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Red Rock Resorts, Inc.

RRR US

Red Rock Resorts, Inc.United States Composite

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Q2 2008 · Earnings Call Transcript

Aug 1, 2008

Operator

Welcome to the RSC Holdings second quarter 2008 conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Gerry Gould, the company’s Vice President Investor Relations.

Gerry Gould

Joining me today from the company are Erik Olsson, President and Chief Executive Officer and David Mathieson, Sr. Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

We published our second quarter results and updated our 2008 guidance in a press release issued approximately one hour ago. There’s also a second quarter results slide presentation that accompanies this earnings call, press release, as well as the webcast, and its accompanying slide presentation, and any non-GAAP reconciliation tables that are warranted can all accessed on the RSC Holdings website at www.rscrental.com in the Investor’s section under the About Us tab.

This conference is being recorded for replay purposes. If you have any questions after this call, please call me.

At this time, please turn to slide number two. Before the presentation and comments begin, RSC would like to alert you that some of the comments such as the company's outlook and responses to your questions include forward-looking statements.

As such, they are based on certain assumptions of future events and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may not prove to be accurate. Actual future results may vary materially.

In addition, the factors underlying the company's outlook are dynamic and subject to change and, therefore, this outlook and all other information mentioned today speaks only as of today, and RSC does not intend to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances. RSC encourages you to read this risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's annual report on form 10K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and our other SEC filings.

I will now turn the call over to Erik Olsson.

Erik Olsson

I will go over some highlights of the quarter and David will then talk in more detail about our financials. I will also talk about our outlook for 2008 and we will end with Q&A.

Beginning on slide number three, we were very pleased with our performance in the second quarter, delivering organic rental revenue growth of 5.3%, while raising our rental rates on a sequential basis from the first quarter by 0.9%. Profit margins were strong with adjusted EBITDA reaching 46.1% and we are enjoying a very strong underlying free cash flow.

This is how we believe the business should be run at this time. The strong focus on high profit margins generating free cash flow.

A growth rate could have been even higher in the second quarter, but would have come at the expense of higher CapEx and lower rates and margins. Instead, we have proactively chosen to curb CapEx to support rates and profit margins and generate free cash flow.

The second quarter performance demonstrates the strength and flexibility of our business model. The main elements of which are a strong and proactive business discipline, which includes pricing, demanding the CapEx, balancing the fleet we sell versus that which we buy, to always have a high demand fleet mix on hand, and a dedication to operating with optimal efficiency.

Secondly, our commitment to providing customers superior service and reliable access to one of the youngest, safest, and most diverse fleets in the industry. Third, a diverse customer base covering both the non-residential construction and industrial or non-construction markets.

And finally, a broad and national presence, which enables us to redeploy our fleets to areas of highest customer demand, which helps us maximize utilization and returns. Turning now to slide number four and that’s where we are beginning to see the onset of the period of weakening non-residential construction demand.

We see the current economic climate as opportunities to continue to show leadership within our industry by maintaining our rental rate discipline, reducing CapEx, adopting our cost structure, and competing with our superior customer service offering. In our view, managing a rental business, in particularly in a changing and challenging market environment like we face today, comes down to execution of a few key concepts.

Operating discipline, flexibility or adaptability, and speed. We’ve done a very good job of incorporating these concepts into a business model that works both up and down in a cycle and the strength of this proactive model clearly showed in the second quarter.

In the second quarter, we maintained strong discipline in pricing, raising rental rates by 0.9% sequentially from the first quarter. This was no easy task, but by providing superior value to our customers and having follow-up systems and processes that drive accountability and by constantly moving fleets from low demand to high demand areas, we were able to deliver these improvements.

Secondly, we maintained discipline in CapEx spending. We cut our net CapEx from $195 million in the second quarter last year to $63 million this year in response to slower growth, reduced need for replacement CapEx as our fleet is young and well-maintained, and importantly by redeploying fleets from low demand areas or from closed stores to areas in stores with higher demand.

Third, we continued our efforts to adapt in our cost structure by raising the bar on store performance. We consolidated ten stores and reduced our headcount by 95 employees in the quarter and 140 year-to-date in a planned and strategic manner.

In most cases, we retained the sales force on fleet, relocating them to nearby store and this enabled us to achieve long-term stability by maintaining a presence in this market and continuing to serve customers while achieving our immediate goals of profit improvement and utilization of fleets. Initiating these actions as a normal course of business allows us to make changes in a disciplined and thoughtful manner and retain key staff to minimize revenue losses.

We would expect to see a similar number of store closings in the third quarter. Importantly, and as a result, the free cash flow characteristics of the company are very strong.

The free cash flow in the quarter was positive and reached $91 million, underscoring our ability to manage fleet and CapEx to generate positive cash flow. This allowed us to reduce debt while retaining one of the youngest fleets in the industry.

Now as you can see on slide number five, in a difficult market we succeeded in delivering organic rental revenue growth of 5.3%. Same store sales growth was a very solid 4.4%, which is an impressive performance in a competitive market in a challenging economic environment, but consistent with our historical track record of growing faster than our underlying markets and our main competitors.

We also completed the previously announced acquisition of American Equipment Rentals in early July. The acquisition provides access to three key markets in New England, which is one of our target growth areas.

The scalability of our business model together with effective cost management and a focus on efficiencies enabled us to offset several challenges in the quarter with few prices at unprecedented levels, which we could not fully recover in our fuel and delivery charges due to competitive pressures. We were able to hold declines and rental rates to only 0.5% on a year-over-year basis and we incurred cost associated with store closures.

And while total revenues grew a modest 1.4%, largely as a result of reduced equipment sales, our margins were impressive and operating margin reached 25.5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached $46.1% and return on capital employed was 22%, well above our cost of capital.

In addition to these activities, we remain very active in driving improvements to our model and investing for the future. Let me give you four examples and they are outlined on slide number 6.

First, we have strengthened our sales and business development efforts by adding two key executives to our management team to lead these efforts into newly created positions. Second, in the second quarter, we established a company-wide training center in Denver where we will further develop and invest in our employees by delivering training, such as sales, leadership, product knowledge, on a continuing basis.

Third, for years our customer-driven initiatives have provided huge benefits in efficiency, customer service, reliability and availability, while positively impacting the environment and saving significant expenses and importantly still making strong business sense. One such an initiative in the second quarter was when we became the first rental company to adopt solid tires on all new reach fork lifts.

Solid rubber tires have a three to four times longer use of a lifetime than standard or foam-filled tires, leading to a decrease in down time, fewer costly replacements, and elimination of waste. These environmentally friendly initiatives which benefits our customers also have a healthy impact on our own bottom line.

Lastly, we performed and are finalizing a talent review and development assessment of our top 650 managers in order to make sure we develop and have the strongest team possible at all times as we face what appear to be more challenging times. We believe that taking these actions will position us even better and leave us prepared to enter and ultimately exit in a slowdown, leaner and with our very best performing stores, managers, and employees.

Again, adhering to the strategy of proactive managing the key levers of our business, rental rate, fleet utilization, CapEx, and free cash flow. Moving onto slide number seven, RSC has two main end markets.

Non-residential construction, which makes up slightly less than 60% of our revenues and the industrial or non-construction market Non-construction includes such diversified industry segments of petrochemical, power and energy, mining, food processing, steel plants, and entertainment, to name a few. We believe the mix of diversified construction and non-construction markets provide us attractive end market diversity that complements our strong national footprints.

Our core rental business continued to see good growth in the quarter largely driven by successes in our industrial segment where our growth continued to outpace the non-residential revenue growth. The industrial business provides different seasonality from the traditional construction markets.

Our plan is to continue to keep growing this segment faster than the construction segment and continue to gradually increase the overall waiting of industrial revenue mix to further diversify the end markets. Of course, overall market demand varies across geographies and the reason strong markets like Texas, Midwest, Gulf Coast and Canada continue to show healthy demand, albeit at the moderating rate.

While the housing related markets like Florida, California and Arizona remain down sharply; however, there’s no doubt that RSC’s geographic diversity across North America, along with our large and expanding industrial presence and balanced and highly utilized fleet mix, are significant benefits to us at this time. 2008 macro economic forecasts are pointing to further softening in the non-residential construction market and I will come back to how we are addressing this later in this call.

Turning now to slide number eight, you see our utilization rebounded strongly from the first quarter and reached 71.6% for the second quarter and validates our decision to maintain fleet in certain geographies. With utilization roughly at 72% and unavailable fleet at the best in class 8%, we have just about the right amount of fleets, namely 20% available for rent at any time, which is a key customer service requirement.

Redeployment of fleet is critical in achieving both the high level of customer service, capital efficiency, and high utilization, as well as the protect rate as I mentioned previously. In the second quarter, we moved $86 million dollars of fleet at the regional cost between regions and we moved $392 million of fleet between districts.

Despite the high cost of fuel, we find it is always better to move under-utilized fleet with areas with higher demand in order to avoid price erosion or idle equipment. The fleet is in excellent condition thanks to our high standards for preventive maintenance.

We were over 98% current on the manufacturer’s recommended steps at the end of the quarter. Our fleet at original cost amounted to $2.7 billion dollars and the average age was 29 months.

We believe this age provide with tremendous cash flow flexibility on a go forward basis, because as already noted, we can reduce CapEx, this well-maintained fleets. The used equipment market itself remains healthy and we have had no problems in disposing of equipment of very good prices, primarily through direct sales to end users.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to David for a few words on our financial statements.

David Mathieson

I would like to spend the next few minutes going over some additional detail on our second quarter financial statements beginning with slide ten, which shows our rate and volume transfer into revenues Rental volumes increased a solid 5.8%. In strategy to protect profit margins and in a pricing discipline, we redeployed fleet from weaker areas or from closed or consolidated stores to areas with better returns and rates rather than adding fleet and chasing volume growth at the expense of pricing.

As we said, as a result of our disciplined approach to pricing, sequential rates were up 0.9% in the quarter, keeping the year-over-year decline to a mere 0.5% in a very competitive market. As we have stated before, our objective is continue to manage rates very tightly and focus on value selling and service as opposed to price competition and thereby protect profit margins.

Of course, we’re now completely insulated from the competitive environment and we will have to continue to monitor pricing on a daily basis and continue to manage rates such as volume growth very carefully in this environment to protect profit margins. Moving to slide 11, rental revenues are up a solid 5.3% for the quarter, despite a more challenging economic environment.

Merchandise revenues were down 7%, and on a same store basis have increased slightly over the first quarter. Used equipment sales are down as planned, as we want to preserve fleet in order to minimize capital expenditures going forward.

Our margins are also strong. Our fleet age at the end of the quarter it was 28 months and as Erik has mentioned this gives us tremendous flexibility going forward in manage of CapEx investments.

Margins on rentals are down principally due to the higher depreciation and larger fleet rental equipment and higher fuel costs, the latter being up year-over-year by over $5 million in the quarter. Fuel costs are up over 50% year-to-date.

We are experiencing strong margins on merchandise as we are focused on more complementary products for our walk-in customers. Continuing to slide 12, SG&A is at 9.3%, up 70 basis points from the prior year.

This largely reflects the additional costs associated with being a public company. Depreciation on non-rental tends to track the fleet spend, as we buy trucks and automobiles for our sales force in line with the expanding fleet.

Interest expense, $14 million, as we have lower debt thanks to the strong free cash flow and better rates than last year. Net income is $14 million, up $5 million or 9%.

Diluted earnings per share is $0.59 cents, 0.03 cents higher than adjusted earnings per share last year, but our share count is also up as last year's financials did not fully reflect the IPO. On slide 12, we show our annual adjusted EBITDA and the quarterly numbers as well as margins.

You can see that we continue to generate significant EBITDA and consistently high margins. On slide 14, as free cash flow is critical to us, we have continued the presentation of our cash flow to be as transparent as possible so that our debt and equity investors can see the very strong cash flow characteristics that this company has.

To do that, we have spelled out how [stables] have impacted the cash flows as we have very favorable terms. We have also sub-totaled the cash flow to show not only free cash flow before growth CapEx, then showing growth CapEx separately to get to unlevered cash flows before levage.

Let me briefly comment on why we have done this and then I will comment on the results. Since we have very favorable terms with our suppliers, this can have a significant impact on our cash flows as we go from one to another with significant changes in CapEx.

This year, for example, we expect our accounts payable to fall by $175 million and we’re just about halfway there with a reduction year-to-date of $82 million with more to come in the second half. Free cash flow before growth CapEx is a metric that is independent of capital structure and growth and we believe is a strong indicator of relative and absolute performance among industry participants.

Growth CapEx is a discretionary decision we make based on how successful we are in achieving growth and we show growth CapEx separately as we have been growing faster than our major competitors and we consider growing faster than your competitors as a major positive. On the results from sales, you can see the unlevered cash flow before growth CapEx as a percent of sales is very strong in the second quarter, 32% of sales, and you can see the changes from prior year came from most of the deficiencies in cash flow.

Year-to-date, our unlevered cash flow and percent of sales is 17%, than last year by $138 million, but with a negative swing in [ ] of $156 million from a source of $74 million to a use of $82 million. The most significant change is to growth CapEx, where year-to-date we are down to $63 million from $203 million last year.

That’s a 69% reduction and this demonstrates the beauty of this business model and the benefits of a young fleet. As the business flows, CapEx, and still generates strong cash flows.

So even in more challenging times, we can still generate strong cash flows. Other income, amortization of financing costs, income taxes, etc.

Replacement CapEx we define as CapEx required to replace fleet that we have sold, but as growth CapEx is where we buy assets to expand and grow our fleet. On slide 15 is the balance sheet for the last seven quarters.

You can see that we have bought a net rental equipment from a peak in third quarter 2007 as in the last three quarters, our depreciation has exceeded our capital expenditures. Now debt has gone down on the strength of a $17 million reduction and has just ended second quarter due to the strong free cash flow.

We are very comfortable with our debt levels as we have a highly liquid pool of assets. Our leverage ratio went up a tick this quarter to 3.3 as expected as a result in improvement in a leverage ratio beginning of the second quarter, we will step down our interest rate beginning of August, an access rate at 25 business points lower than we were in the first half for the evolving credit facility.

This is also the first quarter as a public company that we showed positive equity. Slide 16 details our debt at the end of the quarter.

You can see that 58% of our debt is variable, 42% is fixed, and our maturity is toward the end of 2011, and we have adequate borrowings of over $500 million dollars. Now, I would like to turn the call back to Erik.

Erik Olsson

Before we go to Q&A, I want to give you our outlook for 2008. Overall we believe the way we manage our business and the actions we’ve taken in the competitive but comparably benign first and second quarters of 2008 have prepared us for the more challenging conditions ahead.

Thanks to the work we have done, we expect to enter and ultimately exit this period a more efficient and effective company, affirming our best in class status in terms of management, store performance, and fleet utilization. Moving to slide number 18, the outlook for the second half of 2008 for the overall economy and specifically the construction end markets has progressively weakened and visibility is more limited.

The lingering credit crunch, historically low activity levels, as measured by the architectural building index, and all prices as where they are today make it very difficult to project performance beyond the next few months. Rising fuel costs and the reduced outlook for non-residential construction activity represent meaningful changes from the assumptions we previously used for determining our guidance.

In line with our strategy, we will continue to prioritize rate stability over volume resulting in slightly lower rental revenues than previously anticipated, but also in a higher free cash flow. This requires us to alter the guidance we have given.

So at this time we are revising our full year guidance on rental revenue growth to 3 to 5% down from 4 to 7% we previously expected. Adjusted EBITDA is now seen in a range of $790 to $810 million and diluted earnings per share $1.27 to $1.39, down from previous estimates of $835 to $860 million and $1.44 and $1.56 respectfully.

As noted, we expect approximately $20 million more of free cash flow than previously estimated and we should be in the range of $150 to $200 million. We’re very pleased with this level of free cash flow ration considering the fact that we are downshifting from the period of high expansion and, therefore, reducing our accounts payable by $175 million this year.

This means that the underlying run rate of free cash flow in 2008 is around $325 to $375 million. Now the updated EBITDA outlook for 2008, which indicates a very solid profit margin of around 44.5% includes among other things $20 to $25 million of profit impact from lower revenues in a combination of less price realization than originally planned.

Still higher than the industry average through and lower volumes as we pare back growth CapEx to support price and preserve profit margins. Those include $15 to $20 million of net increment of fuel costs and $7 to $10 million of store closure and severance costs.

The benefits of this right sizing of our structure will be gradually realized and reach $10 to $15 million dollars on an annual basis. Within this environment, we are adhering to our strategy of reducing both replacement and growth CapEx in order to maximize cash flow and profit margins.

We will continue to consolidate and close low performing locations and while we will continue to open new locations in attractive markets, we will reduce the overall number of warm starts for this year. To summarize on slide 19, we see challenges ahead for our industry and while we cannot totally insulate ourselves from these challenges, our focus on rental rates, high utilization, profit margins, and free cash flow in combination with our highly flexible and proactive business model, our geographic reach, balance fleet mix, and growing non-construction or industrial business, position us well for these more challenging times.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to the operator for the instructions on the Q&A.

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The first question comes from Emily Shanks of Lehman Brothers.

Emily Shanks

I have a question really around fuel. Thank you, David, for the commentary you said I believe it was up about 50% year-to-date.

Can you give us a sense if you, one, if you utilize a fuel surcharge at all. Two, we get the sense that it sounds like competitors are not passing through those fuel costs increases in total, and want to get a sense of how long that had been going on.

Also, finally, where exactly does fuel fall in your PNO?

David Mathieson

Most of the fuel falls in the cost of rental, some in SG&A for sales for example, but most of it falls in customer rental. In the first half of the year, our fuels went from $16 million to $25 million.

So we suffered a $9 million increase in the first half and that’s just continuing. We have kicked off a surcharge as applicable the end of July.

So we will begin to call some of that back, but we don’t expect to call all of it back, Emily.

Emily Shanks

Are you seeing your competitors utilize a fuel surcharge as well?

David Mathieson

No, generally no.

Operator

Your next question comes from Philip Volpicelli from Goldman Sachs.

Philip Volpicelli

With regard to rental rates, can you give us a sense of what your outlook includes in terms of rental rates year-over-year and for the second half and if you could comment regionally what you’re seeing with rates?

David Mathieson

Yes, Phillip, our focus is on sequential rate improvements and that’s where we put the emphasis and we were very successful as we said in the second quarter of getting sequential improvement in each individual month of the quarter and that’s what we’re going to do going forward. So we put our emphasis there and we don’t expect to deteriorate from the level we are at now on a year-over-year basis.

On a regional sector, we see exactly the same we saw in the first quarter back then. Most of the price pressure is seen in this market down sharply, Florida, California, and like we reported back in the first quarter, we also continue to see price pressure in northeast markets.

Philip Volpicelli

Okay, you’re going to hold rate as best you can and the decline, the 20 to 25%, is mostly going to be utilization?

David Mathieson

We are down half percent on a year-over-year basis and if we match our sequential basis what we did last year, we would be down a half a percent for the full year as well. So that translates to more if you take that over our revenues.

Philip Volpicelli

One of your competitors suggest that a one rate change, a change of 1% in rate, is about $25 million EBITDA. How does that compare for you guys?

Erik Olsson

That’s about $15 million for us.

Operator

The next question comes from Manish Zumaya with Citigroup.

Manish Zumaya

I did see that your pricing went up sequentially. How much was that associated with seasonality and how much the actions that you took in the quarter?

Erik Olsson

There’s really no seasonality in our pricing. So I would say all of it is due to the actions that we have taken.

Manish Zumaya

It looks like you created a new position with hiring Kevin on the acquisition front and I just want to get a sense as to what kind of opportunities are you seeing, and furthermore, what kind of flexibility do you have with your bank agreement to make acquisitions?

Erik Olsson

We’ve added, Kevin, in the financial business development. It’s more than just acquisitions that we talked about many times.

We see there are tremendous opportunities in different ways for us to grow and we’ve added resource and extra horse power with the addition of Kevin there. At this point, we keep looking, we have the pipeline of smaller type acquisitions.

We closed one here in July and we’re looking at others as well.

David Mathieson

Our second wind is probably the most restrictive covenant. Cumulatively we can spend up to $150 million, but even then we can find different ways to finance things.

It’s not insurmountable. We don’t see any issues at this point.

Manish Zumaya

Erik mentioned the used equipment market continues to be strong. Can you give us a perspective on how that market looks?

Erik Olsson

We sell almost 80% of our used is going retail. So we don’t have a perfect picture of where the equipment ends up in the end.

I believe there is a strong global demand still though and that’s what we hear. We have good margins as you’ve seen in our report and we get good margins actually on all product, different product categories at this time.

So we don’t see any softness in any category of what we’re selling.

Operator

The next question comes from Henry Kern with UBS.

Henry Kern

Quick question on the industrial customers. How do you view them holding up right now and have you seen any signs of degradation in demand there?

Erik Olsson

They’re holding up very well. I think we are growing with our existing customers, but we’re also adding a lot of industrial customers.

We’ve seen being very strong. We’ve seen some delays of some turned around projects in the petrochem area, but we expect those to come back online here later in the third quarter.

Overall we see no softness in that segment.

Henry Kern

As far as the fleet, when you look at the equipment categories, can you give a sense of where you might be cutting more and where you might be cutting less or adding?

Erik Olsson

Generally speaking of our fleet mix, we would have two trends or many significance to mention and that’s our equipment continues to shrink as a percentage of the total fleet and is now down to 17% down from 18 to 18 and a half percent or so a year go, while our boom category has grown by a percentage point or so to 30% of our fleet now. Other than that, it’s very much the same mix.

Henry Kern

Are there any changes going forward?

Erik Olsson

Our fleet is determined of what we sell and what we buy and what we sell and what we buy is determined by the demand level from the field. So there may be changes, but they will be customer-driven or demand-driven.

Your next question comes from Scott Schneeberger.

Scott Schneeberger

Following up on the questions about the used sales market or your activity within, you guys were a bit lower than we had expected in the quarter obviously going into the aging of the fleet stage. Erik, your thoughts on what we should expect going forward?

Erik Olsson

Roughly similar levels in the second half as we had in the first half, Scott.

Scott Schneeberger

With regard to utilization, how are you doing with fleet that’s not available for rental? Are you making good progress on that measure?

Erik Olsson

Like we said, it’s getting increasingly difficult to improve an already low number and we were at 8% here in the second quarter as well.

Scott Schneeberger

I think you had been looking for 20 new starts this year and you said you are going to reduce that and you did have some closures. Could you just speak a little bit to geographies where this is occurring?

David Mathieson

Closed stores all over the country. It’s not limited to anyone geography.

We closed a store in Michigan, in Ohio, West Virginia, Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Virginia, Arizona, Kentucky, and New Mexico. So we started a program earlier this year to look at low performing stores, stores that weren’t earning the cost of capital.

Erik and I have reviewed every one of those. We call them the weakers and if you’re on the weakers, you want to get off that as quickly as you can.

That’s what we’re doing and it’s not a geographic thing. It’s more an individual store-by-store.

And the same goes for the stores that we’re looking to open and we’re guided to just over 20 for the year. I think we cut that back by at least 25% now and we’re looking at each one of the remaining ones on a stand alone basis to see if it makes sense to open them now or if we should postpone them to 2009 or at another date and again, it’s all over the country.

There’s no specific areas.

Scott Schneeberger

For the stores that you’re calling, is there a target number you pursue or is it just you look at the ones on the list that in question and attempt to turn around. Store-by-store or is there quote is not a fair word but it’s kind of what I’m going for.

David Mathieson

It’s on a store-by-store basis and we’re not targeting a specific number. Each one stands on their own and, like we said, we did ten in the second quarter.

We expect a similar number, maybe slightly higher in the third quarter, and then that’s what we’re going to do.

Operator

Your next question comes from Vance Elfin with Morgan Stanley.

Vance Elfin

I was wondering what the trends are for the price of new equipment for when you are more in a buying mode and the impact that that might have on CapEx going forward?

David Mathieson

We negotiate lock-in prices a year in advance. So we have locked in our prices for 2008.

Obviously, what 2009 will bring is too early to tell. There’s been a lot of inflation in the raw materials area and we can only look back and see last time this happened back in 2003-2004 when steel prices also exploded.

We saw an increase in the producer price index of about 3% in the two years following that. We don’t expect to see any major price pressure, but obviously there will be some.

Vance Elfin

Just to follow up on something earlier. So the visibility is obviously low right now, but based on what you’re seeing on the front lines in terms of the weak economy, do you have a feel for how bad this downturn is compared to what you’ve seen in past recessions and can you take any stab on when you think it might improve?

Erik Olsson

It’s too early to tell and compare this to others. I think the last downturn we had in 2001-2002 was really a bad one, but that was driven by a lot of industry-specific elements as well as some external elements like the 911.

This one, it’s too early to tell. I think the important thing to note here is that we’re taking the appropriate steps to be very flexible, to go into this more challenging times as lean as possible and with high utilization, with a focus on rates, a focus on reducing CapEx, and generate free cash flow.

In doing that, we will be able to tackle whatever comes next.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Schneider from Chris Doherty with Oppenheimer.

Chris Doherty

Erik, just in terms of your fleet, I know if you sort of look at your net CapEx guidance and sort of look where you are now, it looks like you’re going to spend a little bit more on the fleet, but I’m just wondering from a unit standpoint, is that up or is there some cost inflation to replacement CapEx?

Erik Olsson

There’s very limited cost inflation. Like I said, we’ve locked in prices for 2008 in late 2007, so there’s very limited cost inflation in that.

Chris Doherty

That would then imply that you do plan to grow the fleet a little bit in the second half of the year?

Erik Olsson

At the end of the day, I think our fleet will shrink toward the end of the year. The vast majority, not all of the CapEx, will be just replacement CapEx.

Chris Doherty

David, just a question on the AP. I know you said that you expected to decline about $175 million a year.

I think last quarter you said you expected it to fall $60 million in the second quarter. It actually went up.

It looks like $40 to $50 million dollars. Was there something that changed there?

David Mathieson

No, there’s nothing that’s changed. This is very close to what we expected.

Part of the difference is in the last half. If you look at the guidance for CapEx, you’ll see CapEx in the last half of the year is staying between 70 and 80%.

That again will drive down accounts payable.

Chris Doherty

I’m just looking where it was $150 last quarter and $182 this quarter and that’s up $30.

David Mathieson

That’s because in the second quarter we had fleet from our seasonal perspective.

Operator

And the next question comes from Brandt Sakakeeny with Deutsche Bank.

Brandt Sakakeeny

Question on the SG&A. That’s up obviously year-over-year and I think you said it’s some public company cause.

As we look at the back half of this year, can you just talk about the incremental SG&A and how much of that is coming from the one-time cost associated with closing some of the offices and maybe how we should look at that expense as we look out to ’09.

David Mathieson

Only 10% of the cost of closures flows into SG&A. So that’s not tremendous.

I’d expect the last half to be 9.3 to 9.5%, that kind of range, Brandt.

Brandt Sakakeeny

With respect to share buybacks, I know there are covenants that restrict that, but can you just talk about your thinking there and also your assumptions for second half interest expense.

Erik Olsson

On the share buybacks, we haven’t decided that. That’s one opportunity or alternative that we have to use our free cash flow for and the board has these questions and we’ll determine what to do with that.

Brandt Sakakeeny

Can you remind us what you’re allowed on the covenant? Is it $50 million?

Erik Olsson

It’s $50 million maximum that we can do.

Brandt Sakakeeny

On the revolver, you can purchase anything. Right?

David Mathieson

Yeah.

Brandt Sakakeeny

David, do you have your back half interest expense or your full year interest expense assumption?

David Mathieson

Range, $200 million.

Operator

Your next question comes from Chiana Baird with Symphony Asset Management.

Chiana Baird

My question was actually just answered about the stock buyback. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is a follow up from Philip Volpicelli with Goldman Sachs.

Philip Volpicelli

Just wondering if you guys were willing to give us what you think the debt levels will be at the end of the year and you answered the share repurchase, but assuming you don’t do a share repurchase with all of the free cash flow paying down the revolver.

David Mathieson

Yes.

Philip Volpicelli

Okay. So if I just take the LTN number and subtract that to free cash flow guidance, that’s where we think that will be at the end of the year?

David Mathieson

That’s not by way to do it.

Philip Volpicelli

In the working capital, that could grow that if we do realize the savings that you’re talking about. Right, David?

David Mathieson

I don’t understand what you’re talking about there.

Philip Volpicelli

Well if you source cash out of working capital. In other words, you’re using less cash in accounts payable and so forth.

You should have more than just the capital expenditure for free cash flow. So your debt level could be a little bit lower.

I’m just trying to get a sense of, you know, the number one priority here is paying down debt or is it other things?

Erik Olsson

Definitely it’s paying down debt or developing the business through acquisitions, but at this point it’s fair to assume that the majority of our free cash flow will go to debt repayment.

Operator

Your final question is a follow up from Brandt Sakakeeny with Deutsche Bank.

Brandt Sakakeeny

Just one housekeeping item. Did you have the fez charge, David, available in the quarter?

David Mathieson

It’s a one million.

Brandt Sakakeeny

Just one other thing. Did you have the store count numbers as of the end of the quarter?

David Mathieson

468 locations.

Operator

This completes the question-and-answer of today’s call. At this time, I’d like to turn the call back to Mr.

Olsson for any closing remarks. Mr.

Olsson?

Erik Olsson

Thank you for joining us today on our second quarter 2008 earnings call. We have put another strong quarter behind us with rental revenue growth of 5.3% for organic and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 46.1%.

The business environment is increasingly challenging, but we are growing our company over and above the underlying markets demonstrating strong execution of our business model with disciplined pricing, lower CapEx, and producing solid results. Our underlying free cash flow generating capabilities are very strong and will be realized progressively through the year.

Looking forward to what might be a more challenging environment, we will continue to adhere to our strategy of focusing on rental rates, high utilization, profit margins, and free cash flow. Furthermore, we are adapting our cost structure ahead of time as great companies do and we will continue to raise the bar for lower performing stores.

We believe our flexible business model and strategy will deliver industry-leading results at any point in the cycle and create shareholder value. We look forward to reporting back to you next quarter with our business results.

We appreciate your interest and support. So thank you very much and have a great evening, everyone.

That concludes today’s call.

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