Feb 5, 2013
Executives
Sharon Barbari - Executive Vice President, Finance and CFO Robert Blum - President and CEO Dr. Andrew Wolff - SVP, Clinical Research and Development and CMO Dr.
Fady Malik - SVP, Research and Early Development
Analysts
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray Ritu Baral - Canaccord Mike King - JMP Securities Jason Butler - JMP Securities George Zavoico - MLV Chad Messer - Needham
Operator
Good afternoon. And welcome ladies and gentlemen to the Cytokinetics Fourth Quarter 2012 Conference Call.
At this time, I would like to inform you that this call is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the call for questions-and-answers after the presentation.
I will now turn the call over to Sharon Barbari, Cytokinetics Executive Vice President of Finance and CFO. Please go ahead.
Sharon Barbari
Good afternoon. And thank you for joining the Cytokinetics’ senior management team on this conference call today.
Also present during this call are Robert Blum, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Andrew Wolff, Senior Vice President of Clinical Research and Development and Chief Medical Officer; and Dr.
Fady Malik, Senior Vice President of Research and Early Development. Following the forward-looking statement disclaimer, Robert will provide an overview of the past quarter, highlighting advancements in our clinical development program.
Andy will then detail recent progress in our clinical development of tirasemtiv for the potential treatment of ALS, and Fady will update you regarding recent progress in our clinical development of omecamtiv mecarbil for the potential treatment of heart failure. I will then provide a financial overview and comments with respect to our cash position, details on our investments in research and development activities and our 2013 financial guidance.
Robert will then conclude the call with additional comments regarding recent activities and expected next step and projected milestones for 2013 for our development programs. We’ll then open the call for questions-and-answers.
The following discussion, including our responses to questions, contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995, including but not limited to statements relating to our financial guidance, to the initiation, enrollment, design, conduct, and results of clinical trials, and to other research and development activity. Our actual results might differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.
Additional information concerning factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements is contained in our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and our current reports on Form 8-K. Copies of these documents may be obtained from the SEC or by visiting the Investor Relations section of our website.
These forward-looking statements speak only as of today. You should not rely on them as representing our views in the future.
We undertake no obligation to update these statements after this call. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Robert.
Robert Blum
Thank you, Sharon. 2012 was an important year for Cytokinetics and the progress we made in both of our clinical development programs during the fourth quarter is very exciting.
We focus on activities to key deliverables in 2012 from our cardiac and skeletal muscle programs that would lay the foundation for what we believe may prove to be a pivotal year for Cytokinetics in 2013. The initiation of our Phase IIb clinical trial evaluating tirasemtiv in ALS now known as BENEFIT-ALS was one of those key deliverables.
BENEFIT-ALS, which stands for Blinded Evaluation of Neuromuscular Effects and Functional Improvement with tirasemtiv in ALS is enrolling patients in North America and we expect very soon will be open to enrollment in Europe as well. In January, we hosted the European investigators meeting for BENEFIT-ALS, and Andy will elaborate on that meeting and will also provide other details regarding BENEFIT-ALS in a moment.
Until then, I will just say that the enthusiasm of the clinical investigators and other study personnel at both North American and European meetings is encouraging. We are optimistic about our enrollment timelines for BENEFIT-ALS, which is expected to enroll 400 patients with ALS from over 70 sites throughout the U.S., Canada and Europe.
In November, we announced positive data from our Phase IIa, Evidence of Effect clinical trial known as CY 4023. That trial evaluated tirasemtiv in patients with generalized myasthenia gravis.
Andy will elaborate more on this trial in a moment. In brief, however, we are encouraged by these data because they demonstrate pharmacodynamic activity of the novel mechanism of tirasemtiv in another distinct population of patients in their muscular disease.
In addition to our recent progress with tirasemtiv in the last quarter, the clinical trials program for omecamtiv mecarbil also advanced to a key milestone. In November, we announced the opening of the third and final cohort of the ongoing Phase IIb clinical trial known as ATOMIC-AHF, which stands for acute treatment of omecamtiv mecarbil to increase contractility in Acute Heart Failure.
Enrollment momentum underscores the continued interest in omecamtiv mecarbil in the approximately 140 international centers participating in this trial. Alongside that progress, Cytokinetics and Amgen have been busily collaborating in preparations to launch another Phase IIb clinical trial, designed to evaluate modified-release oral formulations of omecamtiv mecarbil.
This next trial is named COSMIC-HF which stands for chronic oral study of myosin activation to increase contractility in heart failure and enrolling patients in heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction is the goal. This Phase IIb trial is expected to inform the selection of one of these oral formulations for advancement into the Phase III clinical program.
We are pleased to share this progress with our shareholders and remain optimistic as we are nearing the completion of ATOMIC-HF and preparing for the starts of COSMIC-HF. Fady Malik will elaborate on the omecamtiv mecarbil clinical trials program later in this call.
And with that introduction, I will now turn the call over to Andy to elaborate on the progress that we recently achieved in our program for tirasemtiv. Later in the call, I will turn to provide additional perspectives relating to our future plans.
Andy Wolff
Thank you, Robert. As Robert mentioned, last month Cytokinetics hosted a meeting for a European BENEFIT-ALS investigators.
Robert has already mentioned the enthusiasm for the trial we experienced among the study personnel at that meeting. I continue to believe that the excitement we witnessed at both this recent meeting and the earlier North American investigator’s meeting last September will likely result in enrollment race that should enable us to maintain our target line and will hopefully allow us to close enrollment, analyze data and present results at BENEFIT-ALS at the ALS MND meeting in December 2013.
To remind you, BENEFIT-ALS is a Phase IIb multinational double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial designed to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and potential efficacy of our fast skeletal muscle troponin activator, tirasemtiv, in patients with ALS. The trial is designed to enroll approximately 400 patients, who will be randomized one to one to receive 12 weeks of double-blind treatment with tirasemtiv or placebo.
All enrolled patients will complete one week of treatment with open-label tirasemtiv at 125 milligrams twice daily prior to randomization in order to ensure that randomized patients will tolerate that dose of tirasemtiv and also to minimize the potential for unblinding treatment due to generally mild adverse events that tend to occur early during tirasemtiv treatment and that usually resolve by the second week of continued treatment. Clinical assessments will take place monthly during the course of treatment.
Patients will also participate in follow-up evaluations at both seven and 28 days after the final dose. The primary endpoint of BENEFIT-ALS is the change from baseline in the ALS Functional Rating Scale in its revised form, or the ALSFRS-R.
Secondary endpoints will include Maximum Voluntary Ventilation, or MVV, and other measures of skeletal muscle function. I’m also pleased to report that in the last quarter, we announced positive data from our Phase IIa evidence of effect clinical trial of tirasemtiv in patients with generalized myasthenia gravis or MG.
This study is known as CY 4023. This Phase IIa clinical trial was a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, three-period cross-over pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic study of tirasemtiv in patients with generalized MG.
Patients enrolled in CY 4023 received single oral doses of placebo, 250 milligrams and 500 milligrams of tirasemtiv in random order approximately one week apart. And six hours after dosing, decreases which reflect improvements in the quantitative MG score or QMG were statistically significantly related to the dose of tirasemtiv, declining by 0.49 QMG points per each 250 mg of starting drug, the key value of 0.02.
To remind you, the QMG is a validated index of disease scenario that is often employed as a primary endpoint in clinical trials of patients with MG. Also, at six hours after dosing in CY 4023 increases which reflected improvements in a percent predicted forced vital capacity versus statistically significantly related to the dose of tirasemtiv, increasing by 2.2 percentage points for 250 mg of same drug, repeat value of 0.04.
Both the 250 mg and 500 mg single oral doses of tirasemtiv studied in this Phase IIa clinical trial well tolerated by the 32 patients enrolled in CY 4023. There we no premature terminations and no serious adverse events were reported.
The most commonly adverse event in CY 4023 was dizziness, which increased in frequency with dose and was reported as mild although one case that was classified as moderate. As always, additional information of other completed or ongoing Phase II trial can be downloaded at www.clinicaltrials.gov.
With that update on a tirasemtiv clinical development activities in the third quarter, I’ll turn the call over to Fady for an update on our cardiac muscle contract facility program.
Dr. Fady Malik
Thank you, Andy. Much as Andy described the development progress in our skeletal muscle-activated program, I also have good news to share regarding the development of omecamtiv mecarbil.
Together with Amgen, we’ve made important progress this past quarter with a development of the intravenous form of omecamtiv mecarbil and Phase IIb as well as the old forms moving into Phase IIb. We are pleased with the progression of ATOMIC-AHF, which moved into the third and final cohort in the past quarter.
So remind you, ATOMIC-AHF is an ongoing international randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled Phase IIb clinical trial of an intravenous formulation of omecantiv mecarbil. Patients hospitalized for the acute compensated heart failure.
ATOMIC-AHF initiated enrollment of the final cohort in late November. With nearly a 140 sites enrolling patients, trial is progressing rapidly and isn’t ruled over 500 patients today.
Again, additional information on our face trials can be found at www.clinicaltrials.gov. In addition to the progress in Atomic HF, as Robert mentioned Cytokinetics and Amgen have been working together to initiate COSMIC-HF, a Phase IIb, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter, dose escalation study designed to evaluate several modified-release oral formulations of omecamtiv mecarbil in patients with heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction.
When this trial is open to enrollment and is posted on clinicaltrials.gov, we will elaborate on its design, but until then we can iterate that it is designed to inform the potential selection of one of these oral formulations for advancement in skeletal phase clinical trials. The trial will be conducted in two stages.
An initial stage which will compare the oral formulations and heart failure patients receiving daily doses of omecamtiv mecarbil for a shorter duration, and then a second stage in which an expanded cohort of heart failure patients will receive daily doses of one oral form of omecamtiv mecarbil for a longer duration. This international trial is expected to importantly inform our understanding of the longer-term safety and tolerability of omecamtiv mecarbil, administered orally to heart failure patients.
In addition, we’ll have the opportunity to evaluate the potential for sustained pharmacodynamic effects and their relationships with the pharmacokinetics of our drug candidate. With that update on our clinical development activities, I will turn the call over to Sharon.
Sharon Barbari
Thank you, Fady. Our press release contains detailed financial results for the fourth quarter 2012, so I will refer to you that public statement for the details on our P&L and balance sheet.
Over the past quarters, we’ve been focused on deploying the funds from our June 2012 financing to the manufacturing start-up and initiation activity associated with our BENEFIT-ALS trial. We ended the fourth quarter with approximately $74 million in cash and cash equivalents and investments, which represents over 16 months of going forward net cash burn based on our revised 2013 financial guidance.
Our fourth quarter 2012 R&D expenditures totaled $9.2 million. From a program perspective, for the fourth quarter approximately 73% of our R&D expenses were attributable to our skeletal muscle contractility research and development activities, 12% to our cardiac muscle contractility activities and 15% to our other research activities.
For the 12 months ended December 31, 2012, our R&D expenditures totaled $35 million. From a program perspective, for the 12 months approximately 70% of our R&D expenses were attributable to our skeletal muscle contractility activities, 13% to our cardiac muscle contractility activities, and 5% to our smooth muscle contractility program, and 12% to our other research activities.
As a reminder Cytokinetics was rewarded -- awarded $3.5 million in grants from the NIH or NINDS to fund research and development of Tirasemtiv in MG. Through December 31, 2012 Cytokinetics incurred $4.5 million in research and development expense associated with our MG program, and has received $3.2 million or 70% of the programs fundings from NINDS.
Today, we are announcing our financial guidance for 2013. We anticipate our 2013 revenue to be in the range of $1 million to $3 million.
Our cash R&D expenses are expected to be in the range of $40 million to $44 million, and our G&A expenses are expected to be in the range of $12 million to $13 million. This financial guidance is on a cash basis and does not include an estimated $4.8 million in non-cash related operating expenses, primarily related to stock compensation expense.
In addition, this guidance does not reflect potential revenue from any potential new collaborations. This past quarter and year we have delivered on key objectives in both of our first and class development programs.
In 2013, our financial resources are planned to largely be focused on the progression of our skeletal muscle contractility research and development program and the BENEFIT-ALS trial in particular. We believe that this program together with our cardiac muscle contractility program that is partnered with Amgen represents opportunities for the nearest term value generation for the company, as both are expected to generate results in 2013.
That concludes the financial portion of today’s call. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Robert.
Robert Blum
Thank you, Sharon. So we are pleased to report on Cytokinetics an important progress in 2012.
In the last year, Cytokinetics executed on those key deliverables that now position us to potentially achieve transformative outcomes in connection with our lead programs directed to activating each of cardiac skeletal muscle. One such example relates to a new addition to our clinical development pipeline.
During the last quarter, Cytokinetics filed an investigation on new drug or IND application for CK-2127107, which has recently cleared review by the U.S. Food and Drug administration or FDA.
CK-107, a selective, fast skeletal muscle troponin activator is a drug candidate that was discovered during Cytokinetics’ optimization of a different chemical series than that which produced tirasemtiv. Now stepping back a bit, over the last several years we’ve embarked on a bold mission to define an entirely novel pharmacology rooted to the mechanics of muscle contractility and function.
In total, Cytokinetics cardiac and skeletal muscle activators have now been the subject of 20 human clinical trials that have investigated safety and tolerability, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, drug-drug interactions in both single and multiple dose regimens. These trials have yielded evidence supporting our hypothesis that activating cardiac muscle myosin can improve systolic function, reflected by increases in ejection fraction and stroke volume in heart failure patience.
Similarly, we’ve observed that activating skeletal muscle troponin results in increased muscle force and power and endurance that may preserve, or prolong the independence and quality of life in patients with ALS. In 2013, we proudly assumed the leadership for what we hope can prove to be the next key advance in the care of ALS patients, especially in light of recent disappointments associated with other once promising development programs at other companies.
In everything we do, we hear the urgent call to action for better medicines for patients who suffer from this grievous illness. Last week, the FDA announced that it will hold a public hearing on February 25th to obtain input from stakeholders on matters relating to the needs and preferences of ALS patients and their caregivers.
We are encouraged that FDA has solicited input on a scientific evaluation, marketing authorization and post-marketing surveillance of potential products to diagnose or treat ALS. Cytokinetics will be attending that public hearing much in the same way as we last year responded to the European Medicines Agency invitation for public comment regarding potential revisions to their guidelines for the evaluation of new drugs for ALS.
We believe that to date, our proposals to develop your assumptive for the potential treatment of ALS, have been well received by both FDA and EMA and we look forward to participating in constructive dialogue with the agencies regarding the development of potential new therapies for ALS. To that point, I will remind you that in December, Cytokinetics hosted our second Investor R&D Day at which we provided an update on recent company activities and the future for our potential therapeutics in hear failure and ALS.
Following the company update we moderated a panel that delve into the integrated care of ALS patients. The panel was comprised of medical professionals who described what it means to live with and to provide care for patients leaving with this devastating disease.
The webcast of both the company presentations and the panel discussions maybe viewed on our website under Investor Relations. I encourage everyone on this call to view that broadcast with particular attention to the ALS panel discussion, because it provides an important context for what we were doing at Cytokinetics and also illustrates the challenges confronting patients and their caregivers all of whom we aim to serve.
Now, with 2012 behind us, we turn to our expected milestones for 2013. For tirasemtiv, by mid-year 2013 Cytokinetics anticipates completion of enrollment in BENEFIT-ALS.
By the end of the year Cytokinetics expects to report data from BENEFIT-ALS. Also in our skeletal muscle program in the first half of 2013 Cytokinetics anticipates initiating a Phase I clinical trial evaluating CK-107 in healthy volunteers.
Turning now to omecamtiv mecarbil. In the first quarter of 2013 Cytokinetics anticipates the opening to enrollment of COSMIC-HF.
In the first half of 2013 Cytokinetics anticipates the completion of enrollment in ATOMIC-AHF and in mid-year 2013 Cytokinetics expects results from ATOMIC-AHF to be reported. So thank you for joining us today for the formal portion of our call.
Operator, with that, I would now like to open the call up to questions please.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from Simos Simeonidis with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Blum
Hi, Simos.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Hi. Thanks.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.
First with omecamtiv mecarbil, I’m not sure if you going to be able talk about this, because I think you may want to wait till more details kind of become available. But in terms of COSMIC, can you talk about how many different formulations you are going to be testing and how they’re different from what you had tested so far?
And secondly, are you going to be able to tell us something about the length of treatment and whether this are going to be the same patient population you’re going to be testing in the chronic part of the treatment in the potential Phase III trial with this drug?
Robert Blum
So I’ll start and answer the first part of the question, I may turn to Fady to help me with the second part to the extend that we can provide some general guidance about what Phase III might look like. With respect to your question on the design, we have not spoken publicly about the number of oral formulations that are going to be studied in COSMIC, what I can say is that it’s several and that we will reasonably soon in this first quarter of 2013 be in a position to elaborate with much more specificity, meaning it’s going to be posted to clinicaltrials.gov and then we can elaborate on that design.
But we are going to be selecting several oral formulations from a larger number that we profiled as you may remember last year in healthy volunteers. So those subjects received oral formulations and from that we’ve selected a subset of those that we’re going to be studying together with Amgen in collaboration in COSMIC-HF.
The duration of treatment will also be specified once we’ve got that information publicly disclosed and posted to clinicaltrials.gov. So the next part of your question I think related to well these patients be of a profile similar to those that would be enrolled in Phase III and I’ll turn to Fady to help us with that.
Dr. Fady Malik
Hi, Simos. I think the patient population will be similar to what we enroll in Phase III.
In Phase III we might pick a somewhat higher risk patient population just in order to ensure we have, sufficient event rate, but in general they are pretty similar patient populations. And just to remind you, ATOMIC-AHF in the acutely ill population sort of bookends the spectrum of patients that we would intend to enroll in Phase III, so from the most acutely ill to these more stable heart failure patients.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
And I’m assuming in the Phase III and again I’m speculating, I assume, all the patients in Phase III will be hospitalize in the beginning of the trial and then when they go home they’ll take oral formulation, correct?
Dr. Fady Malik
Not absolutely, I think…
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Okay.
Dr. Fady Malik
… we -- well we hadn’t finalize details of the Phase III program, but we anticipate certainly that there will patients that will be enrolled on the drug as outpatients perhaps they would have been hospitalized in the last couple months so they have other features that would make them at higher risk but they might not necessarily be in the hospital.
Robert Blum
Yeah. To that point, Simos, I think the way we’ve been thinking about this and as Fady points out, a lot still has to be defined and together with Amgen.
But our expectation is that the Phase III program we’ll be enrolling patients who are at high risk of death or readmission, meaning they are in hospital or have recently been discharged such that they would be expected to be at higher risk for those key morbidity, mortality events. So that’s still to be pin down, but that’s the way we and Amgen have been thinking about it to this point.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Okay. Then about the open-label Phase I single dose trial with omecamtiv mecarbil you disclosed?
Can you tell us a little bit about the reasoning behind this trial what you are hoping to see and when you are going to have this data?
Dr. Fady Malik
Yeah. The open-label Phase I was really just to compare the pharmacokinetic profile of the panel of oral formulations that were developed in order to modify the absorption of omecamtiv mecarbil.
And so really is a fairly straightforward oral pharmacokinetic crossover trial that was completed last year. And that gave us a way to prioritize which of the several oral formulation we would further study in heart failure patients.
Robert Blum
So, Simos, I just want clarify, are you referring to that Phase I study or the one that’s contained within our press release today in renal patients?
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
I was referring to the trial in patients in renal insufficiency and the patients in undergoing hemodialysis actually?
Dr. Fady Malik
Okay. I’m sorry.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Okay.
Dr. Fady Malik
So the that particular trial is meant to inform us is to whether renal dysfunction changes the pharmacokinetics of the drug, as you know in the heart failure patients have variable renal function and so it’s important to understand the impact of renal function on omecamtiv mecarbil pharmacokinetics. We didn’t really given any specific guidance in terms of how that trial would report out, but it would certainly inform going forward the development program.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Okay. Then a couple of quick ones on tirasemtiv.
Can you clarify what happens after the first week of dosing in BENEFIT-ALS. I know the first week is open label and everyone -- all the patients will get tirasemtiv.
But what happens if somebody cannot really tolerate the drug, do they drop out. I know that really hasn’t happened in the trial so far.
But if somebody has a tolerability issue, would they dropout or -- can you walk us through the mechanistically what happens and how it does? And then secondly, when you’re into second week, how does the dose escalation happen?
Robert Blum
So dosing began, as you mentioned, at 125 milligrams twice daily, which is where we started dosing and one of the earlier Phase IIa studies, which has also where our patients continue if they randomize to receive active tirasemtiv rather than placebo. So there is a week of open label treatment with 125 mg twice daily.
Patients don’t tolerate that initial starting dose then they do drop out of the study and they are not eligible to be randomize. So that ensures, at least, it helps to ensure that patients who’re actually randomize on the double blind, do you tolerate at least the starting dose and we would expect that most will.
Together benefit as we mentioned during the call is that there is a relatively high incidence of mild adverse events commonly dizziness that tend to occur early right after the initiation of treatment but that we’ve shown tend to go away, even as treatment continues, usually by the second week of treatment. So patients who tolerate that the initial week will then be randomized.
If they go onto placebo, they go one to placebo for the remaining 12 weeks of the study. If they are randomized to receive tirasemtiv, they get into another week of treatment at that same dose of 125 milligrams twice a day.
And potentially, part of the benefit of the design is that if dizziness goes away then in the second week or so on double blind treatment, it’s not going to be clear to the investigator and the patient whether the reason is dizziness or whatever result, it’s because they were withdrawn from active open label treatment onto placebo. So this is mild side effect generally do result with continued treatment.
So it helps preserve the blind. After the first week of the blind treatment, patients randomize to receive active tirasemtiv as expected to 125 milligrams in the morning and 250 in the evening.
And then at the beginning of the third week, they go up to 250 milligrams in the morning and 250 milligrams in the evening. There is a great deal of flexibility about that titration, that’s the way, titration is intended to go forward in patients who have no problems tolerating the drug.
But titration to be done more slowly, there can be dosing interruptions, there can be down titration and then attempts to go back up again. The big difference between what happens during the open label phase and the double blind phase is during the open label phase is the patient really cannot tolerate the treatment.
They should be discontinued from the study. Once they randomize, however, if the patient is having adverse events, we need to keep them on, the highest does that they can truly tolerate.
And if that’s not 250 milligram twice a day then whatever dose lower than that they can’t tolerate, we need to keep them on because the study is designed other than tension to treat trial. So we want to keep each patient on some study drug rather than lose them altogether.
Does that answer the question, Simos?
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Absolutely. That’s very helpful.
Thank you. Robert, final question for you.
Can you comment on the status of the partnerships for to tirasemtiv, namely do you -- are you hoping or do you to intent to have a partnership before you read out BENEFIT-ALS or do you think you may want to wait for the data before you sign in a partner?
Robert Blum
So there is nothing about having the data from Benefit ALS. But we’ll suggest that that will be required or is our intention alongside of trying to get a partnership deal done.
What’s more important is can we get the deal done that we’re striving to do which relates to maintaining on active leadership role in the development and commercialization of tirasemtiv in north America as we’ve discussed publicly many times that’s every important to Cytokinetics. So getting a deal done is not predicated on having data from BENEFIT-ALS.
I should make that very clear. Getting a deal done is not predicated on having data from BENEFIT-ALS and it is still very much our priority to get a deal done and that’s where I’m spending quite substantial amounts of my time.
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Okay.
Robert Blum
Does that fit?
Simos Simeonidis - Cowen and Company
Yeah. That answers the question.
Thank you for taking the questions.
Robert Blum
Thanks so much.
Operator
Your next question will come from Charles Duncan with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead with your questions.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Hi, Charles.
Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my question.
It’s related to this upcoming February meeting. It just seems curious that that was announced recently after the failure of tax.
And I’m just kind of wondering what you think the agenda items are for that meeting?
Robert Blum
We were also surprised by that announcement. It was not something that had been telegraphed, at least not such that we understood that to be scheduled.
But now that we know about it, we are preparing for it. And I don’t know that we can point to any precedence other than to say that we expect it will be a very pepped agenda with lots of patience and their caregivers and also sponsors making short statements.
So I think other than that, we don’t really have much insight. We know what you know in terms of what’s been posted publicly.
Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray
Okay. And then maybe on this subject of endpoints in ALS, we’ve done a lot of diligence on this but it seems like it maybe a little bit over moving target.
Are there any takeaways that you can -- that you make from the recent failure of dexpramipexole and in terms of the design of your not only BENEFIT-ALS, I don’t expect you to change that but perhaps the way that you look at that trial and then the fast forward.
Robert Blum
So it’s a very good question and I’ll start and maybe Andy will also want to add. We don’t know anything more than what has been stated publicly about the performance of dexpramipexole in that power study other than it did not seem to meet any of the pre-specified endpoints.
We are expecting to hopefully within the next few months see results from that study and as Biogen Idec has implied, there are learnings from that study that can inform the future drug development activities in ALS. We have been not unlike Biogen Idec, I suspect we have been the beneficiary of many clinical trials that have preceded us, many of which have been conducted by the North Eastern ALS consortium in terms of understanding how best to design a large international clinical trial.
And we are informed by the data basis that have been generated in the course of those studies to understood what might be the event rate and how to design of the inclusion and exclusion criteria and also how to pick the best centers that might be in a best position not only to enroll the study like this rapidly but also where the site personnel or will trained to conduct the assessments that have the right kind of test, retest reliability for the purposes of a clinical trial. We, as you know have done a fairly extensive number of Phase I and Phase II a studies to understand the pharmacodynamics of tirasemtiv and in ALS patients.
So that we’ve selected some of those assessments, and we’ve rejected other based on where we think we might have the best opportunity to demonstrate a statistically relevant signal of activity. So we’ll learn alongside of you and others from the Biogen Idec experience, but we think we’ve got as good handle on what might be the tirasemtiv activity in ALS, as can be noble based on the studies we’ve done to this point.
Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray
Okay.
Robert Blum
I agree with all of that, which I said, I don’t think -- the unfortunate results in the entire study there are likely to be success or failures and entirely different mechanism. I don’t think it varies that more on the applicability of the ALSFRS-R plan either, which has become quite a standard endpoint for use in studies of patients with ALS.
So, I think we were disappointed by the news as well as the entire ALS community, but and it’s difficult to say too much more than I already have, absent a fuller presentation of the data there’s not been that much that’s been made public yet. But from what we do know, I don’t see any reason to be concerned about design or trial or a primary endpoint.
Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray
That’s helpful indeed. My last question is related to a comment you made on the European investigator meeting that you conducted recently.
You said there is a fair amount of enthusiasm. I’m wondering if you could provide us a little bit of -- a bit more color on that and if it differed from the U.S.
investigators, and if you believe there is any variability in the enrollment of ALS patients in Europe versus the states that could compound the results in anyway or changed your timelines of enrollment?
Robert Blum
I wouldn’t expect that there are significant variations in practice patterns between North America and Europe that would likely confound the result. That’s not something that’s been seen to be in international clinical trials of ALS, drugs that have not succeeded, have not exceeded fairly similarly across the geographies in which they’ve been studied.
What we do that from past studies is that centers of excellence or at least that’s what I would recall them here at United States are even more centralized in European countries than they are here. So the centers tend to have much larger catchment areas and enroll very quickly once initiated.
So the number of patients for center that we might anticipate from the European centers could be expected to be even greater than, a very encouraging enrollment we’ve seen early on now from our North American centers. And maybe just to give an anecdote in terms of the enthusiasm, despite the fact that we have only really just began enrolling in the last quarter of 2012, never the less one serious consumer and of our European sites personnel was there to study would we finished and rolling where they could even get started and we reassured them that 400 patients.
Even with the enthusiasm that we are seeing in the North American centers, they are going to have a chance to enroll. What I will say and this is a repetition of what we said during the call is I’m extremely confident in our timelines given what we’ve heard?
What we’ve seen so far to date and what we are hearing from is the size data assumes to be initiated.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
To add a little bit of color commentary to that, even as we don’t have all of the North American centers up and running yet and the Europeans will follow. But we are impressed for those centers that are enrolling patients, how many they were ready to screen.
At the time, they got their IRB approvals and their budgets, and everything was put in place. So, I think this study is well positioned given the absence of other competing clinical trials, but also given I think the enthusiasm for this mechanism and the motivation amongst patients and investigators.
I think the study is well positioned to enroll rapidly.
Charles Duncan - Piper Jaffray
Thanks, Robert, Andy for the added information.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Thanks, Charles.
Operator
Our next question comes from Ritu Baral with Canaccord. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Blum
Hi, Ritu.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Hi. Thanks guys for taking the question.
As you can win through the benefit of ALS design, there was no mention of why it was all? Is that correct?
You are not allowing background volumes in this trial. Asian that are taking volumes and when they come into the study, stay on their early result and patients that are not taking the result should not be given the early result for the duration of the study.
If it should so happen that a patient is relatively newly diagnosed and haven’t has the opportunity to get an early result, which is take it which became that first and fee stabilized. And the resolved before coming into the retail, but there is no requirement for patients to be on Riluzole or is there exclusion.
We would expect the majority of the patients will be taking it, but there will be some few that will not be on it.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
And two, as you know one of the things we did before committing to this trial was a drug-drug interaction study tirasemtiv with Riluzole, so we understand the T.K. affects of co-administering them.
So, I think we’ve got a good handle on that going to this trial.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Got it. Will you allow any dose adjustments of the Riluzole results?
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Well, there is a preferical dose adjustment, so as you may recall the drug-drug interaction that Robert mentioned results in a valid doubling of Riluzole levels when it’s administered in the presence of tirasemtiv. So when patients are randomized through tirasemtiv, there really is all dose is cut in half in a double wine fashion.
So they only receive -- the normal able dose is 50 milligrams twice daily. Patients on placebo continue to receive that and patients randomized to tirasemtiv receive 50 milligrams once daily in the manner that preserves the minded study.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Got it. That’s helpful.
And then that being said on the back end of the Riluzole results, what would you expect to see after three months of treatment in the ALSFRS-R? If I remember correctly, most patients see a decline of I think one point on the scale from once.
What sort of magnitude of affect in a perfect world in a perfect trial, which of course never happen. What magnitude effect might you see?
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Well, you are correct and on average in recent trials, the placebo group trends to decline actually so far unfortunately all patients and the decline is about 0.9 to be more pre size, point on the scale for months. So at the end of three months, we would expect untreated patients to decline by 2.7 points.
Since you asked the question the way you did, I’ll take advantage of it? You said it’s not a perfect world?
Perfect patients’ treatment with tirasemtiv will not declined at all and on average the ALSFRS-R will be higher than they were at baseline. So we are not assuming that, that’s not our conservative statement.
I wouldn’t put it completely outside in the order of possibility, but that would truly be the home run scenario. What we’ve powered the study to be able to detect is the difference of 1.1 each point from placebo.
So if the placebo folks have declined by an average of 2.7 points and patients treated with tirasemtiv had gone down by 1.5 to 2 point or less then we have 80% power or more to detect that difference with alpha 0.5 or P-line 0.5.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Got it. That’s very helpful.
And what percentage of patients would you expect to come from Europe, despite the fact that, I believe you said there is no real treatment difference or natural history progression difference between U.S. and European?
Dr. Fady Malik
I think it’s premature to speculate on that, what I can tell you is there is no quota, we’ve not set aside X numbers for different regions. We know the importance of enrolling this study as quickly as we can and we will enroll it from whichever our sites can enroll as quickly as they can.
Robert Blum
What we can say, Ritu is that, a significant majority of the centers that we are targeting are North American centers and they will likely be coming online sooner, but the European centers will certainly coming online and can contribute meaningfully. So if you think about the fact that we’ve said we’ve got over 70 centers that will be enrolling here and as they come online we’ll be posting them to clinicaltrials.gov, you can imagine doing the math that we are going to end up seeing probably at least half the patients if not more coming from North American centers.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Great. Last question for Sharon, your revenue guidance go down meaningfully in the coming year, what’s essentially driving that, given, I think that the Amgen relationship hasn’t changed?
Sharon Barbari
So every year we go through a process with our collaborators, so one Global Blood ended at the end of 2012. So that collaboration is not continuing into 2013.
And then every year we look at the research plan with Amgen and determine what resources we can provide that research program. So the revenue projections are including revenue from MyoKardia that relationship continues through August of this year, at least based on the current collaboration agreement and then our proposed revenue with Amgen.
Robert Blum
So just to be clear that’s…
Sharon Barbari
Also the grant piece, sorry, and MG grant as well that, the 4023 trial is now coming -- come to an end, we only have close out activities that remain in 2013.
Robert Blum
And as it relates to our Amgen derived sponsored research revenue that’s as Sharon pointed out somewhat fluid as we each year negotiate for us research program. Just to be clear that’s not related so much to joint development activities.
That’s all paid for by Amgen, so rather this is a research program.
Ritu Baral - Canaccord
Got it. Thanks so much for taking the question guys.
Robert Blum
Thank you, Ritu.
Sharon Barbari
Thanks.
Operator
Your next question will come from Mike King with JMP Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Blum
Hi, Mike.
Mike King - JMP Securities
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question.
Just wanted to ask about COSMIC. Just wondering why, two questions on COSMIC, number one, why you don’t think there will be a readout, at least you are not guiding to readout in 2013?
And just to be clear on COSMIC is there no clinical endpoint per se or just purely a PK/PD study to ascertain the correct dosage formulation?
Robert Blum
So it’s principally a study and this will become more clear once we can elaborate on its design. It’s principally a study to inform the selection of an oral form and whether that can occur in 2013 is going to certainly be a function of the enrollment rate and hence we are not giving any guidance to when we might see data from either the first stage or the second stage until such time as we see enrollment and we discussed that with Amgen.
So that’s the answer to you question. It’s not for, knowing that that would be relevant but rather instead because until the study is initiated is premature to speculate on that much like it was for ATOMIC at that time.
But there will be opportunities to conduct assessments beyond safety and tolerability in PK, and again we’ll elaborate more on that, but it won’t be a study designed for a principal efficacy analysis as you might be thinking with clinical outcomes in large part. In order to do that in the population of stable heart failure patients you are talking about but ultimately might be thousands of patients and hence we would reserve that for Phase III program before that in Phase IIb.
We just want to make sure that we’ve got both as an intravenous form and as an oral form product that is well-tolerated and that can be pharmacodynamically and pharmacokinetically predictable in a population of heart failure patients.
Mike King - JMP Securities
Okay. I understand.
That’s helpful. I just maybe a quick follow-up on that.
Can you say, I know you are not allowed to give any information about number of doses and such. But I’m just wondering is there anything you can say about the PK/PD that you would prefer, or you just said these were predictable, Robert.
I’m just wondering is there sort of dosing or blood level profile that you guys are titrating to or some other type of…
Robert Blum
Yeah. We’ll be titrating up with the goal of wanting to measure pharmacokinetic at exposure levels that would be consistent with what we’ve seen with this compound before and making certain that that’s not anymore variable or unpredictable in the heart failure population, a population with stable heart failure.
And wanting to make sure that we see trends not necessarily P-values but trends that support pharmacodynamically the activities that will be wanting to see in Phase III and hopefully those translating into clinical benefit.
Mike King - JMP Securities
Right. But I’m saying is, do you try to look at minimal variability or staying above the certain [semen] or anything else that you can say, you rather keep that under wraps for now?
Dr. Fady Malik
Yeah. Mike, I think the, this is Fady.
I think the key question as we continue to develop this drug is to be able to dose the drug in a broad patient population in a range of concentrations that we established are pharmacodynamically active and don’t result in outliers that have excessive pharmacokinetic concentration, drug concentration.
Mike King - JMP Securities
Okay.
Dr. Fady Malik
So in a lot ways the study designed to give us confidence that we can that the doses that we select will result in that range of exposures and are safe and well-tolerated.
Mike King - JMP Securities
Okay. I think get it.
Thanks. I’ll get back in queue.
Robert Blum
Okay. Thanks Mike.
Operator
Your next question will come from Jason Butler with JMP Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Blum
Hi, Jason.
Jason Butler - JMP Securities
Hey. Hi, Robert.
Just a couple of quick follow ups to my questions. The first one on the BENEFIT-ALS trial.
You talked about expecting or hoping to get data in at the ALS/MND meeting in December. Would you expect to press release the data much before that, or topline data much before that conference, or is the first disclosure, we should expect actually by around the date of that conference?
Robert Blum
It’s a little early little right now to speculate but I will try to answer your question as best I can. It has been our precedent to topline results by press release before they would be presented in a Medical Congress.
So that’s certainly what we would want to do in this case if we can keeping in mind that the last patient last visit would be 12 weeks into the last patients having been enrolled and a last assessment, 28 days after that. It could very well be that we’re not in a position to lock the data base until fourth quarter.
And then once data is analyzed, we may not have a whole lot of time between then and that meeting which this year is occurring in early December but we will try.
Jason Butler - JMP Securities
Okay. Great.
And then just a housekeeping question, can you -- for Sharon, could you talk about the use of your ATM facility in 4Q and so far in the first quarter of 2013?
Sharon Barbari
I can talk. We have changed our balance with respect to the use of the ATM we have not touched that in the fourth quarter or in the first quarter.
Jason Butler - JMP Securities
Okay. Great.
Thanks for taking my questions.
Robert Blum
Thank you, Jason.
Operator
Your next question will come from George Zavoico with MLV. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Blum
Hey, George.
George Zavoico - MLV
Thank you. Hi, everyone.
Robert, Sharon, Fady, Andy, thanks for taking my questions. Couple of quick ones, you mentioned 400 patients in the ALS trial, one week run in potential dropout.
The question relates to how many you might need to enroll to get to that 400. The first week, it wasn’t bad that of a dizziness.
I really don’t expect too much of -- I wouldn’t expect too much of a drop out rate?
Dr. Fady Malik
We are not expecting a high dropout rate for that open-label space. So I would imagine that you need to enroll too many more than the 400 in order to get to a complete 400.
George Zavoico - MLV
Yeah. That’s what I figured too, that’s good good.
And now, the ALS community has a rather powerful social media network. And not to speak, which added to the physician excitement with patients already getting ready to enroll.
Typically, how often does an ALS patient see their physician and do you see social media with an ALS patient. Having called physicians earlier than they might have ordinarily have gone to see them or physicians actually calling the patients to come in and say look we’ve got the trial starting, we get in all you guys or both.
Robert Blum
I’ll try to take a stab at that. Firstly, the typical ALS patient is atypical, meaning even that patient is not going to see his or her caregiver with the same regularities throughout the course of their disease.
In the early times following diagnosis, those patients tend to be seen more often and later in the disease less often, depending on their location if its in close proximity to their center of excellence or their treatment center, they may see them more often, others less often although there are some who persevere and drive long distances every four to six weeks. So we’ve seen that that’s not so consistently predictable but in the course of a clinical trial, ALS patients have demonstrated as we have learned to do some pretty remarkable things.
Some of them will travel very long distances in order to participate in a clinical trial such as ours. So we’re anticipating that that will be potentially the case here, across many centers and regarding your question around social media and the blogosphere, you are absolutely right, ALS patients are well known to be very active, communicating with one another and in chat rooms, we are seeing an increased buzz relating to this clinical trial.
We monitor that and we see that already patients are speaking about their interest in this trial or in some cases their experience in this trial already. So there have been recent reports in the media about ALS patients who have driven very rapid enrolment in certain clinical trials as a function of things that are shared in the blogosphere and that’s something that we are aware of whether that will happen in this clinical trial, it’s to be determined.
George Zavoico - MLV
I guess, it’s a good sign. Past experience does some times predict future results.
So hopefully that will help a lot in getting your trial enrolled rapidly. Thanks.
One question about omecamtiv then ultimately the strategy is to go from obviously IV in the hospital to oral at home but there is also a portion or it could also be as obviously without initial IV in the acute phase but starting with relatively stable congestive heart failure patients. Is that transition from IV to oral and then oral alone from a clinical trial planning perspective.
Is that going to be two separate trials or how do you see that going forward to be able to marry the two formulations?
Robert Blum
So it’s not yet defined and clear, it’s something that we will be seeking inputs on this year and I’d say we together with Amgen, in order to best understand whether this should be one large Phase III studies or multiple Phase III studies. And I think you’re asking right questions, I want to get our arms around that too.
George Zavoico - MLV
Okay. That’s great.
Okay. That’s it.
Thank you very much.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Thanks, George.
Operator
Your final question will come from Chad Messer with Needham. Please go ahead with your question.
Dr. Andrew Wolff
Hi, Chad.
Chad Messer - Needham
Hey, hi thanks for taking my question, you’ve covered a lot of ground today but I didn’t want to ask one on your latest clinical stage asset, 107. You guys went into three different indications with tirasemtiv and I’m just wondering if there is anything, you can share about your thoughts, about where you might start exploring this compound once you get out of, I know the first trial was in healthy volunteers but once you’re through that phase.
Robert Blum
Yeah. So firstly, I’ll say thanks for recognizing that achievement and Fady he lives in organization where CK 107 was brought forward from research, different chemical series into non-clinical development and Andy and their teams collaborated on following that IND at the end of last year.
And I’m really pleased that we now have a green light to proceed into Phase I. The strategy with CK 107 is one that will be informed both by what we learned about 107 itself in Phase I and also what we learn about tirasemtiv in Phase IIb.
So we can imagine going in a couple of different directions with CK 107 based on what we’ll know later this year. I’ll ask Fady to comment on what we already know about the CK 107, some of these data you might remember, we presented at our R&D Day in December and how it is distinguished from tirasemtiv.
Dr. Fady Malik
Hey, Chad. So CK 107 was really designed to address the ability to use it in a broader patient population than we might envision using tirasemtiv.
And so along those lines at our R&D day we showed its efficacy and improving running performance in a hearts failure part -- heart failure model. That was produced by myocardial infarction in rabbits.
And so it bears all of the pharmacologic properties we’ve characterized with tirasemtiv, but its other aspects of its profile potentially make it amenable to broader patient populations. There is no drug-drug interactions with this particular molecule, at least as far as we’ve characterized in VITRO.
It gets into the brain to a much lesser extent and in your other data as well suggests that we wouldn’t see some of the light-headedness that we see tirasemtiv so far. So those things are obviously that’s what Phase I and beyond are meant to confirm, but that’s what we are thinking of taking this different molecule.
Robert Blum
I think from the strategy standpoint the company has very committed to pursuing this mechanism of action. Initially, in ALS and some of these orphan rare diseases, so if tirasemtiv looks to be effective and well tolerated in that population, we will pursue that strategy with tirasemtiv in CK-107 might be therefore more appropriately developed in other indications.
However, if you see something with tirasemtiv that suggest that another light-headedness so our some other aspect of its profile should be improved upon, and hence CK-107 may be able to as engineered be a better horse to ride if that setting then we will do that and we will know that through the course of this year.
Chad Messer - Needham
All right. Great.
Thanks. So it’s potentially a backup, but also a way into other indications.
Robert Blum
That’s right. We are very enthusiastic about some of the data we generated in the last year that I say we, I mean under Fady’s leadership, he and is team.
But especially as pertains to heart failure and the ability as we demonstrated pre clinically to see increased endurance times there and other ways that we might address fatigability and a loss of muscle force and power and even loss of mass perhaps. In some other indications, it suggest that this mechanism of action can be exploited more broadly and we will do that in time either with tirasemtiv, or CK-107 or perhaps another compound but we will know lot more later this year.
Chad Messer - Needham
All right. Great.
Thanks for that update.
Robert Blum
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator
At this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Robert Blum, President and CEO for any closing comments.
Robert Blum
So thank you, Operator, and thank you to all of the participants on our teleconference today. Thank you for your continued interest in Cytokinetics.
We will look forward to updating you on our continued progress in this very promising year 2013. With that Operator, we can now conclude the call.
Thanks so much.
Operator
Ladies and Gentlemen, that’s concludes today Cytokinetics conference call. We thank you for your participation.
You may now disconnect.