• A new study cited by HSBC finds that 74% of companies report positive returns from generative AI (GenAI), challenging a widely circulated earlier claim that 95% saw no ROI.
  • HSBC analyst Yuning Bai argues the previous, more pessimistic figure from July was based on weak data, while the latest Wharton-GBK study offers more reliable evidence of tangible gains.
  • The findings suggest that corporate AI investments are delivering measurable productivity and performance improvements, potentially mitigating fears of an overhyped "AI bubble."

New research highlighted by HSBC is pushing back against a growing narrative that corporate investments in artificial intelligence are failing to deliver. According to a recent study, a significant majority of companies—74%—are now reporting positive returns from their generative AI initiatives. This stands in stark contrast to a figure that gained traction over the summer, which suggested a staggering 95% of AI projects saw no return on investment.

HSBC's analyst Yuning Bai has been vocal in critiquing the earlier, more pessimistic data point, which originated from a July report. In conversations with clients and in internal commentary, Bai has characterized that finding as based on "weak data" that exaggerated market fears. The new analysis, now in its third iteration from Wharton-GBK, is presented as a more methodologically sound counterpoint, providing what the bank sees as credible evidence that AI deployments are bearing fruit.

"Measuring AI success is complex and sensitive to methodology," said a person familiar with HSBC's research team's thinking. "The earlier figure created a simplified, and arguably misleading, picture. The reality on the ground, as this newer study shows, is that many enterprises are already seeing tangible productivity and performance gains."

The shift in data comes at a critical time for the financial sector's view on technology spending. With global economic uncertainties persisting, as reflected in HSBC's own recent quarterly results which showed profit before tax of $7.3 billion for 3Q25, banks and investors are scrutinizing capital allocation more closely. The notion of an "AI bubble"—where hype outpaces real economic value—has been a topic of intense debate in boardrooms and trading floors. HSBC's emphasis on this more positive ROI study can be seen as an effort to inject nuance into that conversation, suggesting the investment thesis for AI is fundamentally sound for a broad swath of adopters.

While the study offers a bullish signal, HSBC's own financial trajectory remains cautiously managed. The bank recently reported controlling operating expense growth to about 3% for 2025, linked to ongoing reorganization plans. Its leadership continues to execute a strategy focused on core markets like Wealth management and Corporate & Institutional Banking, areas where efficient technology adoption is key. The positive AI data aligns with this broader focus on productivity and strategic investment.

Attempts to reach other analysts for immediate comment on the study's implications were unsuccessful late Wednesday. The findings, however, are likely to fuel further discussion as more firms report on their digital transformation journeys in the coming earnings season. For now, HSBC is leveraging the data to argue that the fear of a widespread AI investment bust may be overblown, pointing instead to a landscape where a clear majority of companies are already navigating a path to value.