May 1, 2013
Executives
Doran Schwartz – VP and CFO Dave Goodin – President and CEO Jeff Thiede – President and CEO, MDU Construction Services Group Frank Morehouse – President and CEO, Montana-Dakota Utilities Co., Great Plains Natural Gas Co., Cascade Natural Gas Corporation, and Intermountain Gas Company Kent Wells – Vice Chairman; President and CEO, Fidelity Exploration & Production Company Steve Bietz – President and CEO, WBI Holdings, Inc. Dave Barney – President and CEO, Knife River Corporation
Analysts
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets Michael Bates – DA Davidson Holly Stewart – Howard Weil Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital Timm Schneider – ISI Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Operator
Good morning. My name is Sarah and I’ll be your conference facilitator.
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the MDU Resources Group First Quarter 2013 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. (Operator Instructions).
This call will be available for replay beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern Time today through 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 15th. The conference ID number for the replay is 30760556.
Again, the conference ID number for the replay is 30760556. The number to dial for the replay for is 1-855-859-2056 or 404-537-3406.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Doran Schwartz, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MDU Resources Group. Thank you.
Mr. Schwartz, you may begin your conference.
Doran Schwartz
Thank you, Sarah. And welcome to our earnings release conference call.
Before I turn the presentation over to Dave Goodin, our President and Chief Executive Officer, I’d like to mention that this conference call is being broadcast live to the public over the Internet and slides will accompany our remarks. If you would like to view the slides, go to our website at www.mdu.com and follow the link to our conference call.
Our earnings release is also available on our website. During the course of this presentation, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Although the company believes that its expectations and beliefs are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ materially. For a discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ, refer to Item 1A, Risk Factors in our most recent Form 10-K and the Risk Factor section in our most recent Form 8-K.
Our format today will include formal remarks by Dave Goodin, President and CEO of MDU Resources, followed by a Q&A session. Other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions during the Q&A session of the conference call today are Dave Barney, President and CEO of Knife River Corporation, Steve Bietz, President and CEO of WBI Energy, Nicole Kivisto, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer for MDU Resources.
Frank Morehouse, President and CEO of Montana Dakota, Great Plains Natural Gas, Cascade Natural Gas and Intermountain Gas, Bill Schneider, Executive Vice President of Bakken Development at MDU Resources, Jeff Thiede, President and CEO of MDU Construction Services Group and Kent Wells, President and CEO of Fidelity Exploration and Production. And with that, I’ll turn the presentation over to Dave for his formal remarks.
Dave?
Dave Goodin
Thank you, Doran, and good morning. Thank you for your interest in MDU Resources and for taking the time to join jus today to discuss our first quarter results.
We’re off to a great start to this year. We had our best quarter since 2000 – our best first quarter since 2008.
Consolidated earnings for the quarter were 56.3 million or $0.30 per share. This compares to 35.6 million $0.19 per share in the first quarter of 2012.
I will jump right into our individual operations beginning with our E&P business. Our focus with this group has been to significantly grow oil production and work towards balancing our production mix.
Kent’s team has done an excellent job of achieving that especially these last couple of quarters. This quarter we increased oil production 46% compared to a year ago and for the second consecutive quarter produced over 1 million barrels of oil.
Equally significant is the fact that oil made up 46% of total production for the quarter with dry gas accounting for 46% and NGL the remaining 8%. In 2012 oil accounted for just 29% of total first quarter production.
The increase share is partially driven by higher oil production, but reduced dry gas production also played a significant role in balancing our portfolio. In the last couple of years we have been the decision to shut-in wells and curtail development of dry gas considering the low prices that we have seen.
However, at today’s natural gas prices with improved economics we anticipate bringing some of our shut-in wells back online here in the near future. We now have five rigs operating on our acreage with three focus on our primary acreage here in the Bakken where first quarter production increased 63% compared to just a year ago.
In Mountrail County, we continue to see strong results and improved efficiencies with two active rigs. We have begun pad drilling with our first pad location drilling three long lateral wells.
Our focus is on fully developing proven oil reserves in the Middle Bakken but it’s becoming clear through results of other producers in the area, that the three reports has significant potential for us as well. We do have one rig running in Stark County and we started to hit our stride there as well.
Our well costs are down, and that’s good news. These results continue to improve which is expanding our sweet spot as well.
In Richland County, we are working to resolve some drilling and completion issues that will enable us to successfully drill long lateral wells. This quarter, we plan to complete one or two wells that were previously drilled and then based on those results, potentially drill two additional wells in the second half of the year in 2013.
As you have heard us say before, the Paradox Basin is a potential game changer for us. We’ve had some great success on certain wells such as the 12-1 and we are working to have repeatability in well results.
We recently brought online the Cane Creek 18-1 well on production and it has been producing 1000 barrels per day with a flowing to pressure of approximately 2000 psi. We also recently completed some additional 3D seismic in the area, about twice the size of our first seismic and we are setting that data as well.
This additional seismic will nearly triple our playing field, so we’re pretty than excited about that as well. We have plans to begin selective testing later in the year on the number of additional zones within the formation that we believe to be prospective.
So stay tuned for more on this as the results become available to share with everyone. We see enormous potential for the Paradox Basin and we look forward to continuing development in the play.
However, we’re not going to rush things here. The Paradox is complex and we’re going to ensure that we know exactly what we’re doing before going into full development mode.
We’re certainly pleased with the start that we’ve had four E&P group having its strongest first quarter since 2010. We plan to invest approximately 400 million in 2013 in this business and we are projecting a 25% to 30% increase in oil production.
Our production and financial results are validating the strategy we have place and we look forward to continuation of that success. Turning to our utility business, it just had an outstanding quarter.
Its best ever in fact, earning a record 42.3 million compared to 33 million in 2012. This increase reflects increased natural gas retail sales volumes resulting from colder weather than last year as well as higher electric retail sales as well.
Also included in the earnings were $2.9 million gain on the sale of Montana Dakota’s non-regulated appliance service and repair business. Temperatures were 28% colder in Montana Dakota service territory and 22% colder and Intermountain natural gas territory for the quarter when we look compared to last year.
This resulted in a 16% increase in natural gas sales. We also achieved record electric sales volumes, thanks in large part to continued economic growth in the Bakken area where we’re seeing sustained customer growth.
Our outlook for the utility business includes plans for investing nearly 1 billion over the next five years. Included in the forecast is 86 million for the 88-megawatt simple cycle natural gas turbine to be located adjacent at our Heskett Generating Station here in Mandan, North Dakota and a 100 million for our share of the cost of environmental upgrades at our Big Stone Station.
Both projects have received advanced determination of prudence and will commence this year. The Bakken continues to exhibit incredible growth for our electric and gas utility group.
We have approximately 75 million in planned spending in that area to address the needs of a growing customer base. We do have natural gas rate cases pending in both Montana and South Dakota totaling about 5 million of annual relief.
In Montana the company is requesting 3.5 million annually or approximately 5.9% above our current rates. The commission there recently granted an interim increase of approximately $850,000 annually effective back on April 15th.
In South Dakota, the company has applied for an increase of 1.5 million annually or approximately 3.3% above current rates. Our utility really provides a strong foundation for both earnings and cash flows.
With our capital program we anticipate growing our rate base by over 400 million for about a 6% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years. We are pleased that we expect to reach the 1 million customer mark in really the not too distant future.
Our utility has a very bright future and is an integral part of our corporation. Now turning to our pipeline and energy services group, we had earnings of 2.3 million compared to 2.8 million a year ago.
Earnings reflect lower natural gas gathering volumes from existing operations. This decrease was partially offset by higher oil and natural gas gathering and processing volumes from the Pronghorn assets that we acquired last May.
Transportation volumes jumped 15% during the quarter when we compared to the same period just a year ago. This was principally related to volumes associated with Bakken natural gas processing facilities.
We do have an aggressive goal to double our invested capital in this group over the next five years. A substantial capital plan is in place to make this goal a reality as we’re projecting over 400 million in capital investments over that time.
A major project included in the forecast is the first of its kind in the country in over three decades. On March 26, we did break ground on our Dakota Prairie Refinery project which is a joint project with Calumet Specialty Products Partners.
It is the first Greenfield refinery to break ground on U.S. soil since 1976.
Construction will take approximately 20 months to complete, so it should be operational in late 2014. When complete, the plant will process 20,000 barrels of Bakken crude per day generating approximately 7,000 barrels of diesel per day as well.
This project really highlights the advantages of our diversified business model as it has the potential to positively impact each of our business units. Bakken crude is expected to be sourced in part, at least by our E&P company, the utility has been authorized to provide electricity, our pipeline will provide natural gas to the plant, our construction materials company is already busy performing site work as we speak, and our construction service group will likely be providing electrical and mechanical services as well.
In addition, this project actually also provides an internal hedge against the Bakken oil price differential that we’ve seen both widen and narrow over the last several months. Another major investment for this group was made in May of 2012 with the acquisition of a 50% interest in the Pronghorn natural gas and oil midstream asset near Belfield, North Dakota.
The total investment in 2012 was approximately 100 million and we will receive the full benefit of those assets this year. In addition to growing our midstream presence, we are also focused on the continuing growth of our existing pipeline system that really overlays the Bakken.
We recently reached an agreement to construction of a pipeline in 2014 to connect the planned Garden Creek to gas processing plant in Northwestern North Dakota to deliver gas to the Northern border pipeline. In addition, there is also potential for a substantial pipeline project for a proposed fertilizer plant near Spiritwood North Dakota just east of here about 100 miles.
We continue to be optimistic about the future of our pipeline business given its proximity to the abundant growth taking place in the Rocky Mountain region energy plays. Now let’s move on to our construction group.
Our construction businesses had another solid quarter with the services group earning 11.7 million and a seasonal loss of 20.6 million at our materials business. On a combined basis, results approved by 4.6 million compared to the same period last year.
Backlogs continue to increase keeping with the gentle sentiment that construction markets really are on the rebound. Combined backlog for the group is now over $1 billion, in fact, 1.54 million; it’s really a substantial increase from just a year ago.
Large projects secured that contribute to this increase include a $72 million 16-month inside job that was secured by our Pacific Northwest Group for a major technology company as well as a $33 million casino project on Las Vegas’ strip. Our companies are seeing bidding opportunities improvement in a number of our markets and we’re very excited about this upcoming construction season.
The successful first quarter at our services group was driven by strong results at our specialty equipment and supply business. National construction indicators have largely continued to improve during the first part of 2013.
We’re seeing housing starts in March that were at levels 47% higher than the same time last year and the American Institute of Architecture reported in March that it was the eighth consecutive month of improved business conditions at architecture firms. On a combined basis, the construction group has now achieved year-over-year earnings improvement for six consecutive quarters.
I think it is safe to say at this point, we see a recovery certainly underway and we’re looking forward to continued improvements as well as successes. Returning to a consolidated discussion, our first quarter results and substantially higher construction backlogs along with an increase in our natural gas price production has resulted in our decision to increase and narrow our 2013 EPS guidance range to $1.30 to $1.40.
On our year end call, I stated I thought we were are completing 2012 as a stronger company than when the year began and that we were positioned well for growth headed into 2013. I think our results have validated those thoughts for this first quarter.
At our E&P business we produced over 1 million barrels of oil and 46% oil growth over the same period a year ago. Our pipeline business has broke ground on the first Greenfield refinery in the country in 37 years.
The utility group enjoyed its best quarter ever, thanks in part to colder weather, as well as continued customer growth. And our construction group continued to build momentum while substantially beefing up its backlog in both of those lines of business.
We are excited about the great opportunities ahead of us and we continue to see this growth continue. Our capital budget for the year is approximately 860 million and our five year forecast includes approximately 3.9 billion in planned investment.
We are financially strong with adequate liquidity and we are committed to a competitive dividend for our shareholders as well. 2013 is off to a fast start and we look ahead to the challenge of building off this momentum for the remainder of the year.
There is still a lot of the year remaining. Thank you for your time today and we will be happy to open the lines to questions at this time.
Operator?
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Matt Tucker with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Congrats on a great quarter.
Dave Goodin
Thank you, Matt. Good morning.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
The first question just regarding the guidance, if you look at the implied guidance for the third and fourth quarters, it actually looks like it is a little lower than it was previously. So we need to talk a little bit about maybe what specifically would cause you to lower the guidance for the second half or if you are just kind of baking a little more cushion there?
Doran Schwartz
Yeah, Matt, this is Doran. Really, I think, it reflects the strong first quarter that we had.
Obviously, to Dave’s point we have got a lot of year in front of us, we did increase the annual guidance. But in terms of as we move throughout the course of the year, we will be updating those quarterly ranges as well.
So I think it just really reflects the very strong first quarter we got off to in terms of annual guidance and then a lot of the year left in front of us. So we will update those as we go.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Great. Thanks.
And then on the construction segment, you mentioned a couple of larger projects. I was curious, are there – do you see a lot more of those kind of larger projects out there, or should we consider kind of the really strong bookings you had as being a little bit lumpy for the first quarter?
Doran Schwartz
Yeah. Matt, thanks.
I’m going to actually ask both Jeff Thiede and Dave Barney to talk about each of their business lines respectively. Because again, they combined backlog between those two business is like a $1.54 million right now and so I will turn to Jeff here because I did note a couple of project specific in his area and he can expand upon that.
Jeff Thiede
Thanks Dave. Good question.
And we’re seeing some pickup in the manufacturing sector across the country, most notably in the semiconductor industry in the Pacific Northwest. In addition to some industrial projects in Ohio.
So we think we are well-positioned. We think we are getting these projects on our radar screen and identifying our value on our front on as well as before the come to bid and of course after the selection process so we can execute those projects successfully.
Dave Goodin
Good morning. We are seeing like I talked about before, we do jobs of between about 35 million and as low as about 2 million.
And we have jobs this year up to 27 million and our basic job there are 10 million to 15 million, and we are seeing quite a few of those jobs and we are picking up quite a few of those jobs, and we see quite a few of those out on our bid schedule. If it will be successful or not I am not sure, but they are out there.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thanks guys. I’ll jump back in the queue for now.
Dave Goodin
Okay. Hey thanks Matt.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bates with DA Davidson.
Michael Bates – DA Davidson
Hey, good morning. How much of the construction backlog is in the Central and Mountain regions where you noted regions have been under more pressure?
Dave Goodin
Thanks Michael for the question. Are you related to a construction materials or construction services?
Michael Bates – DA Davidson
Color would be helpful on both, but I was specifically referring to materials.
Dave Goodin
Okay. Or the Central and Mountain region, Dave, I don’t know if we break that specific by region.
Doran Schwartz
We don’t break out by region but we are seeing an increase backlog in all of our markets, just not the Central market, we’re seeing it in the pacific, the inner Mountain which is Montana, so we’re seeing an increase in almost all our backlogs and all our areas.
Michael Bates – DA Davidson
All right. And then on the E&P, with the improvement in natural gas economics, you noted that it’s driving a shift in your strategy in that segment.
Where do you expect natural gas production in 2013 versus last year?
Frank Morehouse
Yeah. So Michael, this is Ken.
We had forecast our decline in natural gas production to be in the 15% to 20%, we did anticipate when we put that forward that we would be turning back on some of the production that we had shut off last – May in last year. And we plan to do that over, during the summer, so therefore our forecast should remain the same.
While prices have improved significantly, there’s still are not at the point where we would look to invest in natural gas preferential to our oil. So, we will continue with their strategy of investing in the oil and therefore, we’re going to see the declines in the natural gas production.
Michael Bates – DA Davidson
Great. And then one final question, what was the weather impact for the utilities versus normal and versus last year?
Frank Morehouse
Thanks for the question, Michael. This is Frank.
We had actually, I think as Dave addressed in his comments depending on the area, up to 22% colder than normal temperatures and that greatly impacted our gas. However, we do have weather normalized rates in effect in both North Dakota, South Dakota and Oregon.
And so that is somewhat kept those volumes a little lower, but we still had a 16% increase over last year in our natural gas sales, also an increase in our electric sales.
Michael Bates – DA Davidson
Thank you.
Doran Schwartz
Thank you, Michael.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Holly Stewart with Howard Weil.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Good running, gentlemen.
Doran Schwartz
Good morning, Holly.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
First question for Ken, Ken can you give us update on the 12-1 Cane Creek well and then maybe some comparability in terms of exchange completions or you know, kind of strategy on this new well?
Frank Morehouse
Yeah, and Holly, I think you’re probably referring to the 18-1 which we’ve mentioned in the press release. So the 12-1 well has continued to remain strong.
If you remember we ramped it up to 1500 barrels a day in last October. It’s continued to produce at 1500 barrels a day since that time and still very strong.
I think the pressure last week was down to about £1800 volume pressure which is still very strong. Now we did end up shutting that well in last week.
We got out of spec on further refinery and so we’re resolving that issue. But then we expect to put it back on production at 1,500 barrels a day.
At some point, we will start to see that decline, but that well has performed extremely well. And we think for that particular well we got the production rate right at 1,500 barrels a day.
The 18-1 when we brought on in the last month. We’ve ramped it up to 1,000 barrels a day.
It is flowing right around 2,000 pounds of pressure. What we’re seeing we think the 1,000 barrels a day is probably the right production rate, but we will see with more time if that’s the right number or not.
But we’re really encouraged to have that follow up with the 12 well and then in the second quarter we would expect to complete another couple of wells as well. So we’re starting to get more data points that confirm that our – the way we’re completing our wells and approaching production will get us this consistent result.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
How long is it taking you to drill and complete these wells?
Dave Goodin
Historically, it has been somewhere in the 50 to 60 days on average. We did get it down to – I believe it was just under 40 days with the well earlier.
But I think we should still sort of on average, count on about 50 days for a while.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
So would it be possible for you guys to have some more results next quarter?
Dave Goodin
Yes.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Okay. And then maybe Kent, could you quantify the gas production shutdowns that will be turned online this summer, just so we can have an idea of – kind of quarter-over-quarter maybe increase?
Kent Wells
Yeah, I’d anticipate in round numbers we will break back about 10 million a day. This is – this will come from our Baker and Bowdoin fields where we have very shallow and low rate wells.
So its bringing on several hundred wells. And so we’ll do that, ramp that up probably over a one to two months period as we balance out gathering in compression systems and stuff.
But in the ballpark it’s 10 million over the next several – next two to three months.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Okay. And then maybe one for Steve, on the gas gathering volumes, any change thus far as natural gas prices have moved up and kind of produced your commentary or even produced your activity that could impact your gathering volumes.
Steve Bietz
Yet Holly, this is Steve. I think you probably hit it on the head, we are hearing a little more discussion about bringing wells back as Kent just mentioned.
They’re looking to bring some of their wells back online. We’ve had some other smaller producers kind of do a similar thing over the last month or two.
As far as kind of development activity, probably a little early for that, they haven’t heard a lot of discussion about a lot of additional drilling as we kind of sit here. But, we should see some unimproved volumes what Kent and his team are doing as we move forward here.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Okay. Great.
And then just maybe just a cleanup item for Doran. It looks like in the press release you talk about discontinuing the hedge accounting; will you guys break that out for us going forward so that we can kind of mark-to-market the model and the earnings on a quarterly basis?
Dave Goodin
Yeah, Holly, so what we will do is if you go to the yearend release and you take a look at the reconciliation table of GAAP earnings which would include the non-cash effects and then we’ll map those out on a separate line item to get to an adjusted earnings number. Going forward, that’s our anticipated approach for breaking that out.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Okay. So, you might not call it out separately, we will have to kind of back into it in terms of a recurring number.
Dave Goodin
No, it will be called out separately.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Okay.
Dave Goodin
We’ll do the non-cash effects on a separate line item for you.
Holly Stewart – Howard Weil
Perfect. All right.
Thanks guys.
Dave Goodin
Thanks Holly.
Operator
You next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Williams Capital.
Dave Goodin
Good morning, Chris.
Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital
Based on the first quarter results do you anticipate NGLs ending up being a positive production number for the year?
Frank Morehouse
Chris, this is Ken. I think we were forecasting a marginal change and I think we’re going to probably continue to see that as a marginal change year-over-year.
Our focus is really on oil production and I just don’t think it will be a material change.
Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital
Okay. And the – go ahead.
Frank Morehouse
No, that was all I had.
Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital
As far as the backlogs in the construction businesses these are probably the biggest increases in years, probably since 2007. Is this – did something happen at the beginning of the year that has made business more available?
Are you getting luckier? Can you give us some color because these are huge numbers relative to what has been happening the last four or five years.
Dave Goodin
They are significant numbers Chris, I will start with Dave, Barney on the material side and then we’ll move over to Jeff on the services side.
Dave Barney
Yeah, as far as – Chris this is Dave, as far on the material side, we have just picked up quite a bit of work in the first three months. In fact, it’s the biggest backlog we’ve had since 2008, not 2007 of the first quarter.
I don’t think it’s been lucky, with a bid, there is quite a bid list out there. But we’ve done a good job of targeting certain jobs and picking them up and we continue to see that going forward.
There is just more work out there to bid too Chris.
Dave Goodin
Okay. In construction services we’re still seeing tight margins, but volumes are increasing and work opportunities are also available.
So we need to remain disciplined on our pricing levels, but we have secured a couple of significant projects. One of them in the Midwest called Prairie Wind Transmission, about 23% complete, an important project for us.
But we know we’ve got to execute safely and productively, so we can bring those earnings to our books.
Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital
Okay, one more thing, Ken. You’ve secured some pretty attractive additional hedges.
Can you give us a little color on what you’re hedging strategies is for ‘14 and ‘15 right now?
Frank Morehouse
Yeah, Chris, our hedging strategy is always just to manage risk and so, we look at what our plans are, what the forecast are and we try to lock in hedges that sort of guarantee to deliver our plan or over deliver. We don’t get into any speculation on that and use it more as a risk management.
So we will continue to hedge in forward years as we believe it’s appropriate to management risk.
Chris Ellinghaus – Williams Capital
Okay. Thank you very much.
Doran Schwartz
Thank you, Chris.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Timm Schneider with ISI.
Timm Schneider – ISI
Hey guys. How’s it going?
Doran Schwartz
Hey, good morning Timm. Thanks for joining us.
Timm Schneider – ISI
No worries. Hey, a couple of questions on the Bakken specifically.
You have 40 locations you guys have left in Mountrail County. What do you think the opportunity set is there with down spacing and I think you’re doing a little bit of testing?
What could the ultimate locations be I guess and what spacing could you move down to?
Dave Goodin
That is the question of the day in the Bakken and I think all of industry is sort of trying to grapple that. There are others that are more aggressive than we’re on testing this Timm, and I think you have heard me say before we’re watching carefully what they are doing.
We’re not sure where that will lead. History has always showed that every sort of field goes through different phases of development and we’re arguably still in the first phase in the Bakken.
So I think there is the opportunity. And you can argue that if you do down space you are going to double the number of wells to be drilled that you have already drilled.
So I mean, that is sort of the potential that is out there. I’m not – I don’t feel comfortable enough throwing on a number yet on what that would mean.
I do know that in Mountrail County, for instance, we have done very little in the Three Forks, so there’s still an awful lot of potential there. And then the big opportunity for us actually it is in Richland County.
We have just recently tried a new frac technique there and we don’t have production results yet. But that would really open up the amount of investment opportunity we have in the Bakken for ourselves.
Timm Schneider – ISI
Yeah, actually sticking to Richland County for a second. Can you give us an update on what you guys are doing there?
Are you still testing, is that still something you are excited about, or has the overall I guess, if you could Bakken versus Paradox has the excitement level now just shifted off to the Paradox at this point?
Dave Goodin
No, it definitely hasn’t shifted. The Paradox is very exciting for us.
It’s an exciting basin period. And it’s so material for us.
I don’t want to take anything away from that, but, Richland County, if you remember what we talked about there was two hurdles we needed to get over. One we needed to be able to drill longer lateral wells, for the two mono laterals like we are doing in the rest of the Bakken which is what has made it economical these days.
We had well stability problems; so we hadn’t solved that problem yet. And then the probably the biggest lever is what is the actual fracking technique.
And we’ve tried a new technique that some others have been trying as well that we think holds a lot of potential, but we are just in the early flow back stages. The well is flowing back incredibly strong which will pump so much more water.
In the early days you are just getting enough water. So we just don’t have a good results, we will at the end of the second quarter be able to talk about how that is working for us.
Timm Schneider – ISI
And then just shifting real quick on the topping plant, can you just kind of give us some color as to what your long term margin assumptions are for that refinery or that topping plant I should say?
Steve Bietz
Tim, this is Steve. I guess we haven’t really got into all of the margin activity.
Let me just say we view this as a very strong project for us, kind of compared to what some of our other pipeline related activity. It’s got higher potential clearly, I think, we are looking at purchasing Bakken crude oil that certainly has many times sold at a discount in selling diesel into a market that seems to need additional diesel supplied to it.
So, we like those economics as I said today, what we shared is kind of looking at is double-digit returns, the ROIC-type returns on our investment there.
Timm Schneider – ISI
Okay. And last one for me, on the extreme side, I know Whiting still has some midstream plants and end of your neck is on the line there.
Any interest and maybe adding to what you already bought them?
Dave Goodin
We’re always looking for business development opportunities whether it would be with Whiting or other potential parties. So, yeah, we keep that door open.
Timm Schneider – ISI
Got it. Thanks guys.
Dave Goodin
Thanks Tim.
Operator
You next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Good morning, guys. Can you hear me?
Dave Goodin
Good morning Paul.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
How are you?
Dave Goodin
Good. Good.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Most of my questions have been answered, but just a certain follow-up on construction for a second. The big backlog increase, how should we think about margins again, just in general in relation to this increase – in terms of how they are trending?
Dave Barney
Paul, this is Dave Barney. On the margins of the construction backlog is about the same as it was last year in this quarter.
But we expect that to continue to grow as we get more into the year. As far as materials go, we’re seeing improvements in our margins and price increases.
So, we expect that to hold and positively grow.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Okay. And then – that’s great.
And then on the Paradox, it sounded, I mean you guys mentioned about the need to study this and to do more work before you get much more heavily involved. But, it sound like it was a very substantial opportunity.
So I was wondering if you could sort of give us a flavor as to how much time, the sort of study period might take and when we might hear more about what the potential opportunities, the significant potential opportunities that might be there?
Frank Morehouse
Yeah, Paul, this is Ken. I think it’s probably, I’m not sure I’d put it in the category of study as much as I would, we’re looking at how we execute.
This is a really complex basin from everything from drilling, completing production. It’s an area that’s – is a beautiful part of the country and we want to make sure we do things right.
So we’re trying to go at a pace that we don’t get ahead of ourselves. As Dave mentioned, we run to more seismic.
So, we’ve got a one program that we’re going forward with and we’ll continue to do that until we get to the point that the permitting process, our understanding of it, just allows that we can have very repeatable results, so that when we pick up the pace we don’t call a buster pick on it. So, I don’t have a timeframe in mind.
Obviously, we look to grow our production as quickly as possible and as soon as we feel comfortable with that, it’s a prudent decision for the company, we’ll do that.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Okay. I mean, I am don’t – I am not trying to hold it to a specific timeline or something.
I was just sort of trying to get a general sense as to, you know, are we talking year, I mean, this sort of like an eight year, if it’s possible, any sort of general timeframe?
Dave Goodin
Well, Paul, it’s not like we don’t think about it and talk about it. But I’m really not prepared to put a number on out and then I am going have it.
If I don’t have to explain it, you will have to explain it to somebody else, so.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Okay. Fair enough.
Thanks a lot guys.
Dave Goodin
Thanks, Paul.
Operator
You next question comes from the line of Dave Parker with Robert W Baird.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Congratulations on a good quarter. Suggestion for the second quarter earnings call may be you can bring some business development ideas or opportunity so we have something to talk about.
Dave Goodin
Okay. Thanks Dave for the idea.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Yeah, that’s a joke. Well, obviously, we’re all kind of taken aback by – the quick turnaround, in particular in the aggregate side, material side of the business.
I was looking for a tough comp in the first quarter, particularly in the volume side because it was so mild last winter. So maybe we can start there and give us a little color on why the volumes were up so strong?
Dave Goodin
I – you came in a little sketchy on that one, Dave. Could you repeat your questions for Dave Barney?
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Yeah, it was – with mild winter weather last year, I was expecting kind of the aggregate sales to be a tough comp this year and yet that wasn’t the case. Any color you can provide there, I know you have been providing a lot of color, but that was one surprise.
Dave Barney
Actually, we had more work with our sister company, Fidelity this year than we did last year doing well pads and that definitely helped us this year in North Dakota. And – we started the refinery in the end of March so we have a little bit of that work there.
But that definitely helped increase our aggregate volumes in North Dakota this year.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
And so do you expect that trend to continue throughout the rest of the year, Dave?
Dave Barney
Do we can’t?
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
He is writing a check, okay, good. Second question, on the pipeline extension opportunity for the fertilizer company.
What size of an opportunity would that be? Is there something if you extend that pipe, are you able to do other things other than just a regular fertilizer company?
Dave Goodin
To start out, in terms of the plant itself, expected consumption of natural gas is in the 90,000 McF a day range. So that requires some pretty substantial pipe to be brought in there.
We are studying some different alternatives to get gas to that location. So, it’s a little early to kind of give you an idea of kind of the investment and so forth.
But it could range from some fairly short pipe to some pretty extension pipe all the way from the Bakken region over to that area. So, a bit early there – the second part of your question, what was that again?
Could you repeat that?
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
If you extend a pipe over the fertilizer company is there ways you could pick up other customers or wasn’t maybe necessarily to make sense before.
Dave Goodin
Absolutely, that’s part of our approach to this project as well. If you look at the Eastern North Dakota, it’s always been a bit short on natural gas supply.
So moving gas kind of that direction would certainly positively affect the loads that our existing system as well as maybe supplying some additional loads that are currently supplied by others in Eastern North Dakota. And if you kind of go from the Bakken all the way in that direction, there is potential load to be picked up along that route as well.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
And one last question on that pipe, Steve is it, how would that be regulated or is that regulated by – or how is that?
Dave Goodin
That would be under our WBI Energy Transmission or regulated business and would be subject to FDRC or Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval and regulation.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Finally. Do you see with gas prices increasing seeing anymore appetite for storage capacity or is it too early?
Dave Goodin
We haven’t really seen it at this point. What really drives storage is the differentials, kind of summer versus winter or summer – current prices versus forecasted prices.
We’ve seen the kind of the current strip or near months kind of move up and the outer months haven’t moved up probably quite as much. So, it’s a little bit early, kind of forecast or storage activity this year, but we’ll get to stay tuned there.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
All right. And maybe – I don’t know you guys laid this out on the Utility Day or – I’m sorry your Analyst Day, and I’m just missing the details there.
But a $1 billion in the utility CapEx in five years, and I add up the projects you got and I get to 300 million or 400 million, what’s the remainder there, can you – if you just refresh our memory of maybe general buckets.
Dave Goodin
Yeah, I’ll Frank touch base on that one. But I think you’re partially right, Dave.
Frank Morehouse
Thanks Dave, this is Frank. The – we have a number of projects that we have in our five-year plan.
One is a major transmission line project about $125 million of investment there. We have, of course, our air-quality project there at the Big Stone plant, $100 million all on those lines.
We also have a number of pipeline replacement and safety integrity management projects that are going on. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, we have a new pipeline being built for the Haskett generation facility.
So all of those, begin to look at the Haskett new facility for the gas turbine. There are just a number of major projects.
You know, sort of aligned to that and the very good growth that we’re seeing and experiencing here with population expansions in the Bakken. We’re also seeing some pretty significant growth within the other utilities out west you know, customer growth to the north side of 1 and 1.5% of that way which definitely speaks towards a recovering economy and a bright future for the utility.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Yeah. Does that paper placement, Frank were covered, is it tracked or do you have to do a rate case or eventually get that into rate base recovery?
Frank Morehouse
In most cases we’re going to have to do a rate case for that recovery. Washington has just recently passed some legislation and the public service commission out there, WTUC has allowed for a tracker recovery.
We have not applied for that yet, but we intend to.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
Okay. Great.
And one last question just on the mark-to-market issue, do I assume the guidance will exclude the mark-to-market gain losses that you can forecast?
Doran Schwartz
Yeah, that’s right Dave. So, our approach to this is just – so we’re all on the same page going forward.
Starting with the second quarter press release, we’re not including anything in our guidance as far as potential non-cash effects from changes in value from the hedges. And then what we’ll do is, we will put a reconciling table into the second quarter press release that says, here is GAAP earnings, here is the effect of the non-cash hedges and then get you to an adjusted earnings number which is more cash based and then that’s the number then that relates or correlates back to like how we’re discussing guidance.
Dave Parker – Robert W Baird
All right. Perfect.
That’s excellent. Thanks so much Doran.
Thanks for the answers, I appreciate it and again congratulations.
Doran Schwartz
Great. Thank you, Dave.
Operator
(Operator Instructions). This call will be available for replay beginning at 1:00 p.m.
Eastern Time today until 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on May 15.
The conference ID number for the replay is 30760556. Again, the conference ID number for the replay is 30760556.
Your next question comes from the line of Matt Tucker with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Follow-ups on the construction side. As all of the anticipated work for the refinery already reflected in the first quarter backlogs?
Dave Goodin
No, it is not, Matt. I think we got about 7 million that work in the backlog for the first quarter.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Is that going to kind of continued to grow throughout the course of the project, or is there going to be another kind of slog in the second quarter.
Dave Goodin
On the material side, we anticipate that will grow for the year. We’re not sure how much.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Okay. Thanks.
And then just with reference to your comment in the press release you expect margins to improve this year. Can you give us a sense to how much is related to the current pricing in the backlog or pricing on current bids as opposed to just seeing stronger volumes and, you know, better utilization in operating leverage.
Jeff Thiede
This is Jeff. We think stronger volumes will help.
Margins are continuing to be very competitive. We’re seeing an uptick in Las Vegas.
If you look at our Las Vegas companies, all companies, all five of our companies in southern Nevada have increased. No, we haven’t returned back to the peak earnings level but we see an improvement in that area.
So we think volumes will help. We think our operational efficiencies will improve as well.
I think in our tough times that we’ve had in southern Nevada and across the country, we have gotten stronger. Our people have done more with less and we’ve looked at ways to prefabricate on our projects.
We have become more efficient and we have always kept safety that’s the first part of our plans.
Matt Tucker – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Great. Thanks guys and congrats again.
Dave Goodin
Thank you Matt. Thanks for joining us today.
Operator
At this time there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.
Doran Schwartz
We all are certainly excited as well as focused on executing on our substantial growth opportunities right in front of us, and as we are continuing to push forward on better leveraging, our expertise across our business units as well. We appreciate everyone’s participation on our call today and we will keep you updated as we move throughout this year.
Again, thank you for your interest in MDU resources.
Operator
This concludes today’s MTU Resources Group conference call. Thank you for your participation.
You may now disconnect.