately 91% driven by favorable consumer trends and a consumer preference for our strong brand portfolio.

In fact, seven of our brands grew revenue more than 100% over the prior Q3. Historically, our second quarter sales have represented the highest point in our annual seasonality.

This year, however, Q3 will likely stand as our highest quarter, aligning with very robust POS trends that were occurring at the time, combined with retailer load-ins of inventory on new products from our Crimson Trace and UST brands, new customer additions for Crimson Trace and , and strong channel inventory replenishment made possible by effective inventory planning. Sales in our traditional channels were $46.2 million, an increase of 68.5% over the prior year quarter.

Net sales in our e-commerce channels were $36.5 million, an increase of 129% over the prior year. Our e-commerce channels include our direct-to-consumer sales as well as sales to retail customers that do not traditionally operate a physical brick-and-mortar store, but rather generate most of their sales on their own retail websites.

Operator

Our first question comes from John Kernan with Cowen.

John Kernan

Well guys, congrats, phenomenal quarter. Really great start, since the spin.

Brian Murphy

Yes, thanks John.

John Kernan

You gave a lot of compelling stats on growth across a broad range of outdoor activities, hunting, fishing, camping, I guess what does the growth of this installed base of consumers in this new interest across all of these activities mean for your long-term organic growth? Right, it feels like you're looking at a multi-year path to fairly significant organic top-line growth.

I'm just curious how things have changed maybe as we get into post-pandemic?

Brian Murphy

Sure. So certainly, with the increased participation with that installed base, which is much higher than it was in 2019 and our business being squarely in the center of some of the more popular activities that you mentioned, I do think it bodes well for us going forward, especially as we come out with new product suite.

We mentioned we're coming up with 300 new products this year, overall, our portfolio is at a higher ASP. So, reaching out to those new consumers, engaging with them.

We're doing that in our direct-to-consumer efforts in all of our digital marketing efforts. So, we haven't given any top line growth, which you know beyond this year.

But certainly, it's exciting for us. We're as optimistic as we can be that this new installed base will continue to – we'll be able to tap into that new base in a much larger way going forward.

Andy, anything you want to add to that?

Andy Fulmer

No. Yes.

Just – we're very excited with our overall – our new product portfolio and really servicing the needs of those, this new base of consumers we have.

John Kernan

Got it. Maybe Andy, another question for you.

Based on the guidance, you're now looking at a mid-teen EBITDAS margin or so based on the high and low end? What do you think the long-term margin of this business should look like, not just in fiscal 2022, but as we think to model out a few years?

What's the normalized EBITDAS margin as you scale this business?

Andy Fulmer

Yes. Unfortunately, I can't really get into much detail there beyond kind of what Brian and I talked about how the fact that we're very excited moving forward.

I would also point out that as we've seen throughout this year that we've really been able to leverage our fixed costs in a meaningful way. Outside of that, I can't really give you much more.

Brian Murphy

We plan, sorry, we plan to give our FY 2022 guidance at the next earnings call.

John Kernan

Understood. And I would imagine that the model – there's still a lot of fixed costs in this model given the growth potential in the industry, that's still a margin driving story going into fiscal 2022, and be honest, just the operating leverage in the business you see even beyond what you've already generated this year.

Andy Fulmer

Yes. I think that's a fair statement.

John Kernan

Okay. And then just on the cash balance is building on the balance sheet next year, there's going to be more cash, it looks like, certainly, given the economics of the business right now.

What are you seeing in terms of capital allocation and M&A?

Brian Murphy

Yes. We're definitely looking at, first and foremost, organic growth.

So, Andy mentioned some of the investments that we'll be making here shortly, looking ahead at a new ERP system, which we're really excited about. It will give us increased analytics.

And then also, like you said, M&A, I said in my prepared remarks that we are seeing an uptick in M&A right now, I've been in this industry for a while, and I can't say I've seen as much M&A as we're seeing right now, which is great. There's lots of opportunities out there.

The thing that Andy and I, I think, do really well is remain very disciplined in looking at these acquisitions. Multiples have risen a little bit, and we need to make sure it's the right deal for us, the right deal for our shareholders can plug into our dock and unlock strategy.

So, a few different areas, but those are the two primary ones.

John Kernan

Excellent. Thanks guys.

Best of luck.

Brian Murphy

Thank you.

Andy Fulmer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Stember with CL King.

Scott Stember

Good evening guys and congrats on a great quarter. And thanks for taking my questions.

Brian Murphy

Thanks Scott.

Andy Fulmer

Thanks Scott

Scott Stember

I'm just trying to dimensionalize, you talked about POS has come off of the elevated levels of Q3. And I'm just trying to talk about or just figure out the size of the drop-off and maybe try to figure out some of that due to the falloff in mix that we saw with attachments and things like that.

Maybe just give us a little more detail on that?

Andy Fulmer

Yes. Scott, this is Andy.

So, for Q3, we had some – that three of the things that I talked about in my comments, that really helped drive Q3, the way that we looked at it the retailer load in. So that was pretty much Crimson Trace scopes, our new product line launch there.

And UST, we had a load in of some of our tents sleeping bags and mattress pads. Those are really out of season load ins.

So that definitely helped us drive new customers. We have a new OEM relationship with Crimson Trace.

That again, when we look back, that's really a result of the spin-off. I don't believe we would have been able to have that relationship prior to the spin-off.

And then also Huiman, we were able to load in into the home and hardware channel, which is a new channel for Huiman. And then finally, that inventory replenishment we really have the inventory to be able to service our customers.

Our customers consistently say that our service levels stand out to them. So, we really had strong replenishment.

Then when you look at Q4 and what we guided into Q4, that really kind of takes into account the POS trends we're seeing now. And again, they're off the Q3 levels, as you said, but really very strong with our implied guidance.

Scott Stember

All right. And just maybe just tying into some of the reasons why it could be off.

Do you think that with mix kind of flattening out this last month that, that had an impact, like I was saying before, with attachment sales and things like that?

Andy Fulmer

I don't know. I think it could impact it, yes.

I think that's more closely tied with some of the brands in our Defender lane like Crimson Trace. But also, that the cold weather that whipped through the middle of the U.S.

and Southern U.S., I think, had a part in that as well in February. So quite a few places were closed, I think for a week.

So, I can't discount that as well.

Scott Stember

Okay. That's all I have for right now.

Thanks a lot.

Brian Murphy

Yes, thanks Scott.

Andy Fulmer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Wold with B. Riley Securities.

Eric Wold

Thank you. Good afternoon, guys.

Brian Murphy

Hi, Eric.

Eric Wold

A couple of questions. I guess, one, just a follow-up on the last one kind of around inventory.

You kind of talked about some of the strength in the quarter was the kind of nonseasonal or kind of out of season load in of the new products. I guess excluding that, how would you think about channel inventory levels in general, heading into spring/summer versus maybe normal kind of non-pandemic years?

And how – what behaviors are you seeing from the retailers in terms of desire to restock inventory versus normal periods? Are they as aggressive before?

Are they getting a little cautious or really no change?

Brian Murphy

Eric, this is Brian. So, what I would tell you is we've talked about in calls in the past that we've kind of shortened the lead time between our – what we're seeing in POS data.

Again, we can see about 50% or so of our sales in POS with our own supply chain. And so, we – what we're seeing there in POS is very well tied into the orders that we're getting from our customer base, so strong correlation.

And I don't – I'm not getting a sense from our customers that they are stocking up. I still think that there's healthy replenishment that's going on right now that's going out the door, where consumers are pulling that through at a rate that's consistent with what we're seeing in our data.

Andy Fulmer

Yes. And one thing I would add to that, Eric, is that I mentioned in my piece, the investment that we're making in Q4 on those marketing programs and some of the advertising with retailers.

We're really doing our best to really pull that inventory through the channel as that marketing machine to drive that demand to obviously pull in more replenishment.

Eric Wold

Perfect. And then a final question.

Obviously, big spike in participation during the pandemic, obviously, optimism that a lot of people do stay with these activities as the economy starts to reopen the kind of get more engaged. I guess maybe tough on the retail side, but maybe within your own e-commerce platform, what have you seen in terms of returning customers, repeat purchases, maybe an ability to kind of shift somebody who comes in a one-brand lane into another brand lane, how engaged are these kind of new customers being with the various activities?

Brian Murphy

Yes. Eric, this is Brian.

That's a good question. So, we are seeing what we call internally kind of a daily chain sort of behavior with some of our consumers.

So, we have over 500 micro influencers that we use, and a lot of times they will – they will use several of our brands. And that's really a good starting point for somebody who's getting into the industry, no matter where they're coming in, whether it's a new firearm or they're getting into hunting, or they're getting into fishing or camping.

So, there's kind of this ecosystem of micro influencers that we leverage pretty heavily and they kind of travel – kind of move the consumer and introduce them to some of the brands through that, in addition to our own websites. So, you'll see, like for example, lockdown, I think right now, our lockdown brand is doing a big, big launch for some new products.

And you'll see several of our brands being incorporated into that. Not in an intrusive way, but in a complimentary, some giveaways, things like that.

And then we're seeing those purchase patterns across at least our websites, which we have good visibility into. So, we do think that there's upside there and we're seeing customers come back.

Eric Wold

That's helpful. Thank you, guys.

Appreciate it.

Brian Murphy

Yes. Thank you.

Andy Fulmer

Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

James Hardiman

Good evening and congrats on another strong quarter here. So, it's come up – it's come up, but you spoke to a significant replenishment in the quarter.

I just want to make sure I understand where we are? Is that replenishment essentially complete and ultimately exiting the quarter, how correlated our point of sales, retail trends and the wholesale trends that you're seeing right now?

If you see an uptick or downtick, is that going to be pretty quickly reflected in your shipping patterns?

Andy Fulmer

Yes. James, this is Andy.

So, I'm trying to think of how to answer. So, our guidance again is really reflective of the POS trends that we're seeing right now as compared to Q3.

I don't know I f that helps.

Brian Murphy

Yes, it's pretty well correlated. The exceptions being, because we do launch – we're launching so many new products this year and we've got some load-ins in Q4.

So, some BUBBA products for example, some of those more spring seasonal type brands, that's going to skew the data a little bit.

James Hardiman

But ultimately loadings aside where we are in the upcoming quarter, we shouldn't think about incremental shipments being made to get inventory levels higher. That's already been completed in the previous quarter?

Is that the way to think about it?

Brian Murphy

Yes. I think that's – I think that's a valid assumption.

James Hardiman

Okay. Perfect.

And then Brian, a couple of times you've talked about M&A environment picking up and you alluded to a variety of reasons why you're seeing that uptick. Can you maybe give us some color as to what those reasons might be?

Brian Murphy

Sure. So again, I haven't seen this much activity in a long time.

I think that there's a record amount of funds on the sidelines with private equity that needs to be put to work. I think the fact that the industry is doing well has increased visibility for a lot of those financial buyers.

So, we're seeing more competition from in particular financial buyers that are stepping up. And in some cases, they may own a big portfolio company and have really began backing them and getting to the end of the industry.

So increased, I would say demand, and then as a result of that as well and the performance of some folks in the industry, they recognize that demand and they want to take some chips off the table. So, they're coming to market as well.

So, it's just – it's created an environment where we are seeing quite a bit more than we have in the past. With that said we're – obviously we're looking at those deals that come to market, but a big part of our strategy is Andy and I do a lot of outbound and cultivate our own pipeline of targets.

So that continues on as planned, and like I said earlier, we'll remain disciplined. So, while it's exciting, it's really exciting that there's a lot of activity out there.

We're going to be patient. We're going to find the right deal.

James Hardiman

Got it. And then just real quick clarification, Andy, if I do the math on the fourth quarter EBITDA margin, it seems like we're going from what had been sort of high-teens 20% to maybe 5% to 7%.

Obviously, there's some leverage there, right? You're guiding to lower sales sequentially.

So that's going to hurt margin a little bit. Is that it?

Or is there anything else in there that we should be cognizant of?

Andy Fulmer

Yes. So, I would say in Q4, there's a couple of different factors.

So, we have that additional $2 million to $3 million of low margin inventory that will impact margins. I said, in my comments, we expect gross margins to be kind of close as a percentage wise to Q3.

So then if you look back into Q1 and two, that margins were higher. And the fixed investments that we talked about there, they're not – it's not a permanent change in effect.

They are targeted advertising brand awareness initiatives, new product launches, launch initiatives that when you look at Q4 revenue, just the leverage, it doesn't pan out. But again, we're kind of looking at on a long-term basis.

So, we don't want to not invest in those types of projects, because they are going to gain – yield gains for us going forward.

James Hardiman

Make a lot of sense. Thanks Andy.

Thanks Brian.

Brian Murphy

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets.

Mark Smith

Hi, guys. I just wanted to ask quickly about e-commerce strength that it's been pretty phenomenal here the last couple of quarters, but talk about kind of how you can keep this momentum going kind of post pandemic as people get out and shop more in stores perhaps more than, than ordering online?

Brian Murphy

Yes. Hey, Mark this is Brian.

So, at a very basic level, I mean, we just launched these sites in the last call it 18 months, 24 months. And so, I think we're still in the early innings of our e-comm growth, specifically direct to consumer.

We really haven't – we haven't like cross sold many of the brands across the different websites, and so there's some low-hanging fruit there that I think we can continue to go after. But overall, I, again, I think it's in the early innings here.

So as, if behaviors do begin to change, I think, we're again, we're doing our best to have that conversation with the consumer. And also, like we said, in the past, we want to make sure we are where the consumer expects to find us.

So, having that dialogue with the consumer just increases their loyalty with our brands, and if they buy from us great, if they buy it from a retailer, great, we want to be there as well, so...

Mark Smith

Perfect. And let's talk about new products.

You launched a lot of really new products, but a lot of this would have been probably late, the around shot show time period, but can you talk about during Q3 how the new product mix was, and then kind of maybe the next few months or year what that the cadence for new launches looks like?

Andy Fulmer

Hey Mark, this is Andy. I'll take the percentage and then Brian can talk kind of more long-term.

So, yes, we were about 12.8%, which was down a little bit historically, but that really is interesting that really reflects just timing of launches and actually where we're launching. So, if we come out with a new product that may be out of season for a traditional retailer, but we're selling that through e-commerce that may affect kind of that new product.

And we look at that kind of at 12 and 24-month basis, and it makes more sense over the long-term.

Brian Murphy

Yes. And then I can speak to the longer-term, sorry, Mark, did you have another question?

Mark Smith

No, just following up on that, like the Crimson Trace products that launched during the quarter, can you talk about kind of the timing of when those were available for customers and if that's something that's really impacting Q4 from a new product perspective, much more than Q3.

Andy Fulmer

Mark, are you talking about the scopes?

Mark Smith

Yes, exactly. Yes.

Andy Fulmer

Yes. So, the scopes, that's one of those where we launched very exciting launch, couldn't be more thrilled with those 50 new products.

And if – when you look at kind of timeline, the timing of that is kind of out of season. So, we did have that load and we talked about.

And then we'll see some replenishment in other products or other customer activity into Q4, but that's an exciting product that we're really happy about going into fiscal 2022.

Brian Murphy

Yes. And Mark this is Brian.

So, on your – on the rest of your question related to launches at SHOT versus other times more broadly. So last year we were kind of – we began testing with certain brands, BUBBA is a good example, BUBBA, and a lot of fishing brands launched their new products at ICAST, which is like the SHOT Show for fishing.

And that happens in the summertime, but we have been launching new products throughout the year as a way to just continually engage with that consumer. And we found that it's very, very impactful and has led to not only higher e-commerce sales for us, but also better pull-through for our retailers.

So, this year you're going to see more about across our brands. So, you'll see some products that are hitting shelves in kind of the spring, summer timeframe.

And then you'll see some more kind of throughout the summer and into the fall, that would have traditionally had a big launch right around Schrade SHOT Show.

Mark Smith

Okay. And then as we look at kind of the strategy on new products, as the Crimson Trace, a good example where we did see more high priced – higher priced products that you launched in the optics line, or will we see more of a kind of good, better, best, or how do you feel about the pricing and what consumer and price points you want to go after across all your brands within those products?

Brian Murphy

Yes, that's a great question, Mark. This is Brian.

So, this is a strategy that we put into place a few years ago, so it's kind of working its way through our product development pipeline. And this has been a strategy, I think we've executed very well on.

So, scopes was a part of that strategy, grinder is getting into some of the MEAT Your Maker! products was definitely part of that strategy, tents and sleeping bags, other parts.

Other products, we kind of teased out if you – I mentioned in my prepared remarks about the SHOT Show, new product premiere. So, getting into categories like smart vault doors that you can install in a closet and essentially turned your closet into a vault, and that's going to be at a much higher ASP.

So, we're going to continue to launch products that are higher ASP's, we're not as focused on the good – good, better, best. We're really not as focused on the good side of things I would say that most of our brands play in that better to best and that certainly helps us out with our ASP strategy.

Mark Smith

Perfect. That's helpful.

Thank you, guys.

Brian Murphy

Yes, thank you.

Andy Fulmer

Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Our next question is a follow-up from Scott Stember with CL King.

Scott Stember

Yes. In your opening remarks, you guys talked about you expect a portion of the people that are coming to the market during COVID to stick.

Just, can you frame that out? Do you think the lion's share will stay in this?

Because later on you talked about this new foundational layer of growth, which offers a huge opportunity. So I'm just trying to – are you seeing anything, hearing anything that people are leaving as they're starting to fly in the last couple of weeks, or just try to nail that down?

Brian Murphy

Hey Scott, this is Brian. I can start with the last part.

I haven't seen anything that indicates that people are leaving. I've seen some studies out there, some – they've pulled parts of the population and folks that have gotten into the outdoors for the first time.

And the majority of those individuals said that they intend to continue recreating outdoors, they didn't necessarily stay at the same level. But a larger percentage of those did intend to continue to do those activities outdoors.

So that's the best data that we have right now, it's kind of coming out in real time, but that's all I can – I don't know, Andy, anything else that we've talked about that you can think of?

Andy Fulmer

Yes, I think that, I guess the only other thing I would add, and we talked about this a little bit last call is, going forward on top of that, what we believe is a new foundational level, we're focusing on new product categories, new customers and channels and those new large total addressable market to help us grow going forward.

Brian Murphy

Yes. Scott, I'm going to hijack your question for a second, because, and I was hoping you come up here, but there are parts of our business that really haven't begun to be explore.

Like we talked about e-comm, we talked about the ability to cross sell our brands. International for us is hardly tapped at this point.

Our brands, in their infancy and where they have permission to play or where we believe they have permission to play is a mess. And we've talked about getting into some of these larger total addressable markets, and in some cases outside of our traditional, called the traditional outdoors, we managed to get example of that locked down as another great example of that, MEAT Your Maker!.

So, it's – people are very focused on outdoor participation and that's great that's our core consumer, but there are also some other pieces of our strategy that we've really focused on to – that we believe can be tapped into going forward.

Scott Stember

Got it. That was very helpful.

Thank you.

Andy Fulmer

Yes. Thanks, Scott.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions in queue at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr.

Murphy for closing remarks.

Brian Murphy

All right. Well, thank you operator and thanks everyone for joining us today.

We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Happy St.

Patrick's Day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect.

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