Feb 20, 2015
Executives
William Pitts - Director, IR Patrick Dempsey - President & CEO Chris Stephens - SVP, Finance & CFO
Analysts
Radigan - KeyBanc Tim Wojs - Baird Peter Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton Scott Graham - Jefferies Edward Marshall - Sidoti & Company
Operator
Good morning. My name is Laurel.
And I will be conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Barnes Group Inc.
Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I'll now turn the call over to William Pitts, Director, Investor Relations.
Please go ahead, sir.
William Pitts
Thank you, Laurel. Good morning and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings call.
With me are Barnes Group's, President and CEO, Patrick Dempsey and Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Chris Stephens. If you have not received a copy of our earnings press release you can find it on the investor relations section of our corporate website at bginc.com.
During our call we will be referring to the earnings release supplement slides which are also posted on our website. Our discussion today includes certain non-GAAP financial measures which provide additional information that we believe is helpful to investors.
These measures have been reconciled to the related GAAP measures in accordance with SEC Regulations. You'll find a reconciliation table on our website as part of our press release and in the Form 8-K submitted to the SEC.
Certain statements we make on today's call both during the opening remarks and during the question-and-answer session maybe forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected.
Please consider the risks and uncertainties that are mentioned in today's call and are described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings are available through the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at bginc.com.
Before we begin our prepared remarks, I want to remind everyone that our financial results discussion is based on continuing operations. We will now open today's call with commentary from Patrick, followed by a review of our fourth quarter and full year results and our initial 2015 outlook from Chris.
After that we'll open up the call for questions. Patrick?
Patrick Dempsey
Thanks, Bill. And good morning, everyone.
Barnes Group achieved outstanding financial performance in 2014 as we continue to execute our profitable growth strategy. Sales were up 16% for the year with solid organic growth of 6% and a Männer acquisition contribution of 10%.
Adjusted operating margin increased 250 basis points to 15.4%, driven by meaningfully increases in both of our segments. On an adjusted basis, income from continuing operations was $2.34 per diluted share, up 28% from a year ago.
These excellent results were achieved through solid execution of our strategy to expand into highly engineered and differentiated industrial technologies which provide innovative solutions to the markets and customers we serve. So while Chris will give more details on our quarterly and full year financial performance, I'd like to take some time to discuss the inroads made on our strategic journey this year.
And also why I firmly believe we are well positioned for another good year in 2015. In the execution of our growth strategy, we've been focused on transforming our portfolio, not only from the outside in with recent value-enhancing acquisitions, but also from the inside out, investing in our existing businesses and global workforce to drive profitable growth.
In 2014, the smooth integration of Männer into the BGI Industrial family added to our capabilities in the plastic injection molding arena and helped solidify our position as a leading global provider of hot runner systems and high precision molds. Männer's performance has been exceptional, far better than originally modeled.
And the medical and personal care markets that generates approximately two-thirds of their sales remains stable at elevated levels, supporting our plans for future global expansion. Although not a 2014 event, our previous acquisition, Synventive, delivered outstanding performance as well, generating record sales and operating profits as demand for their hot runner technology continues to increase.
At Aerospace, our new component repair programs, or CRPs, give us the right to provide overhaul and repair services on certain critical components for the CF6 and CFM56 over the life of these successful engine programs. With the installed base of the CFM56 engine, the much larger portion of the CRP programs estimated at over 21,000 engines today and growing, and with the number of shop visits not expected to peak until the early 2020s, we remain confident these programs will generate a meaningful revenue stream with improved MRO margins for some years to come.
With respect to internal investment, our capital expenditures were $57 million for the year, with approximately half of that targeted at growth platforms that are expected to drive future revenues and allow us to prosper in the long-term. We continue to augment our advanced manufacturing capabilities across the portfolio, while at the same time further expanding our engineering proficiencies.
This has led to major wins such as our recent announcement last quarter on the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine for the new Airbus A350, which further solidifies our position as a leading global provider of complex aerospace OEM products and services. In direct alignment with our vision and strategy, 2014 saw significant efforts in building our intellectual property program and promoting innovation.
Building a culture of innovation at Barnes Group became a cornerstone of these efforts as we worked to differentiate our business and enhance our competitiveness in the marketplace. To that end, we institutionalized the Barnes Global Engineering and Technology Forum, leveraging our worldwide engineering talent by promoting a heightened level of collaboration, innovative thinking, and action across all of our businesses.
With the help of this Forum, we advanced the disciplined phase-gate process for quickly identifying and screening great ideas, funding those opportunities and moving them from inception to launch through a very structured approach. While today's economic environment can be volatile and present many challenges, we recognize that our ability to innovate and adapt is critical to our future.
So let me comment about the economic environment and global market trends we see heading into 2015. Certainly the last quarter has seen some significant volatility on two fronts in particular.
First with about 30% of our business in Europe, the strengthening of the US dollar to the euro will create headwind on the revenue line, but significantly less so on the operating profit line. That's in part due to the nature of our global manufacturing footprint where the cost structure generally resides where the revenues are generated.
So this will have some impact on our revenue growth for 2015, less so on earnings. And Chris will touch upon that in our outlook discussion.
The other recent noteworthy economic event relates to the significant drop in oil prices. We have minimum direct exposure into energy markets, so we're not expecting any meaningful impact there.
We will, however, monitor how lower oil prices may affect Aerospace end markets. It is our belief that in the short to medium term, that lower oil prices will not have a significant impact on the aircraft production of Boeing and Airbus and correspondingly to our OEM business.
Longer term, it is just too early to tell. In the Aerospace aftermarket, the low oil price environment may ultimately provide some upside to the business, but I'd describe it as a modest expectation at this point.
More central to Barnes Group for the upcoming year are the global trends in the major end markets we serve, general industrial, transportation and aerospace. In our general industrial end markets, we're growing with our customers in emerging markets.
We are seeing the benefits of stable to growing manufacturing trends, as indicated by global manufacturing PMI metrics. And we're well positioned to meet the growing medical device requirements of an aging population through our offerings of complex high capitation molds and hot runner systems.
Some notable industrial related innovations underway include the development of advanced spring technology with a new patent on a hybrid compressor refab [ph] design for greener, quieter and more efficient refrigerators, automotive HVAC, and other compressor applications. Also our ongoing investment in the development of hot runner side gate technology for medical markets that will provide unparalleled control of the flow of hot plastic from the hot runner into the mold.
In transportation, advanced technologies and highly engineered precision components provided by Barnes are playing an even more critical role to achieve the demanding fuel efficiency requirements of the future. In addition, the inclusion of greater amounts of lightweight metals and plastic provides for penetration rates that exceed global growth in light vehicle production, which is expected to increase again in 2015.
Barnes Industrial participates in these global trends in a number of ways. We are a leader in the development of spring technologies for the new 8, 9 and 10-speed transmissions coming to market.
We are advancing further our position stamping technologies in the manufacture of our GDI, gas direct injection offerings. And success with our newly developed active gate technology helps to sustain our leading position with hot runner applications in the automotive industry.
At Aerospace, innovation is likewise alive and well. We excel in complex, difficult to manufacture engine components where our engineering talent creates true value for our customers.
Innovation is primarily found in the processes that support our operations such as the major strides we have made in the development of hot exchange dye technology, the creation of new tooling used in additive manufacturing and in achieving major cycle time reductions used in advanced machining technologies, coupled with leading edge tool design. In retrospect, 2014 saw tremendous progress in our strategy to drive engineered differentiated industrial technologies and innovative solutions to our end markets.
We are on a clear path of transforming our company to meet the current and future needs of our customers. 2015 will be another year where we are equally as focused on executing of our vision and long-term strategy.
Internally we are investing heavily in the next generation of our Barnes Enterprise System to accelerate our continuous improvement efforts and drive further margin expansion, while simultaneously investing in our people and the continued development of our global workforce. And as M&A opportunities that are consistent with our vision and strategy present themselves in the upcoming year, we're in a solid position to execute on them.
We realize that continued execution of our growth strategy requires vigilance in the management of capital. So beginning in 2015 we have implemented a couple of changes to our management performance programs to more closely align our incentives with capital efficiency.
First, for our annual incentive award we will reintroduce a cash metric specifically on meeting working capital reduction targets. Second, for our long-term incentive award we are including a return on invested capital performance measure to drive long-term value creation.
So before I turn the call over to Chris, from the many accomplishments just cited, you can see why I am pleased with the transformational progress made in 2014 and why I believe we're well positioned for another good year in 2015. I'd like to thank all Barnes Group employees for their dedication, hard work and contributions to a successful 2014.
And I look forward to meeting the challenges of the upcoming year with this exceptional team. With that as a strategic backdrop, Chris will now take us through how the progress made is translating into financial performance.
Chris?
Chris Stephens
Thank you, Patrick. And good morning, everyone.
Let me begin by providing highlights of our fourth quarter and full-year results, and then with our initial guidance for 2015. Looking at Slide 2 in our supplement, fourth quarter sales were $310 million, up 7% over last year, driven by 6% organic sales growth and one additional month of Männer acquisition revenues versus a year ago, offset by FX headwind of 3%.
For the quarter, income from continuing operations was $33.3 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, compared to $26.3 million, or $0.47 per diluted share a year ago. On an adjusted basis income from continuing ops was $0.62 per diluted share, an increase of 9%.
This quarter's adjusted earnings exclude the impact of Männer short-term purchase accounting adjustments of $800,000 pretax and $500,000 pretax for final closure costs related to Associated Spring's Saline, Michigan facility. Taken together these items contributor $0.02 to adjusted diluted earnings from continuing ops.
For the full year sales were up 16% with organic sales growth of 6%. Income from continuing operations was $120.5 million, or $2.16 per diluted share, compared to $72.3 million, or $1.31 per diluted share in 2013.
On an adjusted basis income from continued ops was up 28% to $2.34 per diluted share compared to $1.83 in 2013. This year's 2014's adjusted diluted earnings from continuing ops excludes the impact of Männer's short-term purchase accounting adjustments of $8.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, and Saline closure costs of $6 million pretax, or $0.07 per diluted share.
For 2013 income from containing ops included $7.3 million pretax, or $0.10 per diluted share, of Männer short-term purchase accounting adjustments and transaction costs, $10.5 million pretax, or $0.12 per diluted share, of non-recurring CEO transition costs, and finally a tax charge of $16.4 million, or $0.30 per diluted share associated with the April 2013 US Tax Court's unfavorable decision. Let me now comment on segment performance, beginning with Industrial.
Industrial's fourth quarter sales were $198 million, up 8%. The Männer business, acquired in October of 2013, provided $10.4 million of acquisition sales, while Industrial's organic sales grew 7%.
FX negatively impacted sales by 5%, or $9 million, primarily driven by the strength of the US dollar versus the euro. Fourth quarter operating profit was $27 million, up from $15.5 million in the prior-year period, benefiting from the contribution of Männer and higher organic sales, partially offset by the Männer short-term purchase accounting adjustments and Saline restructuring charges just reference.
So ex these items, adjusted operating profit was $28.3 million, or 24% from a year ago, with adjusted operating margins of 14.3%, up 190 basis points. Industrial's full year sales were $822 million, up 20%, while organic sales grew 4%.
Männer provided $114 million of acquisition sales in 2014, and FX headwind reduced sales by $7 million or 1%. Full year operating profit was $108.4 million, benefiting from the contribution of Männer and higher organic sales, again partially offset by Männer short term purchase accounting adjustments and Saline restructured charges.
Excluding these items, adjusted operating profit was $122.9 million, up 43%, while adjusted operating margins expanded at 14.9%, which was up 240 basis points. At Aerospace, fourth quarter sales grew 4% to $112 million, with sales growth in the OEM and aftermarket MRO businesses being partially offset by lower aftermarket spare parts sales.
Fourth quarter operating profit was $21.6 million compared to $18.6 million for the prior year period. OP benefited from increased sales in the OEM and MRO businesses, partially offset by increased employee related costs and the profit impact of lower spare parts sales.
Operating margin was 19.3%, up 200 basis points. Aerospace full year sales grew 9% to $440 million.
Similar to the quarter's performance, increased sales from the OEM and aftermarket MRO businesses were partially offset by lower aftermarket spare parts sales. 2014 operating profit was $71.6 million as compared to $51.3 million last year, benefiting from increased sales in our OEM business, higher profits in MRO driven by our CRP programs and the absence of an inventory valuation adjustment taken in the third quarter of 2013.
These benefits were partially offset by the profit impact of lower spare parts sales and increased employee related costs. 2014 operating margin for Aerospace ended the year at 16.3%.
Aerospace backlog was $523 million at the end of the fourth quarter, up 2% sequentially from the third. 2014's effective tax rate from continuing ops was 27.6% compared with 32.8% in 2013.
Excluding last year's tax charge mentioned earlier, the 2013 adjusted affected text rate was 17.5%. The rate increase this year over last year's adjusted rates is due to the mix of earnings attributable to higher tax jurisdictions, the expiration of certain tax holidays, and the increase in the US repatriation of a portion of current year foreign earnings.
Regarding share count, our fourth quarter average diluted shares outstanding was 55.5 million shares, while quarter end basic share count outstanding was 54.5. No repurchases were made during the fourth quarter, and 2.4 million shares remain available for repurchase under existing Board authorizations.
Cash generation continues to be strong, as full year cash provided by operating activities was approximately $187 million. Free cash flow, which we define as operating cash flow less CapEx, was an adjusted $117 million for 2014 versus $83 million last year.
With respect to debt, our year end debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.8 times, down from 2 times in the third quarter. And at year end under our existing senior debt covenants, additional borrowings of approximately $400 million would be allowed.
Now let's turn to our initial 2015 continuing operations outlook on Slide 4. We expect 2015 organic revenue growth of 6% to 9% with total revenue growth of 3% to 6% after consideration of approximately 3% of FX headwind.
Operating margin outlook is in the range of 16% to 17%. GAAP earnings from continue operations are expected to be in the range of $2.40 to $2.55 per diluted share.
Excluding $0.02 of remaining Männer short term purchase accounting adjustments expected in 2015, adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be the range of $2.42 to $2.57, up 3% to 10% from 2014's adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.34. For 2015, our earnings are more heavily weighted toward the second half, approximately 55%, with our first quarter expected to reflect only a modest increase over last year's adjusted first quarter EPS of $0.50 per diluted share.
Our Aerospace segment is the primary driver for a more heavily weighted second half, given forecasted unit deliveries and end customer demand ramp for new programs such as the A350. We don't anticipate any unusual calendarization in our Industrial segment, except in Q1 with the Chinese New Year.
Our CapEx outlook for 2014 is in the range of the $55 million to $60 million and cash conversion again is expected to be approximately 100% of net income. There are, however, a few specific headwinds we face entering 2015.
As Patrick mentioned, FX will impact our results, primarily on the top line. Our outlook assumes a euro rate of $1.15 for the year, which would negatively impact revenue by about $35 million to $40 million, less so on the bottom line, and the impact of both of these has been reflected in our 2015 guidance.
Pension expense will be another headwind. There are several factors causing approximately $7 million of increased pension expense, or $0.09 per share negative impact in 2015.
The discount rate was reduced to 4.25%, mortality tables have been updated and the return on asset assumption has been adjusted to 8.25% from 9% as we looked to de-risk our pension program, which is closed to new participants. And lastly our 2015 expected tax rate is approximately 30%, primarily reflecting the expiration of certain tax holidays.
That tax rate increases a headwind of approximately $0.08 per share. So in summary, 2014 was an excellent year for Barnes Group.
We continue to make significant investments in our businesses, advancing our ability to deliver differentiated industrial technologies. Our balance sheet is in a great position.
And coupled with a solid cash flow generation in 2014 and expectations for 2015, we're well positioned for further growth investments and acquisition opportunities. Operator, we will now open the call for questions.
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Joe Radigan with KeyBanc.
Your line is open.
Joe Radigan
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Patrick Dempsey
Morning.
Chris Stephens
Hello.
Joe Radigan
First, just trying to reconcile the guidance, if you assume the mid-point of the revenue and the operating margin ranges you gave it seems that EPS range looks fairly conservative and is there a variance Chris below the line that you are expecting either in other income or is there risk to that tax rate being high. I'm just trying to figure out if there's any other moving parts in there.
Chris Stephens
Yes, Joe. No one particular item.
We look at the top line, the headline from – mainly from translation in terms of the revenue side given the growth of 3% to 6% and when we walk that done to earnings per share, given the 16% to 17% operating margins we get a little bit benefit actually just on that line alone, just on operating margin because we're translating those sales on a higher operating income, so you get the margin benefit there. But really nothing below that, share count should be roughly around 56 million or so, tax rate 30% to low 30%.
So nothing specific, Joe.
Joe Radigan
Okay. And then how much were spares down in the quarter and then the full year of 2014 and then obviously it's not that easy to predict, but would do you expect spare parts growth to be in 2015?
Chris Stephens
So, Joe, RSPs were down 4% in – 5% in the quarter and approximately 5% for the full year. I would note that in terms of Q3 and Q4, they did sequentially improve.
As we look out for 2015 as it pertains to our aerospace business, aftermarkets in total were looking at mid teens which is primarily consist of MRO been in the high teens and right now we remain conservative with RSPs our outlook is flat.
Joe Radigan
Okay. And then, I mean, obviously there is volatility in that spare parts piece and I know that what GE says is not a direct read, but their part shipments were up I think 24%, orders were up 37%.
And I would think at least the directional trend I would think would be somewhat of a read-through. So, can you – Patrick can you just kind of talk about what's going on there in terms of the volatility again?
Patrick Dempsey
Absolutely. First let me say that the RSPs are a key strategic part of our aerospace business.
We entered into them as long term investments spanning the life of the engines which was 25 years plus. These programs have been and will continue to be a great investment for Barnes group and our shareholders, creating a strong economic return.
As I think about 2014 in particular, there are two main factors that impacted the RSPs. That is one it was of the mix between spare parts sales on the CFM56 engine and the CF6 engine.
We've grown the modern CFM engine been offset by the decline of the CF6, as well as the earlier models of the CFM, resulting in a net flat to down revenue line in 2014.. The second item that contributed in 2014, on the CF6 there's an intermediate distributor which was de-stocking throughout 2014 and we believe we'll need to restock in 2015.
So those two factors ultimately resulted in our results and as you point out, put us out of sync maybe with some of the OE's. But underlying that I would still highlight that as we look at it by an engine model, by engine model basis, we are directionally inline with the market.
Joe Radigan
Okay. And then maybe last question for me.
Can you talk about the initial success rate you're having marketing your MRO services under CRP agreement, either – can you talk a new customer ads or are there any quantifiable metrics or is it still too early there in the process?
Patrick Dempsey
I think it's too early to make it quantifiable metrics, but I will say we're very pleased with how the CRP have got off and running. The aerospace team is very aggressive in terms of its marketing of these new services, now that we have – we are the OEM license provider worldwide and we have had a number of new successes, not necessarily ones we want to, you know, advertise yet, but ultimately for the first six months of CRP number two, we've been extremely please.
Joe Radigan
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Patrick Dempsey
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs with Baird. Your line is open.
Tim Wojs
Yes. Good morning, everybody.
Chris Stephens
Good morning, Tim.
Patrick Dempsey
Morning, Tim.
Tim Wojs
Just I guess, just on – just touching a little bit on the sub segment guidance, maybe just around margins, can you give us a little bit more color what you're expecting in the industrial business in the aero business, just from a margin perspective in 2015?
Patrick Dempsey
Yes, from the – as we think about the outlook for both aerospace and industrial what we've indicated in the past is that mid-teens for our industrial segments while we target high teens of the aerospace, what I think is the key driver for our guidance going into 2015 what we have focused on more at the end markets and the macro trends within those markets and this products and services we are providing. As it pertains to aerospace, we're moving into the year with a strong backlog of $523 million which supports our full year outlook.
As Chris mentioned unfortunately it's backend loaded, so that’s going to create a lower revenue line and corresponding bottom line in the first quarter. However on the aftermarket side, we continue to be very bullish as it pertains to the MRO with the addition of a full year with the CRP's in 2015 and correspondently we're forecasting high teens in terms of the MRO.
On industrial side, the primary end markets we focus on are general industrial and transportation. General industrial we're targeting mid single digits, top line growth with the primary drivers being the strength of the tool and dye industry, as well as the demand for medical devices.
And on the transmission side, we continue to see robustness in global automotive targeting mid single – low single digits I would say to mid single digits are in auto because our penetration rates of plastics into the auto industry actually exceeds production rates.
Tim Wojs
Okay. I guess, the question I'm trying to get at is, if I look at just a midpoints of your, I guess, implied EBIT and implied revenue range, I think it's about 40% plus incrementals and you do have a headwind from pension, I know FX helps to offset that a little bit.
But I mean, that’s much higher than what you guys have done historically. So, I'm just wondering where the, I guess, the continent [ph] is in the margin improvement in some of the businesses and its stability I guess, especially with spare parts being fat?
Patrick Dempsey
Sure. And roughly that, I'll call that 40% range, you're exactly right.
So, we – the simple answer for that is just the FX impact on the top line. If you actually adjust back for FX, put roughly a 35 to 40 million back, our operating margin leverage of 25% to 30% historically is what you'll see in that number.
Recognizing the FX on the top line, not so much in the bottom line given the global nature of our business and where we manufacture versus where we ship, is less so, so you're seeing roughly a 35% to 40% implied operating margin leverage in 2015 guidance.
Tim Wojs
Okay. And then…
Chris Stephens
And I would add to that, Tim, I would add to that, that as you think about our guidance for 2015, it is in absence of any significant contribution in terms of the RSPs growth and think that is evidence of the great progress we've been making in terms of executing our strategy to move towards becoming a more diversified provider of engineered products and differentiated industrial technologies, reflecting some of the great acquisitions, not only the acquisitions we've made, but the entire innovation and margin mindset that we're driving into their legacy businesses.
Tim Wojs
Okay. And RSPs are 5, but I would assume also the capital application in terms of M&A or buybacks that’s included here right?
Chris Stephens
Yes. It's included in the assumptions, that’s right.
Patrick Dempsey
Yes. And just to point of clarification, on a comment that Chris made, he made a reference to 55 to 60 million in CapEx, that is for 2015.
Chris Stephens
That’s right, yes. That’s right.
Tim Wojs
Okay. And then lastly, just you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you are introducing an ROIC metric into your long-term incentive program.
I guess how large of a component is it that and any color on what the long-term ROIC target is?
Patrick Dempsey
Well, first I would highlight that the ROIC has always been a measure. The history Barnes Group is that we are historically an EVA.
We were an EVA oriented company. And so, I think as we continue on our executing a strategy it became evident that bringing it back into the incentive compensation was a good thing to do in terms of not only driving focus internally, but also been able to highlight it externally.
At this juncture we are not indicating what the targets are, but they are on an absolute measure and they are both annual for DWC, as well as over three year period for the ROIC.
Tim Wojs
Okay. Nice job on the quarter.
Thanks, guys.
Patrick Dempsey
Thank you.
Chris Stephens
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Pet Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead.
Peter Skibitski
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Nice quarter.
Patrick Dempsey
Thanks, Pete.
Chris Stephens
Thanks, Pete.
Peter Skibitski
And so I – guys I look to move to the focus on the working capital, on the long-term move to ROIC, does this mean any kind of change in a philosophy on either M&A or new CRPs, because I would say you've been relatively aggressive on M&A and on CRP investments, should we think that's going to change at all with this move toward ROIC?
Patrick Dempsey
The short answer is no. We will continue to invest in the business for the long-term which is a practice we've always employed.
The ROIC is to heightened the awareness against capital efficiency. Having said that, we are very much continuing to focus on M&A activities with tremendous amount of work been done by the team in the background on that – in that area.
Our primary area of focus is continue around the constant plastic injection mold industry which might complements our two first acquisitions into that space, both on to our existing businesses and at the same time we're also looking at additional markets that might align with our overall strategic direction. So, full speed ahead from our perspective as it pertains to M&A.
Peter Skibitski
Okay. And I guess you had to be pleased that with the CRP programs already projecting pretty strong growth there.
Can you mind us – are the CRP programs, are they additive to aerospace EBIT margin?
Patrick Dempsey
Yes. They will have a nice impact on improving MRO margins, which in turn will impact total aerospace.
As we are also very pleased as you stated in terms of their performance right out of the gate. We entered into them again and like the programs investments.
So they are going to spend through 230 – 2035 as an example and in terms of their contribution to the aerospace results, we think we're going to be a strong contributor.
Peter Skibitski
That’s great. And maybe just to end up with a couple housekeeping for Chris.
Chris, what's your expected cash pension contribution in 2015 and then just directionally for D&A, I know you probably have less Männer amortization. I was just wondering directionally for D&A how that’s shaping up for 2015?
Chris Stephens
So, D&A roughly 80 million or so, it's pretty consistent with what we saw into the 2014 and then the pension contribution, nothing abnormal. We contributed a little less than 10 million this year, in 2014 we expect that same level going into 2015.
No significant cash contribution required in 2015 for pension plans.
Peter Skibitski
Got it.
Chris Stephens
Good.
Patrick Dempsey
All right. Thanks, Pete.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Scott Graham
Hey, good morning. Nice quarter.
Patrick Dempsey
Good morning, Scott.
Chris Stephens
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Graham
I wanted to just maybe look at the guidance in a little bit of a different way. I assume that you guys are sticking to your CRP accretion view of $0.08 to $0.10 a share?
Chris Stephens
That's correct.
Scott Graham
Okay. Well, obviously the naysayer's will strip that out and I guess maybe I am kind of taking that angle right now, of your guidance and say that the low end implies actually a decline in earnings.
And the high end kind of like 6% or 7% earnings on what is a fairly robust organic expectation. Chris you indicated additionally that the FX hits the top line obviously a lot more than the bottom line.
Chris Stephens
Right.
Scott Graham
So something for me is a maybe a little bit lost in translation here, in terms of why, and I know that the incrementals seem high. But based on the walk through it almost feels like they should be even higher.
Where are we losing some earnings?
Chris Stephens
So Scott, let me just kind of walk from 234. As you mentioned, we did state and we continue to reiterate that CRP is are going to contribute in that $0.08 to $0.10 range this year, recognize incrementally that’s probably about $0.05 or $0.06 coming off of 2014.
So when you walk that up, as well as the contributions from industrial and aerospace in overall earnings per share, then you have to back it down unfortunately for two big hits. And one is the pension expense roughly $0.09, as well tax rate being approximately $0.08, to get you to do that midpoint of our range of let's say, $2.50 roughly.
So, we're walking it up, probably before those items, you're talking double-digit EPS growth on an organic growth that we think is quite healthy 6% to 9% heading into 215 – 2015, but that’s the – those are the two primary drivers that are backing us down.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Edward Marshall with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead.
Edward Marshall
Good morning.
Chris Stephens
Morning, Ed.
Edward Marshall
The question you just did, did you say $0.09 of pension headwind?
Chris Stephens
Yes.
Edward Marshall
Is that incremental or is that the full pension expense…
Chris Stephens
No, that would be incremental.
Edward Marshall
Incremental.
Chris Stephens
Yes, that’s incremental going to next year, just as well as the tax rate of roughly $0.08.
Edward Marshall
So its about 16 higher that – 16 million or 17 million higher. What is – what was last year's expense and what do you expected to be for 2015?
Chris Stephens
On the pension expense side?
Edward Marshall
Yes.
Chris Stephens
Yes. So we're going for about 1 million or 2 million in pension expense to this 8 or 9 level.
So its significant. So $7 million headwind going into next into next year.
When you normalize our pension expense and you just kind of go of pace for 2014 you're talking about an incremental $7 million headwind.
Edward Marshall
Right. Okay.
That math works…
Chris Stephens
Yes.
Edward Marshall
Okay. My estimates were higher first.
Okay. Did you enter into a third CRP during the quarter or was it just the cash payout that came through, was there linger in cash payment?
Chris Stephens
We did not enter into a third CRP, and as you correctly state, the cash payment were spread out over different periods of time, so that’s what you're seeing.
Edward Marshall
How many more cash payments are there?
Chris Stephens
One.
Edward Marshall
One.
Chris Stephens
One. Yes, second quarter of this year, roughly $20 million left.
Edward Marshall
Okay. The 3% headwind that you have for FX, what is the euro to dollar conversion that you're assuming, because we're down roughly what 17% right now?
Chris Stephens
Yes.
Edward Marshall
What are you assuming?
Chris Stephens
So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, 115 is the assumption right now.
Edward Marshall
115.
Chris Stephens
115, so we went through the planning period, kind of in that and we saw a significant drop as we all saw right from December through January. We recast our outlook for 2015 reflecting of €115.
Edward Marshall
So when you talk about maybe the low end of your guidance range, and you talk about the strengthening dollar and maybe I guess you could parse in your outlook with that. Do you assume that 115 is kind of your starting point and then weaker dollar – stronger dollar rather from there, were lower to the low end…
Chris Stephens
Yes…
Edward Marshall
Just help me understand kind of what you're gotten there?
Chris Stephens
That’s right. We would have incremental headwind guiding to lower side.
Edward Marshall
So that change from your assumption?
Chris Stephens
Right, right.
Edward Marshall
And then final as we look at the aerospace margin in particular quarter, and I don't want to get too excited because I think its one of those a good margin quarters, equally had one of the fourth quarter of last year. Is there something seasonally maybe with the contribution or compensation there that maybe hits in the first half of the year not the back half or is this the result of the CRPs kind of rolling through.
Just help me kind of understand that, so we can look at that from a modeling perspective?
Chris Stephens
Sure. There's a couple of – Ed, there's a couple of factors, in the fourth quarter 19.3% was a fabulous quarter for aerospace, and what it reflects was timing of shipments in the fourth quarter, as you highlight it happened in 2013 and it is going to happen again in 2014.
So as I mentioned earlier, aerospace is schedule as such that its backend loaded. It occurred in this most recent quarter.
The 19.3 as you mentioned was also added to buy the benefit of CRPs and the shipment of some programs which are developed mental nature are built over a longer period of time, but then shipped in the fourth quarter.
Edward Marshall
Okay. Because I remember last call, couple of question, couple last call, I think we talked about maybe peakish [ph] type margins or mature margins in that business between 16% and 17%?
Is that still accurate even with the CRP programs you expected to go from there?
Chris Stephens
I continue to reference high teens for aerospace as our target. And I think in that high teens it reflects contributions from CRP's, it reflects contributions from RSPs and as I continue to reference RSPs right now are not at the level we would like, but at the same time, the margins continue to be robust reflecting the strength of the remainder of the business.
Edward Marshall
We talked a bit about the top line growth in the back half of the year, especially with the A350 ramp. I'm just curious as you kind of ramp up production in that line, maybe throughout 2015, are there any specific changes to maybe the capital that you need or the different line structure or maybe rev [ph] that may affect maybe the margin that goes along with that?
I me an, is there a ramp in the production margin or was it so similar to previous parts that you provided that it's just opening up more lines and there not going to be more of a margin decrement to it?
Chris Stephens
We are fully capacitated at this juncture for the support A350 and that has been a tremendous effort in terms of production readiness planning that has gone on over the last 2 years. Our 50 million to 60 million range for CapEx which occurred in 2014 and we're projecting again for 2015, in those CapEx numbers we have built in anticipated capacity to support these increasing programs.
And as they increase we will expect that we will obtain leverage from that and so the margins will also improve.
Edward Marshall
How much margin improvement do you think from the initial kind of ship sets to the end do think that you'll kind – it will start to hit that midstream 5 to 6 a month that…
Chris Stephens
As you know Ed, we don’t speak margins by anyone one of businesses and needless to say as we enter into any new development program, it's a key area focus for our enterprise, our Barnes enterprise system and our practitioners around that operating system. And so, we place a tremendous amount of effort in terms of streamlining that process and bringing those down, the learning curve as quickly as possible.
Edward Marshall
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Chris Stephens
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Pet Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Your line is open.
Chris Stephens
Hello, Pete.
Peter Skibitski
Sorry about that. I as on mute.
Thanks, guys. Couple follow-ups, I guess, first on Männer, it looks like it grew roughly 17% organically apples-to-apples for the full year.
I guess in spite of the FX headwinds, and Patrick I don't think if you even starting your global extension yet at Männer. So I want to ask you how does the rollout timeline wise of the global expansion take place and I mean is this going to grow another double-digit in 2015, is that seem likely now?
Patrick Dempsey
Well, as you highlighted it clearly 2014 was a fabulous year for Männer and I think it exceeded everybody's expectations. The team there have done a fabulous job, it was for us the primary area of focus in 2014 was all about capacity expansion within the German facility.
And that was what drove the top line revenue. The even greater backdrop to that I think are in terms of news is that the demand for the products continues at heightened levels.
So orders remain strong and so really we are acting fast to move to what I refer to as phase 2 of their integration which is to embark upon that global extension as you referenced. We are looking at plans right now within the industrial leadership team is working closely with Männer and with Synventive to how we leverage both businesses as we embark upon this global expansion.
We have just conducted a complete market survey to get back real-time voice of the customer, so that as we embark upon this expansion its in perfect alignment with what our customers telling us that they need.
Peter Skibitski
Okay. So we'll wait to hear more I guess as the year unfold, but that very interesting.
Last one for you Patrick, you said you're still very edge [ph] at M&A it sounds like how are evaluations out there looking to you, markets is been up quite a bit, I am just wondering how that aspect of that strategy?
Patrick Dempsey
Well, for us we, as you know our strategic criteria continues to center around premium type of businesses. We are not necessarily looking at any turnaround type of businesses or anything that requires significant mixing up.
Representative of our criteria are manner and sedated we paid a 9 to 10 range EBIT up multiple on both of those businesses and we continue to look at various opportunities and for us we remain disciplined and share terms of our financial criteria or terms of what the valuations are as well as the performance of the businesses we are looking at.
Peter Skibitski
Understood. Thanks very much guys.
Patrick Dempsey
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Graham with Jefferies and Company. Your line is open.
Scott Graham
Good morning, again. I am back from an Internet connection.
Chris Stephens
I would say, we missed a lot this guy. We were surprised we didn’t at least one follow up.
Scott Graham
Well, that was such a great answer Chris. I did know what to do.
Obviously my question was beyond that you what you had already mentioned but maybe that is something I can talk to you and Bill about later. I'd that there might have been a little bit more but I can deftly see how it can balance things out some of those headwinds.
Chris Stephens
Sure.
Scott Graham
Next question I want to ask was, really of Patrick and I guess every other quarter I ask this question but for some this RSP situation is obvious a little frustrating I'm sure for you insert model for us it's a business that was supposed to be kind of like the outlook on your CRP business is now. I think you had a lot more higher expectations and you don't have to knowledge that over and over – overnight but I'm guessing that you did and I'm just wondering what is it that is keeping this business from growing.
We've not seen growth in this business in fact we have seen down quarter about since 2011.
Patrick Dempsey
Scott, I wouldn’t necessarily agree with your categorization of RSP. In that we remain extremely positive on these programs we did to them as long term investments if defiance the reference you've heard over the last couple of years are from our perspective.
Excitable in terms of the management fees the incremental management fees initially we had built into the programs over a number of years and that started occurring and it was a management fee for reduction on top when levels. Again to the out of sync without what is happening in the markets as I said earlier what we're seeing right now is transition between see them 56 MCF6 [ph] and where the see of six and earlier version of the them are declining and sharp rates to see them 56 does five dash seven which is the more modern model and predominant amounts of the installed fleet is continuing to grow.
We're in this transition where one is equally using the other and deafening out ultimately the top line. As this shift moves forward and remember these programs over the next 20 years, you look at our investor presentation you'll see the shop is a forecast that are in their and we see over the next five years continued growth whereby shop visits won't even peak until 2000 until 2022.
Scott Graham
The Outlook for these programs is very strong. And to understand that that's me like you're still confident inflection and defined as when the install the older stuff runs of less fast if you will.
Then the new stuff installed start to impact doesn't sound like that is a 2015 event. Could there be a 2015 or 2013 event?
Patrick Dempsey
I think is appropriate timing and if you look at the chart that I referenced in our investor presentation you'll see that related right there.
Scott Graham
Last question for me is industrial business of see you guys are having great success with the addition of the to harbor a businesses, did you talk about the monthly order trends for industrial as a quarter progressed and we're done with it the month and half of this year. Whatever color you can give us on how the orders are progressing on a year-over-year basis would be humble.
Patrick Dempsey
I think we can [indiscernible] Q4 with a strong momentum to me to the New Year. In terms of markets as I indicated we see continued strength and demand for medical device market, we see tool and die continuing strong the man across the board has met our expectations and supports our Outlook going into provided for 2015.
Operator
There are no for the questions at this time I turn the call back to Mr. Pitts for closing remarks.
William Pitts
Thank you, Laurel. We like to think everyone for joining us today we look for to speaking with you in April with our next quarterly earnings call.
This concludes our call for today thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call you may now disconnect.